/biz/ - Business & Finance

yield curve inversion vs S&P 500

Yeah so calendar year 24 is your last bet. Sell the Santa Rally or be forever butthurt and memed on.

>>57536880

Fed interest Rates vs S&P 500

>>57536880
no recession until republicans win. no exceptions. simple as

>>57536910
right, well according to all these charts, if they cut rates in spring, then we would get a terrible recession shortly after the election.

>>57536928
Yes, exactly.

>>57536910
They won't run the mail in vote scam this election so they can shift the blame on Trump obviously. Jpow knows trump is gonna can him, why not blame the economic crash on him?

>>57536880
Nvidia $1000 end of week
stay mad

BTC vs S&P

>Bitcoin tops signal stock market tops since 2018

Bitcoin will top around summer this year, and then both markets will begin to crash

>They will blame Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs

>>57536968
i hope you have your life savings invested in NVIDIA

also im not going short until next month

Reminder that the people who vote are also in control of the stock market.

>>57536880
How does one buy during a recession?

>>57537455
my plan is to DCA into TQQQ over a multi year period

Good thread OP. Yes we're at the foot of a recession. The nass layoffs are another piece of evidence that it's started.
I'm not convinced about how BTC will behave though >>57536980. We haven't yet seen BTC in a "real" recession yet, and the graph in that post doesn't show much correlation to SPY. Remember, part of BTC's value proposition is that it's an alternative financial system, so when our current one is collapsing people might flock to BTC and it will moon instantly.

The other thing I want to point out is AI. As the layoffs continue companies will try various cost-cutting measures to stay afloat, including implementing AI. AI-adoption will accelarate massively, in other words. This will permanently displace a lot of workers so some people are going to get rekt more than others. Long AI at the bottom of the recession.

>>57537506
>it's an alternative financial system, so when our current one is collapsing people might flock to BTC

with what money?

you forget that everyone is in debt and has bills to pay, will be getting margin called etc.

and the people that do have money will be buying their assets when they go underwater

if anything it will be a good opportunity to get some bitcoin around $10-20k again

I've been slurping cheapies of silver every month.

damn i was hoping someone else had some serious recession signals

anything besides blame it on trump?

>>57537790
They’ve been doing QE. Buying bad assets, giving money to illegals, all those tens of billions in war funding bills, Just look at the deficit spending, That’s QE. Everyone looks at interest rates and (((inflation numbers))) while the other hand is doing the exact opposite of what they are telling you they are doing. Inflations is not down when rent costs people half or more of their income.
>>57537566
As far as why silver is still cheap is half of it goes to industry, When that tanks, it’s going lower. Crypto is the new silver. Youtube personalities are talking about the flock to Crypto. They will be fucking rugged so hard, they won’t have any money to buy silver.

What would you guys be buying during a recession?

has anyone net-sold YTD?

>>57537506
>Long AI at the bottom of the recession
AI isn't real. It's a big word association game that outputs garbled slop half the time. The recession wipes away the exuberant fantasies that LLMs are going to bring us a productivity utopia and AGI. People only think LLMs will lead to huge changes because stock line is going up. When stock line goes down that all goes away.

Buy real things at the bottom of the recession. Real estate, commodities, energy companies, utilities

>>57537790
I'm too lazy to post charts right now but what about defaults on credit card loans, auto loans (especially subprime), mortgages? They're all exceptionally high. RE turnover is also exceptionally low.

>>57537939
Net sold, no. Deleveraged, yes. I monitor my allocation as a percent of funds. While I take in a paycheck, allocating a percent of that paycheck that's less than the previous allocation will lower the total allocation percent. Not only that, I'm still allocating towards crypto, mostly because in the off chance that we don't see a big 25%+ correction anytime soon, I don't want to miss on these prices, knowing long term we're going up.

Thank you for finally posting a quality on-topic thread. What's with the reddit spacing, are you new here?

>>57538089
>reddit spacing

ive been here since it was only reddit cat posters

>>57537504
So you just plan on having a bunch of spare money in a recession?

