/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56587001
Fuck kikes and jannies and niggers

>NIGGERS could be here, she thought.

First for 3x leverage chads win again

Oil is done for
but bonds are back (small caps too)

get more bullish

>>56587022
BASED

All of my stocks are down atleast 40% and i dont have any money to average down

how fucked is Real Estate with this Mr Cooper drama unfolding?

>>56587029
hey that's proprietary, stop posting my account

>>56586995
Used to be back when /sp/ was actually fun, so not since 2014 or so

it's over

Why the fuck was most of today green? There wasn't any kind of big news....

>>56587028
if only her tits were bigger than the head, she would be a 10/10

Baking.

>>56587033
Sell your stocks and buy calls instead. You can string it out for a good while doing that

MULN puts keep me rich as fuck

>>56587014

>>56587028
>10Y 4.57%

>>56586794
>Now you're lying again through implication.
Since you don't understand debate tactics, I'll explain for you. You have presented a paper by Michael Gayed as an authoritative work proving your beliefs. By pointing out the dogshit performance of his real life ETFs, it discredits him as an expert. Appeal to authority is a bullshit tactic in the first place, but even your vain appeals to authority are weak. In this sense, the poor real world performance of his ETFs is entirely relevant.
>That claim is hypothetical until you prove it.
Yeah lets just "prove" those future returns. lmao.
Unsurprisingly, you continue to believe that your own discredited backtests are flawless proof, while any competing idea is just "Hypothetical".
>You posted a fucking chart going back a few years during a single market regime
The irony. LMAO.
And then when I point out the dogshit SOXL/UPRO/etc performance in this new regime, you spew out endless mountains of cope on why it doesn't count. And thus the circle of cope continues.
>no rule set
The rule set is in the image - It's a set of LETF shorts. If you're wondering why I constructed that specific basket, there are certain LETF pairs that perform extremely poorly due to structural issues. JNUG and JDST are two of the optimal ones due to high volatility with limited tendency to spiral. SOXS/LABU are in a similar boat. Gold/SPY provide general benefits in rebalancing while improving overall correlation to general upwards market trends, with FLOT being a decent cash alternative for the excess capital. The point is to profit off volatility in general. This is a pretty standard type of strategy with actual mathematical foundation behind it that works in the real world, rather than being stuck in some hypothetical lab scenario:
https://www.richmondquant.com/news/2021/9/21/shannons-demon-amp-how-portfolio-returns-can-be-created-out-of-thin-air

>>56587043
large caps are done for
Small cap are the future

>>56587079
imagine being gay enough to write a novel on 4channel

>Stopped out of HCC
>Stopped out of TDW
>Still ended up turning -1.5% day into a +1.5% day

>>56587039
Damn remember the Redskins?

>>56587079
>By pointing out the dogshit performance of his real life ETFs, it discredits him as an expert. Appeal to authority is a bullshit tactic in the first place, but even your vain appeals to authority are weak
Again with the verbal dyslexia. I'm appealing to data. You're appealing to some kind of negative? authority by saying strategy A got rekt therefore strategy B by the same author must also get rekt. Do you see what I'm getting at here in describing your posting style? You're literally accusing me of doing something that you are doing while I am doing the exact opposite. Why do you do this when it's so transparent? I'm not going to read the rest of your drivel because I know it's just more of the same sophistry with no data or backtest but I'll tell you a little anecdote. I used to work as a software engineer making mobile apps and website front and backend. The very last place I worked had this warehouse guy. He was about my age and was pretty cool. Had some interests in tech too so we'd shoot the shit. The thing is, much like you, he knew a lot of words that were tech related and he would say them in a way that was grammatically correct but the logical conclusions of what he was saying were nonsensical. Like he was just combining the words randomly like some kind of Markov chain. When he was agreeing he wasn't really "agreeing" and the same for the opposite. He just talked and talked. That's when I came up with the phrase "verbal dyslexia" as it fit him perfectly. That fits you well too. You have verbal dyslexia and arguing with you is like arguing with a markov chain spun through last years SOTA large language model. Why are yo ulike this?

Does anyone else ever scream at a ticker for having low volume and being too slow to make a movement?

>>56587016
BASED, Tswizzle don't want shit to do with any NON NATGASers.

>another day buying every stock and bond known to man at market weights

>>56587079
go back to your bankruptcy thread you faggot

>>56587155
>NATGASchads
Uhhhhm based department?

>>56587151
No, because I seek to reduce/eliminate emotional involvement in trading.

>Central banks are now cutting rates at the fastest pace since August 2020, per Bank of America

>JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. has been added to the list of Standing Repo Facility Counterparties, effective November 6, 2023

uh bros, are we gonna get some 1800's level banking fuck ups soon?

bros...

>>56587080
we could much bigger than that

>real life etfs
you fags buying imagining etfs?

The Federal Reserve is lying through its teeth and conducting yield curve control, and all of you are acting like this market is totally normal.

>>56587016
I need Tay to pump the market. she should sign with Adidas to replace yeezys or something

>>56587181
It is faggot. Cry more

>>56587196
We've gone full Zimbabwe mode and you're pretending that nothing is wrong.

>Wall Street is waiting for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to finalise its rules for clearing much of trading in the $25 trillion Treasuries market, per Reuters

>MOODY'S HAS ESTIMATED THAT BIG BANKS ARE SITTING ON $650 BILLION OF UNREALIZED LOSSES

what did they mean by this?

>>56586936
You were replying to a distinct comment chain on the topic of 3x ETFs in general. I get that you suffer from autism and have trouble reading multiple posts and distinguishing separate conversations and topics. You probably just highlighted every post by my ID and assumed it was one conversation, so I'll indulge you.
>You also realize that while the price of SPY today is similar to the price 2 years ago a lot has actually happened in between those two dates and the strategy would have you in and out of UPRO profitably.
Not necessarily. While rebalancing amongst partial positions is profitable in a flat market, leveraged rotation strategies are an attempt to trade momentum. They inherently buy high after a spike, and sell after a decline. Whether they profit depends on the extent of those intermediate trends. The average must move upwards during the hold such that upon exiting, the decline below the curve leaves the trader with a result above breakeven.
>You also realize that while you were in cash you would have been earning the risk free rate right?
Honestly I'm surprised you understand this concept, because you seem incapable of understanding that while holding the LETF, you are also paying that risk free rate, plus a premium, plus a management fee, plus vol decay.
Your selective ignorance is impressive.

>>56586978
Congrats on the 98 bucks by the way. Although sadly this only further reinforces by bias that LETF retards are all probably 5 fig accounts.

>>56587178
>you fags buying imagining etfs?
Yeah. Sorry you missed out on buying SOXL in the 1930s but in my head I'm the wealthiest motherfucker in the world.

>Apple displayed no growth
>Trading at pretty high P/E
Completely erased the pathetic drop and is once again hovering near ATH. And that's just one example. Bobos are pathetic and their weeks long hard work is undone in mere days by the bull. Amazing innit?
This really is insane. The seventh blue day and we are probably heading for a eight one. Though, I reckon we are gonna wobble around the 18th week average right now. The rally was probably also fueled by a lot of short covering.
Hell, as bullish as I am, I also thought of buying a few shorts yesterday but luckily I didn't. Remember bros, JPow's job is to shift the market narrative. The market is performing badly? Turn dovish and fix it... and vice versa

kek oil baggies

>>56587079
>there are certain LETF pairs that perform extremely poorly due to structural issues

Can you elaborate a bit more on this? Is it easy to find other LETFs with these structural issues?

>>56587220
>we have gone full Zimbabwe mode
Oh cool larp Anon

>we are back to a few bloated mega caps leading while the entire market are the only sane ones

not a good look mumu

I bought a put option for ford. Am I doing this right?

