/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>6942894
>prop futures firm in Chicago
hiring? local, C/ Java, algo/math skillz... been wanting to break into it for a while...

>>6942894
welcome back. if BTC drops to triple digits I'm hanging myself.

>>6942894

Bump.

>>6942894

Bitcoin dropping from 18k to 1k are you serious? Almost seems laughable.

Don’t get me wrong I love your posts even if you are larping, it’s interestinf as fuck regardless. But a drop of 17k in price is almost absurd.

Wouldn’t you suggest shorting from 18k then?

So we all know bitcoin cannot go down in the short term (around three months) because of tethers, but it could trade sideways; however, that will not happen either.

I know most of you don't look into forex or anything else. Right now the USD is plummeting in value, partly due to many things. There is a rumor going around that China with support from Germany and a few other liberal European players will downgrade the United State's debt rating. What this means is that the debt is riskier and we have to pay more on the interest, making it harder for Trump to release new bonds to fund his projects and damage his "legacy" for his next election. For example, the USD index has lost about 14% of it's value and 20% against the Euro. This is why Trump selected a new Federal reserve chair today. He may tell the new Fed to not raise interest rates, as planned because of this.

The dollar is important because people see failing "fiat" currencies as a reason to go into gold and crypto. Crypto and gold will both rise, but as I have explained, the average Joe is looking to flee that market. At some point, with both of these assets on the rise, Gold will explode higher because the money will finally be free around 18440 bitcoin. looking for a target of 1450, then 1650 with not too much trouble, possibly higher on Gold.

The US dollar will continue to fall, dropping down to about $1.40-1 Euro. Stocks will continue. Oil will hit $89 WTI by Q4 as that is the quarter OPEC says oil will be rebalanced Brent $100. This will all be aided by USD falling.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Here's something that nobody really understand with how market cycles really work. If you go to the link I've provided above and look at the Dow Jones 100 year historical charts and make sure they're adjusted for inflation, it may be clear to you that the markets trade sideways around half the time.

Adjusted for inflation the Great depression in 1929 didn't break the previous high for 25 years. Similarily, 1980's were completely flat due to inflation, but markets went "up" technically.

In our lifetimes we are familiar with this, 2000-2013 the S&P didn't break the high made in 2000.

What does that mean? It means that assets behave irrationally and then do nothing. Particular fundamental causes skyrocket every asset class all at once for a period of time and then do nothing for a VERY long time. This could be due to presidents, war etc.

You will hear everyone who knows just a little about investing thinking that there will be a big dip this year of around 10% in S&P because it went up around 25% last year and historical average is 7%. They are wrong.

Long term traders are aware of this, so they are leveraging themselves as much as possible to pump whatever they can for as long as this lasts. This is why warren buffet says be greedy when others are fearful, he didn't mean be greedy during recessions as during those times many companies are not making money, which is against his investment philosophy.

So when I said before that Oil will skyrocket and Gold will skyrocket, it's only a result of a number of other markets doing the same, it doesn't really matter what it is.

Think of it like this, you're a bank and make a few billion on the S&P last year, but it's getting too risky to keep buying, so you find another sleepy market to invest that few billion into to "diversify." That market will then start "breaking out" and as it does they sell a bit at a time and buy dips to increase leverage.

>>6943150
>There is a rumor going around that China with support from Germany and a few other liberal European players will downgrade the United State's debt rating.
can you link some of this. proof of rumours and where a brainlet can view historical evidence of the US debt rating

>>6943451
crypto isnt like these markets it is fundamentally useful to a whole class of people who do not have access to the american stock market

>>6943451
go on......

>>6943451

As an addendum to this. If you see it happen once, you will see it happen across a number of different diversified groups, it just happens in a specific order, Emerging markets, biopharmaceutical, etc.

People will say certain stocks are not behaving rationally and in a lot of cases since people just buy ETFs the pessimists are probably correct.

However, there's only a small window and it begins with people thinking things are rising irrationally, then they capitulate and trends die in Euphoria.

I heard that Netflix has a P/E ratio of 600+ from somebody today. Think about that. If someone bought that company from the Edward the black prince during the 100 years war in France, they would just be breaking even this year.

Netflix would require a user base of 1billion just to have that ratio at around 25-35.

One day people will all say, well of course it was overvalued, if there is a recession and people lose their hats. Today? It doesn't matter.

I think you guys see a lot of the pumping of assets with crypto. There will be an accumulation phase and then pump/dumb. The difference is that when this happens in normal markets there are more people to absorb the dump and offer better liquidity to the people who created the trend. The "funds" will eventually buy these things for the sake of diversification.

somehow i can't see btc losing 95% of its value. adoption rates are low among normals anyway, the pump is due to whales and bots.

There is no way btc will drop to 1k over a short period of time
The reason you dont understand the dow jones is because you arent using a constant yardstick. No cpi does not account for loss of purchasing powet of the dollar because it puts the price of consumer goods as a benchmark when the purchasing power cost of consumer goods has been decreasing exponentially since the industrial revolution. If you want to see the pattern in the dji price it in gold. China is moving against the petro dollar because it has grown powerful and has not eaged war on every oil producing country since the 1960s. Crypto is the one thing that can stop world reserve petro yuan backed in gold apart from wwiii which looks ripe for the picking in north korea

>>6943451
literally no one cares about gold anymore.
With the dollar failing and people get back to where they were before in crypto there's no way they're gonna think "Oh, might as well take a chance with gold, fuck it"

>>6942894
Wanna grab a beer after work sometime? I'm normally downtown. Been in crypto for a few years now and well into six figures. Let's chat!

