/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56489867
Zillennial here
Did housing prices go down after the 08 crash?

>>56490134
They did briefly, you could get absolutely incredible deals on places that were finished, but many builders an heroed and quit developing. Then stuff recovered and never looked back. I pity the fools who have been waiting for the crash since 2018. Housing will never be that cheap again.

>>56489867
kek.
housing is never going to crash. everyone bought in at 3%. supply will remain low and millions of pajeets, chinks, and mexicans keep flooding into the country

>>56490134
yeah my immigrant mom bought her house in 2009, after coming saving up 100k in 2 years. She bought it for 215k, now worth about 650k.
She gets the title next year becuase, she is done with the mortgage.

the person who sold it built the the house for 285k and put 50k of custom shit in it. He was illquid and wanted to get rid of this property because he was out of state.

>>56489867
the economy will be fine, it's suffering but it'll recover -- but first we need a recession for that to happen.
and we're getting one, too.
it's stocks and other assets, like houses, that will "crash"

Be careful what you wish for. If the housing market crashes, EVERYTHING (including crypto) crashes hard with it. Also, don't expect to find ANY open jobs in the job market, and expect to be laid off from your current one.

>>56490174
>everyone bought in at 3%

Hedge funds, you mean. They borrowed as much money as they possibly fucking could at those low rates. Turned them into rentals, and will own them eventually once the renters pay off the homes for them. Rates should have never ever been that low.

>>56490174
Either housing crashes or your bank account does, schlomo

>>56490189
How does a female immigrant save 100k in two years

>>56490134
depending on the area. urban places like NYC and SF fell only a little. Overbuilt areas in Florida and Phoenix got wrecked hard.

>>56489867
You'll never own your own house, deal with it.

>>56490554
She was an experinced nurse of 15 years, who got a bonus of 15k just for joining that podunk town. Plus a lot of overtime and dirt cheap rent and expenses. Small towns are so fucking good, if you don't care about the hustle and bustle.

>>56490731
They're not really a deal anymore thanks to WFH

700k homes in suburbs will be 500k in rural towns

>>56492205
This is kind of reversing. Roundrock texas (north of austin). has homes (> 2000 sq ft) for about $380,000.
I underestimated the faggotry of san francisco people, they even find austin underwhelming, they are fucking back to california in droves. LMAO
Surely, you wont get pricing of 2008, but there are deals to be made.

>>56493637
Round Rock has 123k people, that's not a "small town"

Austin's market was propped up by cheap credit, and the cheap credit got pulled.

>>56493637
is this a nice area, what are the best places in texas? I was originally looking in austin but it can be anywhere in the state.

>>56490134
>Did housing prices go down after the 08 crash?
Yes, immensely. It'll happen again. there is always a top to a market. No one is going to keep paying an extra $200k on top of the previous sale price for the same shitty flipped house every 2-3 years forever.

>>56490134
Yes. But the big score was buying a foreclosed property or a short sale. There were many of them

>>56494092
This. When the avg normie with an avg salary can’t afford a mortgage payment on an avg house you know we’re in a bubble

>>56490134
it was a once in a lifetime fire sale. In an area by me, homes were staying on the market at 200k or even sub 200 that are now worth over 600k. Rent for a 2 bedroom was under 900.

>>56494016
As someone who used to live in Austin for years, I can confirm that Austin has become the San Francisco of Texas.

Tech yuppies, the new bourgeoisie class, and wealthy out-of-state migrants have caused housing prices to skyrocket. Many inhabitants of Austin can not afford to live within the city limits anymore.

>>56494062
It is the suburb of austin, people with families travel to the city from here and leander.
You still have to account for traffic. It is a good place for hybrid workers.
San Antonio is still cheap, but the opportunities are lacking compared to austin. If you want to be near the airport, I would also try Buda, which is in the south of Austin.

>>56494135
It was really hard to get housing in the early 2010s. Almost as hard as 2020-21. Everything listed would get multiple offers over asking on the first day. Banks held most of the properties and only wanted to sell to people with cash.

