/biz/ - Business & Finance

Baking

JOE CHINESE MARKET SETPOINT BIDEN

Baking.

>>56585469
that's a man

Is selling credit spreads a good way to make money safely and consistently or no

>yep, almost all of these faggots are NO NATGAS NIGGERS, even this dippin' goin' on today
>all they can think about is a bunch of TECH TROON shit

>>56585469
Eso es un hombre

>At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?

anyone else got a big LODE?

I hate mumu's so much its unreal

i went out for coffee
while researching cheapies
the barista said that
i gave her the creepies

>>56585467
It's legitimate financial advice. Not busting the guy's balls.

OK, maybe a little.

Econ dude, here is your guarantied tipple btw. Hold shares for a year, options liquidity is garbage. Do your own research.

>>56585534

>>56585537
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semaglutide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tirzepatide

>>56585559
>both for type 2 diabetes
Not important.

What benchmark does everyone use, by the way? SPY? Fed funds? A simple, conservative portfolio of 50% TQQQ, 50% SOXL?

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2Wi0m5qPMc

>>56585572
Anon, come on, some people might actually fall for your trolling.

>>56585571
Benchmark of what?
I listened to one smart anon a while who told me the correct measure of the market is to simply watch DXY. I have done alright by taking his advice.

>>56585585
Hey I posted the ticker. You'll see.

>>56585507
No. Trading credit/debit spreads is all probability based and you will have to find some sort of market directional alpha to make money (long term). Look at a SPY credit/debit spread which has the highest liquidity (gives you better odds). Calculate the delta/odds of your strike points. If you create a spread with a (calculated) 75% chance of success, you'll need at least a 77% win total (or somewhere around that depending on liquidity) to even break even. There are pricing mismatches with volatility skew/smirk/smile. But that won't give you any real gains long term. You should track the large spreads placed daily by big money but that takes more resources and autism than anyone here has.

>>56585589
To know whether you're trading goodly enough or not.

>>56585527
>i went out for coffee
Thought you were piss poor poem anon...

>>56585571
SQQQ

>10 year US treasury yields

>>56585595
If number green, then you are doing good
If not green then no

Did you guys know that all stocks eventually go to zero?

>>56585598
I had a SBUX gift card

Anons, I have a major announcement to make that will affect the markets for years to come

>>56585593
I'm rooting for you like I root for all anons, but a 320 to 480 target? Really? When a humongous part of their customer base is going to stop being fatty tub tubs?

>>56585618
don't tease me

>>56585564
You guys saying that AI is a bubble and don't understand the arguments made for it or semiconductors are literal retards.

>>56585571
Bonds and SPY. Anyone with half a brain could full port or blended port into either or both of them with a few clicks a year, so if you can't beat that you're wasting a lot of time actively managing your assets.

>>56585608
yeah thats why house paid and royal chad pmg

we're officially in a recession
now what

>>56585618
I'm all ears.

>>56585618
Are we pulling a Korea and banning short selling?

>>56585618
N

>>56585618
please speak, sir

Crooked and deceitful market for charlatans and sodomites.

>>56585608
No, the market gets closed if it's ever that bad.

>>56585619
I understand you feel that way. Its why the stock tanked. But things are coming out that show that your theory is wrong and that people will still get diabetes because they are retarded. Also, check last earnings. I'm telling you anon, keep an eye on it.

>>56585628
are you pajeet tech anon who kept saying NVDA will be undervalued even after it reaches 1000 USD per share, and that your source for such a thesis was that you "work as a software dev"?

>his stock didn't go up 100% while paying out 50% dividend yield

>>56585633
50% SCO, 50% FCFS, I guess?

>>56585506
I slurped the dip the last two days and if it dips again tomorrow I'll slurp a lil more

>are you pajeet tech anon who kept saying NVDA will be undervalued even after it reaches 1000 USD per share, and that your source for such a thesis was that you "work as a software dev"?

>>56585618
>affect the markets for years to come
Without a doubt, if more and more continue to do it for free.

>>56585650
but the german stock & bond market did go to 0

>>56585657

>>56585680
It literally went to zero multiple years in a row

OIL BROS I'M GETTING FUCKED IN MY ASS

>>56585608
msot money is created via lending the same money over and over again. that is why when mortgage rates rise and people take less mortgages or businesses take less loans then you have less money creation during that time

then when people buy stonks= somebody always receives cash. so stonk market dont actually "suck" money out of system at all it just the price of stock paper inflates

>>56585680
>>56585688
I'm gonna need to see that in the form of a cheeky graph

>>56585683
put a fleshlight on the end of that, speed it up and glue a semi on top so you can call it AI and you'll make millions anon

Well cheap shares may be coming soon. 401k plans are being drained like mad. Not mine though, fuck that, I'm rolling into mine like crack twice a month.https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/americans-401k-plans-bill-payments/index.html

>>56585667
I've been slurping a bit farther back but definitely went a lot heavier the last 2 days, and am prepared to go *much* deeper. The niggers should learn from your wisdom of not going in too deeply, too soon, and keeping some dry powder on hand for whatever else might come.

