/biz/ - Business & Finance

I just see reddit spacing and I don't even read it, I just call you a faggot then hide the thread.

>>8926914
>no civilian can properly predict

>>8926914
Ive been making money trading though, what do you mean?

>>8926945
What's your success then, boyo? How do you master these markets? lamo, no one fucking can. We're just tossed around in the surf and are lucky to make it out alive.

>>8926957
For how long, and how consistently?

I have made money trading as well, at times. People make money gambling as well. The point is that there is negative EV from trading, compared to just holding bitcoin.

>>8926959
>I'm a shitty trader so everyone must be
Lmao.

>>8926914
>>8926959
>>8926969
You're right.

>>8926976

Unironically, everyone is. Unless you are a whale and insider, you literally can't succeed. All the market action is designed to suck up sats from poorfags like us.

>>8926959

Holy shit this guy is a brainlet. Buy low, sell high. Don't sell at a loss.

BTC is going to go down after this alt run. Eth will be the new king.

>>8926994
>Don't sell at a loss.

lol, and then you hold bags for months or maybe forever. "Never sell at a loss" only works in a raging bull market when you know it will come back soon.

>>8926959
Pic related
My trades today, ONLY in XVG
Earned 0.032 BTC and 1542 XVG just from this today

Seriously, just buy low, sell high. If you have a trading strategy that has a high success rate, and you cut your losses QUICKLY, you'll make money.

>>8926985
>>8926914
>Everyone is a poorfag
>I can't succeed so nobody else can
>Everything is doomed to fail because I can't trade
You are a retard. Nobody can predict random and massive pumps but you can pick things that will have a higher value in the future and wait until it goes up and then sell at whatever percentage gain you think is good.

You are impatient and a moron who wants a 100X and keeps chasing moons and losing money.

>>8926914
Efficient market hypthosesis is bogus, your thread is really shit OP

>>8927469
How do you cut losses on this - what if that 1050 buy had gone the wrong way?

Stop losses are a problem in crypto due to the volatility, so easy to cuck yourself even when it was a winning play but it just swung a bit first.

>>8927491
What have been your % returns over whatever time period? From active trading, that is - or % gains above and beyond what holding would have given you in the same time frame.

>>8928279

crypto is gambling. regardless of what anyone here says, regardless of the meme lines and the traderspeak that they use, just remember that at the end of the day, everyone trading crypto is actually gambling.

>>8926914

So far no one really disagreeing with me. Best I've seen is the xvg guy who got lucky on a few tiny trades today. I've had lots of successful trades as well, but no one here is claiming long term consistent profitability (above the market average)

BECAUSE IT'S IMPOSSIBLE

Don't managed funds make lower returns that passive ones?

>>8926914
Not true. I held a very promising coin with great tech and low market cap for months and lost money day after day. (NAS) ... after mainnet launched and the coin dumped even more I said fuck it and started swing trading between STORM and BNB last week. I'm up 30%, not in USD but in amount of BNB held.