>>56587250
It's funny watching growth cap dying in real time

>>56587230
Less Markov chain sophistry and more data and backtests my guy. You won't produce any backtests because you haven't done any work. You'd rather talk
>Congrats on the 98 bucks by the way. Although sadly this only further reinforces by bias that LETF retards are all probably 5 fig accounts.
And when all else fails resort to ad hominim. It's a single trade in a much larger account. I happen to have several with different brokers including a futures account. The Robinhood is the meme account for screenshots. Speaking of which why don't you ever show any screenshots of your own? You claim you made all this money on NVDA but never a single bit of proof..

>>56587220
Feel like splurging on an effort post to spoonfeed me doom porn confirmation bias regarding how the financial system is due to finally shit the bed? Thus allowing me to view globohomo's last gasping wheezes before I start looting with the mobs. Then finally resort to cannibalizing the weak in society.

All it takes for this pretend money printer circlejerk of an "economy" to implode is for China to confront the United States. There are no fundamentals anymore, only money printing. But you can't use a money printer to build weapons when you've totally deindustrialized.

>>56587250
Every time anyone says that shit about Apple it turns out to have higher growth than expected

uh megacapbros? This is sustainable, right? Or just sus?

>>56587281
shit's gonna make the Nifty Fifty look like a good economic strat by comparison kek

>>56587281
Actually a very good look. Once again this proves that you can just buy NASDAQ or S&P index and get your +20%/year. Fuckin insane but why not?
We have already established that a high rate and/or recession environment is the most suited for large enough caps and everyone knows it. Mega caps are the future and they are simply too big to fail.
If they ain't at ATH at any given time, they are undervalued in the eyes of the market.
A scary thought but one that has proven to be true in the last 10 years

>>56587321
I am heavily betting it isn't.

NlGGER

>>56587241
Perform a backtest as far back as the SOX index has existed (around 1994 I think). Use whatever meme interest rates, fees, costs, blah blah you want using whatever form of leverage existed at the time that is the most efficient and gets you closest to a 3x daily rebalanced version of the underlying and report back to how much you would have made or lost up to 4pm today. You won't because you are afraid of data. Because you know you are wrong

>>56587345
correct

>>56587298
>China is going to confront the United States
>that's what will make it collapse

so uhh...what the fuck is going on with QQQ the past week?

>>56587361
>download (3).jpg
Yes, that's exactly what's going to happen. We would become a third world country overnight if China suddenly issued a 100% trade embargo. No steel, no plastics, no medicine, no electronics, no nothing. You wouldn't even be able to brush your teeth.

>>56587261
turns out only Saudi cut from the "OPEC cut" and supply has been much higher than people thought

we'll see what happens when OPEC feels the wrath of Saudi's shoe tonight

>>56587250
Pride cometh before the fall....is anyone actually buying this?

>>56587390
>China is the only world supplier of those things!
>China wouldn't tank its whole entire economy in the process

>>56587404
What are they actually capable of doing to the rest of OPEC? They can't reign in Russia or the UAE.

>>56587230
>Honestly I'm surprised you understand this concept, because you seem incapable of understanding that while holding the LETF, you are also paying that risk free rate, plus a premium, plus a management fee, plus vol decay.
I will address this since it seems to underlie your confusion. Nobody has said that holding leveraged ETFs does not come with costs or that those costs do not fluctuate over time. Let me repeat so I can get through the haze between your ears and your cerebral cortex
LEVERAGED ETFs HAVE COSTS THAT FLUCTUATE OVER TIME
The onus on you is to provide data via the form of a backtest showing that those costs historically have rendered the leveraged rotation strategy unprofitable. You provide that and the discussion ends. You have had years to provide this and you have not. And you will not. Because you are wrong and the strategy works. You hate that fact because you have staked years worth of time and energy into posting that it doesn't work. I literally feel sorry for you

>>56587390
Well, considering that basically happened in 2020+ and we were fine, i'm not worried. Retail would collapse overnight sure.

>>56587408
Yes. Our primary source of all of those things is China, because we chose to focus on money printing instead of having a real economy. Furthermore, we've offshored everything else that doesn't come from China, like automobiles, to other countries like Mexico. In the event of a war, we would have no meaningful way to produce weapons. Because our economy is based on printing money.

>Optus, 2nd biggest telco in Australia crashes nationwide

Bros, how do I profit off of the cyber pandemic?

>>56587390
I was thinking of buying a few REMX and seeing how it'll play out if they try the Taiwan narrative.

>>56587447
>China's economy is real
>keeps posting irrelevant pics of Ukraine

>>56587405
Cope. On a micro-level you might as well read tea leaves or do astrology

>>56587337
https://youtu.be/_S9OZE8ds5I?si=EfGnyThPUdxidzyL
Correct

>>56587444
That was a minor supply disruption lasting for a couple months, where it took slightly longer to ship goods due to covid. Now imagine a total trade embargo lasting for 5+ years.

>>56587477
If China's economy is mire fake than ours, why do they have a much lower debt to GDP ratio and why do we have to import everything from China?

>>56587495
>what is exploiting sources of cheap slave labor

>>56587175

>>56587287
>more backtests my guy
At least you have a sense of humor, I'll give you that. Full of bullshit though. I'm glad you've taken my side for once in the sharing of that image. It's true. It's been quite a lot of effort to continue debating your bullshit, only for you to shift topics or reply again with the same discredited arguments like >>56587349
>b-but muh b-backtests!
Yes, I also have backtests. That may be the funniest part of this whole exchange. You're even utilizing a component of my strategy, although poorly - the VIX short. Now just invert from swinging LETF longs to blanket shorting LETFs, and you might start making some real bank. Before you know it, perhaps you'll be in six fig hell.

>when all else fails resort to ad hominim
That isn't actually part of any argument I'm making, but it was hilarious to note. I've already provided plenty of real facts that discredit every single one of your false claims.
I'll go a bit deeper into this topic though, because it's kind of important. Your portfolio size may seem irrelevant but it actually does matter. When you invest, there is risk. If you portfolio is small relative to your income (I'm assuming you're employed), then the effective risk is smaller. If you have a portfolio worth 6 months savings, you can rebuild within 6 months. You can also margin up and "borrow" from your future income. Worst case you blow up and then reset 6 months later. This is not an option if your portfolio represents substantial life savings. You lose it, that's your retirement.
Running highly leveraged strategies is risky. Leveraged rotation is less risky under typical markets than the buy and hold LETF strategy due to implied stop-losses, but there are still blowup conditions that would not exist with a basic hold of SPY/VOO.

When you consider the marginal utility of additional dollars of profit at different levels of wealth, the disparity widens further. In the end, the ideal leverage changes with portfolio size.

>>56587509
that's the beauty, bugmen are no longer cheap enough to be worth working with them.

what's with all of the cyber attacks lately? Fucking Mr Coopers has a huge breach recently too!

>>56587513
BIGGER

>>56587489
>implying I don't
>>56587495
An embargo against us would only have minor implications & only on the short term... unless its raw materials we can't source(cough oil). So in chinas case that is basically just lithium ion since while we can get those materials the environmental agencies and OSHA wont let anyone work with that crap lol. None of that would matter past a year though because we will find other sources.

>>56587509
You need that slave labor a lot more than that slave labor needs you. There is no industry like there was in WW2, and our existing weapons production is designed to be as inefficient as possible since it's a jobs program. Because this is a money printer based economy.

I’ve become indoctrinated by the academia system. I will profit from the stupidity of others. A fool and their money and what not. When you see me talking about this message board on the news, you’ll know who I am.

>>56587530
Unironically that's why China's economy is in trouble now and trying to avoid collapse. We literally have retards though who are too stupid to see this and have never been to mainland China to see first hand what a shit show it is.

>>56587553
no shooting up a walmart church or other place full of nobodies.

>>56587550
>you need slave labor a lot more than slave labor needs you
Oh wow why are they slaves to begin with then and still are?

