/biz/ - Business & Finance

Leveraged rotation strategy bros.. she's calling

>>56468332
Dude weed lmao

Anyone notice how euphoric mumus are over the slightest upward movement while bobos barely give a shit about dumps? Are mumus just grasping at straws while bobos are calm and calculated because they're confident about their positions?

>>56468332
Meta just reverted the entirety of losses today.

Gayed market

all posters above me are niggers

it's gotten so bad i have dreams where i look at charts with numbers that haven't happened yet, where i place orders that can't execute, and where i call up my broker and have fictitious conversations of me ranting that i didn't get a fill or something and they put in a trade dispute after promising a callback (which also doesn't happen)

Not selling my SOXL unless there's actual bad news about the companies it tracks. 200dma strategy is all fine and dandy but if I just plan to hold for 5+ years anyway what's the issue? I'll just buy more while it's down on nothingburgers

>>56468344
Shorting JPM, ARM and NVDA. Happy, in my lane

Okay cool. Nasdaq futures not particularly thrilled about meta here.
Youtube recommended me a video on how bowling balls are made. This is interesting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfKrpxBbRhU

>>56468351
he bought the top of bonds and is incredibly butthurt

LABDorks... we can afford the good ramen tonight.

>>56468372
Just explain why you would actually short something like NVDA without resorting to "it's too expensive lol!"

>>56468372
Based finance and tech shorter.

>>56468360
Burrish for RMT?

>>56468382
But it is too expensive. Plus, do you think all those semi companies are not coming for muh AI chips?

Buckle up anons, the 10 year is gonna skyrocket tomorrow when the BoJ dumps more US treasuries

>>56468367
>if I just plan to hold for 5+ years anyway what's the issue?
I'll take a stab at this. The issue is avoiding massive drawdowns that you think you can stomach but you actually can't resulting in you selling the bottom. That's what the leverage rotation strategy saves you from first. Avoiding massive catastrophic loss. Once you get past that then you consider how it helps you ride the big up trends and cut and run when things go south. It isn't perfect but then again no strategy is. However, those drawdowns take a psychological toll. For some people a big drawdown is enough for them to give up trading forever since the stock market is a "scam". It's up to you how to trade your account but whatever you do consider the psychology of what you're doing cuz it's probably more important than you think

So what's the new cope talking points for the doomers ITT?
>ad revenue up
>big tech smashing earnings
>muh debt!
>muh bonds!
>two more weeks!
market NEVER collapsing, please go touch grass

i don't need it to collapse. i just want to make a profit on the days when the market goes down.

>>5646840
Shut it bitch SPY to 350 EoY

Is AQB finished?

>>56468405
>market NEVER collapsing
based on what?

>>56468392
kek

>>56468430
Did AQB ever begin?

>>56468430
No, it along with WKHS is going to propel my portfolio to the stratosphere

>>56468348

>>56468401
Fucking Ministry of Finance...

>>56468435
No, the burden of proof is on the bears. Literally every single thing bears have said will cause the end of the world has turned out wrong.

>>56468403
I held through a 70% drawdown last year and I could definitely do it again, but I'm not fully convinced that that's about to happen again

>>56468430
It's floundering.

>>56468221
>If you're going to argue that letting winners ride, cutting losers, and following systematic rules doesn't work then you need to present that argument. You have not done so
As of yet you've thrown up no evidence that they do work..

The logical counterargument is reasonably simple though. Momentum trading relies on the greater fool theory. It depends on irrational suckers piling in behind you despite increasingly higher valuations. It's ponziesque, impossible to work at scale. Imagine someone like Buffett buying SOXL, then trying to bail overnight. It would pump like mad as the liquidity could not support him entering, and then collapse as he tried to bail.
While conceptually it's very enticing to just think: Buy low, sell higher, go all in. The reality is that there are limits to liquidity. For one to sell something, there must be a buyer on the other end. Imagine a world where everyone is riding on SOXL waiting for that 200 DMA.

The only investing strategy that actually works in aggregate is to buy value, profitability, etc. Follow basic factor investing, do analysis, use your brain. Rebalance against volatility and against the trend when the factors no longer hold. The beauty of this strategy is that it actually works at scale, because its inherently contrarian. It's self-correcting, unlike momentum chasing. If everyone value invests, then the market naturally approaches efficiency.

