/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56589047
You know what, I got you bro. An example so simple even your brain could grasp it. Here goes cuz you need help:
Let's say I have $100 and I want 3x returns so I borrow $200. But interest rates are plumb fucking retarted I have to pay 10% daily on the borrowed money. So instead of being 3x leveraged I'm only 2.8x since I had to pay $20. That's $80 principal and $200 of borrowed money. But here's the rub, I'm contractually obligated to return 3x of sp500. So what do I do? I borrow an additional $22, pay the 10% on that and add the $20 to the $280 bringing the amount of money in the market to $300. That's $78 of principal and $222 borrowed funds. I borrowed $222 and my principal has been reduced to $78 so I'm a bit more than 3x leveraged, but my contractual obligation of returning 3x to my account holders will be fulfilled since I get the effect of 3x leverage on the account. What is the "cost"? Increased risk of ruin from the higher leverage
Do you get it now how ProShares can return 3x to its shareholders almost regardless of how interest rates fluctuate?

>>56589047
Semiconductors are obsolete. I'm running fullconductors now.

>>56589083
Fullconductors are old news. I only buy 3xleverageconductors.

>>56589083
Those depreciate twice as fast though. Ask crypto miner baggies how that works out.

krugman smg bake was better

the future could have been different
you chose this

>>56589083
>fullconductors

>tfw when im no longer an anti-semite conductor
>tfw when im now a anti-faggot conductor

>>56589093
There was insufficient post liquidity. That's the free market at work.

None of this retarded shit matters, when SOXL is $50+ next year and bears are obliterated there will be no one around to argue that buying something below $7 that went to $50+ was a bad idea.

>LETF arguing
>semis shitposting
>China doomposting
/smg/... home

Reminder that there's a whole galaxy of 3x leveraged ETFs beyond SOXL: https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-etfs/

>futures
>yields
>dollars
>oil
wow it's fucking nothing

>>56589112
NAIL is one of my favorites, god its chart looks like dogshit but it can be pretty predictable. Still second guessing myself on an entry point for TMF. Just got out of BULZ but it can be decent.

Why are people still buying soxl.

>>56589139
Theyre not, they are just bagholding.

>>56589093
>>56589100
Ah, what the hell. I'm still chuckling at this.

>>56589112
If you hold bobo leveraged ETFs, you're actually getting paid 5% on the swaps right now.

>>56589147
I deeply appreciate him as a human shitpost

>futures

>>56589139
In a world where BOILers exist, SOXL sisters are above reproach.

>>56589139
>>56589145
Are you seriously going to be wondering why people held SOXL when it's up 300% from where it is now?

>>56589200
Are you buying?

>>56589209
Always

>>56589217
Well that's retarded, but you do you.

>Crude futures

im worried. i went all in on a position before earnings. im stupid.

should have waited after earnings. but if line goes up then im lucky gambler

>>56589112
BOIL and KOLD have such regular, wide swings they mog all those with only 2x.

>>56589252
How much have you made trading those swings?

Welp looks like my gov will still be in the statehouse another 4 years. Yay! 10% pay hike looking good. Plus he did a good job so there's that to.

>>56589238
>OXY posted a tremendous beat on the day oil traders decided to take miles of bbc up their buttholes.
Yeah those crazy futures.

>>56589258
Enough to buy a jumbo bag of GV nuggets with zero hesitation, nigger.

what will powell say tomorrow?
captcha SPYGYJ

>>56589282
He will shift from "higher for longer" to "carefully lowering"

>>56589282
aren't they supposed to be in a blackout period two weeks either side of FOMC meetings?

>>56589282
>I've been doing better with my barre chords
>Also 6.5% incoming you cunts

>>56589282
>hikes 200 bps
>*pages Yellen*
>*leans into the mic*
>"who runs barter town?"

>>56589267
and announced a joint venture on carbon capture
just wait 'til the full dividend comes back

>futures

>>56589231
>It's retarded because it just is!!!!!!
Seethe more. You also up 70% ytd or???

>>56589264
you live in KY?

>>56589453
yes, KO boomer is from kentucky

>>56589149
So it's like a CD except with massive risk of loss that is substantially more likely than not to come true.

This is your brain on bearism

>>56589461
I feel sorry for your people. Most fucked public pension system in the US

>>56589395
whys an oil company investing in carbon capture schemes

>>56589443
>70%
Lol, youre a 4fig account arnt you?

>>56589495
green subsidies behbeh

>>56589467
>This is your brain on bearism

>>56589453
>>56589461
Lol . 20% of smg is ky

>>>/tv/191846208

Sister molesters stay in your general

so I got bred by oilbearniggers today and lost 50% value on a xom call I bought
so now I am doubling down on memes and bought a put against COOP for a mortgage based coup

>>56589512
Why would that matter, if he's up 70% then he's making excellent use of his capital no matter how much it is. Nigger.

>>56589481
it's bad for sure
but the pandemic funds we stole sure turned things around
Mayfield is fucked though

>>56589083
> He doesn't use quantum conductors
grim.

>>56589538
How much for a mom and her questionably aged daughter in KY?
I need a vacation spot

>>56589536
Lol, sure i guess. You going to go up to the best traders in the world and show off your...percent?