Just don't be a retard and you'll be fine swinging

>>8928388
i̟̳̫ͯ͋ͫ̈̉̓̿́f̢͈̜͚̥͎ͬ͟ ̯͈̟̮̖̮͒̏̎͟y̶̵͙̟͕̼̾̄͌͂̽ͅŏ̢͍̙̠̥̤̻̱͔͉̄̀ͬ͒ͩ̍ͨ͜ú̷̸̙̩̙̟̘̈́ ̘̙͙̭͋̒̆͐̂̐̕õ̳̠̠ͤͣ̾͜͜n̨͍̘̯̼͔͊̀͝ḷ̜̞̓ͯ̒ͦ͌͑ͭ͊͘͢y̢̢̼̼̱͐̌ ̧̨̛̥ͧͤ̈̏̈́ͧ͑̔ͅk̢͖̤̗̈́̄ǹ̙̬͗́ę̯̰̇̽̃ͪͪͭŵ͓̼̜̩̻ͩ ̵̦̤̋ͫh̼̜̫̰ͬͫ́͋͗̇̉̔́ͅõ͚̹̞̺̣̞̘̥̿͒͂͂̏ͨ̈́͡w̛͚͙̱͚̘̤̦̹ͤ͌ͪ ̡̪̟̳̳͇͉̰ͤ͐̓͆̂̔ͅe̸͉̦̠͔ͣͮ̆̔̕a̗͕͂ͫͯͪ͠s̛̭̥̠̤̪̍̃̎̑̓̇͗̀͘y̶̟̻̫͕̮͍͈̯̐͋ͯͩ̓̓͆̕ ̫͓͎̩͍́̽́ͅi̸̭̠̯̺͔͍̤̱͙ͨ̿̿̄̒̃ṯ̢͒͆̒ͦ͋̚̕ ̛̣͐ͮͩ̊̋̊̑̀ą̢̬̪̜͈̩̟͚͇̍͑͜c̶̰͔̀͂ͫ̓͘͟ť̨̪̔̎̔̇́u̱͖̠ͣͮ̔͐ͩͧ͞ḁ̸̩͔̝̀ͣ̿ͩ͛̒ͩ̌l͇͎̞̼̯͈̬̺̉ͬͦ̈́̊̋̄ͅl̡͙̜̘̻͓͚̩̳̓͆͌̄ͮ̇ͮ̀͘y͈̤̹ͭͫ̊̏̀̕ͅ ̵̘̻̟̩̗̗̰̞̼̎̍ͧ̚͘w͎͔͉͈̺̖͚̱̓͠a̶̘̟̩͈̾̆̉ͨ̕s̡̤̥ͬ̍͋ͭ!̸̠̬̻̦͉͙̬̎̏̍̓ͣ̐͢ ̮̣͖̬̦͙͂͋͝ͅͅ<͔̞̀̾ͮ̊̊ͨ́͘͜3͎̜̯̦̤̞̺̆͂ͅ ̻͇͖͉̮̭̻ͬ̔̃̏͑́ͅ<̻̩̺͇̳̤̙̻͎̈̌͂̓̓͋3͚̦͓̰̦͔̘̘̿̊̎͠ ̡̠̭̼̖̺̩̬̒̑̑͋̕<͎̳̖̳̺͒͑ͦͭ̏͋ͅ3̨̣̯͌̀͘

Event-driven investments for coins with high liquidity are the way to go. If XRP drops 20% with no change in the fundamentals, it's a good investment. If EOS drops 25% with no change in the fundamentals, it's a good investment. Set stop losses at points where you believe the market is contradicting what you're expecting. I'm sorry you lack the mental fortitude to research and understand the top 25 coins and set stop losses.

>>8928409
30% is very good, well done. What were your trade sizes, what kind of range did you work within?

>>8928435
What kind of stop losses, though? Take something like XRP, then. When it dips "know" it's coming back (unless crypto as a whole does not), it's about as solid as any coin and the project is not going to die any time soon, so the purpose of stop losses is mostly to avoid long opportunity costs of having funds tied up for weeks, months... while they could be gaining elsewhere, right?

20% is quite a big dump to wait for, though, perhaps - no?

EOS is down 25% or more lately, do you consider the fundamentals have changed (there's no longer an airdrop propping up the price) or do you not count that sort of thing?

thx

Closed long at 8k looking for a reentry within the next day. Usually pumps after tax day.

Anything below 7.8k is great, shouldn't go below 7.5k, make your liquidation price at 6.9k if you want to feel safe.

>>8928517
I was doing many very small trades. Like, buying at .00291 BNB and selling back at .00294 BNB. Several times a day. Going for huge swings is how you can end up getting fucked, although by selling at a small profit you prevent yourself from catching a big breakout. But it's a lot of small gains over and over again.

I want to stress the fact that I'm not bragging either. I don't know much about trading outside of sellwalls/buywalls and the golden rule of don't sell at a loss. I don't read any charts or even really know how to. I would just make sure that I don't set my buy order at a price that surpasses a huge wall.

>>8928388
I called you out but you ignored the point like a faggot. You are regurgitating the debunked horse shit theory of EMH which is pushed by WS fund managers trying to convince normies they shouldn't be managing their own investments.

>>8926914
I started at 1k and have 7k atm.
Also been scalping my alt coin and acquired almost 700 extra enigma
Im sure many have done 100x better than me but I'm happy with my trading so far.

>>8928782
Which poster are you, on a different account? Quote what you want me to respond to.

>>8928722
Fresh insight anon.

>>8928791
Nice one - when did you start? And what sort of coins did you play with?

