/biz/ - Business & Finance

All together now:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I just looked in their yearly report.
All of north america is only 5,2% of their sales.
They only make money off their luxury cars anyway. Price dropped 20%. Fear rules the market.
I just fucking bought it.

t. Jew living in Hanover, Germany where they make the commercial vehicles.

>>900772
the referenced article claims VW might also need to pay up to $18 bil in fines - you sure the stock has bottomed out?

>>900776
They could just pull back from the american market and sell their assets. It's 20% stateowned anyway.

>U.S. officials said Volkswagen violated two parts of the federal Clean Air Act and could face fines of as much as $37,500 per car, or more than $18 billion. It remained unclear whether the government would seek such an onerous penalty.
>as much as
Since VW has lawyers it won't be that much.

>>900762
I drive a VW
Proud

>>900780
Probably less ~$3-5bn + shit associated with class action lawsuits +X
Total cost probably between 4 and 6 billion.

At the moment VW 's valuation is only 1.8 that of Tesla Motors. ($61 bn vs $33 bn)

This is almost too good to be true. VW is a massively powerful company and extremely successful, it now has a P/E of 6. Holy shit any retard can see that this is massively oversold. If VW were cheating then allot of other companies were too. This is the greatest buying opportunity of the year.

>>900999
my bank tells me the PE is 7,1558 but whatever it's all normal in germany

>>900780
>>900999
You feel there won't be any collateral besides the EPA fine, like lawsuits from customers, people with lung diseases etc? Some Audi models were affected as well, so that brand image might get tainted also.
I also like the idea of going long VOW at some point, just not so certain now is the right time.

>>900999
All of those brands are of the same owner?
>>901038
How do you know when is time to buy, are you a wizard?

>>901118
>he doesn't have an orb of scrying

>>900817

time to buy vw

Jew here again, sold at a profit. Have fun trading!

gg wp to everyone who shorted at the top

>>901163
Bought again this morning...

It's gappeneing again, buy everything another -20%!

>>901692
>stock down another 20%
>11 million cars worldwide affected
how do you feel now?
Every nation with a car industry is going to fuck VW.

>>901753
execpt the legislation says "at the time of testing"

if the us pushes to hard they will get fucked back harder
if the us lushes too hard they will get fucked

in for a starter position at 107

>>901753
i feel great because i bought every fuggin dip :^)

>>901761
Nice

>>900772
That was a horrible bet. Amateurs like you shouldn't play this game to be frank.

>>901788
Love that Bora
>>901789
It just werks

>>900772
i have just bought, too. im a little scared but i think its gonna be profitable. im also holding continental but im not gonna rebuy, because im waiting to see what schaeffler is doing, they are gonna be affected by this as well and they want to go public very soon.

>>901797
Just be patient and BTFD

>>900762
How to invest in VW?

Remainder that BP never recovered after oil spill in 2008, so I don't know what you retards hope to accomplish now buying this shit.

Anybody manage to short them?

>>901867
>citing an oil company when crude is near it's floor
/biz/ pls
Also, this chart shows multiple cases where broadcasting a simple entry and exit could have net 20%-40% gains easy, just by following markets.
Whether or not VW continues to fall, there will definitely be some rebounds on the way.

>>901876
>there will definitely be some rebounds on the way
>I can time the market and can definitely catch those

>>901887
teach us by posting your portfolio

>>901118
Rather sure they're all owned by the VW group.

Interesting that Platinum is getting some contaigon here down 3% on the day. Primary demand is in catalytic converters for diesel (Palladium is for gas engines)

Ahh the same slow and steady rising movement as yesterday. Lets see how greedy I get...

What no one is mentioning is people like these cars. They still get ~40mpg and everyone I know who has one loves it.

>>901930
20% stateowned and creating jobs in murica
come on

>>901935
You could make the same argument for coal. Obama doesn't give a fuck. Think about all the jobs at the magic electricity factories that will replace them.

>>900999
>falling for the peak earnings trap

The auto cycle is at its highs right now. When the next major downturn comes, profit is going to plunge like it always does at cyclical car companies.

>>901956
VW stock price was 250, now its 100.

>>900772
This has little to do with the american market.

German, Korean, etc (all but Chinese cuz they don't drive diesel at all) have said they would conduct similar investigations. This could be a huge legal deal. I'm sure consumers won't care much but fines could easily run into the tens of billions.

I drive a (european) Passat 2.0 B8 so enjoy inhaling my toxic fumes.

Good part is that Volkswagen has 18 billion in spare cash lying around. They were a really attractive share, but with the cash buffer gone that could be a different story.

>>900999
P/E doesn't really matter as the E part will drop drastically after this.

I agree that it could soon be a good buying moment, but not before this falling knife is caught by other, more retarded investors like you.

>>901867
Different story as crude dropped rock bottom the last 6 months. We don't expect that to happen to cars unless you're a wizard who's going to have flying brooms take over the world next year. Are you?

>>901930
It's not about the sales. VW will be fine on the long term. The uncertainty is killing the price right now as the fines could go from a few billion to tens of billions.

>>901989

They won't be compelled to pay the fine. It's just like the case of the $1B fine Credit Agricole had to pay for breaching Iran sanctions. There was never any obligation to pay it, they just weren't allowed do business in the US until they did. Now CA had huge amounts of it's operations in the US so it made sense to pay the fine and get on with it.

The US only represents a very small share of VW's market and they have been shifting focus to China for ages. They might just ignore the fine for now and re-enter the American market at a later date when it is economically viable.

>>900762
Should I get VW stocks right now?

LOL

>>902066
I am thinking the same thing...

The retards buying VW crack me up. "This'll all blow over." LMFAO.

You don't intentionally violate US law, intentionally defraud US consumers, and intentionally pollute the US environment and get nailed to the fucking cross. And because VW voluntarily came into the US markets, they can't run back to Germany and bunker down. They've submitted to jurisiction of US lawmakers and US courts, and will be spending a lot of time with both in the next 10 years.