>Mr. Cooper was "hacked" on Oct. 31st and has been down for a week.
>Mr. Cooper is the third largest mortgage servicer in the nation
>It is leaked that Mr. Cooper was raided by the feds due to MASSIVE amounts of fraud
>If this triggers new regulation it will cause a massive wave of buybacks on low quality loans
>That means millions, tens of millions of units (Office Space, Apartment Buildings) sold quickly and cheaply
>This will lead to a housing collapse which domino into a greater Global Financial Crisis similar to the Sub Prime Mortgage crisis of 2008

>DTCC Doubles Margin Requirements for Mortgage Backed Securities (sound familiar?)
>South Korea bans all short selling
>Governor of Federal Reserve Lisa Cook warns of the dangers and imminent disaster in real estate
>WeWork declares bankruptcy on Nov 6th.

>It is now 8 days after the supposed "hack" and users customers still cannot contact MrCooper or pay their mortgages


.......are we gonna be okay bros?

im worried me buying was premature ejaculation and i shall be rekt tomorrow

>>56587545
No, you don't understand just how much of our goods and raw materials come from China. There would be *nothing* in the event of war. That's what happens you have a fake and gay financial shell game of an economy, fueled by unrestrained money printing.

>>56587577
>permadoomer skeazo list with armageddon habbenings

2 more weeks

Discovered a big chunk of coagulated blood in my nose. This is bearish for the markets sell everything.

>>56587577

>>56587427
>The onus on you is to provide data via the form of a backtest showing that those costs historically have rendered the leveraged rotation strategy unprofitable.
It's really not. You have not provided a valid backtest in the first place, so I have no need to provide an alternative. I have provided the facts that render your belief invalid, and therefore there is no backtested evidence one way or another on whether this strategy would work. It's hypothetical on both sides.
Personally, I have no problem with it being hypothetical, because I am not relying on this imaginary information. I don't trust backtests in the first place. If YOU want more formal evidence that a backtest would've been viable, feel free to construct alternative backtests using more realistic historical trading and leverage costs.

But I'll humor you.. again. Here is a concrete example of why the whole topic is moot:
Suppose you buy $50 worth of SOXL in $1990. Commission cost is $50. Now you have $0. Backtest ends. You've been wiped out by trading fees.

>>56587577
>fannie lenders

The office building across the street from my apartment just put up some Christmas lights today
That's fucking it
Santa Rally let's fucking go
Full stop
No limit
Punch it motherfuckers

>>56587602

>Open brokerage accounts
>Click the buy button a bunch of times
>Close window
I know he hates it but can't stop me from doing it every paycheck. Also achieved my first 2x position today. Feels nice.

>>56587572
So, "anon", what's your plan for sourcing steel, aluminum, plastics, electronics, medicine, and basically everything that we depend on to live, after China cuts you off and there are no more domestic suppliers? Because you created an economy based on money printing?

>>56587580
>you don't understand just how much of our goods and raw materials come from China.
I actually do since I'm in the industry. It would literally be nothing and in a years time you wouldnt even know theres a problem. You saw it with covid so I dunno why you're worried.

>There would be *nothing* in the event of war.
War with china would be a joke and they would never let it come to that because they know. They literally cant even take a smol island, and beyond that they can't even control their own sea, we can operate everywhere within 24 hrs.

my 60/40 boomer portfolio lost like 30-50% of it's value since 2020 when will Jerome give me a fucking refund on this?!

Lucid, more like POOcid haha
Elon give me my money

>>56587617
>there are no other sources for these things!

>>56587623
the bonds portion of that portfolio was supposed to be an inside joke. You weren't actually supposed to buy them.

Think we might be looking at the biggest mortgage fuck up since 2008, christ

Why the fuck is the £ doing so well the past 3 months? Isn't the UK supposed to be crashing?
What is even worth owning in this shitty countries economy?
I shorted the £ trying to be smart and more I'm getting fucked make it stoooop I fucking hate this country this wasn't supposed to happen

>>56587620
Bro this guy isn't worth arguing with, he is a fucking /pol/ tier retard

>>56587608
My neighbor started putting up Christmas lights yesterday. I think he's trying to make up for the fact that he didn't do jack shit for Halloween.

Where the fuck is DJ anon?
We need another green day tomorrow.

>>56587640
You should ask him for his thoughts on the Santa Rally

>>56587520
>I also have backtests
Again with misdirection. The backtest you need to show is the one that validates your claims that, if I have this right which I might not considering how you talk out of both sides of your mouth so much, due to interest, fees, costs, etc. the leveraged rotation strategy is historically unprofitable. You need to state your presumptions of these numbers precisely then show the backtest taking those numbers into account. Instead of doing that your verbal dyslexia has led you to post some irrelevant picture of some other meme bs. You did that because the word "backtest" was uttered so your brain connected that with whatever image you could shit out that looked like one. Your posting style in a nutshell. Anon, this is exhausting and I've come to the conclusion that you are an asshole. You're either doing it on purpose or you have some kind of distorted perception of reality where you don't even realize what you're doing
>>when all else fails resort to ad hominim
>That isn't actually part of any argument I'm making
You did though. I posted a meme broken wing butterfly trade and you used that as the basis for your "muh 5 figure account hur dur" claim. That is a textbook example of an ad hominim. Again, why are you like this?
>You have not provided a valid backtest in the first place
There is a valid backtest I'm sure you have seen it. You claim to have
>provided the facts that render your belief invalid
You have provided suppositions that the costs of holding leveraged ETFs invalidates the strategy. Cataloging the presumed costs is different from proving the costs make the strategy unprofitable. That's the difference. A backtest has been provided and you dispute its results. In order to prove the results are invalid you have to provide your own backtest that utilizes your own presumptions. Where is it?
>Suppose you buy $50 worth of SOXL in $1990. Commission cost is $50. Now you have $0.
Now we're back to verbal dyslexia and misdirection

>>56587620
>>56587628
>>56587637
>I'm in the industry
lol

>>56587632
It can't literally be by the same people...

right?

>>56587612
Based.

Is buying oil here literally trying to catch a falling knife?

>"Public" universities
>You can't buy shares in them

>>56587550
like some fine gentleman told Oswald Mosely one time: new markets are always opening up, back in my day, niggers coulnd´t ride bicicles

>>56587577
nothing ever happens

>>56587612
>>56587666
>On that call, Powell and most of his colleagues reluctantly endorsed buying defaulted Treasury securities — an unprecedented move to maintain financial stability — if a legislative debt ceiling solution did not come in time. Here’s the key exchange between Powell and then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke (options “8 and 9” in the memo are purchases of defaulted Treasury securities and the Fed “swapping” non-defaulted Treasury securities for defaulted Treasury securities):

>MR. POWELL: As long as I’m talking, I find 8 and 9 to be loathsome. I hope that gets into the minutes. [Laughter] But I don’t want to say today what I would and wouldn’t do, if we have to actually deal with a catastrophe on this.
>CHAIRMAN BERNANKE: So you are willing to accept “loathsome” under some certain circumstances. [Laughter]
>MR. POWELL: Yes, under certain circumstances.

>Powell’s willingness to purchase defaulted Treasury securities — however “loathsome” he finds it — casts the entire debate over bypassing Congress on the debt ceiling in a new light. No option under discussion is more extreme, from the Federal Reserve’s point of view, than stepping in and buying compromised securities of uncertain underlying value.

Powell isn't the man you think he is.

>>56587673
The top is when OXY is 66
The bottom is when OXY is 56
Anything in between is free play
Right now OXY is 60, so yeah oil can go lower

>>56587665

>Oil down +4%
Back to eating cornmeal.

