/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57345963
My take is it looks to good to be true. Even if normies dont notice this yet, isnt it suspicious? Why would the powers let a window for mortals to win? Idk these months the market has made me craft a tinfoil hat

>>57345963
Jews buy BTC OTC, then dump it on the market. That's my take.

bitcoin was a long con

>>57346059
This, they already bought a long time ago and if it comes on the news it just means they are ready to dump

>>57345963
Is it me or BTC has never been that volatile since 2019? Like it gained back 1K in 20mn.

>>57346059
There is only so much BTC that is available OTC.
Coinbase's supply is quickly dwindling. Before long there won't be much OYC BTC to buy. what do you think happens at that point ?

>>57346090
Once Coinbases OTC is sold out and the miner's have finished dumping their reserves which most have held for years (which most are currently doing) then we should see some wild swings.
Also many holders of Greyscale's ETF are selling to buy the Spot ETF's do to the much lower expense ratios. GBTC HAS to sell to cash and alot of people won't because of the tax hit.

We should remember that we haven't even seen pension funds buying or other ETFs bundling the BTC etfs yet.

>>57345963
Whale games, scaring off normies, scaring off potential big buyers, 100K will happen and when it does, the blow off top is going to make people shit themselves

>>57346188
There is around 10,000 BTC BUYS from the Spot ETF's per day. That's without ANY pension funds, nation states, 401k groups, Government retirement programs buying.
Around 11,000 BTC are being sold per day due to GBTC, Miners dumping and Coinbases OTC + other OTC sellers.

At some point there will be no OTC and GBTC left to sell and the quarterly rebalances of Pension funds will buy into the Spot ETFS.

It could very well be the moonshot that is, as you say, "Going to make people shit themselves"

Good thread.

>>57346242
I'm not selling until people realize Fiat is a dead end and they all hyper rush to Bitcoin. It'll happen sooner than you think.

Got my BTC in my cold wallet. Stacking GBTC in my Roth as we chink downward. Feels comfy bros

>>57345963
What I don't get is: Why would all other ETFs buy BTC OTC but Grayscale would dump it on exchanges and not OTC.

>>57346242
The moonshot is going to cause suicides, the real fun begins when we lop over 100k, it's going to be disgusting, total bear genocide. Next bear market people will pray to buy BTC near 50k again, it's basically buying a house for nothing.

>>57346524
>What I don't get is: Why would all other ETFs buy BTC OTC but Grayscale would dump it on exchanges and not OTC.
Ah that's a great question. the answer is that the SEC requires that Grayscale sell their GBTC to CASH. They tried to argue for Like-Kind trades to get around the tax implications but the SEC told them no go.
You have to sell it to cash.. meaning to USD.

>>57345963
If we know the supply and what is being bought/sold. Can't we calculate when it will happen if this trend continues?

>>57346188
True, whales are manipulating. I like what they're doing as it allows me to buy my fave altcoins, including Jasmy, DUA, VTHO, at dip prices.

>>57346596
You could

So let's say 10,000 BTC bought a day by ETFs on average (without pensions funds etc even buying. Just Retail)

GBTC selling 10,000 BTC a day. They have 582K left.
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale

Miner's selling NORMALLY 3,000 a day when the market is up trending and 0 when it's down trending. 450 BTC will be created per day in 90 days (The halvening)

So let's say that everyone that holds GBTC will sell it to goto SPOT BTC ETF's
100% of them sell. That would take 58 more days to do.

At that point there is ZERO GBTC to sell and only buying pressure.
Miners will have 450 BTC to sell per day
OTC, Who knows but Coinbases OTC wallet is being eaten up by the ETF buys

>>57346596
Here is what Coinbase owned before the ETF's

You can see Coinbase's OTC hotwallet draining here
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/address/3MqUP6G1daVS5YTD8fz3QgwjZortWwxXFd

Was that Rockstar fu?

The thing to remember with Bitcoin is this.Price ALWAYS follows Hashrate

>>57346449
This. So long as USD is still seen as "risk free", the bull run is not over.

>>57346858

>>57346576
Why is OTC not selling to cash?

>>57347235
It is but think of it this way.
I (GBTC) want to sell 100 million in BTC to USD and right after that I want to buy 100 million in BTC (IBIT).

If I sell OTC it doesn't lower the price of BTC.
So when I buy the BTC the prices goes up.

If I sell at marker then the price of BTC goes down and when I buy the BTC OTC, I pay less.

