/biz/ - Business & Finance

there has never been a soft landing in US history but this time is different, the fed will cut rates and everything will go to the moon

>>57328783
There's still an incredible amount of demand pent up. Problem is we're still having multiple supply chain issues that began 4 years ago.

>>57328800
are you being sarcastis? if not explain why will go to the moon with no liquidity

>>57328783
>Explain how shit doesn't crash

>economy completely fake and gay
>vast majority of the markets controlled by only a few firms
>company boards/brokers/firms/congress all in bed with one another
>consolidation of nearly every industry
>Fed can stealth bailout any firm with unlimited liquidity
It SHOULD crash, but you bears are getting delusional about how controlled this market really is.

>>57328826
Pretty sure its going to moon(sarcastic)

>>57328812
What demand? It’s been 4 years since the pandemic and the subsequent “pent up” demand. Businesses and consumers are getting tapped out

>>57328826
Yes I was being sarcastic

>pre 2000 irrelevant because it proves me wrong
Great thread.

>>57328858
Sorry i am retarded.
So without the rrp liquidity and with a mountain of debt to pay how are they going to keep the market up?
Public spending? Cant crash in an election year or that is what i have read.

>>57328888
No, because its pre QE internet fast information traveling pre internet pre megadebt era.
>>57328828
At the end of the day contrarian take.

>>57328910
>no because [cope reason]
Great thread.

>>57328783
Have you looked at the chart? It doesn't always crash immediately when they start cutting.

>>57328888
This

>>57328907
>So without the rrp liquidity and with a mountain of debt to pay how are they going to keep the market up?
They can't, the fed would have to go overdrive with easing monetary policy
>Cant crash in an election year or that is what i have read.
Yeah that's usually what happens, keyword being *usually*

>>57328888
It kind of is irrelevant in a way because the stock market is different now.

>>57328907
It crashed bigly in 2000, 2008, and 2020. 2020 was the only one relatively early in the year, though.

Market =/= Economy. The Fed's job is to force nominal growth at almost any cost as nominal growth allows risk free capital return, this is the mechanism behind oligarchical parasitism. Earnings ratios have ballooned over the decades from monetary expansion, not declining rates, declining rates were merely the vehicle for monetary expansion. Real rates are always negative to zero under debt based fiat, 2022 was the bottom, all the money printed during the scamdemic is still here, earning 5% interest (printed into existence through deficit spending), waiting to flow back larger than ever
>Graph note: The Fed stopped reporting Institutional Money Market Funds as a separate series in 2020, hence ((Total MMF/1000)-Retail MMF's) as Total MMF's is given in millions of millions instead of thousands of billions and Retail is already included in m2

>>57328956
>It kind of is irrelevant
Yeah, because it proves you wrong.

Great thread.

>>57328916
>I don't like facts
>"cope"
>>57328932
yeah but you want to be bagholding? theres a margin to make money until it happens but theres a risk

what if it happens before btc goes parabolic and we just crash for 3 years

>>57328972
It proves me wrong? I'm not saying the market is going to crash you moron. And yes it is entirely different now.

>>57329002
It's not going to happen before BTC goes parabolic. There is so much liquidity being added to the markets and no indications of a recession this year.

>>57328958
>>57328938
I really wish to get some nice entry points as i am sitting with a lot of cash, but i feel like they will trick us somehow

>>57328962
Too high iq. My take on this is that high rates = debt is harder to pay = the longer rates stay high the higher chance something cracks and recession starts = FED panics and lower rates, thus lowering rates means it already started and it confirms it, its not because things are fantastic.

>>57328962
To further elaborate, bobos think what the Fed learned from the GFC is "helicopter money is dangerous", but what they took from the GFC was "normies are even better slaves than we thought, we can fuck them so much harder". The result was the ridiculous monetary expansion seen in 20-21, while the economy has been in a real terms recession since 2020, the market continues to make ATH after ATH and will continue to do so. Without one or more large cap equities going bust à la lehman the market will not crash

>>57329017
well this chart shows in 2000 even before first cut shit was crashing and in 2008 it was like clockwork with the first lowerings

2020 the rise was not as steep maybe thati s why it took a while and had a last pump

but this is the steepest rise ever in rates, so this means sudden increase in debt for anyone in debt and there is more debt than ever, so when people and businesses start getting hit by these higher debt waves shits gonna crack bigly. i dont wanna be bagholding by then. i want straight cash and buy cheap shit like 2 years later.

