/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57630586
Not my strategy to buy into winners, i prefer to buy undervalued coins like 1inch or link before it pumped but good luck its a strategy

Further work :
Backtest investment thesis against last cycle by testing whether the alts with the strongest and most consistent returns in the months leading up to liquidity liquidity starting to return continued to be strong performers the rest of the cycle

>>57630624
If you thought “I don’t like to buy winners that have already pumped “ one month ago then you would not have bought SEI and would have missed out on this month when it was again a top gainer

Most top alts from 2017 had worse returns in 2021 than the successful new alts that cycle and the same is likely true this cycle
Expecting 1 inch or whatever to 10x back to 2021 all time highs is unlikely to happen and even if it does, the winners this cycke will still do better.

People prefer the new things that get more buzz and have better technology
Big winners last cycle were the L1s with shiny fast technology that got good ecosystem growth .
Same is happening this cycke with the new shiny L1s

Basucally only btc/eth/sol are keeping relevant more than one cycle.

The most costly words are “it’s already pumped”
-Hsaka

>>57630743
> -"Use my referral code" Hsaka

>buy high, the post

>>57631134
If you really strongly believe that we’re at strong resistance right now and things will dump now before we’ve gone to 60k
Then you can always wait until after the dump you expect. Then this strategy will work even better. You might get 8-15 x returns rather than 5-10. Or you might get 3-6 x returns because you waited until we went up to 69k before buying

But the point is that the coins with the most consistent strength likely have the most lasting demand, fly wheel effect, attracting developers , activity tvl etc.
so these ones are safer bets than trying to look for “the next x “ or “y hasn’t pumped yet”

This kind of psychology is taken advantage of by influencers who want you consuming more and more of their content learning more and more about more and more different narratives and ecosystems .
They don’t want to just say “ok we’ve identified our winners. We’ll bet on them and see how this bill market goes and farm some airdrops in between”
No they get paid per project they talk about so they have to convince you to keep listening and want to learn more rather than just going for the winners by saying
>”x has already pumped but this next narrative is going to be huge”
>”the next x”
>”missed x? “
>”y washed up coin from 2021 is primed for a break out!”

So go for the consistent winners rather than looking for stuff you probably can’t predict and are more likely to be taken advantage
Especially when we’re about 25% through the bull run. If you wait until when Bitcoin is over 100k to swap into alts then yeah you probably need to catch “the pump” since each will be driven entirely by euphoria that only hits once.

But you don’t need to play it that way right now and probably shouldn’t

A portfolio bought today of just BTC , SOL and SEI is going to be higher Exoected value in terms of x returns than the vast majority of /biz/ portfolios that are being put together today or in the future .

Bump for discussion and criticism

>>57630586
SEI maybe but its a total wasteland at the moment with pathetic TVL. it might pump on 'promise' but how many fast L1s do you need when solana does the job and more when fire dancer is released

>>57630586
Ok but where's kaspa mein neger

All memes aside this makes sense and is something to consider. The thing is eth gambling is so fun bro. This is probably a guaranteed 5-7x but you can get a 1000x bretty easy in a true bullrun on eth

>>57630586
Where's KNS? It's gone up nearly 100% in the last week.

>>57630586
fucking add INJ, WAR, and BTCDRAGON to that list you poor fag.

>>57630586
What's VEC?

>>57632615
Ah, VeChain (VET).

>>57632628
yeah but vechain is exactly a 2018 chinky alt that will never reach its last cycle ath

>>57630586
>buy the movers from the last couple months
What an insight

>>57632564
>>57632594
I already have a big bag if Kaspa and some inj but they didn’t do well on all of the 14, 30 and 60 day periods so don’t quite meet the consistent gainer criteria in the OP

Maybe they build up for longer and have bigger moves , we’ll see.

Wasn't the initial pump that confirmed a bull market back in October? It seems to me although 60 days is useful, it doesn't reflect the whole picture. Plenty of alts/shitcoins had their time to shine between now and then.

>>57632795
This is also something I have considered, who's really to say when the bullrun has started or ended. Much like recessions, it becomes much more clear after the fact.