Would you have got the same gains by just buying and holding, in that time? Take someone who 20x their stack last year by trading... they could have just held btc the whole time.

>>8928801
see >>8927502

>>8928839
Hmm, no I don't fully believe in the EMH, as clearly (especially in crypto) there are huge swings away from the "true" value (if indeed it has any) and so opportunity to exploit them. Plus lots of things trade according to hype and news in a way that's theoretically possible to exploit.

Most traders DO lose money, you agree? That's easy to establish and has been researched/surveyed and understood well, I think - lots of information about it. And it's kind of necessary - all the plebs have to lose money for the big players to make it.

So the question is WHY and what can we do to avoid it? I have had great winning streaks as well but overall losses outweigh them. It does sound so easy, but in practice somehow just doesn't work. Or not for long.

How long have you guys been successfully trading, is the important question - how many months or years and how far above the overall market cap have you performed?

>>8926914
You're speaking the truth but no one here is going to listen to you. You're wasting your time.

>>8928823
I started last year. Omg made me a lot.
Fell for the Bancor meme but actually made me a lot too with swing trading as it was fairly stable.
Rode the big ltc pump in December
Went into eng ico and went all in when it went under ico price.
Fell for hodl meme In Jan, but have increased stack from then to now. Waiting for protocol/staking and see where it goes.

>>8926914
>

>>8928896
>Plus lots of things trade according to hype and news in a way that's theoretically possible to exploit.
Disagree,

>Most traders DO lose money, you agree?
Yes, the odds are somewhat against you as a little guy but that doesn't mean you can't beat the market consistently. Two completely different things

90% of retail traders are undisciplined, emotional, have no quantitative or programming skills, have no systematic approach and don't trade their own ideas. So is it any wonder they lose money?

>I have had great winning streaks as well but overall losses outweigh them
You aren't managing your money correctly. Learn about risk of ruin and money management first before you proclaim that it's "impossible to beat the market"

>>8928937
So you basically just rode some coins up hard, right? That's not the same as active trading. I had 250k in Jan but just from hodling. "Trading" lost me money and I also didn't cash out.

I'm saying that buying low and selling high basically works over a period of years, months, maybe weeks - in that order. Extremely hard to time small scale movements and EV decreases or goes negative.

>>8929003
Yeah ofc but I swing trade a portion of my holdings while just hodling and waiting on pumps.
Going to chill now though almost got fucked this weekend but my coin dipped last night only low enough on my exchange and managed to get a small profit. I try to be patient.
I only have a small amount, with 250k I would just hodl a few good coins like btc/eth/ltc and 2-3 alts, can't swing trade meaningfully in alts with that though. Would play with 5k in say btc though probably.

>buy high
>sell low
>hurr durr impossible to predict manipulated market
>everyone who makes money is just lucky
>I'm smart, I just lose money because of bad luck

>>8928762
how are you not getting rekt with fees? perhaps you save money by just trading bnb, but scalping like this is basically just a few dollars at a time, even when trading +$50k position sizes

>>8929107
Stay away from LTC as a long term hold, overall loses sat value over time. What you didn't mention was BCH, which has overall gained sat value. If you DYOR you will find that it should pump in may if unless you're one of those "bcash XD" morons.

>>8928388
>got lucky on a few tiny trades today
I do this all the time.

I'm too lazy to search more through my trade history, so I'm just going to repost some images I have lying around when I made similar posts on /biz/

These are also trades within a day (March 19, based on the filename)
Started with 1.1 BTC
Ended with
1.15 BTC (0.05 BTC profit)
19.23 NANO (worth 0.018 BTC at prices then)
1.61 NEO (worth 0.01245 BTC at prices then)

Total profit: 0.08 BTC worth
Basically I get my 1.1 BTC back, and I get all these "free coins" and some profit.

Sure, sometimes my stop loss gets hit early, I don't cry over the missed profits. The thing is I am a REACTIONARY trader (I don't try to trade on what I HOPE will happen, I wait for confirmation first), so only fakeouts can hit my stop losses (and those are not that common in my experience)

>>8929589
Im all in, in a 2$ altcoin because I have meme portfolio (7k)

>>8929623
>look at me guys I'm a pro trader
>it's not luck I swear
kek that 0.08 profit of your can be erased quickly after a few bad trades. how about you show us the trades where you lost money? also bragging about making money when EVERY coin is going up... kek. I made close to 40000% last year trading but I'm not delusional enough to claim I'm a good trader, it's all luck, literally ALL luck.

