/biz/ - Business & Finance

4chan can't think. It is a website.

it's glorified gambling

I think 99.999% of the people on this board are too dumb to do it successfully

You mean 99.999% of the world's population?

>>891077

I wouldn't be surprised if a few here could do it. I worked HR for a prop firm in Chicago that had a few six figure traders. No millionaires though. It's a skill of risk management and discipline. The most introverted autists are the most successful at it. The only socially succesful trader here was a bartender and he's still kind of "not enough evidence" pedophile vibe.

>>891055
I posted every trade I made the last two days in real time including the losers and like two guys noticed, one troll tried to derail, one trolled for obvious identity theft purposes, and one guy tried to join in and discovered it's really hard to post and trade at the same time.

I've been making a living trading the ES since Globex became reliable and in markekts since 96. The main observation I have to make is that before the internet it was just called "trading." The E*Trade babbys put the word "day" in front to mean stocks, which is often a really dumb way to risk money. I've met dozens who have tried it, and four who are still in five years later.

And all those screens. I hate that stereotype. No one can process all that visual information. That's a fund manager or a market maker's setup. I run two charts and a DOM. That's it. The rest is all noise.

The only people that make money off day trading do so off pump and dumps of penny stock.

>>891137
Don't even bother trying I did the same thing from the start of biz

>Make Forex thread
>Trolled constantly "derp you cant make money"
>Post YTD positive P&L
>Still trolled
>"Forex is a scam" "Its gambling"
>All my trades are currency and oil futures....
>In the long term you won't make money
>Post a 5 year chart of positive P&L
>Still trolled


You have to remember, this is a board that idolized frauds like Wipe....

I have given up on Biz, the few serious traders i met I just talk to in a skype room.

>>891151
this, most of /biz/ is straight up fucking retarded. i think i will still post my daily profits/losses and thoughts at the end of each day in the day trading general but purely for my own benefit as i'm still learning and maybe to get some suckers to get into trading themselves so they can lose their money to me.

>>891103
>The most introverted autists are the most successful at it.
this. most normies hardly even stand a chance and sure from a normie's perspective trading and technical analysis might look like gambling and hocus pocus because they can't comprehend it.

>>891103
>The most introverted autists are the most successful at it.

Seems like I found my new calling.

Where's the best place learn about day trading?
Do you need a lot of capital to get started?
Best broker? (not american)

I know a day trader and let me tell you.
It's like those poker players, some times you see them flossing, some times they don't even have gas for work so they use the subway.
But mostly you have to hear them blabber some shit about how the quantitative easing in China create moral hazard and made markets more volatile and vulnerable to monetary policy so their friends are not confident about investing anymore or some shit like that.

>>891060
underrated post

>>891214
>I know one person
>So I know them all

The fact you are making some sort of parallel between traders and poker players shows how idiotic you are.

If you think you can daytrade and beat the markets just like that you probably have so low iq and so small understanding of stock markets nowadays it doesn't matter what you do, you gonna fail in everything in life.

>>891189
Might not be the 'best' place, but I'm learning about forex at the moment.

There's a website called 'Babypips, which have a very useful tool to be spoonfed good information and quickly.

It's a start I guess.

http://www.babypips.com/school

>>891227
Where in this thread has it said you can beat the markets "just like that"

Typical biz post in a trading thread
>I can't do it so nobody can do it
>I don't know shit about whats being discussed... I better share my delusional opinion

>>891224
>A tripfag calling me idiotic
Better yet
>A day trader tripfag who thinks he is smarter than Warren Buffet calling me idiotic

>>891189
It took me ten years. I lost 7500 in stocks before I figured out NYC is rigged top to bottom. Most of the volume is dark and the colocators in Mahwah are basically a legalized frontrunning cartel. Reg NMS be damned.

You can trade ES futures in Chi with most brokers for under 5000. Margin. Levered 50Xs.

It's a performance activity. Like concert piano or pro golf, or car racing. It takes 10000 hours of screen time and structured practice just to get competent, let alone expert.

And I've never met a successful independent generalist. Myself neither. I settled on the
ES and I trade nothing else. Don't even look at anything else anymore.

Take a google at the name "Paul Levine" along with the search term MIDAS. He was my Christ on the road to Damascus. One of exactly two guys on the planet who have a comprehensive theory of price direction change across time scales.

Prove to me you've read his white paper and I'll tell you who the other guy is.

>>891227

it's not about beating the market, it's about moving WITH the market in the right direction. when the big guys are buying then you ride their coat tails and buy as well and get out when you hit your profit target; same goes for shorting.

>>891071
In a way, yea. Trading in general? No.

>>891137
>>891159
>>891248

So can someone explain to me the basics of daytrading?

Is it when you buy mass quantities of shares and set a limit to sell at 10 cents above purchase price and then being done for the day? And then repeat this every day?

>>891189

The best education is to trade, and to find an actual professional trader to shadow. Not one of those $100/month scam artists. It's a very skilled profession. Asking for a book on how to trade is like asking on a book on how to be a doctor.

>>891233

Underrated post. You summed up /biz/ pretty accurately.

>>891246
And....where did anyone every say they are smarter than Buffet. How stupid are you? Because I am not a long term investor I think I am smarter than Buffet? What kind of autistic logic are you using?

Well, it's quite clear the daytrading believers here are not the sharpest knives...

>>891306
>my knowledge of trading is "knowing one trader"

fuck off please

>>891265
You have not googled and read Paul Levine yet. Therefore: here is your reply.

From what I've read, it doesn't seem like investing, it seems like a job with risk attached. I've already got enough time commitments, so it's not for me right now.

I never was into learning about the markets, but if I were, it could be a good retirement job for someone.

>>891055
>What does 4chan think about day trading?
Can you code up a simple neural network?

Do you know what the derivative of 7x is without looking it up?

If you can't answer yes to these two questions, you are nowhere near being able to day trade. I can answer yes to both questions, and I am nowhere near being able to day trade or write a black box.

I know many guys who worked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange who could not make a living any more. Trading desks are closing all over Wall Street. My friends in Chicago say the same about the Merc. Watch the documentary Floored on Youtube.

