/biz/ - Business & Finance

it's our time now

>>56681993
WROOOOM WROOOOM WROOOOM BOBOBOBOBOBOBOOOO!!

>>56681993
Shut up

>>56681999
no
u

do we really need another one of these threads?

>>56681974
https://voca.ro/1dHLIuhJNa8A

I have so much stuff I need to do but I'm waiting until the market opens first.
Also I got two coupons from my tbill ladder today. That felt really good.

good morning, sirs

You'll never know who I was in the previous thread.

>>56682004
no
U

>>56682005
Do you know what a general is

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaaaAaaaaaaaaaaa

>>56681999
>>56682004
calm down. it's too early for this shit

>>56681999
You don't speak like that to my fren. You need to be taught some manners.

We will see - the day is obviously very, very young, but this was the first day in a long, long time where multiple 'bad news' data points dropped, and the market reaction was not an immediate
>yields gap down
>indices gap up
we had the yield spike down, but we didn't have the indices gap up..
if market closes red today, doesn't go strong green by end of day, then today would make the first day where bad news was not good news, that yields getting crushed due to lower economic expectations didn't trigger a risk on rally
It may not seem like much, but it is a HUGE shift in dynamic
As I said, the day is young - who knows, we could close uber green
But this premarket action is the first time in probably 2+ years where bad news has not been good news

GOT ENOUGH PREMARKET DATA? What the fuuuck

>>56682005
Hello newfag!

>>56682014
You were phone.

>>56682030
https://voca.ro/1hEaaBJsaxoy

>>56682029
No he's right. OP shouldn't have baked.

>>56682023
It's 2PM. I need a pump.
>>56682024
I'm gonna school you instead

>>56682032
I never copy and paste these.

I have a sense that most of you will bearly make it out alive this evening.

>>56682039
You can have the site convert them to anchor elements.
Which reminds me, I need to export my settings from my old profile.

>>56682037
School me? I graduated top of my class at Bobo university. I will wipe you the fuck out. I have over 300 shorts.

>>56682026
Shut the fuck up. I can just see how much you're slobbering over the idea of a red day. You shorted the bottom, get over it.

>>56682016
>>56682023
put your hands up where i can see them
RIGHT NOW

>>56682017
>>56682029
I just think its time to stop smg

>>56682033
https://i.4cdn.org/wsg/1698893512637038.webm

>>56682026
interesting point
is the market realizing a recession is not good for stocks afterall?

>>56682052
The only thing short here is your pp
I cast flammenwerfer

>>56682054
Officer there's a fucking bear in my suburb

>>56682053
These morons will grasp at anything now once a red day occurs again like they always do. God forbid they see a red week again.

Tesla calls will do another 3x before weeks over

Good morning sirs

i bet we puuump today too.

>>56682071
Sir! Is this your ID?

>>56682053
Kill. Your. Self.
You attach yourself to the identity of
>mumu
>bobo
instead of trading the market that you have in front of you, seeing the dynamics of the market in front of you
you are reverting back to 10,000 year old human tribalism brain
KILL YOURSELF
Nobody gives a fuck what tribe you're in!!!

Buying more BOIL

>>56682088
keyed asf

>>56682097

>>56682100
All I know for sure is that you're from the tribe that types like a complete fucking faggot and you never shut the fuck up

Can we just chill for a second?
Need to drink my cuppa

>>56682116
Buddy, lurk moar
seriously, lurk moar
this is 4chan text - where each idea is its own individual line
we don't do redd*t text here
if you type like this, which literally every oldfag types like, it makes it easier to read - compared to a block paragraph of text
Seriously, lurk moar

>>56682117

So inflation isnt dead?

Oilsissies, are you alright? Seems like the 79 barrier was a top, not a bottom. You all got played by Biden. When are you gonna start slurping again though? Since nobody apparently needs oil, I'm thinking it could bottom out at 65-70

oil bros?

>>56682127
Why you throwin' shade, gramps
Tribe is life fr newfrens be straight bussin on god

I'm buying COIN. Wish me luck.

>>56682127
Oh that's funny because you're literally the only person in every thread that types like that AND it's always completely retarded permadoomer fud. Lmao lick my taint.

>>56682134
Never was.

Bull bros, we back.

>>56682144
Stacking COIN in my IRA.
Stacking coin in my bitcoin QT.
IRS doesn't get paperwork either way.

>>56682113
WE ONLY GOT A FEW MINUTES BEFORE OPEN

>>56682156
Pink bros

Playing the market open on my recorder.

>>56682134
Look up inflation ex-shelter. Still going up, son. Gasoline has fallen quite dramatically this month though. On the other hand, electricity prices are probably going back up during winter. Inflation is still sticking around. But we are done hiking, that's for sure

>>56682134
Inflation is "dead" (as in, 'official' readings are saying its lower)
but it is "dead" for the 'wrong' reasons - it is dead due to demand getting crushed and the economy being extremely weak reasons
everyone here seems to understand the dynamic of
>a strong, strong economy is bearish, as it means more inflation and restrictive monetary policy!!!
but nobody, literally not a single retarded mumu here understands that the opposite is true
>a rapidly weakening economy results in less inflation, even deflation, due to decreased demand
Reminder: if prices fall, or do not increase at the same rate, projected growth for companies falls, as if the price they sell their goods and services at decreases = less revenue
Let alone the weak economy impacting revenues
We have seen inflation get "crushed" because the economy is that rapidly weakening
(ie. 320K jobs lost last month)

>>56682158
Stonks only go up
Have faith

C3.ai

>>56682170
You only kill inflation by weakening the economy and demand you fucking idiot.

