/biz/ - Business & Finance

THREAD THEME:
https://youtu.be/azEvfD4C6ow?si=eITrC-M2RQuecGbK

>>57759915

>>57760199
Kek

>>57759915
Whoops, accidentally just made a duplicate
>>57760359
Mods, please delete mine

>>57760392
You can prune the thread on your own, click here (pic related) and then scroll to the bottom and click delete.

Looks like US indices will enter a correction phase might strengthen the dollar and push PM's down, but if they extend the BTFP in March meeting, I think we're going to see ATH's for many commodities and a resurgence in inflation.

>>57760759
Looking at the inverted yield curve there is actually also a very real chance of a recession

>>57761044
Sure, but the yield curve could stay inverted for years, and even when the Fed begins cutting interest rates the PM markets keep on rallying for a few months before they correct and rebound after interest rates bottom.

>>57761099
just pointing out the predictive nature of the yield curve. Higher than 50% chance of a recession in the next 6-12 months imo

>>57761245
>just pointing out the predictive nature of the yield curve.
Oh no I'm not arguing against that. I'm merely pointing out that the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates isn't so bad for PM and PM equities in the short term. Pic rel NEM and FedFunds rate.

>>57761335
Yeah PM and PM equities especially are actually pretty attractive to me here

>>57761696
Yup if the majors rally 30-40% while interest rates begin to come down, the juniors do a few 100% gains, of course we crash after that until interest rates bottom (as the crisis shows itself).

>>57761790
Or we keep crashing until sentiment bottoms

>>57761932
Or that yes.

MAU broke out today, and AMR crashed back to support. Any other interesting movers today?

>>57762395
Chalice Mining had a 24% pop today (yesterday Aussie time).

>>57762421
I noticed that too but for now I'm out of the name sadly. Wanted to time the PGMs better and had other plans for my portfolio.

>>57762569
It was a no brainer to me, T1 project $100M in cash meaning they don't need to raise capital for 2024 (hopefully), and the stock was down 90%.

>>57762662
I honestly need to take a closer look at their project when I have the time. I am a bit doubtful of its supposed tier 1 nature at least if they intend to mine most of that resource. The PEA numbers were distorted by them using extremely high nickel price assumptions north of $20k/t. But if they high grade it I think it may be tier 1, I just need to do some closer DD

>>57762799
>I just need to do some closer DD
Yeah, I get your point.

Horse baggie copiun

>>57759915
>a stacker reclaimer that digs dirt out of the ground

honestly didnt realise these things existed until i played Rust. ive only ever seen these things on rails and had no idea they could do this

anyway, what narratives do you guys expect to play out of the next year or so? iron ore recovery, coal continue to get JUSTed, lithium bounce back, etc? ive been holding a uranium miner for the last few years but feel like the market is going to cool off for a bit

>>57764395
>These people unironically think Barrick and Rio Tinto are interested in BHS.
I mean if they actually believe this... idk It's delusion on another level.

Crypto bros won, I kneel. Peter Schiff was wrong.

Who needs gold when we got a in effective way of moving money which cost $100s of dollars per transaction?

$2100 gold and $30 silver wen?

uranium

>>57764535
Hmmmm....wish I had an account in good standing to blow some smoke up those asses

>>57765096
Kek El Salvador switched to Bitcoin to lower remittance costs (large amount of money in the country is brought in from family in America) and they ended up doing the opposite. But their president Bukele has laser eyes in his Twitter pic, so it’s all good.

>>57765387
Textbook depression due to living in a depraved and hopeless society.
But as with Germany in his time, there is hope.
Yes, I am something of a Nationalsocialist.

No refunds

Dead CMMG thread soon bitcoin threads and shit coins are coming.

>>57765510
>spot under $100 again
uraniumbros... we're having a rough time

>>57768726
why didnt I buy crypto, someone tell me why

>>57769278
You are fated for a perpetual feeling of FOMO

>>57769309
tell me when gold will moon so my mining stocks will rise? I've been waiting for an eternity

>>57769387
Never.

>>57769416
ACK

Miners in Copler are will missing, I mean is this normal or is this rescue operation really slow?

My calendar has another modest disappointment penciled in this weekend. ID GET

GDXJ to 0

BTU seems to be coming to a consolidation point huh?

>>57769789
big reversal coming soon

>>57769752
they're all dead

huge news for NFG

>>57770906
The headline grade is smeared to hell.
Collin Kettle is a scammer.

Canadian Natural & Centennial Point released FY23 results today. Looking good in both.

>>57771108
Crescent Point*

Bump
Also, here's a meme I like, not only for what it says, but because there's a horse in it, and horses are cute.

>>57770906
the new zones keep coming!
>>57770981
lil shorty, like rocketretard, has made his way his way to /cmmg/ to spread his kike FUD. They already have found around 5Moz near surface and the deeper drilling is coming jew faggot

>>57772000
checked

>>57760759
I remember when this was the talking point in 2022

>>57765096
How much does it cost to ship bars of gold across the world instantly?

>>57773071
Very nice horse

>>57773080
I don't understand? The BTFP didn't exist in 2022.

>>57772017
>lil shorty, like rocketretard, has made his way his way to /cmmg
How on earth does anyone find us? We're literally the slowest moving, least populated thread on furchinz. And we have already named and shamed a bus load of scamming likes so we're jaded as fuck. The only people who have anything to gain by coming here are those of us thirsty for knowledge.
We might not make much money yet but we're the highest IQ thread on /biz/. Hell I'm not even trying to make money I just like mining history because that's when mankind really took off with civilization building. Can't build shit without tools. Need metals to make those tools.

----- by the way I sent you an email Red

Lassenigger >>>/out/

>>57772017
Jew Found will never be mined. It's a loser except for those with founders' shares.

>>57773560
kek, what retardation. better send your DD to Sprott, NFG is his biggest position and he has over $300M on the line.

NFG has deeper seismic drilling coming soon and shorts are in a panic that results will crush them, plus they have the rising gold price and fed cuts to worry about.

>>57774139
>Sprott
He hasn't been relevant for years. He's wrong more often than he's right.
>shorts are in a panic
If this was the case the stock price would be flying from short covering.
>the rising gold price and fed cuts
2 moar weeks.
>retardation
Look in the mirror.

>>57774371
>2 moar weeks.
But for real this time

>>57774139
>Read his retarded comments
Not one original though is to be found. It's all trite pump regurgitations.

>>57774600
>SALT
How original and /CMMG-esque.

>>57772017
oh thats some good looking gold!

>https://jaycurrie.. substack.com/p/battle-of-the-blobs-bayhorse-and
>Bayhorse has not begun to drill yet. There are encouraging signs of copper staining at surface in the staked area and we’ll see how the samples our billy goats have collected assay. But shipping a drill across the Snake and up to a drilling pad will be essential. The good news is that, with the anomaly close to surface, it should not take all that long to have some preliminary results. The very good news is Idaho is one of the most exploration and mining friendly jurisdictions in the US so permitting should be smooth sailing.

>Were I BHS CEO Graeme O’Neill, I would move Heaven and Earth to permit and reconnaissance drill the resistivity anomaly in the southeast corner of the VTEM survey. Initially, short holes, 300 meters to see if there is decent grade near surface. Drill right for the near purple on the VTEM.

>A decent hit, with decent grades, and BHS is over $1.00 and the big companies will be eager to fund “Bayhorse Idaho Copper”.

>This may be a lot bigger than BIG.V

I'm losing my fucking mind

>>57774600
facts, retard

>>57764395
these are the retards trying to create a reason to pump a shitty stock. They post here with their "we gone make it horse bros" posts. After hours of real DD it always makes me laugh to come here and see the latest horse cope desperation.

CNQ making new highs today. Comfy hold.

>>57776012
I bought 3k's worth back in september entirely in solidarity with cmmg shitposting. I sold everything in december and its so strange seeing it sincerely shilled outside of here, borderline depressing

Gold and silver miners doing a lil sum

>>57775691
>I'm losing my fucking mind
Its a scam. Graeme never got a mining permit. They did not even apply for a mining permit for years after claiming they were mining. BHS had an exploration permit, which strictly limited what they could do, the pumpers lied repeatedlly about BHS 'mining' and making money. This was called out before early on and the scammers were also the jannies who banned posters pointing BHS pump was a fraud. I had spoken to the Oregon agency that issues permits several times and know that once BHS finally submitted a mining permit application it was incomplete, BHS was notifide it was incomplete, then BHS did not repsond for years, but BHS kept claiming they were mining, then got caught, then claimed the previous owner mined ore and left it in the mine and BHS merely found the ore ( a stunt pulled before with a different mine). Simple understanding, simple review, shows its lie after lie. Once you see the losers here support it you know you can never trust anything they write. They use multiple different IDs to give the impression its different people with the same info/support. Its a stiff lesson but you learned an important one, hopefully before you put at risk real money. This scam will help you better understand what to look for in other scams. You can call/email the regulators directly and ask for copies of their files and see for yourself. If you are going to invest in miners you need to be able to review the published reports and look for the obvious bullshit and omissions.