None of this is to say that you can't make money momentum trading. In reality it's some of the easiest trading out there for more experienced anons. There are a seemingly endless supply of fools of late.
But, again, the nature of the system is self-defeating. Pile on and the 200 SMA cross is a collapse. And then the obvious strategy is to buy the 199 day SMA instead - use a slightly quicker moving average and get in one day earlier. But then if everyone piles into that you'd need to go to 198, 197, and so on...
You think it's a coincidence SOXL lost 12% today alone?

I believed in the bear case all spring and summer. But the market didn't. So I switched. As did the market.
Remember, guys: being early is the same as being wrong.

>>56468459
Repeat after me
>HIGHER FOR LONGER

I predicted META! DID I NOT?!

The bottom was not in

>>56468401
I'm traveling to Japan and their deteriorating currency is the only thing saving my poor unprofitable ass
I fucking love BOJ let's go

Also stocks dumping and bitcoin holding on kekeke

>>56468367
>planning to hold leveraged ETF for years

Sorry, faggot, no NO NATGAS NIGGERS allowed, so just turn your faggoty ass around and head it back on over to the faggot part of town where it belongs.

So random question, why do I always see that weird gif of Paul from Tekken posted here? What's the significance?

>most profitable quarter in years

>>56468500
that was cool in zirp but at 5

any eurodollar bros here?
someone remind me why the Eurodollar system is seizing up again.
is it because there is no collateral left?
and there's no collateral left because the kikes have finally run out of goyim to dump their debt on?

>>56468514
aka, it can only get worse from here

>>56468475
Lol and what will you say when the Fed pauses again or even cuts at the next FOMC meeting?

>>56468500
Boglehead-tier investing, I know

>>56468461
Who gives a shit about the larger system? And liquidity? Give me a break. No anons here are managing nine-figure ports that are 100% physical SOXL.

>>56468539
Lmfao he doesn’t know about the humble grander tending to his SOXL farm

>>56468461
>The only investing strategy that actually works in aggregate is to buy value, profitability, etc
This hasn't been true since late 80s' anon.

>>56468500
We all know it depends which LETF. Jew out about pennies in SPXL decay and you'll Jew yourself out of dollars in gains.

why are they using 9 months instead of 1 year?

>>56468461
>Momentum trading relies on the greater fool theory. It depends on irrational suckers piling in behind you despite increasingly higher valuations
There are many theories on why momentum trading works, none of them proven but my favorite is it relies on the inefficient distribution of information. Some traders get the memo later than others that the bear market is over. Some get the rollover of a bull market later than others. And everything in between. There's a convexity to how markets operate and momentum strategies take advantage of the phenomenon. This is not controversial and even Fama the grandaddy of efficient market theory has remarked on how robust the momentum anomaly is. Can anybody say definitively how or exactly why it works? No. This is also not controversial in the least. Yet here you are making blanket statements about it beclowning yourself
>The only investing strategy that actually works in aggregate is to buy value, profitability, etc
I assume you're arguing in good faith so I suggest you check the literature. The only factor that persists in all market environments in momentum. There is recent research suggesting that value has been demoted to beta at this point and has no alpha at all. Yet momentum still does
>But, again, the nature of the system is self-defeating. Pile on and the 200 SMA cross is a collapse. And then the obvious strategy is to buy the 199 day SMA instead - use a slightly quicker moving average and get in one day earlier. But then if everyone piles into that you'd need to go to 198, 197, and so on...
Momentum has been studied with records dating back to the 1200s AD and it has persisted throughout time. You are suggesting that it just stopped working today. You need to back up that claim

>>56468556

I believe that online brokers like TD Ameritrade and Robinhood trade against their customers.

>Goog mixed bag
>IBM beats
>Meta beats
>QQQ still falling

340 tomorrow?

>>56468506
Listen, Jack, the Biden administration is in charge. And that means he'll sic the attorney general on the KOLD kall klan.