I have zero sympathy for millennials who didn't buy in the 2010s.

>>56496392
>I have zero sympathy for millennials who didn't buy in the 2010s.
Not everyone could because the job market was shit until maybe 2017-18. No one had any savings during the 10s because millennials were just getting out of college or teenagers or in their early 20s. There wasn't anyone waiting to buy or prepared to.

>>56496686
Pretty much this. I had 0 savings until like 2014, and that was because of severance. I didn't even consistently stick above $10k until 2017.

>>56496686
I don't need your sympathy. Wages are going to average up. Housing going to stagnate for a couple of years, but will eventually start moving up again after 2027.
Things will proceed as normal, with the rate falling to 1.8% towards the end of the decade.
The only play to make right now is to get your wage closer to 200k and and save for a Fat Fucking downpayment (> 300k). Also marrying an economically alligned parter is going to help reach this goal faster.

You literally can't gamble with bpd whores or irresponsible "GROWN ASS"" (urban woman) women with mind of children.
Columbus Ohio is also a good place to buy house, with all the corpo factories coming to the area.

>>56494062
Fort worth

>>56496686
That's cope.

I graduated college in 2011 and made ~40k.

Rented for 2 years with roommate, got minimal raises, bought a house in 2013 - house was 225k.

>"you're going to be house poor"
>"homes are a lot of maintenance"
>"why would you want to stay at one spot in your 20s"
>"the suburbs are boring"

All cope, these morons were deep in student debt, and spent everything they earned. They couldn't qualify for a mortgage because they made bad decisions.

They had 10 years to fix it, and lock in low rates. Zero sympathy.

>>56490134
i think the bottom was around 2012, at least here

>>56496392
80's looks pretty bad

>>56489867
your not allowed to buy a house. have you ever considered playing the guitar while 30% of your pay goes to your landlords equity?

>>56496930
Renters are impulsive and want immediate gratification. They spend everything that they earn. They look at things in terms of monthly payments with no thought as to how their long term finances are impacted.

>i'm only paying 2200/mo to rent the house
>why would i buy a place for 2500/mo?

It doesn't go through the mind of a renter that their rent will eventually be increased. They don't take into account that their job will always pay them more every year.

They don't think about the tax benefits of owning a home. They don't understand amortization and how each year they pay less interest. They don't know that property tax is capped.

Nothing matters to them other than monthly payments. These are the same retards who lease cars.

>>56494848
My parents live in Buda, its a very nice place to live and its shocking how theres little ro no homeless people meanering around being right next to Austin. Its definitely not cheap though.

>>56489867
you had 14 years

>>56497463
What the fuck is this graph? 25% of Gen Z owned homes at age 18? And then sold them?

>>56497684
>They don't take into account that their job will always pay them more every year.
Making alot of assumptions here

>>56489867
You fucking dingaling. You want a house but are you looking at any actual housing data? If you were, you would fucking know you aren't getting a "cheap" house any time soon.
>>56494092
It really won't though without a catastrophic even that is so catastrophic housing will cease to matter. People say '08 but '08 wasn't just about housing, it was about the solvency of the entire United States financial system due to synthetic collateralized debt obligations. Houses weren't *just* overbuilt with non-existent credit standards - massive amounts of synthetic debt larger than all the subprime loans was originated too at about a 1:5 ratio. So for every shitty loan to a dead person, there was about 5 times the mortgage amount in "bets" between banks.

In order for something like that to happen again, it would imperil the entire interlinked financial system of the world. There are very few things that can do that besides World War 3 at this point. So you'll either be dead or have to wait 100 years and be... dead. It's called "once in a lifetime" for a reason.
>>56494120
>When the avg normie with an avg salary can’t afford a mortgage payment on an avg house you know we’re in a bubble
We're there already. Right now. I see life operating quite normally and lots and lots of apartments being built for all the poors who can't afford houses.
>>56496930
>Wages are going to average up.
No they won't. Real wages - think purchasing power parity - haven't budged in 40 years due to ever increasing wealth inequality. The rich are getting richer and corporations are gobbling up the little guy. 52% of the US workforce was employed by a small business 20 years ago - today that number is 46% and will continue to drop.