Why the FUCK would Blackrock et all want the price to go up immediately post-ETF? They want to load up the ETFs as much as possible and then have the price go up because then the returns of the fund and its participants is much better. They got the best possible gift in the form of GBTC unwinding to stagnate the price. Barry is just skimming as he exists the space because there's enough indictable shit that went on with him in 2020-2022 that he knows he can't stick around or the DoJ will fuck him up the ass.

>>57346688
So we have less than 58 days left. That puts a deadline at March 17th.

Am I crazy for going all in Jan 2025 BITO calls? no other etfs have options yet and I'm pretty confident btc flows will be insane by then. My only real fear is that ProShares shuts down BITO for some reason. Honestly not really sure why anyone would buy it now that spot ETFs exist.

>>57347477
checked and yeah, looks like it. Could be more downside from here, but the selling pressure will definitely be down by then.

>>57347552
Well You could do them just out of the money and buy a few puts a longer way out of the money as insurance.

>>57345963
There was no price discovery. Everyone knew these ETFs were coming.

Priced in you fucking dumbasses

>>57346029
they let it happen cuz the odds of their return are so high compared to the few people who will make it. most people dont invest enough to have a major impact on their own lives short term, or even long term.

>>57347605
Outflows from GBTC were not priced in and still are not. No-one knows how much GBTC will ever be sold as it is a tax event.

>>57346066
this. in hindsight it will be obvious.

>>57345963
>Coinbase held around 1 million in BTC the day of the ETF start.
what does this mean? Are you saying the entity coinbase, held as there own, 1m btc?
I don't doubt it, but sort of do doubt it.

>>57347686
No Coinbase held 1 million in BTC wallets that are thier customers BTC.
They Held 10,000 in thier own OTC hotwallet.
You can see how much they hold now
https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/address/3MqUP6G1daVS5YTD8fz3QgwjZortWwxXFd

>>57346029
People were saying it'd never go to 16k for that reason, that the powers would never allow the masses to buy in that cheap.

>>57347618
The GBTC outflows were known. You obviously didn't follow the trades that blew up 3AC and the like.

So many were trapped in GBTC.

For a long time there was a GBTC premium that turned into a discount until ETF.

How much was the discount manipulated to trap GBTC hodlers until ETF approval? Why were they OK holding it as the BTC price accumulated up to approval? Why are they getting the fuck out now?

The ONLY people that are going to touch GBTC are those that have a large taxable sell and can stomach the ridiculous fee. Those are the only people left for Barry to milk. But he risks the price declining enough that those people will get out too.

>>57347973
But gradually all of that BTC will be recycled into the newer cheaper funds right? Or am I missing something else?

>>57347973
>The GBTC outflows were known.
Where they ?
So why haven't more than 10% of the GBTC holders offloaded yet ?
tell us since "it's known" howe many more shares will be sold by the end of the month ?

How many shares of IBIT ARKB FBTC BITB will be purchased in the next six months, since "it's priced In"

How many hedge funds, retirement accounts, pension funds, government and private 401ks, sovereign funds and third world governments etc etc will buy into one of the ETFs in the next six months, since "it's priced in"

I'm surprised how you aren't a billionaire with all the foreknowledge you have.

Nothing was priced in and you are ridiculous.

>>57347618
One of the boomer investor newsletters I read is telling his GBTC holders to hold tight with GBTC for now despite the higher expense ratio. Not sure what that's worth, but I'm holding onto GBTC for now anyway.

>>57347973
>How much was the discount manipulated to trap GBTC hodlers until ETF approval?
For being the only Bitcoin fund I would say not much. Also they believed it would be a Like-Kind trade to switch to the Spot ETF, so no one would be trapped.

>Why were they OK holding it as the BTC price accumulated up to approval?
Who the retail buyers ? Because it would be a tax event if they sold and they were holding for higher prices. Many still are. Less than 10% of GBTC was sold

> Why are they getting the fuck out now?
10% did because I would assumed they hold it in IRAs so there is no tax event. The others aren't selling. There was no mass selling.

What the fuck does this have to do with that "it was priced in"...

I'll tell you. Z E R O

>>57346861
>77HcHAN3
huh

>>57348761
If anyone held GBTC and is going to have a tax event because of selling it to buy one of the spot ETF's, I'd say don't sell your GBTC.

If it's in an IRA I'd say sell it and buy one of the ETFs. I bought ARKB because of zero fees if held for six months.

>>57346688
>>57347477
>>57347588
Anons...