>>56585624
>>56585631
>>56585634
>>56585635
>>56585636
>>56585645

Listen up SEMIconductor FAGGOTS
I have breaking news.
Just a few minutes ago, a massive ore vein of semiconductors was located underneath a Hamas tunnel system.
The Israelis are already excavating the area.
You shitheads have 10 minutes to sell all your SOXL and semiconductors before they go to zero.

Also fuck jannies.

>>56585710

>sell my last Wheat at 580.88 today
>have all my buy orders set up
>it quickly dips to my top order at 565.13 without me realising and bounces back up
based

>>56585710
dont semis require sacrificing asian children? pretty sure you dont just find them laying around in the dirt

>>56585710

>>56585692
Holy fuck we need Bibi to flatten the middle east right fucking now. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!

>>56585723
>he doesn't dig for his semis
I bet you buy them from the store like a retard

>>56585710
>Also fuck jannies.
based.

>>56585720
Are you trading Pszenica futures, cfds or something else.

>>56585710
There is nothing real about the israel fud. Market said..."no your not" over the last few weeks. The only people that believe it are zionist conservatives and zoomer liberals. We are at peak huxley world.

Boy, Friday was the wrong day to start buying a little TDW. Thank God for stops.

>>56585736
>he doesnt sacrifice asian children in his basement and bind their souls into silicone wafers using black magic
kids these day will never know the joy of a fresh semi wafer straight out of the oven just like the railroads use to make

I don't like how it's just crabbing at the top
Push through god dammit!

*GULP**GULP**GULP*
>OIL

>post yfw you laugh at Russelfags

>>56585766
dam I am mirin son

>>56585617
What did you order

>>56585766

This shouldn't be a shock to anyone with a brain but I hope this bubble pops and cheap shares rain down like crack soon or next year. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/household-debt-credit-card-delinquencies-q3/index.html

>>56585788
Triple latte and a sausage sandwich

>>56585762
Hory shet, that's a pretty sharp drop. I've bought/sold them several times before and have a certain liking for them, but only own NATGAS futures based holdings presently.

I did not realize cash interest in my brokerage wasn't the same thing as money market! I've been missing out on 10x the yield this whole year! AAAAAAAAAAAÀAAAAaaaaaaaAAAA

My job has no work for me so I'm shitposting FUD while playing vidya on my 4090m laptop

>>56585618
im ready for anything

>>56585774
>laugh at Russelfags
up 5% on the week what you laughin at

>>56585795
I suspect that, unlike nat gas, there may be NIGGERS associated with Tidewater. It's the only explanation.

Surely oil can’t go any lower

>>56585710
Israel will flood the world with semiconductors

>>56585571
My benchmark is the meme backtest of the 200 day leveraged rotation strategy run on QQQ and TQQQ. If I don't make 9 trillion dollars in the next 50 years (with annual benchmarking) I will consider my life a failure and probably kys myself

>>56585822
It’s going to $30 before having a ceiling of $60 for the next decade

2023 just wasn't my year

>>56585826
>200 day leveraged rotation strategy run on QQQ and TQQQ.
can you explain the strat? i to want to set impossilble goals to justify kms

>>56585766

>>56585825
I wonder if they're considered essential or whatever. Half of EIS' collapse is from all the wagies being sent to the front line.

JUST FUCKING DO SOMETHING AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>56585791
That webm is pure cringe

>>56585841
>when it gets overbought sell TQQQ and buy QQQ
>when it gets oversold sell qqq and buy tqqq
yw

>DDOG 28.85%
>SNOW 10.76%
>ESTC 7.96%

You niggers need to get off leveraged semiconductor etfs and start posting software stacks. Either there's a short squeeze we all missed out on or something really good happened along with interest rate pause.

>>56585820
As a general rule, only international NIGGERS fuck with shit out in the water, and our domestic NIGGERS stay on shore with a decent margin because they can't into swimming and are afraid of sea monsters.

haven't been paying attention to the market for like a month
why the +7% rally the past week?

I guess the real thing to do was just sell derivatives like a kike to mumus and bobos

>>56585858
We like to have fun here.

>your daily reminder that when ZIM (israeli shipping stock) gets low enough smg can become a major shareholder in a legit company that will recover
We need to do a $4 bloodpact

>>56585867
Sentiment got washed out and Yellen issued a funding schedule where she eased up on the TLT murder.

>>56585867
market thinks feds just paused basically

>>56585729
>it says "SOXL" on the wafer
holy shit kek

>>56585867
FED and treasury optimism

>>56585859
that sounds like to much effort and for that reason i'm out

>>56585793
This is how I imagine you writing your poems poem anon am I close to the real deal?

>>56585858
As good if not better than a bollywood blockbuster

My new make it strat is to start fucking a 65 year old secretary at Ren Tech until they get me a janitor job there and I can invest in medallion

>>56585872
>Investing in jews.

