/biz/ - Business & Finance

>inb4 some college kid who finished Econ 101 comes in and claims to be an expert

I love these threads.

more supply than demand

Oil has a few different things going on, but gold and silver are fairly simple. They're safe haven commodities. They only do well when everything else is garbage. The opportunity cost of holding them is too high when even one other asset class is doing well or even expected to start doing well. Strong equities, strong dollar, and the expectation of rising interests rates all cause people to abandon the sinking metal ship.

>>566834

anyone who didnt get out of gold/miners in 2011 is a fool. gold is a hedge nothing more. oil is going down because the cartel wants to end shale.

>>566850

How low is gold gonna go.

>>566858
I've seen analyst predictions of 950 USD / ozt in 2015.

>>566864

that seems reasonable, and if you look at charts, 950 is where it would be 'naturally' were it not for the happening in 2011

>>566834

Gosh, it's almost like we're sliding into a recession/depression, except equities aren't reflecting the reality of the situation due to manipulations by central bankers. But no, that's silly. Yellen said so.

>>566873

If we were falling into depression, precious metals would go up.

Isn't debt at record levels right now?
The recovery we've experienced is debt based.

Theres gonna be another collapse in a few years.

metals are going to fall back down to 'normal'

>>566873
Fed ends QE yet equities keep climbing
Silver and gold fixing is reformed yet they keep falling

Yep, must be all that manipulation.

>>566845

This. Underrated post.

Anybody else reading this as a signal to buy like mad?

While it's possible oil may continue to go down, it's completely inevitable for it to rebound, oil simply can't stay cheap forever.

>>566894

That's what I've been doing with silver,

I think a repeat of 2008 is right around the corner to be honest.

ALl the warning signs and practices from 07 are back in full force, and nothing changed except we added more debt and told ourselves it was better

>>566894

Its been like 2 days since Saudi told OPEC to fuck themselves, I think the rape train will go on for a few weeks.

>>566834

Global deflation fears. Ownership of hard assets like oil and gold do well in inflation, but the flip side of the coin is that they get hammered in deflation.

>>566896
>I think a repeat of 2008 is right around the corner to be honest.

What makes you think there will be another loan crisis? You have no idea what you are talking about.

10 dollar silver ho! I can imagine all the silver dealers are freaking out right now.

>>566834

shakeout to a decade long bull market on gold/silver. russia and isis are big buyers tho. cartel is letting supply kill shale in doing so running deficits (like they give a shit).

>>566916
>What makes you think there will be another loan crisis?

Oh, I dunno, maybe it has to do with something called the Student LOAN bubble?

>>566943
That, paired with the credit card bubble could cause a real shit festival of a market correction.

>>566943
>>566945
Not really. Student loans and credit card debt is much more of a problem for individuals than something that can cause a systemic effect.

Compared to the mortgage crisis, the amount of debt is much smaller, there are fewer holders of SL and CC backed securities, and someone defaulting doesn't cause others to default.

They're bad, sure, but not housing bubble bad.

>>566834
foreign currency is being revalued, especially the iraqi dinar

>>566834
Pic related

>>566917
>mfw I've been resisting the temptation to buy

>>566958
>systemic effect

Not quiet, we're already seeing signs of student debt affecting industries across the board- i.e. millennial first time home buyers, car ownership, luxury spending, etc.

>>567335
Right but they arent packaged as triple A and sold and reaold until everyones backing the same thing in a giant clusterfuck.

Lack of spending power is another piece to the puzzle but a "Default crisis" on student loans wouldn't wreck the wntire system

We're just scaring the people that think $1.89 gasoline is a nightmare.- which is fine I love a good equity sale. History, Econ and cycles it's all at your library and probably free. See you at the commodity bottom of 2027

>>566867
What happened in 2011?

Can someone explain China's love for gold then? Russia also loves gold.

I'm assuming this is CIA-level manipulation to damage foreign oil, yes?

where do you invest in silver?

>>567355
Yup.

Its a force of hand move so that Putin has to sell gas to the Europoors.