>>56682170
Can you just use a trip so we can filter your dumb shit? Every thread man, it's obnoxious

>>56682170
Here's a counterpoint: increasingly tight labor market because of boomers retiring. Boomers have to spend everything they collected before they croak. It will only accelerate.

>>56682145
Within this thread, there are 3 people before my post, who are typing with the same style. Throughout every single thread, there are 20+ posts with this style.
Any post that is longer than 4 sentences, if they type it out into paragraph form, they are a newfag.
If they type with redd*t spacing, they are a newfag.
If they dedicate time to shitpost, to comment on another person's posting style / formatting, instead of the ideas presented (yourself), they are a newfag
All across 4chan, people type like this. You are a newfag. Kill yourself. Lurk moar. Learn the culture before posting again.

HOLY FUCK
WHAT
THE
FUCK
WAS THAT?!?!

*BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG BANG

>>56682026
Smartest post itt

>>56682170
The economy is most definitely not weak. The f3gg? There ain't a single piece of evidence to suggest we have a weak economy. Sure, we might not be at peak but we definitely do not have a weak economy.
>>56682191
>02
It's over

>>56682191
WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!

>>56682101
I miss the old captchas

>IMPLYING THE MARKET WILL MAKE ANY MORE TODAY
AHAAHAHA

Oh fuck.

I'M GONNA POOOOOMP

>>56682203
>ANY MOVE

>$COST
MORE LIKE
>$LOST
AMIRITE LMAO

>>56682183
>comment on another person's posting style / formatting
isn't that literally what you're doing too? how are you this unaware? shame because you seem like you might be smart otherwise. be cautious as this is likely the only compliment you'll get at least for this thread

BUDDY LOOK AT OIL COMPUTER

>>56682217
Fuckin' gottem

Advice for frens today, the market could up, or down, or sideways. Thanks for listening.

>>56682176
You can also kill it by producing more but that's against the rules apparently.

>>56682176
Yes.. exactly.. lmao. That's the whole point..
Now we are seeing the demand destruction and weakening economy. This is not bullish lmao.
>>56682179
This is happening - literally - and this in itself IS bearish
for example:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-continue-to-ransack-their-retirement-savings-survey-finds-123049227.html
>the highest level in the past five quarters since Bank of America started tracking this data, and up 27% compared to the number of withdrawals during the first three months of the year.
this is bearish.
people relying upon their retirement savings in order to make ends meet, is bearish.
we are in a situation equivalent to a fire in the movie theater - all the boomers need to use their investment savings in order to make ends meet. In other words, there are more sellers than there are buyers. There are more people looking to cash out, need to cash out, than there are buyers. This is not a bullish thing.
>but, but, boomers will cash out, and use that cash to spend and support the economy!!
Lol, you are missing the first part of that sentence
>boomers will cash out
The act of cashing out trumps and crushes any boost from the sales
Cashing out stocks to spend money on goods and services (that are sold by companies of the stocks they sold) is a net negative, and stock prices will go down

>>56682178
Kill yourself.
>OMG!! SOMEONE IS POSTING THINGS I DON'T LIKE!!!
>THEY ARE BEARISH, AND I AM BULLISH!!
>I DON'T LIKE THEM POSTING THINGS I DON'T LIKE!!!
Seriously, kill yourself you mouthbreathing mongoloid retarded newfag faggot
If you don't like ideas being presented that you disagree with, this website is not for you
Go back to your hugbox echo chamber

SOXL and SOXS
>right out of the gate
>no pumping
>ten cent difference
I'm getting a sled. This hill looks rad.

WMT bros WHAT THE FUCK
SHART DONT WANT TO SHOP AT WALMART ANYMORE

>>56682219
If it falls another 1.5-2%, I'm slurping and selling the upswing as fast as I can. Overall, this shit looks so insanely bearish. Then again, could be another FUD. They do love to play with oil

CSCO shill, how are you holding up?

Where is that CSCO faggot lol
I want to laugh in his face.

>>56682232
Dude it's that you A) post retarded permadoomer bullshit that has ALWAYS BEEN WRONG and B) you post it while typing like a fucking faggot. That's all bro. Just don't be retarded and we're good.

>>56682196
>we definitely do not have a weak economy.
buddy
have you followed the ISM / PMI data
have you followed the 320K jobs last month, the same # as we lost during peak covid?
have you seen the retail sales?
have you seen the consumer sentiment reports?
have you seen the small business surveys?
have you seen jobless claim upticks?
have you seen 30 year high auto loan delinquencies?
have you seen the disaster happening in trucking / shipping?
have you seen delinquency / default rates sharply rising across all forms of credit?
>we definitely do not have a weak economy
Lol. You just haven't been paying attention, and/or, have been drinking the kool aid.

What a retarded faggot ass market, always an excuse to dump

>>56682232
I don't know why I should care about this, I'm cash neutral. Either inflation or deflation, I don't care. Cash gets 5% interest, stocks get 10%+ interest.

