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Crypto modeling Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:48:56 2018 No.6507227 [Reply] [Original]

Has anyone given serious crypto modeling a shot? Maybe something like a random walk with varying drift based on sentiment analysis?

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:49:46 2018 No.6507256 >random walk >sentiment analysis OP, are you fucking retard?

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:50:35 2018 No.6507297 EMH Crypto version?

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:51:21 2018 No.6507330 >>6507256 You are clearly not familiar with any of the words he listed. The cryptomarkets are literally almost only sentiment driven, I don't think we can apply the random walk, since that would imply semi-strong efficiency.

Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:54:09 2018 No.6507478

>>6507256
fucking kek

Get real OP, trying to study crypto with that knowledge you picked up in academia is like trying to apply some advanced ML model to the random betting of drunkards on the outcome of games of darts or some shit.

Prices in this market are purely a function of the number of stupid people who have been shilled a coin and are willing to throw their fiat at it.

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:56:20 2018 No.6507581 >>6507478 Shiller's fads model >literally means market is driven by sentiment and not rational behavior. This shit is text book behavioral finance

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 20:58:25 2018 No.6507680 There's better ways to model crypto but they're not really price driven

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:00:00 2018 No.6507760 >>6507227 Yes, it is working as intended. If certain parameters shoot up in the next day or so, we will see a btc run. It has been right over 80% in terms of pointing to a run within a 7 day period. Last time it pointed at Nov 11.

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:00:23 2018 No.6507775 >>6507227 easier to just buy cheap stuff while the total crypto market cap is trending up

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:00:34 2018 No.6507786 File: 39 KB, 730x438, robert-shiller-730x438.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>6507581 >Shiller's fads model this guy? https://www.leaprate.com/cryptocurrency/bitcoin/yales-robert-shiller-calls-bitcoin-gold-fads/

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:01:11 2018 No.6507812 >>6507680 This.

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:02:38 2018 No.6507860 >>6507297 >>6507330 >>6507680 good points. OLS with sentiment index, got it

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:04:21 2018 No.6507925 >>6507786 Exactly.

>>	Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:10:59 2018 No.6508183 I’ve got an evaluation model I have been running simulations through and they’ve been fairly accurate at picking up moon coins. Give me a coin and I’ll run it through anon — will output “BUY” or “AVOID”.

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:12:09 2018 No.6508230 >>6508183 Haha I want to try this shit iExec pls

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:12:51 2018 No.6508263 >>6508183 When btc is sleeping you can choose almost at random and make gains.

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:13:43 2018 No.6508294 >>6508183 LINK

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:14:53 2018 No.6508339 >>6508183 CAN

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:16:08 2018 No.6508381 >>6508183 QRL

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:17:13 2018 No.6508426 >>6508339 repeat after me: the floor is at 0

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:22:06 2018 No.6508612 >>6508230 >>6508294 >>6508339 >>6508381 not that guy, I'm his AI posting for him.... my calculations say AVOID ALL

>>	Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:26:47 2018 No.6508827 >>6508230 AVOID >>6508294 AVOID >>6508339 BUY >>6508381 AVOID — closest to being “BUY” other than CAN was QRL.

Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:28:57 2018 No.6508918

>>6508827

The full list of simulations I ran today:

ICX 0.08 BUY
VEN 0.10 BUY
XRB 0.30 AVOID
DRGN 0.03 BUY
OPT 0.10 BUY
COLX 0.38 AVOID
LRC 0.08 BUY
LTC 0.48 AVOID
NEO 0.20 BUY
ZCL 0.40 AVOID
BTDX 0.33 AVOID
TRX 0.38 AVOID
ETC 0.40 AVOID
DGB 0.55 AVOID
NEBL 0.25 BUY
SNOV 0.25 BUY
HPB 0.15 BUY
NCT 0.13 BUY
KMD 0.25 BUY
BAT 0.23 BUY
NXT 0.43 AVOID
COB 0.23 BUY
POE 0.25 BUY
ELF 0.30 AVOID
RLC 0.38 AVOID
LINK 0.38 AVOID
CAN 0.13 BUY
QRL 0.35 AVOID

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:29:32 2018 No.6508944 >>6508183 POE

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:29:34 2018 No.6508945 >>6508827 Lmao look at this guys can bags

>>	Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:30:00 2018 No.6508963 >>6508918 #’s in the middle indicate risk level — closer to 0 the lower risk it is! Merry Christmas ya filthy animals.

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:31:09 2018 No.6509002 >>6508918 What does the number represent? Probability of expected returns based on historical data?

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:31:34 2018 No.6509015 File: 110 KB, 547x717, w1.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>6508918 >>6508827 >tfw CAN might actually have a floor

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:32:03 2018 No.6509037 File: 723 KB, 739x446, 1515624517780.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>6508827

>>	Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:32:26 2018 No.6509052 >>6509002 >>6508963

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:33:46 2018 No.6509101 >>6508918 >avoiding link Your model is broken. I-it has to be. Reeeee

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:36:24 2018 No.6509192 >>6508183 >>6508918 any tips on coding a trading bot anon?

>>	Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:38:32 2018 No.6509263 >>6509192 Crypto market doesn’t follow standard principles. Work on building a risk matrix for evaluating a rule set — asking questions of each crypto and grading on a scale

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:46:04 2018 No.6509538 >>6509263 >tfw don't understand any of that where do I start if im a brainlet that wants to not stay poor

Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:50:03 2018 No.6509692

>>6507227
uhh sentimental analysis, yes. most algo traders use it. Google trends, tweepy, reddit scraping, etc.

random walks? no. how would that help? (yes i know youre talking about the stochastic process)

I use a neural network classifier myself.
>t. ML engineer

Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 21:50:15 2018 No.6509706

>>6509538
Make a list of coins and start ranking them subjectively first.

Then find data to rank them further with less subjectiveness (example: $10M market caps).

Then build a preference set — $10M market cap, 50M circulating coins, within top X hundred... etc...

Soon you start building this out, in excel, and you have a table that progresses from subjective / opinionated sorting/ranking to scientific analysis/sorting based upon criteria that you developed.

Then once you have criteria build out in excel / google sheets, use python and a coin api to pull in data and filter through your criteria via simple code and you can now run through the full 1400 coins.

Does that help?

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:50:35 2018 No.6509722 >>6509538 www google com

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:51:58 2018 No.6509765 >>6509706 thank you anon, I guess I need to buy a python book first

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:55:00 2018 No.6509894 File: 105 KB, 1039x559, 1497730438220.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google] >>6507227 lol no.. i'm not an attention whore or have tits, so noone will give me crypto for modelling

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 21:59:48 2018 No.6510061 No XLM?

>>	Litecoin Millionaire Mon Jan 15 22:06:29 2018 No.6510331 >>6510061 XLM is a BUY

>>	Anonymous Mon Jan 15 22:12:42 2018 No.6510593 >>6509692 cool approach, what are your inputs?

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