>>56587682
>nothing ever happens

>>56587697
I should get some grits

>>56587664
>China

>>56587677
shit. i'm writing like a retard

>like some fine gentleman told Oswald Mosley one time: new markets are always opening up, back in my day, niggers couldn´t ride bicycles

>>56587263
>Can you elaborate a bit more on this? Is it easy to find other LETFs with these structural issues?
Junior gold minors are uniquely terrible. Check out the past 10 years of GDXJ. Crab market with a bunch of fakeout pumps. The key is the investor base. Goldbugs are some of the dumbest fags out there, and will repeatedly try to force a pump on a global speculative commodity that no one really gives a fuck about anymore. Then they get a 5-10% pump, and then realize no one gives a fuck, no one is following, and they baghold back down. Also these are junior minors, so tend to be the marginally profitable ones. Larger minors can make money although the longer term full cycle ROIC tends to be mediocre.
LABU/LABD and XBI are also pretty shit since pharma is a scam industry and most companies are unprofitable. However, it does have a tendency to run for extended periods, which limits the upside of a paired short.

>>56587710
China

>>56587701
WTF I thought it was quinoa?

>>56587701
$0.35 per pound that's two meals $0.175 per meal.

Speaking of China, is there anyplace where i can get a stream to the 3 gorges dam to see what happens in case China goes for Taiwan?

>>56587732
it might be, the grains are too large for grits
but anon was talking about cornmeal and grits are corn

>>56587710
How's that congressional investigation into your agency going, btw?

>>56587250
>blue day
Japanese?

>>56587749
Oatmeal gang

>>56587750
Oh God of course anyone not pro China has to be a glowie when they do more to support China than stand against it.

>Poem anon still hasn't written a poem about losing money in the stock market and surviving on cornmeal.
Why even live man...

>>56587656
I feel like I've been observing your ongoing intellectual struggle with the leveraged ETF anon for about 3 years now

>>56587786
He did and it was about sister fucking.

>>56587767
You don't have to be pro China to recognize that the economy is a walking corpse held up by money printing.

>>56587797
That's the global economy in general. I don't know who the fuck you are kidding. There isn't a single country on this earth doesn't operate on debt.

>>56587656
>The backtest you need to show is the one that validates your claims that, if I have this right which I might not considering how you talk out of both sides of your mouth so much, due to interest, fees, costs, etc. the leveraged rotation strategy is historically unprofitable.
I don't owe you shit, sorry. Provide a valid backtest and maybe I'll counter.
As things stand, the only valid backtest to discuss is my own. Clearly you're uninterested in discussing strategies with real alpha though.

>That is a textbook example of an ad hominim.
It's called an insult. Ad hominem is a fallacy and implies that I'm doing it to improperly disregard some claim. I'm not. It's just an insult.
Hope that's clear.
>Now we're back to verbal dyslexia and misdirection
To clarify, THIS is what an ad hominem looks like. You couldn't dispute my example showing how trading costs can kill a strategy that relies on trading, so instead you spit out some random verbal diarrhea.

Let me know when you get that valid backtest that properly accounts for transaction costs across multiple market/rates regimes. Then we can continue this conversation.

>>56587795
Pretty sure poem anon is a homosexual.

>>56587795
Poem anon was the sister fucker? Okay this is getting spicier.
Poem anon, you never did tell me how many times you sexed her and if you cummed in her. I think we have a right to know seeing as you started this.
Don't blueball us faggot

i think that one guy is so against LETFs because he's being outperformed 9 out of the last 10 years by someone who's just buying SOXL or TQQQ and it infuriates him lol.

>>56587820
Yeah you are probably right

>>56587828
I'm pretty far along in that journey, I'm right in that category of "just buy and hold Tesla" now.

how is gold considered a precious metal is junior gold miners are still finding more of it??

>>56587810
The US government has one of the highest debt to GDP ratios in the world, and that doesn't even account for all the fake money printing done by the Federal Reserve.

>>56587855
Yup and?

>>56587826
i missed this whole thing and have only heard about it in references. now he was cumming in her too? this insane and i am sad i missed the initial posts.

From the moment I understood the weakness of my unleveraged equities, it disgusted me. I craved the gains and certainty of leverage. I aspired to the purity of the 3x Bull ETF. Your kind cling to your dividends, as though they will not decay and fail you. One day the crude index you call the Shit and Piss 500 will wither, and you will beg my kind to save you. But I am already saved, for the Leverage is immortal… Even in death I serve the Neon Greenissiah.

>>56587849
They might be finding more of it but it's in commie countries where they might get all the permits if they donate $200M to the local "community".

>>56587871
Kek this never gets old

>>56587864
AND it's an unsustainable system that's propping up a fake economy with external stimulus. There are no fundamentals. Sooner or later, it *will* collapse.

>>56587793
>I feel like I've been observing your ongoing intellectual struggle with the leveraged ETF anon for about 3 years now
He is very very autistic
>I don't owe you shit, sorry. Provide a valid backtest and maybe I'll counter
*sigh*
Anon, the backtest in the leverage for the long run is valid assuming daily rebalance of 3x leverage and 1% fees. That's the premise it rests on. Think carefully about these two numbers. 3 times the daily return of the underlying with 1% annualized fees. Now, you claim to invalidate this by saying the 1% annualized fee figure underestimates the true cost. Have you read the UPRO prospectus lately? First of all the fees are 0.92% and are waved until Sep. 2024 although that latter point isn't that important. The important thing is the gearing of the fund is designed such that it accounts for costs of leverage on the derivatives it uses. When interest rates and costs are higher the fund gears slightly higher to account for that and achieve the 3x daily multiple of the underlying minus the 0.92% annualized fee. Gayed's paper underestimates the performance of the strategy
>>Now we're back to verbal dyslexia and misdirection
>To clarify, THIS is what an ad hominem looks like
That is a precise description of your posting style which is pertinent to the discussion

>>56587891
So? The whole global economy is fake and gay, China included.

>>56587793
It does seem endless, but it's not a one man battle. I've slowly pushed the more serious LETF fags to shift the goalposts from defending outright LETF buy and hold, to this new topic of LETF rotation which is much harder to fundamentally disprove.
Some staunch LETF fags like Scoopsies still quote pics like >>56585949, although at this point even he seems resigned to endless bagholding. Nowadays he only shows up to spout nigger randomly and get banned.

>>56587828
That would be pretty funny, but no. I'm just a full time trader that gets bored easily. Sometimes I do feel life might be better if I were just dumb and broke like the people I'm arguing with. But then what would be left to do in this general except say
>nigger

>>56587855
Chang, China is at nearly 400% debt to gdp. Take the USA out of your mouth and get your house in order first.

Going to the gym to unfat myself and injure my tendons
Oil better be back above 90 when I get back

>>56587890
>Have you read the UPRO prospectus lately? First of all the fees are 0.92% and are waved until Sep. 2024 although that latter point isn't that important.
Sorry, I'm not touching this one again. Sometimes you make the bait too obvious. On the off chance you're actually serious, please read up on black scholes.
>When interest rates and costs are higher the fund gears slightly higher to account for that and achieve the 3x daily multiple of the underlying minus the 0.92% annualized fee.
Wrong, but even if it were true that's not how leverage works. You can't just leverage harder to avoid interest expense. lmao.

if this is an exact repeat of 2008 then that means the market wont bottom till next year

>>56587949

>>56587949
>Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards

with a little credit crisis mixed in, sure I guess

>>56587901
>>56587932
We currently have 128% debt to GDP. China has 50.5% debt to GDP. China's economy is based on manufacturing and selling us the goods that we need to survive. Our economy is based on printing money.

>>56587867
I missed some of it too. He said he fucked her but he didn't really provide details. Kinda out of order if you're gonna pull shit like that.
>>56587912
>>56587890
I find the discussion interesting. I like to hear discussions about shit that people have put more time into thinking about than me.
I kinda understand both sides.

>>56587949
Pretty sure it was eating shit directly into the 08 election. I was also really stoned at that point in time.

>>56587986
>China at 50.5% debt to gdp
Lol nope. Go lie and demoralize somewhere else Chang, we're all full here.