My investments are with great companies they’ll come back

>>56682251
All of that just points to the return of QE. And before you concoct some doomer fud counterargument - you're wrong

The other guy didn't accept my bid for a khols bond at 7% yield.

my weekly scheduled orders got executed, i'm doubtful. feels like this week they made me buy the top

So you've had mostly a huge wage growth + Covid money + essentially free loans. And that is the average which includes poor people. Remove poor people (i.e., the ones that don't matter to the market) and I'll be you see much much better figures.
Most people that matter to the market have pathetically low mortgage rates that they refinanced during times of low rates. High yields on saving accounts. And high growth rates for higher positions. Yepp, there's a reason why the US economy is so strong.
Even us Europoors have insanely huge buffers since we had 10y of ZIRP and free money.
If you failed to amass wealth during the times after 2009 all the way to 2022, then what the hell is wrong with you?

Property taxes as a thing. My home went up 50% in value apparently, and now I can't afford to pay the property taxes and insurance. Guess what? Property is too expensive to sell now.
Do what?

>>56682259
QE is the doomer position. Letting things crash and recover is the only way it will keep going.

>>56682249
>has always been wrong
I called the summer top to a T. I called the bottom before the relief rally, to a T. I called the top of the relief rally to a T. I called the next bottom at 410 to a T - I advised everyone here to sell $410 puts, $410 put spreads, saying that it was free money to sell puts. I then called for people to stop going long, start selling longs, start building shorts, once SPX hit 4300
I have been right 5 times, wrong one, about positioning.
I have made people here in /smg/ more money through posting trade ideas over the last 5 years, than you have money in your entire portfolio.
I am bearish.
However, I make bullish trades when it makes sense to do so.
You marry yourself to one trade, that you MUST be bullish, that anyone who is bearish is your enemy
You hyperfixate on the poster, instead of the ideas being presented
If it causes you to rage out for me to link an article covering the information I'm presenting, you should seriously kill yourself
Again, if you don't like people presenting ideas that you don't like, this website is not for you
>I DON'T LIKE THE WAY YOU TYPE!!!
KILL. YOUR. SELF.

TLT buy still proving to be a genius move. Wish I had bought some calls instead of shares only though.

Holy shit WSB has better market discussion than this retarded thread. are there any actual traders in here?

>>56682232
>that Yahoo Fin article
I made a comment here not long ago for someone to enjoy the coming cascade of 401k withdrawals and that M2 is being intentionally contracted. Niggers.

>>56682255
I don't think you can generate interest if a shit ton of people cash out

>>56682291
we're all investors here sorry

Yeah, OJ bros, I'm thinking we're back

>>56682258
fuckin'
BASED
A
S
E
D

Is now a good time to start cycling into small caps?

>my weekly puts
Is spy really going to pump today?

>>56682284
Thank you, historic crash tomorrow by the way.

>>56682259
>All of that just points to the return of QE.
as I've said before, I can respect a doomer bull position - if someone is a doomer bull, that they see everything going on, are not in denial about the economy / situation we are in, and are bullish as a result of it (as they think it means more accommodative monetary policy) I am okay with them being a doom bull, as at least they are aware of the reality of the situation
My "complaint" is with the retarded normie bulls, who think >>56682196
>we definitely do not have a weak economy
not understanding that the reason the market is pricing in cuts, is the market pricing in a rapidly, rapidly weakening economy
Doom bull / doom bear we see reality, only doom bull interprets it as bullish - that's fine, matter of opinion
Whether the economy is weak or not is not a matter of opinion, it's objective fact

>>56682284
good lord you're annoying. filtered

>>56682284
Screencapped for my retarded doomer folder

>>56682276
Retail bears fucked themselves last year shorting the bottom so they can't admit that the economy is actually fine

>>56682258
How could the government allow CSCO to collapse??

gold rises
indices are stuck

>>56682306
>The economy isn't weak!!!!!!!
Go outside.

>>56682251
>jobless claim
Anyone that tells me that they can see some sort of trend in the jobless claims is a voodoo hack (pic related).
>Retail sales
>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales-annual
Another hack graph.
I am willing to agree that the economy is not running at full speed, but to say that it's weak is bs. Participation labor rate is pretty high, wage growth is good, consumer spending is very good and has supported the insane GDP figures.
If the GDP figures were bad, I'd agree... but they ain't. The US economy grew at a fast rate and far outpaced any other developed nation (China doesn't count)

FUCK YEAH!!!!
>my hand picked company is going to profitable!
I got 13000 shares and accumulated a good chunk on the dip this morning

>>56682327
inb4 he says the GDP numbers are fake

From the moment I understood the weakness of my unleveraged equities, it disgusted me. I craved the gains and certainty of leverage. I aspired to the purity of the 3x Bull ETF. Your kind cling to your dividends, as though they will not decay and fail you. One day the crude index you call the Shit and Piss 500 will wither, and you will beg my kind to save you. But I am already saved, for the Leverage is immortal… Even in death I serve the Neon Greenissiah.

I don't know what is going on. I want to go short so bad but still mostly cash. Picked up some of the HOOD I sold earlier for a 40 cent discount lmao. Not really doing much today I don't think.. Made like $50 bucks on YANG. Lmao what kind of diplomacy is calling the person you just met a dictator. Biden is such a fucking clown

>>56682026
The Big Unclownning of the market

>everyone pumped wmt and is now being cucked for it

oilbros

Fuck it taking apple profits

>>56682331
I’m a smarty pants!
>AYR.WF

China bros...we lost

buying a stock below 5 dollars is disgusting because it makes you feel poor

>>56682345
The one where you call your opponent scum etc. (haley vs vivek) Indian on indian warfare. Should have called him bloody basterd

>>56682352
Smart. Who the fuck is buying at these levels. A fart in the wind could kill this rally. Was just a bunch of fags closing their shorts and the market blowing way higher on pure greed. It could go higher but I just don't understand risking it instead of going to cash and waiting

>Oil
>Wheat
uh what's going on here?

