/biz/ - Business & Finance

Capitulate. Go back to r/normalfaggot

>>57572256
Look at this failed normalfag trying to act like he isnt the normalfag. Sucks to be you, not autistic and thus cant comprehend my genius level IQ, but also too much of a loser to hang around actual normalfags, and thus is stuck in the middle being a complete fucking cunt of a baby bitch faggot.

>>57572240
Holy giga mega plebbitspacing.
>parabolic phase coming
Your post indicates this is the top and a new bear market is starting.

>>57572271
Are you fucking retarded cunt? The parabolic phase of a bull-run happens 9-14 months AFTER the halving, that will be either Q4 2024, or Q1 2025.

You're a fucking RETARDED NEWFAGGOT

>>57572240
we're you able to sell near the top last cycle?

how high do you think we'll go this time?
around what time do you think we'll top out?

>>57572287
I started buying Bitcoin in 2015 (3 years after I had first heard about it)

I sold at 15k in 2017 after telling myself Id sell at 10k and kept greedily holding. That went ok. That was the easiest quad-tripling of my stack I had ever done, and it was all without KYC. I had stopped caring about following crypto specifically in 2020/2021 so I didn't have any predictions then and do anything crypto related.

What got me back into it was when we dumped through the previous cycle ATH of 20k (first time in Bitcoins history to do that so I was alarmed which got me back into watching daily again)
What you want to do is take ETF accepted Bitcoin trading value at $45,000, this is when ETFs got accepted and this is where the institutional support will be in the next cycle.

Take a number that you get, that if you do -75%, will equal to around $45,000 - that gives you $180,000.

So my guesstimate for a top is $150,000 to $200,000 and a cycle bottom of $40,000 - $50,000 (taking into account wicks)

>>57572367
To note: Institutions investors like blackrock are still in profit even if we hit $40,000 - $50,000

Their orders were likely done under $40,000 on mass

So their funds will still be in profit at the next bottom, the market price is what we're talking about here, but they didnt pay market, they pay OTC and discounted for large volumes.

So if Bitcoin goes back down to $45,000 in 2026 for a cycle bottom, Blackrock will likely still be 10-15%+ in profit and that equals to +5% to +7.5% return for them in the 2 years for their purchase which is fine for cycle bottom of the asset.

>>57572240
I read your post aloud to my wife and she laughed so hard she sharted. Thanks for the memory we will share. Also you are wrong, lmao.

>>57572240
So in other words you're telling us we should sell most of our crypto now and re-buy when BTC is somewhere under 10k? Okay. Seems like a good idea.

>>57572559
Retard didnt read my posts.

>>57572279
>The parabolic phase of a bull-run happens 9-14 months AFTER the halving, that will be either Q4 2024, or Q1 2025.
Have you forgotten when the halving is? 9 months after halving would be Q1 2025.. the market will peak in mid-late 2025 if everything happens in accordance with previous cycles

>>57572564
Everything about your post tells us "SELL". The overall style of your post, its formatting and the words you use, as well as your desperation and anger; all of it says loudly and clearly: SELL.

>>57572559
>So in other words you're telling us we should sell most of our crypto now and re-buy when BTC is somewhere under 10k?
You don't have any crypto you sidelined bobo faggot. Get fucked

>>57572611
Its not going to be a slow ride up like we have had for the last 12 months.


Jan 2017 was 1k

It slowly moved up from 1k to 10k from January to November.

Then in the final month of the year it went from 10k to 20k.

That was the parabolic phase, the month of December.

This will happen again in similar fashion

>>57572240
>plebbiting this hard
>>57572279
>gets called out, immediately resorts to muh halving cope
kek like clockwork
>>57572367
>uses muh ETF cope
>>57572399
>uses muh institutions cope
like absolute clockwork

>>57572240
Bull signals were clear around March 2023. Bitcoin still has a lot to go but I agree in that it'll be sudden pump, then slow growth till dump as usual. I'll try to focus more on alt season this cycle. Any opinions on what the hype tech will be this time?

>>57572740
Proof of Work ASIC resistant mineable alt-coins with features IoT features, AI features, NFT features, etc - these will be the altcoin big pumpers for the alt-coin season when it comes to actual altcoins

So far as shitcoins any of them

I was up 24.3% ytd in 2023

>>57572240
It doesn't matter when the parabolic phase hits, just don't be a greedy retard and don't fall for the euphoria. It will be at most a month or two. Be flexible with your target prices too. You don't want to end up bagholding just because you were a couple dollars off from your goal.