>>6942970
If btc drops to triple digits I will literally buy as much as I can

>>6943655
>>6943655
what do u think of clif high's prediction of 100k. he was right last year and he has data to look at the noone else does.

Good stuff. We need more of this around here.

>>6943679
>>6943749

Of course nobody cares about Gold, it has been trading sideways for over 2000 years. In ancient Rome an ounce of Gold would buy a nobleman a fine tunic a fine leather belt and a fine pair of leather sandals. In todays terms, $1300 buys a nice suit/belt/shoes.

It only protects against inflation.

>>6943484

It's just something that happens when you work in these places. If it seems possible then the idea spreads. It doesn't matter if it happens or not because it's reflected in the price action

>>6943797
Maybe you fucking homos can toss eachother off in the men's room.

Remember when you introduce your new boyfriend to your parents to be sure to let them know you met on a porn website known for hentai and child pornography

>>6943901
>gold trades sideways
>gold can't bubble
>gold protects against inflation

No one's gonna buy shit gold and even if they did it would just bubble more and pop

>>6942894
I'm going to take a wild guess that this is bitfinex'd and he is pulling a last ditch effort to buy his coins back at $1000.
If not, he's a larper memeing.

>>6943901
so nowhere I can look at US debt rating.
Realistically what should I do between right now and the end of the year

>>6943926
What the fuck?

>>6942894
Create a tripcode faggot

>>6943451
>>6943655
>The difference is that when this happens in normal markets there are more people to absorb the dump and offer better liquidity to the people who created the trend. The "funds" will eventually buy these things for the sake of diversification.
so you're saying crypto will be + $2 trillion market cap?
https://youtu.be/VosfxChTxVg
anon you sound very similar to what vitalik is saying towards the end of this video, snowball effect of ppl buying for diversification.

>Here's something that nobody really understand with how market cycles really work.
george soros understands, and so do i

>So when I said before that Oil will skyrocket and Gold will skyrocket, it's only a result of a number of other markets doing the same, it doesn't really matter what it is.
so anon are you holding gold and crypto at a 1:1 ratio?

>For example, the USD index has lost about 14% of it's value and 20% against the Euro. This is why Trump selected a new Federal reserve chair today. He may tell the new Fed to not raise interest rates, as planned because of this.
so why aren't more U.S. citizens buying crypto as the dollar collapses? also why is Peter Schiff always right?

>The tether problem will explode eventually, but it won't now. It's estimated that only 6-10% of all "fiat" money in bitcoin at the moment is tether aka artificial. It's a small percentage of total market cap, but that's really not the same thing. Think 40 billion created 250 billion in market cap with slippage etc.
you do know bitfinex has literally $1.6 billion in Taiwanese banks. phil potter has already confirmed this. there is $1 in a bank somewhere in this world for each tether supply that exists. also you say eventually, so why the fuck would you try to time this and not buy the tether pump?

>As a result you will see 10k-18k-1k...
kek

>>6943901
The only way to measure the price of something across time is with gold. Everything degrades relative to gold with time making it the value datum. Using anything but gold to look at price overtime is like measuring the length of football field with a yardstick that changes every year and then saying the length of the field is changing.

>>6944014
KYS faggot
You and your new internet boyfriend

I was studying Murphy and from that my view is that the economic expansion phase of the cycle is on. seeing things consistent with that like rising commodities, yields, foreign currencies, energy, falling dollar, bonds, utilities, financials, etc.

>>6944055
Are you gay?

>>6944055
>>6944084
cause it's ok if you are
everyone's a little gay

>>6942894
wtf OP.....Your "alias" is my actual name. This is seriously fucking with me....it has to mean something

>>6943797
kys reddit

>>6942894
this is so dumb LOL sub 1k BTC? fuck off. sub 10k would have been a more believable LARP. OP you have brain damage for suggesting this.

>>6944126
Wanna grab a beer?

>>6943076
>>6942970

I also forgot to say that the initial buying of Bitcoin into this reversal will happen during the US/Euro trading day and not the Asian, even though the Asian markets have higher trading volume of crypto.

There's a certain order and personality to the way the day is handed off to the next day zone. The West created the last crypto pitfall and I've never really seen the Americans wake up and get caught in an unsuspected directional change without making the breakout reverse back to baseline and slightly past that to create a bear trap to get fills.

It's counter productive to create a new trend when a lot of the volume of the day is just trying to get fill, so Asia will have to wait. This sounds totally bonkers, but it's just something that happens.

>>6942894
Haha. $1k. Bitcoin will never be under $5K for at least a few years. Hard pass.

>>6944146
>The West created the last crypto pitfall
You're gonna have to start providing more credibility. For instance how much experience do you have?

Is this the first time you've been involved in crypto? At this point I'm pretty sure I have more experience in both crypto AND prop trading than you.