I can't believe this. It's so over, double-top, 10y going ath tomorrow, Putin conducting nuke-drills, he's gonna nuke the market even further, it's just so over

>>56468548
2023.. I am forgotten

>>56468344
>Anyone notice how euphoric mumus are over the slightest upward movement while bobos barely give a shit about dumps? Are mumus just grasping at straws while bobos are calm and calculated because they're confident about their positions?
The charts indicate a massive downward movement in tech and a massive upward movement in energy as people flee for safety, bobos do not care (I would assume) because charting is on their side (not the energy bobos but I've never seen one in the wild).

Give it to me straight. Are fractional shares really in danger of being outlawed? There’s a rumor that they are

>U.S. banks could be grappling with at least $650 billion of unrealized losses in their securities portfolios, according to an estimate from Moody's

hahahahahahahaha please let everything burn to the ground

>>56468556
They are interim financials dummy not year end

>>56468388
>>56468332
>Why are "dude weed lmao" muh pipe and weed pics always in disgusting houses?
Because weed smokers are disgusting retards
>>56468435
I memba this meme good times
>>56468557
so you are saying I should all in UPRO in november?

I wonder how this anon is doing right now

>>56468577
Bought the top tick again, eh?

what did he say?

>>56468590
Time buries everything like sand does an oasis

>>56468614
N

>>56468600
>so you are saying I should all in UPRO in november?
If you say why not all-in UPRO in November, I say why not today? If you say today at market close, I say why not at market open?

>>56468614
That he's abandoning his corporeal form to live full-time in the Metaverse.

>>56468539
> Physical SOXL
What did he mean by this anons

>>56468556
>>56468569
There are usually some CPAs on here.
They're probably driving home from the office right now though.

>>56468593
Buy the rumor
Sell the news

>>56468586
>already despairing
ngmi

>>56468461
Buffet said that trading becomes harder the more capital you have for this reason. Anyone under 10mill can swing soxl at a whim without causing your retarded scenario.

>>56468580
They will never get their baby back from the KKK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYXS5q0105Y&t=1s

This can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening this can't be happening
I'm literally having a panic attack, bobo please cover your shorts for week I beg you.

>>56468596
Damn, banks are outperforming me in losses. Out fucking skilled!

>>56468637
Not your chips, not your gains.

>>56468561
>Can anybody say definitively how or exactly why it works? No.
Because it doesn't. It does not work as a permanent, fixed strategy. And that's the point. I've provided a trivial proof via contradiction of why momentum does not work at scale. Feel free to pick apart that argument, rather than tiptoeing around with some unsourced bullshit. You could at least do me the courtesy of linking whatever self-published uncited SSRN meme paper that claims momentum is viable so I can have a good laugh like I've had picking apart any other leverage shill papers in the past.

My favorite is that one you fags always post that declares 2x leverage optimal, fails to reproduce even via LETFs during ZIRP, and makes one singular mention of the cost of leverage throughout the entire paper - assuming 1% rates.

>There is recent research suggesting that value has been demoted to beta at this point and has no alpha at all.
lmao.

META back to being red on the day even after that earnings pump, the market is healing.

>>56468679
What r ur positions?

ABRbros... it keeps dumping...

>>56468623
Because spy closed past its 200d ma a

>>56468696
I bought more REIT puts today.

>>56468557
>pennies in SPXL decay

>>56468596
They had large losses during 2008 guess what happened the fed bought the bad debt at par, after they consolidated the banking sector.

>>56468461
>scale
Do you think any one of these niggas is at buffet scale if they're looking to stack soxl?
which for their account size totally works up to probably 400k

Anons are you in any other financial communities? Besides /biz I'm only in one crypto discord and that's it.

>>56468767
No other "communities" of any kind, anywhere.

>>56468767
I have 1 friend that I talk money shit with sometimes

looks like we're tracking revisions at 8 tomorrow

>>56468586
Pump LMT

>>56468738
I kinda wonder what magnitude of profit buying .1 delta call leaps and rolling quarterly on tmv would have given

