/biz/ - Business & Finance

This is why you always trust fundamentals and never give into fear.

The Yemen thing was overblown and no way was it going to effect Saudi production and exports.

Oil is giving up all gains, we're heading back to $40.

Fundamentals are still pointing to 30 in a month or 2.

Yemen conflict doesn't matter until it affects shipping lanes, or Saudi fields, which will never happen so long as the saudis exist.

Iran and US deal seems in the bag, putting more supply in the market.

There is no bullish news for oil.

The queen of /biz/ states that we should expect interest rates to rise this year.

Swapped back to DWTI. Looks like the market is rationalizing.

Also, let's hope the dollar weakens. The dollar was weak today and thus the oil correction was compounded

>>701881
If the dollar gets weaker oil will go up, do you mean strong or are you a masochist?

>>701875
That's what she's said every meeting since she's been in charge. Will it ever come true? or will she just contract the money supply further?

>>701887
not necessarily, if the saudis are dead set on putting the shale and frackers out of business it might not matter how weak the dollar is because saudis want it below what it's worth for people in north america to dig it up for which should scale roughly with the cost of employment for the operation, which is in american dollars.

>>701874
>which will never happen
Famous last words.

>>701900
Saddam had the largest army in the Middle East in 1990 and got no where near Saudi Oil fields despite wanting them after he took Kuwait's.

Any real threat to Saudi Oil will result in the US getting involved directly.

>>701893
Actually stating on the record that interest rates will rise this year is a big deal, she's always been hesitant in laying down specifics. As you can see by stating any rate increase after this year will be unpredictable. Inflation will force the Fed's hand, this much is certain, only an incredibly improbable event that would introduce deflation into the economy would send inflation lower. Oil collapsing is one of those things but it won't hold inflation from advancing.

>>701895
What is happening is the Saudis are keeping production levels, and the dollar is growing stronger. Oil will be cheaper, but to say the Fed doesn't have the power to send prices rising is erroneous. With enough expansion of the money supply oil could be anywhere north of where it is.

This won't happen because it is political and economic suicide, but to say that the Fed does not have the power to change asset valuation as we know it vastly underestimates the power of a central bank, and the power of the money supply and interest rates. After-all oil rose ~$6 due to the Fed changing some words, and ~$3 from the possibility of war in the Middle East.

>>701933
Also 4chan kept thinking the post was spam so at least 4chan thinks you're right, it took 15 different attempts to even submit.

>>701887
I meant strong. It's trending very hard and it's not like the fed can lower rates. I'm just worried europe's QE will have the intended effect

>>701933
Traders are just lemmings I suppose, I gotta learn to run with the lemmings is all.

>>701935
probably doesn't like the tildes.

~$9 total

>>701936
I'm actually in Europe currently. Suffice to say it won't. Not for a long time. Case in point: US. It took 6 years for it to have any effect what so ever for the actual economy. The markets were effected in a shorter time span.
Also QE devaluing the Euro is good for an exporter economy like Germany, but bad for service economies like the Mediterranean states. So ECB QE having a similar effect like the US won't happen. It won't pull everyone up, since Germany exports to Greece/Italy/etc. and then those countries have to pay Germany back in euros. It's a mess and QE won't fix it.

>>701942
Trading's real job is to provide liquidity if you want to
>buy low sell high
especially in a short time frame, you have to start an abattoir. The market makers make money on commission, they don't care. So if you're trading you're already at a disadvantage.
To be continued?

So does Asia pick up on the trend Sunday and drops Oil even lower?

>>701982
It's a question of whether oil bounces off $52, which it sold hard today so it might look like that, or consolidates around $52. Also volume is fairly low in Aussie and Tokyo town, so it won't necessarily indicate what the rest of the world does.
Oil could retrace back up to $50, or it can keep on keeping on.
1) If the dollar has bottomed out, then oil won't go higher based on cheaper dollar.
2) Yemen situation and news around it.
3) Genscape report says Cushing is getting pretty full.

Based on those factors it might be a continued sell-off, or a good positioning day.

That reminds me, OP you didn't put any links in the OP.

>>701900
>I can shitpost.

Good for you. Meanwhile in reality, the US is pushing for peace with Iran, giving Iran much less reason to back the Houthis.

Saudis are leading a joint military operation against the rebels, successful enough that the US has already relinquished operational command to them.

>>701869
We've entered a new paradigm in oil pricing. Saudi Arabia has lost its marginal pricing power to US shale. When prices are low, shale production will decline and we will be happy to buy from the Saudis. When prices start to rise, shale can be turned back on at a moments notice; preventing prices from rising back to $100+

Saudi drilling is so easy and cheap, they just cannot comprehend new technology. They have no need for it. Shale will decide when the "next" marginal barrel is produced, not the Saudis or OPEC.

In the process, a lot of weak hands are going to get shaken out of the market.

>>702113
>Saudi drilling is so easy and cheap, they just cannot comprehend new technology. They have no need for it.

I work for a company that does drilling technology and the execs keep pushing Saudis to buy our stuff. It's pretty sad, a few guys spoke out that we should be shifting our focus because leasing parts is a dying business, and they got canned.

It's pretty much a sinking ship here, but this was the highest paying job I got offered by a long shot, so I'll ride it as long as I can.