>>6944146
alright, this is 100% larp, leaving the thread
sage

>>6944146
>This sounds totally bonkers, but it's just something that happens.
k i believe you internet anon

>>6944191
>>6944146
Just from reading this post OP has tipped his hand that he's got more knowledge than most, there's certain specific characteristics about the sessions the fact that OP knows about either means hes really extremely observant or someone taught him and they dont just teach anyone but one you learn it, its soo obvious your jaw would hit the floor.

OP says something very contrarian and you all attack him
the quality of posts on /biz/ are clearly pajeetistani.
OP thanks for the detailed analysis and for your thoughts. i highly disagree with you in terms of BTC falling back to triple digits. I can only see this happening if G20 politicians take Orwellian measures to suffocate crypto and criminalize anyone who has a portfolio/mines it. but because in the west we like to think that we live in a democracy the people will fight back. and the harder the government pulls the more the people will push because it would be proving a very important point and that is they are afraid of it's success which is ironically bullish news for crypto. you failed to explain your reasons for it's demise to triple digits. go ahead

>>6944047

It's unproven that there is anything backing tether, but that is something for another time.

>>6944141
>>6944185

You guys have all seen the typical asset deflation graph, you are currently about to start the "return to normal."

$900USD/BTC is below the mean.

>>6942970
>>6943076

Why don't we discuss why the Dip is happening at this point in the first place and why tether was created? I'm not sure exactly, but I've started a hypothesis.

Think of Satoshi, he's anonymous with at it's peak around 17 billion worth in Bitcoin. He was almost the richest man in the world, but he didn't sell. Bitcoin is having genuine issues with block size and competition from other cryptos, Bcash etc. There are improvements coming for Bitcoin, but it takes time > 1 year. One of the major issues with Bitcoin is that it really has to be kept inefficient.

https://tim.blog/2017/06/04/nick-szabo/

>Listen to this podcast with some of the creators of Cypto, it will give you an idea. They don't even believe Satoshi is a single person, but a group because of how advanced blockchain coding was to create-- of course they do since they didn't figure it out.

They argue that Bitcoin needs another layer of coding on top of it to handle small transactions (Starbucks) but it doesn't have that. So now bitcoin is being threatened at a relatively vulnerable time in it's existence.

So now back to Satoshi. First, I don't think he will sell until he is the richest man in the world because I have never heard of anybody deciding that it is "good enough" at 17 billion. Secondly, as we have seen from tether, two billion in buys can do quite a lot to prop up a market, let alone 17 billion in sells. The market liquidity needs to be exponentially higher than it is today for him to get out- he is trapped.

This person can't really sell, however, he is under threat. I haven't connected this dot yet, but it's convenient that there would be a crypto depression because it would thin the herd.

>>6944301
You've obviously never worked for a bank or a prop shop. OP is saying pretty basic things which were likely provided to him in an email from New York based analysts.

In fact I'm almost certain this is where OP got his information. The dollar weakness stuff is all en vogue right now after Mnuchin and Trump's comments. China/Germany thing has been a rumor for a while now in financial circles.

What's your age & profession? Probably young and a student, right?

>>6944301
your larp is stupid and so is anyone suggesting BTC can go under 1k this year.

>>6944301
did you also know that OP is a faggot?

>>6943926

Kek

>>6944378
Lightning Network already has nodes running on mainnet. There is a lot of hype surrounding that, probably enough to give us at least one more freakish BTC bullrun this year in anticipation of that. Also Satoshi is obviously dead.

>>6944146
>US/Euro/Asian trading day
>in crypto
when the fuck will this meme end. This isnt the stock market where they have an actual closing time per day. Crypto doesnt sleep and the people from the US trading crypto, the majority of them are synced to the European and Asian day times because that is when all the major pumps start
its only the retarded day trading americans who start buying mid to late pumps, and its always them who get burned when it dumps, its alway them who panic sell which is why we see the dumps during mid to late afternoon us day time

>>6942894

Interesting post, thanks OP.

Don't wanna add to the fud, but I've had a weird feeling over the past few day about eth crashing hard over the next 2 months.

>>6944382
> The dollar weakness stuff is all en vogue right now after Mnuchin and Trump's comments. China/Germany thing has been a rumor for a while now in financial circles.
I skimmed the other pots but I was not referring to all the other posts, I wast just the reference to the sessions. Theres specific repeating characteristics in FX in the different sessions and nobody publicly talks about it.

>>6944378
>https://tim.blog/2017/06/04/nick-szabo/
is this the hour long one with naval? because i have listened to that 3 times now.

>>6944378
>$900USD/BTC is below the mean.
so are you setting buy orders @ $900?

also can you answer my questions to whether you hold any crypto?

>>6944378

>They argue that Bitcoin needs another layer of coding on top of it to handle small transactions (Starbucks) but it doesn't have that.
lightning network is now on the mainnet as of two weeks ago. here are all the current nodes / channels currently running https://explorer.acinq.co/#/

>This person can't really sell, however, he is under threat. I haven't connected this dot yet, but it's convenient that there would be a crypto depression because it would thin the herd.
i am pretty sure satoshi didn't create bitcoin to be the richest person in the world. also those 1 million BTC still haven't moved since like 2011 and i highly doubt they ever will

>>6944490
>anon has weird feeling about crypto price
fascinating

>>6944512
>Theres specific repeating characteristics in FX in the different sessions and nobody publicly talks about it.
We all talk about it. I'm lost on how that applies to crypto, however.