Why are you going to be able to beat those odds. I mean, you can, if you get a Doctoral thesis in computer science or statistics or computer language recognition. Or at least a Bachelors plus a lot of work on your own and at a good hedge fund - years of hard study and work.

You're better off learning to program well. That way if the trading doesn't work out, you still have skills of usefulness. Learn CS well, and pick up machine learning, statistics, language recognition etc. to help with your trading. Even if it doesn't pan out, those are skills useful in many industries. Highly demanded.

>>891407
>Do you know what the derivative of 7x is without looking it up?
I'm not sure of the answer but I paid cash for my house simply using a 9-day moving average as a buy or sell indicator this year.

So I should quit trading? Am I just a pissant first level thinker like Oaktree's CEO disdains?

Well fuck me. I'm just a dumbass. I will think about quitting trading to learn the deivative of 7x. Do I need a fucking red thread bracelet or fucking big hole in my earlobes? Do I need a Chinese symbol of "wealth" on my fucking hand? How about a taperfade spiff haircut with designer stubble and a man-bob?? Would that work better for you? Fedora? Beat off to laptop images and furry cartoons on a thumbdrive in my pocket?

Guess I'll have to fucking quit. Maybe get a subscription to Trader Monthly? Oh I forgot. They went tits up. They didn't lose 8% of 9 billion like a certain hedge fund did recently with a name that rhymes with Oaktree. I just don't know enough fucking math!! Well, my big titted Russian girl from Mo's in Houston will ease my pain I suppose. You keep working with your flash cards, Mr. Mandelbrot.

>>891407
>neural network
>derivative of 7x
I must be missing something here but these are totally different scales of difficulty. That's like asking "Identify the *red* box" and "this engine won't start, diagnose the issue".

>>891435
Lol'd.

And how were you using the 9 day average, buying on up trends and selling when it leveled off?

>>891585
Yeah, I was going to say that too.

>>891344
So can I get the MIDAS indicator in my chart and then blindly buy the bounces whenever it runs close to the indicator line?

>>891248
I feel retarded for not having thought of cumulative volume as a possible indicator. Thank you.

>>891639
No. For index futures or index ETFs you need an additional indicator of either momentum or gamma (rate of price change) (or both) to "authorize" the MIDAS line. Cumulative tick works for some guys, who use its divergence with price to authorize their levels. detrended realized volatility is also similar enough to work for those who prefer super liquid instruments.

Same for individual stocks which are even more complicated by their institutional ownership and their news flow. The best bet for individual stocks (which I distrust to the point of ignoring them altogether) is to combine a MIDAS curve with a measure of Effective Volume. See below.

>>891768
The other guy is Pascal Willain. Value In Time. Effective Volume. Don't know of any free pdfs.

The tl;dr on Willain: his book is an MBA textbook on how to operate a hedge fund. Not how to think up a thesis. How to operate.

He examines the problems with taking very large positions and describes common strategies used to disguise big buys and sells.

His big idea is: only volume which changes price matters. If AAPL opens at 100.00 and 50k shares trade there, those 50k shares don't tell us anything. When someone hits the bid and price goes down to 99.25 for 1000 shares - those shares count. Because they mean someone changed their mind. Or someone was stalking that price. If 125k more shares trade at 99.25, they are meaningless.

The effective volume, hit bids and hit asks, represent either the strongest hands asserting themselves, or the weakest hands capitulating. Together, these are like sentiment indicators with the middle ground filtered out for the strongest signal.

So he then constructs several oscillators built only from effective volume and price and empirically back tests them against various instruments to show how they can be tuned to predict price change points in volume space and in time space. "Value In Time."

>>892231
Interesting. But hasn't HFT fundamentally made order books unreadable (ie. order spoofing, order flooding)?
I was looking into Market Profiling, but honestly can't be hassled with daytrading anymore. I'd rather keep with swing trading futures and forex and fuck it, much easier and less troubles

>>892244
Both MIDAS and EF function on multi-day and multi-week timeframes. They are both fractal structures.

As far as HFT, both of these techniques only look at executed trades, not unfilled orders. So spoofers are structurally ignored. Where HFT actually get filled, they become normal market participants for the sake of cumulative volume, effective volume (if they change price), and price reversals (anchored VWAP curves). The indicators do the counting and aggregating at computer speed, so no eyeball limitation is involved.

Obviously, I'm a fan. But I've also spent years developing these two ideas into my own thing, which though derivative, and impossible without them, is a different species within their genus.

Like I said above, these are the only two people I've ever read who have comprehensive theories of /why/ their stuff works. I've seen a million TA pitches, and when asked, " Yeah, ok, but why is the head and shoulder pattern predictive? What does it tell us about the underlying action?" the answer is always, "it has worked before," which is equivalent in my mind to "I don't know," which is the truth.

I guess having a narrative is the thing. It made an existential difference to me in terms of confidence. I couldn't have stayed with it without an answer to "why."

useful infographic

>>892272
>I couldn't have stayed with it without an answer to "why."
Yup. Which is why i had to develop my own trading system from scratch. It was a long and excruciating process. I perfectly know what it feels like, to be unprofitable month after month, and yet being unable to give up just yet. You keep getting hammered, day after day. Until you don't anymore, that is

I don't use technical analysis, i simply use OHLC values, and use Bollinger Bands to see if a reversal in the direction of the main trend is likely. Had to figure out why in terms of market microstructure before trusting the system. Simple and elegant, but psychologically "demanding", since you need good pattern recognition skills and the balls to stay with the trend correction after correction

That being said, care to share your statistics (maxDD, hit rate, expectation and average monthly gain)? I'd like to confront them with mine and see if it's worth to learn another system altogether

>>892275
retard

>>892231
ok so i am stupid anon who doesnt want to understand how the carburator works to drive a car
do i put MIDAS and momentum on the chart and just rack up the frags, right?

>>892321
MACD is amazing

>>892325
Only if you use it on multiple time frames

>>892292
>care to share your statistics (maxDD, hit rate, expectation and average monthly gain

I posted these two days of trades:

>>/biz/thread/S888375#p888596

Which are typical. There were 8 fills on the ES which went, in ticks, +11, +9, +2, -8, -6, +5, +17, +20. So, per contract, that was 87.50 on Thursday and 525 on Friday (gross). 62.90, and 515.24 after expense.

