/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>9188824
In the back of my head I think: "we've never had legit capitulation" so that maintains a fear in my heart that a crash is always around the corner. On the other hand I think that crypto has a legitimate future and we're just getting started so BTC to 36k could be on the table.

I've stopped trying to predict the market and just react to it. I can trade in bull and bear markets so whatever.

>>9188866
There are many deluded crypto enthusiasts who will NEVER capitulate (like me). Even every shitcoin going to 0$ and btc being 100$ EOY will not make me capitulate. I'd wager I'm not the only one.

>>9188824
I feel we've opened the Pandora's box desu.
Next 20 years will be insane.
I will hodl for +/- 10 fucking years.
35 yo, made it, $50k in crypto atm.
But I think we'll see some serious shit in the next 5 years.

>>9188903
>Enthusiasts
But yeah, will hodl till I make it or meet Soros in hell.

>>9188824
Please let it happen

I will dump on the normies so hard

if regulators come hard on washtrading and tether or we get sec and cftc monitored exchange (nasdaq probably) then i don't see btc pumping like 2017 anymore

>>9189141
There are literally thousands of crypto exchanges operating in the world, including fully decentralized ones. If any of those things happen, people will just move to other exchanges based in countries with no regulation. There's really no way any government can regulate this short of shutting down the entire internet.

>>9188824
>Please tell me what you think
>our scrap bots don't work well enough to extract accurate data
OP is a faggot

>>9188829
If we are on this pic then we are on the pattern of 2013-05-28, check it out, more room to go down

>>9188903
This. I think crypto people are way more willing to ride to 0 than stock market goys are.

>>9190149
By orders of magnitude, for sure

>>9189257
They can certainly make it much more difficult and really hinder price action though

It literally always goes up. Except for when it goes down, obviously. But after it goes down you know it will go up.

>>9191247
this

>>9190082
who cares? remember what happened 2013-11? you willing to take the chance of missing that?

>>9190149
it's not that we're willing to ride it to 0, its that 0 is a VERY VERY VERY LONG WAYS AWAY when you got in at $250, or $13, or $4

>>9188903

Deluded NEETS are the FED of crypto, the buyer of last resort lmao

>>9191285
jesus that's horrifying. thank god for panama or the carribean would be ruined

>>9188829
>regency bias: the image

>>9188824
>>9188829
>>9188840
>>9188851
Ahhg, if I believed in TA alone I'd be way on board with this notion
But my gut tells me there is fear right around the corner and that we're going down

What doooooooooo?

>>9191927
fear of what? seems to be nothing but positive news.

>>9191322
I work in crypto, this market is pure shit full of scammers. The same guys that were scamming people on the internet in the 90-2000s, the same guys that were selling housing during the housing bubble, you now find them in crypto. Cryptography is great (I'm a mathematician) of course, but 99% of the people do not care about cryptography and privacy since they openly share everything on the web anyway.

Bitcoin is a great experiment but it is failing (relative to 4 years ago when adoption had better growth), what is going to happen now is wall street will step in and eat everyone's lunch and then just leave the market and move on. We might never see 20k again, best chance we have at seeing 20k is if we hang above 3k until 2020 for the halving

>>9188866
I agree to some extent

>>9188824
Where can I find this chart? I couldn't find at the guy's profile.

>>9192158
What is your basis for these claims?

>>9192158
Also for anyone expecting big institutional money, big institutional money will only come:
1- once its fully regulated
2- once they dealt with the rumors of bitfinex/tether/wash trading and manipulation
3-if the prices are low.

Yes you might see big money entering right now but its not institutions its rich guys willing to gamble so they buy OTC, however you have to remember that for an OTC trade for every buyer there is a seller and the new buyers are much more susceptible to NOT be "hodlers" (fuck that word) since they only came to speculate and are not cyberphunk that fell in love with the idea of bitcoin. Those speculators only want to make money and when they see it not happening the chance of them panicking and selling on an exchange is much higher.

I'm expecting the coin circulation to go up (less hodlers) mainly because of altcoins. More circulating traded supply = move velocity = harder to pump

>>9192216
which one, I made multiple claims

>>9192285
I’d appreciate if you’d elaborate on everything you said

>>9188851
Let me fix that for you.

>>9189257
>There are literally thousands of crypto exchanges operating in the world, including fully decentralized ones
You obviously missed my point by a mile because it's not about shutting down anything
All of this thousand exchanges together have less BTC\USD volume than any exchange from top 5 and most importantly they don't have margin, so they are absolutely irrelevant
What i'm saying is that monitored and regulated exchanges will be treated as gold standard, and obviously no one will be able to washtrade, fake volume or orderbook or use funny money to pump

>>9191247
Yea but then what if it comes back down?

>>9192369
Post the link, broseph

>>9192324
I'm too busy to elaborate on EVERYTHING I said but if you have any question just ask.

Also think about this, the reason why bitcoin went on a parabolic run starting september is because people didn't know about it, they learned about it, "oh this sounds interesting, its new to me, its exciting, I'm an early investor of my entourage doesn't know about it" so they rushed and market bought at whatever price, thats how you end up with total brainlet buying your bags at 13/15/19k.