>>56585858

>>56585901
No I don't know any women, nor do I own that many books, nor do I have any portraits
Usually ideas for poems come to me while I'm cooking a ramen packet or something stupid
I appreciate the sentiment though

>>56585841
When QQQ is above the 200 day moving average you buy TQQQ. When QQQ is beneath the 200 day moving average you sell TQQQ and buy BIL and collect the risk free rate. Wash rinse repeat. The idea is when the index is under the 200 day moving average that signals high volatility and less likelihood of having consecutive days of positive price both of which are terrible for TQQQ since you suffer more leverage decay. However when QQQ is above the 200 day, that signals potential smooth sailing, low volatility, and positive consecutive price days all of which are spectacular for a triple leveraged daily adjusted product like TQQQ

>>56585920
Anon we would become the Jews

>>56585935
Ew, I'd rather stay poor.

>>56585867
oversold

>>56585931
can you just send me an email when i need to rebleance or can my female broker auto setup this? i'm not trying to do any work here

>>56585841
Research "leverage for the long run" and "the long term behavior of leveraged ETFs." Basically you buy UPRO above 200 MA, and sell below. But you'll be trading multiple times per year on average and will be hit by short term and long term gains. SPY can hypothetically be leveraged 3x optimally, with QQQ at 2x. You can also do calculations based on average/median IV (and historic backtesting) to find optimal leverage amounts. That being said, 1.5x to 2x leverage with SPY (that ETF specifically because of liquidity) is preferred for long term growth (Assuming you're using LEAPS at furthest expiration date and a DCA strategy) The deep ITM LEAPS have low extrinsic value and give you better leverage long term, than the daily volatility drag LETFs.

>>56585894
Anon, that's probably like 1 trade a month.

>>56585928
Once you publish your poem book things will brighten up. This is how I imagine you writing your second poem book.

>Your supposed to short on green days, why are you buying!
Wonder what happened to that guy from last thursday..

>>56585949
The real alpha comes from shorting leveraged ETFs.

When should I stop paying my student loans off and just go for basic minimum payments? $10,000 sounds comfy but I might stop at $13,000 since they wont shut up about 10k forgiveness.

the good guys won

>>56585962
can you do it for me? i'll let you have 0% of the profit

How long does it take first funds transferred into Fagelity to settle?

>>56585928
I like them

>>56586024
It should be instant so its probably your bank/credit union dragging its feet for the first time. I can usually trade immediately even while the funds are still transferring

Also adorable, welcome to the club. Please share your strategy

my 15400 NQ short looks great :) fuck crabs and fuck mumus

>>56586010
Doubt until the LORD GOD Almighty returns and cleans house.

I choose a bad week to get into Sqqq.
Oh well.

>>56585948
That takes less than a minute in TradingView to setup alerts. Maybe 5 minutes to mirror that in your broker by updating a stop or limit buy order.

>>56585948
>can you just send me an email when i need to rebleance or can my female broker auto setup this? i'm not trying to do any work here
The author of the leverage for the long run paper referenced by this anon >>56585949 runs a signal surface at https://www.leadlagreport.com/ where he will email you weekly when you should buy and sell the leveraged rotation strategy along with his other strategies like the lumber and gold strat. It doesn't get any easier if you want to follow along with the guy who came up with the whole thing. Although he favors long treasuries when you rotate out of equities and we see how that worked out the last couple of years so there's that

>>56586010
we will be back

>>56585969
Ok well I'll try to keep that image in mind as a goal
>>56586037
thanks

>>56586012
What kind of retard would work for no money like that? You'd have to have absolutely no life or ambition.

>>56585949
>>56586056
>Basically you buy UPRO above 200 MA, and sell below.

Is it really that easy? Has anyone else backtested this strat?

>TKO earnings
How we feeling Hulkamaniacs?

>>56586039
Well, the funds being available to trade was instant, but it's still not settled/available for withdrawing. (You) might be the one who usually gives me shit about HOOD and argues for Fagelity. I ultimately listened, transferred most of my capital, and am awaiting those sweet SPAXX payouts.

Every microdip is getting bought today. Unreal.

OK, enough gay market analysis and thought. FNGU or SOXL?

>>56586039
Oh, and with NATGAS especially, I'll not trade on unsettled funds because I need to know for sure I can sell that shit whenever without concern.

>>56586090
Nta but you can still trade and buy. The only exception is that since it's not "settled" you'll get in trouble if you sell whatever you buy before it actually settles

Also check your core position. It's likely already SPAXX so you're already good for the monthly divys

>>56585867
basically >>56583724 which will result in >>56584224
sp higher for longer in both indices and fed funds rate

WHAT THE FUCK I GET UP TO TAKE AP ISS AND I LOSE $200?!

why energy crater today

>>56586056
noice but i'm not paying for ths shit

>>56586115
>>56586111
Yep, much appreciated though.