The consumer fraud verdicts will be in the tens of billions. Then will come the diminution in value verdicts, since the cars are now worth thousands less than before. That's tens of billions. Then the lawyers will get really creative! I can't wait until the first billion dollar emotional distress verdict comes in favor of the hippy who cried thought he was driving a clean diesel. Tens and tens of billions.

By the way, we haven't even started with the shareholder class actions. You think shareholders like losing 40% due to the intentional actions of management? That's tens, maybe hundreds, of billions in judgments on its own.

I wonder if the US government will be motivated to prosecute this fully? Maybe, but only if there was a powerful, well-funded lobby that would benefit from VW's downfall. Maybe a lobby like ... US auto manufacturers? Do those guys hold any sway in politics? Surely the US government wouldn't go out of its way to do something that helps the US auto industry. That would be unprecedented.

All this, and the morons here are tripping over themselves to catch a falling knife. Biz never fails to disappoint.

The retards buying VW crack me up. "This'll all blow over." LMFAO.

You don't intentionally violate US law, intentionally defraud US consumers, and intentionally pollute the US environment and not get nailed to the fucking cross. And because VW voluntarily came into the US markets, they can't run back to Germany and bunker down. They've submitted to jurisdiction of US lawmakers and US courts, and will be spending a lot of time with both in the next 10 years.

The consumer fraud verdicts will be in the tens of billions. Then will come the diminution in value verdicts, since the cars are now worth thousands less than before. That's tens of billions. Then the lawyers will get really creative! I can't wait until the first billion dollar emotional distress verdict comes in favor of the hippy who cried because he thought he was driving a clean diesel. Tens and tens of billions.

By the way, we haven't even started with the shareholder class actions. You think shareholders like losing 40% due to the intentional actions of management? That's tens, maybe hundreds, of billions in judgments on its own.

I wonder if the US government will be motivated to prosecute this fully? Maybe, but only if there was a powerful, well-funded lobby that would benefit from VW's downfall. Maybe a lobby like ... US auto manufacturers? Do those guys hold any sway in politics? Surely the US government wouldn't go out of its way to do something that helps the US auto industry. That would be unprecedented.

All this, and the morons here are tripping over themselves to catch a falling knife. Biz never fails to disappoint.

>>902117
>You don't intentionally violate US law, intentionally defraud US consumers, and intentionally pollute the US environment and not get nailed to the fucking cross.

This is the most naive thing I've ever read. The Government does this on a regular basis.

>>902066
>>902073
You guys know what happened right?

>>902120
Did you really just post that comment? The government has immunity from prosecution for virtually all wrong acts. VW does not.

Jesus. Biz never fails to disappoint. Again.

>>901797
here, im up 4.02%

>>902117

How much money does VW have then? Are they going to be able to survive losing all of that?

Maybe it'd be better to go for alternative auto-makers who stand to gain from the bloodbath. Ford and Chrysler? Wish I knew more about the different auto titans.

>>902130
The stocks from VW are crashing and they have to pay a shit ton of money, but they will recover pretty fast. They have the money to pay the fine. Also, It's not like the cars would be shit. They are actually pretty great and reliable, there is only this one innuendo in America. They will recover pretty fast and the stocks will rise soon. In a week, maybe two.

Pretty interesting that this should come out right as the Frankfurt Auto Show is going on.

The way I see it; VW still makes quality cars that are loved all around the world. VW still has the same infrastructure and the same know how as before. Nothing really changed on the capability of VW to produce cars. They didn't make bad business decisions or lost any popularity so far.

Yes they cheated a little with their air pollution tests. But lets be honest here, nobody gives a shit, especially not the burgers. Sure there will be a lawsuit and there will be a harsh price to pay. But it most certainly won't bankrupt this company. I can't imagine that the Mutti Merkel would ever allow that. People in germany would go ballistic over this.

There are two factors that keep me from buying right now:
1. I think chances are still quite good for a black swan event this autumn. Car companies suffer from these events.
2. It's extremely difficult to find the bottom on this bitch. The stocks could be slumbering for years until all the lawsuit's are trough. Otherwise you are always risk that new facts will further decrease the price.

I think a good comparison would be Toyota with their break scandal. Does anyone remember how this played out in stock prices? But lets not forget, this was a huge safety problem, not just some hippy bullshit.

>>902239
>They didn't make bad business decisions or lost any popularity so far.
Kek.

>they cheated a little
Kek.

>nobody gives a shit, especially not the burgers
Kek.

>break scandal
Kek.

Lulziest post of the day. Comedy gold.

>>902255
Well, imagine the company of your favorite car did this. Would you still want to buy the car? No? Maybe if it's 5% off, or 10% even 20%? Just think about it. They might even end up selling more cars, because of the sale and all the "publicity".

We have had many other cases, where big companies dramatically endagered the lives of their customers. Just think pharma, chemistry, fracking or what went down with the colorade river. This little pollution thing literally is peanuts. Nobody beside some green party members will give any actually shit.

>>902296
Fuck off, fanboi. We're trying to have legitimate business and economic discussions here. Get your ass to >>>/o/ if you want to fap to your car waifu.

>>902381
I'm 36 and I have never owned a car. I have no use for them, cause I always drink when I go out.

I'm somewhat interested in self driving cars, but this is still a thing from the kinda far future.

I was just trying to explain how the herd thinks, I have no personal bias when it comes to automobiles.

>>902407
>I'm 36 and I have never owned a car.
Cringe.

>I have no personal knowledge when it comes to automobiles.
FTFY.

>>902381
First you call me a car fanboy, then you insult me because I never owned a car and thus can't have any knowledge about cars. And then you have the nerve to tell me that you want to have a
>legitimate business and economic discussions here
ha!

Nevermind, I just stated my opinion. I humbly accept that you have another one. But I think your ad hominems aren't really helping the discussion.

