/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57504716
2 weeks or when either
A. unemployment pumps
B. earnings dumps

until then boomers and hedgies will keep buying dips

>>57504716
Somewhere between 13 and 15 days, I'd estimate.

just an fyi, I work for an ai company, we have millions in funding, with more coming.

it does not seem like this is slowing down.

now to be fair we don't just slap LLM's on things, we actually use machine learning to provide a business desire.

please learn to distinguish between what AI & ML is and what LLM's are

>>57504730
USCJC and USIJC are continuing and initial jobless claims

no real top in the market until those break out and jobs market breaks, so doomer bros can stay sidelined for many months/years more, nobody knows

>>57504745
>to provide a business desire
Examples?

>>57504745
Midwits and non-techies are the only ones who scream about AI bubble and 'AI finna take your jobs codebros'.
Anyone working with ai/ml knows that things are ramping up behind the scenes and the tech is far from automating real tech or even managerial jobs

soon

>>57504778
TLSA dumps, META pumps
doesn't matter, people rotate

>>57504716
Never we will achieve AGI certainly EOY

>>57504772
>the tech is far from automating real tech or even managerial jobs
So who keeps falling for the hype and putting vast amounts of $$$ into what is obviously bullshit?

>>57504716
just wait for it to get banned in europe due to energy consumption
invest in brazil/paraguay whete servers will move due to cheap hydro power fo comply with ESG

>>57504745
>just an fyi, I work for an ai company, we have millions in funding, with more coming.

this just what all the tech fags hopping jobs every 6 months were saying in 2021

>>57504716
Silicon Valley AI Eng here

Literally never, this is the final "bubble" humanity will ever see

>>57504745
"millions"
these companies are overvalued by TRILLION DOLLARS

>>57504880
Oldfag who remembers the bubble popping in the late 90's here: Elucidate.

>>57504793
It's not bullshit. People just have no idea what they are talking about.

It is similar to automation/robotics in 70s-80s-90s. Some thought that these technologies will wreck the job market and leave hundreds of millions of people without jobs. What happened is that automation can only be applied to a specific set of problems and not all processes can be automated.

The same is likely to happen to AI hype. Some processes will 10x their efficiency, but overall it will be a slow and gradual shift.

>>57504716
a fortnight

>>57504716
Bout half a month.

Ok I read the free portion of that article,
Basically once there was too many mexicans in the area all of the enterprise started to fail and it is somehow the white people, that used to live there's fault

>>57504978
please give an example
all I see is a bubble

>>57504716
march, maybe april
everything will implode then

On the 18th of february

AI is literally the only important thing humanity will ever make. We've been mucking about with these pathetic 20-watt brains for 100,000 years. Now we're finally starting to create real intelligences, intelligences that can eat gigawatts, intelligences running at gigahertz, running on computers that don't have to fit in a 1200 cm3 box! It's absolutely unprecedented, 'new paradigm' doesn't even come close to what we'll see.

>>57505304
Ai doesnt exist

>>57504950
I'm in LLMs and talk to a bunch of researches at Meta/OpenAI etc. Attended NeurIPS last december where all of them gathered and have some industry connections through the startup i'm in.

AGI is the only goal any of them are pursuing anymore. Opinions on timelines will differ of course, but there is no chance of AI just stagnating or a bubble bursting or anything like that. This will continue until AGI, it's a certainty at this point and companies are not even shy talking about it anymore.

a couple of weeks i guess

>>57505600
two more weeks

>>57505600
All you deluded faga are doing is just following "add moar parameters xD" to the logical extreme, meanwhile tech CEOs talk about ChatGPT exceeding the amount of power generated on planet earth with a straight face. Transformers are a dead end amd this is a bubble.

t. smarter than you

>>57505705
*fags

>>57504844
Go look at meta or apple or Microsoft stocks, I think they'll be fine

>>57504716
NVDA tagged 666 exactly on Friday and then dropped. S&P 500 bottomed at 666 in 2009. And Mike Wilson was demoted from Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee. Yesterday was the top