OP is a faggot larper

>>6944549
Your right, this is a crypto only board so I shouldnt have brought fx up. I'll delete my posts, and I'd like to be able to never come back but we already know that we each will never be able to leave.

>>6944191
>>6944232

It's not a conspiracy that Bitcoin dropped the most during the last dip during trading hours when Asia was asleep, that's all I meant.

>>6944378

Back to what I was really interested in seeing if people could discuss....

Suddenly a large portion of cryptos threatening a few more legitimate ones disappear. Bitcoin may not be the best, but is improving.

A key difference is that the creators of Litecoin and Ethereum sell out after they IPO, or at least partially in the case of Ethereum leaving low long term confidence in those compared to BTC. Think of it like Elon musk and Tesla, Satoshi is still holding.

I don't yet see how he could have assisted in a crash though, even though it would seem logical for him that he should in an attempt to make his coin come out on the other side in a few years with the same relevance in the space.

>>6944392
>>6944397

I may not have more knowledge than most, but I know more than some people on Biz. I think people do not understand how long trends go on for. Bitcoin not gaining any value for even a few months causes quite a lot of capital flight because the people holding it are all 18 and trying to make money this week. I do not think the G20 will attempt to intervene.

>>6944632
>It's not a conspiracy that Bitcoin dropped the most during the last dip during trading hours when Asia was asleep, that's all I meant.

The last crash was in 2014 and it was caused by Mt. Gox. Since then Chinese investors have dominated crypto. They are now heavily active in Korean exchanges which is why the Korean gov't is implementing more stringent KYC/AML.

The correction from 19.5k to ~9k was just that, a correction. It has nothing to do with any concerned parties and was simply the result of BTC going from less than $1k to over $19k in the space of one year.

How long you been in? Fuck I bet I've got more money than you. Are you over $250k?

I'm not impressed bro.

>>6944632
>because the people holding it are all 18 and trying to make money this week
what about winklevoss twins, peter theil, tim draper, and other +$100 mil crypto venture capitalists who are holding till 2025? are you just claiming that BTC is going to be in similar bear market as 2014 / 2015 ? if so that is fair. or are you saying BTC is going to be worth nothing in 10 years?

>>6944632
anon answer some of my questions >>6944523

>>6944632
vitalik still holds +$300 million in ether
https://etherscan.io/address/0xab5801a7d398351b8be11c439e05c5b3259aec9b

charlie lee probably sold because (((they))) where after him. also litecoin never did an ICO

>>6944632
>he thinks crypto traders sleep
memer confirmed
by the way I think satoshi is either dead or waiting for btc to become the world reserve currency.

>>6942894
What's your opinion on gold and silver? Do you think this breakout is legit?

>>6944752
When you collect all th bitcorns, Satoshi comes down from heaven and grants you immortality.

It's 7 AM here and I've been up for nearly 35 hours, so I can't be bothered getting into a discussion. But god damn, you're wrong.

BTC will surely retrace at some point in the future, but in no way, shape or form how you describe it; neither cause or timeline.

t. quant on coke

>>6944804
You should treat gold/silver like any cryptocurrency. I personally hold about 10% of my portfolio in precious metals. You can buy gold/silver with bitcoin from jmbullion.com

It's an excellent method of taking profits.

>>6942894
>Nobody is willing to short Bitcoin through the printing and effective QE

QE would be adding more BTC to the 'system' to lower/stabilize its price. BTC is neither a currency nor an asset, so there's no point in pretending it's anything other than a ponzi scam. This should be blatantly apparent to anyone working at a prop shop dealing with derivatives as a profession.

>Bitcoin will rise to 18,440 give +/- 300 at which point it will fall to 1k, possible triple digits.

You are correct that it will revert to a sub-$1K level in the near future, at which point the govt will get involved declaring new regulations to "protect" people...when in reality this was just another bit of social engineering.

>It's important to understand who bought up the price of bitcoin from 10k-20k in such a short period of time. It was the average joe, mechanic investor with his life savings.

Wrong. The bag holder crew, which includes most of the fools on here reading this, jumped in AFTER the price was pumped. It rose due to activity primarily in Asian countries. Joe Blow and the millenial derpers who cannot distinguish between PRICE and VALUE were fooled into buying crypto - all of which is a massive ponzi scam.

The intent of crypto was specifically to suck fiat out of the economy as a way to prop up the dollar. Because all crypto has ZERO value and can never have more than ZERO value, whatever fiat you put in will become your loss. You cannot cash out any significant amount, and no exchange is obligated to honor any crypto:fiat price so they can just shut down and walk away with the money you gave them and you won't be able to do anything about it.

>>6944490

Well ETH had its first dip when the creators said they were selling quite a lot to buy Swiss francs to fund their expenditures for what they said was the next six months. Six months from then is sometime in February; it wouldn't be unreasonable for people to sit out some and wait to see if they sell more, or whatever else they may do. Not sure how much they sold though, you would have to look it up and make a decision on wether it's a big deal or not.

>>6944523

I do believe it is that talk, it's incredibly interesting to hear from them. I'll look at your link.

I don't hold crypto because I would like to keep my money on an exchange to trade on weekends for fun. On the other hand, I have enough money I would invest that I don't want it to be hacked. It's probably a good thing though, way too much stress as is.

