/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57461155
Chainlink fired the last dev and hired 8 new HR roasties

>>57461155
Bidenomics, amirite?

How is crypto and the stock market keep going up when businesses are getting raped

>>57461155
damn, thats so nice.. means fucking Jerome will have to start cutting rates again. literally inflation is below 2% because unemployed people can't into buying things

>>57461155
"labor shortage" am I right

>>57461280
>"labor shortage" am I right
I am from croatia. We have 30-40% youth unemployment, yet our government tries to sell us the 'labour shortage, import niggers' meme.

Incredible. They'll do anything, just to avoid raising wages.

>>57461221
Simple market correction. Those companies probably expanded too rapidly during the QE

Zoom just laid off 10%

>>57461155
What they don't tell you is that all these corps overhired during Covid, and these firings are only part of the overhiring.

In other words, it's actually a nothingburger. Just bad leadership from corps who couldn't predict that covid-caused growth was temporary.

>>57461176
omg you are a comedy genius. you should be doing stand up comedy anon like the clown you are.

1/2

>>57461221

Because the stock market is almost completely decoupled from the rest of the economy.

I (and many other economists) have been saying this for years now. It's all a psychological game.

#1. First of all, 40% of Americans don't even own any stocks. Of the 60% that do, most of them only have a 401k, 403b, IRA, or some other kind of retirement plan. Very few have individual taxed brokerage accounts. The entire S&P 500 (which is what most retirement accounts are invested in) runs off of pure momentum. Last year the vast majority of the gains came from just a few stocks, basically 20 stocks accounted for all of the gains, while the other 480 were flat or down. Since the S&P 500 is a marketcap weighted index, the top 10 stocks make up around 30% of the fucking index. The stock market is a game for the top 10% of the population to siphon money from the plebs.

#2. The FED has very little control over what actually goes on. Most of the system is run by commercial banks and the eurodollar system. Again, it's a psychological game. "Oh look, if the FED cuts rates the stock market will skyrocket!" Now, go look at an actual chart for once in your fucking life and stop watching CNBC. If you don't see a clear pattern of what actually happens after the FED cuts rates, you're wasting my time. The FED is a follower, not a leader.

#3. Look at every leading economic indicator, literally every single one of them is negative. The only three indicators signaling growth are GDP, Unemployment and the S&P 500, which are all lagging indicators. Now go look at GDI, labor force participation, the yield curve, commercial bank loans, consumer debt, delinquencies, household unemployment and the detailed job numbers. We lost full-time jobs and added 700k part-time jobs. Of the jobs we added, like 90% of them were in government, healthcare and hospitality.

The massive fiscal deficit spending is showing am artificial boost in the official numbers, but none of this is actually

2/2

>>57461221
>>57461517

none of this is actually real growth. It's just the government doing everything it can to fudge the numbers and make everything look good while Biden is in office.

It's all literally Fake & Gay.

>>57461155
Fuck yeah the bottom is in.

>>57461155
>still layoff posting in 2024
This is fine and priced in.

Zoom just laid off 10%
>>57461524
>2/2
>
>
>none of this is actually real growth. It's just the government doing everything it can to fudge the numbers and make everything look good while Biden is in office.
>
>It's all literally Fake & Gay.
Sorry chud, but orange man bad.

>>57461602

They do the same shit when Republicans are in office too, moron. If you're not going to contribute something useful to this thread then fuck off back to >>>/r//pol/

The economy is strong and only republican chudtards who should go back to POL think otherwise.

>>57461672
Yikes. Cool it with the attitude there bro. Also, I would appreciate it if you could hold off with the homophobia as it offends me and the others here.

>>57461524
>It's all literally Fake & Gay.
No its not, you really can sell and get the money, therefore its real.
I agree with most of the rest tho, but also the usa economy isnt really in a bnad shape, muh recession fags are waiting for years now
And dont forget, the more government debt the more money is around, the more worthless it is and that makes assets go up

>>57461188
>the president controls all the corporations

>>57461816

Try harder.

>>57461820

If you thought I meant the currency you could get selling a stock was fake and you actually couldn't get it, you're as ignorant as >>57461816

>muh recession fags are waiting for years now
Lol, no they haven't. The yield curve hasn't even been inverted for 2 years yet, so how can it be "years" waiting for a recession? We aren't talking about retarded perma-bears like Peter Schiff.

>the more government debt the more money is around, the more worthless it is and that makes assets go up
"Muh prices go up!!!"
Learn how to read inflation adjusted charts. In fact, educate yourself on statistics in general.

Clearly 4chan isn't worth my time. If you morons want to ignore alpha and good information, goodluck to you.

This whole fucking place has been ruined by zoomers and redditors.

