/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57030027
TWO

rates going low = something is broken and only jpow and co have the inside intel = crash as fuck
simple concept

>>57030027
over for who? did you see how much the S&P went up this year?
invest when the market is good
invest more when the market is bad

>>57030077
>over for who?
Permabulls and degenerates that thin the fed will cut rates six times next year.
>Futures Markets Expect 6 Rate Cuts in 2024
https://archive is/WnvgP

>>57030027
I've been warned about this every year for the last 5 years. Nothing ever happens.

>>57030027
Just one US economist said that? What did most dentists say?

>>57030223
dentists already lost their money in dentacoin 5 years ago

>>57030239
Oh my that does sound bearish

>>57030031
>if it doesn't arbitrarily fit into my two week meme timeframe then it won't happen at all

>>57030027
Of course it will be be.

>>57030204
The can has been kicked down the road for years now. The argument is the road is running out. If you are a zoomer I can understand why you can't see what is coming. Gen Z transitioned to adulthood during times of unprecedented qualitative easing. Short of hyper inflating the dollar there is no way that what has occurred economically over the past decade can continue indefinitely..

>>57030027
Oh no no sir. It might not even be 2024. The euphoria could go on for a decade before a freefall never seen before happens. We aren't just going to get away with the 20x 2008 fallout building. They are going to print 10 trillion dollars to bail us out? AHAHAHAHAHHA!!! They will keep selling mcmansions for another decade before they allow it to happen.

>>57030027
sorry op. too late. Janet Yellen already said, there will be no recession. everything is fine. this the best economy we've ever had.

>>57030027
2 more weeks and it is all over

>>57030317

>>57030296
MORE

>>57030027
Look me in the eye and tell me the exact same thing wasn't said 1 year ago about 2023. Verbatim the exact same thing. I'm not fucking falling for it.

>>57030027
>foxbusiness
the fact they are going so hard trying to convince everyone there's about to be a huge crash makes me think we are about to pump hard as fuck.
>>57030204
Bitch literally looks like moot with tits. Maybe it is him now for all I know.

>>57030036
That chart, what a fucking clown show I've been born into

On another note, boomer fucks think the stock market crashing 30% is a life-altering, once-in-a-generation event because 99.9% of them only invest what they made from their jobs that they've worked for 45+ years. Like everyone here has heard about the "great financial crisis of 2008" like it's some apocalyptic event from 15 years ago that changed the world. The reality is the market crashed a bit, with some big companies going under, and the entire thing more or less recovered like 5-6 years later.

The reality is that a 30% crash isn't really a big deal and you should invest regardless. These boomer fucks cannot conceive of something actually crazy happening, like the entire US stock market losing 99.95% of its value and staying at that level for the next 50-100 years, hundreds of millions dead. THAT's the kind of shit that their headlines suggest, and yet the reality is always nothing close to that. Anyone who has held $1 million+ in a shitcoin before is more than used to this kind of turbulence on a daily basis. Literally inconceivable for the people that write headlines like OP.

>>57030314
You cant prove it. I've been waiting for a crash since 2011, every year some yahoo says "this is it, were doomed!" And yet here we are. It will happen eventually but you shouldn't pay attention to these cry wolf faggots in the mean time.

>>57030582
The DOW went from about 31k to 18k in 2020. Did that not count for you?

Or are you waiting for the scenario I suggested above, that we drop 99.95% and stay there for the next 50-100 years minimum, an ACTUAL crash worthy of the doomsday headlines in the OP?

>>57030582
why were you waiting for a crash in 2011 anon

>>57030593
I mean its back to ATH now

>>57030027
since when economists can predict the market?

>>57030485
WEEKS

>>57030593
We all know why that 2020 crash happened. Pure panic caused by COVID. There was no underlying cause beyond that. It was artificial. So when the market started to rise again, it had nothing to do with curing the underlying weaknesses in the market. Those vulnerabilities are still there.

>>57030951
Markets were about to crash, but then the wuflu was invented. A mere coincidence.

>>57030036
>just ignore 1980 to 2000 data

>>57030027
wow 2 weeks to the new year damn

>>57030027
>Faux News

>>57031771
Let me ask, do you ever look at a dog wagging it's tail and think "Huh, that tail has a dog in front of it!"

>>57031963
>>57030036

>>57032010
The chart ignores like half of the dips. It's a shit indicator. Dog wags the tail, not the other way around.