I might put some orders at $400. At the moment it's way too far away for me to really think about. I think if 7600 would break you would start seeing blood in the water though. I generally don't see trends continue after they break a .618 retrace; If they do, they normally return to baseline.

>Do you think that Satoshi is more than one person then?

>Any thoughts on why he wouldn't ever sell?

>>6944611

Leonardo Da Vinci was a homosexual pedophile. Not relevant, but I'm reading a biography on him.

>>6942894
>If you look at markets and recessions, they all typically end at 50% and that is what people are comfortable being trapped at max with for whatever reason.

That's because all "recessions" as well as the financial markets are fundamentally controlled and manipulated by the NWO via their central banks. Most of the world fell victim to central banks post WW2, and the main purpose of WW2 was to allow the banksters to consolidate real property by buying it for pennies post-war. All euro and asian countries are under full central bank control. Smaller countries are controlled via the IMF. The USA has been subject to the unconstitutional federal reserve act since 1913. The fed reserve is a private bank operated mostly by foreign entities.

Nothing that has happened in any of the markets since the war of 1812 has been "real" or organic - shitcoins are not excluded from this, and anyone here who actually thinks that central banks would allow direct competition to their money printing monopoly without a sinister agenda are complete morons (which is probably why they're buying crypto).

>Think of Satoshi, he's anonymous with at it's peak around 17 billion worth in Bitcoin.

He, or they, could not sell even if they wanted to because the existing "market cap" for all crypto is a massive fraud. All of the exchanges combined could maybe float a market cap of $1K for BTC. That's about all.

>>6944834
my nibba

>>6942894
I understand the basics of what Tether does, but I'm a retard, why will it cause problems if they print their own coins to stabilize the price with USD?

>>6942894
KEKKK
Nobody is willing to short Bitcoin through the printing and effective QE (quantitative easing) that is tether

>>6944931
Insolvency

>>6944894
>e, or they, could not sell even if they wanted to because the existing "market cap" for all crypto is a massive fraud. All of the exchanges combined could maybe float a market cap of $1K for BTC. That's about all.

a 1k market cap? are you drunk? You must be confusing it with some other metric. It's just price * circulating supply and nothing else. Of course in practice you can't sell all of it without causing the price to fall.

>>6944872
>I don't hold crypto because I would like to keep my money on an exchange to trade on weekends for fun. On the other hand, I have enough money I would invest that I don't want it to be hacked.
i have no clue what you're saying here but you sound like a no coiners

>>6944871
how dense are you
dont confuse all cryptocurrencies with one another
research this more.
if a certain cryptocurrency has a max amount, this amount can NEVER be increased
and this is all verifiable by anyone in the world with an internet connection, every wallets contents (if its not a privacy coin), every transaction, everry smart contract
now compare this to fiat currency. the federal reserve has NEVER been audited. its basically them saying, we have x amount and can print as much as we like

In general I have a feeling like OP is talking from his position where he's in already established market with tons of practices, patterns and so on, and tries to imply them to cryptoland where chaos is much more expressed than on other markets

>>6944871
Quite curious what are you doing here if you think crypto has no value. You are participating in this discussion to open our eyes?

>>6944632
sheesh I remember that - I spend way too much time on this fucking board desu senpaitachi tekodasai

More importantly ... oil. I have a lot in Noble NE. Is that ever gonna break out or what?

>>6944871
>Wrong. The bag holder crew, which includes most of the fools on here reading this, jumped in AFTER the price was pumped. It rose due to activity primarily in Asian countries. Joe Blow and the millenial derpers who cannot distinguish between PRICE and VALUE were fooled into buying crypto - all of which is a massive ponzi scam.
>The intent of crypto was specifically to suck fiat out of the economy as a way to prop up the dollar. Because all crypto has ZERO value and can never have more than ZERO value, whatever fiat you put in will become your loss. You cannot cash out any significant amount, and no exchange is obligated to honor any crypto:fiat price so they can just shut down and walk away with the money you gave them and you won't be able to do anything about it.
aaah fuck gotta sell my crypto now. this ANON just opened my eyes, crypto has zero value!! for all the 9 years crypto has existed i can't believe everyone hasn't realized this!!

>>6944750

I'm so glad you posted this photo, it's EXACTLY what I was talking about in my previous rants in this thread about what a market that's about to go from sleepy sideways to a pump looks like. I see the exact same pattern every day now it seems and I've been too busy typing to find a pic.

On another note, there are sophisticated investors in the space, I'm not denying that. The typical person I know who tells me to buy Bitcoin though is early 20's and is a type of friend from College who wants to move to Colorado and go to festivals and grow pot though and I think that is a prevalence across much of the US.

Bitcoin could be 100k one day. I do not think it will ever disappear.

>>6944804

Yeah, I think the breakout is about to occur. Lots of small resistance points in the short term... potential bear trap today or start of short term dip. Dunno yet.

>>6944834

Well, the only thing I can say is, good luck. I have always wanted to take an amphetamine and trade for 24hours straight, but I would for sure lose a lot of money.

>>6944851

May as well hold T-bonds if you're not cyclically holding metals to hedge against inflation in the long term. That's just my .02 I don't think you're doing anything necessarily wrong by holding 10% in general.

>>6942894
Op what is your take on the new yorker article from 30 yrs ago w the phoenix and the coin.