So no - big corporations are getting bigger and as they do they are keeping your wages stagnant while increasing their profits to their investors... who are the top 1% not you and your pension fund.

GET READY TO GET MILKED FAGGOTS.

>>56497872

>>56489867
lmao
dumbass zoomers who understand nothing about the economy aside from MS paint graphics on twitter
if the housing market goes, EVERYTHING goes. you won't have money to buy a meal, let alone a house you fucking moron.

I can tell you're hopelessly unprepared for some real shit. you'd better hope there's another bailout when it comes time, for your sake.

>>56497921
You're talking to people who listen to fucking Nick Rochefort for financial advice.

Nuggies fu

>>56489867
>P0D ID
BAHAHAHAA

>>56490134
they only went down 15%, i shit you not. look up a chart. and that was the largest housing crash of the century. housing simply never goes down

>>56497684
>>56497463
You, sir, are a sunk cost fallacy self aggrandizing dumb fuck when it comes to housing as an investment. I'll let Robert Shiller cover the highlights:
>People trap their savings in a home. They're running an opportunity cost of not having that money liquid to earn a better return in the market.
You would have gotten a better return buying and holding the S&P than your house.
>Housing traditionally is not viewed as a great investment. It takes maintenance, it depreciates, it goes out of style. All of those are problems. And there's technical progress in housing. So, new ones are better.
You don't understand the basic costs of maintenance. You don't understand WHY depreciation is tax deductible. You have to replace the shit that breaks in your house if you want to *sell it* which is the only way you get to unlock all that BIG BAAAAAD equity of yours unless you want to pay bank fees and interest on equity you've already "earned." So you replace it at *today's* inflated prices but only get to deduct the original cost. Oops! And the tax deduction is an INCOME deduction, which means the actual dollar amount is a % of your income! Oops!

You don't understand that NOT owning a home means a job seeker can *gasp* leave their job for better pay elsewhere if they don't get a raise. Can you leave your home as easily? No.
> that real U.S. home price appreciation from 1890 to 1990 was just about 0 percent. This is explained by the falling costs of construction and labor.
0 percent over 100 years. Any guess what stock market indices return over those years - without any maintenance costs?

You bought a stationary car that you lived in and paid to destroy. But ooooo goodie! The IRS gives you piece of cake to make it taste sweeter... when you could have gotten better returns in a basic ETF indexing the S&P.

YOU are the one who doesn't understand.

>>56498047
>You would have gotten a better return buying and holding the S&P than your house.

You can't get gifted 200k to invest in the stock market

>You don't understand WHY depreciation is tax deductible.

It's not unless the property is a rental, and it's capped at 30 years (homes don't need to be completely rebuilt after 30 years)

>*sell it* which is the only way you get to unlock all that BIG BAAAAAD equity of yours

You get a home equity line of credit or a cash out refinance

>You don't understand that NOT owning a home means a job seeker can *gasp* leave their job for better pay elsewhere if they don't get a raise

You can just rent your home out. No shortage of renters, and prices go up every year. Then you get the depreciation deduction and can deduct maintenance and repairs.

Only retards rent.

get a job nigga.

>>56498043
Depends on the metro area.

California, Florida, Phoenix, Vegas, PNW, Mid-Atlantic boomed way more than the rest of the country and crashed the hardest.

But places like Denver, Dallas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Cleveland didn't have the boom in the mid-2000s, and as a result barely crashed.

Same shit happened in 2022 - west coast places where prices boomed came down the most, while other metros saw little to no change in prices.