>>57572762
>AI features
>NFT features

>>57572240
>>57572367
>>57572399
>>57572640
Very

good

posts.

Yes,

I agree

with

you.

Now that

institutions are

in and we

have the ETF

and

halving

things

are going

to get insane!

Why would bitcoin double or triple in value for no reason.

No seriously, in 2021 they pumped crazy liquidity into the system, which explains the price rise. Why is price going to rise like that again? No reason in particular, just cause?

>>57573038
>just cause?
Yep. That's exactly how market insanity works in this clown market. You need to be of legal age to post on this site.

>>57573102
>condescending
>literally saying markets move for no reason
yeah i think previous posters are right--you need to go back

>>57572240
>>57572640
>that double spacing

>>57573038
ahhh I see we're in the "where will all the magical buy pressure come from huh???!?" part of the market

comfy Disbelief

>>57573129
>markets move up and down for literally no reason
think about what you're saying. LITERALLY no reason? you unironically believe it's all voodoo? that is a "part of the market" indeed. it's called a top

>>57572240
It's called the tech sector comes out with new shit for Christmas and the gains are not realized by dipshits till a few months later. Shit is gonna be slow for a few months and all of you are gonna lose everything you gained.

>>57572240
>>57572240
>>57572279
>>57572367
>>57572399

OP is right Plebbit spacing or not. He is going to make money and the rest of you are going to hold while it crashes as he said waiting for the next pump. The halving is being front run this time with just enough gains after to capture retail who are thinking just as the rest of the retards here.

The effects of the reduce sell side pressure from the halving takes longer and longer for it to manifest into bullish effects after each halving since its fewer and fewer BTC being removed from the sell side.

>>57573141
>think about what you're saying. LITERALLY no reason
that's what (You) are saying anon. I never said that

>>57573180
Okay then please answer the original question. I will reiterate it for you: What forces are going to cause bitcoin to double or triple in value?

>>57573185
>What forces are going to cause bitcoin to double or triple in value?
what forces are causing stocks reaching ATH as we speak?

>>57573185
>Okay then please answer the original question. I will reiterate it for you: What forces are going to cause bitcoin to double or triple in value?

Blackrock and friends deciding to mark it up. It doesn't "need" a reason although a narrative will certainly be made for sub 100 IQ NPCs as yourself so it feels right to you. Lmao

>>57573195
Credit impulse and MMs buying back their hedges as the put options they've sold decay, as well as a narrative that a "soft landing" is developing. I understand you're trying to say this should apply to bitcoin, but the point is that it already has. That's why price is above 45k right now. You are incorrectly extrapolating the recent past into the future. I'm asking how do you know that the future will look like the immediate past?

>>57573201
>Blackrock and friends deciding to mark it up
woowoo conspiracy theory shit with no evidence. pure narrative
>It doesn't "need" a reason
It literally does. In the actual causal universe effects are preceded by causes.

>>57573225
>woowoo conspiracy theory shit with no evidence. pure narrative

I gave you a perfectly good reason. Its not conspiracy in the slightest. Its speculation and well reasoned at that. Institutions are getting into the space. Something like 1% of their holdings is expected to enter. Liquidity drives markets I.E. THEY drive markets. When they are ready they will begin the "mark up" phase and then let retail run with it.

They buy with the intention to sell later at a profit. Lmao

They will definitely give you a reason when their shit all over your head though so you feel better and don't blame them.

Whether it be another pandemic scare, limited wars, or cyber panic etc. This has all been written about and softly disclosed by various think tanks and organizations.

You sound like a smart guy in your field of expertise I bet but you aren't able to read between the lines mostly because it sounds like you don't believe anything is there.

>>57573262
Well if you believe there's a group of people who are able to control price of everything that much, and that you somehow know their intentions, then I guess you can't be wrong.

>>57573225
>I'm asking how do you know that the future will look like the immediate past?
what counts as "immediate past"? because BTC is here since 2008 and the same exact cycle rotates since then. the halving is in 2 months

you are the one saying "this time is different", not me kek

>>57573313
I'm asking what forces will cause bitcoin's price to double and so far you haven't given an answer. Seems like you're avoiding simply saying "because that's what it's done in the past". It's a good time to remind you that past performance is not indicative of future results. You should be aware that bitcoin's upvol has been declining since inception--its returns are becoming more gold-like as time goes by. You're assuming an amount of right-tail vol which is in denial of this fact, assuming there's any liquidity left to send it higher in the first place.

