/biz/ - Business & Finance

That should read "Coal Mining Apu Edition" lol

>>57595330
could have made a HABBENING thread. I wonder how much this ends up costing SSR, and what Turkey's reaction will be

>>57595533
this is bad, but no where near as bad as that spill that happened a few years back in Brazil belonging to Vale. Things happen, Turkey especially has a poor history with mining regulation, SSR has done a pretty good job when operating in europe and the east. I wonder who engineered that dam? This will of course bring even more hate down on mining in general, i assume mining watch and river defenders will be using this as propaganda in a week.

>>57595592
I read (second hand info) that there may be a chance that material finds its way to a nearby river. Is it tailings or stockpiled waste rock I wonder? In any case if it bears arsenic it can fuck up a river or three.

I'm growing weary frens, 3+ years and approaching -50%

>>57595706
the bullrun begins when the last bagholder capitulates

>>57595637
worse, from my research, this looks like its probably heap leach material / fluid. If that gets to a water course, its catastrophic. It appears that too much water / fluid was in the pad, probably built on poorly geophyically tested ground, causing a slip failure. Reminds me of the major failure at Mt Polley mine.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ssr-mining-shares-plunge-61-182344103.html?guccounter=1

>>57595726
fuck it's cyanide and ore? Not good

>>57595706
We started investing in late 2020/early 2021, right when the bearmarket started. Our timing was just garbage unfortunately.

On the good side, being down 50% after the worst bearmarket in PM history is "fine". As long as you hold, we shouldn't be too far from a real bullmarket now... ?

>>57595725
I'll never capitulate

>>57595533
>Erzincan Gov. Hamza Aydogdu said no cyanide had gotten into the waterway. “There is no leakage at the moment,” he said. “If there were, we would explain it to you. There is no leakage into the Euphrates River. There was a landslide, so there is no problem other than this landslide.”
>“The disaster that took place in Erzincan Ilic Copler gold mine is a disaster that (was) coming,” the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects said in a statement issued on social media.
>The union added that it had filed two lawsuits against the mine’s operation. “We said that Ilic Copler gold mine should be closed and rehabilitation works should be started.”
>The Turkish government said social media content about the disaster that “has not been confirmed through official channels and whose accuracy is not assured” had been blocked.
Very different opinions going around some saying cyanide is leaking some saying it isn't some saying 12 miners are trapped some 9 etc...

>>57595752
with heap leaching you have a huge pad with an encased liner material. You build the pad up with low grade ore, laying pipe thoughout the material in a grid. A cyanide solution with water is pumped though the pad, leaching gold / metals out, where it flows out the bottom into collector ponds for processing in a plant. The solution strength is dependent on the ore being worked on, i am not an expert on this end as i am not a mine chemist, but the solutions probably 3% or similar cyanide. Too high and its too dangerous to have staff near the area due to off gas, to weak and it doesnt do anything.

In this case, I am thinking too much water was being held in the bed layers of the pad, its too dense for the retaining wall / dam to hold back and it let go.

>>57595533
Sorry, I had just woke up (have weird sleep times plus can be an insomniac). Had I known, I could have made that the thread theme.

>>57595592
The environmental groups are non-stop in their efforts to defame mining.

>>57595726
SSRM had a leak a couple years that went into the Euphrates and they were fined for the cleanup. Apparently the path to the Euphrates has been closed, but time will tell if pollution has reached it.
>The Environment Ministry said in a statement that a stream leading to the Euphrates was closed to prevent water pollution.

>>57595776
thx fren

>>57595848
These people leave their house in the morning, get into their car, fill up their tanks with fuel, go to their workplace etc... and they haven't the slightest idea that's all a product of the mining industry. The delusion of these people is incredible, They use all these natural resources everyday and they're not willing to give that up for obvious reasons yet they don't want those same resources to be extracted, It's insane.

>>57595884
If you have some cash, I would def look to slurp some FDR and CPAU, its dipping hard right now and quality.