>>6944871
>The intent of crypto was specifically to suck fiat out of the economy as a way to prop up the dollar. Because all crypto has ZERO value and can never have more than ZERO value, whatever fiat you put in will become your loss. You cannot cash out any significant amount, and no exchange is obligated to honor any crypto:fiat price so they can just shut down and walk away with the money you gave them and you won't be able to do anything about it.

Ok now you just revealed that you have a <100 IQ, unless this is some weird hobby where you think it's fun to say retarded shit. Crypto does not suck any fiat out of the economy. Exchanges are just intermediaries that connect a buyer and a seller. No fiat leaves the economy.

>>6945020
i also used the term eye opening at the same time as your post

HIVEMIND


>>6944871
>The intent of crypto was specifically to suck fiat out of the economy as a way to prop up the dollar.
i didn't even read this part kek. maybe read the whitepaper before you post
https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

>>6945057
>crypto has zero value
in spite of your sarcasm, OP has a point
it currently is on course to have the same amount of worth as fiat currency since its easily manipulated by a few
i would love a coin to exist that cant be price manipulated

>>6944378
satoshi is dead you idiot

More importantly ... oil. I have a lot in Noble NE. Is that ever gonna break out or what?

Sorry meant to post to OP

>>6944378
Satoshi's original addresses are literally gone and nobody knows the private address. There is no way for those to be sold you moron.

>>6943655
>Netflix would require a user base of 1billion just to have that ratio at around 25-35.

Can you tell us when to buy way out of the money puts on Netflix?

>>6945075
>I'm so glad you posted this photo, it's EXACTLY what I was talking about in my previous rants in this thread about what a market that's about to go from sleepy sideways to a pump looks like. I see the exact same pattern every day now it seems and I've been too busy typing to find a pic.
>On another note, there are sophisticated investors in the space, I'm not denying that. The typical person I know who tells me to buy Bitcoin though is early 20's and is a type of friend from College who wants to move to Colorado and go to festivals and grow pot though and I think that is a prevalence across much of the US.
>Bitcoin could be 100k one day. I do not think it will ever disappear.
fair analysis, i am in agreement with you here anon. i do think it's impossible to know the typical buyer, but yes i agree the amount of FOMO from $10k --> $20k was a lot of plumbers, dentists, and bus drivers. if it hits 3 digits this year tho i would be hella surprised.

Got paid in 200. in BCH from a gig. Through watching youtube I flipped that into 3k within two weeks. Went horizontal for a few weeks until I decided on getting a social game going. happened upon @welambonow on twitter and turned my 3k into 20k within 3 weeks. You guys DYOR on him and find out the truth for yourself. Learned so much from him and the community he created on his discord.Get in or get a day job!

>>6945132
>i would love a coin to exist that cant be price manipulated
this about what you just said, literally everything can be manipulated. housing market, precious metals, or commodities. everything on this planet is a speculation. golds value is still 80% speculation. no one truly knows how much gold is under fort knox, the supply can be manipulated by government at anytime. crypto is based off of supply and demand like anything else, even if there are tethers propping up the market, there are still individuals at this current moment who are willing to pay $10,000 for 1btc. it's still a far superior alternative to fiat currency. i trust mathematics, computer science, and cryptogaphy as a form of money 1000x more than i trust janet yellen changing the discount round and federal funds rate whenever the fuck she wants.

>>6942894
More importantly ... oil. I have a lot in Noble NE. Is that ever gonna break out or what

>>6945075

Well what are your thoughts on the United States meeting on cryptocurrencies in February?

Any light you can shed on this?

>>6945093

Can you post a link?

>>6945106

Actually it does take money out of circulating economy, saving money in a bank does this as well, temporarily.

>>6945020

I am talking about this because it helps to settle my own thought process on something that I have been working on. Ever have an idea that something should make sense, but you just need a final piece and it will be suddenly clear? It's like that.

>>6945145

I know nothing about them, oil companies may not do as well as price, Oil companies will do better in US because of competitive currency rates making their exports cheaper.

If you want a real weird idea there's this company called Genie Energy, its based out of New Jersey. I'm NOT telling you to buy it because its sort of like a sleeping Giant.

It owns the rights to extract all of the oil reserves in the Golan heights (Isreal border with Syria) that they found a few years ago. They aren't allowed to extract any yet because it's technically not a part of Isreal, but occupied Syrian territory, but the amount of oil there is massive. It's easily enough to fuel all of Israel in the event of a war.

To give you an idea the company has a revenue of 200million at the moment and if they were pumping from this field full force it would be 14billion.

The craziest thing is that Dick Cheney and a few of the rothschilds and Rupert Murdoch are on the advisory board. It sounds like a larping /pol/ conspiracy, but you can google all of this.

I bet there's tons of situations like this for the top of the top. Something like how George Bush, Clintons, and others bought tens of thousands of acres in Brazil under the largest underground freshwater aquifer over a decade ago. I wonder if that's what the recent-ish James bond movie was based on.

I want to find all of these hidden companies and make an ETF out of it for myself one day.

>>6945302
I don't know who's the guy who made this TA but it's impressively accurate, on the other one you can find the price prediction until 2024 and EOY 2017 was about 11K 10K and he was right.

>>6942894
>BTC will drop to triple digits

Nice LARP, I despise BTC but there's no fucking way that's happening.