>>57329057
You know like 50% of the market is just normies passively investing with their 401ks. We've already fully recovered the 2021 bear market. Therefore I fear no crash.

>>57329003
Don't care.
Great thread.

>>57329068
It's more complicated than that but many areas of the economy are growing and not struggling with debt.

>>57329032
>i feel like they will trick us somehow
Always expect Jewish tricks.

>>57329089
I don't care for your opinion either. You're a useless troll and a stupid cunt.

>>57329035
>high rates = debt is harder to pay
Real inflation is always (ALWAYS) higher then FFR, rates therefore don't matter. I reiterate, "declining rates were merely the vehicle for monetary expansion", now the vehicle is bond interest.

>>57329096
how do you keep track of such a clusterfuck then
i just apply basic common sense

the cpi went a bit higher, this will force them to have rates higher for longer

the longer they keep it up the higher chance something cracks

also unemployment rates worth checking with this

>>57329107
Yeah I can tell by the fact that you didn't reply to me while I was engaged with someone else.
Oh wait.
Great thread.

>>57328962
Any recommended books and websites/information?

>>57328783
Fed only lowers rates when they need to, which is normally when shit hits the fan. but each time the central bankers & gov get better at responding to the problem.

the regional banking failures really should have been the thing to break this cycle but because of how targeted and effective the fix was everything went back to normal & fed didnt need to cut rates.

>>57328800
>>57328826
The fed has had a change in philosophy, and the chart is misleading. In the past, they only lowered rates and pumped QE in response to a disaster. They lowered rates slowly and late. I believe they have learned through covid 19 that they can directly control the economy by lowering rates to 0 instantly and printing money at the first sign of trouble. They recognize now that the economy is planed, and they are the planners. As long as jerome is chair, there will never be another recession ever again. why would would he choose to have a recession when he could choose not have one instead? Recession or 10 percent inflation? Easy choice, 10 percent inflation. they're talking about waiting and slowly lowering rates, but the second theres even a hint of something materially bad happening, the interest rates will be zero and they'll have printed 1 trillion dollars. Number. Must. Go. UP.

>>57329134
>>57329151
Alright sweet. Enjoy buying my bags at the top lol.

>>57329244
>I don't care
Great thread.

>>57329219
second wave inflation that becomes too high will create civil unrest due people not able to afford basic stuff, which leads to even higher rates which leads to people not being able to pay mortgages etc

>>57329134
Clusterfuck? There's like 5 indicators of a recession that we use. 4/5 say no recession. You want to simplify everything to just basic economic reports when they aren't really being used to determine a recession.

>>57329108
inflating debt away and controlled demolition of zombie corps & institutions is prob the plan going forward.

>>57329199
Unfortunately, it's my own hot take based on a plethora of sources read over the years that I myself could not enumerate

Bastiat
Hume
Hayek
Dawkins (Selfish Gene era)

Wouldn't be a bad start, tho

Are you trolling or are you really this dumb? I'm not sure if I should be admiring you or shaking my head

>>57328783
shit has already crashed. you may not be able to see it on the stock chart but go outside and touch grass. Everything is so much more expensive, there is hardly any opportunities, homelessness is at record highs and living standards have never been worse. the jews fucked us and nobody is smart enough to realize the rug has already been pulled from under our feet

>>57328783
did the market crash when 10y/2y was still inverted?

>>57329253
They will just ratfuck landlords again to free up cash for rentoids.

>>57329307
Yes, which is already happening
>bankruptcies graph.png
This won't cause a market crash, however

>>57328783
It's going to crab downwards slow enough that nobody panics thus creating an illusion of a soft landing.