Best advice I can give to new job-seekers hungry for corporate cock

>>56589565
I don't give the slightest fuck what "the best traders in the world" think about me. The one and only value I put on them is any information they might have that will help me to improve as a trader, otherwise why would I give a fuck for their opinions on anything else?

>>56589554
I had a friend in college who would occasionally tell the story of how he had to pull a gun out of a suicidal friend's mouth while there was a naked 13 year old girl hiding under the kitchen sink that said individual with the gun met on the internet and invited over.

Basically all you need is booze.

>>56589481
Not anymore. Due to loads of covid federal money the state has a billion+ surplus budget rainy day fund. Also they passed sports gambling which 90% of that money taken in goes to the pensions.

>>56589585
Point is percentages dont matter. You would know that if your beyond a 4fig account

>>56589565
>>56589512
What a dumb fucking attitude to have about trading. Genuinely you have to be coping for something, trying to talk shit about someone else almost doubling their money in 11 months. My account is five figures and I'm sure as hell not complaining about having like 6 months of expenses appear out of thin air. All I had to do was ignore all the doomer faggots on here.

>>56589532
please tell me you're not the "why not buy options if you're 100% sure a stock will go up" anon from earlier

>>56589610
ngmi

>>56589047
>5% borrow costs
>up 100%
oh no!
anyway

>>56589495
DAC technologies are a smokescreen so oil companies can continue to pollute. granted there are *other* carbon capture solutions (not talking about just planting trees btw) but they can't be easily milk funding, R&D, subsidies, and excuses with those solutions.

KR was out of the good ramen that I like, so I tried a different brand, and it was pretty good. However, it had FIVE separate packets of ingredients to add in... That's a little too much I think

>>56589614
>trying to talk shit
Lol dont brag about worthless gains then
>>56589623
>ngmi
Better go tell some of best traders in the world their sub 20% is shit

>this fuckin general amiright

>>56589632
It seems like a stupid thing to spend money on

this run does NOT have short term legs btw. you've been warned

>>56589649
Me on the bottom left

>>56589565
are you retarded? the entire point of investing is to get the highest percent increase

>>56589651
Well, if it makes money (thanks to government subsidies and policies);
Allows you to claim to be carbon nutral to meet bullshit government initiatives;
provides a constant source of CO2 that can be used for fracking and extraction,
it gets a little less stupid.
It drives me nuts though, that they just don't set up shop at power plant stacks though where the concentration is much higher than ambient air. Make extraction a little more efficient.

>>56589670
Oh really?
>Im 200% up on my SHMP!!

>>56589686
yes really stupid nigger do you know how math works

>>56589392
last year, it felt like yellen was challenging j powell. it was fucking jokes cause why the fuck is yellen holding conferences..

>>56589139
i bought 2,000 shares of SOXL last week lmfao
what are you gonna do about it?

>>56589699
Whats 200% of $1?

>>56589610
Percentages always matter, but so do absolute dollar gains.
4-5 fig accounts are playing a different ballgame since they can comfortably borrow from future income. If they go bust it's a quick rebuild.

>>56589715
3.50

>>56587577

how embarrassing is it that /pol has better financial discussions than smg

>>56589582
I've got an video interview on Friday, does this mean I should I wear a yarmulke?

>>56589139
>>56589708
>SOXL YTD: +100%
>FNGU YTD: +287%

Lum has been on her knees, sucking dick. And not in a good way.

>>56589738
when you live day to day, moment to moment, when do you have time to worry about something happening in a fortnight?

>>56589715
whats 200% of 100,000 vs 2% of 100,000?
do the math nigger

>>56589648
if percent doesn't matter why don't you go make -100% then? your big account should cover it

of course we both know that obviously makes no sense which is why percent return is the standard way to measure trading success

(you're also obviously right that +70% is an extreme outlier probably created by behavior more like gambling rather than trading or investing; +20% is a strong performance in the long run; account size is almost irrelevant to this)

>>56589738
Schizo two more weeks, rumor is the sky is falling, is not better discourse than /smg/

Futures looking really boring right now...come on, do something, crash, anything.

God I wish I had an office coworker/broker BBW come sit on my lap and let me play around with her belly and hips while watching stock futures together.

>>56589648
>70% gains is worthless
Alright bro I know you shorted the bottom but that's big time retarded

Also
>the best traders
>20%
Are you legitimately mentally challenged?

>>56589753
It's almost like no one could have guessed that retail faggots would suck Big Money's cock and buy their puts on semis for three months despite literally zero bad news for the sector

>mortgage markets

https://youtu.be/9Ngab-mbbi0?si=zBfFY5q_dFLCWAOf

>>56589582
>that pic
What a fucking clownworld that they can say shit like this and nobody bats an eye
I wish boomers and glowies could get their mouths off Jewish cock for 2 seconds

>also
Green tomorrow. Take it to the bank.

>car markets

https://youtu.be/47md9m2aBTY?si=kUiBE3GkDUy8jJK4

>Credit card debt likely to rise over $2 trillion by 2024 summer

https://youtu.be/lSrTJpYg9ic?si=4OKJJ1c1-tiFQYyJ

>>56589772
How hard is it to make 200% on 100k vs 1$?
Like do you guys really not get the point? Its easy to gamble with small change, you shouldnt be running those risks with actual monies.
>>56589776
Saying they dont really matter for bragging. Saying you made 50k ytd carries more weight.