>finally save up enough and making good enough salary to afford a home
>Just in time to buy and get underwater in the coming recession
Either that, or I wait and potentially get further priced out. I feel like I'm fucked either way.

>>57538366
Yes I’m positioning short to have extra cash too

Time will tell if mumu blows out my asshole

>>57536928
This is why I disagree with all the "they'll assassinate Trump before they let him touch office!" people. They'll just let him take over as great depression 2.0 kicks off and go
>'SEEEE?!?! TOLD U BLUMPF WAS DA DEVIL!"

>>57538434
Rgr. It might work. Good luck. And good on you for having a plan.

>>57537921
This is true, people have already forgotten about last years bank failures. The fed even removed "the banking system is resilient" in their recent press release. The fact that banks can sell their junk bonds to the fed at par value is crazy, rules only exist for them to bend to their will. I have no doubt they will pull the lever to tank the economy when they see fit.

>>57536880
You've got the causality wrong

The Fed cuts because the economy is in recession

>>57536910
so then no recession ever

>>57536880
>gdi is negative yoy (100% correlation with recession)
>unemployment rate crossed above its 24 month moving average (100% correlation with recession)
>inverted yield curve about to uninvert (90+% correlation with recession)
>but muh election year! (four of the last five recessions going all the way back to 1980 happened in election years, including one with a democrat president running for reelection)
>income tax collected by the government is down because people are simply making less money (100% correlation with recession)
>google searches for “soft landing” spiking (100% correlation with recession for as long as google has existed)
I could go on, but what’s the point. anyone who hasn’t yet figured out we’re heading for a recession very soon isn’t going to figure it out until it’s too late for them to do anything about it.

It's coming. It's bad.

theyre going to wait until ater the election to uninvert and dump on everyone

>>57537506
This started in 2020, but it seems to be amplifying because of merchant guild fuckery. The racket does this intentionally of course.

I like how no one noticed that viral marketed business to business service economies are MLM schemes and then they wonder why the economy never improves.

>>57537506
>>57538089
>>57539817
To what extent can the argument be made that the "recession" already happened, last year, and the worst of it has already passed and we're riding out the storm? Idk, I've been hearing about "incoming recessions" for years, bolstered by bad figures, but then nothing ever happens. I think that we finally managed to divorce the economy from anything "real" after 2009.

The Fed cuts rates BECAUSE a recession is occuring, not 'a recession occurs because the Fed cuts rates' like you imply

>>57541576
no large spike in unemployment, for one thing, means it can’t have happened yet.

>>57541671
Wrong. These rate cuts are made rather arbitrarily at the beckoning of financial lobbies that make big dough when it happens.
The idea they do things simply for macroeconomic reasons are complete nonsense. What they really do is strategically corner specific financial institutions as the "sacrifice" to which they charge the rate in order to make big bank from.

The GFC in particular had this form of behaviour amongst US big banks.
From memory Lehman got caught in a trap that other firms clearly laid out and then charged the rate adverse to their needs after auditing (although to be frank, they were fucking dumb for just assuming pools of assets were "good to go").

>>57541918
>no large spike in unemployment, for one thing, means it can’t have happened yet.
No visible spike.
But that's misleading. There were many more bordering homeless unemployed or underemployed or "not paid enough to cover their liabilities" employed over the past decade and the stats just simply deny it. They haven't been construed for accurate reporting at all, in fact it's arguably they're being gerrymandered for political and financial gain. You see, these things could cause those "too big to fail" to have problems with their assets and how they are priced. Yadda yadda, toxic asset pools, yadda yadda. This is how these things manifest - when data collection on such things are manipulated for pure accounting reasons.

Don't say they don't do this, they definitely do because they think people will starve if they don't - ironic right?

Imagine thinking these banks play fair after the GFC proved that ponzi schemes are "more common than people think" in this industry.
It's not like one bank would plan a scheme through a proxy and then operate to target specific competitors or something.

>>57542076
>those Chinese banks are now considered important

Daaaaaaaamn.
I wonder why.