Benton Resources second round of drilling results coming any day now.
Probably will be released tomorrow before PDAC.

>>57777970
How is this related to commodities, mining or macro?

>>57777995
Everything is related to commodities, mining of said commodities and therefor macro economic environment, especially glowing silicon tits. Just think about what goes into conceptualizing these tits, producing them, implanting them and marketing them.

>>57778062
Can't argue that fact.

https://www.mining.com/lithium-potential-mapped-in-northeast-british-columbia/

This could be interesting, any time new government technical data gets dumped new stuff pops up.

Steel broke below 800 today! Still no scrap price update but I imagine it's below 400 now, maybe tomorrow.

I'm very interested in what the dollar will do next, seems like if the EU cuts rates we'll see another move up in the DXY. But maybe that'll be on hold for a bit. The strong dollar is a headwind to commodity prices, it seems. Both the Fed and ECB have dampened market expectations because of strong economic data and labor markets. I'm even thinking we might not see a cut this year in America, who is really asking for it? The stock market is skyrocketing. Maybe the ECB will cut in June. I know Germany is hurting, but seems like everyone else is okay.

In other news, I hurt my neck somehow and can barely turn my head. I'm taking one of those steroid packs, got an MRI, and X-ray. If all else fails, maybe I'll livestream the suicide.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2696-tsx/tsk/156867-talisker-intersects-24-41-g-t-au-over-1-50-metres-from-the-bralorne-gold-project-resource-conversion-program.html

Some good intercepts at Bralorne, too bad no ones interested in these guys or the property.

I was reading a news story today about Biden's visit to the border. The story made sure to include some local's complaint about mining dust making her life difficult. They have to insert the "Green Agenda" into everything. Sorry I don't have the link and can't recall the name nor source of the article, as it was just something I read quickly while checking updates on things while getting ready to go underground.

Anyway, I just can't help but think there is an agenda to minimize all mining, agriculture, and heavy industry in the Western nations. From the farming regulations in The Netherlands to what Pan Man says about hostility to mining in British Columbia, it just seems to me there is an anti-basic-industry agenda at foot, like the West is being systematically de-developed.

>>57781293
Also, there is a lot of pushback to what I suspect is a de-development agenda, of course, and there is no guarantee such an agenda would be successful. But I just suspect such an agenda might be afoot.
"Climate change" is the justification, but whether the actors who would be behind such a plan are true believers or are just using climate change as an excuse is another matter for debate.

>>57781423
there really is a serious de-industrialization focus in Canada lately too. You see lots of talk around developing "green tech" but then you have the environmental minister say that the federal government wont be funding any new roads or bridges. The Liberal gov wants to do as much economic damage as it can before it gets booted out by the Cons in the next election.

How is whipsaw gang doing? Next week we will buy into green then sell into red days later again!

>>57781293
Biden was all against allowing new off-shore permits in the Gulf.. until it wasn’t politically expedient anymore and it became clear higher energy input prices would inflate goods prices and sour American consumers sentient.. it’s all an act.

>>57782324
You may be right. Maybe Occam's Razor in this situation says the politicians are just reacting to green idealism that's popular among their base (on the leftish side, that is).

>>57781742
It kinda wigs me out how the people in charge of developed countries can be so nonchalant about giving up on modern civilization.

>>57782526
their not, they get to go live in some comfortable gated part of europe while the rest of us go down with the ship.

>>57759915
Is this the german thread?

>>57782607
I'd imagine their vision is to preserve resources and modern lifestyles for their own kind for as long as possible.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/farming-natural-resources-and-industry/mineral-exploration-mining/documents/mineral-titles/notices-mineral-placer-titles/2024-02_mineral_cell-release.pdf

If anyone wants to have a look, these are the up coming forfeit or confiscated claims for hard rock coming open on March the 6th 2024. I ve got to go look through this for a weekend and see if anything interesting pops up. A lot of ground was dumped this year.

Gold at key resistance. If it breaks up I'm throwing all my cash into miners

>Gary is becoming more bullish, just released to go in leverage in GDX. He thanks, the bottom might be in, depending on today and Monday morning. Still not all in, but 1/2 position. We shall see....

>>57785322
just needs to break this resistance and we're good to go

>>57784817
>>57785322
>>57785548
I think we need the dollar to weaken in order to get an appreciable move upward. ECB keeping rates a bit higher is helping keep the dollar down for now, but I feel like with the situation in Germany and general weakness over there they might have to cut more than we will in America, at least short term.

>>57785591
Not necessarily, seeing how well gold has held up despite dollar strength makes me think that demand for gold remains robust.

>>57785322
I'm not one to leak often but it's important to emphasize that he is adamant about the bloodbath phase still being a real possibility, especially with the dollar potentially having put in a DCL, and any leveraged 50% position taken today must only be taken with the conviction to be held -through- that bloodbath, with the remaining 50% to be added at the bottom.

>>57785694
>he is adamant that the line will either go up or down
riveting analysis

>>57785712
>oversimplifcation of legit strategies to catch trending moves
high value post

>>57785639
Well just recently the dollar has been weakening a bit. Gold is holding up well, I just think the big move will be when we start to see some appreciable weakening of the dollar, and I think this recent euro/dollar movement might be short term.

If I am correct in anticipating ECB rate cuts in 2024, that should result in the depreciation of the euro; my guess from the charts is like 1.06dollar to euro because it's down on that support line. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding supply chains and energy prices also poses downside risks for the euro. Europe's reliance on the Suez-Red Sea route for trade with East Asia, coupled with its dependency on imported energy unlike the US. This reliance becomes particularly pronounced as disruptions in the Red Sea often stem from geopolitical uncertainty, which tends to bolster the dollar. But short term, I imagine the euro to regain some strength based on the cut anticipations being moved back. I just think in terms of a "big move" upward, we would need to see other countries in better positions currency wise. Right now US is kinda in a good position, comparatively.

>>57785829
only high quality posts in /cmmg/ as we all know
>>57785913
I think rate cuts will happen in the US at least, because the Fed follows late indicators. So I think there's the chance that they start cutting rates into increasing inflation, note the recent tentative rebounding in inflationary data. That could prove to be fortuitous for gold. Otherwise China's stimulus efforts may improve commodity fundamentals at the expense of the renminbi

>>57764395
>>57764535
>>57776012
>>57776630

The new claims Bayhorse flew the VTEM over came back with news that could have phenomenal consequences. These developments are objectively bullish. This data suggests Bayhorse may have properties worth more than Hercelus now. Quite hilarious really.

https://jaycurrie.substack.com/p/battle-of-the-blobs-bayhorse-and

>>57786001
>I think rate cuts will happen in the US at least, because the Fed follows late indicators.
Yes, I think the Fed will react slowly. The rate cut anticipations I think are still optimistic.

>So I think there's the chance that they start cutting rates into increasing inflation, note the recent tentative rebounding in inflationary data.
Shelter is like 35% of the CPI data, so imagine lowering rates now with the way housing is and having mortgages get cheaper. We are seeing SOME slowing now in housing. Anecdotally, in my neighborhood, prices are flat but there is more stuff coming on the market and staying on for longer, but I think we'll know more by summer when we asses the spring sales. Stock market is sky high also, making everyone feel rich and spending more, and I don't think rate cuts would help that.

Cutting rates into increasing inflation would be suicide. I think they will wait for their data to show better control before cutting.

>Argentine steel producer Acindar halts production amid sharp drop in sales
>https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/argentine-steel-mill-acindar-halts-production-for-a-month-due-to-sharp-drop-in-sales.phtml
Prices getting too low, time to do planned shutdowns. We may be entering the bottoming phase for steel! There are rumors that some American companies plan on doing some shutdowns as well, but nothing I've found yet concrete. This is showing that some steel plants are seeing this as a good time to sit on the sidelines until inventories drop.

>>57786923
In contrast coking coal prices remain strong and steady

>>57785322
Where is he at on oil?

Gold broke up above its resistance. Time to be long.

>>57785829
Me on the left

Insane that gold is today likely going to test its all-time high and the market (and cmmg) is absolutely sleeping on it.

>>57787364
No one is sleeping, we just all have our position already. I transfered the last 500$ from my bank account, will add a bit but PF is ready.

>>57787391
I'm certain many here are not ready and have cash on the sidelines. It's very silent both here and in the market more broadly speaking. Nobody thinks gold can break into new highs, that's how bad the sentiment is! And the miners are also totally giving gold the side-eye!

>>57787415
I agree. I've been riding this bearmarket for 3.5 years since the top in 2020 and have never seen such negativity. Miner always moved, even just a bit, when PM showed strenght. Now buying some at really ridiculous price.

Not complaining, I'll fully enjoy this transfer of wealth.