0 knowledge of economics
0 knowledge of finance
You dumbasses can't even read charts or understand basic mathematics. It's all just shilling and rebbit-tier trolling.

Have fun shilling each other your shitcoins and getting rugged.

>>57462219
Can you link the related alpha articles or studies for what you are claiming? I do believe you but i've never read alpha and wondering if it's worth it.

>>57462219
You aren't saying anything interesting, and you never even mentioned the most interesting shit such as the SEEDS economic model so shut the fuck up.

>>57461517
>>57461524
>>57461672
>>57462192
>>57462219

bruh first I thought its another /pol/ACK, but now I think its a fucking schizo, get back to /x/

>>57461221
>be Lowes
>jack up prices because you feel like it, not because of inflation
>fewer customers spending more money
>fewer customers means fewer employees
>fewer customers paying more for less means smaller inventory
>report record profits per square foot of store because you’re selling less for more and cutting costs on inventory and wages
>stonks go up because of record profits
>meanwhile, fewer people are working or able to afford supplies
>”Wow look at the stocks! This economy is great!”

We’re like a tube of toothpaste getting squeezed to absolutely nothing while the people on top load their brushes. The example I listed about Lowes is true. An anecdotal story about Lowes is a friend of mine got put out of her business in lawn care and landscaping because of floods of immigrant labor undercutting her, and it was go work for Lowes and share an apartment or live out of her car. (She had already sold off her equipment and lost her home to the bank.) She is now living hand to mouth at the mercy of Lowes who could let her go at any time. But, hey, what a great economy we have!

>>57461307
the retired boomers eat it up and cant figure out why the youngsters arent working meanwhile I and everyone I know have to apply to like 300 jobs just to get a handful of interviews and the slim chance of a call back

>>57461221
Because this is a correction from when the companies grew too much during covid growth

>>57462322
He is right though, stock market =/= economy.
It seems like the way Central Banks (i.e. the FED bc every other central bank just follows the FED.) stimulate the economy, inadvertently inflate asset prices.
.. and in particular growth stocks, not value.

>>57462106
You're mocking him but he only got the directionality of the relationship wrong.
>The corporations control all the presidents.

>>57461307
I live in the state of Mississippi. We are the poorest state in America with the highest welfare rates. Our primary industry is agriculture. Crops, chicken plants- that is our main industry. Large corporations have bought most of it out. They won’t hire us. We are the cheapest state in America and they won’t hire us. They bring in floods of immigrant slave labor to take all of our jobs. They crowd into cheap housing and drive housing costs up. They fill our emergency rooms. They overcrowd our public schools with hungry kids who can’t speak English. Our poor schools have to feed them, hire bilingual instructors, provide ESL learning materials, and our own children get less teaching time and fewer intellectual challenges as everything gets gummed up and dumbed down. American retirees and remote workers are moving here to save on housing, also making things more expensive. Our birthrates (except for Welfare mothers) are in the toilet and people are leaving the state in record numbers in search of opportunity. We’re basically a third-world country here now. And yet the immigrants keep pressing in. I hate them. Anytime I go to Walmart I feel like I am in an international airport. I see VERY few white children anymore.

>>57462360
>the retired boomers eat it up
there is literally an age old meme for that, pic related

>>57462403
sorry bruh... I feel also bad for the /g/ retards. They learn programming and do self improvement, just to never get a chance because of h1b1 visas

> fire bucnh of people
> stocks pumps 10%
> econony doing le great

why do people who invest in ponzi tookens with zero intrinsic value not understand this?

>noooooooooooooo stocks are supposed to fall when dead weight is cut!!!!!!!!!!!!

>>57461307
In America they lie about unemployment.
If you don't have a job for 3 months, they don't say your unemployed anymore, they call it something else that is never ever brought up in the media.
So when you see 12% unemployment, they're not counting all the people who are not employed even longer.

>>57461524
Based and thank you for giving me hope.
I like so many others want to watch it crash back to the dot com crash or worse.

>>57462502
it's like that everywhere... if you are not actively searching a job, that is reporting to the unemployment office (which is optional), you are removed from the statistics.

>>57461155
>CORPOS RUGGED LOL
was net hiring up or down in 2023?
yeah. that's what I thought.

>>57461155
Layoffs are absolutely brutal this year (so far!)

>>57461517
>>57461524
Lmao bruh just say u didn't buy. Would save a lot of words.

>>57461155
everytime i suspect a top signal, they do shit like this and drag it out another few months

>>57461221
Because tech bubble. All other stonks have gone sideways.

>>57462271
>>57462300
>>57462322

Look, if what I'm saying is above your pay-grade just be quiet and try to learn something. You miss out on vital information because all you want to do is troll and shill shitcoins.

