/biz/ - Business & Finance

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>>58491008
Hmm. Interesting.

But I'd imagine Trudeau will cave. Libs are very pro-passenger rail, one of the few policy positions that happens to be on the left that I actually like. Cutting VIA or GO service would probably hurt his base pretty significantly.

Bookmarking this thread though. Very interesting.

>>58491008
What's to stop Castro Jr from breaking the strike, or freezing the Teamsters' individual bank accounts? That "hurr durr, I'm just a vapid drama teacher" mask falls off quick when the money of Trudeau's owners is at stake.

>>58491008
There's also a possibility Trudeau is ousted and replaced by Carney.

“During a strike or lockout not prohibited by this Part, the employer, the trade union and the employees in the bargaining unit must continue the supply of services, operation of facilities or production of goods to the extent necessary to prevent an immediate and serious danger to the safety or health of the public.”

This clearly means that economic considerations are not included, which means all raw resources stop the moment the strike starts. Rail traffic will plummet.

>>58491302
Dumb /pol/ response, do some research before asking if Trudeau can "break the strike" like its 1872 or freeze accounts. Not happening.

>>58492894
>laughs in Canadian trucker

>>58491226
Libs are pretty anti-freight rail though, because they (sometimes correctly) believe that it takes up space for passenger rail lines. And the light rail lines that toronto etc use aren't run by the same companies as the freight lines, unless Canadanian business is even more incestuous than I had been led to believe.

>>58491008
I am new to options, why is your target at 63?

>>58491008
Didn't Livermore take this position on nothing but a gut feeling? It was pure luck, he also ended up killing himself after losing everything

>>58495051
> gut feeling
> pure luck
> does not know about the number of times he lost everything, still thinks he killed himself BECAUSE he lost everything once

NGMI

>>58491008
Canada is heckin gay and deserves everything it gets
Just like my own country

>>58491008
This thread will age like wine. Anyone ignoring this hates money. Definitely going to start loading up on puts.

>https://teamsters.ca/blog/2024/05/01/teamsters-vote-to-authorize-strikes-at-cn-and-cpkc/

> Teamsters president Paul Boucher:
>“A simultaneous work stoppage at both CN and CPKC would disrupt supply chains on a scale Canada has likely never experienced. I would like to make it very clear that provoking a crisis on that scale has not been, and never will be, our goal."

Article also says they're no close to reaching a deal today than when they began and that striking has already been approved by an overwhelming majority of votes, possibly starting as early as late this month.

What a lot of people don't realize is that CP and CN actually want a strike before September. The fall is grain export season in Canada. Tens of millions of tons of grain will go from central Canada to the East and West for export. Now, in the summer, management has more leverage because this is their slow season so they can hold out better against the Teamsters.

The risk: A deal is reached before then and the stock rallies sharply. If you position correctly on long dated puts you will suffer a decent but not devastating loss.

The reward: A strike occurs and the stocks utterly tank, look at Ford Motors for an idea. These are typically low volatility stocks, sharp downward moves will pay off massively with puts.

Size accordingly, don't be greedy and don't buy short dated.

>>58491008
you should post this on bant, it’s the new biz board

>>58495172
Based

>>58491226
Via is a different union, it's just cpkc and cn freigh, along with cpkc traffic controllers.

>>58492894
>or freeze accounts. Not happening.
But isn't there precedent? Didn't Canada do literally that last year to farmers or something? I live quite literally on the other side of the planet and even I am aware of this. Perhaps you shouldn't throw stones from your glass house, mister dyor.

>>58499985
They froze the accounts of anyone associated with the trucker protests. The Supreme Court of Canada ruled this unlawful and the current administration is appealing.

>>58491008
If the strike happens, the companies will cave. In 2019 the CN conductors went on strike, even with all engineers and management conductors working, the company caved hard after 8 days.

If both engineers and conductors in both companies cave, they will be begging the force work to come back.

Your puts won't print. Due to the monopolistic nature of the railways, all the traffic that is moved by rail will still exist after any strike, there is no loss of profit, just delay of trains.

>>58497484
If the strike happens the company is fucked, even if it's the slowest part of the year, they are fucked. The company doesn't have anywhere near enough managers with engineer tickets to make it work. Couple that with the fact the new railwaybrest rules prevent managers from working 18s like they did last time is a recipe for disaster for the company.

Cn has already caved and offered a new, better deal. It's not good, the union won't take it, yet. But it's evidence the company played chicken with the union and they are flinching.

>>58491008
Unless you already have 10 million dollars plus, you should not be diluting your edge talking about opportunities like this you identify.