>>57787452
Yeah I also started at the top of the 2020 bullrun, and this is the first time I see the market like this. The beatings have been so bad and so thorough that there is very little confidence and interest despite gold literally testing ATHs. Absolutely bonkers, but I'm buying everything I can get.

Outside of gold, energy looks very strong with oil going up despite all predictions and uranium stocks resuming bullish trends, coal and coal stocks remain strong. Dr. Copper looks set to possibly break up above its resistance from here too. Strong market to be a commodity chad all around right now

>>57787026
Yes. I think we're going to reach a point where the mills are going to need to lower their capacity to try to drum up some backlogs and increase margins. There are rumors of some domestic shutdowns as well, so, will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Gold broke the ATH.

>>57785913
>1.06
coming September 2024 the Euro is going Turkish Lyra style with Germany going PIGS and France following afoot

>>57775691
>>57786136

Read what that dipshit wrote and think carefully about what you know about BHS.

>curry
Pajeet...

>>57788020
>responding to bait
not based

>>57788050
ah man i got got

>>57788012
Can you give more info on your thoughts? I don't see that happening but I do feel like Germany is unraveling and could be the first one to pull down the rates over there.

>>57787051
Choppy, yet doing what it's supposed to be doing i.e. advancing phase of the new IC.

It's outperforming GDX today

>>57788192
Interest repayments vs. bond rate.
Germany is being de-industrialized, has an unstable unpredictable high cost shit green energy grid and a socialist government, that blew up the budget and triggered the constitutional debt break not even 2 years into their robbery.
Germany has no room for new debt, on top Germanies GDP is going to nose dive with Boomers retiring and niggers flooding, both unproductive groups expecting to be fed. I wouldn't hold German debt at 30%

>>57787391
>I transfered the last 500$ from my bank account, will add a bit but PF is ready.
Added to IRV.

>>57788376
none of these things are enough to justify some sort of hyperinflation episode in september 2024 - six months from now

>>57788227
>It's outperforming GDX today
Well it was lol

>>57788435
the milkshaking isn't over yet. Europe was deadly wounded by the USA trying to save themselves. Without German productivity and industry, the euro is worthless compared to the dollar

>>57788376
I agree with >>57788435 that all of this is true, but, the timeline will be much longer. I think automotive is in for a world of pain over there, their car industry can't even keep up with the Americans at this point, let alone the Chinese. All the new German cars are just completely tone-deaf and their government, and therefore people, are doing all they can to destroy that industry.

>>57788523
The influence of American tech communists definitely broke the German car, chemical, medical, energy, mining and steel industry. While the toy car failure is a bruise for the US and Asia, the EU, which is practically Germany cemented the dead of their industry for planned economic suicide in law.

>>57787415
>Nobody thinks gold can break into new highs,
Ngl, this pop in gold today kind of surprised me. I have most of my investments but still around 15% cash position left. Kind of torn right now between buying or waiting, since I didn't expect gold to go up so much.

>>57788506
the milkshake guy seems to think when the shake gets made that gold will also rise, although maybe he doesn't mean in dollar terms. Honestly would be kinda hilarious if he was right about the dollar, considering how many people want America to fail.

>>57788621
I think the Germans did that to themselves. I've spent quite a bit of time in Germany since I was very little, and the country has always been full of pussies.

>>57788693
what are the alternatives to the dollar? yen (lol) euro (lmfao)
people constantly talk about 'muh collapse' without proposing the alternative that everyone in the world will adopt by concensus

>>57788673

Gold going higher doesn't mean the miners are going to turn around.
They could easily still keep eating shit for the rest of the year regardless of how gold moves, as they have been doing for the last couple of years.
The returns are simply far better from tech for people to rotate into the PM sector for now.
We might see a small pop in miners because of gold's move, but I wouldn't bat an eye if they fell even lower afterwards.

>>57788744
Why have all these faggot gold miners been posting negative eps with gold above 2k? I'm balls deep in a bunch of jan 26' leaps

>>57788693
The subservientness of Germans is legendary, no question about that. While the US threw out the crown and most of Europe got rid of its absolute monarchies, Germans licked boots. But the driving force behind the "green" socialist destined to fail tech bullshit that crippled Germany came from US tech communists who just understood to use the Germ

>>57788744
>Gold going higher doesn't mean the miners are going to turn around.
No, It's not about the price it's about the sentiment if gold starts making new ATHs for weeks on end it will get headlines and sentiment will become bullish in the miners, even though most of them aren't worth shit.

>>57788506
>>57788693

>>57788716
I think the alternative is going to be trading with friends, and that has started to happen. Russia and China trade without using dollars, for example. China is starting to trade with India without dollars as well. That process will take a long time though, especially in places with semi-free economies (since business people are likely to want to stick with dollars). Then there are also foreign rich people who park money in dollars, which I don't think is going away either.

>>57788795
Even the big mining companies are struggling. Rising costs for labor and equipment have squeezed returns. Teck Resources spent $9bn to develop its Quebrada Blanca 2 copper mine that opened in Chile last year. It cost double what it estimated in 2019.

>>57788817
Ah yeah, I'd believe that as an influence. All the CEOs over there think they are from Palo Alto and have turned their entire lineups into computers. Just look at this retard running Mercedes.

>>57788873
To clarify, I'm not sure it will play out like that, but I do think over the next year or so we're going to see the dollar strengthen.

>>57788401
are Jap milkers back in play?

>>57788973
Down 60% but still holding. Would have added more if I had the cash but Its a good position already.

Wanna sell some BIG to buy more silver stocks right now. Will do it if we get a clear breakout today or Monday.

>>57788973
if i went to japan i dont think i'd ever come back

>>57788911
The scary thing about the German business "elite" is, other than the American tech communists who do it for individual profits and know when to pull out, Germans believe in the crap, same as they did in the 1930s and the 1950s - 1990.

So is this the big one?

>>57789123
Needs to close above last closing high but yeah I think this is it as far as bull signals go

>>57759915
Is it time finally to go long on oil? I thought we might test lows once more but its really starting to go up there

>>57788994
>>57789001
good luck based frens

>>57789198
>webm
Lmfao.

>>57789180
Some of the quality companies are cheap even if oil goes down. Exxon, Chevron, Diamondback, Arc Resources, CNRL, Petrobras. idk where oil is going but the good companies are too cheap to not own a little bit of

>>57789260
imagine finally making it only to be crushed to death by a wall of Jap qt ass

>>57789491
>AIEEEE NO DONT LICK THAT ASS AND START STRIPPING NOOO DONT START FURIOUSLY FUCKING THAT ASS BRO DONT DO IT NONONO

>>57789491
>The chad licking the pussy and jerking himself off, while the betas panic trying to find a way out.

>>57760199
I've been gone for a couple years. What's the tldr on what happened to BH?

>>57789180
It was time to go long in Oil back in December (when I was telling everyone to go long Oil).
Why did you wait so long? You missed an almost 20% move.

>>57789556
>chad
kek

>>57789583
Graeme is preparing to drill the world's largest porphyry, Japan WAGMI imminent

>>57789583
TL;DR said they would mine the deposit and drill, simply did jack shit and continue to do so

>>57789694
>apan WAGMI imminent
Kek.
>Webm
Milk.

can the jap posters please stop i jerked off twice already

>>57789859
You're just asking for trouble with that comment.

This looks like the big one in gold. Daily chart slow stochastics not even embedded on the upside yet, weekly momentum curling up with room to run.

>dell moves up 30% in a day because the ceo mentions AI
>we're excited about our shiny rocks going up 2%
i mean i'll take it but...

>>57790122
Yup, I was expecting the miners to bounce with gold crabbing around $2000 and then, for gold and miners to sell of and form a bottom there, but looks like it's not going to play out that way, pretty sure of it.

>>57790149
>we're excited about our shiny rocks going up 2%
It's not about gold being up 2% it's about the change in sentiment it will bring, which will push the miners up a lot of juniors are a x10 just to get to the previous 2022 highs.

>NYCB
It's over.

>>57790182
hmm. yeah, the miners seem to have lost their historical correlation with hold.

>>57790298
I mean either gold goes down or the miners go up. That were exactly my thoughts up until the pop in gold today. Now I think the miners have to catch up, because gold Isn't going down.

>>57790380
some more high inflation data that leads people to think the fed will keep rates higher could knock gold right back down. but, yeah, they have really come unhinged. I think part of it is that the speculative people are really flowing into the AI shit and bitcoin.

>>57789694
godly tits holy shit

>>57790122
>>57790151
Next week will be very interesting. Buy the fucking dip is now in play.

>>57790551
NVDA is close to resistance, so I would think the stock market doesn't have that much steam left in it, meaning a correction is due.

>>57790944
I meant the miner/precious metals space rather than the broader equity market.

>>57791039
Yeah I know, The stock market doing poorly is good for gold is what I mean.

Crazy to see how quick some of these juniors can reverse.