I would still be interested in where you see VW in lets say 5 years, 10 years and 20 years. I think you wish that this will be a dead sentence for the company, because you believe in justice and such. But do you really think that this will kill VW for good and the whole German economy with it?

>>902453
>dead sentence
Jesus man, stop! The comedy flows like water.

No, this will not kill VW. No, this will not kill the German economy. I never made any such claims.

What I said (quite clearly) is that people like you who dismiss this as "no big deal" are massively underestimating the potential impact on the company for the next decade. While this is a U.S.-only problem now, you do know that we're not the only country with emission standards, right? And if VW exceeded U.S. standards by 40 times, doesn't it stand to reason that they violated a bunch of other countries regulations too, even if they were more lax than the U.S.?

Also, your ridiculous comment that people "like VW" has no basis in fact. The populace doesn't like being lied to. VW tauted the TDI as "clean diesel" and people bought the cars in reliance on that statement. Now, it turns out the emissions are at planet-killer levels, and suddenly every TDI car in the world is worth thousands less than it was a week ago. That's hundreds of billions of wealth taken from the common man. So, no, people aren't going to quickly forgive that.

As for the vast percentage of the U.S. who neither own VW nor slurp at their teat like you? Well, we don't like cheaters. Think the Patriots are beloved nationally? Guess again. Even worse, its a foreign company intentionally cheating Uncle Sam and polluting our kids. That shit will love on in angry Facebook posts for years.

All I'm saying is that you need to get your head out of your ass and recognize the facts for what they are. Anyone touching this stock with a 10 foot pole is asking for a "dead sentence" (to quote some idiot on the internet).

>>902453
>dead sentence
Jesus man, stop! The comedy flows like water.

No, this will not kill VW. No, this will not kill the German economy. I never made any such claims.

What I said (quite clearly) is that people like you who dismiss this as "no big deal" are massively underestimating the potential impact on the company for the next decade. While this is a U.S.-only problem now, you do know that we're not the only country with emission standards, right? And if VW exceeded U.S. standards by 40 times, doesn't it stand to reason that they violated a bunch of other countries regulations too, even if they were more lax than the U.S.?

Also, your ridiculous comment that people "like VW" has no basis in fact. The populace doesn't like being lied to. VW tauted the TDI as "clean diesel" and people bought the cars in reliance on that statement. Now, it turns out the emissions are at planet-killer levels, and suddenly every TDI car in the world is worth thousands less than it was a week ago. That's hundreds of billions of wealth taken from the common man. So, no, people aren't going to quickly forgive that.

As for the vast percentage of the U.S. who neither own VW nor slurp at their teat like you? Well, we don't like cheaters. Think the Patriots are beloved nationally? Guess again. Even worse, its a foreign company intentionally cheating Uncle Sam and polluting our kids. That shit will live on in angry Facebook posts for years.

All I'm saying is that you need to get your head out of your ass and recognize the facts for what they are. Anyone touching this stock with a 10 foot pole is asking for a "dead sentence" (to quote some idiot on the internet).

>>902604
the autism in this post flows like water as well.

>>902626
reddit is over that way, chief. your kind not wanted here.

>>902604
Nobody bought a VW diesel because they ran forever and cost fuck all to fill up or buy?

>back to reddit
You're not funny and not smart, maybe just turn the computer off and kill yourself.

open will be gap down btw

VW boss Winterkorn stepped down, check your balances kids, if you bought, you're rich now.

>>902134
here again, up over 10% since i re-bought

>>903038
sell it nigger thats 10% 4free

>>902137
Ford makes sense, FCAU (Chrysler) on the other hand has always had some assretarded management that every time there is a scandal they manage to take some brunt of the hurt even if they are 100% irrelevant

>>902769
Right, the emissions may suck but their diesel models give the Prius a run for their money in terms of fuel economy. All for like 10,000 less.

Does this have anything to do with the high sulfur content in US diesel? I hear this is why most euro-diesels don't make it to the US. In which case, if we want to improve the emissions of our diesels, shouldn't we be improving the quality of the diesel fuel in the first place? Sure, V-dub did shitty things by cheating emissions tests but with how low quality US diesel is and how strict the emissions standards are on diesel cars, did they really have a choice?

Keep buying, fags. It's perfectly normal for the CEO of a major corporation to step down/be fired in the wake of a minor incident like this. Nothing to worry about.

>>903061
For years everyone is waiting for Winterkorn to step down...

>>903062
looks like someone is jelly he missed out on easy money

So, Piech-Porsche CEO when?

>>903063
Did you misquote or cant you read?
I did two positive trades and I'm in my third position right now.

>>903068
Denial: It's not just a river in Egypt.

>>903070
Stay mad you missed out :3

>>903068
i misquoted

Buy BMW instead.

>>902152
>actually pretty great and reliable, there is only this one innuendo in America.

hehehehhe, well now. it is become obvious that they did the same shit in the EU aswell, so that is still to come. also every VW owner, owning the series in question, has the right to sue VW for fraud. This is also something that still wasn't made a claim. They'll have to pay a shitload of money, money no car company has. $18Bill the US government is sueing them for is just the tip of the iceberg.

This is a BIG FUCKING FUCK UP. It is not about "burgers not giving shit" or "VW making good ol' nazi engineering" it is about having no means to defend against claims that will now be pending.

>>903071
No one cares about your small, short-term momentum trades. Any idiot can scalp a couple hundred bucks from day-trading a volatile stock if they guess correct. You'll just lose it all tomorrow, according to every statistical study of short-term trading ever.

The grown-ups in the thread are talking about real investing with real money. So fuck off with your kindergarten bullshit.

>>903092
>it is become obvious that they did the same shit in the EU aswell
no it hasn't. Just because they ship the same software worldwide doesn't mean it cheats on European emissions testing.