>>56587912
>I've pushed the LETF fags to shift the goalposts from defending LETF buy and hold, to this topic of LETF rotation which is harder to fundamentally disprove
The goalposts haven't shifted. The argument for years has been risk management via the leverage rotation strategy in the LFTLR paper
The shifting of the goalposts come from anons inflating fees due to the fundamental misunderstanding of how leveraged ETFs work
>>56587947
>Sorry, I'm not touching this one again. Sometimes you make the bait too obvious. On the off chance you're actually serious, please read up on black scholes.
Anon, your entire 3 year argument has rested on the costs of holding UPRO et al being so high that they invalidate the leveraged rotation strategy. This entire argument and all the effort you put into it is invalidated by the simple fact that UPRO et al adjust the gearing to account for the added costs. It's as simple as it is. The objective of the fund is to return 3x the daily movement of the underlying before fees and expenses. The fees and expenses are clearly outlined and add up to 0.92%. That figure doesn't change with interest rates. The operation of UPRO changes to account for the costs and still return what the prospectus says. Anon, you are wrong. Your argument is wrong. The 1% costs in the paper underestimate the true performance of the strategy. Now proceed with moving the goalposts
>You can't just leverage harder to avoid interest expense. lmao
Anon, how can I break this down so you will understand it. If I tell you I am going to return 3x of the sp500 by 4pm tomorrow minus 0.92% annualized fees then I am taking all the costs of the leverage into account to calculate exactly how much leverage is required to give you that return. As conditions change over the days, weeks, months, and years I will make small adjustments to account for that. That's how the ETF works. That's why you are wrong because your fundamental premise that your entire argument rests on is invalid

I might have to gut and remodel a 1000sqft house. I have 165k probably between 145k loan and 20k cash.

>>56588027
why do you need to gut and remodel the bank's house?

>>56587912
The link you posted was me last thread. I literally said there were better options (like buying options). Preferably SPY LEAPS so deep ITM (furthest expiration date) that there is no real extrinsic value. And to buy the LEAPS (at 1.5x to 2x leverage) in a DCA strategy to offset bear markets. Of course that will cost over 20k per contract and you'll need a 6 figure account to DCA properly over the LEAPS time period. Which most anons don't have. I do think that SSO will have similar alpha long term to QQQ/VUG.

>>56588027
If you do that faggy grayscale shit I will find you and make you drink that fucking Valspar.

>>56588003
>https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/CHN/FRA/DEU/ITA/JPN/GBR/USA/FADGDWORLD
>lying on the internet

>>56587175
had to look up what "Standing Repo Facility Counterparties" was
>the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) established the SRF to serve as a backstop in money markets to support the effective implementation and transmission of monetary policy and smooth market functioning. The FOMC has authorized and directed the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) to conduct overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operations with a specified minimum bid rate and aggregate operation limit. When the Federal Reserve enters into an overnight repo transaction, it buys a security from an eligible counterparty and simultaneously agrees to sell the security back the next day. The difference between the purchase price and the sale price of the securities implies a rate of interest earned by the Federal Reserve on the transaction. The FOMC sets the SRF minimum bid rate, which is the minimum interest rate the Federal Reserve is willing to receive in an SRF operation.
>the fed is trying to bring the banks closer to the government in the name of "financial policy".
tl;dr: more bidenomics smoke and mirrors

what does palantir do?

>futures

>>56588012
>The fees and expenses are clearly outlined and add up to 0.92%.
Read the fine print. lmao. The cost you're seeing is purely the management fee.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/totalreturnswap.asp

Again, no one is giving you leverage for free.

>>56588075
provides a vehicle for Alex Karp to liquidate his shares

Smggers writing articles here. Bruv just buy some cheap stock simple as.

>>56587577
>It is now 8 days after the supposed "hack" and users customers still cannot contact MrCooper or pay their mortgages
holy fuck

>>56587632
Everyone posts this and acts like they know what it means
But seriously anons what does this financial nonsense even mean. I got an A in finance and none of these words make sense

>>56587795
>>56587826
I am not the sister fucker
>>56587820
I'm not a homosexual either
I'm just a humble tech investor 100% into 2X QQQ

>>56588122
>I'm just a humble tech investor 100% into 2X QQQ
Tragic.

>>56588129
I'm up 26% overall on that position because I timed the bottom

>>56588048
Its actually my parents house. Not ideal but the house I was buying is gonna get sold out from under me by a partition sale.
>>56588053
I probably can't afford shit since a central air/gas furnace + venting etc is 25k. Needs a whole redone bathroom due to rotting wood etc etc.

>>56588122
that's interesting because I just went full clip into SQQQ at high of day today. cheers

>>56588142
This rally has legs for a few more weeks
MSFT will hit all time high by eow, and then keep going
But I might set a trailing stop loss tomorrow anyway, you know, just in case

>>56588122
>I'm not a homosexual either
There's hope.

>>56588157
may the best chad win

>futures

it's unbelievably unfair that i don't get a sister

>>56588171
Based.

>>56588086
Anon, the UPRO prospectus says that it returns 3x the daily return of the underlying minus fees and expenses of 0.92% annualized. It is very explicit about that 0.92%. If you think that is a lie then take some of the "millions" from your NVDA "profits" and buy a bag then sue them for damages. Otherwise accept the fact that you have argued falsly for 3 years. Wasted 3 years of your existence arguing something that you could have corrected yourself by looking at the prospectus for 5 minutes. 3 years versus 5 minutes
I'm gonna summarize it for you again. UPRO does not say that it will provide daily returns of a 3x leveraged sp500 minus any and all fees and costs whatsoever. It says it delivers 3x minus 0.92% annualized. Nowhere does it say it will return 3x minus all possible fees and costs sorry about your luck if interest rates rise. It says precisely what it will deliver and it's up to the fund manager to figure it out. They "figure it out" by adjusting the leverage slightly up or down as necessary to meet the stated objective. That's how this works. You are confused and I can see how that is possible since you really really want to believe that you've discovered some kind of gotcha but you haven't. You have misunderstood how the ETF works. The expenses affect the work the fund manager has to do to achieve the stated objective. The fees do not affect the objective itself which is 3x daily return minus 0.92% annualized. I don't know how to say it any simpler

Is all of China in Antarctica too?

>>56588108
They werent raided -- yet. Another mortgage company was and at 6am fannie mae is now reviewing all new loans.

>>56588160
Sometimes I wish I were a homosexual. Since I'm not as scare of talking to men as I am women... I might have a chance at getting laid then.
But alas... I'm only attracted to women
ALSO WHAT HAPPENED TO FUTURES

gta6 is around the corner and take two is one of the biggest jews in the market

you think this might be a buy?

>>56588075
Someone said that Palantir is Excel with Call of Duty interface

>>56587051
>Sell something you actually own and buy options
Classic biz-tier advice

>>56588110
It means it will be more difficult to sell mortgages to FANNIE AND Freddie. Less people will get approved loans.

>>56588205
it was in jest

>I will post one image with this ticker every day until I triple my money, then I will shout "I told you so" until you get tired of me, and then I might start shouting racial slurs.

>>56588203
theres tranny in the game. i bet its some woke shit since none of the old people worked on it.

Wanna get hit with some nostalgia?

>>56588193
>ALSO WHAT HAPPENED TO FUTURES
nothing. nothing happens in futures until after extended hours are closed so the jews are free to do their thing without goyim getting in the way of their manipulative tactics.

>>56588190
thx for the clarification

>>56588203
Fucks sake I cannot wait to see the absolute spectacle that game will be. I guarantee it became a parody of everything it ever parodied. Anyway, to answer your question, yeah it will probably make billions. Either that or flop so hard it causes the next great gaming industry crash.

>>56588122
What's funny is that you have more money than all the 4 and 5 figure fags attacking you, combined. Assuming you're the guy who did the Rocker interview... I think you, me, and Scoops have the highest portfolios here. Most anons can't even max their retirement accounts. Cheers.