>>56468692
>Because it doesn't. It does not work as a permanent, fixed strategy. And that's the point. I've provided a trivial proof via contradiction of why momentum does not work at scale
You have proved absolutely nothing. You have made a hypothetical assertion so contrived I can smell the glue. If the momentum factor is so easily defeated then why does it persist and why has it persisted for every time frame we have records for? Why does Fama remark on it?
If momentum doesn't work then why did you yourself claim that it does in your previous post >>56468461
>None of this is to say that you can't make money momentum trading.
You posted that just a few minutes ago and now you're saying momentum doesn't work. Again, I assume you're arguing in good faith and are just flustered so I'll give you a pass on directly contradicting your fundamental premise in the span of a few minutes
>My favorite is that one you fags always post that declares 2x leverage optimal
That's not a claim for the leveraged rotation strategy. The anons talking about 2x are claiming that it is the optimal daily adjusted leverage for a long term buy and hold that because of drawdowns will actually outperform 3x. Again, I assume you just misconstrued their argument and are not trying to prop up your argument by intentionally misrepresenting what was said
All that said, I am posting in good faith and I'll unequivocally state that if you have a strategy with defined rules that can be written down on a piece of paper that if followed will outperform the benchmark and outperform the LRS and you share those rules I will immediately switch my position to yours as far as that's concerned. I'm here to make money and find the best strategy. As it stands momentum in its various guises is the best strategy available. If you can do better then spit it out. Otherwise you aren't really saying anything worthwhile because your claims cannot be verified therefore they are worthless

>>56468735
>SPY 10 yr return: 265%
>SPY 10 yr return x 3: 795%
>SPXL 10 yr return: 1052%

Even excluding most of the QE era, and concentrating on the past couple years of crashes and fuckery, SPXL's 5 year return is beating SPY.

And that's without considering the only good companies are tech companies, so everyone here ought to focus on QQQ/TQQQ or SOXX/SOXL.

>>56468779
Same. I am a half century old, and have a friend a good bit older still that I talk markets with every day on a phone call. I haven't seen him in years, he lives thousands of miles from here. I trade on his dime and we split profits, too.

>"Are you a homosexual, Peter Thiel?"
>"I am. Yes, Mr. Trump, I am."
>"Okay. So you don't find Female Broker very attractive then? You don't find the Fed girls very attractive then?"
>"They're beautiful women but they're not my thing."
>"Alright. That's why they have menus in restaurants, you know?"

>>56468696
1. Go to TradingView
2. Choose symbol ABR
3. Adjust scale to percentage
4. Add comparison symbol UBT
5. Compare since start of doomp in August

>>56468539
>>56468666
>>56468740
Missing the point, unsurprisingly.
All that excess profit you got swinging SOXL.. Every dollar made came at the expense of someone else losing a dollar on the ride back down. I'm guilty of this too, plenty of losses I've inflicted upon the bagholders in my wake.
Spend enough time mindlessly momentum trading though, and eventually you'll fall on the other side of that equation. A fixed strategy is a target for frontrunning.

This doesn't have to be the case. It's not true for PBR holders, for example, who have likely gotten paid out profits on their shares over the past 2 years in excess of cost basis. You could, however, argue that their excess profitability comes at the expense of the marginal consumer in the global economy during this period of elevated oil prices relative to the past decade. But that's another topic - then you're talking communism.

I'm thinking about buying LEAPS in a roth IRA. Any reccomendations for tickers? I want a fair amount of risk of the underlying to double over the next 2 years. I'm looking at healthcare/pharma names or chinese ADRs but can't find anything I feel good about.
Also I was looking at 13F filings and Rothschild bought 2.4 million shares of CP. Make of that what you will.

>>56468788
Christ, imagine if the Israelis actually roll into Gaza and oil spikes. The Fed is so Burns'd.

>>56468804

>>56468767
God damn "communities." The only "communities" I'm part of are my family and my church.

>>56468828
Yes, the market is in large part a mechanism to take money from idiotic Boomers and give it to PCs. It's an honor to speak with you during your first week in the stock market.

>>56468804
Has anyone here actually been holding something like SOXL for a decade? I'm definitely going to try it but it seems like something very few people actually do

>>56468828
>Spend enough time mindlessly momentum trading though, and eventually you'll fall on the other side of that equation. A fixed strategy is a target for frontrunning
Then frontrun it and show us how much money you make rekting momentum traders. You won't

>>56468828
you make a valid point. However consider that SOXL is just a leveraged ETF of the underlining semi-conductor sector. It isn't leveraged crypto / ponzi and is directly tied to consumer and business demand of semi conductors.

>>56468828
so that cost is eaten by the carrying costs and general risk rate. it feeds the banks who purportedly feed the people back their money.