>>702204
Keep your resume updated, MAKE SURE your LinkedIn is looking good, and most importantly, look at job openings in your field. Check their requirements and make sure you have those, or that you're working towards having them.

There's a good chance you can benefit from this by jumping jobs, thus gaining a raise in pay due to competing with your current salary, as opposed to just waiting for the ship to tank and having to compete with all your co-workers.

>>701869
>>702211
>>702204
You guys have any advice for me? I was working as a pipefitter in the Bakken, saving up to finish my engineering degree without becoming a debt slave, but now I'm out of a job.

>>702215
Rev up those dick sucking lips

>>702326
I'm looking into taking engineering classes in Germany after taking some sort of intensive language course over there (currently, my German language knowledge consists of asking someone for their papers and stating that the American has dog biscuits in his pocket).

To save up a bit more for that, I'm thinking I might take a job on an Alaskan fishing boat. I've already been paid to rape Mother Earth on land, so I might as well make some money raping her at sea, too.

>>701893

>>702204
>>702211
relevant article: http://www.forbes.com/sites/cameronkeng/2014/06/22/employees-that-stay-in-companies-longer-than-2-years-get-paid-50-less/

I regret buying erx so soon, i could have made small profit but i hate having my money tied up in something that's going to take so long to rise. too much uncertainty in the middle east, one day oil can hit 52 the next 48 then oh no all out war or something stupid oils at 55 back again.

So we're getting close to where most analysts thinks Oil storage might run out.

There's also articles out there saying the storage issue is completely false.

Do any of you think the US storage problem is real? I can see Oil dropping way below $40 if it's announced Oil is being dumped at market price in the next couple weeks.

>>702451
I got caught short UWTI right before the Yemen news broke out. Had 7.5k shorted at 2.27. Potential 4k loss after the Yemen news broke.

After the beating Oil took Friday, it's down to about a potential $300 loss.

I'm hoping to be back in the green next week and covering.

>Egyptian navy has fired shots at Iranian warships

Also, the supply was up 8.4 million barrels, back to normal growth after that one lesser week.

Waiting for it to hit nineties.

>>702985
Hit 90s?

Oil touched $47 in Asia hours.

Some facts about oil price from time series of the last 20 years:
extremely sensible to offer,
unaffected by demand and by consumers storaging, perfectly correlated with the dollar.
Latest peak oil academic researches dated it around 2016.
Some speculation: apart from political bias, Sellers are far from a perfect competition regime. Even if frackers can halt the excavation process they will have to cover investment costs in a 6-12 month period, they are actually cost cutting. Ultimately the market is defending himself from newcomers with this kind of price competition.

I think I'm going to get back on DWTI.

Holy shit the spread is closing. I assume from the nuclear deal?

Also, glad I bought 80 shares of DWTI before market closed.... Let's hope the slump holds over.

>>704327
Peak oil isn't a thing

>>701869
I hope they agree on the deal

>>704633
What is the spread looking like?

>>704755
US drone may have or may have not just killed 2 Iranian Advisors. Since it's Iran's military stating it there could be consequences for the deal.

is everyone hedging for tomorrow? activity seems low on dwti and uwti

>>704885
I didnt know how to play oil this week but hedging might be the best option now.
Oil is still bearish and supply is still gaining. Storage almost full.

>>704860

The nuke deal isnt going to happen. The news has really hyped it lately, but it was always doomed. A nuclear Iran starts an arms race in the middle east. Basically the entire idea of the deal was to kick the can 2 years down the road for the next President. Iran knows it, so does France. It seems like the only ones who don't get it are Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Iran is just going to keep upping its demands to the point where no one will agree. They have no real interest in a deal they know will be undone in 20 months/gets them attacked by Israel/Saudi/UAE

>>704900

they have 2 choices, bow down suk some dick for a while to get lots of free-e money finally with trade sanctions lifted for a while and they don't even have to completely give up their nuclear program.

or refuse the deal and further sanctions will be imposed upon them most likely out of frustration from the US and other global leaders.

Is it really a choice? Getting shafted in yemen so badly is just another loss for them. They need all the money they can get.

surprised Oil isn't down more with how much the USD just went up.

>>704918

In their culture bowing down shows weakness, and weak leaders are removed, often violently. Combined with the fact a large section of their youth already actively hate the current regime, and it would likely be a death sentence for Imanutjob (or imadinnerjacket as Leno called him)

For them domestically, it would be better to rot under sanctions and be able to point the hate finger at the US for what they have done to us, than appear weak and have every senior General and warlord in the country thinking they have a shot at the big chair.

Iran isn't giving up the bomb unless it is by force. That is why Obama wont do anything solid. He doesnt want to go out in his last 20 months being the one who caused the third war in 15 years. He will save that for the next guy (almost certainly a republican) so the Dems have the hate finger to point over the next 8 years

>>704942
Expect no deal and more sanctions then, not all Reps are that dumb to be the ones who started another expensive war.

anybody know what was going on today? my stop kicked me out (dwti) around 130 and I ended up making $700... which I'm really happy about... but I don't know why. was it just the dollar bumping around?