I went to a Chase bank (JPM) today and the tellers name was Larry Gentile. I could hardly keep it together.

Woodpeckers are assholes. Birds in general are assholes, but especially woodpeckers.

>>56589791
>implying they should be rolling in 70%
Yeah they are just doubling 8 fig portfolios year after year. Grow up retard lol

>>56589843
i wish i had a bird to peck my wood

Why all the hit pieces on Dalio lately? A book, umpteen articles in normie media, interviews with the book author on finance YouTube channels, etc. Is it cuz Dalio is highly successful in finance but forgot to be born to members of the tribe? And why all of a sudden

>>56589831
>How hard is it to make 200% on 100k vs 1$?
The probabilities are the same.
Actually it's better for 100k because there are things you can't do with $1.

PLTRannies...

>>56589893
Generally woodpeckers are capable of some damage so you definitely don't want that.

>>56589893
I wish I was a bird so I could fly away from my poor investment decisions

>>56589816
F, GM, lithium, refiners, it's really all fucked isn't it? Any auto lenders with gnarly charts?

>>56589831
>You shouldn't be!!!!!
Lmao get a load of this fucking guy

>>56589860
Bro seriously what the fuck is your issue with this?? It's not even that hard to swing over 20% - I'm starting to think you just have no idea how to do it

>>56589649
Me on the top right

>>56589902
fuck

>>56589896
buddy even if you're not of the tribe, you don't get to a certain level of success without being compromised or complicit in some way

>>56589896
>author of Dalio hit piece book

>>56589896
The guy's off chilling, studying history, warning about our debt cycle and declining empire relative to the Chinamen. So probably a bunch of malding NYT/DC types have an axe to grind.

>>56589929
I don't even need his name or early life section, for I have the ultra instinct.

>>56589896
In Finance you aren't allowed to be a major player without being Jewish or humiliating yourself for Jews. Same for many other industries.
>I work in finance

>>56589907
If you shoot yourself your soul flies away from all your poor decisions. That's my 20 year plan

>>56589952
That's a good plan. Maximum margin before I go as well and my suicide note will read "free my nigga bill hwang, leverage is not a crime"

bros i think im up 0% today but i got my JEPI div

>>56589896
Dalio is saying that the US is going to lose WW3 and collapse into civil war. Glowniggers can't allow the free flow of information.

>>56589896
All those dumb doomer boomers are absolute retards. Dalio, buffet, gates, Jeremy grantham all had their day but it’s over. They’re doomers or just fucking over people by saying it’s over. Only yeets and whites pay them any attention.

>>56589999
Wasted.

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checked

>>56589999
>>56590015
1PBTID samefag, kys.

>>56589999

Hello
I want to die
This is not related to finance
That is all

>>56589997
no
I am out of ice cream

is pimiping putas in colombia a solid business plan?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqR8FNQiC1Q

>>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000 >>56590000

>>56588696
>https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-etfs/
thank you now I am gamble in style. I feel I can safely predict short term price action but the macro stuff is harder. I have 5 months to make 300% gains to reach my goal

>>56589999
Oh boy he done did it.

Keeps going downhill

>>56589582
If this is not evidence of a jewish mafia, then I don't know what is...

Crab bros when do my iron condors quit getting btfo'd? Getting real tired of this pump

you guys cant stop me from collecting my boomer dividends

>>56590095
You expect stability? In the stock market of 2023 America?

Really, dude?

Hey can someone post that EarningsWhisper chart for companies reporting this week?

TOMORROW WE PUMP
https://youtu.be/rzfu5GQtJ_4

> Some of the commodity charts like oil,cotton & corn are showing some real deflationary tendencies here.I think we are at an important inflection point where markets realize that the Fed is done & the focus & concerns about inflation are over.Big bond rally & equity melt-up ahead.

Guys! @DaveHcontrarian's melt-up is finally about to happen!

>>56590140

>>56590095
theta is a big man, he will protect you in the end
But, yeah, like >>56590131 said I don't see this as a market that's particularly supportive of the iron condor strategy.

>>56590095
there's been negative gamma exposure on qqq recently and it just took a correction last month so volatility should be expected, maybe widen your condors a bit until it starts behaving again

>>56590150
He wasn't wrong, just early.

>>56590143

>>56588470
>Go to SPY, furthest expiration date, furthest ITM. You'll get 1.8x leverage. Breakeven is $451 (3% increase from current price). Basically 1.5% interest per year (for 1.8x leverage) for the length of the contract. Long synthetic futures, spreads, margin, loans etc don't come close to that.
This anon from the last thread was acting cocky as fuck about his "free leverage", so I decided to investigate further...
>furthest expiration = Jan '26, 800 days, 2.2 yrs out.
>deepest ITM = $210 strike
>ask = $241

This information is all valid, but there are important oversights leading to his flawed conclusion.
>dividends => 1.76% yield, $1.5-2 per quarter, 9 quarters left
>call option holders do not receive dividends
>S&P future price expectations adjust for these dividends expectations.
While I won't try to forecast these divvies in detail, a rough estimate of $1.7 x 9 = $15.3 in dividends received before call expiration.
This ups the breakeven to $466. The actual difference is about +$30 on SPY.
>actual exposure $241 ($24k), leverage of ~1.8x is already built into this cost (436/241)

>270/240 = 12.5% increase relative to exposure to breakeven.
>12.5% / 2.2 yrs = 5.7% /yr
In the end, the cost is a small premium over short duration treasuries. About what you'd expect.

