/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57877722
I can tell you the atmosphere shortly after 2008 if you like

There were ideas such as:

Double dip recession
Greek debt implosion
The Eurozone is dead
Longest deepest recession of all time
Peak Oil


All of this marked the beginning of the longest hardest most insane bullrun of all time

And people are currently talking about WW3, "something's gotta give", "this can't keep going up"

Newsflash faggot: a stock market, under normal circumstances continues to make new highs. That is literally the default state of the market. If you are looking at the market as being in a giant bubble, you are making the mistake of not using the log chart.

We're on the edge of solving human productivity via AI and this will have an unimaginable impact on economics. Macro larps are fucking insufferable at the best of times. I'm surrounded by them and they are all 110 IQ midwits who prognosticate for events that literally NEVER fucking happen. I'll never understand it my entire life why people remain constantly pessimistic in the face of continuously good market news but here we are.

Look up "wall of worry".

>>57877722
Yeah nothing makes sense now, but in a much more ominous and threatening way than in 2021.
This clown shit can go on no longer than a few more weeks.

>>57877722
Literally nothing points to crash you fucking moron. Stop doom scrolling and getting your news from losers on X.

>>57878411
The stock market is increasingly detached from reality as it benefits from money being printed out of thin air.
Literally Idiocracy tier state of the economy.

>>57877722
It seemed really bad irl when obongo came out and told us our best days were behind us and we were a nation in decline. Not sure why he did that. He's not even jewish.

Don’t worry anon Big Tech will cradle your gains into infinity!

QE has delayed the 2008 ever since. Government owning corporate bonds is the least efficient and does not reward or punish good/bad business behavior

Until unemployment actually starts creeping up nothing is going to happen. What is interesting though is that unemployment is basically being kept down by the midwest and flyover states. California is at 5.1% now and New York is at 4.6%.

>>57878411
All of what you wrote just means that the bullmarket can be somewhat prolonged, but not really by much.

>>57879171
>unemployment
nigga theres too many people without jobs

>>57878499
>Literally nothing points to crash

>>57879171
The way they count unemployment these days is entirely fraudulent BTW.
It's just lies, lies and more lies.

>>57879250
This. *maybe* 65% of able people are working.

>>57879233
You forgot
>MSPUS down 15% from ATH
>2008 crash saw a 23% drop

>>57879292
65%? Are you retarded anon?

>>57879233
>China bans shorting

>>57877722
I was straight out of highschool in 08 entering college and the workforce. This is nothing like the 08 crash. I had to work multiple jobs just to get 40 hrs a week it shitty service. Even then was rough, no one was hiring, nobody had money and there were no hours. If anything there is a lack of labor now because people checked out. Theres tons of work and money to be made but no one to do it. Infrastructure is failing the real economy not the fake one on paper is detatched from reality. Demand for everything is dropping as birthrates fall. There isnt going to be a crash like 08 but things are going to get pricier and pricier till some sort of monetary switch happens like in 1971. In 2009 13$hr was somewhat liveable and i felt lucky to have it. Now you cant get people to work at TBELL for almost 20. I make 45$ an hr right now and its barely keeping up with inflation.

Numbers on a screen are not the real economy. Expect a soviet tier collapse soon unless we fix our money policy

>>57879233
its clown market, nothing can actually crash if some random segment is pumping, like moving water from 5 different glasses with small holes in it while constantly adding more water (eg labor and 401k retirement pensions etc adding to stockmarket)

>>57879317
Lots of people stopped looking or are on gibs or hiding with family. I think one in three is not working, yes.