>>57595776
Best just use these prices as an opportunity to buy the companies you like the most.
>>57595909
shady NGO money can dull the senses to reason, or make one deliberately ignorant. Many of these are just irrational extremists though of course

>>57595870
Their going to have to start a huge testing program anywhere near a water course to see if that flow leaches. Pray it doesnt hit ground water.

>>57595953
Thats exactly what I'm doing. Sold 10% of BIG yesterday to open an EQTY position. Not a quality company but very sensitive to spot silver.

I'm looking to add some KTN, OCG and maybe open one last position. Problem is no cash.

>>57595953
>shady NGO money can dull the senses to reason,
No doubt about that, also local populations especially in Latin America extort all these companies working there. Another company in my portfolio (PXT.TO) is down 7% because of protests against oil drilling. It's bullshit, but It's become a normal thing in this sector.

>>57595953
best example for shady shit NGOs did was Panama with First Quantum Metals. Shutting down that massive copper mine was a huge mistake, putting hundreds of people out of work, but more importantly depriving the Panama gov of a huge revenue stream. If my memory is correct, at one point Cobre was generating 5% of the countries budget.

>>57595776
>>57595801
thanks for the copium

What do you guys think of Platinum & Palladium. ASIC's are around $1000-1200 per oz. And we're at $850 per oz. It's a price goes up or no more PGMs kind of situation. I'm assuming we need at least $1200-1400 PGM prices for the miners to make a reasonable profit. By the time we get to those prices chances are AISC will be up and even higher prices will be necessary to keep operations profitable.

>>57596436
I think the 1st and 2nd quartile cash costs are still below the current prices, but yes PGMs have to go up eventually. I want exposure, also staying away fron South Africa.

>>57596436

I think Platinum is going to do insanely well in the coming years.
My interest in Platinum is the upcoming hydrogen bullshit, that the higher ups are going to be financing with very heavy hands. That stuff is basically a guarantee on their green agenda lists.
When that materializes, we're going to see Platinum demand go through the roof along with the prices.
It's still few years away though, even if their plans were to have Hydrogen up and running by 2025.
I want to buy some physical platty for that, but the prices can easily fall from here before they go up. It's clearly not in a hurry to move yet.

>>57596613
I'm not placing any hopes on hydrogen. PGMs are the long continued ICE use

>>57596636

You don't have to place any hope into it and it doesn't matter how pointless it is. It's happening regardless of our faith in it.
There's an absolute shitton of hydrogen infrastructure being constructed and planned all over the world and it's sucking funding from all of the green policies.
It's the same shit as solar and wind, no matter how pointless they are they're still happening and getting money from the governments to materialize.

>>57596610
I was looking at the South African operations, ASIC's are ranging from $970-1300 (probably higher for lower grade mines). The lowest AISC was $662 from a tailings retreatment facility SBSW owns. Hard to see how SA miners will turn a profit with these prices. Aren't they the lowest cost producers or is it the Russians?
>>57596613
>I think Platinum is going to do insanely well in the coming years.
Me too. Main reason is It's unprofitable to mine it, it does well in an inflationary environment and most people can't spell Platinum.

>>57596715
Platreef will be lowest cost once that comes online shortly. When looking at the cost curves I'm going off of pdf related but it's two years old. As you can see the very highest cost (4th quartile) is deep in the red as far as AISC goes. Granted, recent infrastructure issues in SA have probably raised costs for all producers there in the past year or two so maybe a more up to date cost curve would look higher in AISC across the board.
https://www.minxcon.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Platinum-cost-curves-April-2023-4.pdf?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse-lite_little-text-block

>>57596867
>Platreef will be lowest cost once that comes online shortly.
When is Platreef coming on? I was looking at the SA operations mainly because they're the largest producer.
>maybe a more up to date cost curve would look higher in AISC across the board.
For sure.

>>57596977
>When is Platreef coming on?
Sometime this year.
>SA
I usually don't mind risky jurisdictions but SA right now is just fucked. Infrastructure problems and increasingly hostile social landscape, and elections coming up this year. If the corrupt ruling party gets the boot who knows what kind of investment landscape the country turns to. Not that the current landscape is very inviting for investment given the severe issues with logistics and access to power.