“This is the first time that anybody has slowed down on fracking,” said Taylor Robinson, president of Chicago-based PLG Consulting, which advises rail companies. “Nobody knew how fast they could shut down and it looks like they’re pretty fast.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-american-railroads-caught-speed-002209155.html

So either the Iran deal is going to get delayed(most likely chance) or all parties come to an agreement and Iran starts unloading their oil a couple months.

Looks like the smart thing to do would be to swing trade UWTI and sell it after the spike when the deal gets delayed and go back to DWTI after the kneejerk reaction dies down and before the supply report comes out.

Deal or no deal, Oil fundamentals are still shitty.

>>705132

smart thing to do would be to not trade oil at all right now aside from..say long positions with low volatility 6months out bullish but i doubt very many people will listen to that, including myself.

>>704693
Retard detected
>Oil will NEVER run out. We can just keep discovering new sources forever

Almost nobody contests that peak oil is a thing. The controversy is when it will happen and if we'll have alternatives by the point.

>>705420
>>705420
peak oil is not a thing (for us to worry about anyway). It will happen eventually but we will be dead before it happens anon. I think that is what he meant.

>>705427
What we should really worry about is overpopulation. 3.5 billion people in the 1950s, 7 billion now. We'll easily hit 10 billion in the next 50 years and then shit will start to get weird.

>>705420


People are trying to invest here not save the planet. make money? Peak oil isn't a concern right now.

>>702431
What is this type of chart called? How do I read it?

The price drop is intentional so merrica and uk can stockpile for war.

Proove me rong

>>705439
You are now aware that the human race underwent the single largest fertility drop in human history (or at least since the Mount Toba eruption ~70,000 BC) between 1960 and 2000.

>>705132

Really hard to swing trade when oil pricing is bouncing all over the place, due to combinations of bearish fundamentals, seasonal bullish market, USD strength, and overreaction to world news.

>>705420
Peak oil is literally not a thing you autist. Go look it up.

>>705482
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Piss off, tripfag.

>>705574
Solid source. Not.

Hint: the more expensive it gets, the deeper we go

>>702431
I don't know what it is called... but it's just a dot plot of what the individual fed board members have in mind for rate hikes in the near future. you can see that most of the fed members are grouping around 1% for end of 2015... a wider spread for 2016 (2-3% leaning towards 2) and pretty much agreed on 4% rate long term

Finally off this ride.

shorted 7.5k of UWTI at 2.30 right before Yemen news broke, lucky me. Held it and covered today at 2.20.

Potential $4000 loss turned into $1000 gain.

Taking a break from Oil.

>>705685
actually I take that back.

I might go back in depending on what happens to deal. I don't know why I keep doing this.

>>705690
you've developed an oil addiction!
careful now

>>705690
hahahahahaaaaaaaaaa

one of us! one of us!

You are a br-oil now. Welcome to the group. Speaking of oil.
DWTi is looking good. I can see it go higher now. BUT all it takes is some BS news from the Middle East and that can go haywire.

Whoa whoa whoa wait a minute.
Is the market open tomorrow or does it open next week on Wednesday? There's almost no way I'm holding over that long.

>>705690
if a deal isn't reached I expect the petroyuan to EXPLODE into being (3-5 yrs)

I think that is why the US gvtmt is even talking w/ iran and offering such carrots as 6,000 centrifuges and allowing fissile mtrl in 10 yrs. gotta sideline Greatest Ally in attmpt to save the USD

desperation stinks.

>>705715
??
I don't think you should be trading today.

>>705439
>muh thomas malthus theory

I just started trading oil
I hate it but i can't stop it

pls gib advice

>>705731
make daily sacrifices to the oil gods, they prefer dinosaurs made out of plastic.

>>705574
Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production

Read your own source faggot.

With my calculations we will be at $60 oil by late summer. Economic growth will most slow around this time as well. Making for a potentially cold winter indeed

>>705685
That's because you bought low and sold high. Nice job, keep it up and you'll keep making a profit

>>701869
The deal deadline is today but is there a specific time?

>>705870
6 pm.
but it is quite likely that the deadline will be postponed.

>>706002
So if the deal goes through, will oil come down?

>>706035
yes.

sanctions lift=more supply

>>706036
+ the inventory report tomorrow. Oil would shit itself

Who here hype for nuke deal, the deadline got extended to Wednesday i imagine they're close to getting it through but are desperate to get iran to agree to something. I got in dwti yesterday at 124 low price but not as low as i could have of course, i imagined if the deal didn't go through or was delayed the backlash wouldn't be as bad as if i was on the opposite side (uwti) and it went through considering the production aspect and filling inventories are still on the line.

>>705685
That's pretty shitty from a risk standpoint but naturally better than a loss

>>706266
He's going to eat it one of these days.

Ok guys, new day starting up again. Already seeing oil going up and down, resistance seems to be at $48 dollars. Happy hunting gents.

When does the Cushing report come out?

>>707060
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

I'm trying to get into DWTI but I want to be in at 122-124. I don't understand why oil is rallying anyway.

>>706047
Sanctions take many months to remove, plus I'm sure they will be contingent on inspections. That supply won't be here for a while.

Wtf is happening lol

fml, ate -$2000 today.

i have a friend working close to Houston, TX with an energy company. he started fresh out of college about a year ago, but he doesn't feel secure about working there now considering what he has heard about plants closing down across the country

Market reaction seems a bit too optimistic IMO. Have the bulls gained their confidence back again?

was the EIA report really that bullish?