>>6945467
>Actually it does take money out of circulating economy
For every buyer there is a seller who gets the money, and on top of that miners create new coins that they sell for cash, then pay their bills. It just transfers money between people.

>>6945302
i fully agree
i just see that majority of coins can be manipulated and i would love for a coin that has actual utility and cannot be manipulated

>>6945467
>I am talking about this because it helps to settle my own thought process on something that I have been working on. Ever have an idea that something should make sense, but you just need a final piece and it will be suddenly clear? It's like that.

Well, than it makes sense. I even had an idea to open my own consulting company where I will just let people explain their problem and discuss in a right way which will lead them to find solutions by themselves. Sometimes you just need someone to listen your thoughts and you will come up with exactly what you need.

In general, about crypto I do not think it will go down in a such dramatic way as you told with 18k-1k. Reason is we had huge correction already and lots of people expect the growth, I'm talking now only about mood of the crowd. Besides crowd expectations, remember how much of ICO's and new projects we had previous year. So much hype about roadmaps and so on, much money was invested in these new startups, but then we saw Christmas sell-off + New Year + Asian New Year + Tax declarations, just as always December and January are very retarded months when it's very hard to make any reasonable predictions because everything goes wild. But now, February will go very quickly since it's a short month, and then people will start to put more attention to previous years promising projects since Q2 is getting closer and people want to see how all these project are doing. There will be both huge disappointments and some very big surprises.

>>6944947
Because Tether isn't backed by anything?

How does tether affect other cryptos?

Genie energy is interesting. Sounds political and risky. Plus isn't adding the crapload of oil from the golan heights just going to tank oil prices even more?

>>6943901
> trading sideways

bizlet here, what does this mean?

>>6945759
price barely going up or down

>>6945759
Down bad. Up good. Sideways enh. Maybe it's consolidating before going up again (good).

>>6945636
no one really understands the market dynamics yet, and since crypto is so irrational no one know the true value of anything. BTC was pumped and dumped all the time back in 2013.

i do understand what you're trying to say. but since none of the smart contract / currency / storage / gaming platform / prediction markets / blockchain tokens whatever are being used for 95% speculation it's likely that will never happen.

If BTC is going to die for a while and USD is failing where do we put our money?

>>6945495
yep, if you include the BCH fork he was actually 2 days off

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0

the calculation is in bitcointalk thread if you want to find out where price would be at present moment

>>6945467
why are you still trading oil when you could make hella gains in crypto?

>>6945921
OP is probably gonna shill you gold, but that is a meme. just HODL crypto and real estate

>>6945921
me

>>6945736
Ok. If you have been in crypto for at 2 months, you should know once btc tanks everything tanks.

>>6945921
Gold, silver, mining stocks, oil, commodities, etc.

>>6942894
Midly amusing, but BTC can't drop below $8k for inherent reasons.

>>6945467
so what happens people short btc
btc gets rekt
eth takes it place
or does crypto go kaput?

>>6942894
>It's estimated that only 6-10% of all "fiat" money in bitcoin at the moment is tether aka artificial

lmao, holy shit this is the stupidest thing I've read all day on this board. You sound like a boomer typing retarded shit like that, it literally doesn't make any sense.

>>6945967
>Ok. If you have been in crypto for at 2 months, you should know once btc tanks everything tanks.
I get that the market follows the king, but I've been curious about tether, and I don't quite understand how it will affect the market in the future...

>>6946048
ppl have been shorting BTC since the futures launch. the crypto market normally moves together, however there are always a few exceptions that are in the green when every other crypto is down -25%. there is no real inverse correlation between between btc and other currencies.

>>6945960

Well I trade oil for my company.

I don't trade crypto because, from what I've heard, when things get volatile exchanges shut off, so I wouldn't be able to sell tops and bottoms.

Secondly, I wouldn't be able to really trade like I'm used to because coins left on exchange can and are frequently stolen.

>>6945921

It doesn't really matter if USD is falling and you're an American investing in the US.

Before I go, I'd like to mention something I've noticed recently.

In long term trends, profit taking, or down days will happen quickly and then end. People take profit and then buy back. Usually its an engulfing bearish daily candle or something that makes people think its a reversal.

In sideways markets I often observed this as a sign of reversal, but not recently as few markets are sideways anymore.

Look at August 10, or March 3rd of the S&P last year, or maybe the last closed Gold candle.

I'm embarrassed to even be talking about Gold because in general I think the gold people are retarded. It's good to learn about nuances in every bit of economies though I guess.

>>6945787
I haz a question
Are there a lot of examples of a sideways trend that preceded a sharp down trend?

Is sideways trend more likely to go up or down next more often than not basically?
Or is it anyone's guess?

>>6945020
My learned friend, all markets are chaotic. Those who think they see patterns are invariably always proved wrong.

>>6943859
ILL FIGURATIVELY BUY AS MUCH AS I CAN!!!

FUCK THIS GENERATION.

>>6942894
Price is supported by billionaire miners no way it crashes under 8k

>>6946216
Don't be embarrassed to talk about gold. I'm retarded and I like gold and silver. There are alot of us on this board who also hold gold and silver and the mining stocks. Whenever you have interested info on gold and silver, please share it!!!

>>6944113
...on reddit

>>6946262

As a rule, the longer something trades sideways, the more likely it is to go down as people will remove their money from a non gaining asset.