Anyway, I would like to reiterate that I'm still waiting for you to explicitly answer what forces you believe are actually going to drive the price further up from here. It should not be this difficult to answer this question if you are a bull.

>>57573289

Great I'm glad you agree.

>>57573341
what forces caused bitcoin to double from 15K to 30K? and now from 30K to 48K? and do you think this stops at 48K?

i don't have the ID of every single buyer in the current 20 billion 24 hours BTC volume if that's what you're asking, but if you go by on-chain metrics it's vast majority long term top wallets/whales/institutions while retail is still not even here. that's a simple fact and my thesis is even more simple, market conditions will only get better in the next 12-18 months where even retail will eventually also get in so top wallets can finally have their exit liquidity

>>57572367
200k top? What if it just keeps gong up?

>>57573390
>what forces caused bitcoin to double from 15K to 30K? and now from 30K to 48K? and do you think this stops at 48K?
S-curve adoption. Even all the boomers know about it now, so that tailwind is completely tapped out.

>market conditions will only get better in the next 12-18 months
My view is the opposite. The aforementioned credit impulse is already long gone. There's just a lag effect before it starts impacting financial assets. Bitcoin tends to top 4-8 weeks before the stock market. A big dump in the stock market next will tell you that both have already hit their top.

>>57573175
>>57573201
>>57573262
>>57573368
You are OP. You changed IP.

>>57573444
Checked. Yeah looks like he did. OP just mysteriously disappeared from the thread and then a while later (after his router had time to reconnect and give him a new IP) a "new" anon, OxLMf4Rd, appeared to defend OP and mysteriously just so happens to use the exact same writing style.

>>57573444
No friend just another fellow autist

>>57573442
BTC went from 15K to 48K because of adoption? lmao

at 15K there was nothing but ANTI btc adoption, the fucking European Central Bank released an entire article about how BTC is dead at the literal pico bottom. every mass media headline was screaming how crypto is dead and yet it doubled in price. and only way after that was the ETF approved. yes boomers are surface-level aware of it, but it's still just fake internet chuck e cheese coins in their brains, not something at full adoption

>>57573477
Boomers aren't coming in until their financial advisors tell them to. They won't do it on their own. So it's unlikely we're getting much of their money into the ETFs. But Gen X normies will probably start asking to buy into those ETFs when the price hits 100k.

>>57573477
>BTC went from 15K to 48K because of adoption? lmao
Sorry I just realized that you probably meant since the 2022 low. S-curve adoption is responsible for the 2021 bubble peak.

The rise from the 2022 low is because of credit conditions improving like I already said as well as overly bearish sentiment. In general it's been "risk on" in financial assets which is what usually happens from extreme sentiment lows and credit turning. I'm telling you now it's the opposite situation. You still haven't really given a reason other than that you are extrapolating the recent past (ie, the rise from the 2022 low) into the future, which is typical top mentality.

>>57573496
retail and mass media in general doesn't give a shit about crypto until BTC reaches a new ATH at the very least

>>57573038
>>57573108
>>57573141
It's the same money that flowed in to pump it in 2021, then flowed out. It's just flowing back in again, plus whatever new money is floating around and gets attracted by the hype. It's really that simple.

>>57573549
>It's the same money that flowed in to pump it in 2021
that money is literally gone. the US is currently experiencing its first contraction in the money supply in decades

>>57572240
Go back but also no shit we've been in the Golden Bull run since 16k

>>57573509
you think the market will be in a worse condition in the next 12-18 months, I think it will be in a better condition. on-chain metrics show long term top wallets still buying while shrimps are sidelined or not even here. it's that simple

>>57573466
>muh exact same writing style
Go outside.

>>57573608
Would have been easier if you simply answered my original question with "because smart money is buying", which I can neither confirm or deny, but okay.

>>57573583
>pump $7000B
>contract by $1000B
>the money supply is contracting!!! there's no new money to buy anything ever!!!
Kek okay nigger
Also if you look closely, it's starting to uptrend again. Soft landing means an excuse to turn the printers back on.

>>57573640
>>pump $7000B
>>contract by $1000B
>>the money supply is contracting!!! there's no new money to buy anything ever!!!
There is money, but much of the remaining 6 trillion is going to service much higher ineterest payments as well.