>>56682351
DEMAND COLLAPSE
DEMAND COLLAPSE
WEEP WOOP
DEMAND COLLAPSE

>>56682327
buddy - it's not me that is "reporting" this uptrend
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-231k-vs-220k-estimate-20231116/
it is now 'mainstream' opinion - it is literally why we saw the dollar (and yields) get crushed today (in addition to the other data releases eg. import prices lower)
>pic related
look at the picture in the article
this is what everyone is noticing, across the markets - that there is an uptrend
>Nobody thinks that there is an uptrend! What are you talking about??
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-dollar-slumps-after-softer-jobless-claims-data-20231116/
>The US dollar softened across the board after claims for jobless benefits rose to 231K from 217K in the week ending November 11. That's a modest miss but the market is extrapolating on the trend.
>the market is extrapolating on the trend
>the market is extrapolating on the trend
What everyone in /smg/ fails to understand is the psychology dynamics around inflation
When there is inflation, inflation expectations rising, spending rises
Why is that?
It's because why would you save money, that will be worth less in the future, to buy something tomorrow, that you could buy for less today?
In other words, why save money to buy a car for $10,000, when tomorrow it could cost $11,000?
This causes a "spending my way out of inflation" effect - which we saw over the summer, which is why we had strong data over the summer
However.. if all of this spending is done on credit (which it was) it allows for immediate spending, but less spending in the future
We are now "in the future" where they have to spend less - and we are seeing it already, eg. negative retail sales for October
October / November / December sales are much, much more important than lets say, March retail sales. Companies make or break in the 4th quarter.

tomorrow there will be a nationwide false flag operation directed against zoomers in the United States and perhaps Europe. it will happen during market hours, breakers will be triggered, the market will close prematurely. do with this information what you will.

>>56682396
buy tesla

>>56682352
Hah, I remember when some bobobros were rambling about how Apple was gonna fall to hell since apparently nobody buys smartphones anymore and that the consumer was gonna get crushed and nobody would buy Apple stuff.
Look at Walmart, Amazon, and so on... the average consumer today would rather cut off his beniz than stop consuming.

>>56682387
Only the strongest economy in the history of the world!

Let's just all go ahead and stop feeding this retard, yeah? Come on guys you can do it

>>56682352
>he didn't buy apple so low that the dividend is delicious and will never sell
It's over.

>>56682405
Lmao. Multiple people responding to me going
>Wow, only smart post in this thread
>Wow, good observation
>Yeah that is weird!
You're just literally a retard, who is married to the bull trade, incapable of observing any information that challenges your narrative
Anything that challenges your narrative causes you immense psychological pain, so then you lash out.
You should really lurk moar.
Again, this website is probably not for you, if it makes you this upset that people have a differing opinion than you.

Another blood green close

>>56682389
>This causes a "spending my way out of inflation" effect - which we saw over the summer, which is why we had strong data over the summer
>However.. if all of this spending is done on credit (which it was) it allows for immediate spending, but less spending in the future
>We are now "in the future" where they have to spend less - and we are seeing it already, eg. negative retail sales for October
>October / November / December sales are much, much more important than lets say, March retail sales. Companies make or break in the 4th quarter.
This.

Also, short Cisco and VMWare. Companies are going to cheaper alternatives.

>>56682423
my DCA for apple is $40

>>56682427

I love it when the handful of obnoxious faggot bears upvote each other, really reinforces the argument that they're reddit tourists

I'm buying only a little oil at a time because timing this drop is hard

I'm buying a lot of oil because timing this drop is easy

Markets are healing

The economy is strong!!
Yeah, that's why oil is down almost 4% today. Lol.

The stockmarket has never in time ever run this much on autopilot.

>>56682396
people still won't enlist for your zogwars

>closed my MSFT and INTC positions back in August
>MSFT at $321 and INTC at $33.5

I was expecting a market correction :/

>>56682396
oof, yup this ones going in my bobo cringe compilation

>>56682444
>work for a fortune 50 dealing with global real estate and the company's entire network infrastructure.
>post what I'm seeing directed as we close campuses
>faggot bear
You do you brother. We're just trying to beat our revised (down) numbers.

>>56682389
I understand your points and I do agree to some degree. I also think this quarter will be the one to show whether the consumer truly is as strong as suggested by the statistics.
That is why I also think the market is gonna keep riding that wave until Christmas (santa rally) and I will probably sell. I am fully of the opinion that we have had a strong economy thus far but we have probably reached a peak and it could drop from here on now.
But honestly who knows? These supposedly "restrictive" rates have shown to be lucrative for mega caps for example.

So in all honesty, yes this quarter's spending will be important. But even if it were to get worse, I don't expect it to fall that much. I think the economy is more resilient than bobos assume it is. I just can't see another 2022 slump happening in the markets

>>56682405
he's contributed more than your faggot ass, who has done nothing but cry about posters you don't agree with.
>>56682196
the job numbers are nearly always bullshit. Just go look around at any career discussion forum, we are in a white collar recession already. Tech, finance, banking, marketing, business services, management, logistics, HR, recruiting, and more are laying off/downsizing. The only jobs actually hiring are medical, gov, and hospitality/retail. Trades is still a mixed bag, but the white collar layoffs will eventually destroy enough demand that it filters down to blue-collar.
If you've got a decent paying job now, don't quit or get laid off, unless you want to switch to wiping boomer asses in a nursing home or taking orders at taco bell.