>>707109
4.8 M barrels

>>701869
>>701873
>>701874
>>701878
>>701881
>>701887
>>701893
>>701895
>>701900
>>701911
>>701914
>>701933
What is the difference between uwti and dwti

>>707118
one goes up and one goes down.

>>707118
dwti goes up when oil goes down. uwti goes up when oil goes up. both are 3x the movement of oil.

>>707111
Wow!! That's half of last week.

Anyone get into dwti?

temped to short UWTI again. Going to wait to see if anything happens with Iran today.

So what now? There's 5mil in supply added to an already packed storage.
I'm sure demand will go up as the next few weeks go.
Is this the bottom?

The only thing I don't understand about UWTI and DWTI is when the 1.35 Expense Ration comes into play. For instance if you both make and lose money with them where exactly does that fee get taken out of?

Or am I only seeing this because Scottrade is my broker?

>>707137
Nope. Bought in last night to go to $50 today. Nearly hit my stop on the slump this morning, but held fast a made a load of money.

I wouldn't bet on it going past 50 today, I think the swing for the next while will be 46 - 51 and when it plateaus at 50, I reckon it's gonna drop.

Don't know when, don't know why - oil is a total gamble these days.

>>707181
If anything, demand will go down now that the thaw is hitting north america. My heating has been off for nearly a week now.

>Bullish inventory report
>Oil goes to low 50s
>Rigs start churning out more barrels to cover debt, while pricing is at its peak.
>surplus doubles by next week
>Pricing drops to high 40s

How plausible is this scenario?

>>707224
Anything seems plausible right now. Big swings every day makes this horrifically great.

>>707102
Working in Houston as well for an oil company. Literally 1 week into the job, the company got downsized by like 40%, and there's been rumors around the office that it's going to happen again..

I know this is out of context but how real is this gold rally?

>>707224

Supply is not as elastic as you would like to think.

But that doesn't mean that oil won't fall drastically in the weeks ahead.

>>707298
>gold rally

>go check 1, 3, and 6 month chart

>gold is negative for all time frames


kek, goldbugs... never learn

>>707181
I suspect we've seen it. Driving season is upon us and I think we'll see demand catch production... but first we have to see a lot of consolidation or busts.

Also the 4,8 million barrel inventory increase reminds me of what happened in Feb/March, when one week the inventories increased around 5 million barrels and the bulls were overhyped with joy, next week the inventories increased by almost 11 million barrels. So I wouldn't say we are out of the glut JUST yet... but I got a nice chance to buy DWTI a bit more.

>>707224
I think it's quite possible. that's why I won't be comfortable with oil until we see a lot of m&a's

>Iran deal extended another day

>>707310

Even if we are reducing to 4 million barrels instead of 8..

it's still positive.

lets say that it does go negative to negative 4 million out of storage.

448 million in storage divided by 4 million out of storage = 112 weeks to work through the glut.

That's 2 years of $60/barrel oil

The people calling bottom have no business calling it a bottom. At best it's the "new average price" of oil.. for a long time to come.

>>707298

the bubbles been popped, kid

>>707321
really? I guess they are all pretty serious about this, even though it's taking FOREVER to make the deal. I seriously hope they can work this through, and not even for my own sake.

>>707321
feels like something might actually get done.

I can easily see crude touching low 40s if Iran sanctions get removed immediately.

No one hit it big today with UWTI? Or is everyone still mostly bearish?

>>707387

It's more dangerous to be bullish right now then bearish, the fact that they're extending this nuclear deal, what 2 days now? Means that they're extremely close to getting the deal through and want it badly. Tensions in the middle east make the US/UK all the more wary of the nuclear capabilities. And if iran goes through with the deal they harm saudi arabia by lowering prices longer and they get money.

>>707417
Actually I think Saudis want a lower price, they have an easier time colluding with Iran than oil frackers. High oil prices and shortages in the 70s led to overinvestment and a big oil glut in the early 80s culminating in a crash in 86 where a ton of companies went bust. We know a crash will happen because Saudis want thes companies out of business, so the can gouge us again like the old days. Unfortunately it looks like it might take 4 years for this to happen like last time.

>>707451
I completely agree with your assessment, but god damn are the Saudis retarded.

There's no chance we'll let ourselves get gauged again. If they eliminate domestic oil, we'll just start seeing a shift towards renewables. The only way we'll continue buying their oil is if it stays extremely cheap permanently.

Renewables are already pretty viable. Hell maybe Iran will even make significant progress with those nuclear reactors that can benefit the world; but really that isn't even necessary.

Those camel fucking sand niggers are just shooting themselves in the foot, and I cant wait to see this blow up in their faces.

>>707638
>Those camel fucking sand niggers are just shooting themselves in the foot, and I cant wait to see this blow up in their faces.

Oh god fuck I want this to happen so bad.

>>707387
Made a hundred euro. Got out soon though, coulda made a hundred more

>>704779

oh boy here we go...

>>701875
who is the queen of /biz/?

>>708017

>>708018
Hail queen Yellen the Dove, the first in her name and ruler of all interest rates!

Also to be more on the topic: atm the pre-market for oil is around 48.80, came down by almost a dollar in the last hour. I'm riding in the DWTI car of this crazy train, and I don't know when to jump off.