Although I heard they were in a hairy position, but for their country's effectiveness in denying such "lies" despite them exchanging securities with banks that most likely fell.

>>57536880
>>57539817
>>57541576
>>57541918
>>57542036
>>57538439
>>57538089
>>57537921
>>57537506
>>57536892

MMT?

What could happen that's worse than what has
already happened...the virus shut down the global economy and yet here we are at all time
highs.
THERE'S SOMETHING COMFY ABOUT DOOMER PREDICTIONS.
LIKE SITTING AROUND A CAMP FIRE WITH A HEAVY BLANKET OVER YOUR SHOULDERS, SIPPING ON SOME HOT CHOCOLATE. LISTENING AND TELLING GHOST STORIES
Amongst FRENS.

buyer beware

>>57542002
No offence but can you take the dick out of your mouth and explain this again? This explanation is quite unclear

>>57542100
The Chinese lie all the time. They shouldn't be included in any open market. Nixon fucked up. Clinton doubled down. Now we're all screwed. The Chinese even screw over their own people. It didn't make much news but not too long ago one of their major banks just, shut down. No big deal. Just closed their doors. Chinese from all over had invested in this particular bank because of good rates. So they all try to log into their accounts one day and nothing. Pick up the phone and nothing. Some of them were picketing outside of the bank at one point but then I didn't hear anything else. They're probably all dead.

>>57542717
Chinese who protest get shut down by police all the time. Those who continue to complain get disappeared. China is just a bigger North Korea

>>57542717
It's not just them. From memory Japan and the Four Asian Tigers did the same shit in the 20th century, only for it to explode in their face in the 90s. It was something to do with monetary policy manipulation from memory that allowed their exports to be super cheap and suck the competitiveness out of American products.

But financial conglomerates, particularly of the globalist kinda, proceeded to agree to this economic situation possibly for their own personal interests at the expense of the rest of the US economy.
Things like the think tank began to manipulate interests economically globally, even in Japan. Admin systems became far more manipulative than they'd ever been before.

chart composed of 10 indicators which has predicted every recession says a recession is coming and you chuds are arguing the worst is behind us.

>>57542513
>banks acquire dodgy asset pools
>feed them to Lehman and co
>corroborate and get the rates to go adverse to their pool of money time and time again
>hedge on their failure and win
>gain 1 less corp in the "too big to fail" financial rat race

Nothing personal, kiddo.

>>57536906
I made this chart a couple months ago

>>57543234
>corroborate and get the rates to go adverse to their pool of money time and time again
This part, what are you saying? Are you saying banks convince the fed to raise rates to induce Lehman's failure due to these shit assets? We were talking about rates being lowered as part of this plan but I don't see how

Recession is over, dumbfuck, you missed it, we've been in a real terms recession for years, now we pump

>>57538382
Same here. Im considering just going all in on MSTR (no BTC ETF here in EU) and hope to 2x my money, if not then I kms.

>>57539817
Yeah but what if BTC goes first to 100k and you are sitting on cash like a retard?

bullish for btc

>>57541918
False. Recessions are mechanical like halvings, it already happened, you missed the bottom (again)

>>57543097
If it's a minor recession?
Like that thin gray line between 2017 and 2020

>>57543430
It's a strange thing to look at charts, then to look around me. For instance, statistics say my town is 2% Hispanic population. That is a HUGE fucking lie. We've been drowning in immigrants since Trump left office. So it's not like the census hasn't had time to catch up with that. But if you look at a chart, and listen to the news, you wouldn't think my state had a problem with immigration at all.

I look around. I see a lot of people losing their jobs. The only people I'm not seeing get laid off in huge numbers are retail wagies. Walmart jobs seem relatively safe. The local university, on the other hand, is firing left and right. Local hospital is letting people go, too, and doing things like hiring traveling nurses or hiring more part-time janitorial staff, outright laying off IT staff, and importing more doctors from the Middle East. But I look at the employment charts and the charts tell me I'm crazy. Is it, perhaps, just a local thing? Just something special happening in my little town? Across multiple industries? We have boomers left and right picking up side gigs to compensate for inflation, which of course is overcrowding the side gig market and making things more difficult for younger workers trying to get an extra buck.