>All these cheap regional bank bonds.
6%+ yield is so tempting.

GIVE ME THE POOOOOOOOMP

I bought calls yesterday after all the bull run santa rally hype

I hope I make some money, as I do not have much and I went all in

SPY to 460 by December right?

Housing market bros...

What the FUCK was I thinking slurping XOM

>>56682497
>>56682483
>Bloo bloo bloo all of my boomer-era paradigms that began before the dollar was fiat and the internet existed are crumbling!!!!!!!!
>Surely there's no stopgap and it's all just going to FAIL!
>The people in charge of policy don't see it coming but I DO!!!!
Lick
My
Balls

>>56682500
Lmao. I feel like this post had to have been written by shill hands.
Do NOT buy regional bank bonds.
This is literally the most toxic asset you can possibly buy in all of the market today.
If you were looking for something to short, it would be regional bank bonds.
Literally, regional bank bonds are the equivalent of the subprime mortgage CDOs in '08
Regional banks are going to blow up, many, many of their bonds are going to become worthless
Literally any other investment right now would be better than regional bank bonds - setting your money on fire would be better than regional bank bonds, as at least some of the money wouldn't burn / would be salvageable

>>56682514
>The people in charge of policy don't see it coming
anon, pull your head out of your ass so you stop huffing your own farts with the rest of the people 'in charge'

>>56682525
Oh yeah don't misinterpret that, I'm not buying it.
It's tempting the way a promiscuous woman is; ie a bad idea.

>>56682480
All the while housing prices have gone up. Lel, are people seriously expecting the housing markets to fall? Considering how constricted the supply is right now, no way.

>>56682547
It doesn't matter how constricted the supply is if people flat out don't have money to pay.

>>56682514
>The people in charge of policy don't see it coming
https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/15/business/worldbusiness/15iht-fed.4605930.html
>Feb. 15, 2007
>The chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke, has given Congress an upbeat view of the U.S. economy, predicting that unemployment was likely to remain low over the next two years even as inflation declined slightly.
>Bernanke's comments Wednesday, which suggested that he is comfortable with interest rates at current levels, immediately lifted U.S. stock markets. His testimony soothed investors
Yeah. Lmao. They have SUCH a great track record about this sort of thing.
L M A O.
Go lick their boots some more, I'm sure if you clean their boots off with your tongue they'll give you a nickel for your troubles

its not time to slurp oil yet. maybe late winter early spring.

buy soxl you fucking idiots

I posted in some gen x hate thread lol. But I fomoed into intel and will probably regret it later. At least the divvies look nice

>>56682553
>if people flat out don't have money to pay
they do, your own personal poverty isnt the countrys problem

>>56682558
>oil shidding and farding due to global economic weakness
>global economy is shidding and farding, not just USA
See guys, this is the time you should be buying semiconductors!! An industry highly reliant upon economic activity, especially smart phone and auto activity, both of which are cratering!!
Lmao.
Short SOXX. Listen to Burry.

Lmao only ever posting mainstream media links as your "proof" has to be either the most retarded thing in the world or the most disingenuous shilling imaginable.

>when your EU index moves 1:1 with the SPX
Just fuckin nuke europe, US or Russia, one of them, please do it.

took a loss this morning, parted with some snapchat to pay the piper and it pains me greatly. cannot risk a margin call though. chinese stocks down 10% is a staggering amount on a day when they "should" be up that much. the market is not agreeing with my thesis, have to derisk. just want to warn everyone they might want to think about doing the same thing because an unpleasant surprise may be on the horizon.

>>56682474
yang is doing alright tho

>>56682571
Lmao! KILL YOURSELF.
It's an article covering the comments Bernanke made back in 2007! Lmaooo
>ughhh it's NYT!!!
the source has nothing to do with the comments Bernanke made! Lmao.
>the NYT was lying!! Bernanke didn't say that!!!
seriously, what the fuck are you even trying to say
You're so fucking retarded dude
Go lick the boots of your masters

Oh, hey there, guess who's a leveraged to the hilt bear now

>>56682547
>He fell for the low supply meme

>OIL
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

>>56682433
>Companies are going to cheaper alternatives.
You mean fucking OpenStack?
No they're not. TCO is way worse.

Oil bros I want to die

>>56682345
>BOIL KANG
>not buying BOIL today
NIGGER
I
G
G
E
R

>>56682474
The real correction is between January and March. We're pumping into the end of the year.

>>56682579
U still hold QBTS? Nigger you need to cut your losses. Remeber I told you to sell when you broke even? Remeber I told you to sell SILC when you broke even. Now look at it, it will never rise 60% to make uip for your loss

lol

>>56682617
BIBI NEEDS TO START THE SECOND ARAB - ISRAELI WAR NOW!!!!!!

Oilbros I think this might be the botton

>>56682633
Is he literally just an exit liquidity broker?

Asking price of uranium just jumped like $1.50 overnight. Buy it. Or don't, I'm not your financial advisor.

>>56682004

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/walmart-wmt-earnings-q3-2024-.html
>In the U.S., we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come and while that would put more unit pressure on us, we welcome it, because it’s better for our customers,” he said.
>the big-box retailer struck a cautious tone with its outlook after it saw consumer spending weaken at the end of the period
Reminder: deflation is not bullish, as we warned you yesterday
Reminder: this holiday season is going to be a bloodbath, Q4 earnings are going to be god awful
Reminder: retailers have too much inventory, are used to excess savings covid times, and will now have to mark down inventory and eat losses, as well as less sales overall
It's not just me telling you this.. now Walmart is too..