There's also a 3% bid/ask spread. Liquidity will likely improve as expiration nears, but as it stands it means potentially an immediate 3% loss just to exit the position.

>Conclusion
This trade idea is retarded. There are much better ways to express the same position.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/rockstar-plans-to-announce-much-anticipated-grand-theft-auto-vi?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTY5OTQxMjMwNywiZXhwIjoxNzAwMDE3MTA3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTM1JWQkREV0xVNjgwMSIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJCMUVBQkI5NjQ2QUM0REZFQTJBRkI4MjI1MzgyQTJFQSJ9.3ryTNPoXswLuh9rS0VUSAbr-Uj4ezdsFo5JjTaKz2PA

Buy TTWO now or regret it

>>56590152
Thanks. One of those companies is... oh my God.

>>56590013
>I'm smarter than Buffet
Sounds about par for /biz/

Lottery winners are the worst. Those fools win life changing money then they take the lump sum and end up fucking it all away. The real solution is to take the annuity option. For 30 years you get so much a year. Due to paying out less in taxes over those 30 years you end up with more of the prize money. Depending on the prize won hell even a year's payout is fuck huge. So nutshell; Pay out less in tax, keep more of your winnings, still have fuck huge amount a year to do fuck all with.

>>56590152
I've never (directly) held a single one of these dogshit companies. No fucking wonder the S&P is like 8 companies. Holy fuck what a cornucopia of shit. No thank you.

>>56590201
that's not something peter lynch would say anon, that guy owned one of everything

>>56590201
NXP and Affirm don't sound so bad, I haven't looked closely though.

>>56590152
>PLUG
Made some funny money off of that in 2021.

>>56590131
>>56590154
IV is still elevated. I'm just trying to get broke off a little Vega negative love from the market makers. I promise I'll close at just 50% profit. No more. I don't ask for much
>>56590155
Delta on the OTM call was around .15 when I opened the trade. I legit think we crab for a while from here. The big equity move up is done after the treasury basis trade short covering. The wings are actually pretty wide on the IC too. If IV had been too low I would have just opened a calendar spread instead. FWIW the trade is one piece of a larger strategy that has some ICs on SPY and broken wing butterflies on UVXY. Backtesting and empirical experience shows it makes about 20% a year on the risked money. I mostly do it as a diversifier

Look on /pol/ right now. Some American/Canadian boomer killed protesters in Panama (pic related).

I have a /biz/ related theory on why he did it. Check the FM.TO chart. Then check what the protesters are protesting against (FM.TO).

Now that's a real activist investor?

>>56590171

thank you for your autism

>>56590193
There is no guarantee that the lottery will still be around to pay you out in 30 years.
Wouldn't it be better to just have it carefully managed by something like Berkshire to create generational wealth?

>>56590211
sounds like you got a handle on it then anon, all good

(for what it's worth right now my preferred theta strat is selling puts because you can get 5% interest on your collateral which is dope, plus i'm fundamentally a buy and hold kind of guy so I don't mind assignment and that reduces the hassle of managing the position a lot unless it goes really wrong)

>>56590213
This is why I will never invest in Latinx America. No, there isn't "a good country. Honest, senor!".

One morning PBR shareholders will wake up to a fucking negative 50% dividend. SQM baggies will get zeroed out in a revolucion. And First Quantum shareholders will keep getting what they fucking deserve.

>>56590205
That's the joke.

>>56590193
>The real solution is to take the annuity option. For 30 years you get so much a year. Due to paying out less in taxes over those 30 years you end up with more of the prize money.
Is this actually true?
Suppose you win $1 billion post-tax. Interest on that right now would be $50 mil. Top tax bracket is around $500k.
Suppose you take the annuity instead and it's like $80 mil/year or something. You still pay taxes on that every year as you receive it.

Either way, you're still massively above the top tax bracket, every year.

>>56590213
>>56590254
>This is why I will never invest in Latinx America.

It a Canadian company though. FM.TO ticker. Check your holdings. A company might appear to be Western, but can have tentacles all over the world. The risk comes from that exposure.

(or maybe he just wanted people out of his Jurassic Park)

>>56590150
>deflationary tendencies
I don't think he knows what deflation means.

>>56590287
That's pretty basic DD for any commodity company though. They'll always have a couple wells in Gabon or some mine getting setup in Mongolia, which is what you gotta sift through.

>>56590287
how is shooting protestors bullish?

Fagyed has spoken, prepare for small caps to giga pump tommorow

>>56590311
Many boomers retire in Panam. He probably lost everything and could no longer larp as a medieval lord over the nonwhites so just said "fuck it". Boomers cannot handle a 50% drop in their investments

>>56590213
based

>>56590325
i dont fucking care about that
how are we going to profit off this?

>>56590261
yes it is

why are the streetshitters on my street wilding? i thought diwali was next week

Winter is historicall a weak time for oil. I am officially shorting XOM and USO.

>>56590336

Check em

>>56590254
Lula larps as a socialist but is really just a state capitalist

>futures

>>56590354
This dude lives in Panama and has been tweeting about fuel shortages (among other parts of the collapse): https://twitter.com/calvinfroedge

So... tanker gang?

