/biz/ - Business & Finance

soft landing: sp500 and bitcoin pumps
hard landing: sp500 and bitcoin crashes
bonus: hard landing and bitcoin pumps along with gold suprising everyone

hard to place bets here desu. unemployment is creeping up which points to recession, experts claim no hard landing... so im leaning to hard landing, but then again they can manufacture a soft landing, which would mean more inflation later on, which would mean a harder recession eventually

hard to fucking predict anything fuck

>>58451817
Sahm Rule: unemployment rate is momentum driven. April report forecasts further unemployment uptick. Big tech layoffs and outsourcing showed up just in time.
The fed has forecasted 3 cuts previously and has to play the game until they have to choose. They'll save the global market rather than the domestic market. Bonds are more important than you being able to afford Chipotle once a week.

>>58451807
>Bitcoin is up 400% since last year, Alts are up 1000%
>He still thinks the top is 1 year from now.

Lmao. Retard. Bitcoin is going to peak in 1-2 months, then 3 more years of bear market.

>>58451840
>baby's 2nd cycle.
Can't wait to laugh at all you "cycle is over" crowd EOY. You have no idea what is coming.

>>58451840
newfag, the top is always like an year and a half after the halving
>this time is different because... uhh...

>>58451862
it was different with the ath hitting pre halving... each cycle has diminishing returns so I wouldn't be surprised to see btc top at 90k or so this year

one other thing I'll add this time around is you won't have nearly the amount of retail participation given the higher rate / higher cost of living environment / the government isn't giving out stimmy's and refundable credits to small biz owners.

In before
>institutions

yeah they don't care if gains are only 3x versus 30x as the risk is way lower once btc is "tamed" as they like to say

>>58451862
>It's not actually different

When was did bitcoin ever break ATH right before an halving?

Hope you enjoy holding my bags while I'm dumping on you at the top in June.

>>58451932
>>58451939
>banking on a recession during an election year lol

>>58451858
>He thinks every cycle is bound to be the same.

See >>58451939

You're about to become a bagholder while the smart investors will be buying back at the bottom during the summer.

>>58451945
>Bitcoin dumping = recession

>>58451949
>>58451960
>refuses to elaborate
just repeats the same tired ur a bagholder retard HURRR DURRRR!
This website is so shit lol.

>>58451945
the word recession has lost its meaning in clown world but my simple observation is that people have less disposable income

I think we see ath at around 90k btc later summer or around the election and then crash early '25.

Of course I could be wrong, what's your prediction?

>>58452002
There is 0% chance we top out at only 90k lol.

>>58452002
Main street and SMBs have been in recession since 2022. Jobs market is held together by massive immigration propping up the labor market, supply increased to prevent inflation spiral.
S&P held together by big tech "AI being a paradigm shift" that hasn't even topped yet if we compare to 1998-1999 mania.
Bitcoin probably reaches ~90-100k Q4 this year or Q1 next year, then dumps in my opinion. This is the assumption that the 4 year cycle roughly works as some others pointed out that the ATH was reached prior to the halving. I think it's more just liquidity increasing from ETFs than anything breaking the base assumptions of the market structure. Every cycle is different.
The key thing to remember is that the Federal Reserve is a political institution that hates Trump.

Just remember selling early is never as bad as selling too late. Define your risk-reward. When BTC was 18k, probabilistically, the risk of waiting for 15k outweighed the upside.

>>58451939
>>58451920
>When was did bitcoin ever break ATH right before an halving?
btc's code doesn't give a shit about price and doesn't know its ath
the halving on the other hand is literally programmed
its effect come into play several months after

>>58452002
>people have less disposable income

sidelined liquidity is at all time hights
the question is, will there be a recession or not? because if there is a recession, then BTC may crash with the sp500, unless it decouples and acts both as an inflation hedge and also as a recession hedge and not just as an inflation hedge