>>56585751
CFD forwards yes

>>56586119
Energy not needed

>>56586073
There's a certain anon who hangs around here that absolutely hates the strategy and comes up with many reasons why he thinks it sucks but at the end of the day it's a trend following strategy and the point of trend following is to avoid the long tails of buy and hold. The long tail of buy and hold with leveraged ETFs is basically lose everything so that's something you'd be mindful to avoid. Is the 200 day moving average the absolutely optimal way to do it? Probably not but it is very easy to understand and very easy to reason out why it would work. The downside of using such a simple strategy is there will be times when you suffer a -50% drawdown. The standard deviation of the strategy is around 50% so I consider a -50% drawdown an acceptable number. You may not and you may sell the bottom. If you think you can stomach it then give it a shot. If not, consider using less leverage, maybe 2x or 1.5x
>>56586121
>noice but i'm not paying for ths shit
Set some alerts on tradingview for free

>>56586119
German industrial production collapsed like 1.5% in a month. People are shitting bricks over recession.

NVOS. Reverse split. Lol. Baggies got railed. NVOS Borrow is easy btw. For shorting. I'm warning you. Idiots. Short on every pump until it eats shit.

NVOS.

I'm not even joking pic related (1/3 pics ill post the rest) is a millionaire bagholder/shareholder texting the NVOS CEO desperately to not do a reverse split. Guess what happened yesterday lmfao.

>russell once again calling out the fake and homosexual market

not a good look mumu

>>56586155
Huh, that's a company? I'd've figured that ticker was a gimmick 1.25x NVO short ETF.

>>56586151
Germans are turbo fucked. The cost of energy is actually raping them

>>56586155
Pic 2/3 of millionaire bagholder texting NVOS CEO desperately

>>56586010
Me, I'm good guys

>>56586169
Pic 3/3 of millionaire bagholder texting NVOS CEO desperately wherein the CEO texts him back. This whole thing is unironically a really sleazy scam and people are going to go to jail.

And there are shares to borrow for shorting, plenty left on most brokers tbhonest.

>>56586135
Based.

>>56586181
up 1250% today. modest gains

>>56586155
>not avaialable to short sell on schw
no puts either

>>56586181
did you ever figure out why the forest was quiet

Fidelity just called, they won't give me my money back WTF

>>56586141
>Is the 200 day moving average the absolutely optimal way to do it?

Some guy on bogleheads backtested a range of DMAs, 235 was found to be optimal:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5229792#p5229792

>>56586224
Why did you buy bbby

>>56586197
It's surprisingly an easy locate for shorting on IBKR
>>56586222
Yes. I figured it out a long time ago. I'm waiting for you to answer. Answer me. Why is the forest quiet.

>>56586224
No refunds

>>56586167
It's an actual scam that has been around for years. They reverse splitted after luring in baggies to pump stock

markets still front running an imminent FED policy shift.

>>56586227
It's been a while since I read the original paper but Gayed, the author, did backtest multiple numbers and found anything between 10 days and 200 days works. I'm sure higher numbers work. 235 may be best historically but there's no way to predict that is the best number in the future. 200 is really close to 235 and a lot of analysts use the 200 day as a market bellwether giving that particular tea leaf some weight. Paul Tudor Jones swore by the 200 day moving average and not long anything that was under that number so there's that. Seemed to work out pretty well for him

>>56586073
>>56586141
Not that anon, but you’d need to be a contract/securities lawyer to put any serious money in this strategy. The IBs that issue these use swaps and derivatives to create the leverage and youd have to be certain that you aren’t getting portions of your leverage called and redeemed if we saw a couple full circuit breaker days. And there’s no way this strategy works outside of us markets meaning that if/when the world starts calling BS on the treasury this will probably go to zero.

Also the volatility drag will kill you with daily leverage. Anyone on wall street that wants to do something like this would use ITM calls like someone else said

NQ +1%, boomer DOW + .16%. It's not a bubble

Janny banned all the based dairy posters... Buy PYPL financially speaking...

>>56586263
>Also the volatility drag will kill you with daily leverage. Anyone on wall street that wants to do something like this would use ITM calls like someone else said
I don't see any problem with using ITM leaps calls with the strategy. LEAPS calls with 80 or 90 delta on SPY will have roughly 3x leverage so just use that instead of UPRO if you'd prefer it. For what it's worth it seems that if what you predict comes to pass, SPY would be under the 200 day long before the treasury market blew up so you'd be in cash anyway. I don't see much danger in short term 0-3 month tbills for your cash in almost any event

>>56586292
why buy PYPL here when it will be 44 dollars in a year?

>>56586305
Buy more in a year if that happens.

>>56586292
Why buy PYPL when it's not NATGAS?

>>56586292
>praises Janny and shills PYPL
What mental illness is this?

>>56586236
The first is quiet because you touch yourself at night benchod

>>56586318
u are the dirty chutiye who is doing the madarfucking touching of ur katua lallu peeeeeeeenchod

>>56586141
I mean the guys chart starts out immediately with like an 80% drawdown in the depression

>>56586336
Imagine buying the FDR dip...

when am I supposed to take my profits?

>>56586222
Checked. Not him. Because it has nothing to say to_________. W/e derogatory you wanna do: Pol, nigger,bong,burger,etc.

