/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57675982
>Extremely aggressive share buyback play.
BIG currently has a market cap of $125M
$159 million remaining under its December 2021 $250 million authorization program
Ample liquidity thanks to high 22% short interest
If in the following quarters they can reduce their losses and return to their historical annual net income of $100M+
And scramble enough cash for A) general business B) debt down payments and C) share buybacks
BIG can buy up to 99% of shares outstanding at current stock prices
Would allow the company themselves to take advantage of their low stock price

>Q4 earnings coming up March 7
EPS is expected to be strongly improved YoY for Q4, retails strongest quarter
Q3 guidance: "Expect quarterly year-over-year improvements to continue through 2024; Project Springboard on track to deliver a high proportion of the $200 million+ benefit in 2024"
CEO on preliminary Q4 results: "I am pleased to share that we delivered fourth quarter performance in line with our guidance on comparable sales, gross margin rate, operating expenses, and inventory. In addition, we generated substantial cash flow in the quarter, which was used to pay down debt on our $900 million asset-based lending facility. We look forward to reviewing full fourth quarter results in more detail in our upcoming earnings call on March 7."

Once cost savings are in and EPS is profitable, P/E ratio is expected to go to 20-30, same as Dollar General, Dollar Tree, TJ Maxx, Ollie's, Wallmart, Target.
If BIG returns to their historical annual net income of $100M+, ignoring short squeeze and share buyback plays, expect a 10x return.

>Share price targets with expected $100M annual net income:
P/E ratio of 5: $17.11
P/E ratio of 10: $34.23
P/E ratio of 15: $51.34
P/E ratio of 20: $68.45
P/E ratio of 25: $85.57
P/E ratio of 30: $102.68

>>57675982
i dunno man. retail ain't looking good now days. walmart just axed a few thousand people across it's stores.

>>57676143
Didn't you see the annual report and earnings calls? Walmart is opening 150 new stores over 5 years and may potentially open more

https://www.forbes.com/sites/caileygleeson/2024/01/31/walmart-is-opening-150-new-stores-with-first-two-set-to-open-in-spring/

they barely opened any new stores over the last 8 years so this is a big change.

>>57676143
>>57676152
I saw the earning call. Interesting is that WMT is getting more income from $100,000 households. If lower income household is ditching Wallmart this could be a chance for budget stores.

>>57676236
No. It means that the middle class is imploding and even $100,000+ households feeling the choke enough to shop at Walmart.

>>57677166
$100,000 or above is now middle class. Next to this middle class has been imploding for decades, this means less people can afford to shop at Walmart and have to shop at discounters like Big Lots.

>gme
>bbbyq
>big
top fucking kek. make sure to hold and not swing! lmao

>>57677799
>gme
>bbby
Yes, this is a SWING play. BIG is looking like GME 2.0. It's a risky play and volatile if it works so you need timing on your side for an optimal exit. Second post already has my exit positions which line up with P/E ratios of other retailers.

>>57678092
KEK
BAGGIE

>>57678160
I will only be a baggie if BIG goes bankrupt really soon. Just getting back to book value is a 300% return, getting back to $100M+ net income will be a 830% return to 1660% return. Maybe even a 2490% return with a P/E of 30. This is not factoring in any sort of short squeeze. That's why it's a GME 2.0: both a fundamental play back to profitability and a possibility to squeeze shorts.

>57678207
>I will only be a baggie if BIG goes bankrupt really soon
nobody tell him...

>>57678242
So you did not read the OP and do not understand the investment thesis at all. Of course there is a big risk of turning towards bankruptcy soon. But there's also a good chance that will not happen as the project springboard cost cuttings will be successful.

Just bought ten shares, prepare for the meltup.

>>57675982
Fuck it I bought a cuppa fd's, thanks for the alpha big guy

This is unironically genius. Has the executive team always remained the same? Judging from the charts they dip for a bit but then roar back to like a fiery phoenix with a big green dildo strapped next to its massive majestical cock ready to fuck it's competition like they're the Weimar republic post World War 1.

>>57675982

Michael Burry bought - bullish?

> Burry's Scion Asset Management added 375,000 shares of Warner Brothers Discovery over the quarter. Other new additions included 200,000 shares of restaurant software company Toast Inc , 225,000 shares of discount retail chain Big Lots and 154,142 shares of Gen Restaurant Group .

>>57678312
>So you did not read
correct
i actually haven't read any of your posts beyond the first few words
>>57678334
>>57678391
>ID hopping
kek baggie

>>57678425
>>57678433
>yes ser good DD ser i will not redeem my BIG shares

>>57678444
thanks you for bumping the thread ser

>>57678444
>>57678496

For fucks sake the absolute state of this board is trash

>>57675986
>>Share price targets with expected $100M annual net income:
>P/E ratio of 5: $17.11
Nigga where are you getting these numbers

>>57678510
Nvm I read the pic
I'll continue nursing my calls with my giant juicy milky teats

>>57678497
post picture of your hand kumar

>>57678497
whiter than you

>>57678537
>>57678550

your turn street shitter

bag lots

>>57678718
Agh oof owie ow my $70 bags owwww help! HELP! MY BAGS! HELP!!!!! THEYRE HEAVY!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't care about others joining in or kekking baggies. I prefer to find out the facts and have a healthy discussion on $BIG.
>>57678434
I'm expecting to lose my money, but on the 10-20% or so chance Big Lots can manage their turnaround for long enough to survive I'll have a nice return. In my situation these risks are better than putting it in S&P for a 7% gain. Other 4 pbtid posts in a row are not my IDs, I agree the comments feel very disingenuous.
>>57678510
I don't think you should invest if you can't calculate a P/E ratio.
>Hint: Annual income / shares outstanding = profit per share
Todays P/E ratios from discount retailers range from 15-30 while American superstores have P/Es of 20 - 50.

>>57678760
It's just a little fud you'll be fine

22% short interest isnt anything crazy like it was with GME.
also when would this "short squeeze" occur if it were to start climbing?

>>57678917
when interest rates start getting cut

>>57678941
>two more weeks

>>57677611
>can’t afford to shop at Walmart
Are you fucking stupid?

>>57680076
Don't underestimate how broke half of America is. They can't afford gas to get to a superstore.

im dumping this shit at $5 if it gets there

>>57681433
Your loss. Just two months ago the price was double it is now. Q4 is going to be a key turning point.