In 2007 when I was getting drivers training my instructor was explaining how all the housing construction in the county was slowing down and there was some kind of problem. There were ads on the radio for "jumbo loans" so that people could get bigger houses for the same income requirements on their mortgage. Gas was creeping up but it wasn't bad yet. When the economy tanked it felt like half the state was losing their homes and getting foreclosed and I was mad I didn't have money to buy these homes that were selling for half a mil now they were under $100k, and they weren't even torn up foreclosures, they were still nice, people didn't wreck places on the way out yet. I was trying to sell cutco knives and gas spiked to $4/gallon which came very close to making it not even worth it driving all over the county trying to sell these knives. I filled out my fafsa late so I didn't get federal loans my first year in college but I convinced my parents to cosign a private loan and I figured the downturn couldn't possibly last four whole years, so I would go to college and graduate into a recovering economy. Because Bush and then Obama didn't let shit crash properly, that never happened, so instead of catching the last chance to get on the job experience somewhere I wasted four years stressing about money in uni and then couldn't find work when I graduated.

OP, we're still in the last crash. WE'RE STILL LIVING IN THE 2008 CRASH. Ron Paul was right and continues to be right. Everything's on life support. Only people with government connections can get loans because nobody has any fucking liquidity, it all comes from government money printers. Buy guns and ammo: you'll need them.

>>57878411
>We're on the edge of solving human productivity via AI and this will have an unimaginable impact on economics.
Protip: Buy as much Fetch.AI as possible

>>57877722
Stocks will have a rough year or two when the chip/AI bubble bursts. It's not the end of the world though. Crashes happen. Study them, profit from them. Get rid of the doomer mindset.

>>57878411
>A macro issue
>DONT LISTEN TO MACRO LARPS THEY DUN MEAN ANYTING
Meanwhile, Anon here is so short-sighted from years of adderall abuse, he needs a microscope to see his penis. Microeconomics only exists because Marcoeconomic conditions allow for it and moves the market more. YOU EVEN FUCKING QUOTE A MACRO EVENT SUCH AS AI IN YOUR ARGUMENT!

>>57878411
>We're on the edge of solving human productivity via AI and this will have an unimaginable impact on economics
I feel an extremely strong urge to short AI stocks when I read shit like this. This is the kind of retard causing this AI bubble.

>>57878411
>We're on the edge of solving human productivity via AI

Meanwhile, the only "products" to use AI or little toys you can use for free.
Holy fuck, we're in a massive bubble with an imminent dump. Thank you for making me see this clearly now. Buying SMCI puts tomorrow.

You could buy houses and condos with cash, less than 50 cents on the dollar soon after 2008, biggest transfer of wealth in history. An underclass of renters was solidified. You need optimism for a real crash, we're locked in doom.

>>57877722
>shit crashed
>coasties btfo
>money printer goes brrrrr
>massive bullrun
Sometime its all coming down
Is it now? Or is it in another 15 years?
Every time we fail to genuinely fix it (playing Minecraft on the government servers, all of them) it will only get worse

>>57878411
This is an interesting data point, but your views on AI are optimistic at best, and in my opinion downright wrong. I see AI as a bubble outside of automating art, but time will tell who is right. Thank your for your insight into post 2008.

>>57878499
I don't use X, in fact the only social media i use is 4chan. I'm posting based on the instore prices that seem fucking retarded.

>>57879171
The way they calc unemployment is a meme lmao

>>57879233
I'm more concerned with the inverted yield curve, but these are good points too.

>>57879426
I dont think the crash has started yet, which is why i was asking what it was like right before the crash. I was going INTO highschool in 2008 and don't really remember much besides chasing skirt and playing vidya.

>>57879591
I have enough guns and ammo. I dont really see a full tier collapse happening as it took the roman empire generations to get to that point.

>>57879633
Fuck off shill

>>57879647
Not a doomer mindset, I'm fairly set financially, I just want to understand why the markets are acting all retarded. It doesn't make sense, and it frustrates me. Pic related is how I feel every day we don't have circuit breakers going off.

>>57877722
The US will last for 150 more years and the idea of a collapse might as well be fictional cope.

>>57877722
>08 crash
There was no Bitcoin in 2008, idiot

>>57880342
>ignoring one of the major events that spurred the launch of cryptocurrency

>>57880342

>>57878474
you might be right but like most bears you're probably wrong. broken clock and all.