>>56586302
>>56586263
>the volatility drag will kill you with daily leverage
forgot to address this specifically. Volatility decay is a well understood phenomenon. Like I mentioned above when the underlying is above the 200 day average, volatility is much lower and historically this has been the time we see consecutive days of positive gains. That latter means the volatility "decay" actually works in your behavior since you reset to 3x leverage every day. The point of the strategy is in large part to avoid the negative effects of volatility decay
>>56586336
>I mean the guys chart starts out immediately with like an 80% drawdown in the depression
And still manages to massively outperform. Something to be said for that

>>56586316
Didn't praise the janny i said the fag banned the based dairy posters and I had to add a financial comment to avoid a ban. Buy ORLEN financially speaking.

>>56586348
It only outperforms because the 80% loss happened at the beginning of the period AND because he created a hypothetical situation where a dealer is willing to give you 3x leverage when every bank in the country just failed. ITM options are just rented balance sheet and there’s no balance sheet to rent in a situation like that. Anyone with cash is buying on their own account not giving you retarded risk/reward at their own expense

>>56585653
Can someone explain to me how AI (very large deep learning models) are hindered by semiconductor hardware? Like what needs to change from NVDA / other semiconductor bhenchods for AI to get better.

>>56586141
>There's a certain anon who hangs around here that absolutely hates the strategy
Bad math leads to bad outcomes. I don't hate you, but as long as you keep spreading your lies I'm going to keep correcting you.
The 1% management fee that leveraged ETFs charge is not the only cost you're paying. There is no free lunch.

Check out RORO and JOJO for practical examples of Michael Gayed ETFs performing in the real world.

>>56586344
Wework just went bankrupt.
So maybe now?
https://4techmix.com/2023/11/07/coworking-space-wework-goes-bankrupt/

>>56586344
When the fear/greed gauge hits extreme greed

>>56586381
FAG indexes are worthless

>>56586377
Exactly. If there’s an actual problem the cost of levering equities would be well over what credit card rates are today if you could even get access to it

>>56586380
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1Z89zW-8sY
just started playing so you might be right

>>56586376
Semiconductors take up chipmaking resources. So the hindering is the speed of the production output. AMD for example is going to be cutting their production of high end gayming GPUs so that they can produce more AI chips and compete with the riding AI market.

I don't know really understand your question you should be more specific. What kind of improvement? Speed? Price? Power?

>>56585506
Natgas companies just dump and then dump and then they dump some more after they get finished with the initial dumping. Tough industry, no growth, what's the bull thesis. Even without adjusting for inflation the entire industry has shrunk below the 2008 depression low.

>>56586377
>Check out RORO and JOJO for practical examples of Michael Gayed ETFs performing in the real world.
Both started just before the largest all time bond bear market with very short track records and neither of which run the strategy as outlined in the paper we're discussing thus irrelevant to the discussion
>Bad math leads to bad outcomes. I don't hate you, but as long as you keep spreading your lies I'm going to keep correcting you.
The 1% management fee that leveraged ETFs charge is not the only cost you're paying. There is no free lunch
You haven't corrected anything. You've spouted unfounded hypotheticals for years. You have provided no backtest disproving the strategy and you've provided no rules for a superior strategy. You also are confused on the relationship between interest rates and trend following strategies. You pretend that higher interest rates are worse when in fact they are better so trend following should outperform in the future despite presumably "higher for longer" interest rates
>The 1% management fee that leveraged ETFs charge is not the only cost you're paying. There is no free lunch.
Nobody ever said it was so you are the one telling lies trying to shove words in peoples' mouths
The fact that there are costs associated with leveraged ETFs is not in dispute. It's on you to provide a backtest showing that these costs are high enough to make the strategy unprofitable. As usual you have not and you won't
>>56586373
If your condition for the strategy failing is a depression as severe as 1929 then okay I guess

>>56585571
SPY is the industry standard benchmark.

WTFWT????

>>56585571
>What benchmark does everyone use, by the way?
I check if the yield is high enough to increase my revenue without falling into a yield trap

please try to stay on topic guys, i know it's hard. instead of explaining what SPY is and what index management fees are can we instead talk about the impending global market meltdown catastrophe?

>>56586496
>companies
Found the problem.
BOIL/KOLD/UNG.

>>56585571
SPY for NYSE, IXIC for Nasdaq

>>56586344
On what?

>>56585571
Spy/spx/uvxy & iwm at times. XLE at times and sometimes Qs to see what the coomers are goin on about.

>>56586376
CUDA GOAT. AMD a shit.

>>56586516
Because a lot of Boomers and large fund managers need a reasonable benchmark. Us /smg/ degens are far more flexible and risk tolerant.

>>56586263
>Also the volatility drag will kill you with daily leverage.
It doesn't kill you, it just impacts overall performance; stop being so histrionic. So the 3x ETFs don't make the full 3x, big deal. You still beat the underlying.

>>56586549
>buying BOIL
This is your longterm investment thesis? This shit is worse than penny stocks.

>>56586396
These ETFs would never pay credit card level interest, but real rates are 2-3% now and any counterparty bank would also be charging at least 0.5-1% on top as they tend to for standard margin loans. There is some small risk associated after all. While circuit breakers visibly prevent a repeat of Black Monday, the truth is that unless there's sufficient liquidity in such a collapse, you can't close the leveraged trade anyway. This may seem like a black swan that'll never happen, but wars and pandemics do happen occasionally. Plenty of foreign stock exchanges have halted and ceased trading entirely throughout history, only to never reopen again.
The point is not to say that I think those things will happen, but that no one is letting you gamble on their money for free.

