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9087056 No.9087056 [Reply] [Original]

Tomorrow, the difficulty will rise another 10%, making mining 10% less profitable for at least two weeks.
It is 8.2 times higher than it was last year at the time.

If you mine at about $0.08 electricity costs, your break-even is at $3k.
It will rise to $3.3k

$0.11 per kw/h? $4100 rises to $4510
$0.14 per kw/h? $5250 rises to $5775
$0.17 per kw/h? $6320 rises to $6952
$0.20 per kw/h? $7450 rises to $8195

Nobody mines to secure the network, the miners want the rewards, which they want to sell for cash.

Will it get ugly tomorrow? No, most likely not.
Will we witness a rektening this year? Hell yeah!

>> No.9087079

>>9087056
That means miners will set a higher floor, which leads to nothing else than a rise in btc value what we have seen in the last few days

>> No.9087080

>increased costs of production means price will go down and miners will panic dump

>> No.9087082

>Will it get ugly tomorrow?
>no
We will see
>Will we witness a rektening this year?
Yes, we have to deal with a new species in crypto. Old money, they like to buy cheap

>> No.9087097

>>9087079
>That means miners will set a higher floor
Cost of production do not equal value.
If you think otherwise, I would like to offer you a piece of shit I produced after eating a $80-steak yesterday.

>> No.9087099

>>9087056
This is seriously the most retarded shit I've ever read

If you think any miner producing any serious amount of coin hasn't already projected difficulty increases and factored it into their cost model, you are beyond deluded. This will cause the price to go up if anything. Simple economics.

>> No.9087117

>>9087079
Basically what you define as "floor" is not a floor, but a ramshackle roof that collapses, as soon as you set your feet on it.

>> No.9087120

>>9087080

yeah sure, miners are impulsive dumb-asses that cannot think long term

>> No.9087129

>>9087097
Who said anything about value? We are discussing equilibrium price. Pls take econ 101 if you think increased costs of production will cause miners to drop the price.

>> No.9087138

>>9087099
>If you think any miner producing any serious amount of coin hasn't already projected difficulty increases and factored it into their cost model, you are beyond deluded.
So you think they predict the future? Funny.

>>9087099
>This will cause the price to go up if anything. Simple economics.
See >>9087097 - cost of producing does not equal value.

>> No.9087139

>>9087120
I was making fun of OP. He seems to think that miners will be surprised by difficulty adjustment and panic dump.

>> No.9087144

>>9087117

it the the moment hodl sets in with the miners

after weak hands are shaken out it reverses

>> No.9087150

>>9087097
>he thinks miners don't control this trash volume market
Newsflash, retard. It's beneficial for them to mine at lower price, because the difficulty is lower as well. They can sell proceedings when the price rises.

>> No.9087167

>>9087138
>So you think they predict the future?
They certainly know a lot more about industry-wide hashrate, ASIC miner supply and difficulty adjustment algorithms and can predict future difficulty more accurately than you.

>See >>9087097 - cost of producing does not equal value.
Equilibrium price has nothing to do with 'value' you absolute brainlet. Holy shit this board is terrible.

>> No.9087189

Coretards 101: Literally every scenario possible = good for Bitcoin
The absolute state of Bitcoiners

>> No.9087203
File: 57 KB, 600x600, 1508729826113.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9087203

>>9087189
>econ 101 is too hawd so uhbhbmm take t-that ccoretawds

>> No.9087243

>>9087129
>Who said anything about value? We are discussing equilibrium price.

An equilibrium price cannot hold, if the amount of buyers is not enough to buy the amount of new BTC comming into the market.
The higher the price, the less buyers are interested.
The less buyers, the more they are forced to lower the price.
If the price goes below b/e, they are not profitable.

If they then stop mining to lower the diff, they have to fear others with lower electricity costs expand their operations, basically taking their place (centralization *wink wink*).
If they continue mining, they run in the risk of paying more than they get.
If they continue to sell, they put pressure on the price.
If they hold, they cannot pay their obligations.

THIS is basic economics, not the bullshit you pull out of your ass.

>> No.9087255

>>9087056
Is this a subtle shill for Bcash?

>> No.9087285

>>9087243
>>9087243
Less difficulty -> Less Bitcoin produced -> Supply curve shifts left -> Higher eq. price

This isn't hard mate.

>> No.9087299

>>9087285
Higher difficulty*

>> No.9087342

>>9087285

WTF, block reward is the same regardless.

Block time will vary.

Mining is what untimely gives BTC its value.

Just like gold.

You buy that peace of yellow metal from me or you go mine it yourself see how much it is.

>> No.9087467

>>9087150
>It's beneficial for them to mine at lower price, because the difficulty is lower as well.
The diff stays like this for 2016 blocks.
They have to mine for at! least! two weeks.
The longer this period goes, the longer the time - 10% decrease means 15.4 days mining instead of 14.