>>57348782
Bro Zhu Su wrote about this shit in like early 2023 or even 2022 everybody knew there were people trapped in GBTC that needed out on conversion idk what to tell you. Technically yes you are right it's not 'priced in' more like a second derivative that people knew sell pressure would exist and they priced out the price in.

>>57349568
There is ZERO way for "Zhu Zu" to know what verdict the SEC would come to concerning like-kind trades to spot ETF. ZERO.

and no one is stuck in any ETF. You just sell.

tony vays say we are goin downto 1k but mr novogratz say we have bottttoooooooometed out

>>57345963
You know it was over 200 days before gold pumped after gold etf's ?

>>57349918
Yes did know that. A very similar scenario.
Or as the Thais say, Same same but different.

>>57349947
Based

>>57346242
Bitcoin is too pumped to get rich from it. Thoughts on MSTR and Miners? Im considering going 250k MSTR and 100k on MARA. If that isn't a million at some point during the bull run so I can retire I will blow my brains off with a double barrel shotgun.

Problem is, the fucking ETF frontrun noobs overbought this shit so much that this may have to capitulate lower before any real bullrun begins. The moment you YOLO in is so fucking crucial. The people that get real rich are 100% cash and get on a good entry, not DCAing all the way down into the bottom. You need balls and you need luck, simple concept.

>>57346094
Then they buy "Bitcoin" OTC.

>>57349947
whats that MA?

>>57345963
My take :
GBTC has 600k of Bitcoin. They sell around 10k Bitcoin everyday. After 2 months, they'll run out of Bitcoin, it's probably moved to Fidelity or Blackrock.

During halving (2nd local top), the same shit will happen. Blackrock, Fidelity will start selling shit (around 20k BTC per day). Market will feel the pressure, price will go back to $30k - $40k.

>>57345963
This shit was supposed to be a prototype.

>>57346029
The powers that be could have just banned it a long time ago. Being a paranoid doomnigger about everything is maladaptive post convid. We survived.

>>57345963
My theory is all of the ETF providers bought BTC in the buildup to the ETFs going live. Everyone buying in to the ETFs are purchasing the BTC the asset managers already held. Eventually they’ll run out and need to buy more. Give it until 2025 and you’ll likely see some decent returns.

>>57351521
It seems the ETFs had to file how much Bitcoin they had on hand at the beginning of the ETF sales.
Here's a list. Note the "Assets", that's BTC

>>57346066
and the US dollar is the longest con of them all

>>57351854
how stupid are you..? i dont even wanna know.

atleast US dollar is backed by the most capable military in the world. hows btc? fucking shit i hope that BTC fucking gets dethroned and shorted to zero

Blackrock can buy every bitcoin like it's nothing for them while keeping price from pumping. They are hijacking bitcoin as we speak

>>57352756
Hi Gensler

>>57352756
>he thinks the US military is capable
My man, the US just got done losing a 20-year war against guys whose whole thing is wearing towels on their heads. Previous to that it lost a different war to guys whose whole thing is digging holes and putting spikes in them.
The rest of the world benefits from NOT being in a state of war. This fact has fooled you into thinking that they're afraid of the US.

>>57346688
>>57347477
checked. screencap this in case it's real

>>57354971
Follow this guy on Twitter if you want to see those charts daily
https://twitter.com/Capital15C

>>57354971
Here his latest from yesterdays close

>>57346688
>>57355014
>>57355027
>>57351412
>>57345963
Totally clueless here, why exactly is Grayscale selling 10k BTC daily, while every other one is buying?

>>57355541
So Grayscale had a private Fund before all these BTC ETFs came out. Since 2015 I believe.

Their fees are 1.5% on their fund.
So people selling and buying in and out of the fund with the movements of BTC get hammered with fees. Long term HOLDers, not so much.

So the new ETFs came out and their fees are VERY VERY low. Some are 0% if you HOLD six months. So people are selling Greyscales GBTC and Buying into other funds like IBIT and ARKB.

>>57349618
there's only 2 possible options. imagine believing an (ex) billion dollar fund operator wouldn't think through both implications

>>57355767
Yes you would but that doesn't make it "priced In" for potential investors or the crypto sphere as a whole.

>>57355665
Which ETF do we like best? Assuming we want a balance of good management and low fee

>>57356208
Well I will tell you which one I picked personally.
I picked ARKB because:

1) I like Cathy Woods
2) Because they have a .21% fee and 0% if held six months
3) because she is Christian and the other people running the other ETFs are.. well you can look it up
4) Cathy Woods has shown that she can make money for her investors IE: Elon Musk and Tesla

https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkk/

Those are my reason for picking the ETF I did.
Others will strongly disagree perhaps.