I'm sure that fag will reply to this about how leverage doesn't matter though. He'll spout some absolute cope about how paying more money is actually bullish as fuck for these strategies. Conveniently quoting once again the singular ETF that won in the one period where leverage actually was free, with fabricated data to pretend that it would've been historically amazing.

Semicondcutor NERDS are ruining chip production.
HAVE YOU NOTICED HOW YOUR DORRITO BAGS HAVE LESS CHIPS?
Yeah.
Its the semifags.
They're stealing ALL the chips. Even the cheetos.

>>56586570
Literally everyone who manages broad-sector funds uses SPX / SPY as the benchmark, and specialist funds use their sector ETFs as the benchmark (e.g. biotech specialist hedge funds use XBI)
Not just "large fund mgrs". You can't have a retarded benchmark or else no one serious will give you money as an LP in a hf

>>56586548
but I refuse.
https://i.4cdn.org/wsg/1698832191518342.webm

>>56586549
>BOIL/KOLD/UNG.
I wonder how many thousands have been lost listening to you boiltards.

ah yes another epic nothinghappens day

>>56586573
>longterm investment thesis
(You) should definitely avoid NATGAS.

Power half hour?!

>>56586573
Our resident nigger-hating nat gas trader buys and sells, he doesn't just buy and hold.

My plan is to retire in SEA since i’m from there. Realistically, if I could sell covered calls for $2k a month It would be pretty sweet.

Any glaring loopholes in my plan bros?

>>56586573
You're supposed to trade the swings. It's not for long term investing.

>>56586589
>tfw allergic to the new 3 nanometer chips

>>56586609
I don't know about the ones listening to the BOILtards, but the ones who have listened to me and followed the instructions made good money.

>>56586621
I'm up 2.5% today brah, what's up with y?

I sold my apples

>>56586583
Where are your backtests with your meme percentages, meme interest rates, meme fees, and meme costs showing that invalidates the strategy? You don't have it because you haven't done the work. You're just sitting around arguing hypotheticals. The backtests that have been done all show the strategy does what it says, avoids the catastrophic drawdowns of leveraged ETFs while giving exposure to the upside, profitability in the long term above the benchmark. No backtest is perfect because nobody knows the future but actually having backtests showing gains trumps what you have because you have nothing and you have shown nothing. If you have something I'd like to see it, until then you're just shitposting. Since that's what you've been doing here for years if you'd taken a fraction of that time and generated some data you would actually have a case. Or you might actually see that you are wrong

>>56586632
people will only argue in bad faith when discussing leveraged anything.

>>56586641
up about 4% today
im just bored

Anime feet.

OTCfags, listen up.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1812-brewing-company-buy-maggies-035900331.html

>>56586655
Fair enough, carry on

>>56586632
If you are buying and trying to time an upswing then a chart that only ever dumps is the last thing you want to do that on.

>>56586676
Counter point: 3D pits.

>>56586509
>Both started just before the largest all time bond bear market with very short track records
Odd. So the backtested period with fabricated data is trustworthy, but not actual performance of live ETFs....
>You haven't corrected anything. You've spouted unfounded hypotheticals for years.
Sorry, but cost of leverage is not a hypothetical.
>You pretend that higher interest rates are worse when in fact they are better
I don't even have a response to this level of cope.
>It's on you to provide a backtest showing that these costs are high enough to make the strategy unprofitable.
I don't need to waste my time plugging in data and running charts for you. Look up what commissions were like in 1928, or any point in time before 1990. I'll just tell you, typical commissions were a percentage of the overall trade, somewhere around 1-2%. Online trading brought that down to fixed pricing at around $50 bucks at first, and even through most of the 2010s there were still single digit commission costs. It's trivial to understand that daily rebalancing against 20th century trading fees goes bust within a year, even ignoring hypothetical margin costs which weren't even available. lmao.
My disproof of your backtest is simply that it was impossible. It is not a real world example. When there is no real world example possible, the hypothetical data DOES NOT MATTER. It is all imaginary. It is all irrelevant.
>you've provided no rules for a superior strategy
I've already posted one in this thread. There is serious alpha in shorting LETFs. >>56585995
Yes, it's been backtested. Apparently by your logic that proves that it is infallible under all future conditions.

>>56586676
Ultra based
>>56586696
Giga based

>>56586624
It's a very important distinction that I do not hate Black people, which has nothing to do with NIGGERS. Unless of course they do not have any NATGAS.

>>56586583
No bank that has a ton of balance sheet capacity is extending credit to an ETF in the middle of an actual credit crisis for anything under 15% per year. You could say this isn’t relevant anymore since no bank is allowed to fully fail, but there isn’t a dumbass on wall street that is going to offer a 33% collateralized loan on equities when you could buy senior secured junk bonds at 12%+. The strategy “survived” the Great Depression because it is completely hypothetical and has no basis in what leverage costs would have been at the time if they could even be obtained

>>56586589
Potato chip company response to inflation has been some of the most devious. Price stayed same while every few months the weight content of the bags decreased. 325 grams. 275 grams. 250 grams.

