/biz/ - Business & Finance

It will, probably. But as you can see it appears to be left shifted given how these cycles in years prior all appeared 1-2 years after the halvening - everyone is anticipating it and thus is trying to get in early.

>>58296674
it will happen
but with the most hardcore shakeouts and propaganda we can imagine
they will not let you become rich "that" easy, they want to even shake out people that are crypto since 2014-2017

>>58296749
I predict people are going to cash out early. Think they timed the top good. Then watch crypto markets go multiples higher. A lot of new people round tripped last cycle. They won't do it again. They will learn a new pain, of selling early.

>>58296764
How early are we talking? If it still means being multiples richer I don't mind

>>58296774
You will mind if you see it doing a 10x after you sold for a 2x
Its a market psychology tale as old as time

>>58296674
Btc is still a real free market there onchain confirmations means any fuckery with fake paper btc can only be done short term
At the same time there is a growing supply shortage as on exchange corns are in a permanent down trend
Hedgies are shorting everything on cme futures right now
Their liquidation will be the start of the real bullrun

>>58296674
The pumps are over, you can expect 10% annual growth

>>58296674
These charts you posted are cut short to hide the massive diminishing returns. If we still have diminishing returns we are looking at a 90k~100k top this cycle, so not much upside anymore.

>>58296674
buying btc, even at the absolute bottom of the cycle, is no longer a foolproof way of making it because it will only 5x, thats the difference. so people will move to alts instead.

so no, the cycle wont repeat indefinitely, the market is maturing and altcoins will become more important for each cycle while bitcoin will slow.

for the long term impact of cryptocurrency this is a good thing

>>58296899
Now factor in inflation

>>58296674
there is no cycle
the US dollar is dead

you're missing the forest for the trees

>>58296674
This chart was used for exit liquidity used on gongos. If you haven't noticed that the ath is already in.

>>58296674
You wont make it with BTC

>>58296674
Yes we did. The halving has been the main narrative from the start. It is unironically as simple as wagmi
>>58296899
Ceteris paribus is the achilles heel to the diminishing returns question. Returns don't diminish as a law. Easily seen in many other assets.

the trend is your friend until the end
retard

>>58297381
You know we already went to the upside of that graph pre halving right

>>58296674
Cos it scks, its altseason.
AGRS is a great option or take AI if you want but that cicle ll not repeat.

>>58297450

>>58297442
That is not true.

>>58297456
>Cant do very basic math
Graph shows 5x or 6x decline in bottom to top gains per cycle
So on the higher bound that would be a 4x total for this cycle
Btc bottom was 15.5k we are still above 60k right now its halfway in the cycle

>>58296674
what is the point of stretching and squishing the graph like this?

Do people just sit there fiddling with graphs until it looks like how they want?

>>58296764
This.
I held all the way from the top to bottom last time, never again.
My BTC is sent to the exchange with my finger over the sell button as soon as 100k is breached then debating when to pull the trigger.
I will sell and it will continue to climb.
Many such cases like mine.

>>58296674
these artificial cycles will continue until the rugpull
NSA coin is designed to be a trap
Get rich while you can but do not trust it, use it
Those who trust it will get fucked at some point according to plan

>>58296674
>Can it be so simple?
Yea it's literally that simple. Bitcoin is an s-curve technology so it needs to extreme bull and bear markets to eventually get to equilibrium of $1,000,000 or something.

>>58297662
This and also dedollarization in a lot of countries is all but inevitable from 2025-2035

The whole "hurrr this is the last cycle" people are retarded and second guessing themselves too much

>>58296774
Ask yourself this anon, will the money printer stop?

>>58296674
We all bought into "hodl" last time, which was a psyop from reddit, which was confirmed to have been created by Ghislane Maxwell (Mossad/cia)

Now we're buying "dude halveneing lmao"

>>58297686
Far from the last, but artificial and easily manipulated by the few big bag holders, just be careful and don't forget to transfer wealth gained to safety

>>58297322
Oh nice, 10% on top?
If i bought in november 2021 i would still be in the red because we are lower in nominal terms but also even more lower inflation adjusted. Bitcoin is loosing its "just hold for 4 years" narrative if tjis cycle top is lower than 100k.

>"this time is different".
It's always the same

>>58297547
>>58297662
You guys should have a plan for if btc never crosses 100k. You dont want to be eternal bagholders. So many people are saying 100k is a given that i think it will not happen or just barelly happen, trapping a lot if people for years.

>>58296674
It won’t 10x but it’ll burst through the ceiling for sure. 250k easily.

>>58296674
it will not repeat because when all people expect something to happen, the market can not fulfill such expectations

>>58297878
My plan is to sell when capo becomes bullish.

>>58297547
Set a limit order sell for half your stack at 100k then a stop loss sell for your remaining stack at your buy in price. Have fun with your hobbies and don’t worry about selling or losing money staring at the Bitcoin chart all day lol

>>58296674
Bitcoin enthusiasts have been talking about exponential growth and predicting the effects of halving cycles since at least 2011. I was there on the bitcointalk forums. There will still be cycles but they're getting progressively shallower because the halving has less effect. This cycle and 2028 will be shallow and by 2032 it'll be near imperceptible when zoomed out.