>>56468831
>Rothschild bought 2.4 million shares of CP
Link?

>>56468804
anon...

>>56468852
There was an infamous guy on the Bogelheads forum years ago who was running a 60/40 TQQQ/TMF I believe.

>>56468767
I browse Stocktwits now and then for fun on really bad days to read the posts seething about the hedgies and market makers, but I'd never post there.

>>56468866
https://whalewisdom.com/filer/rothschild-amp-co-wealth-management-uk-ltd

>>56468860
>It isn't leveraged crypto / ponzi
OK, but it definitely was during the NVDA mining rig pump of 2021. And a lot of the current pump is from the AI bubble.

So do we get a technical bounce tomorrow or...

>>56468881
UPRO / TMF and he would have been blown the fuck out this year.

>>56468852
Buy and hold SOXL over the last decade would have made bank but that says nothing to how much it might make in the next 10 years. The drawdowns are brutal and if too many strike in a row you could easily end up down 99%. Think about it statistically. Look at the annualized implied volatilty of SOXL and consider there's a 50/50 chance of that volatility happening on the downside. If something has a 50% chance of happening then in a long enough string of occurrences it will eventually happen multiple times over and over. Like flipping a coin if you flip enough times eventually you get tails 5 times in a row. If you ate the IV of SOXL on the downside 5 years in a row you would be left penniless. That's the risk you take with a blind leveraged ETF buy and hold and why you should have some plan to avoid the fat tails

>anon with the Google puts from yesterday

Feels good.

>>56468804
>>SPY 10 yr return: 265%
>>SPY 10 yr return x 3: 795%
>>SPXL 10 yr return: 1052%
Now do the same backtest but 1970-1980.

>>56468877
Yeah and that includes the two most obvious "bail on the market temporarily" signals ever. Everyone had months of warning for both COVID and the rape hikes.

And yet if you did the braindead buy-and-hold thing, UPRO/SPXL still came out ahead!

>>56468913
thats it?

>>56468913
based

be safe out there oil bros
It is a dangerous world

I'm thinking of buying farmland and renting it out to flyover faggots.

>>56468916
Did you not notice the Nikkei on my original chart? >>56468557

Like I said, LETFs aren't a magic bullet. But if you're doing maybe 1 trade a year and vaguely know what's going on, they crush their unlevered equivalents over the course of years.

>>56468344
Bobo, we are 10% off the high. Unemployment is low. GDP is positive. Inflation has come down.

Every single day for the past two years you doomers have talked about the market crashing -50% or more, and shorting all the way. That has not happened.

Of course you're not euphoric, you've been consistently wrong.

>>56468798
>another reply
>more theoreticals out the ass
>still not a single source, on anything
lmao

>You posted that just a few minutes ago and now you're saying momentum doesn't work
It works for me because I use my brain. There is some inherent randomness and unpredictability in my strategies. I'm not relying on some fixed strategy that is trivially front run. You have this laughable believe that simultaneously the market is undefeatable efficient at the micro level, while being structurally inefficient at a macro level to the point that your meme trend following strategies will somehow consistently outperform over all future timeframes.

>That's not a claim for the leveraged rotation strategy.
It's not the precise meme, but it's the same clusterfuck of SOXL fags shilling both of these strategies, typically. And it's the only group that has ever put in the effort to provide me with a source on their claim, which you still have not.

>>56468856
>Then frontrun it and show us how much money you make rekting momentum traders. You won't
I literally did. I made a comfy 100% profit dumping into the top, starting a decay chain that lead to you getting a much smaller 18% return. And then you tried to use this massive gain I earned as some negative, as if it's pure luck.
But my trading isn't really the point. In theory I could get dumped on too, as momentum is not a viable strategy in aggregate.

>if you have a strategy with defined rules that can be written down on a piece of paper that if followed will outperform the benchmark and outperform the LRS and you share those rules I will immediately switch my position to yours
You're still missing the point then. I am contesting that such a thing does not exist. Not one that will work over every timeframe.

>>56468898
By that logic any stock is a ponzi because of speculation, BRZU is a leveraged etf of brazil that contains PBR is that a ponzi too?

>>56468891
What are they planning, bros?

>>56468940
Good to hear we're not going to war.