>>56489867
Did u not catch the Powell minutes? Stupid nigga. Look at the forward PEs for Tokyo next week

>>56498069
>You can't get gifted 200k to invest in the stock market
Actually you can, tax free, to the tune of $15K per year every year per gifter. In addition to that, wtf are you trying to say with this? "Housing is a great investment because my Mommy and Daddy can give me a home?" Wtf are you trying to say.
>It's not unless the property is a rental, and it's capped at 30 years (homes don't need to be completely rebuilt after 30 years)
Exactly, so you don't even get the tax benefit unless you rent some portion of your home. Every home I have ever lived in or financed has required both repairs AND improvements to be saleable or sometimes even livable. Foundations crack. Rooves wear out. Shit happens. Enjoy getting your dollar for dollar costs out of your insurance company.
>You get a home equity line of credit or a cash out refinance
Oh OK so now that you've paid bank fees to originate the loan and interest on the principal to acquire your orgasmic "equity"... you now have to pay more fees and more interest to access it! Who owns this house again - is it you or the bank because I'm pretty sure you're paying double fees and double interest to access something you already "earned" with your after tax money?

You would have earned a shit ton more investing that money into the S&P, paid taxes once upon withdrawal to the tune of 20% long-term cap gains, and never had to pay another fucking dime on it. No banks, no maintenance, no renting, no fees, no improvements... just more cash than your fabled "equity" with all the opportunity to move or get a raise somewhere else and respond to life events.

Renting is much, much better than buying a stationary car.

>>56498185
Banks won't extend you credit to invest in stocks. They will extend you credit for a house purchase. That's the whole point. Leverage is the reason why real estate has traditionally been a phenomenal investment.

>You would have earned a shit ton more investing that money into the S&P, paid taxes once upon withdrawal to the tune of 20% long-term cap gains

First house I bought in 2013 with 10k down. Sold in 2020 for a 220k profit. 22x in 7 years, tax free.

S&P went up 80% in that same time, and you pay taxes on it.

>you don't even get the tax benefit unless you rent some portion of your home

I don't get a mortgage interest deduction, or a property tax deduction, unless I rent the place out? Fuck, guess I've been cheating on my taxes all these years.

>paid bank fees to originate the loan

Nope, origination fee was waived by the bank, even waived title insurance on the purchase.

Only had to pay appraisal and inspection to refinance ($400).

>interest on the principal

No shit? Still cheaper than renting with principal, taxes, and insurance (which covers you when "shit happens" included.

You pay less interest each year. If rates fall, you refinance. If rates rise, your cash earns more from treasury bills. It only gets better as long as you buy in.

Only retards rent.

>>56498245
Now you're just being willfully ignorant and not reading. Like I originally said:
>You, sir, are a sunk cost fallacy self aggrandizing dumb fuck

>>56498185
You’re arguing with a bag holder that doesn’t factor in insane inflation and sunk cost as a reason for why he won’t concede that being versatile when you’re young makes it a far better outlook for retiring in the right spot. Bagholders do not budge and will never concede that they got conned into it at an early age.

Owning a home as a form of property without society is as simple as cutting down trees and making your own concrete. society as emasculated man to the point where stock brokerages and banks are required to facilitate just getting a house. Because they were allowed to sell MBS securities to squeeze even more money out of the market by leveraging peoples homes that they should’ve never of been able to buy without saving in the first place. Which is why, yes, they do have low impulse control via renting and while I can understand you initial reasoning for renting, none of this is natural in the sense of how it played out, I hope you both understand that you are arguing over the premise as it’s presented itself through systemic greed. In some aspects it’s not hard to agree with either of you. But both of you should be thrashing the fuck out of banks anyway.

>>56498249
>I can't argue against anything you said so I'm just going call you a name and leave

Typical.

Only retards rent.

>>56498256
>only renters have versatility

At any point, I can leave my house, put it up for rent, and have some renter make my mortgage payment for me + 1000/mo.

Renters have even LESS flexibility, they must sign a year long lease, and if they want to leave before their lease is up, they will have to get their landlord to allow them to break lease, get the landlord to allow a sublet, make double payments, or get evicted and destroy their credit.

Whenever their lease is up, I can then kick the renter out and go back to the house myself.