>>56588204
shit hook me up

>Oil is cratering because of recession fears
>cheap Oil prevents recessions, boosts profits, strengthens economic activities

>yields cratering because of recession fears
>zombie corporations get yet another lifeline by once again refinancing debt at heavily discounted yields

>stock market retracing because of recession fears
>read above
>read above
>markets didn't read above and piling into stocks anticipating a return to easy money policies
>stocks vault higher on their own leaving the fed with no intention to waiver from their stance

>>56587229
If they are publicly saying that they expect 650billion in losses, you know it's probably higher?!

The dildo is ready
The lube will not be applied

what is the most leveraged volatile ticker other than futures?

>>56588250
Damn what a TANK Lizzie is.

>>56588186
I'm impressed that you even opened the prospectus, given the low effort of your previous replies. Still, you could try reading more carefully...
>other fees to financial intermediaries, which are not reflected in the table and examples below.
I'm not surprised they try to keep it as vague as possible, in order to bait in retards like you. Although it is possible that they're exposing themselves to some future lawsuit. To clarify, they're talking about their swaps here. At least with direxions LETFs, they're honest enough to put a more complete disclosure in their footnotes.

Again, no one is gifting you leverage for free.

>>56588271
Fear is the opium of the masses

I'm just gonna come out and say what everyone is thinking
I would fuck Janet Yellen. Everytime she talks about rate hikes my little friend gets a little hike as well. I would take her out to a nice dinner and then we would have the most passionate sex afterwords, falling asleep in each others arms.
I would whisper in her ears:
"Did you like that pump?"
while brushing away her gray hair.

Then I would fall asleep listening to her snoring, only to wake her up with some coffee and eggs.
After seducing her for long enough, she would eventually let me into the Jewish club, where I would gain access to their infinite money printer.
Then I would drag her into my pile of money and we would make sweet love on the Benjamin's.

>>56588250
My current net worth is $586k with $234k in retirement accounts, $231k gambling on tech, and $121k in cash

>>56588051
>Preferably SPY LEAPS so deep ITM (furthest expiration date) that there is no real extrinsic value.
LEAPs still suffer from decay due to risk free rate. It's part of black scholes. I don't think black scholes is perfect, but MMs are smart enough to account for the risk free rate.

>>56588250
There's a few of us at 6 figs, like 2 at 7 from what I remember.

>>56587577
HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
>HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
>HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
>HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
HAPPENING STATUS: IT'S
https://therealdeal.com/new-york/2023/11/07/meridian-capital-under-investigation-by-freddie-mac/

Anyone with over $200,000 should not be posting here. You just need to wait 10 years to be wealthy, why are you fucking around in smg?

>>56588338
I GOT NOWHERE ELSE TO GO.

>>56588337
gonna git good

Hmm so far the gov's race is neck and neck. Please god let the current gov win. A 10% pay hike hangs on it. (plus he done a good job far as I can tell)

>>56588346
WELL WE'RE OUT HERE IN THE TRENCHES
WE GOT NO CHANCE OF GETTING RICH THE BOOMER WAY
WE HAVE TO BE DEGENERATES
YOU DON'T HAVE TO
BE FREE
GO
LIVE YOUR LIFE

>>56587533
OKTA getting pwned has probably led to a spectacular daisy chain of hacks. Long CRWD to clean up the mess.

>>56588365
>crwd
reminder that this stock dropped 66% for no reason other then Jews fucking retail so they could buy cheaper

>>56588288
Anon, it's okay to be wrong. Even to be wrong for 3 solid years. It would not be dishonorable for your to accept your error and learn from it. Despite this being the chans, I will not give you shit for learning a lesson today
>Again, no one is gifting you leverage for free. I'm not surprised they try to keep it as vague as possible
Yes they are being purposely ambiguous but that's to be expected. That also helps forum warriors like yourself argue for years over your own misunderstanding.
Again, they're not saying they are leveraging sp500 3x. They're saying they are returning 3x daily of sp500 minus 0.92% annualized. That is the top line and what they are bound by. There is a subtle distinction there and you are missing it. The statement you highlighted is a technical distinction that doesn't make a practical difference in the daily return of the fund since the fund gearing is adjusted every day to return 3x the underlying minus the explicit fees I mentioned earlier. Let me repeat this, THE FUND GEARING ACCOUNTS FOR CHANGES IN DERIVATIVE EXPENSES SUCH THAT THE FUND RETURNS 3x DAILY MINUS 0.92%
You seem to think that this is difficult to do for some reason but it is a trivial mathematical exercise and it happens automatically

>>56588360
Sorry, son, I don't make the rules.

>>56588338
The opposite, actually. If you have less than 200k there's little to be gained trading. It's one thing if you want to get a headstart learning, but if you're actually successful than you'd have 6 figs in no time.
For most people though, it would make more sense to spend this effort towards getting a better job.

>>56587826
Guys I have a theory about the sister fucker.
He mentioned that he "brushed her teeth".
Maybe she's disabled and can't move but still enjoys being fucked, but they can't realistically let any stranger come and do it so...

>>56588337
>Ralph Herzka
TKD?

>>56588108
Good. If those lazy Millennials can get a "pause" on their student loans for years, us hardworking Boomers should be able to get at least a few months break on our mortgages.

>>56587589
That's just dry winter air fucking with your nose's capillaries. Or aliens abducted you. That's also a possibility.

>>56588386
I appreciate your dedication to this blatant trolling, but I have other things to do.
It was a good joke but lets move on. We both know you're not THIS retarded.

Again, no one is giving you that leverage for free.

holy fuck
computers
look at the buddies!

>>56588320
Go to SPY, furthest expiration date, furthest ITM. You'll get 1.8x leverage. Breakeven is $451 (3% increase from current price). Basically 1.5% interest per year (for 1.8x leverage) for the length of the contract. Long synthetic futures, spreads, margin, loans etc don't come close to that.

>>56588302
Good shit anon. You have me beat.

>>56588333
There have been two more anons that have posted 6 figure accounts now that I think about it. Still not great for our collective autism.

>>56588338
Get a job.

>>56588420
Okay autismo. Give it some thought while you do "other things". I've tried to explain it to you as simply as possible
>Again, no one is giving you that leverage for free.
The implications of your argument regarding leverage here is that the cost of the borrowing scales exponentially such that you can never borrow in such a way to return more than 3x daily. However, think it through, if you can borrow enough to return 3x you can borrow enough to return 3.1x or 3.2x. The work the algorithm running UPRO does is figure out exactly how much needs to be borrowed to return 3x the next day accounting for the cost of borrowing. That's not a hypothetical. That's exactly how it works and it is very simple. A little extra gearing is put on to account for the expenses and pay out 3x the next day minus 0.92% annualized. That's how it is that's how it will be if interest rates are 10% that's how it will be if rates are 0.25%. That's what the backtest is based on and that's why you are wrong

>>56588288
To put a finer point on what you highlighted you're paying "costs associated with using derivatives" by being geared slightly higher than 3x but only receiving 3x daily returns. Which as a technical distinction is a "cost" you are "paying". But you still get that 3x minus 0.92%. That's what you're misunderstanding

>>56588386
>>56588473
On the slim chance you're actually unironically not trolling about this retarded free leverage meme, I've pulled up the actual swap financing costs straight from the latest annual report in Edgar.

Here you go. The answer is that the precise cost of leverage lies between 5 and 6%. Note that UPRO has 2 turns of leverage, so total finance costs are over 10%. This expense is before adding the management fee, as I've previously noted.

>if you can borrow enough to return 3x you can borrow enough to return 3.1x or 3.2x.
First off, this is not mentioned anywhere because it's not actually something UPRO is doing. It's just some meme bullshit argument you're making to waste more time.
Secondly, even if they were doing this, the perceived benefit is still based on a complete misunderstanding on your end of how leverage actually works. Leveraging up more doesn't magically negate costs, it ADDs more costs. The cost would only be negated if S&P rose enough to offset that cost.