>>56682641
If this isn't the bottom It's literally over for us...

>>56682023

haha yep! its another fake and gay rally!

cant wait for the big one bobros... im so tired of waiting...

Should I just buy a bunch of Uranium penny stocks and hope some go up in the next few years.

>>56682645
Something like that.

Need Lindsey Graham to threaten bombing Iranian refineries again.

>>56682030

>>56682669
That's the genius behind URNJ. You can just buy a whole sack of pennyshit all at once.

Goodbye

SPY 453 today. Trust.
It's had a good skirt of the bottom range; in 10 minutes we're topping. Get ready to swing. I have spoken.

>>56682659
>a period of deflation

As overbought as this market is, it still ain't falling. Holy crap... it's embedding and we're just gonna continue along the bollinger eh? Seriously though, can't it drop at least one day? This is beyond ridiculous

>>56682680

>>56681974
Rolls-Royce is above 3 dollars, you all did holds onto your spicy rycey, right?

>>56682612
There are alternatives and companies have their own products that they purchased during COVID.

What is a good average yield per year in stocks consistently over- say - 15 years time?

Why didn't you invest in Toyota Biz? It is literally the most reliable and best-selling car brand in the world. I doubt that now is a good time to buy, but if they had done it a year ago, or just 6 months ago, the profit would be over 100%

>>56682668
The market was on a solid downtrend from August 1st to October 27th and you're asking for more?

>>56682729
>There are alternatives
I'm not aware of them.
Dumping your H1B retards on a box and telling them to play nice with qemu-kvm isn't really an alternative.

>>56682725
why the fuck is a car's stock, whose brand is synonymous to wealthy and rich people driving them, just spme pathetic penny stock? shouldn't it be in the triple digits on average?

>>56682740
8%

>>56682740
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio#analysisResults
Mess around with this website
Look at the performance of SPY over any time frame as your benchmark
eg. set the year to 2008 (15 years in your example)
see how SPY would return over that period, look at the average rate of return it shows you
that is the number you are looking for - as if you aren't able to get this yield from another stock, why would you invest in it and not just invest in SPY
SPY = 'the market' benchmark
when someone says "the market averages 8% a year!" they're talking about SPY (S&P500)

>>56682629
i bought qbts at .50 and sold with a 3 handle. i will never "lose" money there. and yes, silc will see $100 someday and nothing an idiot like you says will ever make me sell anything. and as long as you're thinking about me, open up the INTC chart and meditate on what it must be like to be smart and succesful like me and pat gelsinger. not gonna waste any more time with you, gonna hold a strategy session with my top client (mommy) to figure out how to make even more money.

>>56682663
We're gonna be alright

Oil...

oilbros we are starting to heal

>>56682740
Please buy XOM it has a great dividend

>>56682751
its a jet engine company reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

>>56682691
Anon were just crabbing today

>>56682746
>downtrend, get's reslurped in 2-3 weeks
That's literally mentally ill

>>56682769
I was wrong

>>56682783
I said I have spoken

>>56682773
>safe investments
Doesn't exist, Benny.

>DXY down 0.34%
>10yr yield down 10bps
and we are flat..
see
>>56682026
still early
and one day does not a trend make
still notable, that with yields crushed, dollar down, we are not getting the risk on relief rally
market is parsing through weak economy = weak stocks for the first time in a long, long time

>>56682101
boy that turned into a massive mistake immediately. the BOILtard drags another anon into the grave just like the soxl shill of days past.

Seems like they are doing a push with INTC, like every article is trying to push buy.

>>56682751
The absolute price of a stock is almost meaningless.

>>56682820
Fuck I really liked INTC.
I guess I should take profits.

Here's your organic price action you ordered, enjoy

>>56682751
yeah! friend! you are onto something! isn't it crazy that autozone stock (ticker AZO) is $2,675??
Apple stock is only $190!
How is this possible, that a company like autozone has a higher stock price than Apple???
INSANE!!! What a world we live in...
:^) :^) :^)

SPY will be at 430 next week

>>56682838

>>56682750
>I'm not aware of them.
Obviously. To be fair, I wasn't either, but we just had an all hands meeting this morning and this is the news that was announced. I'm not a dev/coder/etc. I don't dictate policy or what we purchace. I move the money and make the change happen.
>>56682751
Price per stock is irrelevant unless it's been delisted. Percentage gains is all that matters. Almost took a job with them, but didn't think it would have lasted that long so I passed on it. Would rather be underpaid by a stalwart in tech that isn't based in cuckland or commiefornia.

>oil

I can’t catch this knife

>>56682838
I- I said I have sp-spoken

>go long
>market pushes up a few points then sells off
>go short
>market drops a few points, then starts pushing back up fast

Why is NVDA going up? Why won't it crash already?! End this clown gay market already

i buy a call :)

>>56682867
It's been a vicious crab this morning

>>56682867
Trade the futures. High volatility is a goldmine for scalpers.

they know what he said

This market sucks.

>>56682881
That's literally all we seem to get in the indices anymore unless you trade with fucking massive stops and can catch the news plays
>>56682887
That's exactly what I'm trading, the market just immediately reverses me as soon as a bar closes

I own BOIL again at 48.

No, I will NOT buy your bags.
Good luck.

Why is everyone in such a sad mood today?

I already said I bought calls, what is the big deal?