>>57791058
Ah I misunderstood. Yeah the narrative in broader market is shifting from "it's actually different this time" to "well we may be in for a rocky road ahead"

>>57791080
Yeah my wording was poor. Things sound good in my head but they don't translate what I'm thinking when I write them down. Yeah no wonder sentiment is shifting at least with the smart money since we had a ~20% rally in indices.

>>57791074
The whole sector has been so oversold that it's not that surprising. People have been waiting for a shift like this to come for some time now, and watchlists are monitored tightly

>>57791148
Going to be an interest Monday. Going to monitor PM futures and maybe even set some orders for some juniors if the stars align they might even get filled. Might be time to put the cash I'm holding on to work and wire the money to my broker. Something to ponder this weekend.

Also a lot of central banks in the world are cutting interest rates including China. Japan hasn't even raised them, and by that I mean foreign currency will be competing for the same goods with the West which could push up inflation globally. The Fed extending the BTFP and/or cutting interest rates this year will be the cherry on top.

>>57791268
The whole week will be interesting to witness. I'd love to see a bit of a pullback but I think the gains will be extended to Monday at least since this new ATH in gold likely wasn't expected by the market

was Gary Says wrong again?

Wow was he actually right this time?

Wow was Peter actually right this time?

>>57791641
Audibly keking.

that machine is so cool

kek

>>57791641
Broken clock
>>57791810
I knew sentiment was just way too bad. If fucking Kiyosaki got bearish you know negative sentiment was overstretched

>>57779599
Why is the volume on HRC so low? Is the lack of volume an indication that steel isn’t a great place to trade around? The last thing you want is to not be able to unload a futures contract before you actually have to execute the trade.

$2,083 gold is now a reality, and a new all time high

>>57789556

>>57791881
Steel is mostly delivered rather than cash settled. Iron and scrap are even less volume. It certainly is less accessible than common stocks or mini-futures type trading, but the actual volumes of steel traded (in terms of cash amount and tonnage) are obviously absolutely massive. Steel futures are mostly used for large companies to hedge, would be my guess, as much as there are "traders". So they put hedges out to normalize their production costs for some time period. I used to work for a company that did this with aluminum, the company would hedge the aluminum price so that we could safely tell customers prices. That way if aluminum went up a bunch, they had some sort of hedge that would compensate for our increased cost, but if it went down obviously we wouldn't benefit as much. That's what hedgefunds used to be, they were just to "hedge your bet" rather than beat the market like most of people think of a hedgefund now.

This is coal anon. Just wanted to say I am really trying to get my company, as well as Peabody, to invest in Indonesia, which is becoming one of the mining capitals of the world. It's a business friendly country and would welcome Western experts showing them how to make their often rather outdated mining processes more efficient.
There is HUGE potential business activity in engaging with Indonesia's mining sector. But so far, the Western coal giants, like Peabody and Arch, just like to stick to the West.
Asia is where the action is for coal today.

>>57792376
Why Indonesia is it the coal quality and/or because they aren't the ESG type? There's plenty of coal in the west.

>>57792460
Indonesia's coal production is skyrocketing every year and their whole mining sector is as well. They export giant quantities of minerals and are open for business to foreign investment.
Coal mining is in decline in the USA due to ESG. Indonesia doesn't care about that. They're liberalizing industry in general to grow their economy at light speed.
Asian coal mining companies often use more than 10 times the number of people to mine the same amount of coal as Western coal companies. So there is a lot of room for efficiency increases that could be achieved through mutually beneficial business relationships between Indonesia's mining sector and Western mining companies, especially in coal.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mining-giants-are-worried-that-a-flood-of-cheap-indonesian-nickel-could-wipe-them-out/ar-BB1iTWgn


>Indonesia's 2023 coal output, exports hit record high amid robust demand
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/012224-indonesias-2023-coal-output-exports-hit-record-high-amid-robust-demand#:~:text=Indonesia%27s%20coal%20production%20hit%20a%20record%20high%20of,an%20increase%20in%20demand%20for%20global%20seaborne%20coal.

Peabody already has mines in Australia. I don't see why they aren't opening up or partnering with Indonesia's coal sector. Asia is where the action is with coal in the 21st century, at least until Africa gets more developed and really comes online as a major economic zone later this century. So as coal declines in the West, and we have by far the best coal mining technology and methods, it makes sense to start setting up shop in Asia.
Indonesia I imagine as just a stepping stone into Asia. Getting into the Indian and Chinese coal markets would also be a huge deal.

>>57792460
I'd love it if America would build up the infrastructure and relationships to become a giant coal exporter of American coal to India, Southeast Asia, and China, but this isn't happening, and distance is part of the issue, but lack of will is likely the bigger issue. (Africa, in a few decades, will likely see huge coal demand and we are much better positioned, geographically, to export there.)
So in lieu of direct American exports to Asia, then using our expertise and technology to mine more efficiently in Asia is the next best thing.

>>57792806
I'm trying to get these ideas heard. My company is listening, or starting to listen, and it could become a big thing for them.
I also have some ties to Peabody but I am a mine section foreman with no access to the c-suite and there seems to be no pipeline to send ideas up there.

>https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-appeals-court-ruling-allow-000320495.html
Tonto giving Arizona hell over mining their ancient spirit land or some shit

>>57792376
>work as a coal technician
>receive samples from indonesia quite often
>tfw its some of the worst shit ive ever seen

ive seen shit thats up to 35% moisture. 35%! it doesnt even look wet when i take it out of the bag, more like brown dust

any leafs going to PDAC this week?

>>57794615
Asia is buying over half a billion tons of it each year. Asia needs enormous quantities of coal -- and more each year.
I'd prefer the U.S. export to there, but failing that, then getting our companies into Asia is the next best thing.
As mentioned, per capita, one US or Australian miner produces up to dozens of times as much coal as an Indian, Indonesian, or Chinese miner. Some is due to mom and pop coal mines in operation in Asia (which used to occur in North America too), but some is due to lack of enough modern technology and expertise.

>>57794615
Also, out of curiosity, what are the geographic locations of some of the best coals you've seen?

>>57794615
Asia is not so concerned about coal quality as they are about fueling their rapidly growing economies, which is exactly how the West developed. Asia has the infrastructure to clean the coal of ash and even burn it without releasing much sulfur. Different coals are also blended to meet emissions standards, mixing higher quality with lower quality coals.
I'd love to hear more about your knowledge of different coals from different regions, as a coal technician. It's very interesting stuff and relevant to mining company expansion.

>>57792245
>Steel is mostly delivered rather than cash settled. Iron and scrap are even less volume. It certainly is less accessible than common stocks or mini-futures type trading, but the actual volumes of steel traded (in terms of cash amount and tonnage) are obviously absolutely massive.

Can you expand on this? I understand hedging with futures and the rest of your comment, but this part is a little odd to me.

Are you saying that most steel trading that occurs globally is just private forward contracts? What do you mean by delivered rather than cash settled? My understand is that for every futures traded commodity, only a very small portion of the contracts actually get fulfilled, the rest are just speculatively traded or used as a hedging strategy.

Thanks for your insight!

>>57794615
Just one other thing:
If I may ask, what type of company do you work for where you are a coal technician grading the technical characteristics of coal samples from different regions?
I am curious, because it might be right up my alley and I may need to refer to such a company to make my case for expansion of my company, and possibly Peabody, into Asia.
Indonesia I view as a stepping stone for Western mining companies to get their feet wet in Asia. The bigger prize is India and, top of them all, China.
That's the jewel in the crown of coal.

>>57794743
>I'd prefer the U.S. export to there, but failing that, then getting our companies into Asia is the next best thing.
Well really, the ideal scenario would be US and other Western nations like Canada, Australia, the UK, Germany etc. producing lots of coal for their own consumption in the energy sector.
Second to that would be exporting some of the gigantic reserves of the U.S., Australia, and the North Sea to Asia and Africa.
Third is setting up mining and mining support services in Asia through established American or other Western coal companies.