>>57632734
>>57632795
Yeah, not going back to October means this analysis misses coins like INJ and TIA that are currently ranging/consolidating after huge runs (especially INJ).

There are powerful market makers behind the INCEL trade that will make both of these 2 of the best performers for the rest of this cycle, wouldn't face.

also how is ALPH missing?

I have nothing to add, but thank you for the rare high quality post, brother

>>57630586
Good post. I'm about 35% BTC, 30% ETH, and a handful of alts that I've done fundamentals on

>>57633160
What alts?

>>57631429
this unironically is
>buy high, the post
you're basing all of this off one cycle of underperformance, how do we know this isn't clever ploy from MM to use us as exit liquidity before pumping 2017 bluechips?

>>57632991
>>57632795
Yeah this is a very good point and should be incorporated.

idk if there’s a coin comparison website with custom time ranges or 4 or 6 month time periods
But yeah inj and tia have done well and do seem strong despite consolidating he last month or two

I do wonder if it shows more strength for coins to have a near constant grind up like SEI rather than big pumps and consolidation periods though

>>57633671
BCH meets this criteria, although it goes against your 2017 coins hypothesis.
Pumped 300% last May and has been in an ascending flag for the last 8 months.

>>57633764
Last June*

>>57633671
Didn't find that exactly, but there's a site here with a 3 month range:
https://coinranking.com/coins/gainers

>>57630586
have you backtested this theory?
Have you looked at which coins where doing well 2 months before the halving in may 2020, and if they continued to do well

>>57633242
Old coins have a lot of baggies and retailers.
The only reason for them to perform well would be bullish news or anything related to BTC.
BTC Layer 2 is the current narrative (STX, CKB, ML and more). It's kind of a meme, but it's trending because of le BTC ETF.

OP is not wrong, it's best to buy good performers and new projects after a greater correction.
The issue with new projects like SEI, SUI, TIA are jewish tokenomics. Big and constant unlocks on all of them, but VCs keep the price moving.
Unlike most midwits claim, tokenomics typically don't matter until late stages of bullruns.

> KAS, TAO
No volume & high MC coins. Swing them right after T1 listing or vertical pump. Whales haven't taken profits yet.
The avg volume is less than 1% of the MC so there hasn't been any sell pressure yet.

>>57633987
Not yet. Ranking websites display gainer rankings within last x days not gainer rankings between time A and time B .

So if I wanted to backrest it I’d probably need to do some coding. I might next week if I have time

I’d also need to specify “gainers within the top 100 mcap coins within certain time range in 2021” since small caps seem too noisy and risky for my taste

>>57634063
I thought kas didn’t have vc whales because it launched like btc?

But yeah maybe you’re right about TAO. Why haven’t they taken profits? Is their contract that they’re not allowed to sell until a certain date?

>>57634307
If there is no volume it usually means that early birds haven't taken profits.
Doesn't really matter who is holding the coins, as long as everyone is euphoric and whales don't dump, price goes up.

TAO has 20% APY on staking + mining rewards, so everyone is staking right now.
The projects seems inflationary, but shows actual utility, which is why it's performing so well alongside AI stocks.

Remember, what pumps the hardest will dump the hardest. I suggest to slurp KAS and TAO after a crash and always buy once BTC corrected 20-40%.

>>57630586
>The alts with the best chance of performing well for the rest of the bull run are the ones that have performed the most strongly and consistently in the bull run so far.
Wrong
>We can Identify these by looking at the top performers over the 14 , 30 and 60 day time periods
Wrong
>Last cycle I was tricked to lose or misallocate money on a lot of /biz/garbage and I’d like to prevent some of you from doing that
Surely you jest. Memeshit outperformed everything else in 2021, especially any "tech" coins. "Serious" crypto investoors got rekt last cycle.

>>57633671
I checked top gainers across the last 30, 60 and 90 days. The coins that appeared in all categories were:
SUI, STX, RON, BEAM
I think that's a good indication of the "constant grind up" coins.

If we just look at the 30 and 90 day categories then the list also includes HNT.