It depends on how long the sideways is in relation to how long the trend is. Some stocks trade sideways for years, crypto is chaotic as others have said, so the timeframe to look at is shorter.

Go read a Technical Analysis book, many of the questions you will have are low hanging fruit. Maybe try to look and see if you can find an "ascending right triangle" forming on Bitcoin 4h bars with a top flat resistance at 12600 and figure out if ascending right triangles tend to break upwards, or down.

I'm a millionaire from crypto, you know how I did it? I didn't listen to any faggots here that think they understand the market.

If you are looking at bitcoin or any of these coins from a logical stock market perspective then you are going to lose a lot of fucking money

>>6946216
>because coins left on exchange can and are frequently stolen.
lol no, do you know how much volume is on bitmex, binance, bittrex, or bitfinex? do you know how many HODLers have +$1 mil on exchanges. if coins were stolen frequently on exchanges then no one would trade lmao.

>from what I've heard, when things get volatile exchanges shut off
no, not at all lmao. probably a 99% uptime.
here are some resources if you want to get started anon --> https://lopp.net/bitcoin.html this is mostly for btc.

here is link to top alt coin exchange, currently 6 million users. bittrex had 500k concurrent users at one point in december so they had to stop registration because they we're growing so fast. also binance added 240k users in 24 hours when they re-opened for registratoins
https://www.binance.com

>>6946490
this x10000

>>6946490
Its better to listen to people who make a bit of money consistently (investors) than one retard who got lucky once (You)

>>6946262

I'm pretty tired, but I drew this up quickly. Not super fancy.

>>6946555
I have a twitter with 37k followers, I found out how the market actually works and made a killing

>>6946591
Daw, you didn't have to do all that for me.

Got any reading material to throw at me?

>>6946490
enlighten us wise guy
10 bullet points
Book?

>>6946490
>>6946539
>>6946555

I think these guys probably have a point. Established markets are generally different.

However, it's easy to think of yourself as a great investor when the asset your trading was literally parabolic in the upwards direction. I do think people act the same to these sort of stimuli repetitively though. They react the same way to gains and losses and thats why people look at patterns, obviously.

>>6943150
Credit rating agencies are not USA puppets ?

>>6946615
Romano? jeebus911? cryptomessiah? notsofast? york780? startaleTV ? alanizBTC? anondran? i have a feeling it's romano

>>6946739
I created a huge kucoin pyramid

my twitter is kucoin_invest

>>6946643
>great investor when the asset your trading was literally parabolic in the upwards direction
not saying i am a great investor, i actually tell people all the time that i was lucky af. but there are a lot of genius traders in crypto

>>6946771
kekek nice

>>6942894
OP is a cuck BTC 50K by Summer.

>>6944871
>People pay dollars for crypto
>Crypto has zero value
Wow that was insightful.

Love this thread, we need more discussion like this on /biz

>>6946643
So, when BTC drops to $1k, what happens to the rest of the market? Alts will surely follow and normies will start panic selling. Everyone would lose hope and never invest again, so I don't see why it would rise again to $100k at some point?

>>6946216
>Predicts the future of bitcoin with an air of certainty
>Doesn't trade Bitcoin because he's afraid of exchanges
Fuck you OP, stop making this shit up. You have no idea of what you're talking about. I'm screen capping your 18k prediction and I'll shove the screenshots up your ass when the future proves you wrong.

>>6944005
if i'm right, bitfinexd and edwin here are both kwukduck from bct


if it looks like fud, and smells like a duck, it's definitely kwukduck.

>>6947016
Maybe it's because the average normie has short memory and can't resist an opportunity to get 'instantly' rich. You know how they say "time heals all the wounds"? Give it a few years and even those who lost quite a few savings, if correctly handled by media (and social media), will start looking into it again, but more carefully perhaps.

I don't know tho, I'm nowhere as knowledgeable as OP.

>>6944113
You are beautiful, no matter what they say.

>>6946328
"as much as I can" is often used figuratively, retard

>>6947128
they won't have a choice because their fiat currencies will be completely worthless in a matter of years

>>6947016
Look at 2017
In that year Bitcoin was at its highest in late Feb at 86% (previous years Bitcoin dominance was higher but this is just 2017)
It then dropped to 37% with Eth at 31% in mid June. Do you understand this. There was a time when BTC and ETH were almost the same in dominance. Then bitcoin again rose to 56% before dropping to where it is now 34%. So no, alts do not surely follow. They can just as easily soar. Look at Ripple, it is at 10% of the total cryptocurrency market.

>>6942894
>says BTC will hit 18, then 1k
>Doesn't trade btc, prefers to trade oil
If you're so sure that btc will hit 18k, why.arent you accumulating? You can also short btc once it hits 18k. That's easy money right there. The answer is, OP is bullshiting us, obviously.

So what happens after BTC hits triple digits? What then?
How will alts react?

>>6945467
Putting money into a bank does NOT take it out of supply. They use your money to invest. You should know this..

>>6942894

Why are there so many pics of the icebergs tonight?

>>6947756
by then, bitcoin cash and eth will be 10k+, stellar will be pushing $100 and $1k NEO. bitcoin core will be dead

fucking LARP ass nigger pajeet. triple digits my ass. Especially with the continuing influx of new people and money.

>>6942894
> bump