>>57595801

>>57597009
>I usually don't mind risky jurisdictions but SA right now is just fucked
Don't get me wrong I'm not advocating investment there. Personally I'm speculating though the physical metals. We're probably hitting the cost curve right now (or close to it) for PGMs considering the inflation the last two years.

>>57597048
For the 4th quartile certainly, maybe some of the 3rd quartile mines are also in the red right now

>>57595706
-35% here

>>57596151
Not surprised
Half of Dominican Republic s GDP comes from the hard rock hotel in punta Cana

>>57597101
Yeah and that's the worse it can get IMO. Hard to imagine mines like Platreef being unprofitable. There seems to be a lot of speculative shorts on Palladium atm.

>>57595330
Posting here since last thread is ded.
Been away for awhile but shipping bro here.
-Product tankers (stng, trmd, hafni.ol) have been having great rates that will seem to be holding. Big impact with the suez, especially on LR2's
-drybulk having a strong q1 (usually weakest part of the year). Expect some rates to lower short term, but long term with a short orderbook, should be a strong sector (gnk, hshp, sblk)
-crude tankers, not as impacted by suez (expect suezmaxes) but strong rates nonetheless (dht, eco)
-containerships- not a long term option, oversupply will be rolling in an crushing rates, don't get trapped.
Also looks like capesizes (drybulk) or taking an increased share of bauxite transport, good sign for capesizes (not sure how it'll affect smaller vessels).

How many Natural Gas producers in North America are profitable at these prices?

>>57595533
I had a limit buy order filled @ $8.23 this morning before I saw SSRM was down more than 50%

>>57597426
at least one (XOM)

>>57598199
Yeah I bought some a few days ago took the haircut considering I didn't know the extent of the damages. The risk seems to be priced in, they have $500M in cash (and a $500M debt facility) and the mcap is $900M. but there could be a further sell off if there's fatalities, protests etc... On the other hand Turkey is a corrupt country and both Copler and Hod Maden are JV's with a Turkish mining company, there's a chance things move quicker than expected. Hard to say, really shitty situation to be in as a shareholder.

>>57597426

>>57598623
I bought more @ $4.60 and $3.90, doubling my position and bringing my average cost to $7.22/share. As tragic as the landslide is, I think the market overreacted.

>>57598852
>I bought more @ $4.60 and $3.90,
Can't say that's the wrong thing to do. I'll have to think about it myself and maybe see more info before buying back in. The insiders have such an advantage in this space especially in these kinds of situations it's not even funny.

>>57597166
100%. Has to go up eventually, maybe a year from now PGMs will already be up a lot.
>>57597169
Hello shippingbro! Nice to hear about tanker and dry bulk rates being up. Bodes well for continued demand for energy and raw materials
>>57598623
>>57598852
It's a good speculation to take but I wish there was more information about this whole ordeal. At worst this could cost billions I think, but maybe the market did overreact.

Steel and scrap were about even today, but the pressure is certainly bearish. I would like to find out where to get global steel prices so I can chart US HRC against them, that's on my list of things to do.

I'm also curious about how all the new electric arc furnace capacity that is coming online in the next few years will influence scrap availability. I have to believe that despite the US being a net exporter of scrap (7-8t/yr recently), that eventually the supply will get tighter. I also wonder how much this new capacity will increase the risk of oversupply issues.

>>57597169
Thanks for the update. If you hear anything about steel or steel scrap on ships let me know please. How is the LNG related shipping related things doing with the news of less new export terminals in America?

>>57600326
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel shows Chinese steel rebar price

How do I profit once I buy unimproved land? Do I start clear cutting some acreage and selling the wood? Should I strip mine and have the land prospected for Coal, and ores? Look into fracking?
See >>57600703

>>57595706
You should never give back that much money to the markets. Always set a hard stop regardless of fundamentals gurus. You know who doesn't lose 50% on a trade? Memeliners.

>>57600739
If you don't want to farm it solar is worth looking into for sure. But only if you local government provides subsidies. Some places they assume all the risk and just pay you passive income.