>>57634488
Memes do great if you manage to get into the one in a thousand good one early enough.
90% of meme coins shilled on biz will only go up 20% from the time they’re first mentioned on biz then dump to nothing

Idk what exactly you mean by tech coins but L1s did great last cycle

>>57634548
In the end you need to dyor and manage risk appropriately. You're mostly right in your risk management strategy, I just disagree on your identification method, but that's because I largely prefer fundamentals analysis to purely technical analysis (i.e. basing the portfolio on just price history). From my standpoint you want
>majority bluechips
>somewhat smaller allocation of midcaps with sound fundamentals that solve problems in the industry (includes L1s and other tech cryptos)
>very small allocation of high risk high reward (especially memeshit tha retards would love to buy)
In the end we're not that different, I'm just giving you shit.

LINK was the very best performing asset leading up to the bull run and then heavily underperformed the market as BTC reached a new high.

So your thesis isn't bulletproof

>>57634278
coinmarketcap has a "historical" section where you can see what the top 100 where at any given time
https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/

>>57634717
This is a very good point and worth considering. I don't believe coins like TIA SEI INJ will necessarily suffer the same fate, though. LINK didn't have the benefit of market makers incentivized to keep it pumping (and while there will certainly be some sell pressure they won't have anything like sergey constantly dumping)

>>57634752
Yeah the info is out there but still it would be a pain to get the top % Gainers over a certain time period from that

I might try asking chat gpt to do it for me on Sunday night

>>57630586
>Last cycle I was tricked
>buy high
compelling case

>>57634873
Here you go. Price change from Oct 14 2023 to Feb 14 2024. I only included coins that were in the top 100 for all of that time. Also excluded SHIB because of weird formatting thing and I was lazy.

Name | Price change %
IMXImmutable X 587.925041
SOLSolana 525.915875
STXStacks 470.091885
INJInjective 455.483029
SUISui Crypto 454.336579
AVAXAvalanche 449.294245
ICPInternet Computer 433.548387
MINAMina Protocol 408.772969
RUNETHORChain 335.064500
NEARNEAR Protocol 326.530129
KASKaspa 325.534447
ROSEOasis Network 314.231377
RNDRRender Token 285.897503
LINKChainlink 274.453552
ARBArbitrum 256.450282
EGLDMultiversX (Elrond) 248.502496
KCSKuCoin Token 239.686099
BSVBitcoin SV 239.205882
ADACardano 231.211135
WEMIXWEMIX Token 231.158575
WOOWOO Network 229.455567
GRTThe Graph 219.390592
FTMFantom 218.736304
FLOWFlow 213.116573
VETVeChain 209.234685
DOTPolkadot 201.066667
LUNCTerra Classic 200.900589
NEXONexo 197.282980
LDOLido DAO Token 197.259220
CFXConflux Network 196.556903
BTCBitcoin 191.822473
ALGOAlgorand 190.977672
APTAptos 190.835031
WBTCWrapped Bitcoin 188.320356

>>57635243
CHZChiliz 187.044307
GALAGALA 186.903805
KLAYKlaytn 184.372910
MIOTAIOTA 184.103176
THETATheta Token 183.515807
AXSAxie Infinity 182.242991
ETCEthereum Classic 178.275401
CROCronos 177.151015
ETHEthereum 175.486950
NEONEO 175.433526
HBARHedera Hashgraph 175.075461
FILFilecoin 172.049689
FTTFTX Token 170.821406
MANADecentraland 169.241071
MATICPolygon 168.889981
BGBBitget Token 167.779298
UNIUniswap 166.911765
SANDThe Sandbox 163.704514
RPLRocket Pool 162.474438
XTZTezos 161.727219
BNBBinance Coin 161.457274
FXSFrax Share 157.522124
ATOMCosmos 153.706505
TRXTRON 150.323775
MKRMaker 147.309539
DOGEDogecoin 143.652010
XECeCash 140.365449
AAVEAave 139.690642
EOSEOS 137.042961
BCHBitcoin Cash 129.039412
KAVAKava 124.281376
QNTQuant 119.386475
CRVCurve DAO Token 117.699824
OKBOKB 115.436087
TONToncoin 115.394032
LTCLitecoin 111.527331
XRPXRP 109.526318
LEOUNUS SED LEO 109.523810
XLMStellar 108.511537
DAIMulti-Collateral Dai 100.272380
FRAXFrax 100.126955
USDTTether 99.989904
USDCUSD Coin 99.980002
TUSDTrueUSD 98.896395
XMRMonero 83.352933