Do any of you even work in the financial industry? Unlikely, most of you brag about never being educated and being unemployed, still playing vidya-games in your 30's and have 0 aspirations for the future. That is why you are so miserable and do nothing but antagonize people on an anonymous internet forum. You have nothing else to live for. All you understand is anger and money, because without that, your life is even more meaningless than it already is.

>>57462963 > >>57463262

>>57462376
smart cookie

>>57461155
ruggeus corpus

>>57461517
>>57461524

This is the only guy in here making any sense or giving an honest assessment of the situation and the zoomers are just dismissing him as "lol crazy." scary to see how far we have fallen in the west.

>>57461517
>>57462219

ok so based on all this gnawledge: up or down?

>>57461155
Good for shareholder value.

>>57461517
>The stock market is a game for the top 10% of the population to siphon money from the plebs.
So this is why only jews are saying this is a great economy and praising bidenomics while irl normoids are priced out of groceries. Biden's entire cabinet is ZOG and he is dementia ridden puppet suffering from elder abuse. ZOG is squeezing the goyim dry. Probably going to drag us into WW3 as misdirection too.

>>57461517
That's the same feeling I've been having about this whole game. Do you think we'll have a bond crisis? There is no way this country can keep issuing at the rate it is.
Biz has turned into a shit hole, smg has some good stuff every once in a while

>>57463654

I honestly don't know. I don't think anybody does. The only thing I can do is look at different graphs and models and listen to what other economists are saying and then put probabilities based on the information I have.

I am bearish, but I still have some stocks in the game just in case I'm wrong. I haven't shorted and don't plan on shorting at any point. Any bear that shorted last year got destroyed. I do have a huge chunk of cash on the side getting a 5.35% yield just in case there is a correction though.

The government issued an insane amount of Treasuries last year and the market sucked it up. Check this out; https://youtu.be/t1_a5syFpOc?si=pTYrpfib0Y48tltW

You have to be willing to listen to everybody with an open mind, but at the end of the day, it's up to you to decide where you're going to put your money. I listen to Joseph Wang every week and even read his book, I like Joseph even though we disagree on some fundamental issues. I'm not going to hate him on a personal level just because we disagree on something. I listen to Jim Bianco too and we have a lot of opposing views.

>>57463654

I honestly don't know. I don't think anybody does. The only thing I can do is look at different graphs and models and listen to what other economists are saying and then put probabilities based on the information I have.

I am bearish, but I still have some stocks in the game just in case I'm wrong. I haven't shorted and don't plan on shorting at any point. Any bear that shorted last year got destroyed. I do have a huge chunk of cash on the side getting a 5.35% yield just in case there is a correction though.

The government issued an insane amount of Treasuries last year and the market sucked it up. Check this out; https://youtu.be/t1_a5syFpOc

You have to be willing to listen to everybody with an open mind, but at the end of the day, it's up to you to decide where you're going to put your money. I listen to Joseph Wang every week and even read his book, I like Joseph even though we disagree on some fundamental issues. I'm not going to hate him on a personal level just because we disagree on something. I listen to Jim Bianco too and we have a lot of opposing views.

>>57461221
I always asked myself how layoffs are seen as a growth indicator because more profits.
The disregard the economy shows for the worker who is making it bigger annoys me.
Imagine just for one second, a global strike accross al industries and service providers.
Would be fun, right? Haha...

>>57463771
the people in power only care about pumping their own bags even if it means creating a destitute hellscape around them

>>57463757
Thanks for the info, I was looking for other people to hear their ideas, Schiff is a huge doomer and I figured it wouldn't be healthy just listening to him.
I've got my funds pretty much setup the same way. It's just nuts that these companies are reporting lower revenues and minimum 10% workforce reduction and seems to bother no one.
The company I'm at is massive and they are pinching pennies like they won't make rent next month

>>57461155
>tens of thousands of $100k/year+ jobs eliminated
>tens of thousands of minimum wagie jobs added
THE ECONOMY IS DOING GREAT, FOLKS. LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT (HIGHEST WAGIE IN WAGIE) RATE IN 10,000 YEARS!

>>57461188
If economy takes a shit this year, Trump will become president again like a 100%

>>57461517
>>57461524
Very based indeed.

I appreciate your view anon, thanks for sharing.

>>57463771
If layoffs are due to automation, then it is a net good for the company.

When the steam tractor became commonplace around 1830 there were a lot of layoffs in the agricultural industry. But if you owned a business related to agriculture you werent exactly going to lose money.

>>57464051
There was no such thing as a fucking “layoff” in 1830 you geek. They just threw you off the fucking farm

>>57463832

I actually like Schiff, but he's been saying the same thing for 16 years now. I still listen to every podcast he does though.