Since Corzine, I try to keep the minimum of capital in the account. It's less than 5k.

The percentages make it look like magic sorcery. As a percentage, I do 300% a month on a pretty easy basis. But you can see from the amounts that it's much more modest than that sounds. I'm more about no boss, no commute, no coworkers, and no bullshit. I'm happy to get rich slow.

Floor traders on the old SPOOs regularly had 10,000% years. It's the 50Xs leverage that does it. The ES pays 12.50 per tick, and the low-freq round trip commission is under $5, so it only takes a few points to make a nice day.

I've never done a Sharpe ratio, but I already know what it would say: "Your stops are too tight and your targets are too close."

But small wins are more important to me than huge wins and huge losses. I'm a base hitter. Like Thursday - I'm ok with taking my 62 bucks and letting the losers be purchases of information rather than losing my head trying to hit the ideal Sharpe ratio.

Plus Thursday was rollover day - it was stupid not to have been in December from 8:30 on.

Did I mention I hate stocks? Because NYSE. With all that dark volume and Mahwah Reg NMS bullshit, it's really rigged. The futures are as transparent and level-fielded as can reasonably be expected, and I also tell myself that's why my stuff works too. Because the theory is based on data and the data are complete.

>>892321
If you want to be a commuter in a Chevy, then find a job and invest for the 30 year timeframe.

There is no Formula One driver who does not know every single bolt, hose, seal, gasket and fuel injector of his car. There is a reason for that. It's because winning is hard.

pic related.

>>892330
>Your stops are too tight and your targets are too close
Yeah, i was about to say that. I guess we have opposite trading styles here. I guess i wouldn't be able to do that without an algo, and even this way, i would rather keep it on a very short leash. But yeah, this kind of returns are totally possible. What does exactly stop you from risking more per trade?

I'm just not that comfortable with scalping. But as long as your strategy is sound and makes you money, hey i'm glad it works. A good half of trading is developing a system you are comfortable following.

Anyway i think i'll look into the links you have posted. It has intrigued me already.
Ever considered swing trading?

Over 80% of day traders lose money long term.

>The more you know

>>892355
Source?

>>892344
My MIDAS/EF derivative generates between 4 and 10 signals per session. If I were to let those, say, 6 chances run wild in a much larger band, I already know I'd be compulsively hitting the button marked "Exit at Mkt and Cancel" every time a retest came within a tick or two of entry. Which, as we know, is frequently.

It's dispositional, and I can't change it.

One other thing about MIDAS - the topfinder and bottomfinder are way oversold as targeting tools. Even Levine believed in them over much. His big idea is anchored VWAP and volume space, as opposed to time space.

I did a big (expensive) back test on the topfinder, and in reality, in US equities universes, it performed little better than chance. Like 53%. So setting upper and lower targets is a soft spot in my deal. Most trades are exited at the stop rather than the limit.

I started as a swing trader, and followed Willlain's group for a while, which buys and sells TNA and TZA according to their effective volume oscillators. They hold for days or weeks at a time. They beat the hedgies and the market, but it's not enough to live on day to day for what I am willing to risk.

You know you go through this process and if serious, you just discover what your needs and abilities really are. The losers I think are the ones who try to force themselves into the wrong clothes. I've known swing traders who could not do anything else. I can't do anything else either.

If the ES or the CME cease to exist someday, I'm going to be in real trouble. Maybe I'll have my 4% annuity paying 80k a year by then.

>>892367
As you see it is not that hard to find any source...
>https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day%20Traders/Day%20Trading%20and%20Learning%20110217.pdf

Does not work. Forget it. 5 years ago you could have made a small profit looking for arbitates, not anymore even those. Get a job. Buy index. You will have more success even at playing poker at home than daytrading top fucking kek

>Much of the faith in technical analysis hinges on anecdotal experience, not any kind of long-term statistical evidence, unlike value investing or other quantitative/fundamental methodologies we discuss on this site. Most of the statistical work done by academics to determine whether the chart patterns are actually predictive has been inconclusive at best. Indeed, a recent study by finance professors at Massey University in New Zealand examined 49 developed and emerging markets to see if TA added value. They looked at more than 5,000 technical trading rules across four rule families

Filter Rules - These rules involve opening long (short) positions after price increases (decreases) by x% and closing these positions when price decreases (increases) by x% from a subsequent high (low).

Moving Average Rules - These rules generate buy (sell) signals when the price or a short moving average moves above (below) a long moving average.

Channel Break-outs - These rules involve opening long (short) positions when the closing price moves above (below) a channel. A channel (sometimes referred to as a trading range) can be said to occur when the high over the previous n days is within x percent of the low over the previous n days, not including the current price.

Support and Resistance Rules - These “Trading Range Break” rules involve opening a long (short) position when the closing price breaches the maximum (minimum) price over the previous n periods.

>>892374
>If the ES or the CME cease to exist someday
Unlikely. Fx and precious metals shoud still be a viable option by then. I was building a day trading system based on Pivot points, but i gave up at a certain point. Just not my style

And yes, i totally agree with forcing trading styles being a major killer. But i'm open to possibilities, so i'll definitely give a look to the materials you gave me here. Any other hints and /or suggestions woudl be vastly appreciated. Swing trading has the major disadvantage of giving me long, boring periods of time where nothing happens.

The result? Using statistical methods to adjust for data snooping bias, the authors found:

"no evidence that the profits to the technical trading rules we consider are greater than those that might be expected due to random data variation."

The paper looked at whether technical trading rules add more value in less developed (or efficient) markets. The authors found that technical analysis may work better in emerging markets than developed markets, but it was "not a strong result."

>>892393
Paul Tudor Jones uses Elliott Waves and technical analysis. Bruce Kovner does the same. Richard Dennis and his turtles used channel breakouts to make millions. Ed Seykota used breakout systems as well. There are trading educators out there with a proven decade long track record. Most of them use TA.

I stopped arguing with you clowns on /biz/ months ago. I even made a thread once in which i posted my 5 yr equity line. Just shitposting made by value investing memeboys. Not that i care anymore.