>>56586693
Yeah definitely no dips to be bought or upswings to be sold on UNG over the past 6 months or so.

>>56585507
Credit spreads have a major disadvantage of requiring you to hold for a specific period of time before you get reasonable profit. You're better off buying regular options.

T+1 pushed back till September so far.

>>56586583
Nigger the fucking federal government was borrowing money at 13% overnight in 1980 and you’re asking ME to find out what interest rate would be more reasonable than 0% on a 33% collateralized stock loan?

>>56586699
Oh jesus fucking christ the fact that you point to >>56585995 as some gotcha moment is so absurd lol. Yeah nice, just ignore the HUGE differences between the two strategies where SOXL is very clearly well outperforming everything else, and how it looks like we're about to even take another leg up like 2020 - 2022. Dumbfuck hahahaha

>>56585469
Is her looking uglier after launching an onlyfans page psychological because I just find pornstars less attractive, or because something about becoming an only fans whore makes women just physically uglier?

*cracks open 3rd can of bangs*

$5k realized profits today

You know, I have to say, while you guys are as schizo as ever today, you are much more lucid in your schizocity.

>>56586724
Wtf? Sauce?

>>56586738
kick ass, BLESSED and fuckin' BASED

>>56586727
Wrong reply but you know who this is for

>>56586738
Maybe switch to mineral water? All that sugar isn't good.

>>56586696
You're a good man with excellent tastes

>>56586749
I just Binged "when is t+1 stock trading" and it showed up somewhere in there, I think a State Street article. It said it was supposed to be March but they are asking for an extension and it's looking like Labor Day.

>>56586758
i limit my carbs so that i can drink 3 cans a day
don't ever respond to my posts ever again

>>56586767
Fucking Jews. Or Boomers. Fucking Jew Boomers. Whoever's responsible.

>>56586738
Based

A yield curve overnight reverse repo SPY/M2 consumer loans personal savings interest payment just flew over my house!

>>56586734
she got stupid modifications done to her already mid face

>>56586769
Why not?

>>56586749
>>56586767
>>56586771
>So far only India has moved to T+1 and that happened earlier in 2022.
https://www.statestreet.com/us/en/individual/insights/getting-T-plus-1-right

>>56586769
sounds fat. I'm going long on Pfizer because of you.

>>56586699
>actual performance of live ETFs....
Now you're lying again through implication. The ETFs are not representative of the strategy under discussion. This dishonest misdirection is a tactic you use a lot. I wonder why
>Sorry, but cost of leverage is not a hypothetical
You are saying the cost of leverage invalidates the strategy. That claim is hypothetical until you prove it. You won't prove it because in the context of this strategy your claim is false
>>You pretend that higher interest rates are worse when in fact they are better
>I don't even have a response to this level of cope
I realize this might be unintuitive to a newb but when a trend following strategy gets a signal to go to cash, that cash earns interest. The higher the risk free rate the more trend following earns on its cash. Most trend following strats spend about 1/3 of the time in cash
>I don't need to waste my time plugging in data and running charts for you
Of course you won't because you would then realize you have wasted years of energy and time arguing against something and been wrong the entire time. That would probably be devastating. However, you must test your presumptions on actual data and show your work. Until then you are just masturbating on the board again. You masturbated it when you sat around pretending to buy the NVDA bottom and selling the top tick a few months ago and you're doing it again bashing other strategies without any data. You never actually back up anything you just talk people to death
>>you've provided no rules for a superior strategy
>I've already posted one in this thread. There is serious alpha in shorting LETFs
You posted a fucking chart going back a few years during a single market regime with no rule set and no rigor as to how the strategy would perform in any other regime. This is your "superior strategy"? I could come up with dozens of joke strategies that would outperform what you posted in that time frame. You're a fucking fraud man

>>56586377
>There is no free lunch.
SPXL rebalances daily and matches within a cent or two of 3x SPY's performance. So yeah, there pretty much is a free lunch while things are green. But you'd lose money with your own leverage on a red day too, so I don't really know what your point is.

>>56586729
>it looks like we're about to even take another leg up like 2020 - 2022.
the fuck am I reading??

It's going down
I'm yelling "Timber!"

>>56586792
stay mad
im rich and fit and banging gook pussy 24/7 and you are mad

WHAT NEWS JUST BROKE???

>>56586811
Yeah see, what the fuck are you even trying to say with that image?? That you DON'T think it's going to do it again? Do you actually have a reason or...?

>Janet Yellen: “Stocks are not our concern”

Now just what in the fuck was that?

>>56586808
>so I don't really know what your point is.
The point is that SPY is flat for 2 years now. It has to exceed 6% nominal annual returns just to break even on the leverage, before accounting for any leverage decay.
Seems like a pretty obvious point. I'm really not quite sure why you LETF fags struggle so much to understand the concept of cost of leverage. Although I suppose it's inevitable.. If you were capable of comprehending this concept, then you wouldn't be an LETF fag.