And now everyone is sitting behind his computer thinking a parabolic bullrun will start so they either already bought in or are waiting for 12/13k to buy back in. Who will be buying your bags at 18/19k or at 22k now since everyone is ready and tuned in. If there is another parabolic bullrun it will be after capitulation and when people almost forget about bitcoin

>>9192528
here you go

>>9188829
Also in this pic there is no reason why your triangle couldn't be during summer 2017 when the price crashed pre-hard fork and now we would be in the big correction

>>9192540
>everyone is sitting behind his computer
You work in crypto so you have a biased worldview. Everybody interested in crypto in december is gone already, they lost their money and deleted their blockfolio. They'll be back when the bull run starts sure, but whoever is still here on biz is an autistic neet. Also, the belief that 'everyone knows about crypto' is plain wrong. Most people have a vague idea that bitcoin exists but know nothing about altcoins. And most people have never invested any money in the market. The market cap listed on CMC is just plain wrong, there isn't 400 billion USD in this market, there's probably less than 40.

>>9192268
I always thought this was interesting timing.
of course they wanted it cheaper, and can afford the fud campaigns

https://cointelegraph.com/news/another-fud-string-to-jp-morgan-bow-governments-will-ban-bitcoin-mike-bell

then...

https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-unlikely-to-disappear-says-internal-report-attributed-to-jp-morgan

>>9192628

My most normie friends know about crypto and put money/ wanted to put money ( i told them they will get burned so lots of them didnt). My smartest friend that had btc for years sold at 16k and moved on.

>>9191401
do you mean recency bias?

>>9192722
Is it too late to invest in crypto right now?

>>9192722
Normies don’t know shit about SmartContracts and DAOs. This was technological equivalent of Steam-Powered shit Wagon being compared to a horse. The SC bubble has the potential of the greatest tranfer of wealth in human history. Banks are the techlogical equivalent to horses if they don’t adopt crypto fintech they will be replaced by it

Down. The next year will look much like 2014, a slow bleed until people stop giving a shit altogether.

>>9192540
There is some truth to this, but you have to realize that this same thing happens every bubble. That's the whole point - The bubble *happens* because everyone had time to forget the last one, slowly bleed out, eventually lose interest or cut their losses, which for some stubborn fomo'ers takes a couple years. Then it all happens again.
There is "This time is different" sentiment every. single. time. And the same thing plays out, every. single. time.

This is also the reason my current sentiment is pic related, and reply related:
>>9192369

>>9190073
>>-191%

>>9193059
?

>>9192999
wrong

PAST WONT PREDICT THE FUTUREEEEEEEEEEEEE

We might go sideways or down for a while before any real action happens.
Still I don't think it's going to dump that much.
There's a lot of money invested in this by the Chinks and their mining operations are going to take a hit if they dump this under 6k.

>>9193150
difficulty will correct and it will remain just as profitable should that happen

>>9192897
First of all you don't INVEST in crypto, only moment when crypto was an investment was when btc was below 800 or so even lower.

Now is it too late to speculate at those prices, if you know how to trade obv crypto is an amazing opportunity but you need to adapt your style and risk management.

Now for a buy and hold strategy long only I think at those prices its still a gamble, just dollar cost average at starting at 6k, the put the rest at 5 /4/3k. At those prices you are gettint a better deal and your odds of making money are way better. If we dont drop to those prices and below then just Wait until good stocks are done correcting and buy some, thats an investment

>>9193300
Why do you think it will hit 3/4k? I believe 6k is plausible, but 4 seems quite low

Oh Anons, i wish you know how things really are. Don't let your guard down, what you are thinking is what is wanted to be thought.

>>9193342
Both crypto bubbles so far on the scale that we saw this winter, namely the one in 2011 and the one in 2013, have bottomed out afterwards at 15% of ATH or less. Extrapolated to the most recent ATH that would indicate we will see $3000 or less.

>>9193342
3k is low in your mind because of the 20k top. But relative to where btc was in the start of 2017 ( below 1k) , 3k is fucking high. And if anything the fundamentals for btc are worse now than start or 2017: bch competitor, people rather put their money in altcoins since they only care about gainz, higher fees, slower network, community split regarding scaling debate. The only thing that btc has going for it is the possible institutional money coming in. And yes institutions qre interested but they probably wont buy your bags at 9k ro above.

>>9193603
I suppose this is a fair assessment. Then again, though, you could make this same argument at any point in time, and there isn't necessarily a reason that we have to hit that 15% mark.

Was it really 15%, by the way? Can you cite that? I remember it being bad but not that bad. Maybe 20-30% from my recollection

>>9193703
Whoops, re: 15% was supposed to be aimed at >>9193431

>>9188851
lol thats my screenshot, cant even remember where i posted it

>>9193743
bull run confirmed

>>9193703
>>9193711

>Was it really 15%, by the way? Can you cite that? I remember it being bad but not that bad. Maybe 20-30% from my recollection

Just look at the charts.

The 2011 bubble was a high of ~33 and low of ~2 = only 6% of ATH: https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2011-05-31zeg2012-01-02ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

2013 bubble was a high of ~1100 and low of ~170 = 15% of AtH: https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceUSD#rg60zczsg2013-11-01zeg2015-02-13ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

>a thread full of nonsense samefag bears posting via vpn

>>9193887
>6%
>15%
low of 37.5% confirmed

>>9193918
Post your assessment, fren

>>9193985
this would put us right around 6-7k btw, which we touched a few times already

not meaningful but fun to speculate