>>8929723
>EVERY coin is going up
>March screenshot
>April screenshot
>has been a bear market all year

>EVERY coin is going up
What did he mean by this?

If you look at the chart of the trades I take, it's AFTER crashes. Because EVERYTHING bounces, even Bitconnect bounced. I just don't catch the knife, I wait until it starts bouncing.

>>8929783
>implying alts didn't pump all week long
dude just stop. just admit it's all luck.

>>8929891
>the post you replied to is a March 19 screenshot >>8929623
>alts pumped all week
>pic related, alts "pumping"
What did he mean by this?

>>8929982
>look guys I made money from a bounce, I'm such a pro
why aren't you a millionaire yet?

It's doable, it's not easy. It's not easy, it's not easy, it's not easy. I completely understand anyone who doesn't want to spend time and money learning. Buying and holding is probably going to work better for anyone who gets discouraged in less than a year, which is most people and for good reason. I do it for fun, I have a job that pays my bills but I enjoy trading knowing than most of my BTCs are for holding, not everybody needs to live from trading. Our brains aren't made for it, we have a way stronger reaction to the losses than to the wins. Instead of trading every day for ten years, someone can open and close trades only ten days in a year and be in really enviable profit, then he becomes a holder (of crypto or of Fiat) and waits until the next time he decides it's a good time to open new positions. We don't know if the strategy used will work next time but it's possible to measure its performance, under what conditions it's worked, if we've sticked to it on our trades and when it fails we lose money but get a bit more information. That strategy is still not going to work forever but we can control how much we want to win before we've had enough of losing and decide to modify that strategy or call it quits.

>>8930028
>look guys I made money from a bounce, I'm such a pro
Have you even looked at the trades I made on XVG on the chart? It's literally the same trade over and over.
>why aren't you a millionaire yet?
;)

If you refuse to listen to me, then your pic is just a selfie.

>>8930112
No seriously, if you are so consistent why aren't you multiplying your stack every day? should be easy for you. I mean, alts go up and down every minute.

>>8930185
Liquidity in most alts is shit.
Unless it's Tron, Doge, or something similar, trading more than 1 BTC at a time will turn you into a wall that will never get your order filled.

So I can only do (pic related) level gains.
So you should understand what I meant with ;)

>>8930216
Also that was during the bull run. I think I'm like 50x less profitable since December.

honey pot thread u mongs

>>8930243
>Also that was during the bull run. I think I'm like 50x less profitable since December

This is what I mean. We rely on everything going up.

Strong withdrawals, all from little scalp trading? This is a full time strategy, I assume, watching charts all day and waiting for dumps?

>>8930333
Have enough passive income from my released apps to become a neet, so I trade all day, and can write my own scanners using exchange APIs too, so I kinda have an advantage there too.

>>8926914
Yep realized this after I went .061 to 0.034 and thinking if I'll ever see my money break even. I figured I'd need BTC to hit something insane like 22K. Took way too many trades and didn't listen to the people who said to hold long on shit like NCASH, IOST, (because they looked like ass yet still went up) and completely ignored ONT.

So long story short to even get my bitcoin back I'd need a 100% but those are always secret pumps and therefore I'd need about eight 10% gains in a row and I suck too much for that.

>>8930382
Shit forgot a 0 it is 0.061 lol i wasn't THAT dumb

that's why you brainlets trade bitcoin. i make money by holding blue chip stocks: foreseeable and historically proven outcomes backed up by legitimate news outlets. blue chip stocks have never failed me from holding. I don't make much but better than the -75% you bitcoin traders get. PROGRESS, NOT PERFECTION.

>>8930300
Dude now you've scared me into deleting what posts and images I can ...haha

>>8926914
I've been surviving for a year. At one point i was like 10x my initial investment. But now I'm barely up 1000 bucks lol

>>8930444
>>8930444
What did he mean by this?

There are good and bad times to make a trade. Being a trader is about knowing when to make a trade and when to stay out. 1 profitable trade a week is all it takes. Cut losses early if it goes the wrong way, and be patient with your winners. Have discipline, never stop learning and adapting and you will make it.