>>903096
>Just because they ship the same software worldwide doesn't mean it cheats on European emissions testing.

oxymoron. 11 milion cars with the engine EA 189 (engines in question) are sold around the world, all of them have that software issue. This issue does not differentiate between EU, USA, Japan, etc. emissions testing, it always does the same thing, namely when in test mode, it reduces the emission by (EPA says) 40% than what it actually emits on the street. France is urging the EU wide investigation on that matter, meaning that this is not over yet.

>>903102
>This issue does not differentiate between EU, USA, Japan, etc. emissions testing
[citation needed]

>>903109
>First, VW AG announced that “some 11 million vehicles” are affected by the scandal. Basically, 11 million vehicles world-wide with the EA189 TDI turbo-diesel engine have the software that was shown to cheat the U.S EPA emissions tests. The software detects when it’s being tested, this is also called “dyno mode” when the front wheels of the car are moving and the rear wheels are standing still. The bad part is the engine is working differently in this mode to expel lower emissions and pass the test.

>Of course, this mode is also active when you are undergoing an annual emission test procedure at your local testing center.

>This statement also says that VW AG set aside 6.5 Billion Eur or $7.3 Billion to address the problem resulting from this scandal.

>The EA189 TDI is the 2.0L four-cylinder engine which include the Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) technology. This software is also said to affect EA188 and the 2015 EA288 generation of the four-cylinder.

- TFL Car. 22 September 2015.

>>903114
How would they know how VW's software works? What's their source?
If it was that simple then the cars would also deliver lower horse power numbers on a dyno. I assume ECU tuners would have noticed this long ago.

>>903130
>How would they know how VW's software works? What's their source?

Well apparently, VW AG is their source, else it would be an infrigment.

Since testing for vehicles is often done on dynos, a test mode is necessary so that other safety features such as traction control and stability control do not kick in. While having a testing mode or dyno mode isn’t illegal or even misleading, Volkswagen’s version had its diesel engines perform differently than they would in the real world.

Essentially, when the vehicles were put into the dyno mode for testing, the engines were detuned to meet emissions targets. Once the vehicle was restarted and taken out of test mode, they emitted 40 times the federal standard of nitrogen oxide.

>>903134
VW hasn't release anything on how the system works. Even if that's how it works it doesn't answer the question whether it's the same in all markets. The software knows which market the vehicle has been sold in and could adjust accordingly.

The regulations on Diesel emissions are much more lenient in Europe so it's perfectly possible they don't deactivate the cheat mode in Europe.

>>903148
*don't activate the cheat mode

>>903148

Obviously not, USDM/EDM/JDM cars all have varying modifications to comply with the laws on different countries. US market VW's are made in Mexico, so it wouldn't be hard to implement the ECU testing detune on the US market only.

>>902117
except they did none of thr above. "at testing" as per the law, everything they claimed was accurate. its a poorly written law

>>903170
>everything they claimed was accurate
They claimed the car was legal to operate in the U.S. market. It's not.

Now shut up retard. Adults are speaking.

>>903170
>its a poorly written law
will be their only defence, and it will fail. everybody who bought VW good luck, everybody who didn't, watch it burn.

Which rival company will jump on this fuck up first?

>>903249
>>903093
>>903070
>>903061
>>902628
>>902604
>>902412
>>902381
>>902255
>>902133
>>902117
are autistic by any chance?

>>903307
Do you routinely pop into threads, discover that you don't understand the topic, feel ashamed about your mental (and possibly physical) inadequacies, and then post non sequitur insults?

>>903316
sorry ive got better things to do all day than spend time on 4chan you on the other hand dont so i dont really care about your opinion

How many volkswagen cars are there in the US? Do people expect to get a full refund even though the car performed as expected during many years without anyone noticing the cheats? Do you expect 100% of people to sue? Do you think the same thing has applied to europe and other markets?

I drive a vw passat b7 with this particular engine (belgium). Would i be able to get a full 45k refund if i sued? Would be nice to get a new b8 with the same toxic engine haha.

On a more serious note the above questions remain unanswered for now. Until we get more clarity investing in vw ag is just random speculation. Yes that might turn out well but it will be like being proud of throwing a 6 on a dice, as if skills caused it to happen.

If this blows over without more than 10 billion in total fines and image costs im personally convinced its worth buying vw as their products are amazingly reliable and high quality cars with above average fuel efficiency. On top of that they have over 18 billion of spare cash, low debt compared to bmw or daimler and the highest (though we need to wait the effects of this event) sales of any car brand.

Its not about being biased or a fanboy but buying volkswagen AG is literally like buying an ETF on cars as they have so many brands in every segment. Everyone on biz loves trackers so theres really little to argue about vw being the most diversified easy investment in the sector on the long term.

>>903338
>so i dont really care about your opinion
Really? You scoured the thread searching for my posts. I'd say the evidence suggests that you're quite interested in my opinions, if not outright obsessed with me.

If you want to be a tsundere little faggot, that's your business. Just keep your flirting reasonable, and be disappointed that you'll still be a kissless virgin when all is said and done. It's only 4chan; we can't work magic here.

By the way, you're two posts invested, and still contributed nothing on topic to the thread. Way to go champ.

>>903360
Car won't perform as well once the emissions fixes go in. That's damages. Car are worth less now then before the scandal. That's damages. Cars are not what was represented to the consumer. That's damages.

>I drive a vw passat b7 with this particular engine (belgium). Would i be able to get a full 45k refund if i sued?
No, you wouldn't get a refund. But some U.S. dealerships are already offering to buy back cars in a desperate effort to keep owner loyalty and avoid some litigation. You think dealerships would come out of pocket like this if they thought it wa going to "blow over."

People like you who under-estimate the seriousness of this debacle are going to be in for a rude awaking. All of the financial analysts are staying away from VW right now because we've no way of knowing how deep this hole might become.

>>903338
>so i dont really care about your opinion
Really? You scoured the thread searching for my posts. I'd say the evidence suggests that you're quite interested in my opinions, if not outright obsessed with me.