Or maybe doing it all would be the idea.

bump

https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/EU-Mulls-Extending-Steel-Safeguard-Measures-Amid-Flood-of-Imports.html
TL;DR dying European steel industry desperately being held up by import "safeguards" (bans)

>>57794743
im actually interested to find out who is buying this shit because its quite bad, im assuming its buyers in asia in general as i cant see a buyer shipping literal dirt (all the stuff ive seen from indonesia is brown coal, but they might have bituminous stuff too) and shipping it across to the other side of the planet

>>57795007
that makes sense, china used to have a limit on the sulfur content of the coal being imported (less than 1%) but i have no idea if thats still in place. im based in australia and we blend the fuck out of these coal types, ive heard of coal cargoes (as in the coal stockpile being loaded onto the boat) being blended up to 24 times, if not more. makes it difficult from a technician perspective sometimes as the ash profile isnt consistent across the cargo, same with the sulfur content, some clients tend to "sweeten" (less sulfur) or "sour" (more sulfur) the end of the cargo. still have no idea why they do this but it might be due to running out of coal and just loading some from a different stockpile. talking about blending coals these companies always seem to blend coking coals, which can be a pain as we test all the coals that go into that stockpile / cargo, and then test it when its blended, which can give us interesting results as people expect the relationship of the coking tests to be linear when they certainly arent

australia probably has some of the best coal in the world, at one point at least half of it (where i was working) was going to japan. nippon steel buys so much coal its unbelievable. ive seen coal from sweden that wasnt too bad, and a region just above japan (that long island above japan that the soviets took over in ww2), which have both rivaled the quality of our coal. chinas coal isnt the best hence why they import so much of it, i was happy when they stopped buying australian coal as they require a bunch of extra tests that are completely pointless but they started buying again around the beginning of (cont)

>>57795007
last year, around the time i started getting way more depressed hah. whoever imports it needs to convince the chinese government that its thermal not coking coal

>>57795463
im from australia and theres 3 companies that do this, ALS, BVI and SGS. im not sure how much of a presence that ALS have in the US but BVI and SGS definitely do. peabody have mines here and are always producing coal, ive heard that they as a client are a massive pain to deal with but outside of the two mines in NSW (wambo and wilpinjong) i dont know much about the company

ive done an awful job answering your questions so i apologise in advance. just out of curiosity, how many tonnes does the average coal mine in the US produce, and do they export much of it? we pretty much export the entire lot here

>>57797255
Very informative answers, in fact. Thank you very much
Yep, Australia has some of the world's best coal and best coal miners. I would totally be in favor of Australian mining companies and mining support companies setting up in Asia to ensure the future of these Australian companies against the extreme environmentalists who believe CO2 is pollution.

The US also has some of the best coals, in fact by far the most bituminous in the world (full bituminous -- not sub-bituminous as we call it or black lignite as you might call it).
One Peabody mine here has coal with less than 0.4% sulfur, about 12,000 btu per lb, and the mine has virtually no methane to act as a hazard. It's still mining after 40 years and can go another 10, then a new mine set up by Peabody nearby for decades of more coal mining in that immediate area.

>>57797255
Wambo and Wilpinjong both produce seaborne thermal, while the rest of the Aussie Peabody mines produce met coal, hence why there are lower standards for the coal from Wambo and Wilpinjong. Those coals are just meant to make fire to boil water, not meant to be made into coke.

>>57797255
Will address more of your reply in a short bit. I have a quick chore to take care of.

>>57797255
>Wambo and Wilpinjong coal goes to Asia, which doesn't have the highest pollution emission standards, but which, however, can be burnt in some of the new Chinese coal-fired plants very cleanly due to the high-tech coal plants that China has been building.
Illinois Basin coal here is high in sulfur, often greater than 5% by content. There is a decent amount of ash in the coal in some of those mines too, but the Illinois Basin has a tremendous amount of coal reserves, equaling several West Virginias. The Clean Air Act devastated Illinois Basin production a few decades ago because, instead of building sulfur scrubbing plants, coal burning electrical utilities just turned to coal from other places, largely the Powder River Basin, which produced gigantic amounts of sub-bituminous/black lignite coal, of around 8800 8,800 Btu/lb. The Powder River Basin mines are surface operations working on coal seams some 90 feet thick.

>>57797255
Mine sizes in the USA range from a few hundred thousand tons per year at some mines, like in southern West Virginia, including Alpha's mines, which often produce metallurgical coal when they are that small, to 12 million tons per year at CONSOL's Baily Mine in Greene County, Pennsylvania right by the northern West Virginia border. Bailey might still be the largest, i.e. most productive, underground coal mine in the world.
Other giants include CONSOL's Enlow Fork Mine, which is also in Greene County, PA, and which produce 10-11 million tons per year, and the big ACNR (American Consolidated Natural Resources) mines in northern West Virginia, also mining the Pittsburgh coalfield. Those are Marion County Mine (formerly Loveridge before being sold to ACNR by CONSOL in 2013); Harrison County Mine (Robinson Run before the CONSOL sale); Ohio County Mine (Shoemaker before the sale); and Marshall County Coal Mine (formerly McElroy); they produce around 7-9 million tons per year and are considered "large" underground mines.

A medium sized underground coal mine is maybe 4-6 or 7 million tons per year, and these include Sunrise Coal's Oaktown Fuels Mines 1&2 and many others across the country, including Arch Coal's Leer Mine in the Tygart Mining Complex of northern West Virginia, which mines the Lower Kittanning Coal Seam rather than the Pittsburgh seam also found in that area (northern WV up to Pittsburgh, PA). Yes, there are multiple coal seams under some places. The Pittsburgh seams are often around 8-9 feet thick and the Lower Kittanning in Grafton, where Leer Mine is, ranges from 5-8 feet thick. This is extremely pure metallurgical grade coal and last year Leer Mine produced something like 4.4 million tons of this coal.

>>57797255
The giant surface sub-bituminous coal mines of the Powder River Basin in Wyoming can produce, altogether, hundreds of millions of tons per year, with the two biggest -- Peabody's North Antelope Rochelle and Arch's Black Thunder -- each hitting around 100 million tons per year in the past, like in the 2010s, though Powder River Basin coal has been declining along with the general decline in steam coal that's occurred in the United States.
So the biggest mines are surface sub-bituminous operations, and they are the biggest by far. The biggest underground coal mines mainly mine the Pittsburgh seams in southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.
There are many medium sized coal mines producing maybe 3-4 to 6-7 million tons per year, and the smaller underground coal mines produce mainly metallurgical coal for coking.
There used to be many, many more small thermal coal mines all over the USA, but with the Clean Air Act and the attack on coal in general since the 2010s, in favor of natural gas (which is now in turn being attacked as possibly worse than coal for leaking so much methane), most of those smaller thermal coal mines are gone now. More's the pity.

>>57797255
Southern West Virginia and west Virginia, and also northern Alabama, produce much of the US's best steelmaking coal. Though there are exceptions in terms of location for met coal mines in the US.

https://giresearch.substack.com/p/gold-investors-weekly-update-mar?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Friend told me about this. Apparently they found a big helium deposit in northern minnesota. Isn't it a coproduct of radioactive decay?
https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/helium-discovery-northern-minnesota-babbit-st-louis-county/

Meteoric Resources released news on their metallurgical progress at the Caldeira Ionic Clay REE project. They have now demonstrated the ability to produce mixed rare earth carbonate with good NdPr and DyTb recoveries with the planned process flowsheet. Project moving along nicely.

Thoughts on Aztec Minerals? Some pretty good intercepts for a C$18M mcap company.

>>57798501
GV just entered it this month. Prob a good pick. Dont have it as I need more silver than gold, dont have enough cash for all opportunity.

>>57798584
>GV just entered it this month
GV?

>>57798501
Been a long time since I look at them. Will check it out again.
>>57798593
notorious pumper and well known literally-who from xitter

>>57795388
Yes. Steel is mostly purchased directly from mills to go to larger producers or goes to "service centers" that service smaller users. Like GM would buy from the mill, but a HVAC manufacturer buying only 4-5,000 tons a year would buy from a service center.

The other thing with the futures of steel is they don't seem to have E-mini or e-micro futures, so the contract sizes are much larger and that keeps small traders out of it. I haven't dug too much into futures contracts with steel yet, but so far I haven't found e-micro futures contracts available anywhere.

>>57797092
>https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/EU-Mulls-Extending-Steel-Safeguard-Measures-Amid-Flood-of-Imports.html
>TL;DR dying European steel industry desperately being held up by import "safeguards" (bans)
It's an extension of the tariffs, we have these in the US too (larger ones). Without those tariffs, imports become too cheap and the local industry dies. The problem with letting the local industry die is that steel is too critical to national security.

Where the UK is being really dumb is allowing all their integrated plants to disappear in exchange for electric arc furnace plants (mini-mills). The EAF plants use mostly recycled scrap to make steel, it's about 70% of the cost in America, and while it is greener (provided the energy is green), it relies on having a steady stream of scrap to make the steel and with so many EAF plants coming online, my thinking is scrap is about to get more expensive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-humber-68423091

>>57799251
I didn't know all that actually. Thank you for enlightening me a bit

>>57759915
surprised they didn’t add a Coca Cola ad on that thing as well

>>57789180
Spreads seem to be showing tightness in light oil. I doubt US would restrict exports. Permian finally rolling over?

Hump

Dump

is gold actually going up for real or is it just going to torment us forever

>>57803072
This time it's for real.

>>57801584
doubtful. Permian still has room to grow for at least until 2030

>>57803072
>>57803557
I'll probably be glued to the Asian markets open Sun night

>>57804476
And why is that?

>>57804533
we just closed at $2082, a new record. the BIS might have one of their "interventions" planned to smash it back or Chink buying could take out $2100, feels like something big is on the way

>>57804714
>webm
Yeah, didn't think s-something that big was on the way myself. I guess you're right.

https://www.mining.com/web/us-appeals-court-rejects-bid-to-block-land-swap-for-rio-tintos-arizona-copper-mine/

Huge news for Resolution Copper! The land swap plan has been approved!