>>892407
> Most of them use TA.
fix1: they useD TA.
fix2: PDJ and Kovner have bunch of traders in their funds nowadays
fix3: there is a difference between your usual day trader trading patterns on gut feeling and Ed Seykota backtesting his data.

>>892391
I'm looking at this guy >>892390 and thinking, yep, that's pretty much right.

Once I did a swing trade on a coal major using a MIDAS curve and the Protective Boundary calculation from Effective Volume. A long. Price kept collapsing and I kept with it. "But, but, but. This guy's data and reasoning is unassailable."

Finally gave up on a dead cat bounce for like -33%. What it was - a secular decline because of the White House's war on coal. The TA gurus don't get context at all. Even the best system on stocks has to be constantly on alert for that event that the market will turn into an excuse.

One other guy I know of who shoots straight and has been in a long time. Brett Steenbarger. He's a clinical psychologist who writes books about trading psychology. Real academic, real clinician, real trader too. He's on twitter. Bunch of his stuff is on his blog for free. His ideas about performance and process are a big deal.

>>892393
I don't believe in TA, but I believe in quant. Papers that discredit TA or quant are garbabe. That would be proving non-existence, which is not really scientific. Furthermore, what makes you think that a few academics that spent a few weeks testing a few basic rules have done a deeper study than a team of experienced quants running data all days long and getting paid if they find somthing that works?

Now my problem with TA is that 99% of the time those patterns arent quantifiable and not back-testable.

>>892407
PTJ - you ever see Trader? The PBS doc he sued of the air?

It's on the Chinese youtube because he can't litigate it there. He uses a day-by-day chart of the 29 crash to short the October 87 crash. One day he loses 6 million. But then the crash came and bam - billionaire.

Luckiest summbitch on the planet.

>>892418
He probably sued because it's not representative of his trading style, and he doesnt want to give wrong impression to his investors.

Also, it's 2015.

>>892416
quants - they have a lot better quality data, too. I've yet to see a peer review paper that has the computing power to do the analysis at the tick/trade level. The quants do that every day.

>>892367
>percentage of day traders that lose money

Literally any search engine.

>>892411
>usual day trader trading patterns on gut feeling
Nobody does this. Being a day trader requires a robust, backtested model. That's a given. Like any other form of trading

The research the value investing memeboy brought up the obvious. It was the very first thing i had to learn when i started trading. No free lunch. Trading relying exclusively on patterns and/or breakouts is a surefire way to fail. I use market sentiment first and foremost, never used classic TA figures (head and shoulders, double tops etc), just OHLC bars to determine price entries in the direction of the main trend, if this trend is supported by fundamental motivations. And i don't do daytrading.
>>892418
Yeah. And yes, i know Stenbarger, his psychology articles helped me a lot

>>891407
>Do you know what the derivative of 7x is without looking it up?
I am ready 4 day trading now

Trading BTP/Bund spread on Eurex. What moves the spread between german and italian bonds on a daily basis? I know that weak DAX, high VSTOX widen the spread, but how would you know it should be 2 bps widening or 22 bps? Regression wasn't really helpful, so I am looking for some qualitative/flows-based guidance.

>>892434
well good luck

>>892428
>Nobody does this
Well, I should congratulate you that you never worked at non-top brokerage and never seen all the stupid shit people do.

> I use market sentiment first and foremost
What is market sentiment anyway? This expression is often used but definition is never clear.

> Being a day trader requires a robust, backtested model.
Then I'd call it quant, not TA.

>>892448
>quant, not TA.

A distinction with or without a difference. I've heard TA used to refer to "anything not fundamental" but also to mean "the classical methods required to get the CMT credential."

The second leaves out quite a bit of excellent thinking of the last 19 years. I would agree that CMT is a worthless waste of time (the diamond pause pattern can indicate either a reversal or a continuation -- BRILLIANT).

So what >>892428 is doing, and what I'm doing are TA in the sense that they are not fundamental, but also quant in the sense that the CMT test has no questions covering anything on our charts.

>>892448
Market sentiment is gauged by look at how the market reacts to news. Also how price interacts with certwin levels for example high/low of the week/day, due to the tendency of stops to be placed in clusters and to the tendency of bulls/bears to defend theirstops and at the same time, trying to take out the opposing part's stops in order to generate liquidity

>>892448

"market sentiment" is one's subjective perspective on how other investors/traders will act.

>>892504
Absolutely not. Check out my previous post.

/biz/ Is the only board that gets worse when summer ends

>>892512
How so?

Your previous post is exactly what he said in detailed form. You're making trying to make an educated guess as to what other traders will do based on news, trends etc. Same thing.

>>892448
>CFTC commitment of traders report.
>margin debt data series.
>put/call ratio.
>percent of float short measure, both singly and in the aggregate.
>cumulative tick.
>weekly bull/bear survey.
>Treasuries/Indeces relationship

Any conjunctive permutation of 1 through 8. And I'm pretty sure I left a few out.

>>892512

fuck you IDIOT

>>892355
I have no problem stipulating this is true. it is also a remarkable success rate.

Name any other performance vocation that has a 20% success rate.

32 NFL teams are going to start the season and 94% will not play in Super Bowl.

216.000 people will work for GM this year and 99.99993% will never reach the C-suite.

48 pianists will enter the next Van Cliburn and 97.5% of them will not win.

Ain't capitalism great?

And another thing. "Day trader." The term itself is bullshit. Everybody in the market is a "trader" because you can't enter the market without doing a trade.

Warren Buffet is a "trader." His famous pronouncement, "my preferred holding period is forever," is risable bullshit. Obviously he doesn't buy food or Italian silk ties with shares. And the only way to get cash from shares is to sell. So yeah, maybe he held a position in XYZ for 30 years, but that makes him a churner, in other words a trader.

"Investors" just choose a time frame. 30 years. Annual. Seasonal. Trend-length. Intraday.

Fuck this term "day trader." You are all traders. My time frame is intraday. Yours doesn't make you smarter or less risk averse or appetitive. It just shows the degree you are willing to trade money over time for the appearance of security.