>>56498278
I rent in Canada and have left mid lease a few times. Doesn't matter here. If I bought a house I would be landlocked or forced to be a landlord, which is more inconvenient than you make it put to be. So unless I want to be a landlord I would have to continuously work gay jobs in the same place

>>56498262
Actually, no. Not at all. It's just obvious you're a sunk cost fallacy self-aggrandizing dumb fuck who doesn't want to understand. Example 1 (of many):
>First house I bought in 2013 with 10k down. Sold in 2020 for a 220k profit. 22x in 7 years, tax free.
So you lived in the same house from 2013 to 2020. What were the following totals for those 7 years:
>How much interest did you pay over those 7 years?
>How much did you pay in property taxes over those 7 years?
>How much did you spend on maintenance in those 7 year including everything you purchased for your home or did to your home?
>Did you have an HOA?
>What was the origination fee on the loan?
>What was the realtor's cut on the sale price of the home when you sold it?
>What were your insurance costs over the same period?
Renter's insurance is a shit-ton less than home owner's insurance.

And those are just the hard numbers. So no, you didn't make a $220K profit - you made much less than that after factoring in all of the things I listed and more that I didn't. Furthermore, the "profit" you claim to have made by ignoring the things I already wrote out for your retard ass.... where did that profit go exactly? Oh, bank into another home right? Yeah.

We're also just assuming that your personal experiences are fact... and I call bullshit because I've already established you're retarded. So let's do this instead - the S&P versus the median home price.
>S&P - $1,500 in 2013 to 3,700 in 2020
>Median Home Price - $258,000 in 2013 to $358,000 in 2020.
S&P increased by 147%. Median Home Price increased by 39%. HMMMMMMMMM. And that's without even accounting for the aforementioned fees, maintenance, and everything else.

So, like I said, you're a sunk cost fallacy self aggrandizing dumb fuck.. who is now also a fucking liar.

>>56490134
Yes many on foreclosure in Florida.

>>56498324
>How much interest did you pay over those 7 years?
It was less than rent
>How much did you pay in property taxes over those 7 years?
It was less than rent
>How much did you spend on maintenance in those 7 year including everything you purchased for your home or did to your home?
It was less than rent
>Did you have an HOA?
It was less than rent
>What was the origination fee on the loan?
It was less than rent
>What was the realtor's cut on the sale price of the home when you sold it?
It was less than rent
>What were your insurance costs over the same period?
It was less than rent

>So no, you didn't make a $220K profit

That's crazy, because I have 220k more in my bank account from selling the house, that wouldn't be there if I had I rented all those years.

> the S&P versus the median home price

Except that's not the comparison you make, because you cannot get a loan to invest in stocks, while you can get a loan to buy a house, but that point already went over your head.

>>56489867
Even if it crashed house prices are pretty much locked in. All you can do is Ave for the next decade and wait for the next cycle. It might be 20 years this time because the Fed royaly fucked the pooch.

>>56498386
Yeah that's what I thought loser. Now GTFO.

Why do you want to buy a house?

>>56498392
The only generation getting screwed here are Zoomers.

Millennials have affordable low fixed rates for decades.

Gen X is sitting on hundreds of thousands in equity.

Boomers have their homes paid off and the rising rates don't impact them because they can buy with cash

Zoomers trying to buy their first home are entering the least affordable market in 15 years.

>>56498386
>How much interest did you pay over those 7 years?
>How much did you pay in property taxes over those 7 years?
>How much did you spend on maintenance in those 7 year including everything you purchased for your home or did to your home?
>Did you have an HOA?
>What was the origination fee on the loan?
>What was the realtor's cut on the sale price of the home when you sold it?
>What were your insurance costs over the same period?
It was all more than rent

>I have 220k more in my bank account from selling the house, that wouldn't be there if I had I rented all those years.
Someone could have made more while renting and not be locked in for 7 years to enivitably attempt to justify their decisions on 4chan. Not you though.


>you cannot get a loan to invest in stocks, while you can get a loan to buy a house
Margin.