NVDA tagged 666 exactly on Friday and then dropped. S&P 500 bottomed at 666 in 2009. And Mike Wilson was demoted from Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Committee. Friday was the top

>>57505705
But brooooo when it reaches the numbers of parameters that are in our brains it will finally reach the quantum AGI stage

>>57504978
>but overall it will be a slow and gradual shift.
And that's why it's a bubble. Market is pricing in parabolic AGI, not a slow and gradual shift

>>57505716
>Go look at meta or apple or Microsoft stocks, I think they'll be fine

this is also what all the tech fags hopping jobs every 6 months were saying in 2021

>>57504716
you saying it is a bubble refutes the claim it is a bubble

>>57505902
bitcoin also topped at 66,666 during last bullrun

>>57506178
brilliant logic, I bet youre a billaionire already with that kind of analytic abilities

>>57504716
The actual """bubble""" hasn't even started yet. The dot com bubble took 5 years to play out and that wasn't remotely as impactful as AI is going to be. We're looking at a multi-decade paradigm shift that's just beginning, all the while midwits will scream the word bubble over and over again while countless billions of investment go into AI companies and trillions worth of wealth is created.

>>57506282
surely by now there must have been some revolutionary companies all over the place with this totally revoutionary paradigm, right?

OOOOPS

AI is the nothingburger to end all nothingburgers. It has no potential to take anything more than the lowest of the low nigger tier jobs. Nobody who knows anything about AI honestly believes there will be an "AI revolution" any time soon and it's only a matter of time before the general public catches on

>>57506282
This is mostly correct imo. Everyone knew the dot com boom was unsustainable but it really took years to crash (5 to 7 or so). I think it will probably be years before we see the correction. Honestly as i get older i just stop following all the hype and just DCA into something histroically reliable. Once i get to where i am happy w my overall portfolo ill move into low risk shit like bonds until i retire.

>>57504716
>mania
The fact you think this is a mania shows how new you are. The stock market is nowhere near the same level of mania as it was in even 2020-2021 let alone 99-00. People are still hesitant to invest because of the bear market that was just a year ago. there are trillions of dollars in money markets waiting to dive back in. Nvidia may be inflated, but its not a bubble because they actually have GPU orders to fill and their chips are at the forefront of ML. They'll go down once other companies fill the gap, but then it wont be a widespread market crash just a correction for NVDA. We wont see a true market mania until interest rates are cut to at most 2% for over a year.

>>57508285
Also the dot com bubble lasted way more than two years. Microsoft started trading in 1987 and it went straight up until 2000

>>57508295
you might be right maybe the ai bubble won't burst until there are some major companies that go bankrupt but i think this time is different because the companies are much smaller and they are easier to crash the dot com bubble lasted a long time but most companies were only worth a few billion dollars back then

>>57504716
5 weeks.

>>57504716
Maybe when we actually hit the limits of the energy grid

>>57504716
Internet:1995::AI:2024

>>57504716
a fortnight

>>57505904
>quantum
no

>>57505904
sry you were being sarcastic. yes.

>>57506282
the difference is the dotcom bubble actually created an inroad for value to general markets. AI doesn’t.

The market always does the opposite of what you're thinking, yes you personally.

Money moved from bonds to tech. People are trying to find a safe haven as the financial system implodes.

>>57505935
>And that's why it's a bubble. Market is pricing in parabolic AGI, not a slow and gradual shift
this
AI is very useful and will increase productivity, but not by anything close to what the market is pricing in.

>all midwits, "two more weeks" schizos, silver investors and crypto bagholders call this a bubble
10 year bull market incoming

>>57505304
>>57505600
>>57506282
You have right here, all of it.
> life will never be the same
> new paradigm
all that bullshit. I just checek out of curiousity - NVIDIA has a market cap which is roughly equivalent to the whole GDP of South Korea. Let that sink in.