>>57600739
Sell your oil rights. If they find anything you'll be getting six digits passive for the rest of your life

>>57600739
depending on the location, you could develop unimproved land with partners into housing or private lots. Its pretty easy to find your regions mineral / geological information, unless your in specific regions your lands probably not going to be mineral rich.

Another thought, if the areas got lots of sand / gravel below surface, you could setup an aggregate business.

>>57600904
why reply to your own question? Could this be a legendary Exxon landman shill?

>massive rare earth deposits in wyoming
is this shit real, seems utterly unrealistic

>>57601823
what kind of REE deposits? Grade? Ionic clay-hosted or hard rock? Depth? Size?

>>57600762
someone please post the swingoid smoothbrain meme

>>57601944
he's not wrong in a bear market

>>57601948
Issue with that is when do you buy back in. I've actually sold stocks that I thought we're going to go down 20-30%, but then forgot to buy back (because the correction lasted for a month or two) in just to see them rally 150%. Fundamentals are what matter the most in the end.

>>57602831
>I've actually sold stocks that I thought we're going to go down 20-30%, but then forgot to buy back (because the correction lasted for a month or two) in just to see them rally 150%
Skill issue

>>57602853
Yeah, I guess I can't buy every bottom and sell every top like yourself. I bet you don't forget a thing either.

>>57602863
>I bet you don't forget a thing either.
It's called a limit order, friend. And even without them I watch the charts I'm interested in on a daily basis, using a sort of "watch list", you could call it.

Don't shit on TA because you're bad at it.

>>57602896
>It's called a limit order, friend.
Oh, so you know where the bottom is before it happens, and set limit orders thus even if you forget about the stock you've bought the bottom anyway. How do you do it?

>>57595706
But more IRV anon

>>57602918
>Oh, so you know where the bottom is before it happens
>>>>>what is predicting a support

>even if you forget about the stock
I don't forget about things I'm interested in because I'm not a hobbyist or part-time. I take notes, make lists and check things regularly especially if I intend to take a position in something. Literally a skill issue.

>How do you do it?
I'm know how to use memelines instead of shaking my fist at something I'm bad at and saying it's stupid.

Don't be so defensive dude, there's no shame in have a weakness and TA is clearly yours if you think Fundamentals are all that matters. Your FA may be phenominal in which case good on you, you can make a lot of money, but there's more than one way to skin a cat.
Besides, I never said I can perfectly time tops and bottoms so don't strawman me. Nobody can do that, but you seem to be trying or have tried while not having the focus to even remember what stocks you like lmao which is probably why you lose money as a swingoid instead of taking a realistic and practical approach to TA.

Good luck in your FA. It is completely viable, but not the only way. I agree it is far more important for individual stocks especially micro caps, but TA is still invaluable on the underlying resource and can very much be used to predict things that will completley overhwlem an individual company in the short to intermediate term, regardless of fundamentals.

>>57602831
I guess you just gotta keep an eye on your watchlist. Or set good till cancel limit bids

>>57602983
I use TA myself and I don't think FA is the only thing that matters, I made most of my money last year buying the major gold miners in Oct/Nov and selling in Jan (with TA). It's unreliable sometimes. As you said you can't time every bottom and top. Divergences between price and indicators don't always play out supports and resistances don't always hold. I don't forget things I'm interested in either, but when you're on a tight schedule things like that can happen (first time it's happened to me).
>>57603011
Yeah I have a long watchlist. The problem with GTC limit orders when using TA is that TA will show you that the price is likely to go down, but it doesn't tell you where it's likely to stop moving down and reverse at the same time. So your limit orders might get triggered, but the selloff isn't close from being over. It's just a very active thing you need to keep very close eye on things.

>>57603132
One way to think about the GTC limit orders is that you can decide what price you want to pay for the value you get. Ut doesn't have to be at the exact bottom, and it doesn't have to trigger either because then you wouldn't be getting the kind of deal you wanted. I don't do this myself but if I was a more patient man I would

>>57603181
No, I get what you mean. I was just speaking from a technical analyst perspective.

Any news on the Copler mine?

>>57603210
Apparently 4 mine employees including a supervisor have been detained, out of nine people who were arrested