>>57328835
are you jewish (derogatory)?

>>57328783
If you look at when the price started dropping and rates increase back in 21, you'll notice that the jews tried to be cute this time. They tried to frontrun everyone else dumping when the economy actually collapses. Usually everything keeps pumping with increasing rates until the economy crashes.

Now because of that we'll be getting a double crash, once when the jews frontran each other, once when the economy actually crashes

There is no point expelling energy on educating the masses when they are completely ignorant to what is happening around them

>>57328958
Well, 2008 ended Bush and they put a guy with the blackest name imaginable 'Barack Obama' in the white house, and the pandemic in 2020 ended Trump's office. Idk about 2000 i was in high school.

>>57331326
Everybody wants a crash to get in with low prices, so that makes it unlike to happen.
Idk i allways expect some misdirection tactic to happen in a large scale. Dca is the only non-retarded thing i can do that i understand.

>>57328962
not that often you see a genuinely smart anon.
of course many anons are kind of smart, it's how you end up here, but put them all together and it becomes the standard, whereas next to them this anon is still smart.
apart from the fact he suggests Dawkins.
he did mention Hume though. Yeah there's a little but there isn't much that's smarter than Hume.
imagine explaining his 'necessary connection' to a board of anons who more or less peddle and preach economic orthodoxy almost like the missionaries of yore (even when they are straight up libertarian they often fail to acknowledge that very obviously narrative and power is upstream of economic law)

anyway, doomer anons have always posted all types of FRED graphs and then say 'in 2 weeks' . They do it so often and for so long that eventually it will happen and one of the 'reasons' they explained it with will then be 'the' indicator until next time, when it isn't, while of course along the way they will forget all the times they called it wrong. 'Even a broken clock...' and all that.
Just a few months ago it was the constant posting of the total consumer credit graph or the percentage of credit cards making only minimum payments one but getting anons to even talk about the idea that 'debt as a percentage of gdp in a particularly inflationary environment' is of much more significance than 'total debt' (which obviously will almost always go up) was work enough, and before those graphs it was something else and before that something else too.
It's like the stoch rsi anon who would write unvarying and dreich commentary about what will happen next. My guess is he is still waiting for a pull back at somewhere between 28k and 32k.
Between the in 2 weeks doomer anons (which make up a lot of the board but i guess allow for thesis, anti and then synth) and the meme moon anons and the fuddsters and the shills and the stoch rsi above all anons, it's uncommon to find anons with particularly interesting views.

well the market will dump as soon as they cut rates. Everyone that is a retard thinks functions of a market are entirely one dimensional. Back in the 70's rates were getting cut from 20% to 5%, VS 01 till now, rates just range between 5% and 0%. those are massively different economic environments. 20% interest rates is inhospitable. 5% is good. So going from 20% to 5% is like going from communism to a free market, business now have a reason to take out loans. However, going from 5% to 0% doesnt really change the way major companies do business. Also, since 01' there are more people in the market then ever before. They all think the market will rally on rate cuts. So when the rate cut comes, they all go take out margin positions and you know what happens next.

>>57331326
Anon, nobody is really disputing that a recession will come. It's the cycle and the nature of boom and bust. To state that a recession is coming is redundant because, frankly, WHENEVER you aren't in a recession (and even when you are) there is always another one coming. So what is there to gain by constantly saying another recession is coming?
There was one in 2019 and there'll be another one. In the meantime, there have been enormous gains to be had and, frankly, there are still enormous gains to be had. Don't be the kid who doesn't get invited to the party because every time he won't play musical chairs.