Edward Jones gotta sell its BHB package to somebody. Why not you?

>>891151

None of you make any money. None of you are millionaires. You think asking for proof of your "success" is trolling. You think asking for you to show us consistency is trolling? Go away and stay away.

>>891159

There's nothing to comprehend. Wtf makes you think you can predict the short term buying patterns of an entire market?

Wtf makes you think the few times you so happen to be right isnt luck?

>>892231
Thanks. I will look into Pascal Willain as well. I'm gonna add MIDAS as an indicator to my WFA/backtesting platform I wrote.

Just a reminder that none of these traders have proved a single thing.

None of them have shown us the long term performance of their strategies compared to other benchmarks.

Nobody has done a thing.

>>892596
>obvious identity thief is obvious

Making money - yes. Millionaire? no. Who made that claim anyway? I learned my trade so I don't have to slave in a cubicle for some obese heartattack case assbreath who bullied his way into the corner office. I answer to nobody to the tune of the highest 5 figures (there is a significant tax penalty for crossing 105,000). What's your story, convict?

>>892599
I bet you attribute success at the highest level of anything to either luck or god. That's why you will always be a bitter little troll.

>>892604
I'd love to see the results. Again, MIDAS works best against the most liquid instruments. SPY, TNA, TZA, good. ES, CL, good. Individual stocks, less so, but better than chance. Post a thread with MIDAS or Levine in the text. I'll probably be around.

>>892613
Neither have you. You have proved what a neet troll fuckboi post looks like though. So you know, you get a merit badge for that.

>>892613
Go through my Forex thread archives I have posted live trades and a 5 year trading history since the star of biz.

Surprise surprise any trading thread on Biz has turned into people who don't understand trading acting like they have some sort knowledge of trading and hows it impossible to make money.

Exact reason I don't make threads anymore. These people calling profitable trading impossible are the same people who used to lick Wipes asshole and act like he was some messiah of biz and not a scam artist

>>892914
>I have posted live trades
Nobody gives a shit about live trades and your trading history. First, the format of the board precludes accurate tracking of your position. Second, what's the point of having your live trades? We aren't your investors who need to know what your returns on our money is. It's the reasoning that matters to ensure that the process is sustainable.

>>892914
Can you tell us your annualized return over the last 5 years?

When I have spare time I day trade penny stocks on the otc. I can easily double my money within a week, Even though I only put a few thousand in at a time

I made 20% percent returns last month. Day trading takes patience and studying (world news, politics, etc.). The fun part is figuring out how the news and the markets react to each other.
> find the black sheep

>>892599
>http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/
>Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll beat the market. So says a draft article by Research Affiliates highlighting the simulated results of 100 monkeys throwing darts at the stock pages in a newspaper. The average monkey outperformed the index by an average of 1.7 percent per year since 1964. That’s a lot of bananas!

If you think picking sympathy stocks is any better than flipping a coin, goahead. The industry has to earn commissions from suckers like you. Same if you really think looking at PEs during an asset bubble is "investing". Same if you are deluded enough to believe that your fundamental analysis is any better than the quantitative analysis carried out by analysts paid one million per year. Your call. You probably don't even invest anyway. The long holding time will hide the fact that you do not have a provable edge on the markets long enough to keep you happy and maybe even make you some money. Just don't delude yourself into thinking that this isn't coin fipping.

If the returns boasted make your anus feel uncomfortable enough to scream LIAR LIAR MUH FUNDAMENTAL, keep in mind that Buffett and other institutionals don't use leverage. While i do, a lot of it. So leverage aside, i could never even hope to make half of what Buffett does in a year.
As a last note, i'm not here to prove points. I'm just here to help fellow traders by sharing insights. They help me back. That's how it is.

And the other trader was right. Trading and investing are basically the same thing. Investors just hold trades longer. I do it myself sometimes, but i'd never call myself an investor

>>892559
>being this butthurt
>>892525
No, it doesn't. I don't try to make educated guess. I have 20 years of quantitative data supporting my "educated guesses". There is an abyss between putting a certain amount of your equity on the line because you KNOW that the process involved has a provable, robust edge on the market you are trading, and "guessing". It's the same difference between being the house and the player.And not knowing the difference is a sign that you shouldn't even consider pontificating. And that you lack the basis to doubt of anything related to trading, because you simply lack the math to understand it. You can only enforce your self imposed dogmas and hope some other memeboi out there backs you up
>>892914
Lovely system. I take you use S/R zones to identify ranges and breakouts. Win rate? RR ratio? Average profitability? I'm asking because i'm looking for secondary systems to trade, in order to smooth my equity line. My system generates big winners, but at the cost of having a fair number of small losses before. Which can easily pile up and generate annoying prolonged drawdowns
>>892627
I appreciate your insights man. I will definitely look into it, and use your inputs to build a daytrading system. I just hope it's robust enough to be tradable with a moderately high risk per trade

>>892599
>There's nothing to comprehend.
there is so much out there to comprehend, it just looks like random noise to you because you're ignorant and stupid. the market price isn't dictated by some random number machine, it's something you can predict with reasonable statistical accuracy like for example the weather. you won't be right every time but on average you will if you have a good model for it.

'The more you know, the more you know you don't know.'
'The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.'

>Wtf makes you think the few times you so happen to be right isnt luck?
hmm so if i consistently make a lot of fucking money it's all down to luck? so i should buy a lottery ticket then if i'm so lucky?

>>892499

Nah dude. It sounds like you don't have a good grasp of what you're talking about.

I hear explanations similar to these for the reasons stocks move all the time. They are based on guesswork, false vindication, and an infinite number of excuses for when things go inexplicably wrong.

>>892504

Closer to what successful traders I know believe.

>>893324

"You wont be right all the time". If you are wrong 50% or more of the time YOU ARE GAMBLING mate.

>>893324

I really wonder why NONE of you will post your compounded annual returns over a period of 5 or more years using your strategies against any benchmark you desire.

Surely you should've have outperformed in this ull market.