>>57543317
>>57543430
DCA into the market stays winning.

>>57543309
From memory, it was the rising rates that started the mess and made their mortgage repayments nulled. Then it was the lowering rates that devalued the mortgage pools and sealed the deal.

But they definitely got fucked by Goldman Sachs in particular from memory with how they were trying to transfer such pools to Lehman. There was a whole lot of fuckery with the mislabeling of pooled assets by various institutions which they sold overvalued to Lehman and several smaller firms. This lead to a drastic change in the Basel accord from memory, a change that did fuck all because I'll bet they lobbied for fuck all change. It's too much profit when you take pools of assets, overvalue them, misrepresent them, sell them overvalued, pull strings in the US gov to raise rates to make their solvency and the solvency of the mortgage pool owner collapse, then lower the rates to render the assets lower in value while beginning to make bets on the inevitable collapse of the target.

They've done this many times now. Selling "safe investments" then using legalities to get away with murder and profit from it.
Oh and I have always wondered what that "return-ship" business was for. Clearly they didn't want eyes on their data for too long at some level for "reasons".
Anyway, that corp has been going against the grain suspiciously since the well before the GFC.

>>57543568
If I were a financial institution, I wouldn't go near anything Goldman put their grubby hands on. They deliberately make "asset bombs" nowadays.

>>57543585
Or maybe they really are this retarded.

>we're only human!
>we swear!

Could be pretending to be retarded too.
Or maybe this firm had no particular assets that could fit under any of their mislabeled categories because it was simply "that fucked up", but going in with the intention of making another bomb.

>>57543541
Confirmation Bias maybe

Then again maybe not

Covid's over so who needs nurses or IT staff or
full time jannies?
local university may be losing students to other learning institutions or maybe Bill Ackman pulled money from your local Uni.

>>57543652
Or maybe some skitzo jews running financial organisations have become paranoid of a white majority in the states they work in, while they heist the economy and the competition, snuffing them out.
I don't see why they would intentionally sabotage other financial firms like this otherwise.

And it's not like they've tried to heavily promote their ex employees into government to seal the deal. And it's not like they're trying to shift out the remaining white non-jews in their firm by replacing them with gullible pajeets who are less likely to care about such things.
>woops apparently they decided to tell their friends and immediately this tipped off other indians and eventually white people too who couldn't fucking understand why this shit was happening and why the people in this firm were acting super super sus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raj_Rajaratnam,_Galleon_Group,_Anil_Kumar,_and_Rajat_Gupta_insider_trading_cases


Oh but there's no Jewish conspiracy going on at Goldman Sachs.
That's anti-Semitic. Very anti-semitic to suggest that a racket of jews are going insane from stress in running such a powerful firm and have basically become a genocidal machine that is seeking on destroying competitors to leverage themselves and make sure they cement their "too big to fail"-ness in order to control competition and the US/west for "anti anti-semitic purposes".

Nothing made me more jaded about finance than years of researching this crap and seeing this happen time and time again with largely jewish lead firms.

>>57543776
Oh and Israel hasn't been mindfucking Goldman Sachs into it's bitch for decades through clever psyops. No it would never do that.

And it's not like there's the potential for Goldman to be some other Jewish mafia related thing. That would never happen. Mafia subverting professional organisations? Never! It's not like they've had issues since the mid to late 20th century with shit, right? Or acted suspiciously at all?

See what I mean, this firm has so many potentials for "ticking the /pol/ box" and it's just so funny they keep getting away with EVERYTHING that their government and judiciary puppets allow. The other banks severely underestimated the fuckers.

Alarmed by the amount of antisemitism ITT

Oh and it's not like Israel's loss or expected loss of the suez in the 70s initiated a new strategy to acquire capital and monetary pull globally, choosing Goldman Sachs as a target "too obvious that it would be anti-semitic to question things" given the obvious name of the target.

What I'm trying to say is, Israel has been causing global recessions to it's benefit for decades now.