I can appreciate that you're saying demand is basically going to return, but again, WHY is it going to return? This risk-on cycle is already long in the tooth. You think these moves in semis are sustainable in the immediate term?

>Soft landing means an excuse to turn the printers back on.
An excuse to do something is a farcry from actually doing it. I will believe it when it happens. If anything, inflation has also been trending up along with the money supply, which is an excuse to keep the printers off.

>>57573622

Its funny because I know hes wrong that being said I usually jump to assuming everyone is a glownigger shill so I understand the sentiment.

>>57573175

And to differ from OPs thesis somewhat I think we will pump hard prior to the halving, then have a massive leg down relatively shortly after the halving, and then resume again pumping sometime in mid 2025 with a final blow off early 2026

I think BTC is following the ECM well.

>>57573670
>I can appreciate that you're saying demand is basically going to return, but again, WHY is it going to return? This risk-on cycle is already long in the tooth. You think these moves in semis are sustainable in the immediate term?
Market cycles are empirical fact, liquidity moves like an oscillator. I can't solve the problem of induction for you, so I can't give a purely deductive reason for why the cycles exist and will likely continue. Suffice to say that the broader amount of liquidity from the 2021 peak has not returned to the fray yet.
>An excuse to do something is a farcry from actually doing it. I will believe it when it happens. If anything, inflation has also been trending up along with the money supply, which is an excuse to keep the printers off.
They already have to print in order to cover the budget deficit. This has not changed for years and will not change in the future unless the government is radically restructured.

>>57573623
>which I can neither confirm or deny
get something like a glassnode account. on-chain isn't voodoo astrology, it's factual information

>>57573779
>Market cycles are empirical fact, liquidity moves like an oscillator.
Yes, and you are presuming we are at one point in the cycle and I am presuming we are at another. This is not advancing the conversation.
>Suffice to say that the broader amount of liquidity from the 2021 peak has not returned to the fray yet.
It is not suffice to say as no evidence for that has yet been presented.
>They already have to print in order to cover the budget deficit.
I agree, but this is known and has been known for years at least. This cannot serve as a reason for price to advance in the immediate future when it's already known by all market participants.

>>57573958
>Yes, and you are presuming we are at one point in the cycle and I am presuming we are at another. This is not advancing the conversation.
It actually is advancing the conversation because you did not make it clear before that you understand market cycles.
>It is not suffice to say as no evidence for that has yet been presented
The evidence is the on-chain metrics. Whales are accumulating and small holders are not, meaning retail is not in the game yet, meaning there is still new liquidity available. This contradicts your supposition that we are at the peak of the market cycle. QED. Sorry you lost the argument.
>I agree, but this is known and has been known for years at least. This cannot serve as a reason for price to advance in the immediate future when it's already known by all market participants.
(1) It's NOT known by all market participants, because they aren't all paying attention. (2) Knowledge is not always acted upon immediately or the effects of it are not detectable until later due to systemic lags.

>>57574188
>The evidence is the on-chain metrics. Whales are accumulating and small holders are not, meaning retail is not in the game yet, meaning there is still new liquidity available.
What you're saying amounts to the existence of an infallible indicator. Is that really what you want to hang your hat on? "Just trade in accordance with the on-chain metrics and you can never lose." This reminds me of when people said "it's the interest rate differentials, stupid" at the peak of the $DXY, as if all you needed was one piece of data to tell you whether to buy or sell. Far more sensational in your post is the idea that we can all get rich simply be trading the on-chain metrics. For what it's worth, small specs in bitcoin futures are longer than they've been since early 2022, which directly contradicts your supposition that retail is not in the game yet.

>(1) It's NOT known by all market participants, because they aren't all paying attention. (2) Knowledge is not always acted upon immediately or the effects of it are not detectable until later due to systemic lags.
This was quite honestly just a whole lot of nonsense. Systemic lag for trader knowledge? What are you even talking? Of course knowledge is acted upon immediately. They go to absurd lengths to be the first person to execute the order on news events. They pay for offices as close to the data as possible to get the information microseconds faster. Your claims are absurd.

btc will peak between 500k-1m

>>57574265
a huge amount of retail holders don't care about market knowledge, only about numba up

>>57573175
>>57573201
>>57573262
>>57573368
>>57573467
>>57573692
>>57573721
You are OP. You're not fooling anyone. After you began posting, OP never returned. You changed your IP and can't get back to the IP you were using as OP, hence you can never post as OP again.