>>56590424
Very disorganized. Someone needs to get those ducks in a row.

>>56590171
Yeah it's not like options aren't convex and the convexity won't more than make up for lack of dividends as the call goes deeper in the money, dipshit

Whats a strategy or frame of mind for not exiting out of a down position?

>>56590446
we can try

>>56590507
Self-sabotage

>>56590518
are they pets or food? the future is bleak indeed.
humans are fucked.

>>56590397
the way they walked it back the instant investors thought they might cut the dividend seems to suggest they won't do anything too stupid too soon, at least

>>56590507
calculate before you trade when you should be exiting at a loss and stick to that plan

if you see the price doing weird things you don't understand that's a sign to exit or modify the trade before it becomes a bet on black at roulette

you should also have an expected chance of profit and an expected price target; if chance of profit x amount of profit isn't bigger than chance of loss x amount of loss you should adjust your exit until it is

if you still exit early then you don't have enough confidence in your trading plan and should size down your positions until the potential loss no longer causes you to lose confidence (or, if your trading plan is actually bad, then stop trading until you make a more confidence-inspiring trading plan)

>>56590152
I'm looking to see if wbd shits the bed again tomorrow. Ol' 100x margin Bill really knew how to pick 'em.

>>56589902
Puts on Palantir it is.
Sigh.

>>56590354
I did a bit of research. Everything looks priced in. The Panama mine is their crown jewel. You can try catching the knife, and hope that the corporate elite kill any 3rd worlders in their way like they always do. Even if you profit from that trade, blood will be on your hands for eternity however.

Also - the shooter is a total glowie. This shit goes pretty deep. Pic related he was arrested at age 59 for "weapons of war" and got away without doing any time. I bet his handlers paid off a few Spics and he's on a private jet to Canada now.

>>56590480
>more verbal diarrhea
cool.

The option mentioned is already deeply ITM, with delta near 1. There is no meaningful gamma.
Effective leverage ratio actually declines slightly as it goes further ITM, unlike LETFs, but similar to holding SPY on margin.

>>56590663
That wasn't me. Nice to know you're still seething though

>>56590150
>deflationary
>equity melt up
based retard buying my bags

>be Ray Dalio
>found Bridgewater Associates
>be one of the best macroeconomic forecasters of all time
>US government starts doing stupid and extremely corrupt things
>call them out
>warn everyone that the country will collapse if the corruption continues
>government just doubles down instead of fixing the problems
>glowniggers launch a massive coordinated smear camapaign against you
Extremely bearish for the future of the United States.

>>56590760
pic rel is what the collapse will look like, by the way.

none of you are going to get your le hecking epic kaiserreich civil war.

>Nikkei futures
>Palladium futures
>Holy fuck, palladium futures
>Seriously, does anyone know anything about palladium futures?

>>56590775
>There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always— do not forget this, Winston— always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face— forever.

>>56589738
lol found the liberal

>>56590810
are you calling me a glowie?

>>56590760
why cant someone just be a crazy fuck without it having to do with biden or shills?

>>56590820
The point needed a little elaboration.

>>56590823
You haven't noticed the massive multi-pronged media campaign to discredit Dalio in the last 24 hours? Pay more attention.

>>56590583
I exited out of 15 SPY contracts at the $430, it was worth 9 thousand dollars today by closing. I took a lousy 600 bucks on Friday, I do this over and over again. for years. I cant top tick

>>56590842
yeah a book came out talking about how he was a shitty boss, is it really that deepo

>>56590858
It's a lot more than a fucking book. Every news outlet is running anti-Dalio hit pieces right now in perfect unison. We truly live in a totalitarian state.

>>56590877
ok

>futures

>>56590858
>>56590883
J-just stop noticing stuff goys I mean bros

>>56590893
>black man sees a persimmon for the first time

>>56590894
i actually like dalio and watch interviews with him all the time, so hearing this on patrick oboyles channel was saddening. guess ill stick to munger
https://youtu.be/w6qRb171cog

>pasts

>>56589083
> he doesn't use quarterconductors
smdh mi famiglia
also, earnings tomorrow is going to be wild

>>56590848
oh, i thought you meant exiting too soon while it's against you, my bad!

i think there's 2 angles you can work on taking profits too soon specifically

1 is the same confidence angle: really sit down in advance and try to work out your profit target -- if you find that in practice you don't trust your profit target and find yourself exiting early anyway then either your plan isn't convincing enough or you should reduce your position size to increase your comfort with the risk

2 is an exit strategy which you might find more helpful: take profits on just a few contracts at a time, that way you've secured some amount of profit and you can feel more confident letting the rest ride for longer because of that cushion and having less capital at risk

when you scale out of a winning position like that also be sure to always at least break even on the whole play; if you let a winning play actually turn negative on you that'll just fuel your profit ptsd

>>56590902
Theyve developed a microwave based technology for touchlessly automating vegetable and fruit quality analysis. They're analyzing persimmons because of the uniform density
>pic notrelated

>>56590877
and now there's rumors of a hollywood deal.
>>56590883
picrel is the only good frog

>>56590907
Dalio's toast. Bridgewater is done. Long live the secular bull

>>56590941
kek is that supposed to be Russell Crowe?