>>57543944
fkns yids bro

>>57543944
Well funnily enough, Goldman was decent until Israel fucked with them.
Jews in the firm are merely their pawns and I suspect they do similar to Epstein shit with them.
It wouldn't surprise me. No firm would do this shit otherwise if purely in a financial sense, the blowback is not worth it and soon Goldman Sachs will suffer eventually as the devil in the details eats it's own details. But Israel's really prepared for that sacrifice. It's not about making Goldman a good banking firm. It's about exploiting it as a major economic heist for their national strategy.

I bet Jews in the US think Israel is their friend, that's how far this psyop goes.
But they are sacrifices to Israel, who couldn't give a shit about them.

Anyhow, the recent gaza shit is likely part of an effort to reassess property markets globally for another scheme, likely for Goldman's benefit, by causing localised chaos around said properties involved while using fog in the details to cover up it's of misrepresented asset scheme. Israel wants leverage and this is how they force it.

>>57543430
Can you see that the latest part of the chart is at the foot of another uptick though?

Oh and let's not forget 1971 and why that was an important year. >>57536984

I think the 60s spooked the fuck out of Israel. They saw a popular movement that potentially could wipe out all of their gains and plans. So they decided to actively fuck with education systems through the financial leverage they got.

It doesn't help that the arabs saw this crap being financed by the west and exacerbated the downfall of it through petroleum protocols, thinking it would stop the flow of money and war inventory from the US that the take over of such financial firms precipitated.
You see, the US was half antagonistic to Israel even in the 60s. Israel was initially soviet helped for a while.
The financial leverage swing in the 60s really shifted the tide and made the US admin and financial conglomerate more pro-Israeli.
But you also see, what the Israelis started with counter culture in the early 60s, arabs proceeded to inflame in the 70s, without thinking of how this could never prevent shit because Israeli had gained control of it's financial leverage maker.

Oh and brother jews would never stab each other in the back and eventually implode Goldman when it had done it's time?
Oh look at that, those weird acquisitions of very toxic assets and firms at a loss seem a bit weird. Maybe it's time. They're going all in.
Crashing the US plane with no survivors.
It's not like they've just secured their most crucial asset yet - a monopoly over a major semi-conductor industry, globally.
And it's not like they're beginning to see that if they shut off all exports - they kill billions very very quickly, right?

So we've gone from using finance as leverage to now using semi-conductors and their necessity as leverage.
But those goys will never notice this.


>suddenly covid
>a new threat has apppeared!

All that leverage, useless btw. Disease manufacturing is the real leverage maker now. You can murder dissent remotely now through both disease and inoculation restriction/tampering.
Well that's just too bad.

Maybe that's why the gaza strip shit is being turned to 11 now.

>>57543317
>>57543430
tard

>>57544271
But it worked in 1994 though!
Just forget about all the other failed times.

Also reminder that Soros had factories in Wuhan.
Clearly he saw this shit coming and predicted his own devilish plan.

>TWO MORE WEEKS!!!!!!!!!
If a recession were to happen in this stage it would be extremely mild. Stop doomposting. Trust the plan.

>>57544374
If it is mild, people will ask why all the others weren't.
And that's when shit will get interesting.

We might actually get an honest audit of things for a change instead of panic and hysteria like most recessions.
Then again, we just had one of the worst crashes and nobody seems to give a shit about it because we've got "slightly bigger issues" nowadays as financial leverage declines to mere technocracy type leverage.

Because the next pandemic will be the real deal and nobody will stop it now.
It will kill billions. Covid was the priming.

>>57543525
2017 wasn't a recession as the line has to go below -4.5% to indicate a recession and 2020 was caused by the pandemic and a forced recession due to the economy stalling.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KDg8F002e90

>>57544271
>muh meme lines
Declining rates were merely the vehicle for monetary expansion, now the vehicle is bond interest, more money = assets go up nominally, simple as.

>>57544072
You could say the same about the 2003 uptick or the mid-90s uptick

>>57543430
you have to be old enough to have at least experienced the 2008 recession to post here.
>>57536880