/biz/ - Business & Finance

Bump

There will probably be a drawdown in stocks and other assets of some kind, followed by a massive inflationary wave once central banks start printing trillions again.

Deflation would only occur if the people running the banks and the government were fiscally responsible and recognized that saving the dollar was more important than saving their stock portfolios, which they aren't.

>>56947314
Why do you think major retailers are predicting deflation? Do they see something based on their own private consumer spending reports?

>>56947330
Like I said, I think there will be a drawdown. The PPI almost entered deflationary territory but stopped just short of it, so I'm using that as my baseline. Once the drawdown occurs however, the Fed and other central banks will do what they did in 2008 and 2020 and lower rates+print money, so don't expect a prolonged period of deflation.

>>56947371
We aren't even at that high of rates yet though looking at history.

>>56947410
No, but we have far higher debt than in the past, making higher rates unfeasible without the interest on the debt exceeding that of all other government spending.

>>56947314
There is way to much debt to be serviced for deflation to be viable. Everyone is drunk af, been an alcoholic for a century and quitting cold turkey will simply kill at this point.

>>56946868
Yes. Then the Fed will kick it into overdrive and flood the market with money triggering the economical miracle of the century.
I'm starting to wonder if this was all planned or if the Chinese and Saudi ineptitude really concocted such a perfect scenario for them.

>>56947449
Will this be driven by a steep decline in consumer spending?

>>56947545
Very likely that consumer spending slows down this year. Will it matter? I don't think so.

Compared to China, Europe and the middle East, the US has the best outlook for 2024.
Booming oil, inflation in check, sturdy consumer spending even amidst last year's crisis and the "china decoupling agenda".
Only thing that can change it is the election uncertainty but that's unknowable and therefore useless to speculate on.

>>56947695
Now I'm confused. This doesn't suggest deflation coming.

Bumpin

>>56947314
Jerome Powell already has the government by the balls, and they can't stop him.
The man lying about how inflation was transitory was extremely reckless and retarded, but I'll give him one thing, he hasn't backed down on easing interest rates because he knows the moment he does, all his hard work for the past 3 years disappears.

>>56947314
saving the dollar is not important. its just a number on a screen.

all that matters is me, my gains, and how much i can cash out into physical goods before the dollar collapses