>>56590935
>Ray Dalio: Hey, I should write a book
Has book ghost-written
>Ray Dalio: Hey, I should write a tweet
Has tweet ghost-written
>Ray Dalio: Hey, I should make a movie
Has movie ghost-written

Ray knows how to make stuff happen

Don't worry about futures
We're gonna pump HIGHER again tomorrow
https://youtu.be/JScqQoZhbYo

>>56591016
Respectfully, this is dogshit. Like, legitimately embarrassing. Please find better taste for all of our sakes. Thank you.

>>56591039
It's a track with a good drop
Just like Jerome's gonna drop those rates in December

>>56591042
boom (he won't tho)

>>56590877
Shit's even on Hacker News of all places. Surely an organic phenomenon

>>56589047
I know someone else probably mentioned this, but what happened KEK

>>56590848
is there a reason you buy itm and not otm?

>>56591072
i think it has to do with less users.

>>56591091
you mean after hours trading or with regards to them having less users overall now after the report

>>56590983
amazing shot.
do you happen to have a link to the full res original?

>no more catalysts this week to speak of
might as well just close the market until Monday

>>56591123
>with regards to them having less users overall now after the report
this i would assume.

>>56590983
>>56591181
found them, apparently
https://x.com/BEH0LDINGEYE/status/1644452799382695937?s=20
https://x.com/BEH0LDINGEYE/status/1644682785905602561?s=20

>>56591210
isnt J Pow speaking tomorrow?

>>56591233
yeah but he and the other fed presidents already said a lot already in the last few days so unless he drops some kind of real bomb the markets won't even notice. The most bearish thing lately is when Kashkari said he'd rather risk overtightening then undertightening. I think that might have been today or maybe yesterday and literally nothing happened. The only thing remotely market moving right now as far as I see it would be some new development out of the middle east

Wtf, should have shorted DAX yesterday during US session or at least after. ffs, back to where we were during EU session yesterday

>>56589258
Boil is a lot more profitable that 99% of the other garbage I've traded on this fuckawful market. It's quite literally just a matter of betting on it going up in August and in October and it did just that. It would be a stupid idea to bet on a short term big swing now though.

>>56591241
>so unless he drops some kind of real bomb the markets won't even notice.
exactly, that guy doesnt like the market going up. he might say some thing to spook the markets like "i did not say rates will be cut, when did i say that???" (paraphrasing) and then then the markets tank. Almost every time he speaks, he says something like that. Hes like so nervous that people will think rats will be cut.
>>56591261
>Kashkari
Yeah, i think it was yesterday, literally nothing happened.

>>56591267
*rates

Melt up bro, it is our time.

LETS KEEP THE BIDEN PUMP GOING TOMORROW!!! WHO'S WITH ME?!
FOUR MORE YEARS, YEAH YEAH
FOR MORE YEARS!!

>>56591267
>>56591274
Starting from September/October 2022, the bond market has ignored reality for almost a full year and turned anything any FED speaker said into wishful thinking of easy money fairy tales.
Just look at the full retard strength the market has shown to be capable of since Friday of two weeks ago.

>>56591304
Wow, Bidenomics worked??????

>>56591304
>>56590296

>>56591304
Maybe in the US. EU is still going down

>>56589999
Since only people have value, that's fine by me

>>56591309
check em jack

>>56591330
EU will be fine.
those m/m industrial production drops will be nothingburgers.

>bidet-nomics
hope you like living in a tent cuz that's all you'll ever be able to afford zoomer bros

>>56591344
Damn, biden confirmed for 2024 and melt up immenent.
I am buying calls tomorrow.

>>56591355
>tfw I bought feb 2021
Feels good being a chad

>>56591355
it gonna fall when biden asks obama to do what he did in 2008

>>56591353
Yes, sure. Let's see what 2024 will happen. In the meantime I stay short, maybe hedge a little, short harder and earn interest on my shorts.

>>56591388
A lot of priced out people are hoping for exactly that. We live in strange times
>I wanna go back to the before times anons

>>56591404
yes..... i want to go back so i can deploy all over again and redo my life

>>56591404
they want home prices to crash? what else happened in 2008 besides the crash? did everyone in usa take a hit?

>>56589682
>provides a constant source of CO2 that can be used for fracking and extraction
>fracking
This. Public opinion in Germany has always been against fracking, so its banned here.
We have a few natgas reserves that could be unlocked if fracking was possible.
However, recently there is constant shilling for "carbon capture" which makes me thing ((someone)) is trying to soften public opinion and enable fracking.

the daily injection of liquidity by central banks is rising according to fx evolution. FED is the green line.
I still don't understand how he can calculate the balance sheet when the Central banks themselves publish their books only once a week.
The only daily book is by the treasury
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/operating-cash-balance

>>56591404
Rightfully so. Living should be affordable. Especially in such a huge country like the US that claims to be first world. But since it is like a prerequisite to working/waging, it is artificially kept expensive to indirectly enslave a huge part of the population.

>>56591355

>>56591425
Yeah people didn't get their great reset they were clamoring so hard for after the scamdemic so the new cope is they just want the entire economy to crash completely so they can finally afford some 1200 square foot shack in a middle of the road city. Like >>56591434 is saying things do obviously suck and housing shouldn't be out of reach the way it is but I don't think a huge economic calamity is going to have they outcome they're expecting. It'll probably just make everything worse

>>56591452
Right but when housing crashes, other parts of economy will crash too.