>>57032039
there were more indicators than just that, you know

>Scholars believe that declines in the money supply caused by Federal Reserve decisions had a severely contractionary effect on output.[7] Despite the inherent risk of speculation, it was widely believed that the stock market would continue to rise forever.
> On March 25, 1929, after the Federal Reserve warned of excessive speculation, a small crash occurred as investors started to sell stocks at a rapid pace, exposing the market's shaky foundation.[8] Two days later, banker Charles E. Mitchell announced that his company, the National City Bank, would provide $25 million in credit to stop the market's slide.

Can someone explain to me what is the point of providing millions of dollars in credit to stop the market slide? I don't understand how variations in stock prices could possibly have wider ramifications on the economy. A business going bankrupt, sure, but it's literally just the price to buy some equity in a stock it's literally no big deal. Even were the price of your corporation to collapse to like $1 you're still a shareholder as long as the company doesn't go bankrupt

>>57030027
Bottom signal

>>57032132
At that point the bulk of society was in the market. Everyone from mom and pop to professional investors to young people fooling around had poured their money in due to such rapid growth.The market crashing meant meant the bulk of society was about to lose all of their wealth. Trying to prop the market up was an attempt to stop that from happening. It didn't work. The market crashed, everyone invested went broke and the economy ground to a halt. Wealth was lost. Jobs were lost. It was devastating to society. A lot of people lost everything. The great depression was a thousand times worse that the supposed great recession of the 2000s. The recession in the 2000s was not "great". That is a bullshit term the media came up with after the fact. Sure, some people got screwed in the 2000s recession. It was nothing like the great depression though.
Think about it. Imagine everyone you know, all of /biz/, all the investment banks, all of wall street losing everything in a few days. Not some dip bullshit either that gets bought and pumps back a few months later. Complete destruction of societies wealth that takes decades to recover from. That is what happened in the great depression.

>>57032556
> everyone in stock market from mom and pop to youth. A lot of people lost everything.
makes sense. but they retained ownership of their high-dividend paying shares, did they not? or did they panic sell virtually everything
reading about those days it seems like everyone behaved like a bunch of niggers. If stock market were to crash to Great Depression levels today my high-dividend-yield stock like British-American Tobacco would go from 9% yield to like 60% yield, it would make me rich. Tobacco consumption remains fairly stable, so while maybe BTI revenue would decline, it would not be a significant decline and I'd still make giant guap from dividends

also on wikipedia they said that high tariffs enacted by the US Senate immediately after the crash were to blame for many of the problems, as they caused retaliatory tariffs that shut down international trade.

>>57031963
He's right. I was on here back before covid and all that people were talking about was trying to decide if WeWork or Deutsche Bank will fail first and trigger a domino effect, as well as a bunch of metrics like the yield curve giving goofy numbers. Then when covid happened (I won't debate here whether it was accidental or not) they had the perfect excuse to pump a bunch of printed money into the system to cover everything up. Evergrande's collapse was another thing that could have triggered a recession (that was already there!) but all the covid money covered it up. We even had the usual business closures that happen with recessions, they just all happened to be "covid-related".

>>57030027
There will be an small sell off in the news year. This will trigger retard bears confirmation bias that the market is for real going to crash and then 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter of 2024 will all be hugely green and bobo will rope himself for being a midwit and listening to Jewish mass produced news propaganda

>>57030582
>this stupid motherfucker told me at 11 o clock it would roll over back to 1 o clock in 2 hours
>retard doesn't understand number only goes up
>well, dumbass? Its been 90 minutes and it sure doesn't look like its gonna happen
>what a bunch of faggots

>>57032806
>they retained ownership of their high-dividend paying shares, did they not?
Not many. The many stocks went to zero and the companies closed. That is what I mean by they lost everything.
>everyone behaved like a bunch of niggers
Pretty much the same as today. Plenty of companies are valued way beyond their actual worth right now especially tech companies. Some claim this is the new normal. Doesn't make fiscal economic sense though. Time will tell I guess.

>>57030036
Then how many years or months left?