If you want to be a tsundere little faggot, that's your business. Just keep your flirting reasonable, and don't be disappointed that you'll still be a kissless virgin when all is said and done. It's only 4chan; we can't work magic here.

By the way, you're two posts invested, and still contributed nothing on topic to the thread. Way to go champ.

>>903360
Cars won't perform as well once the emissions fixes go in. That's damages. Cars are worth less now then before the scandal. That's damages. Cars are not what was represented to the consumer. That's damages.

>I drive a vw passat b7 with this particular engine (belgium). Would i be able to get a full 45k refund if i sued?
No, you wouldn't get a refund. But some U.S. dealerships are already offering to buy back cars in a desperate effort to keep owner loyalty and avoid some litigation. You think dealerships would come out of pocket like this if they thought it wa going to "blow over."

People like you who under-estimate the seriousness of this debacle are going to be in for a rude awaking. All of the financial analysts are staying away from VW right now because we've no way of knowing how deep this hole might become.

is it time to buy? it did go up 6.92% and i think it has potential to go up a bit more in the short term. thinking of dropping a few grand into it with 5x leverage and hold for a day or two

>>903377
>All of the financial analysts are staying away from VW right now
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/22/3-reasons-why-volkswagen-shares-are-a-buy.html

>>903377
Mate i dont know exactly what triggered you so much (perhaps the other poster you replied to) but by no means am i underestimating the consequences of these events, as shown in the multiple unanswered questions at the start of my post.

I am CFA certified, worked 3 years at a dutch private bank and have now moved over to a family office expanding into venture capital so i am one of those "financial analysts" you so randomly seem to quote, generalizing all of them.

Bloomberg and reuter eikon premium consensus is neutral right now by the way as just like me, most other real analysts dont pretend like they know whats going to happen, unlike you.

How will the cars perform less well once the emission fixes go in? Most of these cars are over 5 years old by now and have performed excellent over the lifetime of the car in every single measurable way. That means most of them have been writen off and will have literally 0 impact on a lot of european markets as company lease cars are much more the standard here. The sheer size of vw and the number of alternative engines available if for some reason this type is rendered completely illegal makes sure that there will always be nicely performing golfs, passats, a4's and the like available.

On top of that as some poster said earlier the vw cars on the us markets are made in mexico and could perhaps (again i dont know so i dont suggest to buy the stock)be the only versions doing badly. If its only the US market VW could literally repay every single one of those cars in full with the cash they have right now without having to increase their debt.

Tl;dr please stop trying to talk for "analysts" when you dont even have access to bloomberg terminals or reuters eikon data. You are simply lying here and calling everyone retarded while the truth is simple: no one right know can issue a solid buy OR sell advice on volkswagen as too many variables are unknown.

>>903397
Might as well put it all on red then. Stop loss at 5x leverage is way too tight to bet on considering current volatility.

>>903399
That's seekingalpha quality research right there. Good job anon.

>>903405
>most other real analysts dont pretend like they know whats going to happen, unlike you
Huh? Do you speak English?

All I've said this whole thread is that no one knows how bad it's going to be, and that people who dismiss the scandal as no big deal are missing the facts. The potential for this to be really, really bad is there.

Investment is about balancing risk and reward. There's a massive amount of risk surrounding this stock, and not enough reward to compensate you for shouldering that risk. That makes it a bad investment.

This is elementary stuff. I shouldn't have to explain it to someone who claims to have a professional degree.

>>903416
I speak english at a decent level for a non-native yes and i clearly read your post which, and i quote said "financial analysts are staying away from vw right now" which is an outright lie.

Theres a difference between not buying the stock right now and staying away from it. Most analysts ive spoken on bloomberg chat on the subject in the recent days would not sell their current position in vw at the current price.

So if you got fucked over when this all started, holding on to it for now is by consensus the best choice. Those arent my words, but those of your amazing analyst.

>>903093
ok

i hope you know that the patterns are mostly the same regardless of the time scale

>>901887
there is pretty much always more or less some rebound after large price movements. look at any chart of price movements, it goes up and down, up and down (or down and up, down and up) pretty much always

>>901867
that's still a massive short-term rebound

>>903433
I doubt you can currently predict this on a daily basis. Maybe you could in a market you know extremely well but right now no one knows exactly what the coming days will bring.

By no means does it have to recover the day after a sharp fall (as it didnt on the second day either). You could get stopped out if using leverage or lose your profits before being able to get out of your day trade.

If you like gambling and can spare the money theres probably more predictable odds out there. For example Renault, the french car builder which works together a lot with nissan/infiniti and mercedes doesnt have all these issues and is also valued at a similar P/E and has an even better looking overall balance sheet.

>>903425
>Theres a difference between not buying the stock right now and staying away from it.
Kek. Keep working on that English buddy.

>>903479
How are you staying away from the stock when its already in your portfolio you insanely arrogant shithead.

You're the one that needs to improve his english AND general attitude here, not me.

You're also still completely avoiding the fact that you lied about analyst consensus. Please stop embarassing yourself by trying to "win" this discussion by mocking my english skills you monolingual pleb.

>>903481
>How are you staying away from the stock when its already in your portfolio
Are you on crack? I don't own it. Never have, never will. Never said I did.

Put down the bottle, chum. You're losing it.

>>903249
to be legal it has to pass emmission testing and it did. 'at testing' it prrforms as per legislation.

there is no provision that as it ages it has to maintain emmission standards and that is not vw"s problem

>>903485
Are you completely kidding me here? I clearly referred to your quote regarding "the analysts" which you conveniently pulled out of the darkest pits of your anus.

A hold consensus does not mean staying away from the stock. That is all im saying. No need to bring drugs or alcohol abuse into the argument here.

>>903491
>there is no provision that as it ages it has to maintain emmission standards and that is not vw"s problem
Lol. Okay, mister internet regulatory lawyer. Good luck with your case.