>>56591438
The even more beautiful thing about that chart is now current homeowners are stuck in place since they don't want to swap current 3% loans for 8% new ones by moving. That chokes off supply completely and the price spirals up even more

>>56591460
>That chokes off supply completely and the price spirals up even more

>>56591452
Damn you actually were reasonable and explained it nice

>>56591452
Less work/demand for work might bring prices for houses down, as I said, it is what an employer expects of you, as it greatly affects your looks (shower etc). Yes, some people might be able to live in a car etc, but most won't.

I think working from home made things even worse, as now houses in places that previously had 0 worth also probably increased as they suddenly became a valuable object to rent/buy because you could work from home in a silent and abandoned place. But also in more crowded places, as with the working from home trend many people took one room of their apartment/house and turned it into an office (like my brother for example).

>>56591470
How? What was so nice about it? Homes are too expensive and people want to buy but when prices falls the economy tanks too.

>>56591479
Anon could have said kys

>>56591492
kek

>>56591404
even the internet (mostly) isn't fun any more.

>>56591501
The internet is hilarious lmfao. Yeah it was very funny in like 2004ish era too.

Office bros...

>>56591501
Best most peaceful day I've had in a while was last Saturday I decided to not look at a screen all day. Kicked back in my favorite chair and read an old school book and shot the shit with the wife. Probably gonna do that more often. I hate to meme about how much a real POS the new corporate internet has gotten but g'dam dystopian hellscape really is fitting. 4chan has even taken a turn for the worse the last few years. THanks for reading my blog

>>56591430
why dont you post the signal names so we can reproduce it

Is lower inflation now bullish or bearish? You can't tell in this market.

>>56591460
>That chokes off supply completely and the price spirals up even more
Everyone with an IQ of higher than room temperature should have known this to be the case. It baffles me that some people legit thought houses would fall 50% or more... just what in f3gg.

On another note, check this out bros.
>Conversely, strong companies with large cash balances are beginning to earn cash yields that substantially outpace their interest expense
Heh, mega caps once again BTFOing all bobos in existence. 8th blue day incoming.

I can only imagine what a dreadful EU session this will be again. Not worth looking at.

>>56590786
>does anyone know anything about palladium futures
Palladium's main application is catalytic converters for emission reduction of cars. So if it goes down, short the car industry. If it goes down bigly, short China, Germany and the USA.

>>56591537
I was reading where Berkshire is sitting on 150 billion in short term treasuries earning that sweet 5%. Billions and billions of dollars for literally nothing. Glorious

i was thinking about jerking off but my cat climbed onto my lap and went to sleep. God bless cats.

Oil has bottomed at 75. It will pump back to 87 from here.

Then it will go down to 30 bucks, shorting oil will become the new gold in the giga recession. NRGD falls to 218, then pumps to 900.

>>56591517
4chan is like reading a garbage dump. Only /smg/ truly feels like old 4chan.

>>56591544
It went down the whole fuckin 2 years and BMW as well as Mercedes etc went up. You are talking out of your ass.

>>56591563
And then we have the pathetic ass rates in my europoor country. Inflation is also double that of the rates (and was triple that of rates just a few months back). I just can't win in euroshit.
Yeah, there is pretty much no reason not to sit in short term t-bills right now, getting free 5-6% per year. They are quite literally mocking us

>>56591594
Yeah, I also sold all my bonds when the yields dropped now in november for profit. It was some nice gains, but with that same money I could have made way more longing the market on leverage.

Bonds only make sense for large institutions that NEED a safe income like those companies that provide private pensions (Allianz etc in germany). They need a stable income that is not effected by the market to some degree, so they are into bonds as well as other big companies. But as a private "investor" (GOOMBLER) you probably are better off just fuckin leverage trading if you actually want to make money.

>>56591594
>>56591615
Even those tasty romanian bonds.. I sold them all... ALL

>>56591615
Of course this crap is for the big money. Large enough caps make tons of money off of this and can easily offset a lot of their debt this way. For shrimps like us though, it's better to just long S&P 500 or NASDAQ by DCAing smartly into some index fund. After all, the line goes only up, r-r--r-ight? Well, as long as the indices keep getting carried by the magnificent seven and good tech, yes.

Five million shares traded hands in the last 4 minutes before closing yesterday on the SPY. Thats institutional money. Is this Powell opening remarks hold more water than I assumed?

Do you think that making money can be an addiction? I have enough money to live comfortably until I am 100, but when I try to stop updating my excel sheets, I fail within 10 days. Or am I just retarded?

>>56591527
>>56591647
Why is that part of the line circled?

>>56591661
watching line go up is one of the few things that bring me joy. Nothing wrong with that

Nasdaq hitting the resistance at 13,659 and closing at 13,639. It will go down tomorrow, then crab thursday, green again friday with a lower high. Double top. Monday will be a big bloody reversal downwards again.

>>56591695
I don't even enjoy trading the market, I just like watching candles go up and down. But when I sold oil on Friday and then it immediately went sour I felt pretty fucking good. Sold the fucking top. Like right at the tippity top before it fell off a cliff. Made my day.