>>566896
>That's what I've been doing with silver,
i'm no regular on this board. does /biz/ have some kind of how to guide of buying precious metals? what to watch for/avoid, storage. i read the prize for physical gold shouldn't be over 10% of market prize.

a sticky would be great.

i'm in central europe and think about buying physical gold.

>>567383
>Central europe
>thinking about buying gold
>2014
>much moron

Polak confirmed

>>567386
>>much moron
why?

>>567387
>not investing into titanium dildos
need I say more?

>>567387

When the SHTF, do you think that Gold will feed anyone?

In the meantime the price could well go lower.

But of course you can do whatever you like with your hard earned.

>>567355

>the CIA, an institution with a $50bn annual budget, most of which has to be spent on overhead, is capable of manipulating MULTIPLE mutitrillion dollar global market

Just because you don't like something doesn't make it a conspiracy. Did the CIA also cause 2008?

>much Russia and China

Does the fact that Trayvon Brown also buys lots of gold chains to impress bitches mean that the price of gold is obviously manipulated by a banking cartel? The fact that there are net buyers of commodities isn't bullish, especially when they're dumb retail investors in China or the Russian government trying to soak up domestic production.

>>566845
Simply this.

>>567335
Yes but that's still from individual debt. It doesn't cause a credit freeze and one person not paying a student loan doesn't cause his classmates to not pay their student loans. They aren't all intertwined like with the mortgage crisis.
>>567355
Countries buy gold for different reasons than individuals. To keep Chinese exports competitive, China prints yuan to buy dollars. This leaves it with a pile of dollars that it has to do something with. Rather than just buying more U.S. Treasuries, they can buy gold and other debt to basically diversify.
>>567383
IAU, SLV

>>566834
Oil is going to 40,
arabs wont back down production
us is trying to hurt russia

>>567510
Read some article on the internet based on speculation, parrot it as a fact.
Nothing is certain, can't predict future. If you are so sure why don't you hedge on futures???

>>566834
everyones liquidating their shit to buy XRP

either that or the dollar is getting strong relative to that stuff relative to other currencies by being the least worst of them all

>>566882
It's a nonanswer. Op's implied question is why the shift in supply/demand dynamics.

>>567409

>>567409
>Just because you don't like something doesn't make it a conspiracy. Did the CIA also cause 2008?

You can't just yell conspiracy and dismiss my argument, a lot of pieces moved on the board very quickly, there's obviously some type of collusion occurring.


>when they're dumb retail investors in China or the Russian government trying to soak up domestic production.


so Russia/China buying gold to back their currency isn't a problem?

>>567676
>so Russia/China buying gold to back their currency isn't a problem?
Correct, it's not a problem.

>>566896

do you even know why the crash happened in 2008?

>>567681
how is BRICS having a gold standard not a problem?

you're talking about a bunch of nations ganging up to replace the petrodollar, this thread is about the ensuing financial warfare and attempt to retain power in the oil market.

>>567851

>so Russia/China buying gold to back their currency isn't a problem?

Russia is buying domestic gold production like mad because that's the only way for them to accumulate reserves at the central bank without hurting the ruble, so that they can then spend those reserves to defend the ruble. But that doesn't mean they're "backing" the currency with gold because the net reserve outflows are far greater than the gold inflows, so their currency gets shakier as time goes by. They've had to burn through a quarter of their reserves this year alone, and at the current pace they'll be completely out by late 2015 to early 2016.

>You can't just yell conspiracy and dismiss my argument, a lot of pieces moved on the board very quickly, there's obviously some type of collusion occurring.

Yes. This is because the oil price is controlled by a cartel known only as "OPEC". Nobody's ever heard of them, though, and it's unclear what exactly they're doing in the market...

Hah, no, actually it's crystal clear. OPEC is trying to drive down the cost of oil below US shale breakevens to kill production. Literally anybody could have told you this.

>how is BRICS having a gold standard not a problem?