>>708041
If there's no deal with Iran you know the bulls will push UWTI up.

>>708067

There wont be a deal. This has all been a misguided waste of time that was never actually going to happen. Dont believe the media, its been known for months it wasnt going to happen.

>>707387
too skittish... got in late and out early on the rally... made around $120. i'm just too scared to do much with oil right now.

>>708072
I'm with you man. This is all too crazy at this point it's just blind trades.

>>708069
it won't work in the long run... everybody knows that... but any sort of wink-wink, nod-nod, y'know-what-I-mean 'deal' in the meanwhile will be
1) indicative that the US will not be consuming lots of oil warring with iran
2) harbinger of greater and more flexible oil supply as iran's oil makes it into world markets with less restrictions

both of those results are negative for oil price and we could see oil dive. it doesn't matter if iran reneges on the 'deal' two months later... the market will have already moved and will readjust.

on the other hand, "no deal" is positive for oil prices and we will probably see >>708067

>>708083
although... with McCain advising Greatest Ally to take matters into their own hands if a deal is made, who knows what will happen.

+no deal
-nuke deal/end of sanctions
+war?
-oversupplied market?
-overproduction death-throes?
+consolidation of domestic producers
+increased demand because everything is awesome

>>707387

It's fucking wobbly at this point. One speculative news related to oil and I'll lose my fucking shirt. It's that fucking sensitive.

>>708119
I am on the same boat with you. Stress levels: maximum

in and out today -120. lost gain from yesterday. thought the rumor of deal reached would force a move but it's just sittin gthere eating guys like me.

LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) — Iran and six world powers have agreed on the outlines of an understanding to limit Iran's nuclear programs, officials told The Associated Press Thursday. Negotiations continued on a dispute over how much of it to make public.
...
The Iranians want any results from talks in the Swiss city of Lausanne described less as a deal and more of an informal understanding.

no wonder reaction is dead...
the US gvt will say it's a DEAL
and the Iranian gvt will say it's not a deal - it's an informal understanding

carry on as usual.

>this entire week

$PBR finally coming back after I bought in around ~$7. Thank you Jeebus.

>ever thinking Iranian sanctions were going to last forever
>not realizing that America was going to get closer to Iran
>not understand "keep your friends close, but your enemies closer."
>not realizing israel is our "closest" ally

Read on /pol/ we have a deal with Iran with some ammount of oil now entering the market. Any of this true?

>>708345
No deal has been agreed to yet, just an outline of a deal.

EU sanctions on Iran will most likely be lifted when the deal is due in June.

US sanctions is going to be tricky since Congress obviously won't lift them.

>>708361
Well if they let the oil flow into Europe it should still put downward pressure on the world market price for oil correct? I want Muh cheap gas.

>>708337
>ever thinking North Korean sanctions were going to last forever
>not realizing that America was going to get closer to North Korea
>not understand "keep your friends close, but your enemies closer."
>not realizing Israel is our "closest" ally

am I doing it right?

>>708365

We give aid to NK every time he makes a public announcement against the US. Is NK a buffer for China, or a buffer for America?

>>708371
its like a game of hot-potato. somebody is going to get burned with a zerg-rush. all the games of hot-potato I've seen have ended with a zerg-rush. those kims are clever.

>>708363
yes it should

Another thing is how SA and other OPEC members are going to react to this.

SA obviously doesn't want Iran to get richer and US shale companies are still producing like crazy.

Next bearish catalyst might be OPEC raising production rates

>>708383
>Next bearish catalyst might be OPEC raising production rates

might actually happen, if SA wants to stomp Iran & shale badly.

>>708395
Can they really hurt Iran that bad? Selling their oil for cheap has got to be better than what they've been dealing with under sanctions.

so how hard is oil gonna take the coming news? considering..it will take a few more months to solidify or so they say, and who knows how many months it'll take for the iranians to turn their oil pumps back on, even if it goes off without a hitch might not be 4-5 months till we see any iranian oil. still pretty bearish though.

we are literally sucking the world to shit, fucking bastards, there is nothing we can do

>>708994
They have millions in storage, India is ready to buy all of it as soon as sanctions decrease even slightly.

>>708241
and like me

>>708998
The world will be fine, it'll still be a moving ball of rock and magma in space with organic life on its surface.

We'll be dead though.

Well think I might consider that cycle a major fucking lottery.

Turned e25 into e200 riding lucky streaks though, so pretty stoked. Complete luck, with a little help from my friends

>>709737
E50? E200?

>>708395
Damnit I keep seeing SA and thinking "when did South Africa get involved?"

>>710618
Euros. Stupid canadian keyboard keeps forgetting the sign I deal in. Noinch

Latest news: oil is up
Hoping to see gains in UWTI.

>>712234
I hope not. I'm in dwti..

>>712234
>>712242
I wish there was a no-changeWTI

We could all make billions shorting it.

>>712242
I know more rigs will shut down after the Iran deal, and there will be no Iranian oil in 2015.

>>712281
And Saudis are raising prices as we speak.

>>712281
I'm in at 121.98. Should I get out or do you think I should just wait it out

>>712287
I would read the news early in the morning. But I wouldn't bet on oil prices dropping.

>>712287
Definitely sell.