>They can sell proceedings when the price rises.
For this, it needs to rise. If it does not, they sit on stuff they "produced" and cannot sell, as it is worth less than they paid for.

>>9087285
>Less difficulty -> Less Bitcoin produced -> Supply curve shifts left -> Higher eq. price
This assumption would hold, if the amount of BTC produced would be dependent on the number of miners. Unfortunately, it is not designed this way.

>> No.9087514

>>9087467

The absolute state of mining.

Best thing ever. So many mechanism for self regulation. Crypto will prevail. Crypto that has its own hash rate that is.

Stakers BTFO.

>> No.9087625
File: 5 KB, 271x186, 79456007196.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
9087625

>>9087342
>Mining is what untimely gives BTC its value.

May I offer you a pile of well formed excrements, which originated from a very expensive piece of meat?

Only eaten once, unique in consistence and color. Also, the DNA within is a mixture of two seperate spiecies - one was a expensive bull, who flew all the way from Japan to Europe. There, I (the humble producer) transformed a piece of said bull within my body and added my own DNA (purely aryan blood, I have certificates) via normal biological processes, to create this masterpiece.

Only $50, shipping included.

>> No.9087649

>>9087056
We pay 2 cents per kWh... so sorry bud we aren't going anywhere.

You are listing residential electricity costs, when any smart miner is in an industrial zoned property paying cheap electricity

>> No.9087766

>>9087625

sure, but so can Jamal offer the same pile. And Jamal will also rill me for free.

So I will buy his pile.

When the result of your activity is precious metal or precious number you can charge more.

>> No.9087901

>>9087056
You're too optimistic OP. The rektening will be worse than you think and come quicker.

>> No.9088214

>>9087649
>We pay 2 cents per kWh... so sorry bud we aren't going anywhere.

Which is not the majority. Also: good luck marketing "decentralization" to the normies, when all mining power is in a handfull mining operators.

>>9087901
>The rektening will be worse than you think.
I already assume the worst.

>and come quicker
Elaborate.

>> No.9088296

>>9087056
Noice FUD, you fucking retard. This is always the case of BTC the miners are the only way new coins enter circulation. They control the supply, the price will just have to rise for it to be profitable. Fucking brainlet.

>> No.9088354
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9088354

>>9088296
>the price will just have to rise for it
Quick question:

What
if
it
does
not
?

>> No.9088776

Jesus fucking christ this board. Have any of you faggots studied economics?

>> No.9088800

>>9088354
miners are rich enough to pump it, they made a fortune at ATH

>> No.9088911

>>9088776
>muh economics

Yep - it's bullshit that doesn't take realities like washtrading chinks with billions into account. Same reason using some TA etc works so well - it's such a manipulated market it's trivial to trade it profitably so "random walk" is the noob-tier meme here. Fuck your economics nigger.

>> No.9088917
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9088917

>>9087097
>>9087625

You are actually retarded if you think comparing your shit to bitcoin is a good analogy.
You lost any credibility there.
If we were to shit gold it would be worthless you brainlet.
Go take your shit to the street.

>> No.9088925
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9088925

>>9088800
If you think profits are made to artificially inflate prices at unreasonable high prices, you just proved to be as stupid as the average BTC-maximalist.

>> No.9088938

>everyone calling each other a brainlet
good thread

>> No.9088976

>>9088925
Do not underestimate the power of Bitmain, I would never short them.

>> No.9089004

>>9088938
I've never actually seen an intelligent person call someone else a brainlet/retard, they could always argue their point without insults. They're the favorite words of bottomfeeders though.

>> No.9089051

>>9088976
Of course Bitmain could at least temporarily manipulate the price up to 25k or so.
The question is why they would do it - the Bitmain executives don't want to use their profits to pump BTC, they want to use their profits to buy lambos.
Pumping and dumping also isn't really an option for them, as thousands of bagholders will dump onto them as soon as the price hits 15k or so.

>> No.9089110

>>9088917
>Literally not understanding shit
Point is: if I enter something valuable into a process, that is expensive but renders the input useless or speculative, does not mean that the output is worth anything.

Another allegory:
You throw your PC to a scrap press. The PC is worth $500 and the operation of using the press costs you about $10 in time, energy, space etc.
After doing this, you do not end up with electrical scrap worth $510. Only if you sell it to others as art or if people speculate on the value of electrical scrap going parabolic, you will achieve a price above its value as electrical scrap.

Now replace "your PC" with "electricity" and "scrap press" with "mining".

>>9088976
>Do not underestimate the power of Bitmain, I would never short them.
Shorting a manipulated market is as dangerous as going long, the last months showed that pretty good. I took my profits in december and wait for the market to come to its senses.

>>9089051
>they want to use their profits to buy lambos
Hammer --> Nail. You got it.