First, because a fixed currency over a non-optimal currency area is completely unworkable in a modern economy absent massive fiscal transfers, as the Eurozone is doing a fantastic job demonstrating, and because a shit credit backed by gold is still a shit credit. Nobody in their right mind would lend to Brazil or Russia at under 10% because they're probably going to default on their debt, and making them pay in gold just makes it more likely that they'll default. Gold only protects lenders from inflation, which is only relevant in countries that do their borrowing domestically, and none of the BRICS have the necessary capital markets or wealth to do so.

>>567851
>this thread is about the ensuing financial warfare and attempt to retain power in the oil market
No, it's not. It's about why commodity prices are falling.
>how is BRICS having a gold standard not a problem?
Because it isn't a thing. That isn't what's happening and it was be nonsensical for them to do something like that.

>>567932
>it would be nonsensical

On the off chance that a BRICS currency was created, it would be backed by a basket of currencies, not gold.

>>567338
>>567418

You guys are right, there wont be a bubble pop and crisis like with mortgages. It will be a gradual effect. Student debt is now a significant drag on the economy and is only getting worse. Personally I see the problem getting much much worse before it gets better. Millenials will be the majority of the working age population soon if they arent already. When the average new person entering the workforce is putting off buying houses and other items for a 10-20 years while they pay off student debt that is really going to hurt the economy.

>>567983
>Millenials will be the majority of the working age population soon if they arent already.

>>567983
why can't obama just pay off the student loans like he helped the banks?
is that as silly as bailing out the porn industry?

>>569290
For the same reason the banks who made poor decisions got bailed out but the home buyers who made bad decisions didnt.

>>566850
>oil is going down because the cartel wants to end shale.

Who cares? A few months ago it cost me over $30 to fill my tank, and now it costs about $25.

According to your implication, opec dropped prices to make shale production unprofitable which means they have to cut the shit out of their prices to sell the same volume.

Like I said, so what? Our shale fields will always be hanging over them like a sword of damocles which will keep them from ever raising their prices back up.

So whether we get cheap oil from the saudis or cheap oil from our own shale, the consumer is saving money.

>>567686
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>>567418
Underrated post

>>569290
No one just gets loan forgiveness. The government didn't buy anyone's house for them. They threw money at the banks so they could stay solvent long enough to repo everyone's crib and sell them or sit on them.

Same thing will happen with student loans. They'll keep the banks solvent long enough to go through all the normal channels to fuck with your life for not paying, and then a bunch of lib-arts drop outs will have to frequent non-banks who skim off their paychecks less than they would get garnished at a bank.

Gold ? It's a barbarous relic, a 6'000 year old bubble and a useless tooth filling. Why wouldn't it fall?

Silver is losing because industrial development that use less silver is constantly being developped.

Oil is dropping because of the global economy slowing down and because the OPEC wants the US shell dead.

BTW:
Gold is a barbarous relic which was only values because it was used as teeth implants and that is why they started using it for currency. Eventually it was used as hedge because it was first used as currency. But now that practical value is gone since the artificial fillings are superior to gold in every single way so it has no practical use anymore. One thing leads to another, gold slowly dies of. The peak in 2011 is because of le crisis and it was massively bought because of le habenid. Nowadays no sensible central bank herds gold. I mean, Russia and China and the East herds gold, but just look at who's developped, that's right, the west. And they don't herd no gold.

would you guys suggest in buying 2k in silver or do you think its gonna drop more ?

>>570742
It's going to drop more.

>>570745
so id wait about a good 10 months

BUY OIL BUY EVERYTHING BUY BUY BUY
GET A CREDIT CARD AND BORROW ON THAT AND BUY

BUY LOW SELL HIGH
THE STOCKMARKET IS STILL ON BLACK FRIDAY AND CYBER MONDAY PRICES

Source: I'm an Econ expert

>>570746
silver hasnt been this low in like 10 years. even if it goes lower, it wills till go higher than $15

>>566896
>I think a repeat of 2008 is right around the corner to be honest.
because lending incentives aren't monitored like a hawk now

>>569358
>now that practical value is gone
*cough*electronics*cough cough*

>>570865
It was below $10 / ozt (inflation adjusted) 10 years ago.
>>571037
Very little gold is actually used for electronics. It's almost a negligible factor.