>>57504716
Have you ever heard the phrase "we've come too far to stop now?". That's what's happened with AI. Companies cut labor forces and opened multi-year blockbuster deals for this shit. They can't afford to back out, so we're going to zombie walk for a while here, just like commercial real estate.
Protip: when a hype cycle crosses over from mania into insanity, you don't have to sell. Plenty of people will have made terrible deals and will move mountains in an effort to make their decisions seem rational after the fact.

It's going to 1000

>>57510250
And TSMC has almost the same mcap as the GDP of Taiwan. Does that mean semiconductors are just part of a bubble that is going to collapse next year or are they simply invaluable to the global economy and you're trying to compare apples and oranges?

>>57504716
Nvidia will make me retire at 30

>>57510444
No, Anon this isn't what I am saying at all. You have a first world country that is a major producer of ships, electronics and cars among other things. All very real industries generating huge income as we speak. On the other hand there is a company supposedly worth as much as the work of 50m people in a first world country, and the valuation is based on the promise (and hopes of investors) of a technological revolution.

>>57511081
>It's just speculative
It isn't though. If it was then every single CEO wouldn't be talking about how important it is to add to their company infrastructure. AI used in health care, for example, massively outperforms human doctors in detecting disease. All of these use cases existed before LLMs brought yet another transformative use case to an already crowded table.

Nvidia simply has a stranglehold on the AI hardware market, which is why they're booming at the moment. But the hype and speculation is built on a solid foundation which already existed and created real world value and will continue to exist as the technology progresses in the future. Honestly, if you're that skeptical of artificial intelligence, I have no idea how you justify investing into cryptocurrencies.

I would not try to time it, but it's obvious to me that the market is clamoring for some kind of productivity gain that will save it from the dire straights that it is clearly in, and AI is the golden child chosen for this purpose. However the problems are the same as always when it comes to brand new tech:

- The tech is ~1 year old and not much is known at all regarding how much better it will get and how quickly that will happen. Is there a natural ceiling to the LLM approach?
- Everyone is already extrapolating out 100 years into the future, calling for the end of all labor, the replacement of the human species in a myriad of ways, etc.
- The initial introduction of LLMs was an amazing parlor trick, but the novelty has now worn off and folks are already starting to see the cracks and limitations.
- It's clear now that LLMs are massively limited by data. No good data, no good output.
- It's clear now that LLMs cannot "learn" on their own, they can only regurgitate the information they absorb, making them like really good search indexes more than general intelligence.
- Some other technique will likely need to be found to unlock general intelligence.
- That doesn't mean the tech is not useful, or that the market isn't directionally correct, only that it may have been over-promised in the short term.

>>57504716
Just 25 2003, Judgement day.

>>57504716
It’s basically dotcom2.0. That’s good and bad, because inside the mountain of pets.com tier bullshit you had companies like google and Amazon. I think the hype cycle with AI will also die down, but as long as there is something there that isn’t all hype those companies will not go to zero and probably thrive in the long term.

>>57511683
>inside the mountain of pets.com tier bullshit you had companies like google and Amazon
so which current AI stocks are the next google and amazon that will not only survive the crash but prosper for decades after it?

>>57504716
Will top out at around 800 and correct back to 450

>>57511445
>investing into cryptocurrencies
its called gambling friend

>>57505902
SORRY WHAT?

>>57505705
>>57505600
is it possible to create just one instance of AGI (consuming huge amounts of power of course) with an estimated human IQ of 300+, and then it can just run and be the modern isaac newton leading humanity forward?

>>57506282
>chatbots will be more impactful than the fucking internet
Go suck Lex Friedman's cock you insufferable midwit.

>>57504716
>Buy AI
>Coom to AI
It's simple. The market wants to coom.

>>57512308
>LLMs are chatbots
retard

>>57504716
When Pelosi shorts nvidia.