>>57878526
new deal infrastructure projects. money printed out of thin air.
financial crisis 2008 money printed out of thin air.
every day money printed out of thin air.
you must be young.

inb4 yeah but this time it's so much more than before.
>yeah. it is. and ten years ago it was so much more than ten years before before that. and in ten years from now it will be so much more than now. just the way it works. it's all numbers. magic. you don't 'appreciate' the magic involved. you believe the larp of economics. when the economic principles apply you say 'look, it stands to reason.' and when the economic principles don't apply you say 'idiocy.' Because you believe the larp of economics and don't appreciate the magic.

>>57878887
the forestalling is true, but then 2019-20 happened. that was a huge contraction that allowed for this bull. of course many were left behind and they refuse to see it.

>>57879171
important

>>57879175
'CAN be SOMEWHAT prolonged but not REALLY by MUCH' ... can be, somewhat, not really, much.

>>57879250
change meaning of words. yes. but riddle me this. if they don't count some people who AREN't working, but also don't count some people who ARE working, what are the real unemployment numbers? After all, immigrants without papers, of which there are many, ARE working.
So you're right when they say the way they count unemployment these days is lies, but it's a more complex lie that settled after seeing truth run away.

>>57880291
yeah. it will be slow and steady. doomers gonna doom though and they'll confuse the fall of autumn for the hooves of the horseman and then confuse winter for the end of the world and won't see spring even when the birds are singing.

>>57880342>>57880342
best reply in the thread. just not sure if intentional or not. but kudos sir, kudos. ok, benefit of the doubt. especially with the , . you've made the most genuinely insightful comment so far. winner.

>>57881235
>change meaning of words. yes. but riddle me this. if they don't count some people who AREN't working, but also don't count some people who ARE working, what are the real unemployment numbers? After all, immigrants without papers, of which there are many, ARE working.
>So you're right when they say the way they count unemployment these days is lies, but it's a more complex lie that settled after seeing truth run away.

You're retarded bro.
If there's 20-30 million extra Spics working under the table in the US which is what they suspect but have never acknowledged, then their employment numbers are even worse on a per capita basis.

Truth is what the other anon said. About 30% of Americans are out of the workforce and not even looking for work. 40% of the jobs are non-productive Negroids and women in government bureaucracy who do nothing.

It's a totally fraudulent zombie economy.

if you add 30 million working people (who aren't currently included) to the total number of working people then the percentage of people as unemployed goes down.

100 work.
5 don't work officially.
10 don't work really.

5% unemployment rate officially.
10% unemployment rate really.

130 work.
5 don't work offically.
10 don't work really.

3.84% unemployment rate officially.
7.69% unemployment rate really.

this board sometimes.

>>57877722
I was 17 in 07. I had a highschool friend whose parents were absolutely terrible with money. He owned this 1991 Chevy cavalier that his parents got from an elderly neighbor so my friend could drive himself to school. They paid like $400 for it and it was in perfect shape for its age. I know this because i used to take care of it with another friend of mine because he never had any money.

His parents sold it for $700 to a stranger so they could take out a lease on a new toyota yaris for the “Family”. About a month later his dad’s ranger got repossessed so he had to use the yaris to drive to work. My friend now had to bum rides off of us to get to school and on occasion his mom was calling taxi cabs so he could get to school.

One day we were going over to his house and he called us and said to show up to a new address. His parents had sold their old house and bought a new one. The new house was a 550k mcmansion in one of the dozens of gated communities that were being built in my area of Cali. The house was so big in comparison to the stuff from their old house that they couldn’t furnish most of the rooms and their little 3 seater couch and tiny TV looked like a joke in the massive, vaulted ceiling living room.

A few months later the 2008 crash happened and they lost the house and have been renters ever since. I recently got back into contact with that friend after a long hiatus and he's still living with his family that appears to have been in a state of arrested development from then until now.

This has always been the strongest indicator for me. When are the most financially retarded people “Getting in” and what are they able to get their hands on. There are a dozen or more fast flip homes in my zip code that were bought in 2022 for 800k and were 200k-400k over the assessor value. These people are already underwater and are paying somewhere to the tune of 6k-7k a month on JUST A MORTGAGE. It sure feels like 2008 again to me.

