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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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57869699 No.57869699 [Reply] [Original]

>American discount retailer Big Lots
Big Lots invest thesis summary: bankruptcy or 10x+ returns. It's a very high risk play!

>Bankruptcy is likely
American discount retail chain Big Lots (NYSE: BIG) in trouble
Long-term debt of $533M in asset-based lending facility
Net loss $-463M (ttm)
6 quarters of deeply horrible negative EPS figures
$46.6M in cash, sold California distribution center (Apple Valley) and 23 stores
Shareholders won't get anything after a bankruptcy, don't be a BBBYQ baggie

>Shorts still greedy, /smg/ still bearish
Shares Short (Feb 15, 2024): 6.9M
Outstanding shares: 29.22M
23.6% short interest

>Quickly return to profitability
Executives are reducing costs with project springboard
Project springboard: $200M+ savings in COGS, SG&A and increasing margins in 2024
Inflation is hitting hard, consumers are ditching Target and Walmart, favoring budget stores instead
If interest rates drop, housing market gets more demand meaning more sales for BIG in soft/hard home categories

>Juicy low stock price
Price/Sales (ttm) 0.03
Price/Book (mrq) 0.48
Book ratio is misleading as inventory will not be able to be sold for full price if Big Lots goes bankrupt

>Michael Burry is in
Q4 2023 13F of Burry's fund Scion Asset Management, LLC
Bought 225,000 BIG shares
Between $807,750 to $1,822,500, 1.85% of portfolio

>Big Lots Investor Relations
https://www.biglots.com/corporate/investors/news
https://www.biglots.com/corporate/investors/sec-filings

>Useful links
https://www.biglots.com/
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BIG/big-lots/net-income
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/768835.htm
https://stocktwits.com/symbol/BIG
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIG/community

GME 2.0? Meme short squeeze could be a play, social media is picking it up
>Buckle up: WAGMI

Previously:
>>57863054

>> No.57869807
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57869807

>>57869699
>Insider buys
May-December 2023: 5 buys of directors, board members and CEO, total of 86,000 shares at prices between $4.85-$6.29
No sales since 2022-04-06

>Extremely aggressive share buyback play
BIG currently has a market cap of $151M
$159 million remaining under its December 2021 $250 million authorization program
Ample liquidity thanks to high 24% short interest
If in the following quarters they can reduce their losses and return to their historical annual net income of $100M+
And scramble enough cash for A) general business B) debt down payments and C) share buybacks
BIG can buy up to 99% of shares outstanding at current stock prices
Would allow the company themselves to take advantage of their low stock price

>P/E and sales ratio comparison to competitors
Once cost savings are in and EPS is profitable, P/E ratio is expected to go to 20-30, same as Dollar General, Dollar Tree, TJ Maxx, Ollie's, Wallmart, Target.
If BIG returns to their historical annual net income of $100M+, ignoring short squeeze and share buyback plays, expect a 10x return.

>Share price targets with expected $100M annual net income:
P/E ratio of 5: $17.11
P/E ratio of 10: $34.23
P/E ratio of 15: $51.34
P/E ratio of 20: $68.45
P/E ratio of 25: $85.57
P/E ratio of 30: $102.68

>Q4 earnings coming up TOMORROW
EPS expected to be strongly improved YoY for Q4, retails strongest quarter
Preliminary Q4 results: "We delivered fourth quarter performance in line with our guidance on comparable sales, gross margin rate, operating expenses, and inventory. In addition, we generated substantial cash flow in the quarter, which was used to pay down debt on our $900 million asset-based lending facility."

>Latest
Target earnings beat
/PRNewswire/: Big Lots Acquires Hearthsong Toy Inventory Reinforcing its Commitment to Extreme Values in Latest Closeout Deal
/PRNewswire/: Big Lots Appoints Maureen B. Short to its Board of Directors

>> No.57870323

where are all the fat women going to shop when big lots is gone?

>> No.57870422

Big lots is a good store dinna du noffin wrong

>> No.57870582

bag lots

>> No.57870607

Here to spread the word anon, we are going to get the moon, fellow BL owners. RALLY

>> No.57871132
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57871132

>> No.57871142

I'm thinking MRVL and AVGO earnings will pop so hard and push NVDA right into the 900s. Therefore, 925$ 3/8 calls. QED.

>> No.57871144

I have 5100 shares

>> No.57871156

How to make it all back with one trade ?

>> No.57871171

>anf dumps
Why

>> No.57871172

>>57869807
Hey can we make shilling Big Lots an offense like shilling game stop or bby outside of their containment threads? I’m getting sick of this guy

>> No.57871236

>>57871171
Name one reason it should have been so high to begin with? Its not 2006 who the fuck buys ANF clothes?

>> No.57871305

>>57871236
Apparently it's quite popular again, the way champion is popular now . They beat earnings by 5%

>> No.57871307
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57871307

nice thread OP
bought 666 shares

>> No.57871322

>>57871172
No. I also think it's an amazing and affordable opportunity. Especially for those of us who just trade derivatives to step into the big daddy investor shoes. Fuck You Nigger.

>> No.57871329

you know at this point i don't know why you fags don't just get into shitcoins. it you want a risky 10x or nothing play there's literally several thousand shitcoins out there to choose from. no need to have burry p&d you lol

>> No.57871444

THE $BIG SQUEEZE

>> No.57871694

>>57871329
because the two are not mutually exclusive

>> No.57871741

>>57871329
and the opportunity is more interesting than niggerfaggotjoebidendturmp10000xcoin

>> No.57873322
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57873322

>>57871329
>it you want a risky 10x or nothing play there's literally several thousand shitcoins out there to choose from
A 99.99% chance to get rugged. Stocks in general have much more favorable odds and protect you from scams. BIG is an undervalued company that is priced for bankruptcy when in reality their level of debt and buying up inventories suggest that the risk of imminent bankruptcy is neglible

>> No.57873388

>>57873322
>protect you from scams
Lmao, I remember how GMEtards were protected from being able to close their positions

>> No.57873444

>Never played with stock options
> claims crypto has better gains

NGMI

>> No.57873690
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57873690

>>57871444
>>57873444
Double equal trips checked.

>> No.57874344

you think we're hitting 12.5?

>> No.57874379
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57874379

What the hell, I'm in. You dorks can dump it now.

>> No.57875573

>>57874344
Check the second post for P/E and price/sales on other discounter store stocks

>> No.57875710

My big lots feeling stinky, high volatility near earnings is good in my eyes

>> No.57876563

im gonnanfuckingcum

>> No.57876568

bros...

>> No.57878219

Back to green in AH as expected.

>> No.57878352
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57878352

I just baught 10,000 shares. Don't @ me.

>> No.57879393
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57879393

>>57878219
someone knows...