Is this the sell off?

does anybody have an isis bobo edit, I feel like it's relevant at this time

>>56682276
>home went up 50% in value apparently, and now I can't afford to pay the property taxes and insurance
take 'equity
>lose to the sheriff, or lose to the bank

>>56682820
The latest news is that Buffett is loading a secret new position.
My bet is that it's probably Intel.

>long volatility

>>56682902
only good time to buy boil is below 50, unlike our resident BOILtard who shills the thing in the high 50's low 60's to impoverish anons.

>>56682917
>Wells run dry

>>56682916
nah

>>56682898
What signs are you looking for? If you trade the average of the day and check your VWOP you just have to be patient.
Try to make a fan when you're long on the way down and vice versa. If you roll it's a higher risk of getting burned but you only need a few ticks to make it out green.
Doesn't really matter what market it is.

>>56682916
no way he's passing on an oil dip.

>>56682920
I always shilled the 50. It's magic resistance for some reason

>>56682916
I'd say AMD

recent RTX contracts
Gallium Nitride, TF33, PT6A-34, PW980, A380
look at that short interest

>>56682929
I'm looking for continuations of trends on a longer timeframe. Trying to go based on 5 and 15 minute charts while trading on a 1 minute chart. I don't look to inverse the market, rather go with what I believe the direction to be on the longer timeframes. If I see the 15 minute chart is going down while we're printing red on the 5 minute, I'm going to be hopping in short.

>>56682841
Whoa, source m8? Joogle ain't giving me anything. Btw, anyone notice how worse google has become at finding images? It's really quite terrible

>>56682916
>Buffett is loading a secret new position
it's GRND. he doesn't want the SEC to disclose this, as he and Charlie don't want anyone to know their (lovers) secret.

>>56682525
>thass alot words for
risk premium

>>56682964
I have noticed that they've introduced auto-generated results. Quite sad actually. I hope we see a return to grace.

>>56682969
6% is not even remotely enough.

>>56682969
if the bonds were 'accurately' priced to reflect the risk premium of hundreds of regional banks blowing up, the yields would be 10%+

>>56682981
If we could tell what's true and fake with 100% accuracy that would be weird, but the law of averages is very strong.

>>56682961
So candles going against your bet shouldn't be a massive surprise then, right?
Unless you're scalping seems like you're worrying too much.
>t. I'm long on S&P breakeven at 4523 and a tick. 3,4K in the hole but holding.

>>56682814
>discount BOIL
>mistake
Just bought a lot more, and prepared to buy a *lot* more, fag.

>>56682991
Cool, you're only down $3 a pop in one hour's time, warren buffet.

There is literally no reason not to buy oil at these prices.

do you guys think baggot could knock rocker out in a fight?

>>56683001
even with drastic oil cuts, even with a war in the middle east, even with everything being done to 'support' oil prices and make them move higher, oil is still getting crushed
that is how weak the (global) economy is.. think about that
that the economy is weaker than 3 million BPD cuts effect, or middle east uncertainty.. that's a VERY weak economy..

>>56683008
My monies on rocker.

WHAT FUCK THAT WAS

>>56682997
Once it gets to certain levels I always start buying in small to catch any "surprise" upside, but save plenty of dry powder for buying down accordingly. This is exactly what I have said over and over, fag.

>>56682990
It isn't, but I don't understand why so many traders seem to be going with limit orders when the market will continue trends anyway. It's like the market on days like this is just trying to tag people out and then continue going in whatever direction. I'm trading NQ with 40 point targets

>>56682820
Don't slip in the manufactured bullshit. They are pawns of Larry Fink, and you'd have lost money betting on their stock for the last five years.

>>56683020
sure you do bud.

>>56683017
another good point

>>56683008
No - Rocker has ham physics, where even if Baggot were to hit a very good punch full force, the mass of Rocker's body alone would absorb the blow
plus, Rocker has fat hands.. fat hands = fat punches

I don't like it when stocks go down...

>>56682284
How would you short the market? Any specific stocks?

>>56682933
He doesn't need to be secret about oil, because no one gives a fuck. He's publicly set a price floor on OXY.
I wouldn't be surprised if he outright buys some cheap refinery assets within the next year or two as they prove their resilience, but many commodities related names are too small to move the needle for him, and don't have the long term pricing power to fit his style.

>>56682953
Also possible, but unlikely due to current price. I think it's probably some reasonably valued tech pick, whatever it is. Speculating towards INTC because of the CHIPS act. Buffett has shown in the past that he's willing to profit off dumb subsidies.

if you had $25k cash how much would you use to slurp the current WMT micro-dip?

>>56682997
>>56683020

Based BOIL enjoyer educating anons. It touches 50 enough that I wait for entries around there

>>56683027
Yeah, search the archives, niggerfagtard.

>>56683050
ranked by weight of shorting, first = short the most
>XLK (tech)
>XLY (consumer discretionary)
>XLC (communications)
>XLF (financials)
>XLI (industrial)
>XLRE (real estate)
>XLB (materials)
>XLU (utilities)
>XLP (consumer staples)
>XLV (healthcare)
>XLE (energy)
if this confuses you, look up these sectors breakdown by their weightings / holdings
for example, XLY, the https://www.sectorspdrs.com/mainfund/xly
23.65% = AMZN
18.42% = TSLA
if you look at these sectors and their weights, you can extrapolate which stocks I am the most short (and why)
if you want to make it nice and easy with less diversified shorts, short SOXX, just as Burry is doing

>>56682525
No reason to buy regional bank bonds at 6% if you can buy new issue MBS rolls through MBTA or intermediate treasuries at 4.whatever%

>>56683055
Why would you? They are literally saying the consumer isnt spending

>>56683062
Yeah, I wait for around there to do the big injections but get left behind enough that I try to start a seed as early as possible so I can at least catch *something* from random poomps.