>>56588470
>Good shit anon. You have me beat.
for now...
This is my burndown chart if I can't find a new job soon

oil bros
who shorted the market
how could the government let this happen

>>56588526
Are you fucking with me here? I'm telling you the gearing of the fund is adjusted upward to account for those borrowing costs. I never said the leverage was "free". I said the fund is geared to account for the costs because it literally is
>First off, this is not mentioned anywhere because it's not actually something UPRO is doing
Fucking lol you don't have a clue about how this industry works

>>56588337
o shit

>>56588333
>tfw very low six figures
it's a special sort of hell

>>56587627
Fukken gottem

It's literally over tomorrow isn't it bros
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRJGVbMtzBQ

>>56588526
I can't find it right now but there is a website where the top line beta slippage of most of the leveraged ETFs is tracked and UPRO matches the 0.92% annualized almost perfectly. If you don't believe that then calculate the beta slippage yourself since interest rates started to rise and see how well it tracks. I'd do the work for you but I've already explained how it works so I'm not gunna

>>56587577
Checked. Some banker hasn’t been paid for 8 days…. Who’s gonna pay that interest? Those LATE FEES ?

>Israel accidentally blew up another Egyptian military outpost and then gun’d down the survivors
ZIM will be $1 soon

>>56587649
No, he should ask if he holds any NATGAS, and if the answer is no, then move immediately before the property values find out.

>>56588470
>Breakeven is $451 (3% increase from current price). Basically 1.5% interest per year (for 1.8x leverage) for the length of the contract.
You don't pay interest on 1x leverage. Think about it. When you hold a portfolio of 100% SPY what expense are you paying?
You're not getting some magic discount. I don't know why you all seem to think you've cracked the market and found some secret loophole to get these magic discounts.

It does beat typical margin you'll get from a retail brokerage though, and with negative yield curve right now there is some slight benefit going further out the curve, assuming liquidity is decent.

>>56588526
>Leveraging up more doesn't magically negate costs, it ADDs more costs. The cost would only be negated if S&P rose enough to offset that cost
>leverage scales infinitely bro. You can never return 3x because the borrowing costs would be infinite lol
You are functionally innumerately retarded

>>56587675
LINC

>>56588562
No
https://youtu.be/j2sqxGUzCc8

>>56588390
That's referring to an old /a/(?) meme where anons were told to offer to help brush their sister's teeth and one got lucky.

My mortgage is with Mr Cooper

>>56588250
Don't forget KO Boomer, he's got a breddy respectable stake built up.

>>56587844
You should take a half step by buying and holding TSLL.

>>56588582
>You're not getting some magic discount. I don't know why you all seem to think you've cracked the market and found some secret loophole to get these magic discounts.
What are you talking about with your bullshit strawman arguments? Here's a simple example. ProShares needs to return 3x the sp500 tomorrow for UPRO by whatever means necessary. 3x leverage on the backend of the fund will not accomplish this due to the fees associated with the derivatives. Therefore they borrow at slightly higher leverage, 3.05x or whatever is necessary. The 3.05x leverage will return 3x to holders of UPRO. That's how it works. Nowhere in there is mention of "magic money"

>>56588610
We are so back

>>56588634
He gets paid a government salary. He talks big.. but every time he "bags more VZ" it's like 1 share

>>56588333
I make 250k gross and blow it on stupid shit. I bought a gaming laptop with a rtx 4090m

>>56588222
Yeah, /smg/ has its moments. Also checked.

>>56588575
sauce? all I see is something about a truck with water
There is a not-insignificant possibility of Egypt and Jordan going to war with Israel if this war keeps going for much longer.

>>56588563
>>56588543
>>56588590
>>56588641
Your dedication to this trolling is respectable, but I'm done now. I had some curiosity in looking up the actual swap rates since the funds keep this information hidden in the more public-facing prospectus summaries. Now that they've been presented, there's really nothing else to say.
You can stay delusional and pretend you're getting a free lunch, or you can accept the truth.

Here's a fairly recent datapoint on SOXL swap finance costs as well - in case anyone in the thread was curious. Again, this expense applies for each turn of leverage.

>>56588647
Has he ever posted anything besides a list of tickers with the coke logo (formerly ATT) at the top?

>>56588669
You mean other than his posts describing the hentai comics he reads?

>>56588647
He's got a kick ass retirement calculation so probably stuffing that sucker breddy good every chance he gets, it's got to be of some decent size to result in those numbers, no?

>>56588669
Occasionally he posts about fucking his wife.

>>56588276
Possibly one of these https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-etfs/

I think NRGU's put up some pretty impressive historical volatility numbers, somewhere north of 200 for multiple days in 2022.

>>56588441
Buddy, the only computer I'm looking at after hours is MARA Computer when they report earnings tomorrow.

>>56588662
I'm dedicated to countering your retarded fud. You say that the leverage rotation strategy backtest is flawed because it assumes 1% fees. You base this on a misunderstanding of how the fees are incorporated into how the leveraged funds work. Nobody is saying the fees don't exist. I have said this at least half a dozen times. ProShares gears the fund a little higher than 3x on the backend so that the return to fundholders matches what the prospectus says which is 3x daily minus 0.92% annualized. You could post as many images as you want because nothing in your strawman is in dispute. Nobody is saying borrowing is free. Literally nobody. You are lying by putting those words in peoples' mouths. UPRO is geared such that it returns the 3x. The gearing is adjusted as derivative costs change. It doesn't matter if the borrowing is at 10% or 0.25% the gearing is changed such that the daily RETURNS are 3x. Period. That's literally how it works. You are the one trolling now that you know you're wrong

>>56588691
The retirement is a pension from his government job. Yes, it's probably a lot of money over 40 years (or however long he lives), but it's not a future income stream, not an asset, so you can't really count it in net worth without doing some funny math.

>>56588717
>but it's not a future income stream, not an asset,
Meant to type: "but it's a future income stream, not an asset"

>>56588070
>Biden had a hand in this
The Fed rules this country. These smoke and mirrors have been going on for a lot longer than Biden's term. Repo crisis; Sept. 2019. Etc.

>>56588712
To add just a little here, the indirect cost of gearing the fund slightly higher to return 3x minus 0.92% annualized is the possibility of the fund getting wiped out in a single day black swan is a bit higher. Normally you would assume at best you would get wiped out if sp500 drops -33 and a third percent but because the fund is geared slightly above 3x you would only need to drop maybe -32 or -31%. That's the risk of the extra gearing and that's the "cost". Naturally the fund would not liquidate exactly at the expected percentage drop but the risk is still slightly higher

>>56588333
I'm another 6fig hell. I kind of assumed it was the default for people who don't immediately blow up their accounts. 4figs come and go like raindrops, 5figs either stay the course and get to 6 or blow their whole stack on absolutely retarded shit and despairpost asking if it's over (protip: it's not but you are stupid if you lose 100% of a 5fig networth in one trade). I don't know why anyone with 7fig and up would post here (OK maybe if you are low 7fig in Cali or NYC. But honestly why not just move out at that point and live like a king literally anywhere else. if you have a high enough value skill to get to 7fig you can probably WFH anyways.)

>>56588419
>Or aliens abducted you.

>>56588722
Ah, I see the distinction there.

>>56588575
EIS disagrees.

>>56588717
You can do the math though. If you need help you can always call JG Wentworth.

>>56588171
damn upskirt low angle and food pic
dios mio

>>56588581
kek

>>56588669
Yeah, I think he revealed once that he's in low six figure hell

>>56588747
Can you sell off your pension though? I'm not sure anyone would buy that since you could die the day after closing and that's the end.

>>56588737
>Normally you would assume at best you would get wiped out if sp500 drops -33 and a third percent but because the fund is geared slightly above 3x you would only need to drop maybe -32 or -31%. That's the risk of the extra gearing and that's the "cost".
Literally impossible. Max loss is 20% https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/nyse/NYSE_MWCB_FAQ.pdf

>>56588550
>mfw been at ~400k all year now
I dun fugged up in second quarter.
>>56588653
lol nice, Ive dialed back my consooomerism. Havent even been out to eat in like 4 weeks now.