>>57574501

I'm not OP. I think he is close to the truth but even posted how I think he is incorrect here.

>>57573721

He is right though that we have been basically bull market since late 2022

>>57574265
>What you're saying amounts to the existence of an infallible indicator. Is that really what you want to hang your hat on? "Just trade in accordance with the on-chain metrics and you can never lose." This reminds me of when people said "it's the interest rate differentials, stupid" at the peak of the $DXY, as if all you needed was one piece of data to tell you whether to buy or sell.
Strawman.
>Far more sensational in your post is the idea that we can all get rich simply be trading the on-chain metrics. For what it's worth, small specs in bitcoin futures are longer than they've been since early 2022, which directly contradicts your supposition that retail is not in the game yet.
Irrelevant/nonsequitur.
>This was quite honestly just a whole lot of nonsense.
Ad hominem.
>Systemic lag for trader knowledge? What are you even talking? Of course knowledge is acted upon immediately.
Absurdity.
>They go to absurd lengths to be the first person to execute the order on news events. They pay for offices as close to the data as possible to get the information microseconds faster. Your claims are absurd.
Entertaining cope post though.

Everyone called this faggot out on being from plebbit. He sure was trying too hard to fit in.

>>57572270
>fucking cunt
>>57572279
>fucking cunt
Picrel is him just 3 hours earlier. "fucking cunt" is not very often used on /biz/ (compared to other things). 100% the same anon. Yep, sure is a plebbitor. You were all correct in calling him out.

>>57574649
And when was "fucking cunt" used prior to the post 3 hours ago? Feb 3rd. So yeah, obviously the same anon as the 2 "fucking cunt" posts in this thread and the 1 in the other thread are only 3 hours apart.

>>57574543
midwit AND sperg is a tough combination. i feel for ya

note that this is not an ad hominem, it's an insult. learn the difference.

>>57574525
>I'm not OP.
"Prove" you're not OP then, by posting as OP. Oh wait you can't, because you're on a different IP address now than when you made the thread. So you can't use the OP ID again. OP will (therefore) never post in this thread again.

>>57574768
>"Prove" you're not OP then, by posting as OP.

Wouldn't that just prove that I would be OP? Lmao

Why are you all so ass hurt about his thread? He is right mostly. Are you all fucking sidelined?

I mean what do you want me to say? I believe in Lord Jesus Christ of Nazareth and accept him into my heart to be One with the Heavenly Father, and imbued with the Holy Spirit. As God as my witness I didn't make this thread.

You people are unhinged.

>>57574691
Kek. Seethe.

>>57574928
strawman

>>57575081
Kek keep chimping nigger. Sneed.

>>57572240
i'm here shilling in superverse, you retards can keep arguing about BTC even tho you guys still have BTC in your wallets
just enjoy the ride

>>57572240
Mania will be in 2025, the normies are still not paying attention yet. I do think 100k by the end of this year is possible, but I think reaching ATH again could also trigger normie fomo.

50k will be the bottom of the next bear market though.

>>57572640
In Jan 2016 it was $400, are you saying it's going to be $100k Jan 2025?

>>57573583
fucking ngmi
>WHY is it going to return?
YOU MORONS LOOKING FOR A REASON ARE NEVER GONNA MAKE IT

WHY?

IT JUST IS OKAY?
BECAUSE THERE IS MONEY TO BE MADE

LEARN IT TRADE IT AND STFU
>>57573129
THIS^

>>57576742

I am here to make money, and figured we were in the early stages

The constant bizraeli back and forth on this is confirming my suspicions, and I am looking forward to raking in profits between EOY 24 and summer 25

It will be mostly centralized shitty garbage tech too, probably AI, DePIN and similar hype jobs this time around

Stay blessed, fellow angry faggot

>>57573390
>market conditions will only get better in the next 12-18 months

>>57572240
Recovery isn't Bull
M2

>>57573444
Im back, and no I didn't. I am not whoever that guy is saying im right, but I am right anyway, so gg

>>57572279
newfags always trying to sound smart, forgetting they're just starting. I've been in the space for 5 years, using Tap Fintech to seamlessly send, receive, and manage my fiat and cryptos since 2019.

I know what will happen, but saying it aloud means it will happen to a lesser degree
I won’t contribute to the misinformation that is in my interests, but I won’t help debunk that misinformation either

T. Knower

>>57579499
So fuck off then. Your post doesn’t bring any value to the discussion.