>>57356247
Thanks bro. I'll move into it (IRA funds - no tax)

>>57356576
That's the move brother. I'm still DCAing in.
Best wishes for your future financial goals and your life in general.

>>57356617
You too. Gonna move about 220k in ROTH cash into these ETFs either way. Been DCAing into GBTC as we chunk downward (140k in so far.) You saved my ass. Thanks for the quality thread.

>>57356638
220k is a good chunk. You might want to buy some cheap insurance. Download Rockwallet and buy at least 50 BSV. 50X$72=$3,600
You most probably will loose 50% of it
https://www.rockwallet.com/

BUT if Craig Wright wins the upcoming COPA case in England then all bets are off and BSV could flip BTC rather quickly and you'll be rich.

>>57356638
and Blackrock might have been eluding to this very thing.
From their SEC filing for IBIT

>>57346029
>Even if normies dont notice this yet
you zoomers are the normies, you're not early

>>57356694
Will look into it. Thanks buddy

>>57356694
>this guy was a bsv shill all along

>>57358350
Kek

>>57358350
And so the thread dies. Kek

>>57358350
LOL Nope I'm not but you'd have to be on drugs not to get a 5% insurance on BSV winning the COPA case and their teranode with 1 million transactions per second coming out this quarter.
95% of my money is in BTC

> before etf
boomers going to buy our bags! $1 million eod!!

> after etf
grayscale are selling. wawawa

you btc maxis are insufferable faggits.
jumping from one excuse to another.

>>57346090
That's what I've been saying. Some were saying ETFs were gonna neuter Bitcoin and make it like a stable coin, but it's the opposite. Weekday mornings are crazy fun now.

>>57360023
>Weekday mornings are crazy fun now.
The ETFs don't actually buy BTC until an hour after market close. That's when it's more interesting.

>>57360001
Kys

>>57346094
>what do you think happens at that point ?
As always, some fresh new bullshit like FTX bankruptcy or Grayscale dumping will come along to kill the pump

>>57359706
He winning will be irrelevant. What would happen anyway?

>>57362450
Lot's of things actually. He gets the Bitcoin name and he can easily defend his patents.
When Blackstone puts it in their ETF filing it makes me takes pause.
https://i.4cdn.org/biz/1705785023914141.jpg

>>57362628
People will dump Blackstone coins. Saylor's stack dwarfs all the ETFs and I doubt he will go for BSV.

>>57362713
I agree but I never discount herd mentality. That's why 5% of my port is BSV. Insurance against the mob or I lose 5% of my port..

>>57362819
Based

who cares, it go parabolic in less then 2 years, if it doesn't, it's over. time will tell so buckle down

Should I be buying more BTC now or waiting for the halving?

>>57365874
Start DCAing now

>>57365912
This

>>57365874

>>57346066
I'd rather roll with low mcap utility alts that got the balls for long-term gains. Loading up on DUA, KREST, QANX, and DIMO to my bags. Time for Anons like me to yolo on these moonshot plays.

>>57346188
You're based, Anon. These whales out here toying with Pajeets' feelings. Put a halt to my buys, currently diving into the ongoing BrillionFi Open Beta. V1 dropping this week, it's gonna be lit.

>>57356617
DCA's been my bread and butter, Anon. Putting in that work, accumulating the tokens which its smart wallet linked up with itsFLUUS, bringing RWA to the emerging market.

>>57370674
>>57370645
Jeets

>>57346029
>Why would the powers let a window for mortals to win
They don't care that a few goyim make a few mill, if (((they))) make trillions.

We're the dogs licking the crumbs off the floor.

This is the most bullish dump i've seen since autumn 2020. Load up on BTC and majors asap, This isn't a drill.

>>57346188
Whales shitting in each other's mouths.

>>57345963
My take is Coinbase will start selling customers' BTC OTC to the ETF scumbags and implode

Take your BTC, coins and fiat out of Coinbase. You have until the end of the year. That's my take.

>>57346188
This. You never sell your Bitcoin.

>>57372565
That is utterly retarded

>>57372690
yeah that's what they said about FTX as well.
Reminder that coinbase has ZERO (zero) Proof of Reserves.

If you think they aren't operating on a fractional reserve basis you are at best naive.

>>57373087
Agreed