>>893390
>If you are wrong 50% or more of the time YOU ARE GAMBLING mate.
You have no idea what you are atalking about. Not so different from the other value investing memebois i see.
I am right exactly 25% of my time. But i still make money, and my edge is still solid. If you don't understand why i make money with only 25% accuracy, you should consider putting your money into an index fund, where you can enjoy having your capital at the mercy of the FED, and watching returns accumulated during a full year being erased in few days.

In any cases your ignorance of basic statistics is scandalous. And yet you act like you are a seasoned investor on a chinese cartoon imageboard, lmao.
This board is really one hell of a circus of clowns

>>893366
Nah, it's just what happens when you can read market microstructure. I don't need excuses and guessworks, my understanding of market sentiment has been modeled after nearly 20 years of quantitative data. It's obviously much more complicated than that, not enough for a single post. But it works for me.

And things go wrong.Any system generates profits and losses. It's inevitable, it's the cost of doing business and there is nothing to justify. Unless you are confusing traders with CNBC anchormen. In this case you should consider gambling with your money or putting it an index fund.

Someone know "Reading Charts Bar by Bar" by Al Brooks?

It doesn't work for individuals. You're competing with HFT machines. Most people don't have the money to gamb.. I mean trade. If you do have the money, you don't have enough. Most successful traders work for a bank. They use the banks money, not their own. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/was-tom-hayes-running-the-biggest-financial-conspiracy-in-history-
Look at this autist. Most traders used confirmation bias through technical analysis. A lot of MBA programs have criticized trading as the driving force behind stock market panics. Using TA alone for trading is stupid. You are guessing, and not forecasting. Also the statistic for day traders losing money in the long term is over 80%. The ones who make money are usually lucky ones or working in banks.

>>891585

The derivitive of 7x is just 7, wtf?

>>893393
Yeah. Here's the thing. No amount of "proof" would ever be enough for you short of identity theft, because you are an obvious identity thief. But more than that, you are a future dead body that guys like me step over every day. Because you spend money to live. You buy products of corporations that make up my index future. See, I don't want you to die yet, because I haven't taken all of your money yet. You are still stupid enough to post here, so you still have enough money to subscribe to an internet service provider. That means you are not bled dry yet. So you still have money for me to take off you. So keep posting. Keep shitposting. Keep eliciting identity theft information on 4chan. Because after you've stolen the final total that whatever force you believe governs the universe has set aside for you to steal, and you've spent it all in the pursuit of your venal and infantile desires, then I will have taken off of you all there is to take.

Then you can kill yourself. And I will step over your dead body on the way to the next iteration of you. The next idiot. Because that's what the real market does. And make no mistake, assbreath, I am the real market. We eat idiots. Like you.

Post again. Buy food. Buy clothes. Pay your utility bills. You feel it? When you pay your taxes. When you go to church. We are the Matrix. And you are the dead recycled food we eat.

Please. Post again.

>>891591
Look at a crude oil chart since last October and apply the 9-day. It's obvious Andy Hall didn't.

>>893686
That's literally the most autistic post I've ever seen on this board. Congratulations.

>>>893027
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

>>893686
i dont know what to say. you sure don't have iq to do anything with your life

>>892355
Let me fix that for you: "Over 80% of untrained traders lose money long term."

Profitable retail trading definitely is real. I know people who do it for a living.

I have some questions for those of you who are good at this.

How much capital do you need to get started?
How much leverage do you use?


I currently have $5000 of throw away cash, and I'm thinking about algo trading. I have a strong background in computer science, statistics and machine learning so I think I will be able to learn.

I'm not looking to make millions, but I would like to quit my job and work from home trading. Realistically I probably won't make as much as I do now, but that would be fine if I can live on my own terms.

>>893763
trading is a job you learn through a finance and maths education and training at a big bank. Most successful traders work for HFT firms or big banks. Most retail traders aka individuals lose money. You're competing against machines that trading faster than you are.

>>893776
5 is low, usually around 10
Never leverage

>>892958
You are asking for a free option.

I see a lot of people brag about how much they are making at day trading but none of them ever post a 1099. It's just gambling for people too socially unacceptable to visit a casino. The chances you will beat the market long term are essentially zero and your odds of going broke are extremely high.

>>893817
Watch the neets of /biz/ attack you. I know from personal experience the only successful traders are professionals who work in HFT firms and big banks. They use their money, not their own. Those guys make eight figures a year, but its a stressful job. They have to watch the markets like a hawk and get little sleep. But I never see a 1099 as well.

>>893873
How do you justify CIS and BNF then?

>>894084
lol of course no one answers

>>892337
this is your ego talking
you spent so much time and effort on this so you have to think this stuff is elite or something to avoid cognitive dissonance
developing a strategy is hard, following a strategy is not (if we dont take psychology in to account)

>>893749
>>893817
>>893873
>mfw this is what wagecucks keep telling themselves every day so they don't an hero
>mfw i made 226K last month with exactly 10 hours of screen time (because swing trading master race), while employing the rest of my free time shitposting and going to gym
>mfw the amount of denial and butthurt when a traders shows up
Heh, look wagecucks, maybe if you shitpost long enough the next rate hike won't burn the pathetic 10% per annum you have made during these last 5 years, courtesy of the free money getting thrown around by the FED.

I was about to leave this thread, but now that i realize that its demographic is mostly composed of angsty little wagecucks, i think i will definitely stay and enjoy your anal discomfort.

>>894242
nice 1099

>>893776
Alright, i'll try to answer. Not into algo trading though
1)Depends on the lot sizing. If you start with FX and CFDs you can do well with a 1000$ starting
2)1:100. I'll be forced to scale down to 1:50 soon by my broker anyway, but it's still good enough for me.
3)If you want to get serious with algo trading, check out Quantpedia. Still, in your shoes, i'd simply develop an algo strategy with a moderate risk of ruin, fund a throwaway account with 1000$, leverage the fuck out of it, and let it run for a few months before your algo becomes ineffective and blows out your account. Use the profits to build a brand new account in which you can use a reasonable position sizing.
Another warning, i know a quant, and he has several algos and it took him one year to develop them. There is no one size fits all in this business

>>894243
>implying i'm american
>implying my account isn't offshore
>implying i'm going to bother showing my assets on the internet to impress some pesky wagecuck on a chinese cartoon imageboard
You wagecucks never fail to entertain me

>>894249
>I am making shit up
You're seriously showing your trollness. If you had any trading experience you would know how stupid you sound like when you write
>i haz offshore account
I work with traders and well those guys are watched like fucking hawks these days. The LIBOR scandal has increased the compliance staff at big banks and HFT firms. Not to mention the government is now going after serious offenders, I am not talking about the US government as well. The UK is now a police state in finance and commodity. Switzerland is rewriting their finance laws to accommodate their allies legal systems. They are taking a beating in diplomacy. But you're a /biz/ troll who think he know what he's talking about.