>>903493
Jesus man, calm the hell down. You're going to give yourself a heart attack, you fat fuck. Are there idiot financial journalists who surmise about the stock price? Yes, because these click-bait morons say anything to get people like you to watch their ads. Every respected risk analyst is saying stay away until the picture becomes much clearer.

>Also, stop being so defensive about your language skills and your drug addiction. Just stick to the topic of the thread, m-kay?

>>903499
>>903485
Wow. I brose 4 chan on a regular basis and you are on of the most arogant assholes i came across so far.

Clearly losing the argument
>u must be taking crack CD

Clearly the one losinf selfcontrol
>why so butthurt Rolf XD

Jesus man. What the fuck is your fucking Problem...is noone respecting your trading know-how outside 4chan? get help or something

>>900762
The consumers don't care.
If they own a VW now they will keep and stay with VW for the future.

Just wondering how many other car companies are doing this very same thing. You're a special kind of stupid if you think they're not.

>>903524
You make it sound like arrogance is a vice. Arrogance backed by being correct is called confidence.

I know it scares beta males like you, especially on a board where you have nothing worthwhile to contribute. But the rules are really simple: Don't disagree with someone who knows more than you, and you won't get mocked.

Now that you know the rules, enjoy your visit to 4chan.

>>903585
>The consumers don't care.

Choose one:
>Get repair that materially impairs performance AND gas mileage.

or

>Can't sell my car.
>Can't can't trade in my car.
>Can't take my car to a dealership.
>Can't register my car.
>Can't pass emission test.

Consumers care, moron.

>Just wondering how many other car companies are doing this very same thing.
Hmm, I wonder how many other companies market "clean diesel" engines without urea injection systems in the U.S.? Maybe, NONE. VW was literally the only one doing this because everyone else played by the rules.

Lots of other car companies wanted to bring their diesels to the states, but could not. Mazda has an amazing diesel in Europe and Japan that everyone wanted here. But they couldn't clear U.S. emissions without killing performance, so it's not happening.

Please stop commenting about things that you have absolutely no knowledge at all. Here on /biz/ we try to avoid your brand of unadulterated stupidity.

>>903479
>>903485
>>903499
>>903590
>maximum autism
this is why i don't come to /biz/ very often

>>903859
What *tipped* you off? :^)

>>903524
>>903859
Thanks for backing up my claim that this guy is absolutely unreasonable.

Aside from that little thing. Here's both Reuters and bloomberg's analyst consensus.

Both are heavily on hold with a small bias to buy. No sane person could conclude out of these numbers that analysts are staying away from the stock.

>>903596
Are you sure that the "repair" will cause worse gas mileage? I don't think anything changes in practise during normal use.

My VW Passat gets like 5,2 MPG (or well 4,5-5 liters per 100km here in Europe) which is (imo) pretty amazing. Whether or not the car emits cancer while being so efficient doesn't directly affect me until the government decides to increase the road taxes on it.

>>903596

Performance will be unchanged. The car was just switching into a special ultra-clean mode when it was being tested. Actual on road driving was always unaffected by the chip.

>>903899
>>903902
There will be a 10% decrease in performance because the cleaning system needs to be heated to work. That's why they did all this in the first place.

>>902239

Mutti Merkel has retreated to her bunker. She hasn't issued any public statements for the last week. She is presently poring over her maps and issuing impossible orders to her staff.

>>903903
While that is of course "significant", consuming half a liter more diesel won't suddenly make these cars uncompetitive.

I drive +-100.000km a year which is quite a lot and it would cost me €500 extra per year.

Maybe VW could just pay for that ;).

put in $3k, cashed out at +3%

i didn't go with the 5x one because they didn't even have the market maker out and when they did the spread was enormous. should've bought more of the CBK one when it was cheap because the 3x leverage is pretty weak but i didn't want to put too much money into it because commerzbank are cunts.

>>903903

Oh wow, I'm stupid as shit. I somehow turned it around and thought the fix would be to turn off the cleaner during testing so that it gives an accurate reading.

>>903917
>Oh wow, I'm stupid as shit.
Don't worry about it. Everyone who's buying VW stock right now is in the same boat.

>>903859
Know what people do when their too stupid to articulate a cogent response to an argument? They post memes and hurl insults. I don't even have to insult you -- you did it to yourself.

If you don't come to /biz/ very often, do us a favor and just don't come at all. You don't add anything to the board anyway. You don't have any relevant knowledge, obviously, and it appears doubtful you could even articulate an interesting question. Post memes? We got plenty of monkeys that do that already.

>>903921
Just stop.
VW is up +7,40% today and I sold my third position for a win.

>>903923

>>903093
>No one cares about your small, short-term momentum trades. Any idiot can scalp a couple hundred bucks from day-trading a volatile stock if they guess correct. You'll just lose it all tomorrow, according to every statistical study of short-term trading ever.

>The grown-ups in the thread are talking about real investing with real money. So fuck off with your kindergarten bullshit.

>>903925
You are too dumb to be a troll. Post your portfolio daddy.

>>903926
or even a non-ridiculous study of short-term trading, like one that tests actual people who trade for a living

>>903930
I usually don't trade either but this guy is just being ridiculous and insulting every single person who posts in this thread.

>>903926
>daddy
Jesus, you're a creepy loser. Must be a Eurofag.

>>903932
>insulting every single person who posts in this thread
Just the dummies. Everyone else with a brain already abandoned the thread because you retards won't listen to reason or facts. Me? I think its funny to watch how stupid people invest their money. It's like an anthropology study.

>>903934
>daddy
Well you're calling yourself the 'grown-up' in this thread.
>how stupid people invest their money.
Post your portfolio and lets see how you >invest

>>903923
Congratulations with your profitable trade and mostly for getting out in time.

You're a smart guy for leaving the table after gambling on red and getting red as result instead of trying to get more out of it.

Don't see this as an offense but I want to make it clear for any aspiring trader that checks this board (kek i know right) that these kinds of gambles aren't an actual working strategy on the long term.