>>56683055
>retail
god no

Alibaba got wrecked today

>>56682751
>Rolls Royce
>car stock
TOURISTS GET OUT NOW!!!!!!

hellofresh more like hellobag

>>56683097
Good. Fuck China.

>>56683055
I'd put $1k in WMT puts expiring march and the rest in treasuries.
If you're feeling bullish buy calls expiring before January.

>>56683075
because the past has shown that blue chips are invincible and will inevitably go up to new ATHs withing a few months
meta was a great example

also MSM will spew out some articles that lower consumer spending is priced in

>>56683097
communist sympathizers get what they deserve

>>56683072
thank you

>>56683109
how far out do you trust the Yellen

>>56683114
>

>>56683162
Not more than a year or so desu.
Thankfully short dated treasuries are still above fed funds at least.

>>56683072
>shorting tech
>long oil
ouch

stocks dumping, yields dumping, crypto dumping, oil dumping, where's the money going

>>56683185
Nope - short both
just short oil less, much, much more allocated short tech
when markets crash, all stocks are affected

It's for your own good mumu, just let it happen

>>56683198
Cash, probably.

>>56683203
That's a good boy!

>>56683207
but what about inflation my man

>>56683198
gold is up

>>56683198
>yields dumping
>where's the money going

>>56683201
Oil stocks always dump hardest and fastest

>>56683232

>>56683232
kek, noticed right after sending it

>>56683232
The treasury market looks pretty illiquid lately, almost every day for maybe a month now it's gapped up or down by more than 1%.

Baking

>>56683114

>>56683221
Exactly, it's being lit on fire. Is it setting in yet?

>>56683237
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/spearnrevalgrpeg.pdf
it is not as overvalued as tech, nowhere even close - still very underweight
% basis during the crash, XLK will fall far more than XLE will

someone buy my soxl240119c30 calls for 1.25
thanks

Right now you're at the denial stage mumu. According to the theory, you should be entering into the anger stage about 5 S&P points lower.

>>56683272
Okay

>Red day
>/smg/ posting rate down by 50%
But of course

>>56682721

>>56683286
>overvalued
lol. If you think this matters, you don't understand anything. Last year's P/E ratio is not today or tomorrows value.
When the price of oil declines, the apparent value suddenly disappears. Particularly true for the marginal producers. When this happens, the whole futures curve tends to dump. It creates a setup where there is no price being offered at any point in the future where these marginal players can earn a profit or even survive. The "value" at that point is purely a call option on the odds that futures might someday rebound.

In order for the market to enter an environment where tech stocks could really crash, oil stocks must always get clobbered long before that.
Look at fall 2018, for example. The current setup is quite similar to back then.

As for why the oil price must crash first, it's simple. Healthy consumers consume oil. Producers consume oil to produce goods.

>>56683198
DXY hit an EMA on the weekly.
Buy the DXY dip today.

>Oil: -4.4%

>>56682101
Why buy BOIL when you can get a mid-cap natural gas company?

>>56683345
It's a great day.

>>56683377
Because you're better off investing in no-cap companies.

>>56683365
Ok. We will see.
XLK current price $182.13
XLE current price $82.67
Will check back in 3-6 months, and see which saw a larger % loss

>>56683377
NATGAS companies do not fluctuate in line with NATGAS futures. Why would I want to buy something random and arbitrary?

Sell.

>>56683398
>check back in 3-6 months
I don't think you're understanding what I'm saying.
Oil will crash first. That doesn't mean that tech won't crash. It just won't be first.

Also XOP would be a better short, more shitcos. Already 14% below highs set a few months ago. Oil price kept rising while oil stocks stalled out. This was the tell.

>>56683365
You’re forgetting that “marginal producers” all got wiped out in 2020 and now have virtually no debt. Pretty much all of them are pretty heavily hedged and are profitable >$50.
Of course I’m purely talking about extraction. Refining profits probably fucked.

>>56683440
>Oil will crash first. That doesn't mean that tech won't crash. It just won't be first.
I don't care which crashes first lol.. I care which will crash the most.
I'm not going to more heavily weight shorting companies within XLE heavier than I am shorting tech companies, just because the oil companies may fall sooner
If anyone is basing their allocations around what will happen immediately next they are missing the bigger picture and the bigger move - nothing wrong with this trading strategy (short term swinging)

BLOW ME TOP

>>56683478
>>56683478
>>56683478
new
>>56683478
>>56683478
>>56683478
new

>>56683345
red days are for buying
green days for shitposting

Are we gonna get max pained tomorrow? It's a lot lower than where we at is all

Fuckin' BBBY comes up under:
>>>/biz/smg

>>56683487
Thank you, I always forget about opex.

>>56683467
>You’re forgetting that “marginal producers” all got wiped out in 2020
Not at all. Check out VTLE, for example.
The industry is better than it was, but there's still plenty of trash. Also plenty of hidden decay as quality inventory runs out.

>>56682388
>Plane starts calling me a retard

GUSH just hit under $32, may be a good buy.

I'm gonna switch to bear tomorrow and we're gonna have another massive green dildo coming to fuck the turn coats.

We're already at 450 why would we not retest 460? Any bros know?