GDXJ is going to 0
get out of juniors

>>57806201
bottom signal

>>57799198
Are you the Steel Anon? If so I'd be interested in how you trade steel. Is there a fund you prefer? do you get indirect exposure?

For example - I can trade natural gas futures or funds of futures which will auto-roll the contracts for me close to the execution date of the contract. How do you get exposure to Steel if the futures volume is low and it seems there isn't a ticker/fund to use.

So gold is going to all time highs. Are we finally going to make it?

>>57806373
Yes, that's me. I don't have a fund, I just started learning about steel recently. I am a mechanical engineer and have some finance background, but I'm basically just an autist that got interested in steel and hardly an expert yet - so I'd never want someone here to think that. I have correlated that the steel company stocks rise commonly when the price of scrap rises, amongst other things (see attached correlation analysis that I did back to 2016), but I have never traded a steel future before, I've never even traded a future period before! I'm just dipping my toes in the water. I think the best route currently to profit from steel is to own the companies that produce it at opportune times, which will be a mixture of technical analysis (which I need to learn) and understanding fundamentals of the business (working on that now). I think between these two things, we could do pretty well trading steel related stocks. I also think steel is probably a decent macro indicator, because it's one of the pillars of modern society. But I don't really know where it'll end up, I've just found my best successes in life were to dive in deep so that's what I'm doing.

Honestly might be a complete dead end for me to go full autist into steel, but, I have this hunch it will pay off..and it's better than smoking crack or something.

Thank God!

>The American revolt against green energy has begun
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/ar-BB1jbhhO

But they'll probably still try to shove wind and solar down our throats.

>>57807697
:)
I went full autist on coal and it led me to a good place, with foreman's papers and skills and a medium-high income. May do an MBA too, since it seems you need an advanced degree to be listened to at the higher levels of business (have a bachelor's in history, which is a topic I love).
Had a weird journey in life, and just kind of lucked into millionaire status through buying near the bottom of the market during the 2020 crash, but even without that I'd be in a good place now.
Maybe get an MBA and join a major steel company like in Japan or in Europe (if Europe still produces steel). Japan produces some of the best steel in the world.
What better life trajectory for an autist than to become obsessed with some peculiar thing, learn it to expertise, then end up working making good money on it in Japan?
It's the Autist Dream

From the article:

>We must recognize that essentially every “solution” that has been advanced by the climate alarmist community and the globalist elites pushing their agenda requires the implementation of authoritarian policies designed to scale back stakeholder rights, pick winners and losers in the marketplace, and force reluctant consumers to pay the price.

It's exactly the way government is picking energy's winners and losers that ticks me off the most. Let people's market choices decide and coal and gas will be the obvious winners.

Informative bump:

West Elk Mine in Colorado, USA mines an underground coal seam about 26 feet thick, but only mines 15 feet of it with its longwall system and continuous miners. This is very high quality thermal coal, and West Elk is a medium sized mine producing a few million (I think lately around 4 million) tons per year.
Its deepest point is around 4400 feet deep, or 1340 meters.

>>57809238
I drive by that one a few times a year. It goes for miles.

>>57809287
Really cool.
I do love Colorado, but it's just so pricey nowadays. Mining money goes further east of the Mississippi when it comes to coal.

>>57809287
Are you a Coloradan, perchance?

>>57809408
Yes, I'm the mining enviro contractor that lurks threads sometimes for cool pics to save. Just did my MSHA refresher a couple days ago.

>>57809431
Oh nifty.
I might be heading to Colorado for a while on a project, since I travel a lot in mining.
It's just hard to beat Colorado's natural beauty.

>>57809431
I'd love to see Colorado rev up its coal mining and get the state booming again in coal production, but I doubt that'll happen anytime soon -- at least not until the "CO2 is pollution" crowd are pushed out of the way.

>>57809608
last I heard we're actually shutting stuff down. We had a big mine in the NW of the state close down a year or so back. Plenty of coal, but environmentalists killed the market.

Metals are booming along fine still. Gold and silver are getting cautious attention still.

>>57809658
Yep, coal mining is consolidating in the east, around West Virginia especially, as the American market for thermal coal gradually dies out. I find it very sad.
Good luck with metals, though.

>>57809688
Moly has been putting bread on my table for 16 years straight now, which is an amazing run for Climax/Henderson.

in 2020 we had several gold and silver projects in permitting. One is now running, a placer gravel operation. The other is under construction, a cyanide plant to run our old waste piles. Mining is going strong here, but you know how it is. It could all die in a day with a good market crash.

>>57809755
Commodities is a lifestyle where you have to save up money during the good time in order to weather the bad times. Feast or famine. When the getting is good, take all the overtime available. Then coast or take some easy job during the layoffs. (I would just coast, since I have money.)

The only hope for American thermal coal, I think, is a sea change in elite opinion (popular opinion is actually not that "green" and favors the usage of many sources of energy, coal included). The election of Trump could also help, but only if he were to keep his promises -- always a problem in politics.
As I've mentioned before, coal just continued its horrid downward slide during Trump's whole presidency despite all his pro-coal rhetoric. He favored the giant gas companies -- Big Business -- over the coal companies, which tend to be smaller. Even Peabody and Arch, the biggest coal companies, are nowhere near the size of the oil and gas giants.

>>57809835
Which brings me to another point: coal is often produced by modestly sized companies worth only tens or a few hundred million dollars. In the past, there were literal mom and pop mines running out of someone's private 100 acres in places like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Illinois, Kentucky etc.
Coal is much more decentralized of a business than oil and gas, which is part of the reason it gets the shaft from politicians. But I think that decentralization is part of the industry's charms. I'd rather work for a company with a few hundred or few thousand employees than a Fortune 500 company with 70,000 workers.

>>57809835
Oil gas and coal all run radio ads here promoting their use. Which to me is a terrible sign since nobody listens to the radio anymore except boomers like me. And we're phasing out of politics and economics.

Public opinion matters, but price matters more. NIMBY stuff just means we're going to buy the same materials from other countries so we can pretend we're not using it. It's all bullshit but it'll work out in the end. We can't afford to abandon fossil fuels even if we wanted to.

>>57809755
I am a coal lover, but I would consider doing metals for a while -- only in an underground mine -- if the pay were right. I wouldn't mind my career having a metals phase, since a life is like a story with many chapters.

>>57809866
Agreed. And coal mines are located in rural areas where the locals want the decent jobs they provide -- in many cases, they're very highly paid and well benefited jobs compared to the local economy and cost of housing.
I don't think thermal coal will die out in the USA, but I think the dark night isn't over yet. It'll see a revival, at some higher scale than where it is now, but that could still be some years off.

>>57809895
The small UG mines in my area are all dead. Now your only shot here anyways is a massive operation like Henderson. Even then, UG isn't very common anymore. The only reason I do my UG MSHA training is because I go into old mines sometimes. I haven't been underground in a working mine in over a decade.

>>57809914
>they're very highly paid and well benefited jobs compared to the local economy and cost of housing.
Used to be, but by now I don't know of anywhere in my state where housing remains affordable.

>>57760759
BTFP. March 12 is only the day when the banks cant issue new debt, so technically they dont have to pay it back until March 2025

>>57809866
Out of curiosity, what do you think of JENNMAR?
They sometimes try to recruit me as a permanent traveling maintenance miner, largely in their Western Region.
They are a huge and diversified company, a lot more than JENNMAR Services, which is just their staffing agency. JENNCHEM does all sorts of specialty mine work.

https://www.jennchem.com/services

They're fast growing, and even if I work for them mainly in Colorado, I can always go to another region, while staying in that company, if the Colorado mines like Twentymile and West Elk go bust.

>>57809929
I mean more in the east. Average down payment on a house in West Virginia is $6,600. If you make $36 per hour there after getting your black hat in six months, a new miner there, making $100k per year with overtime, can afford to mortgage a home in less than a year.

>>57809953
Also, if I take their offer in Colorado, I will work 9 days on, 5 days off in a mining camp that charges $15 per day for lodging, and I can stay at my sister's house in Colorado on my off days. So not much overhead if I take their offer.

>>57809953
I have no experience with them, sorry. I tend to work with major mining companies directly, and sometimes with their enviro and construction contractors, but not often with the actual production side. I'm busy enough with the cleanup and safety stuff that I don't learn much about the actual mining work.

>>57809971
seems like a sweet opportunity, but you're also doing really well where you're at I think.

>>57809986
>>57809991
Yep, much to take into consideration. I am originally a Coloradan and despite the Front Range cities going to crap, I still love the place. And I have family there, and we remain tight knit after all this time apart.
But I'm doing great here in the eastern region (also traveling, mainly around PA and WV, but sometimes the Illinois Basin and Alabama -- and for a time, maybe, out to Colorado).

It sounds like you're doing well too. Congrats, fren. Mining is a great career path, whether you're in the mines or doing the safety and enviro studies like you do. Lots of opportunity here for young people who want a lucrative career, but of course it is hard work with long hours.