>>58297995
Expert strat

>>58298054
The price is up more than 2x since last halving quite a bit more even, so the impact in dollar terms is larger

>>58297381
I don't understand why nobody talks about the black swan dump of March 2020 when the global travel ban happened. it's there staring at us in every chart, and the effect it then had dragging down the cycle top.

if we filter out the noise of the black swan we can see the next 18 months will change the world as the market makes up for lost time. we'll see BTC above $250 before the top this time.

The cycle can repeat indefinitely, the only difference is returns diminish which cause people to leverage higher for the same return, which in turn means minor market movements within the larger cycle can liquidate more people easily. Banks will put hundreds of millions of dollars into specific price targets for options, estimating this or that company will be at $19 and then get fucking shrekt when it expires at $18.87

>>58297995
And my plan now is to buy the dip. I still have USDT left to get more RWA gems, including NXRA, DUA, and RIO. This plan could prove rewarding in the future anon.

I will sell when the federal reserve closes its doors and the capitol building is sold off with its employees laid off. Anything less is selling at a loss. 10 million dollars is too low an asking price.

4-5% of the supply is in ETF's already. They've been trying to shake us out the whole time, I remember Jamie Simon in 2016 taking credit for a 26% dump after he funded bitcoin, but we found out later that he bought the bottom. Quite simply, I am never selling.

>>58296674
>in 2013 and 2017 no one knew these cycles existed
It was literally written in the white paper you fucking retard. In 2009.

>>58299370
The original NSA paper or the normified one where they changed the name to bitcoin?

>>58299421
The NSA paper wasn't on bitcoin, it was on the SHA-256 hashing algorithm and made no mention of block rewards or hashing difficulty.
I bet you haven't read either of them.

>>58298423
Switch to log chart

>>58299460
>NSA paper only defined the core foundation BTC is built on
oh gee, nothing to worry about here
Btw I think making money with BTC is nice, but I don't trust it for shit and I think those who do eventually will get fucked

global liquidity go up.
bitcoin go up.
election year mean liquidity go up more.
halving too.
bitcoin go up more.

there are space between go+up+more.
one of those spaces is the last week of March and the first week of April.
but bitcoin go up.

when global liquidity stop go up then bitcoin stop go up same way, maybe speculative asset attract risk seeking capital but not sure but more water in the tub means rubber duck go up higher.

>>58299753
Accurate and good post, it is a great speculation vehicle
I honestly don't get the hodlers though, sure it made sense when you got multiple BTC for a dollar or ofc if you missed the top and got stuck with the bag through the drop, but beyond that I don't think it makes sense
Following this kind of logic on the other hand, and secure your profit, that is what I understand

>>58299507
the axis of the chart changes nothing to the absolute dollar value
are you retarded?

>>58299370
No one knew the price would exponentially rocket. I was there. People were pooping their big boy diapers in glee.

>>58296791
>You will mind if you see it doing a 10x after you sold for a 2x

What's wrong with making money?
You talk like a jew.

>>58300451
you were warned, dont come back complaining you bought back in near the top and then got dumped hard
market psychology always remains the same

>>58299557
>>NSA paper only defined the core foundation BTC is built on
>oh gee, nothing to worry about here
you're a legit retard honestly.

>>58300695
Just remember you said that, time will tell and those who did not secure their gains will be the fools
Don't get blinded by greed and forget your exit strategy

>>58298630
That and the fact that the faggot federal reserve decided to fuck the entire economy right in the middle of the bull run. If they hadn't hiked rates btc would easily have reached $300k or more.

>>58296764
>A lot of new people round tripped last cycle.
This is me, from 3 figures to 7 figures back down to 4 figures. Im currently 6 figures this run and I'm already scared about round tripping again.

>>58300921
That is why you gotta secure your profit, I know the hodler think I am stupid but you only profit what you realize, and if you realize you can buy back in at the dips, if you are lucky you can invest back the same amount even with the profits just being free
>muh market psychology
I honestly believe this only applies to some people and also a lot of people that don't have the ice in the stomach needed to actually be involved with such a high risk financial vehicle.

>>58296764
Could happen to some degree.
This time around there is a LOT of bear market PTSD among market participants, almost like everyone is afraid to throw any crazy number as the potential top, only conservative market top targets being thrown around if any. Everyone already planning to sell in the later stage of this year when the top could also very well not come till Q4 2025.

Basically everyone who just bagheld from top to bottom this past cycle will surely sell way too early this bull solely because they are already paranoid/afraid that they will roundtrip their gains all over again.

>>58300852
they merely delayed the inevitable
Bitcoin will eat gold, then real estate, then the S&P, then fiat currency

My headcannon is that the bull cycle is already over and we are due for some painful times ahead