It's dropping.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-05/record-gasoline-output-to-curb-biggest-u-s-oil-glut-in-85-years

If this is true then the storage problem might be resolved for the short term.

Looks like it might be a Bullish week for oil

>>712446
[hand rubbing intensifies]
And I only bought 400 shares of uwti.
I bet dwti will close below $100 today.

>>712460
You bought uwti on Friday?

>>707118
Do you even Finviz? Seriously anon, type those in to finviz, go to bottom of page that comes up, read description.

>>707292
That happened to me in 1984. Old oilfag here.

New to this section of the 4chin and trade oil for a company in Houston. Surprised I haven't seen any posts pertaining to oil (or natural gas) price volatility that dictates weekly and daily price ranges. That sort of stuff is taught to Goldman Sachs energy traders when they are new hires. (OK, read this book by Sheldon Natenburg to get a leg up on your competitors.) About 30 or so pages in all is revealed.

Also, haven't seen any posts about Mark Fisher of MBF. Andy gets the press but Mark has trained thousands of traders to trade oil one specific way as far as oil is concerned. His book is "The Logical Trader".

And I came here because I heard the Geezer Oil Trader posted here the other day. The Geezer used to post on a popular finance blog.

>>712576

the Geezer: >>711536

but check back in with us from time to time... it's nice to have a bit of input from 'real' traders.

>>712520
Last Monday.

Is there any truth to the idea that the Shale production in the Mid-Atlantic is going to fall off or is that just lib propaganda?

>UWTI too high
>DWTI looks soo good, but conflicted by seasonal bullish sentiment.
>Iran deal cocktease.
>Inventories not even sure where its going.

I want to touch oil, but I don't want to touch oil.

Probably gonna take a chance and pick up 100 shares DWTI once it drops below $100... I'd like to see a little dip in oil (WTI) prices back down to $47-$45 sometime in the next couple of weeks, I just paid my taxes and could use some extra spending money.

>>712712

is this after or before it hits $56?

>>712720
I dunno about $56.. I'm expecting somewhere closer to $52-$53, then a quick correction down to the upper $40's.

>>712576
seems like WTI is respecting 5m and 15m moving averages (50/200)s, along with opening range extensions more than the old ABC fisher stuff. i dont even run it on my charts anymore.

>>712760
im using 9-9:45 est for opening range btw. seems like mark was always fiddling with timing. i havent gotten his acd memos in a few years

Phew, sold my DWTI with a loss and jumped ship to UWTI, almost got my losses back already... debating if I should ride UWTI the whole week? Everything seems like a huge rollercoaster now, compared to how things looked back at February for oil. What do you guys think?

>>712774

i feel much safer bullish right now then bearish, wouldn't be surprised if inventory reports this week will be "bullish" again and the market will just rally off of it. the only news i could think of that could have gotten in the way of oil going higher was iran but even then we all know it's months till we'll be seeing their oil in the market.

>>712779
Exactly what I was thinking too... I went into DWTI last week, thinking that things would go well with Iran and that last inventory report would be bearish... silly me. I think all the signs now point for a bullish sentiment on the market. I don't really know what would make things go bearish again, but I guess they don't really need to, we just need to be on the right side of the market.

>>712774
>>712779
Looking at the WTI chart I'm expecting hard resistance at around $52.50 that will bring about a downward correction this week. I'd pin this weeks absolute maximum at $54.25 but I really don't think it'll hit that. We'll see what happens though.

>>712786

kek i did the same thing i honestly knew it was a bad idea, i made great profit from dwti the first time around, tried going into erx, got impatient and went dwti again. silly of me. after taking profit finally you want to replicate it so badly, talk about a bad decision, but you live and learn.

Ended up grabbing 100 shares of DWTI at $96.55 late in the trading day, fingers crossed hoping oil shits the bed again this week.

>>713032
Despite Asian oil prices and oil futures?

>>712683
There's only basalt in the mid Atlantic mate, no shale

If you mean in the states, then yes. No new Wells, and all existing Wells will produce at a greatly declining ratr

>>713225
Yes, I think that technical factors such as previous resistance levels in the $52-$54 range that haven't been broken yet in 2015 will cause the price of WTI to retreat for a couple of days at least. The downward "correction" will likely play out by the end of the week and we'll see the price move upwards again Thu or Fri. Just one amateur's opinion of course, no one should trade anything based off any opinion of mine.

New day starting gents. WTI is currently at 51.41 and it seems like there is a bit of downward pressure atm. Strap yourselves in and enjoy a new day and a new ride.

LOAD UP ON UWTI

>>713910
>tfw I condidered selling it all at opening
I'm glad I didn't.

>>713929
same here. that opening was rough and I was really doubting my decision to hold over from yesterday...

Bought UWTI at 2.73, sold at 2.85. Could've waited longer though, but I'm happy. The questin is, should I still buy my position back? EIA report comes in tomorrow, and who knows what kind of a gamble that will be...

>>713938
I've shorted so hoping were in for a crash back to the forties. What made you buy? Inventory on the way?

Good luck to all on this wild ride

>>713943
Leaks show Saudis will raise it over the next few months. A sell off would be happening today if it wasn't for that.

I should also mention GASL for your consideration. I bought at 3.5 Monday.

>>713943

Feels like a speculation run. You could lose your shirt tomorrow.