>>57504716
The week after the first interest rate cut

Buy the rumor (rate cut?) sell the news (rate cut)

>>57504716
Buy now and sell in may

>>57504716
Never the chips act and security memes will inflate it. Ai meme is another word for defense now.

Locked,Boeing raytheon are shit trying themselves cause they never wanted to invest in software and rather hire pajeets.

>>57504716
Don't think we're there yet OP. Its only NVIDIA going insane. I'm going to see a few more WebVan.com or Pets.com valued at 100 billion or someting.

Plus...never forget the SuperBowl ads test. We're not getting them this year. Pic related is always the top. Remember this nigga? Or this company?

>>57518328
Seeking Alpha says it's an F as in Fucked.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666890-nvidia-was-my-late-summer-crash-call-wrong-or-early

>>57506282
>The actual """bubble""" hasn't even started yet. The dot com bubble took 5 years to play out and that wasn't remotely as impactful as AI is going to be. We're looking at a multi-decade paradigm shift that's just beginning, all the while midwits will scream the word bubble over and over again while countless billions of investment go into AI companies and trillions worth of wealth is created.

The AI bubble isnt even a year old yet, meanwhile the Tesla bubble is over 5 years old and just now starting to pop. But the China bubble popping will be the Mother of all Bubbles, no bubble will survive the China bubble

>>57504716
People remember only the catastrophic meltup and down of the dotcom bubble, but the hype started well before that, in '97 or so. It didn't reflect as much in the market because back then the market was a lot harder to whip into a frenzy.
We've yet to see all the articles about how actually useless AI is for anything except scamming. Once those are starting to run, it's definitely time to sell SPY.

>>57504716
As soon as Nancy Pelosi sells a shitload of NVDA shares

>>57504745
I also believe that the AI trend isn't coming to an end anytime soon, especially with new projects likes Nuklai that's bringing new innovations with its Datasets to the AI industry

>>57515714
Haha, this is so true

>>57519914
That project is also on my watchlist

>>57510250
Yep. Absolute top signal.

>>57506282
>paradigm
Mind the chart

>>57504716
> Nvidia is more than just AI.
> They make most used graphics cards (poor fags can't cope.)
> Video game consoles dead in the water leaving only Switch and Deck as options for the future due no games.
> This moves the average normies into playing video games on their phones, deck or PC.
> Increasing demand in graphics cards.

>>57519496
Is there a way to track her portfolio and set up an alert for when she sells NVDA ?

>>57504716
Today. It's unironically over.

>>57521922
prolly just some profit taking from yesterday's surge.
How can we track Pelosi's NVDA status and shorts?

>>57504716
The AI bubble will not pop, as AI is not a bubble in the traditional sense. It is an evolving technology that will continue to grow and develop. While there may be fluctuations and challenges in the market, AI is here to stay and will only become more pervasive in our lives.

>>57504716
ai will be banned
ai will kill zoom due to new attack vectors posed by deepfakes
watch

>>57522352
The internet was here to stay in 2001 too. Didn't stop the majority of associated stonks going tits up. NVDA in particular has a Chinese CEO, that's all you need to know that it is a huge ass scam stonk.

>>57522381
>ai will be banned
That actually sounds like something that could happen considering how much damage deepfakes are going to cause.

>>57504978
Its already begun to wreck the job market though. Just not at the scale that midwits think it has or will. An order of magnitude or two less than whatever they think is still bad for the social fabric though.

>>57506531
Ironically the actually lowest tier jobs are completely safe from automation for as many years as it takes to discover some insane new material science or manufacturing tech to make robots economically feasible to build.
What current AI does is act as a force multiplier to various white collar jobs, which means you can have one person do the work of 10, and you will see new positions like "prompt engineer", "prompt manager". That's the revolution, its already happening. But as the absolute idiot faggot that you are you're probably expecting terminators or the sudden arrival of AGI (which actually is a nothingburger).