>>57030036
>>57031805
This is because it more to do with the inversion of the curve, since 2000 this just tends to happen when they raise rated and inevitably lower them shortly after because the amount of leverage and debt is the system and the policy of the fed to attempt to ‘fix’ any downturn

If you told me the economy was going to crash over 13 years ago and it crashed id call you a faggot

>>57033444
What’s the January FUD gonna be? They’ve got nothing. Mainstream narrative will be Biden economy is amazing until after his reelection. Very good for crypto chuds.

>>57030027
>MFW I lived through 1987, 2001, and 2008

>>57034378
Of course you would, that would be 2010 and it had literally just bottomed

>>57030204
>Nothing ever happens.
Exactly.
100% Chance of 2022 Recession
100% Chance of 2023 Recession

Please shut the fuck up while I get paid

>>57030027
27 trillion over 15 years, 3 trillion over the last SIX MONTHS btw. 3.3 trillion to be exact

>>57030036
if oil/goods prices go up because of this houthi thing then they will have to raise rates more and everything blows up, simple ass

>>57030406
she also said we can afford 2 wars and we'll always stand by our partners in ukraine and judging by the pentagon's latest statements that doesn't seem to be true

>>57034568
>tfw I was too young for all of them

Doom and gloom sells clicks for Fox.

>>57032947
>We even had the usual business closures that happen with recessions, they just all happened to be "covid-related".
I had never thought about it that way, Really activates the almond.
>>57033502
Top kek

>>57034658
So whose lifetime is it the worst crash of? I guess it could technically be both in that case.

>>57030567
>The reality is the market crashed a bit, with some big companies going under, and the entire thing more or less recovered like 5-6 years later.
>recovered
It was all fake. Endless printing.

>>57035074
“Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas, that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.”
or maybe just 1929 again. Who knows.

Harry Dent is a dumbass. He was predicting a crash every year for the past 100 years.

>>57035453
Wheel turns over, same as always. It'll be alright.

You guys realize the economy is fake right? It can't crash. Its a walled garden. Its like a computer simulation where you control all the parameters. Thry figured out long ago that having real economies results in too much chaos for the plebian population.

>>57030027
Didn't read but
1. Normie
2. lol normie
3. kys
4. Have fun staying poor

>>57030567
avg. consoomer maximizes their standard of living to the absolute most they can squeeze out of their paycheck even if it means living way outside of their means
that's why they think even a tiny little drop in growth is an apocalyptic event, because it means they would actually have to adjust their behavior

>>57030027
I could see this happen IF there is an event like a volcanic winter or an uncontrollable outbreak of piracy on international shipping, with thirdies using portable 3d printers/thorium reactors. Or something like that.

But as for this taking place within a market cycle nah. Tradfi will just make the wagies suffer and consolidate further, without much disruption.

>>57030036
Nah, that chart says we’re gongo. Gold bull confirmed

>>57030314
Oh my dear, naive friend. This is all correct except for one final, and most important part. The can be kicked square into the nuts of every other country. The us spreads its debt out across the entire world easing the pain, burden and continuing the money printing

>>57030031
LESS

>assets will crash because of all these dollars we've printed!
guy is an idiot, melt-up will continue unabated

Imagine not fading economists kek. Raging bull on its way

>>57030314
Sure it can. Fiat suffers plastic deformation not brittle failure, you can double USD every decade forever. We've been on this road since '71, there's no end in sight

>>57030027
A crash to conclude hyperinflation is not a reason to avoid the game.
You'll finish with currency worth nothing, or debt worth everything.

Choose your position.

>>57035929
>there's no end in sight
That's where you are wrong bud.

>>57030027
I am feeling ultra bullish now. All coins will go beyond ATH.

>>57035929
>fuck the wagie
>pump the board bonuses

that means its going parabolic

>>57030031
nothing wrong with me

>>57030036
>bond convexity and duration causes banks to lose over half their balance sheets in the course of a year after a 5% move in interest rates causing massive bank runs and implied nationalization of all bank deposits of any size in order to cover it (SVB)
>banking system is functionally insolvent with an emergency money printer now needed to keep it going
>jpow must have inside intel something bad will happen, thats why hes lowering rates

>>57030593
It went back up in no time. That's the whole point- it doesn't really matter. Nothing does. Except maybe ur industry getting fucked but thats your problem. Your neighbor can murmur sorry and keep going their ways.

>>57038261
>Your neighbor can murmur sorry and keep going their ways.
It's all so tiring. Society is too far disconnected from reality in the modern world.

>>57030031
FIDDY