>>56591591
he's right about what it's used for (also capacitors and hydrogen chemical stuff) but the effect on auto manufacturers is too inconsistent to be a long-short signal

usually when you see huge price spikes like that there's some kind of business cycle catalyst (e.g. printing tons of money heated up the economy and palladium supply couldn't keep up) or some kind of natural disaster (e.g. the hard drive shortage a few years ago when all those hard drive factories flooded)

having done the absolute bare minimum of research, 40% of palladium is produced in Russia so idk probably price fixing or economic demand outstripped supply, demand ramped up into turbo overdrive from the 2020 money printing spree, then Russia invaded Ukraine and the economy's been cooling off, so demand is lower and sanctions probably means there's a price cap as well

you want better than that go read bloomberg i guess

>>56591711
>But when I sold oil on Friday and then it immediately went sour I felt pretty fucking good. Sold the fucking top. Like right at the tippity top before it fell off a cliff. Made my day
based. nice job

>>56591721
I know he's right about what it is used for. But the price of it had 0 impact on the performance of car companies. It might even be the opposite as the materials got cheaper but the manufacturers could still increase prices for the cars.

Im going to be a future thousandaire

Yields...

>>56591430
Yes, this is incredibly interesting but I would also like to know how he gets his hands on this info and how he arrives at his math. And please for the love of god why can't he scale the y-axis? What units is the green line? This is elementary graph-making.
The FED is also controlling the markets through REPO
>>56591711
Nah, NASDAQ is going to 16900 and then we'll see a slight pullback and up to new ATH. It's that easy and also supported by my TA

>>56591796
What does it mean?

Give it to me straight, doc. Do I buy, sell, or become a tranny?

>>56591846
Tranny.

First they fucked bears. Then they fucked Mumus a little. Now they are going to fuck anybody that is holding positions you pay interest for as well as LEVERAGED ETF fags, cause we crab now.

Why isn't the 79$ Biden OIL put not working?

>>56591856
Thanks. I'll become a tranny and start an OF to support my leveraged positions.

>>56589902
OK, time to cash out for a while.

>>56591856
>Now they are going to fuck anybody that is holding positions you pay interest for as well as LEVERAGED ETF fags, cause we crab now
Jokes on you I'm short VIX futures. Cope and seethe crabman

>>56591814
Long term bonds are coming down for the time being, since the latest treasury announcement saying that they're issuing bills instead of bonds the lowering supply. Also the last jobs and wage cost report came in cool, lower inflation exceptions. But we will see at Thursday's 30Y bond auction to see if yields will continue to lower.

>>56591866
Ok, send your name/tag or whatever it is called on OF to Orlenbro, Lumswede and Baggot

>>56591804
>Nah, NASDAQ is going to 16900 and then we'll see a slight pullback and up to new ATH. It's that easy and also supported by my TA
You don't have any investments, you just post anime pics and fool people into buying SOXL when Nvidia is a better investment.

>>56591871
Jokes on you, I'm short EU and I get paid.overnight (CFD on CMC). What I'm currently trying to figure out is how hard I should short and/or how much I should hedge if at all on IG with Turbo/Barriers and with what leverage etc.

>>56591871
But shorting VIX was also a good play the last months. Didn't think of that as a hedge basically to shorting EU. It's especially good as those volatility indices are basically decaying like leveraged ETFs. But leveraged ETF you cannot short, not even on CFD (CMC and IG).

So thanks for reminding me, will look into that in the future. Or more like bringing me to that idea.

>>56591886
>SOXL
is a shit and I would never ever recommend a 3x leveraged crap market "asset" to anyone. NVDA is indeed the best option and my mum owns a metric ton of it. I on the other hand prefer industrial companies like Caterpillar and divvie companies.
And since I am a sentimental and stuck-in-my-ways person, I don't deal in tech. But even I can acknowledge that tech is the most bullish out of all indices/sectors.
Plus, Lum a cute and you can't deny that.

>>56591907
Opinion discarded into the trash you dumb jew.

>>56591906
Nice thing about a short VIX position is while it correlates highly with long equities there are a few important distinctions. Most importantly due to the contango of VIX futures, the equity markets can go sideways and VIX will still continually drop. If equity markets go up VIX drops. Even if equity markets go down, as long as it isn't too fast, historically VIX futures still often go down. It's a good complement to long equities even if you don't want to specialize in it

>>56591911

Now is the time for the insurance companies to feel the heem. As this is probably the top of their growth.

>Allianz
>Münchener
>Hannover


>>56591919
Yes. I've seen that. Heavy drops on equities are dangerous for VIX shorters, but if it crabs, VIX shorts will win. That's what I meant with "decay". It's similar to leveraged etf that lose value with time and makes holding them risky.

>>56590820
You may not be a glowie, but the author of your demoralizing screenshot seems like one.
The trouble will pass. The future is bright. WAGMI.

next
>>56591965
>>56591965
>>56591965

>>56591921
I earned my anti-semitic comment with my digits, check'em

Also holy shit I actually knew this dumb bitch in school and no fucking surprise she fucked up her life doing something incredibly dumb and managed to get seduced, outsmarted, and blackmailed by a 15 yr old.

>>56591974
puts on her future

>>56591974
fuck that would be so awesome if that happened to me as a kid