>>57504716
EOY. AI is getting banned thanks to the hacker group known as Anonymous.

>>57506282

>new paradigm!

>>57504716
>Roko's basilisk
Imagine daring to short the AGI

>>57524394
Now THERE is a great use of AI tech. Most productive use seen to date.

>>57504716
AI won't buss, it's an actual innovation. Keyword search and the standard form of internet research is like having world books in 1995. Gradually it will be a total relic, you're not gonna google anything, you're going to ask an LLM conversationally the same way you'd ask a human except this one is smarter than everyone you ever met combined.
I had a domain and wanted to build a website on it to host some projects. I started out just looking at html guides, hello world and shit, before I realized how retarded that was and asked AI to do it for me.
One week later I have the entire fucking thing done. It actually blew my mind how intuitive it was. I literally just said show me html that does this and that. This element doesn't look right, fix it. Can you make that a button? Make it respond visually when you hover a mouse over it.
Brrrrr goes all the fucking code in seconds doing exactly what I wanted. Holy fuck, I can't believe how much time I saved on that shit.
Then I thought you know what, I have some model problems I want fixed. Write me some VBA that transforms data this way and produces this result. Fuckin immediately does it versus me spending an hour or two reading 50 shitty slack posts.
I have an equation of the form whatever. Isolate z in a manner that preserves the exact value, no approximations. Easily peasily.
Shit is so fucking cash I can't even stand it.
Here's a cover letter. Rewrite it, but make it more appealing to a hiring manager. Emphasize expertise, be formal and persuasive. Out shits a fantastic and concise paragraph.
If you're honestly bearish on AI you just have not used it to its full potential yet. Even this junk is just scratching the surface. I used to think like you that it was an overblown fad until I started actually using it. Shit is unbelievably money, superpower tier; if you just get good at prompt engineering the world is legitimately your oyster until everyone else figures it out.

>>57510250
Except sometimes it actually is. You don't need to look that hard to see examples. Even dotcom, ixic still outperforming the other benchmarks for 30 years. Simple answer the age of petrochemical and fabrication was out, technology and services were in.
I'm not putting any money on this. I just know a good thing when I see it. It's such a clearly superior technology it makes a ton of shit obsolete.

>>57525487
>until I started actually using it.
which one specifically were you utilizing? Could I ask it to write a VBA script for renaming 25K one page pdfs by concatenating some fields in Excel?

>>57504716
Yeah but anyone who says they can predict markets doesn’t own a doghouse
And for now everyone believes the Fed will bail everything out once more

>>57527733
No it would fail

similar mania, completely different product and use case

>>57504745
Top signal

>>57504716

AI is just a meme.
Its just computer programs recalling stored models without being able to tell why it choses them.

>>57528005
NVDA is mother of all meme stonks?

>>57527733
Use chatgpt for this, just write as if you're posting on here.
>I have a bunch of pdfs I want to bulk rename with excel. Write me VBA that accomplishes this

>>57528921
It spit out some VBA that looks like it might work, but it still needs to have some human eyes to customize (concatenate 2 different fields) e.g.

"Also, adjust the renaming logic according to your requirements. This example appends "_new" to the end of each PDF file name."

>>57528949
actually it just needed the question tweaked and it spit out what I need (i think). Will test it tomorrow. Thank you for the tip! This shit is actually pretty powerful after using it this way. What stock(s) besides NVDA are good for buy and hold long term currently?

"Adjust the concatenation logic as needed. This code assumes you want to concatenate columns A and B with an underscore in between them."

>>57529007
You need to clarify your requirements if it doesn't satisfy them initially, and if it did something wrong then tell it what it did wrong. With really niche issues, sometimes it helps to generalize it so it doesn't get confused about what information is most important.

You can also just describe your problem and see what solutions it offers without imposing a pathway. Like maybe concatenation isn't the way it would do it if you had just said I want this result make it happen.