There's no guarantee or even statistical advantage that a stock will go up the day after going down drastically.

>>903939
it is/was clearly oversold, at least in a short-term perspective judging by what we know about the current situation.

>There's no guarantee or even statistical advantage that a stock will go up the day after going down drastically.
maybe not (but you're ignoring technical analysis stuff based on actual statistics) but it did go up yesterday (and maybe tuesday afternoon but i can't see shit on these shitty charts) so the rebound was already established.

it's not a gamble if the odds are in your favor.

>>903941
Yes, technically it was oversold but when the fundamentals are so untransparant you can't make accurate predictions.

It went down 2 days before recovering by the way, just to use this particular case as an example:

It was oversold by a lot already at the close on September 18th, yet it went down even more on Monday September 21st. If you had bought the open on Monday you'd still have lost a substantial amount at today's price.

I agree that at some point it would have to correct the oversold technical situation but it's impossible to predict whether that happens the day after or 3 days after, especially because all fundamental factors are so unknown and can have such a huge impact.

What should have happened when one of the largest companies in the world is not dying but fell from 250 to 100 per share?

>>902117
>the cars are now worth thousands less than before
Why because fuel economy will be 7 to 8% worse and the car will be 1 second slower 0-60%. I highly fucking doubt it.

>>903479
Hoi klootzak No need for him to work further on his English, it is better than yours and he speaks dutch and french too.

I always noticed Mercedes trucks use much less AdBlue than other makes like Volvo. AdBlue is a running cost related to reducing oxide emissions.

Wonder if potentially this spreads to other vehicle classes - every single vehicle on the road is going to be rechecked more thoroughly.

As an aside, anyone else noticed it was American regulators who picked up VW for this, and also Americans behind the FIFA investigation. It's embarrassing for Europeans that the Americans are doing a better job of corporate governance.

>>903957
It's because American laws/rules regarding emissions are a lot tighter because of californian hipsters.

The co2 emission tests in the EU are a complete joke and give extremely unfair advantages to hybrids as they get to start the test track with a full battery, pretending that you can magically fill those up every morning without using electricity and thus polluting indirectly.

That and VW, unlike the US car brands hasn't invested tens of billions in the presidential campaign so it was time to bash ze germans for taking market share at the homebase.

VW admits having manipulated in Europe, too.

Bankrupt & finished.

>>903979
>>903982
VW won't ever go bankrupt. They have a revenue of over 200 billion. This might hit them really hard but there is literally 0% chance they will go bankrupt.

>>903979
Correction on this post: GM donated tens of millions, not billions obviously.

>all those high price targets
>260 (two hundred fucking sixty) EUROS

I'm starting to think that all of them are getting paid insane amount of money to give false hope with their retarded ratings, only to fucking downgrade them 10 times in a row later pretending that they are very flexible and adaptive in their predictions. And those shit-tier ratings A L W A Y S get announced right after some major news brings the company's stock price down.

Why do four stocks come up when looking them up? What's their symbol?

IS IT VLKAY?

why is bmw taking backlash from this...

>>903993
ICCT tests show BMW X3 not meeting EU emissions tests.

"All measurements indicate that this is not a VW specific problem"

HYBRID >>>>>>> CLEAN DIESEL

>>903999

nice trips, thats crazy i own an X3 im more willing to admit id stay with BMW through thick and thin though than VW.

>>900762
>DIEsel
kek
a
k

Goddamn eurocucks

>>903585

This. The VW exploit fucked over the environment and the government to the benefit of the consumer. That is EXACTLY the kind of company I want on my side.

>>904011
>disgusting levels of NOx in the air in populated areas
>benefit of the consumer

>>904000
Plug-in-Hybrid with over 50km of REAL range: yes for people that live close to work.

"Hybrid" as in 3 km of electric driving and then consuming as much as a petrol car = no

>>904001
VW/audi drivers are just as loyal though.

>>904032

Maybe, but maybe not...

>>903957
Embarrassing or expected?

I'm doing right?

>>904061
bump

>>904061
You are doing as I mentioned above.

Daytrading a stock during these kinds of volatile times is like gambling.

>>903954
NOU BEDANKT HOOR JONGEN ;).

>>903923
This guy gambled red, he won and left the table. You took his place and gambled red, you lost.

Neither of you is making an educated bet here.

>>904076
Yeah I took my money and ran. I can sleep tonight.

>>904061
can't win every time. i stayed out of it after >>903908. if you want a tip, imo you can short DAX tomorrow and maybe the first 1-3 days of next week if you find a nice entry point. not sure if i'm going to put my money where my mouth is (it always feels like i'm getting in too late) but it sure is tempting when i read about people making insane gains off of shorting the DAX with 15x leverage or even more leverage.

>>904165
And I bought DAX today.
>put my money where my mouth

>>904169
that could work out fine. i'm waiting for a small short-term increase before i start shorting. i was actually supposed to take a break from trading altogether but these are interesting times and i don't want to miss out too much.

>>904177
>>904169
Not saying you guys are wrong as the horizon is completely different but I am buying tranches in 10% for my customers each week now in european equity ETFs.

We've gone down 25-30% now compared to this year's highs. It's time to buy in slowly and in phases.

>>904193
>It's time to buy in slowly and in phases.
agreed, with emphasis on "slowly and in phases" because i think we'll be going down more (from a perspective of months) so i wouldn't go all-in with the buys right now but for long-term investing i think it's fine to buy now. "too bad" my favorite stock is at an all-time high now despite the indexes falling so i'm wary about buying more but i already have a lot of dosh in it hehe.

>>904220
Yes, lots of my clients (European) have been high on cash since April when they had 15-30% profits depending on the portfolio risk level.

I'm now investing around 10% of that cash every month in the upcoming year, perhaps sometimes a bit more if we dip further.

For long-term buyers this kind of market offers great discount opportunities and I don't believe I can perfectly time the bottom anyways hence the phased buying.