>>894252
Silly little wagecuck, the guys you allegedly work with are no longer traders, in its original meaning. They simply work in dealing desks or are trained to run a few algos they didn't write to generate liquidity for the firm by stop hunting orders (as illegal as it may sound, i guarantee it's still a thing, and totally legitimate as well).

Firms no longer employ traders, they want quants, but even them no longer work as traders, at least not the majority of them. They simply write algos to break and/or hide the large orders from the institutional side. Or are into HFT.

Offshore accounts are legal and cheap. It's not the 90s anymore. Nobody cares about retail traders. I don't need inside informations to trade, just an internet connection. And i don't have liquidity issues as well, since i'm not an institutional

No Alpha, bitch.

>>894249
you are so obviously american

>>894263
>facepalm
>Offshore accounts are legal and cheap
Jesus do you even read what you write?
>I just need an internet connection
And a super fast computer with fiber optic connection. There is a reason why HFT firms take all the money from algo trading.
>firms no longer employ traders
Confirm for not knowing what the fuck you're talking about
>they want quants
Its the same shit. Different name.
I know I am talking to a /biz/ neet who masturbates to the thought of making six figures a month but you will get fucked in commissions and taxes. You need a broker, even as an independent "trader". You need connections inside banks and trading floor to help you move the money. Other experienced anon on this board have said day trading will result in total money loss. This isn't a if, but when it is going to happen. Studies have shown time and again, investing is the best way to get money. Trading is different than investing its just legalized form of gambling. You used forecasting methods but you're still guessing.
Also
>they work a desk run a few pre scripted algos
I don't even know where to begin with such stupidity.

>>892330
>Floor traders on the old SPOOs
you meant SPUs. please dont talk bigger than you are. there might be someone who actually knows something around.

>>894305
Golly gee, the denial is palpable here. My spreads (i don't pay commissions) are reduced to the bone. I have an offshore account. It's legal and cheap.And i pay taxes there. I also heavily use leverage, which means my returns dwarf many times the returns i could get with an index, even by taking spreads into account. My broker frequently gives me discounts due to the large size of my trades. I am not a day trader, but i know people who make money out of it using APIs. I also employ robust systems with a near zero risk of ruin, not guesswork. I also do not forecast.

Your anal angst is palpable here, silly wagecuck. The studies you all quote also include HFT and algo trading, and say they are unprofitable. The studies your fellow wagecuck showed before are heavily faulted, and simply show that using price patterns on their own don't work. Which is a no brainer. Also i don't really think that mopping floors in a bank qualifies as "trading experience".

Oh and i'm 24 with a STEM degree under my belt. I make 6 figures per year, and that's enough for me. I'm investing my excess money in bonds and equities already. I have a nice car, nice clothes and a girlfriend who loves me for who i am. Even if the worldwide casino that finance is decides to crash with no survivors tomorrow, i will still have more money than you will ever even see, wagecuck. That and a STEM degree.
From this post on, i shall simply laugh at you and your wild claims, which go to show you have never even see how banks make money. Except maybe from some wikipedia article

>>894313
>Oh and i'm 24 with a STEM degree under my belt. I make 6 figures per year,
Unlikely. Americuck.
>wagecuck
I make six figures a year, I have STEM degree, yet you call other wagecucks. Dude, you obviously work as a wagecuck as well. And you're masturbating to the thought that you make six figures a month. When in reality you don't.
>I am not a day trader
Obviously, because you don't know shit. Yet, you said that earlier when I got into this thread.
>STEM degree
Well my M.Eng in EE says you make 50k a year. Also
>Golly gee, the denial is palpable here. My spreads (i don't pay commissions) are reduced to the bone. I have an offshore account. It's legal and cheap.And i pay taxes there. I also heavily use leverage, which means my returns dwarf many times the returns i could get with an index, even by taking spreads into account. My broker frequently gives me discounts due to the large size of my trades. I am not a day trader, but i know people who make money out of it using APIs. I also employ robust systems with a near zero risk of ruin, not guesswork. I also do not forecast.
I will let you figure out why this whole thing is wrong. And it shows you have no idea what you're talking about.
>mopping floors in a bank doesn't qualifies as trading experience
Grasping straws are we.

>Oh and i'm 24 with a STEM degree under my belt. I make 6 figures per year, and that's enough for me. I'm investing my excess money in bonds and equities already. I have a nice car, nice clothes and a girlfriend who loves me for who i am.
So your life is shit and you like to brag about it on a Sri Lankan Origami board.
>From this post on, i shall simply laugh at you and your wild claims, which go to show you have never even see how banks make money.
Running away like a little girl more like it. I was never mad, and I just criticize your posts because he obviously come off as a troll who knows nothing, yet talks like he knows what he's doing. You, my, friend are angry.

>>894325
>making wild assumptions, not providing a single shred of evidence proving why swing trading is unprofitable
>has a STEM degree, makes 6 figures per year, yet he is so vigorously butthurt about me making money
Spoken like a true wagecuck. Enjoy your 50k per year before taxes. I'll keep extracting keks from this pathetic excuse of a board from bum rustled poor cucks like you inbetween trading

>>894332
I never said I work for a company. You assume I'm a wagecuck and don't make money on my own. But you're the one true wagecuck in this thread. You attack others because they criticized your bullshit. You post memes and say cuck, you're making excuses and other pejorative terms to make you feel superior. Also you tell others that investing is stupid. Which is what everyone is attacking you, because its stupid to say it doesn't. You're trading and other are investing. Two different things. Which you already know, right? The difference between day and swing is that day trader take lower losses than swing. You run the massive risk of losing everything because the wait period you're trading has more volatility. Its not a secret trading results in total loss. Its a proven fact, you will lose it in the long run. Yet, you say I'm not going to lose it. I've heard gamblers say the same thing. You are delusional and you don't even know it.