>>56588741
All I'm saying is watch this and let us know if it rings any bells: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPIO72sJZNU

>>56588761
It is theoretically possible if an instantaneous drop exceeded -33 and a third percent in which case the circuit breaker would not trip the drop was over. The odds of that happening are astronomically against but it is possible

>>56588740
Even if I was in 7 I would still be here I think, dunno what else I would do with my time.

>>56588778
>This video is blocked it in your country on copyright grounds

>>56588759
Well a pension is just an annuity in concept, but it depends on the source. It's illegal to sell a federal pension, although I believe KO anon is a state worker. I doubt he'd want to sell anyway, but the point is the valuation math is the same. Some companies offer lumped some payouts on their annuities.

>>56588783
I don't give enough of a shit about this but that would defeat the entire point of circuit breakers. I think the exchanges would literally just bounce orders below 21%. Same as if you tried to, I dunno, buy oil for a negative dollar amount. Just a crazy impossibility.

>>56588794
>I don't give enough of a shit about this
Me neither frankly but it's still good to know your risks and game it out
You could imagine a scenario too where before the -20% circuit breaker tripped the sp500 was hovering around -19% and then had an instantaneous drop to -33 and a 1/3 percent. That is also very unlikely but it's less unlikely than the previous example

>>56588761
Think about it. If the market is halted, who are they transacting with to rebalance the leveraged ETF?
and then what happens if the market gaps down again overnight?

Realistically this is probably never gonna happen, but it could.

>>56588792
>>This video is blocked it in your country on copyright grounds
>alien abduction videos are a grift
I'm shocked

>>56588792
>The aliens cut off anon's Youtube VPN access
Oof, the double whammy.

>>56588816
Yeah, but it's a good and spooky movie.

>>56588816
Kek

Holy shit oil is actually finished. How retarded would buying USO leaps here be?

>>56588806
>mason is flashing 33s in the thread
take notice.

>>56588835
Oil crashing right before Bibi invades all the countries bordering Israel.

Wow, PWR is such a garbage stock. I love shorting this piece of crap.

What are your guys' favorite shorts right now?

>>56588582
Jesus Christ I literally showed you leverage at 1.5% per year cost. With actual current options prices. Fuck off and get a real account. I can't with you poorfags.

I have $2k in cc debt and I get paid tomorrow. Should I use my paycheck to pay it off or go all in on DUOL puts?

>>56588866
>shorts
Checked but no thanks

hory shit bros I've been sitting here for a few minutes trying to figure out why tradingview is showing the "wrong" price for the front month VIX future contract, refreshing the screen and everything comparing it to my futures account and I now realize TV rolled the front month to the December contract at market open today
>.

>>56588793
Well the way my retirement works is this;agency gives me three options basically at retirement time, lump sum, monthly payment till death, or I can take a slightly lessor monthly payment till I die but if say I die before my wife does, she'll get so much for x years after my death. The lump sum is a fools gambit. One the tax hit would be nuts. Two, its a one time thing, once its gone that's it; I'd get more by doing the monthly payouts, three I'd forfeit other benefits that go with my retirement by taking the lump. Then there's also my 401k which is a totally separate thing.

>>56588877
Fortunately all my current shorts are in the December contract. Fucking arguing over leveraged ETFs is driving me nuts and getting me defocused

>go to mcdonalds drivethough
>wait a bit, say "hello?"
>"JUSTASECONDSIRRRRR~" screams a sassy fat black lady through the speaker
>wait for an eternity
>"OKSIRWHATUWANT"
>say "let me think about it"
>make her wait
>I think I'll have the....
>double....cheeseburger...
>and a coke
>pause
>diet coke...eh coke zero
>"IS THAT ALL?" she says, clearly frustrated as I draw out the conversation
>"hold on....I think....yeah...yeah let's throw in a fries with that"
>fat black bitch basically throws my bag into my car when I pick it up
>tell her she forgot ketchup
>she's about to break
>the restaurant is empty, she just wants to get back to playing on her phone
>throws the ketchup at me
>I drive off real slowly, give her the finger

So yeah, short MCD


So yeah, short MCD because

>>56588888
CURSE YOU LETF FUD ANON

>>56588888
Based, fuck ETFs. I'm cash, and checking your digits, I'm out until next year. Shit's fucked. Watching Margin Call as advised the other day.

>>56588610
>DJ anon
We're green tomorrow faggots

>>56588888
Fucking wasted

>>56588888

>>56588868
You're such a genius. You've truly outsmarted the market. All of us bow before your greatness.
>I literally showed you leverage at 1.5% per year
Oh wait a minute...
I don't see the screenshot?
And the market's closed so there's no live bid/ask?
And you're trading SPY options instead of SPX because...??
And you're calling me the poorfag?

beating earnings estimates by 40% means that the share price should go up 40% right?
Don't answer that, it is rhetorical. I know the answer.

>https://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/caliber-sues-union-home-mortgage-raiding-51-employees#:~:text=This%20time%20Caliber%20Home%20Loans,in%20origination%20volume%20last%20year

How fucking deep does this mortgage rabbit hole go?

>>56588915
Which stock?

>>56588890
When are we replacing them all with robots?

>>56588905
>>56588910

>>56588920
Do you not remember the 08 fallout? Mortgages prop everything up. Always will.

>>56588926
They tried to replace the cashiers with the auto-kiosks but black people kept punching breaking them for no reason

Video related:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/I2RVPfLUhkg

Does oil normally fall November/December?

>>56588888

>>56588951
A bit, yes.

>>56588923
its a secret and believe me it is better that way

>>56588912
>And you're calling me the poorfag?
Because you're no where close to 6 figures and won't be any time soon. Good luck with that "account" of yours. Singular. You're a shitty troll but your financial status makes you even funnier.

>>56588910

>>56588950
not surprised.

>>56588965
OK, well just consider what type of people own the stock in question - hot money idiots who just aped in or die hards who've been bagholding a crab for two years? Is the 40% surprise actually just a couple pennies or caused by Q4 revenue being shifted forward or perhaps already Priced In? And that's before you get into the guidance or earnings call.

There are lotsa factors that can allow some beats to actually boost the stock.

>>56588896
>dog died
>33 left

>>56588964
This is how I know you're larping. Completely ignored my vague allusion to section 1256 tax benefits, and instead went straight for the pointless insult.
Cope harder, retard.

We out of fucking yeast or something?

>>56589025
Ok, baking...

Next

>>56589047
>>56589047
>>56589047

The thread continues...

>>56589049
>>56589049
>>56589049

>>56589025
>>56589053
>>56589055
Amazing, great job

>>56589053
>>56589055
incredible work guys

>>56588662
You know what, I got you bro. An example so simple even your brain could grasp it. Here goes:
Let's say I have $100 and I want 3x returns so I borrow $200. But interest rates are plumb fucking retarted I have to pay 10% daily on the borrowed money. So instead of being 3x leveraged I'm only 2.8x since I had to pay $20. That's $80 principal and $200 of borrowed money. But here's the rub, I'm contractually obligated to return 3x of sp500. So what do I do? I borrow an additional $22, pay the 10% on that and add the $20 to the $280 bringing the amount of money in the market to $300. That's $78 of principal and $222 borrowed funds. I borrowed $222 and my principal has been reduced to $78 so I'm a bit more than 3x leveraged, but my contractual obligation of returning 3x to my account holders will be fulfilled since I get the effect of 3x leverage on the account. What is the "cost"? Increased risk of ruin from the higher leverage
Do you get it now how ProShares can return 3x to its shareholders almost regardless of how interest rates fluctuate?

>>56589053
>>56589055

2x leveraged /smg/

>>56587390
That's retarded, China imports the vast majority of it's ore and energy.