>>8927491
Exactly this. The only people who think it's all gambling are low IQ, greedy, impatient and overall neurotic retards. People need to learn about EV (expected value) and use risk management to do well. Although, I fear, trading is mostly a natural ability that cannot be learnt - not completely, but to a degree.

I don't mean to sound like a dickhead but when I started stocks I watched a lot of youtube videos where they all said "if you are new to this you WILL lose money at first". I never lost anything for about 4-5 months and eventually pulled out of some shit at a 6% loss with a small amount of money (like $700 if I remember right). I went from about $3500 to $1.2m then back down to $700k now in a little over two years, crypto included.

I barely knew what I was doing at first but I was patient, refused to sell at a loss and made sure whatever I was investing in was something I didn't mind holding if it dropped 40%. I've learnt way more but generally I'm doing nearly the same things I did when I first started.

It's very difficult yet astonishingly simple at the same time. Literally, in crypto, buy a dip in a project you are absolutely sure will move up from where it is this time next year and can take advantage of its fluctuations - aim for a 7-15% or whatever while you're learning, only on something that is down this week and isn't a shitcoin and is showing bullish tone and try to buy in cheap. Then be patient, even if it drops 10% and you're waiting two weeks, don't be a retard and sell, just accept that it didn't go as quickly as you'd have liked and be thankful for what you gained.

I'll give one example, XMR is down now compared to the rest of the market and could go further, but anyone who thinks it doesn't have a 99.5% chance of going up at least 20% of where it is now within the next 3 weeks is, in my opinion, a true retard.

This is literally all you have to do, it's simple yet most still struggle to do it.

>>8930543
>>8930543
>buy a dip in a project you are absolutely sure will move up from where it is this time next year

But you mean, close the trade much sooner than that, right? Or else we are still talking about buy-and-hold.

How long do your crypto trades tend to last, days to weeks? % gains targets?

I suspect that a lot of it is indeed natural ability, as I'm a proponent of that in most arens. Anything I am truly good at just came to me naturally and I can find no explanation for others being less able at it.

Do you look for several days of red before you buy? But, not steep red, I presume, as then you're just "catching falling knives", as they say?

I have made some successful trades by buying flat areas that look set to rise, but then I fuck it up elsewhere.

Also, again, does this produce better returns than just buying and holding? That's the question. Buying dips and taking 10% profits, and repeating, on a coin that is overall steadily rising, is likely to give you a much smaller slice of profits than just holding it the entire time. That's what I did with ONT and WAN recently - ended up with very little because I kept buying and selling instead of letting the coin do the work for me, nomsayin?

>>8930687
I never really aim more than 15% even when I suspect it's going to do 120%. Depending on how the market is, that could take 1-20 days, sometimes more. I generally look for what's low on the 1-2 weeks to BTC in my list of non shitcoins, those being pretty safe shit like ADA, NEO, OMG, IOTA, XMR, ETH, then others I only suspect to be safe such as VEN, EOS, BNB, ONT I will still trade in but behave differently and throw smaller amounts in and aim for a smaller gain. If I decide it's +EV, around 9/10 success rate and do it lots of times and prepare to sell at a loss if needed, then how is that gambling?

If something has an 97% chance of succeeding and you make 5% each time but there's also a chance it may crash to 0 but you are only doing it with a small amount then it's still +EV. +EV is not gambling, I don't care what anyone says, simple maths prove it is not gambling. You can earn money just from doing that.

But if you are absolute confident in what you are investing in you can play with much higher amounts.

As for holding, I've only started doing it recently and I missed the ETH and NEO trains, I was around but was too busy in stocks and playing it too safe. I put small amounts into moonshots now, like LINK, REQ, QASH, some other shitcoins because I witnessed it happen with eth & neo being shilled hard. Fuck if I know if they will work, I truly have no idea, but I hold about 20k link and I can't remember how much req and some other shitcoins that probably won't do anything. I certainly don't have complete confidence in the though, like I do with NEO, for example, which I always have spare to buy dips with. Again, just not selling at a loss with something like that, ever, and as long as it's not hundreds of thousands of dollars in each time.. It's really not gambling, it's just a wise investment decision.

>>8930687
Also the fact I missed ETH & NEO shows I'm not overly brilliant at it at all and missed big opportunities, everything I do is very basic yet I've still very rarely lost money. It's 90% a patience game, imo. Just buy the dip, sell high, just do that. Good luck.