>>57877722
It was insane before. Mortgage scams all over. Buying on reverse mortgage swaps. Arrogance like you wouldn’t believe about the market being forever bullish. Huge investments into defence contractors at the time. It’s was wild. I lost a lot of money in 2008-2010. Didn’t lose my house or my job though but had to sell 2 investment properties at a loss and use my stock sales to pay off the mortgages. Did everything I could to avoid bankruptcy and succeeded. It was a dark time. This isn’t the same. It’s mainly just retards trying to make a quick buck and getting scammed by sand niggers. I don’t see the same signals now as in hindsight from back then but hey…. Shit could always self destruct for a number of reasons. Have a backup plan.

>>57881764
6k-7k is crazy to me. I bought a house with my mom in 2021 at 2.5% interest and I pay 700 for my half. Its 2 stories so I only see her when i want to and vice versa. Thanks for your input friend.

>>57882554
Thanks for your input, I may just be seeing shit that isn't there. Everyone saying "it's different this time! AI will change everything" makes me want to strangle someone cause history says its never different.

>>57880342
This may be a hot take, but if the economy tanks crypto will tank with it. Has anyone done a comparison on crypto vrs recession markets?

>tfw you're older than everyone else in the thread recounting 2008 experiences

>>57883502

idk l, wasn't that bad honestly. people sensationalize everything to feel important. If you weren't on the trading floor it wasn't that big a deal for a normal person

>>57878474
You talking trash anon, we're navigating the bull run, it's crucial to step up, considering the heightened anxiety in the market. Drawing from my experience, I've noticed a one-stop solution gaining significant momentum and attention. The streamlined approach of Tap, in particular, caught my eye. Its simplicity has the potential to significantly reduce the complexity of DeFi, making it more accessible for many.

>>57884012
The fact that an AI is this bad at imitating a genuine human interaction means we need to short tech fucking immediately

>>57878411
I'm an oldfag this shit feels moreike a mashup of 2000 tech bubble plus crypto bubble. NVDA and such will survive but they are massively overvalued by people like you who have massive FOMO around AI

>>57884071
Amen

>>57880291
The U.S. stands as the world's largest economy, and any potential collapse might be a concern for future generations. Meanwhile, I've initiated a consistent DCA strategy on XTP, eagerly anticipating the launch of Tap's operations in the U.S.

>>57884071
How will this earn you rewards? It will take time to refine these interactions. I would much prefer do something that will make me more money than engage in such garbage.

>>57877722
>>57877722
>Dotcom
"Websites are the future anon!"
"Invest in this BBQ website that has no form of monetization or business whatsoever!"

>Housing
"Buy this house before it sells Anon!"
"No credit required! Just like the other 400 identical houses in this development block!"

>= AI Tech + Commercial Real Estate

"Big woke chat bots for art are the transhumanist future anon!"
"Back to the new normal as Sleepy Joe says!"

"So much AI productivity to be had with zero liability or obvious risk as everyone totally needs to work from the office job they definitely kept to use it..."

>OLD OLD
The reality is you will see signs... clear signs... things are cracking. You do.
You need to look for road hazards as they approach. Know when to swerve.
Something will seem to give and it will magically be saved.
Something nobody was watching will give and no one will believe it. But you.
Because you noticed the cracks. You noticed the fakeouts and all the while that insane rally started to get a tad shaky...
And then the panic sets in.

>Tl;Dr
It will rally like it's '99 or '06 until it suddenly and subtly doesn't. It's all one big party. Until the music stops and no one notices but you.
Trust your gut and look for the bumpy top of the coaster.

>>57877722
Theres no crash happening anymore. It was meant to happen last year around Aug-Oct but it just didnt.

>>57884857
I was too young (was in high school in 2008) to invest back then but I remember the histrionic behavior from every adult I knew. And God the news was depressing from about 2008-2011. Every single day all we heard was "the world is ending. the economy is dead. nobody could have predicted this!". By the time it was over, I was so doubtful that nobody could have possibly predicted it. It's just nice to hear someone else say it that doesn't think that.