>>904220
week in previous post was month btw. mistake there due to brainproblems.

making that amount of transactions on a weekly basis would cost me too much time/money anyways.

>>903957
>anyone else noticed it was American regulators who picked up VW for this
No it wasn't. It was an American research institute who wanted to promote the idea of clean diesel. They did independant testing of VW's systems since VW sold one of the only non-urea diesel engines in the U.S. The institute was actually trying, indirectly, to help VW.

When the institute discovered anomalous emission results, they sent their finding to an American university for independent corroboration. When the university confirmed the results, THEN it was reported to the U.S. regulators.

The American regulators would have never discovered this on their own because there is no government testing of NOx emissions. Compliance with the law was based on self-reporting by the auto manufacturer. (Whether that all changes now remains to be seen.) VW not only programmed the cars to cheat on dyno tests, but also made intentional false statements to U.S. lawmakers.

>>903979
>It's because American laws/rules regarding emissions are a lot tighter because of californian hipsters.
Wrong. It was actually the "hipsters" who discovered the deception because they wanted to promote clean diesel, not get rid of it.

>>904076
>This guy gambled red, he won and left the table.
Proof was never posted. You should know better than to believe anything posted on biz. Everyone here claims to make winning trades, but disappear when proof is asked.

>>904286
>Proof was never posted. You should know better than to believe anything posted on biz. Everyone here claims to make winning trades, but disappear when proof is asked.
like you.

>>904286
>>904286


>>It's because American laws/rules regarding emissions are a lot tighter because of californian hipsters.
>Wrong. It was actually the "hipsters" who discovered the deception because they wanted to promote clean diesel, not get rid of it.

That just supports the argument you're trying to disprove.

>>903979
>all USA cars that enter must comply with California EPA board emission regulations

kek

>>904490
Top lel.

I was of the impression that the californian government/inspection/wizards/hipsters discovered this. 40 times hipstermaxima on polution is probably going to breach nationwide max levels too.

the government lies, cheats and steals all the time, but they are never punished.

how about investing in vw and at the same time investing 20 % - 50 % of that amount in ford

scenario 1: vw rebounds, ford stays roughly the same, maybe even profits somewhat off the image loss and other backlash vw will experience

scenario 2: vw doesn't rebound significantly, ford profits off that

scenario 3: ford and other brands are caught doing the same shit and drop. vw rebounds even more than the current best case scenario would suggest.

i have no money to invest in the first place, just curious what you guys think about this idea

>>900762
Should I get some share?
The government will probably save the company so they don't lose job, it happened in Canada with General Motors

http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/publications/2015/07/Audi_HY.bin.html/binarystorageitem/file/0729_Audi_Interim_Financial_Report.pdf

There are no NO emission in this report.

Look at the sales per VW group subsidiary. It looks like VW makes more money through other lines so it is very safe to assume they will rebound. How long? no one knows.... I think 50% return in 2-3 years is a HELL of an investment. This shit is a no brainier

>>904804
scenario 4: vw and ford are fucked beyond comprehension and you need 20 years to get your money back and in that time tesla or whoever has taken overwith new technologies

Volkswagen is incredibly powerful politically. They managed to stop Volvo from merging with Scania, just to buy Scania themselves along with MAN creating the largest truck manufacturer in the world. It is a massively corrupt shit company. That makes money on corruption rather than engineering. I hope the company gets a big fine.

>>905035
You linked the audi brand here though so most of volkswagen AG's group is not included here.

Audi brand 2) Cars 902,389 869,357 3.8
Lamborghini brand Cars 1,882 956 96.9
Other Volkswagen Group brands Cars 120,501

You're not going to tell me volkswagen, skoda, seat, bentley etc all together have 1/10th the number of deliveries of audi.

>>905097
Do I detect a madswed here?

Volkswagen makes money by selling the most cars of any group in the world, creating revenue of over 200 billion and tens of thousands of jobs while doing so.

Yes, some higher up managers cheated the system and of course some engineers must have known this but let's not pretend VW is some devil here. Literally every company of that size has tried to cheat one law or another at some point.

I'm quite convinced that there will have been other brands doing exactly the same.

>>904804
>>905068

>Tesla

HAHAHAHHAHHAHAAHAHAHHAAHAHHAAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAA

On a more serious note, disregarding that one company who has been burning cash as if it's newspapers, I don't think Ford is the great alternative here as it has been stuck in the 10-15 dollar band for ages now.

Wouldn't touch it until it breaks out of this horizontal movement.

If you believe the car market will get revived buy a eurostoxx 600 automobiles tracker and an american equivalent.

>>905111
>Tesla
I'm not a fanboy and I don't own stock but whatever you don't know what will happen.
>the car market will get revived
Just buy DAX, it's cheap and diverse

>>905116
I prefer some more diversification geographically as the DAX is still one of the indices in Europe that has risen the most since the previous crash.

If you don't want to bet on a sector like automobiles just get the Eurostoxx 600 index.

>mfw up 13% and there are people ITT who didnt invest in volkswagen
>mfw i have no face

>>905174
mate, the lowest point was €105,6. Even if you were the luckiest random gambler in the world you'd still not have more than 5,3%.

At least check out the numbers when trying so hard.

Oh snap!

>>905176
first of all, they dipped below 100€. secondly, before they even dipped that low (3 days ago) i already bought and sold with over 4% profit before rebuying 2 days ago.

>>905186
Yeah no they didn't in practise as that was a dip on the close while the open was already a lot higher.

Chances that you actually managed to buy under 105 are non-existant.

Stop kidding yourself newfriend.

>>905186
And even if you miraculously had a HFT-speed buy order ready at the open, you'd still have bought at somewhere around 100 at the very best.

Even then you wouldn't be "up 13%".

Your weak-ass excuses of "having bought and sold already 3 days ago" make no sense as you clearly stated "up 13%"

>>901130
>investing in a physical object instead of yourself

Learn to read tea leaves, pleb. Mine are saying 'BUY VW STOCK'