>>894348
>The difference between day and swing is that day trader take lower losses than swing
>You run the massive risk of losing everything because the wait period you're trading has more volatility
Comedy fucking gold, 5 stars, wagecuck. You are so financially illiterate it's hilarious. If only i had found out about you guys before, i would have stopped giving serious advices on this board so much sooner.

For every real trader, or whoever wants to start, here, this is the kind of guy who supports the value investing meme. A blabbering clown with no notion of statistics whatsoever, has no idea of what volatily is and yet gives "advices".

>>894361
You obviously have no idea what you're talking about, and you just spew /biz/ memes. You assume I'm an value investors, and not a trader. For all you know I am one. I never said anything myself. You're just drawing lines where you want them to be. Swing trading has more volatility because its spread over days, not hours. Both Day and Swing almost have the same loss rate. You're the one who believe I will make a gorrolian dolloroos from swing trading.
>I used statistics
You just said you don't used Technical analysis. I love that you're blabbering about knowing what you're talking about. When in reality you come off as a moron with no financial or trading education.

/biz/ : daytrading dont work put all your money on index fund, THERE ARE NO OTHER WAY THAN INDEX FUND.

>>894378
>/biz/ I don't know where to put my money, put it in a trading or index fund
FTFY.

>>894370
>t butthurt
If i wanted to bother responding you, i would carefully take you aside, and explain you how the volatility your account experiences is actually a function of your position size. A limited range, with no trading opportunities for the swing trader, could actually appear as a series of huge trends for a shorter term trader if you lower the timeframe, In this case you have increased volatility by lowering your time frame. Which is the opposite of what you just blabbered.

But i'm not making the mistake of explaining of stuff works again, you mentally lazy wagecuck. You also talk about loss rate and drawing lines, clearly out of your ass and with no notion of the concepts whatsoever.

I wanted to make an example out of your posts to show real traders out there, who is actually the average poster saying HURRR TRADING IS NOT PROFITABLE. That would be you. But please go ahead, keep entertaining me, i just want to see how deep down your denial can go

>>894370

lol at this shitkid

>>894383
>wagecuck
Again you're assuming. I just love your anal anguish against wagecucks. Its truly hilarious. You are the embodiment of /biz/ memes.
>trading is not profitable
I said trading is not profitable for the individual trader. Its very profitable at a professional/institutional level. Individual traders lose money because you lose out on options that HFT machines place light years ahead of yours.
>I'm not explaining everything
Oh don't worry I know you won't because you don't know. And I'm not telling you everything as well.

>>894389

Have you ever sat down on a computer, opened up a (your?) trading platform, and made a profitable trade?

>>894389
>And I'm not telling you everything as well
Psht. Nothing personnel kid
>>894394
No, he is obviously an institutional trader. This is we he isn't telling us everything

>>894396

I wonder if he will ever learn, that reading and regurgitation is no substitute for real struggle and experience.

If anyone tells you they know how to consistently turn a positive ROI day trading is full shit.

trading churns out 90% losers. 9% will make spending money and 1% will earn a living from it. people in general arent logical and are emotional and greedy. this even applies to logical people. thats why the majority turn out to be losers in a field that requires you to be a logical hardened machine. emotional people chase losses, double up whenchasing, loseeven more and arent happy with small profits and then that turns on them and they lose that profit. thisis why these threads are filled with whiney losers who turned out tobe shit traders,because they didnt know what they were doing, got greedy and didnt know how to see a win and take it. they end up sayong bullshit like: its gambling, its rigged, blahblahblah. what they shouldve said is: i was an overemotional idiot who got greedy, saw things that werent there, chased losses and became a loser; i blame it on something else other than myself.

dont let the losers bring you down amd convince you that it isnt possible to be a successful trader just because they themselves couldnt hack it.

>>893680
They're in the wrong order. 7x -> red box; neural network -> diagnose engine.

>>893814
>free option
I have no idea what you're talking about. Is that what "proof" is called?

>>894471
no one said they make money every day. but you're full of shit if you think no one makes money yearly, monthly, weekly off of day trading

>ITT
>muh stock market is gambling

This thread should be how to 99%

>>894550

What are the returns compared to benchmarks?

Why has nobody here been able to say, I've been doing this for X years and in those years I've returned X percentage per year using whatever strategy.

Instead you have someone saying they made X amount trading ignoring the Y amounts they've probably lost.

>>894242

You havent made shit till you post proof mate.

Just going to remind you again that not one single "alleged" profitable trader here has posted an ounce of proof of their position.

>>894396
i think u kewl post your strategy pls
seriously though, or tips, signals etc

>>894396
you must be insanely stupid or a troll

>>894559
>not one single "alleged" profitable trader here has posted an ounce of proof of their position
That's what this thread is for?
Are you White Knighting for the investor set? Protecting them from the nasty traders lying about their returns?

>>894570
>fuk u ur stoooopid
The butthurt is palpable

>>894559
No friend, i'm afraid i will keep my equity line all for myself. Hehe.
Besides it's too funny making you investing memebois mad here. Nah, i think i won't post anything. Nuh uh. And calling me liar is not exactly changing anything. Who knows, maybe i actually lied my ass off since the beginning.

Oh and hey are you perhaps the anal troubled wagecuck that was posting before? You sound bitter and angsty just like the other one

>>891151
>Where's the best place learn about day trading?
>tfw when been losing money day trading since the China market collapse

Bad Wiji, I guess. I put a lot of my money in Long term Bond ETFs that pay a nice coupon. Just been buying stocks that yield to try and rebuild my lost capital...

I'm more of a swing trader, btw.

If a nigger that followed me on Instagram that makes 6 figures can do it. So can I.

>>891227

You are a stupid motherfucker.

>>894559
>Spotted the embittered loser who went short because he read Zerohedge.

Identity theft is a lot easier in real life, pog. Just smash and grab ladies purses from cars. You don't even have to interact with them.