>>57781293
It is. Klaus Schwab and Agenda 2030. Western Europe should be service oriented only, making it the perfect consumer base in form of human ressources. In other words You can sell them anything because they wont produce anything. Perfect cattle.

>>57809986
One thing, though, is I made my pitch to JENNMAR about going international -- into Asia, starting in Indonesia -- and sending out specialty crews to teach Indonesian mines and miners more efficient, safe, and better mining methods. They are interested and my pleas are now reaching the top of the company. I want Peabody to do this too, since I have ties to Peabody and they are the biggest coal company in the US.
If my ideas go get to the Calendra family themselves, and my project is greenlit, I could become a junior executive and lead the charge to keep American coal companies thriving by consulting and mining in Asia.
It could be a big opportunity. JENNMAR has grown 300% in five years and is ambitious as hell. Could be a good place for a guy with a vision like me.

>>57810012
I don't know a ton about the details of all that and the WEF, but I strongly suspect there is an effort to de-develop Germany and weaken it as leader of Europe. Maybe the US doesn't want a strong, potentially semi-independent Europe.

>>57810053
Sounds like a great opportunity as well. I never had any complaints with the company I started working for, but a few years in I found out how much the contractors were getting paid and that decided it for me. I bought a small company and grew it up. There's always room for that... if you're not getting where you want to be you can strike out on your own. There's a lot of satisfaction in being in charge of the company even if it's a small one.

>>57810082
I'll see how it goes with my Asia ambitions and then decide. It's the best plan I can think of to keep American coal mining companies going strong during this dark night of the coal, so to speak.
Specialty miners willing to go to Asia would probably make a small fortune, too.

>>57810181
the only problem I see with it is we save money by NOT improving safety and environmental impact in other countries, so while branching operations out makes sense, I'm not sure that improving them does. Improving efficiency would make a company rich, but safety and environmental impact not so much.

>Have what I think is a solid trading plan
>Whiff on gold swings 3 times in the last month
>Okay this is clearly not working, let's set commodities aside for a bit
>Get long signal on gold
>"Nope, I need to have the willpower to not follow through and stick to my current plan"
>ATH

>>57810082
>if you're not getting where you want to be you can strike out on your own. There's a lot of satisfaction in being in charge of the company even if it's a small one.
I think I have quite a bit of brains. I was a Fulbright Fellow at age 22 to carry out very complex research in a very rough country.
I had a full-ride scholarship in a PhD program where I didn't even have to teach to get a stipend -- just produce research. That, even then, was almost unheard of for a while male.
I left the program due to strong theoretical disagreements with the department, but nonetheless I live very much the life of the mind, constantly reading and thinking, when not at work.
I am at a point when I want to work on the business aspect of the coal industry. I'm a foreman, have an electrical card, know a lot about underground coal mining. I want to go higher.
With big companies, there seems to be an attitude that the highest you can go as a miner is as the superintendent of a mine, or maybe a regional manager. The c-suite is closed to people who just do business their whole lives and lack direct knowledge of underground mining.
I want to bridge this gap and make the leap up.
JENNMAR *might* offer me this opportunity, since they're fast growing and the Calendra family, which owns it, are super ambitious and, it seems, willing to hear new ideas.

>>57810190
Oh, I want JENNMAR, if they do this, to improve efficiency as their main goal. Asia needs it. They take, on average, several dozen men to produce as much coal as one miner in the USA, Canada, or Australia.

>>57810249
In other words, huge opportunity for efficiency gains by working with Western experts. And maybe we could get a piece of the Asian market after developing relations in the coal business, such that we could start building up the infrastructure to supply the insatiably coal-hungry economies of Asia.

>>57810236
Yeah you absolutely have a wall between the operations side and the executives. I get that. I've operated a multimillion dollar firm in industrial mining for 22 years now, but I'm absolutely unqualified to step into the board room of another business and try to run it. I simply don't have the skills or knowledge to do that job effectively.

I think you mentioned doing and MBA, which is a good step in the executive direction, but I have no idea if it's enough to get you into upper management. Probably a bare minimum requirement though.

>>57810249
Just mechanizing a bit would do wonders for their productivity. I'm guessing miners' lives are dirt cheap over there.

>>57810287
>Just mechanizing a bit would do wonders for their productivity. I'm guessing miners' lives are dirt cheap over there.
Absolutely. I have no doubt

And yes, I am very strongly considering an MBA to get some deeper business and finance knowledge. Can do it online and part-time while I work in the mines.

>>57810287
>I've operated a multimillion dollar firm in industrial mining for 22 years now, but I'm absolutely unqualified to step into the board room of another business and try to run it. I simply don't have the skills or knowledge to do that job effectively.
There is definitely a skills and knowledge gap between the "boots on the ground" in the mining industry and the c-suite, and this gap goes both ways. The suits don't know what really goes on in a mine, in any great detail, and the miners don't know business and finance.
Maybe some snobbishness is there too, I'm not sure. But I have high goals and am dedicated to achieving them.

>>57810354
I would support the MBA idea strongly. I never did one. I took 3 years of accounting which overlaps some, and I managed fast food stores before going to college. So I had some idea what I was doing before going into business. But business and industrial operations are 2 very different lines of work.

>>57810414
>Maybe some snobbishness is there too, I'm not sure.
absolutely. And for good reason. Both require skills and talents. Both are things to be proud of.

>>57810427
>absolutely. And for good reason. Both require skills and talents. Both are things to be proud of.
Hell yeah. I'm very proud of my longwall repair skills, continuous miner operator skills, beltman skills, and much more. And of my ability to lead a team.
And what the suits know is a credit to them, though I just wish that, given the very negative attitude toward coal in the West, they'd look toward Asian expansion. Even Australia isn't safe as a coal producer -- producing mostly for Asian demand -- due to their enviro-extremists.

>>57810456
I'm quite proud of being a miner, we're a dying breed. There's a culture and history and brotherhood there. Underground miners especially. We speak our own language and live by our own rules. It's a very cool thing.

we know that. PAN MAN knows. We take pride in who we are and what we do.

>>57810475
Very well said
And for coal, we are a dying breed, or so it would appear in the USA
I am not as concerned with myself being in the c-suite but with the future of American coal mining itself. My expansion to Asia idea could be adopted without me going any further in life and I'd still be quite well pleased. At least I'd know mining jobs are more secure and the established mining and mine service companies have a future.

>>57809949
>is only the day when the banks cant issue new debt, so technically they dont have to pay it back until March 2025
I wasn't aware of that, but either way them being unable to borrow from the Fed is enough to prick the bubble imo.

>>57810475
Just another thought: A part of me believes the folks in charge nowadays, in business, politics, entertainment -- in all sectors of society -- aren't the best and brightest, so I am skeptical of their talent much of the time. They know business, for example, at the higher echelons of mining companies, but they know it through a particular lens taught in business schools, where "efficiency" often just means cutting corners and forcing more work on already overworked people. So I guess I do not have the greatest of faith in coal mine company leadership. Why, after all, have they let the coal industry be cut in half over the past fifteen years? Of course much of that is beyond their control, but I'd just like to know why they stick only to the West and don't go international. I'd be satisfied with just a good, reasonable answer to that question.
I know there is a lot of nepotism just in getting a job in a mine, let alone in getting a job in the executive suites. So I do have skeptical doubts.

>“I personally believe it’s the worst crisis I have seen in three decades, on a relative basis,” said Paul Dunne, the CEO of Northam, South Africa’s fourth-largest producer of platinum-group metals.
Would be interesting to see what will happen if PGMs go lower from here, but I have my doubts that's going to happen.

>>57810204
sounds like you just need to be long and not worry about all the little swings. new ATH is the strongest signal for being long

>>57810971
market can overshoot both up and down. South Africa's mines are fucked not only from a cost versus revenue perspective though, they have issues with infrastructure and the social/political climate there is worsening

>>57810724
It's not really the fault of leadership. It's a normal result of competition. I don't like cutting corners and working my crew to death, but if my competitor is doing that they're going to bring a cheaper product to market so I'm forced to do it too.

This is why I'm a millionaire instead of a billionaire. At the smaller levels with less competition and bigger profit margins I can work ethically and still make money. If I get any bigger I'm competing with companies that ignore safety and treat workers like shit. So I'd be forced to do the same in order to stay competitive.

I've worked for some of the largest miners in the world, and they're mostly pretty bad about cutting corners and driving people to work harder.
The only companies I find that don't do this also don't have any real competition. The best companies I've worked for are ones that either control the entire market, or control their corner of the market.

Which is what I do. I don't have any competition in my area, so I can afford to treat my workers well and not cut corners. The reason I don't have any competition is because I'm a savage competitor, I buy up or underbid every single person that tries to compete with me in my arena. Most companies can't do this.