>>713944
I bought just on market sentiment. Nothing else has been working for me for the past month really... just watch what happens on opening, buy into the direction it's moving with tight stops. Small purchases... but enough to make it worthwhile. I held my position overnight because I had a head-rush from the climb yesterday and was feeling giddy and indestructible. foolhardy even.
held thru opening today (sweating balls) because action happens about 45 minutes in (or thereabouts) and got lucky.

luck.

>>713960
This is very true for me as well except I woke up late to check UWTI and It was already trending up lol

>>713949
what leak?

sold my dwti yesterday morning doubled up on uwti made back what i lost and then some, just woke up. if invetory report is bullish it'll ride up to 54/55 i'll probably hold until then.

>>714030
I think the EIA report is being priced in with this move.

If EIA is slightly bearish, Oil will drop hard.

http://stocktwits.com/message/35046217
The never-ending tears

>>714077
Holy shit 73k lol

>>714077

top kek i find it funny people can't close out a bad position and switch, i mean its not like buying apple there's always 2 ways to go in on it. they're too busy looking at fundamentals when all that's happening is a repeat of january/february oil pricing, bounce off important resistance line ($44) nothing in the way to push oil down anymore, even if production is still high lower rig count and actually reduced production (still massive mind you compared to previous years) is enough to push bullish sentiment back up.

This growth isn't sustainable, but when will the bull train halt? I'm considering entering short today. Anyone else? Sentiment is probably drying up after these massive spikes

>>714099

if the report is bullish tomorrow..everyone getting in dwti is just going to be further burnt.

>>714103
But we still have a massive supply glut. Are they just looking for rig drops?

>>714093
i don't understand what these people are thinking. these leveraged funds are crazy risky and i never risk what i'm not willing to lose. c'mon... stop loss and know when to just get out. i fret about a few hundred... 73k? that's just stupid, desperate, or greedy.

We're going to either see a massive oil dip tomorrow or a sustained uptrend.

Fundamentals are almost bullish now assuming it's true Cushing won't ever hit their storage limit.

>>714153
this is it, men, i'm riding my $3 uwti all the way up to $25! yee-haw!!!

>>714160
Oil will most likely keep rising until June.

>>714167
>>714160
>>714153

>tfw stocktwits will be blowing up with people who will be losing thousands.

>>714167
I want to get into uwti right now but the report tomorrow.. Don't want to risk it

>>714171
keep hugging your dwti anchor, sailor, and send up a few bubbles when it finally hits bottom!

Holding UWTI should be safe till report right? I think I'm going to hold. I got in at 2.52

>>714153
> Cushing won't ever hit their storage limit.

who is saying this?

>>714172
All signs in the news point to higher oil demand and summer is coming. US is at it's peak production.

>>714192
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-05/record-gasoline-output-to-curb-biggest-u-s-oil-glut-in-85-years

>>714194
>US is at it's peak production

which is why there's a good chance OPEC might pick up the slack to apply more pressure to shale companies.

>>714189
i wouldnt hold it

>>714197
I sold it. Realized 3k not bad

UWTI up after hours lol oh well. I'll go with a bigger bet tomorrow.

>>714188

kek i got in uwti at 2.66 i mean for all the people holding dwti. don't worry captain i'm not jumping ship yet.

>>714198
lol, shit. just in time to miss another spike.

3k is pretty sweet and you won't be worrying about it tomorrow morning

>>714204
I feel good. My head isn't hurting and I can finally reply to my wife who text me saying she's on her meal break 30 minutes ago lol. See y'all tomorrow.

>>714197
>>714198
It's like you guys think it will be raining oil for the next couple of months.

>>714201
>>714203
i try not to hold these leveraged funds overnight. i've been burned so hard before that i even exit at a loss end of day just to stay in control.

>>714209

my first BIG profit trading since i really got serious in December was after holding dwti for a month and a half. I'm not worried about holding if i have confidence in the direction, it's when i make an impulsive trade and get caught in the middle that i dislike. It's always good to be safe though.

>>714203
This

I got in at 2.68 and again at 3.00, and I'm not worried a all for tomorrow

>>714207
pretty nice, anon. you're about 8% better than me with your uwti because i don't hold overnight. i'm ok with that though... i've been stuck in uwti in a downtrend and it really messed with my evenings.

>>714214
the problem now is that direction isn't as clear. i'm thinking about looking into rusl. i may be too late but it won't hurt to educate myself on russia

if EIA report is anywhere near API's numbers then Oil is going to tank

>>714233
Uwti at 3.01 now from 3.11

>>714233

uhhg

>>714238
And I was about to buy some shares last minute too

>>714240
better safe than sorry. i'll be sleeping fine tonight.

>>714230

if you're willing to hold rusl for half a year you're pretty much guaranteed to make a profit as long as oil keeps going up. i considered it earlier in the year but it's just one of those things you have to be in for the long haul. i don't have enough capital to be tied up too long.

12m vs 3m

Imagine if EIA reports even bigger numbers.

>>714253
i don't even know what it means anymore.

i don't think anyone does: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/07/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0MX01T20150407

this bullish-everything-is-awesome 'news' was posted at 3.30 (before API)...