>>56586830
Stock market computer is filing for bankruptcy

>>56586847
Yes, people working under the table and depositing $600 is her concern.

nice move into the close for my NQ short

>>56586843
The time period you referenced as a "huge leg up" resulted in an overall 38% decline against a period where SPY gained 24% due to massive stimulus.

>>56586849
I told you. This was the bulltrap.

WHAT THE FUCK WHAT THE FUCK WHAT THE FUCK

Yikes, lots of sell orders last minute

Tommorow is gonna be red, bear rally ran it's course

>>56586881
Deal w it bulltardbro. Love u.

whoa black betty

>>56586313
Natgas has contango, PYPL doesn't

>>56586874
>Namefag
>Coomer
>Doomer
Yeah I don't think I'm gonna listen to you.

>Janet Yellen, when asked about the large foreign aid packages and their affect on inflation:
>"the protection of America's interests and its allies wellbeing is far more important then any temporary market instability"
>markets tank on this news

Hit me with your best happy merchants

OH NO I LOST HECKIN 0.05% of my gains for the day what will i do??? SAVE ME NIGGERMAN

>>56586850
>Hurrr durrrr I'm just going to look at the last two years of insane economic data and act like it's going to stay this way forever
>Even though real world policy is shifting back towards money printing
Get a load of this shit

>>56586873
Oh jesus christ okay faggot - from APRIL 2020 TO JANUARY 2022. That should temporarily appease your extreme autism.

>>56586881
>>56586883
>>56586891
>>56586905
>Literally bounces right back up
Lmao you guys are DESPERATE hahahahaha

>>56586915

Ding ding ding! How did it go today anon?

>>56586850
Right but everything else capturing the broad market over 2 years is also looking pretty bad, so people holding plain unlevered SPY aren't exactly getting rich either. So you're saying I shouldn't expose myself to risk because nobody else is making money either?

>>56586632
>just swing something with negative alpha, brooo

and just like that the closing dip gets bought

>>56586925
Blew another $30 on a stupid 0dte call gamble.

>>56586918
>Lmao you guys are DESPERATE hahahahaha
I'M NOT DESPERATE I'M JUST FUCKING ANGRY ALL THE GOD DAMN TIME
WHY DO YOU THINK I GO THROUGH $900 IN HEADPHONES EVERY FUCKING GOD DAMN MISERABL EFUCKING SHIT YEAR OF MY LIFE
>>56586925
+1.35%

>>56586850
I think you have some kind of verbal dyslexia or something. Like you know the words "leverage decay" and "interest rates", etc. but you don't combine them in a coherent way that actually refutes anything you're arguing against. You realize that
>SPY is flat for 2 years now
is irrelevant to a trend following strategy such as the one under discussion right? You also realize that while the price of SPY today is similar to the price 2 years ago a lot has actually happened in between those two dates and the strategy would have you in and out of UPRO profitably. You do realize that right? You also realize that while you were in cash you would have been earning the risk free rate right?
I could go on but I don't want to overwhelm you. Please think carefully to formulate arguments that address the points made and not just spewing more incoherent verbal diarrhea

>>56586925
+0.56

Ooo that's sour.

>>56586829
ok harsha

>>56586776
Yeah thats a good point but its not just that, her eyes are more soulless in the second picture too.

>>56586925
>-2.48% after daily inflation

>>56586888
who are these ugly men?

>>56586925
+.31%

>>56586925
0.93+
Finally took a dip in oil

>>56586771
>>56586790
My ignorant to the actual details guess is that there is some temporary holding shit with it gaining interest that they skim that someone isn't wanting to give up.

>>56586902
My namefag is a combination of coomer and goombler and I deseve it now as a form of punishment.

>>56586925
These doggone broken wing butterflies are giving me hell. GOOD THING MY 3x LEVERAGED ROTATION STRATEGY IS MAKING FAT STACKS much to this guys chagrin >>56586850
hahahahahhahahahAHAHAHAHhhahahah

>>56586977
>AND a mentally broken masochist, which explains everything
Also, that's a man.

>>56586950
that's the ssris doing their job of creating a stupid bitch that no one wants to be around after they shoot cum in her dried up cunt

>>56586925
https://i.4cdn.org/wsg/1697823536769325.webm

>>56586925
Back up a bit, close to my ATH of two days ago, made some good Wheat trades (selling and buying again cheaper intraday).

>>56586925
Down a little but boughted a lot more NATGAS and prepared to buy a lot more still.

Also how many of you fags are /sp/ posters?

>>56586907
>temporary market instability
Waller save us turn on the printer nowww

>>56587001
>>56587001
>>56587001

>>56586829
any white person can bang gook poon 24/7
talk to me when you have a live in white gf that cooks and cleans and can speak english.

>>56587091
I have a white wife who does that, you fucking loser.

>>56586925

>>56586925
-2%. I'm being a stubborn bobo. SEVEN GREEN DAYS IN A ROW COME ON.

>>56586995
me