>>57810724
The other consideration is that you're looking at strategy from the labor perspective. Workers want to be treated fairly, not be overworked, get good pay.

this is well and good.

but if I treat my workers too well, don't demand more work from them, pay them too much, then the company goes broke and they lose their jobs anyways. They wind up working for someone much worse.

so from my point of view when I ride a worker's ass or fire someone for not doing enough, I'm doing the rest of the crew a favor by making sure the business stays afloat and they keep their jobs.

it took me years to understand this. Sometimes you have to demand more from a crew, or they all lose their jobs. It's my responsibility to make sure that doesn't happen.

>>57810724
this
>>57811205
is a brutal and important fact.
Workers tend to think of their employer as some monumental thing that will never go away, never go broke. That of course is bullshit. Companies go broke all the time, and when they do the entire crew often gets laid off. I try to impress this on my workers. If they fuck around all day, we will go broke and they will lose their jobs. All of them. It's not me against them. If I go down they do too.

>>57810724
The other thing management realizes is that you have to demand more work from people than they can actually do, otherwise they do less and less work over time.

Right?
Even if you're working your ass off every day I have to keep demanding more, keep the pressure on, so you don't relax and let up. This is unfortunate, but it's also a fact. Left alone, even the hardest workers will get lazy. The constant whipping for more work is really just to get the crew to keep working at the same pace they're probably already doing. I know you can only work so hard. My job is to keep you working that hard. I don't expect more work out of you, I just can't let you produce less.

>>57811355
>I just can't let you produce less.
the reason again is quite simple

If I let my crew work at their own pace we will go bankrupt and they'll all lose their jobs.

>>57810724
>I'd just like to know why they stick only to the West and don't go international.
generally the markets aren't available for them to sell in, or margins aren't high enough to justify the costs, or the existing producers are working so cheaply there's no way they can ethically compete. Or a combination of any or all of these.

example- I don't take my business model to mexico because I'm making thousands of dollars per hour working here in the US and I don't want to go down there and make $3 per hour to do the same work.

Market share is important at the start of business, but once you've controlled your market you start getting rid of the unprofitable shit. Pareto Principle. Lots of work simply isn't worth doing.

>>57811505
this is just a generalization though.

Lots of mining companies DO work internationally and make money doing it. Usually very large companies that can afford to invest the tens or hundreds of millions to get a mine up to speed and product to market.
It's possible that anon's employer could make that move and be rewarded by it.

>>57807914
lol yeah. Glad it worked for you! Because I worked in manufacturing for a long time, I know a few companies that use a lot of steel, and I'm debating seeing if they want an analyst. I've been talking to one guy I know fairly regularly about what I'm learning about and have shared with him my thoughts on where the bottom is in this cycle. If it works out fairly well, might give me a way in. My dream would be to have my own analyst company and not actually work for anyone, but we'll see! I think I need to also balance finding good ways to display data (useful charts) because it really seems people respond best to visual data like that.

>>57807914
>>57811572
also are you trading coal or natural gas futures now or funds right now? What is your natural gas play right now? Seems to be extremely low, is there a buy an hold play for next winter?

>>57811593
Henry Hub is in fact made the record lowest lows this millenium earlier this year

>>57809431
You got any fishing spots around there, Bob? When I get all healed up I'm driving cross country I was gonna stop and see you and redwood along the way

>>57812903
Yeah, it seems to be in an uptrend now

>>57812903
sorry, wrong anon for >>57812966

>>57811998
Yes, it seems to be in an uptrend now. Or maybe not an uptrend but at some sort of bottom. I guess it COULD go lower, but, for how long until producers start plugging?

I don't know of a way to really invest in that though.

Thoughts on Poo Lagoon?

>>57811545
That's my main gripe: consideration of Asian expansion, at least doing a study on the feasibility of it. You don't take your business model to Mexico due to smaller profit margins, but you work largely in metals.
I work in coal which is dying off in America. To keep this business model alive we might have to go to Asia down the line, or just be put out of business in the next 5-10 years as all the coal-fired plants close down, are converted to gas-fired, or are demolished.
I've said before that I'm personally willing to go to Asia to continue my coal mining career. If US coal companies would either sell to Asia or set up in Asia, more miners could retain their work during this dark age of American coal.

>>57811545
Also, I am moderately hard assed as a foreman. I know the chain of command has to be respected to preclude bad behavior, even though I know that some of the bosses I've worked with are half-competent, half-shitheads.

Also, it's a very good point about how labor must be driven to produce or else they'll lose their jobs, and making workers understand this is a good motivational tool and helps them comprehend why a boss behaves as he does.
Many workers, I think, at least in some murky sense, already understand this, and some know it quite clearly.
It's not in me to be nasty toward a subordinate, rather just rational about business and meeting specified goals in a timely, incident free, and cost effective manner.

Very good insights, though. I will take them to heart to the extent that I need to comprehend more of this stuff.

I do, however, wish that some of these CEOs and other executives taking huge bonuses and golden parachutes for subpar performance would be subject to the same disciplinary regimen as the guys nearer the bottom. It's hard to enforce from a position of hypocrisy, at least for me, and I think a tighter ship a higher expectations from many executives (and I know many work very hard -- there are just also many who seem to get by on big talk) would be a good step in the right direction toward fixing our business culture and society in general -- an ethical improvement.

>>57811572
Founding your own steel market consulting business could be excellent and I am rooting for you to succeed. It might be good to get into an established business for a while just to learn more before going out on your own -- might help you get the cred to pick up clientele.
I think you're on a good path, though. The power of the autist, obsessed with some peculiar topic that isn't naturally or automatically appealing to everyone, to master a topic and then contribute to society through application of that mastery has probably a key driver in technological, scientific, and general civilizational progress.
In a way, therefore, you are doing God's work. :)

>>57811593
I'm out of trading except holding a bit of Alpha Metallurgical Resources, some CONSOL, some Peabody, some Arch Coal, and a few others. About $100k worth
I made huge returns by investing near the bottom of the 2020 crash, mostly in Alpha, and got over a 100x return on a relatively small investment. Made me a low-level millionaire, which for me, since I am accustomed to living frugally, is in fact "fuck you" money -- I can walk from any job because, with around 2 million dollars including my work savings, I can sit tight for a looooong time if need be.
But I like being underground and working in a mine, especially an underground coal mine, hence why I work still and worry so much about coal's future in the U.S.
I wish you all the best, Steel Anon. I am impressed with your passion and learning and thinking. You have the talent to do interesting things with your life.

Will bake up the next thread in a bit
This one can go a bit longer -- maybe hit 315 before I bake

>>57813563
wouldn't touch it with a long stick for the sole reason that the CEO is unqualified.

>>57811368
Also, I am in favor of a wealth structure more similar to that of mid-century America, where the middle class has a much greater share of the pie than they do today. I don't know how to achieve this, aside from a strong labor movement and a crisis big enough to rattle the billionaires into giving concessions -- but how to make these things happen is another matter.
If, say, the maximum fortune anyone could realistically make were $30 billion instead of $300 billion, and that extra cash among the mega wealthy were in the hands of the middle class, then I think there would still be strong enough financial incentives for people to start businesses and to be generally enterprising. No one is going to say, "Well, I can only top out in the tens of billions someday, so I'll just sit in my mom's basement and play video games."

I believe in a mixed economy with free market competition, which is good for innovation, the consumer, and even for businesses themselves as they don't grow complacent, and also social programs and protections for ordinary people, including protections in the workplace. But I don't want too much or onerous regulation.
As Aristotle argued, both wealth and poverty lead to vice, as they are at the extremes, and virtue lies in finding the middle ground and not going to excesses. I believe in this as a rule of thumb for life decisions and for thinking about the right way to do things. We need to see a middle class revival and revival of purchasing power, and I think a revival in broad usage of coal for energy in America and in the West in general could help to increase middle class spending power.

>>57786136
>>57789694

morning all, should i bake or is someone on that today?

>>57814949
I said I'll bake soon, but if you feel like it, please do the honors

>>57814971
didnt see your post, but yes i ll post shortly then!

>>57814971
i just realized i dont have the up to date /cmmg/ thread post saved, anyone got it handy?

>>57815126
I usually just open a new tab and then copy and paste from the existing thread. Should do the trick

>>57815126
>>57674390

>>57815217
That rainbow anthracite sure is purdy :)
I gave that chunk in the pic in your link, at the top of that prior thread, to a friend of mine.
Here's another chunk I am giving to a friend.

>>57815255
there we go new threads up!
>>57815285
>>57815285

also rainbow anthrocite is stunning!

>>57815304
Rainbow anthracite is amazing stuff. The Pennsylvania special!

>Colorado
Came out here for a contract job and hate the fucking place (Denver metro). Ended up sleeping in my vehicle since rents are so high. Can't wait for this job to be done.

>>57816098
The Denver metro area is a shithole and way overpriced, just like San Francisco. It's all hype. And it's full of junkies and homeless and people breaking into cars etc.
People sometimes even try to set up tents in people's backyards and squat -- I heard this from my sister who lives in the Denver metro area.