>>714253
>>714263

api has been wrong a few times though if i'm not mistaken i thought everyone stopped trusting them. i'll make money tomorrow even if things are bearish, not as much of course, my gains are already cut by quite a bit.

>>714266
yeah... they've been VERY wrong before. we'll see tomorrow. have a good evening everybody.

>>714266
it at least gives a look on how oil is going to react if the EIA report is bad.

Dollar almost back to pre bad job reports levels too. Tomorrow is going to be insane

>>714266
There has been a growing discrepancy between the two, but generally the market seems to have been reacting to both.

Genscape report said Cushing is down 300k, though, so it's possible this API number is a true whiff.

>>714304
API is going to lose all credibility if their report is that big of a miss

>>714304
>Genscape
Seems to me a few people at genscape or someone in cushing made a "mistake"..

Here's how I see this situation playing out:
>API reporting 12.2 mil barrel increase
>EIA reports only an ~8 mil increase
>bulls take this as being great news
>WTI up to $55
>I jump off a bridge because this shit doesn't make any sense

>>714409
second.

>>714409
>yfw da bears win the oil bowl

>>714409
>EIA reports even higher numbers than API

>>714457
Would buy dwti instantly

>>714409

This sounds so plausible, I switched to natural gas.

>>714409
lol. this is pure wizardry!

>>714192
>http://stocktwits.com/message/35046217
Why would they?

Takes no time to erect a couple million dollar tanks, and god knows there's enough unemployed (read:cheap) welders out there coming home from oil patches

>>714525

a lot of the people on this stocktwit thing are so full of themselves its ridiculous. they pump out their biased facts and knowledge while patting themselves on the back as they're down thousands and thousands of dollars.

>>714525
No, it doesn't work like that. I think you have absolutely no exposure to the time frame of construction and permits, especially storage for hazardous material.

Anyway, its been posted at least once in one of the oil threads so I'm not gonna bother spoon feeding you why this is an ignorant statement.

>>714642
Actually I work there, and it is, things get expedited in times of need.

But whatevs, you know more I guess. Now let's move on

>SA increased production
>highest record rate ever

Tomorrow is going to be a fucking circus

>>714077
Suicide watch for this guy tomorrow. The news is good for oil.

>>714219
You'll miss out on a lot.

Oil can be stored anywhere, it's a really flexible system.

>>714782
oh buddy you're not going to like tomorrow. Just got out of uwti by the way.

I'm thinking of jumping into dwti at open. Good idea?

>>714952
I'm not buying into anything before EIA report. Plenty of time to ride the wave after that.

>>714959
Yes once the report comes out we should have a pretty good idea where the whole market is headed for the following week.

>>714952
I don't know if it is a good idea but that is what i'm doing. i'm prepared to pull out quickly at a loss though.

Where can I find the API report when it's posted?

>>714995
hmm... the OP didn't transfer any of the FAQ links..

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

>>714995
>>715000
just noticed you said "API"... uhm... I don't know. I use this: https://www.tradingfloor.com/calendar/us-api-weekly-statistical-bulletin

Hey guys, I have a question regarding the Shell-BG merger : why did the former's share price drop when the merger was announced? why did the latter's drop ? Thanks

>>715010
why did the latter's increase* srry

>>715010

Speculation here, but here is what I think.
BG was in the shitter, any news is good for them.
Shell will need to spend a lot of money taking the new people in and they're an oil company so natural gas isn't their forte. There will be a learning curve before they can make use of BG and make a profit.

>>715000
OP must have been distracted by cock

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/

Nembers out weeee DWTI

nuohgod

>10.9million barrels

Ahahaha, oh my fucking sides

The glut is alive and kicking.

Brand new to this (and don't even have an account to get in on it), but it's fun to watch.

got in dwti at 94.79

>>715054
What do you think it will go to?

Oil is breaking some serious support here. In at 92.57 DWTI

>>715057
If I set up an account now would I have enough time to get in on this? (new)

>>715059
no you moron

>>715065
Like I said new, but thanks.

>>715059

Go to the casino. That's how unpredictable oil is right now, since It's sensitive to too many factors.

>>715059
It depends if the trend continues for the rest of the week. No one has the answer to that.

Out DWTI at 97.35 for $950 in profit, bought pre market. It could have done the opposite though. (but that's why we have stops).

I got in at the foot of the spike at 92.70 and got trailing-stopped-out at 98.15. I'm happy. Made back a nice chunk of what it's cost me so far

>>715073
Nice, initial investment?

>>715076
$18,521. Could have used a lot more with margin, oh well.

>>715077
Shit, wish I had that to work with.

so do we hit high 40's this week or is it a mystery to everybody. 1 and 1/2 dollar drop seems pretty weak for 10 million barrels.

even though US production is slightly decreasing, SA is increasing their production to regain market share.

Made a nice 250€ profit with 6000€ in about ½ hour. Got out maybe a bit too early, but I've been burned too many times. I'll bet on the stronger side every day and ride with it.

New thread up, this one hit the bump limit:
>>715121

Unrelated question, but I didn't want to start my own thread:
Will having a credit card with no activity affect my credit score in any way? I have 2 cards but I only use 1. The other one has been inactive for over a year and I'm worried about that affecting my score. Should I just cancel that card (It's an AMEX)? Would canceling a card with a 0 balance affect my score? Thanks and sorry for mucking up this thread.