>>57328783
Economies take time to respond to monetary policy. Many of you misunderstand this. It's more like shooting a cannon and seeing where the ball lands, then adjusting and firing again. It is not an immediate kind of thing
Frb's strategy with rates is to change them until something breaks. They are necessarily lagging. They don't know what exact level is going to produce the outcomes they want so they simple raise or drop rates until they observe the economy change to their intent.
Why didn't prices fall yet? Two reasons
>rates are not actually lower yet and it isn't guaranteed that they will be on your expected timeline
>price growth in the economy literally has not stopped (thus assets follow)
Even in your drawing you're going out at least 2 years, but always you guys want it to happen NOW
When we do see this it will be a protracted bear market anyways like everything else on your chart
I'm in the higher for longer camp on this one, the stimulus activity was way overdone and that inflation pressure still remains despite signs of weakness in the economy
I just saw a post last week charting the number of "soft landing" news articles over time
OP wanted it to be bearish, but if you look, they tend to spike right before major bull markets

>>57331473
anon, almost 30% of the market is owned by three funds. who exactly are they going to dump on? and even if you could propose the eponymous 'they' , how are they going to do it?
conventional market orthodoxy (which never really actually applied anyway) most definitely does not apply here.

between oil crises, war, the new deal, the threat of communism, the great financial crash, covid, etc and so on there is always a narrative that trumps economic orthodoxy and there will be again. In the meantime political necessity suggests a recession (as declared official, not 'actual lived and experienced' aligned with m2 non expansion or contraction) isn't happening in the 4chan proverbial '2 weeks' .

>>57331555
>30% of all bonds, stocks, fiat, gold, oil, land, derivitive contracts is owned by 3 funds
kill yourself. I said when they cut rates the markets will dump, I didnt say 2 more weeks.

>>57331555
> almost 30% of the market is owned by three funds
...holy shit

>>57331594
what's in the words 'when' and 'will' anon?

you say
>WHEN they cut rates the markets WILL dump

ok, i agree with you. Not really saying much though are you? Because the 'when' could be anytime between now and basically forever and the 'will', even when the 'when' comes to pass, could be that very same moment rates are cut or it could be 2 months later or it could be 2 years after rates are cut...

so, you're not really saying much at all anon and it's essentially tantamount to 'there will be a recession + one proviso' . Yep. Real insightful and like a quaker parrot. Sounds intelligent. But does it ever say anything it hasn't heard somewhere else first?

>>57328783
We already turned the economy off and on again during quarantine I think. Should be good for awhile. At least 3-4 more years bare minimum.

>>57331639
you just use a myriad of buzzwords and said nothing important only to get completely dunked on by 2 random anons. Wait till rate cuts, Start looking for short entries. What else should I have to say to some retard like you?

>>57331466
>My guess is he is still waiting for a pull back at somewhere between 28k and 32k.
>Between the in 2 weeks doomer anons (which make up a lot of the board but i guess allow for thesis, anti and then synth) and the meme moon anons and the fuddsters and the shills and the stoch rsi above all anons, i
But the real doomers are calling 12k like Capo
Isn't 28k and 32k a realistic target?

>>57331473
The mega low rates made businesses take on massive amounts of debt. So when you raise the rates back to 5%, now they have massive amounts of debt updated to 5%. This is why I say, shit can crash if they keep rates for too long. And if they lower rates too soon, then inflation will come back anyway, needing even higher rates to keep it down. So I don't see how FED dodges a clusterfuck. This is why im all cash in monetary funds. However I feel like an idiot since I should have stayed in the market since the market goes up during FED rates going up, but now it may be too late, I may risk being in the market for the last exit scam pump.

>>57331502
>There was one in 2019 and there'll be another one. In the meantime, there have been enormous gains to be had and, frankly, there are still enormous gains to be had. Don't be the kid who doesn't get invited to the party because every time he won't play musical chairs.
Yeah but if you don't get out, all these gains vanish. Question is, are you willing to baghold until the last minute? what if you are there in BTC chart? and similar for sp500.

Thing is, real gains are realized gains, unrealized gains can go to shit any time. This is the problem. What the fuck to do then.

>>57333526
so where are we? 1996 or 1999?

>>57328783
Everyone has forgotten the Bank Term Funding Program which bailed out more banks in dollar terms than in 2008. That fucked everything up. Combine that with 15 million new illegals getting $5k per month, hard for the economy to react to higher rates.