>>57634873
Here you go. Posting for the second time as I fucked up the percentages. Price change % from Oct 14 2023 to Feb 14 2024. I only included coins that were in the top 100 on the beginning and end dates. Also excluded SHIB because of weird formatting thing and I was lazy.

Name
IMXImmutable X 487.925041
SOLSolana 425.915875
STXStacks 370.091885
INJInjective 355.483029
SUISui Crypto 354.336579
AVAXAvalanche 349.294245
ICPInternet Computer 333.548387
MINAMina Protocol 308.772969
RUNETHORChain 235.064500
NEARNEAR Protocol 226.530129
KASKaspa 225.534447
ROSEOasis Network 214.231377
RNDRRender Token 185.897503
LINKChainlink 174.453552
ARBArbitrum 156.450282
EGLDMultiversX (Elrond) 148.502496
KCSKuCoin Token 139.686099
BSVBitcoin SV 139.205882
ADACardano 131.211135
WEMIXWEMIX Token 131.158575
WOOWOO Network 129.455567
GRTThe Graph 119.390592
FTMFantom 118.736304
FLOWFlow 113.116573
VETVeChain 109.234685
DOTPolkadot 101.066667
LUNCTerra Classic 100.900589
NEXONexo 97.282980
LDOLido DAO Token 97.259220
CFXConflux Network 96.556903
BTCBitcoin 91.822473

ALGOAlgorand 90.977672
APTAptos 90.835031
WBTCWrapped Bitcoin 88.320356
CHZChiliz 87.044307
GALAGALA 86.903805
KLAYKlaytn 84.372910
MIOTAIOTA 84.103176
THETATheta Token 83.515807
AXSAxie Infinity 82.242991
ETCEthereum Classic 78.275401
CROCronos 77.151015
ETHEthereum 75.486950
NEONEO 75.433526
HBARHedera Hashgraph 75.075461
FILFilecoin 72.049689
FTTFTX Token 70.821406
MANADecentraland 69.241071
MATICPolygon 68.889981
BGBBitget Token 67.779298
UNIUniswap 66.911765
SANDThe Sandbox 63.704514
RPLRocket Pool 62.474438
XTZTezos 61.727219
BNBBinance Coin 61.457274
FXSFrax Share 57.522124
ATOMCosmos 53.706505
TRXTRON 50.323775
MKRMaker 47.309539
DOGEDogecoin 43.652010
XECeCash 40.365449
AAVEAave 39.690642
EOSEOS 37.042961
BCHBitcoin Cash 29.039412
KAVAKava 24.281376
QNTQuant 19.386475
CRVCurve DAO Token 17.699824
OKBOKB 15.436087
TONToncoin 15.394032
LTCLitecoin 11.527331
XRPXRP 9.526318
LEOUNUS SED LEO 9.523810
XLMStellar 8.511537
DAIMulti-Collateral Dai 0.272380
FRAXFrax 0.126955
USDTTether -0.010096
USDCUSD Coin -0.019998
TUSDTrueUSD -1.103605
XMRMonero -16.647067

Agree entirely but disagree that any alt that has been performing well will do. You want sub 200m mcap l1s that have been out since last year and no longer. Look at the top 20. Memes stables and l1s. They outperform every cycle. This is the 100x gains.

Shido
Tet
Alph

>>57636116
(cont) basechain presents a unique opportunity because it's so early in the ecosystem and the projects are so few and low cap while they have the biggest onramp platform in crypto. They will have a ecosystem boom and because there's so few projects and they're so low they will capture a lot of the incoming value

Toshi
Grandbase
Avi

I just keep buying KNS and keep making money

>>57636116
Fellow based alph enjoyer

>>57636141
Don’t forget mochi and circle