>>56468804
Nigger, SPXL is 5.6% BELOW its pre-Covid peak whereas SPY is 24% higher. You're ridiculous.

>>56468940
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

>>56468959
Sometimes stocks rise because of idiots and exuberance, sometimes because the underlying is legitimately more valuable. It's almost always a mix though.

>>56468940
don't worry, even if there's a recession, the fed is stuck. they have to cut. oil wins in the end with stagflation. not as much as gold but it still works.

>>56468966
Anyone with two brain cells was out of the market in December, January at the latest. So yeah, you got me, an LETF strategy requires you have two brain cells.

The same brain cells that'd tell you to, I dunno, not buy UVXY just because it's a LETF.

>>56468966
...and when it's 24% higher than SPY this time next year what will you say?

>>56468951
This x10

The best part of the crash is all these glownigger shill farms getting defunded lol. Speaker Mike Johnson.

>>56468970
Kek you got cramepied

i boughted SDS at the close so the market WILL be higher tomorrow

>>56468372
>Shorting NVDA
Alright.
>Shorting JPM
Beyond based.
>>56469022
>The truth is like a lion. You don't have to defend it. Let it loose. It will defend itself.

>meta losing all ah gains
yeah, bobos are so fucking back

>>56469007
If you weren't a moron you would have said 30% because that's the real difference in performance for that period between the two. By using SPXL you're giving yourself what is currently a -14%/year headwind, that means that if SPY is flat and the SPY holder gains/loses nothing you lose -14%/year. So you need SPY to gain over 7% for SPXL to be the superior choice, that's rather lopsided towards SPXL not being the best choice if you're smart enough to understand that you're not getting another post-2008 bullrun because equities are very overpriced.

>>56468951
>we are 10% off the high
So far.
>Unemployment is low.
Yes. This is due to central bank interference. Natural, maximum unemployment is 5%. 1.5% past maximum employment. That is why there is inflation. Because of this distortion, caused by bad monetary and fiscal policy.
>GDP is positive
In nominal terms.
>Inflation has come down.
and is rising again.
The entire bobo thesis is still the same - it just has taken longer to play out than originally expected

>>56468953
>There is some inherent randomness and unpredictability in my strategies. I'm not relying on some fixed strategy.
So you are a discretionary trader. Why didn't you just say that in the first place? Now since you like studies so much dig up everything on the success rate of discretionary traders versus the success rate of momentum traders. If I'm not mistaken I believe something like 99% of discretionary traders lose money. And most of the 1% that "make" money underperform minimum wage when accounting for the number of hours spent. Compare that to momentum strategies (take your pick or use some aggregate). It's honestly boring me having to type the obvious that the latter group outperforms the former. Maybe you're the exception. Maybe. But you must understand the astronomical odds against you continuing your performance in the long term. You have to depend on continuing precision in a game where anything can happen at any time. And you have to be right a large percentage of the time when discretionary trading. I'll be honest I don't have a lot of faith in your ability to do that
>>That's not a claim for the leveraged rotation strategy.
>It's not the precise meme, but it's the same clusterfuck of SOXL fags shilling both of these strategies
Broseph, I don't have a problem refuting all of your fundamental claims but I need you to be careful to post reasonably accurately when paraphrasing other anons' statements in other threads in the past. You don't have to be exact but are you now claiming that a 2x long term daily rebalanced SSO buy and hold doesn't outperform SPY? How about QQQ and QLD? Honestly I don't even care about that since I'm not arguing either way but I do have access to charts and can check pretty quickly if need be
>You have this laughable believe that simultaneously the market is undefeatable efficient at the micro level
I never said that. I asked for the rules of your strategy so I can verify it and you have not been forthcoming

>>56468951
>>56469102
Unironically, all of your reasons for being bullish are reasons for why you should be bearish. It can only get worse from here. It is inevitable that unemployment will rise. All of your arguments for being bullish are "things cannot possibly be better" - not realizing that this means
>things can only get worse
Unemployment will rise with 100% certainty, everyone, including the US govt is leveraged to the tits with debt. The crash is 100% inevitable.

I'm genuinely and irrationally angry. Like I'm unironically fucking seething right now.
How do I calm down? Please don't say drugs and masturbation, I need a clean head.

>>56469121
There is only one solution.

>>56469121
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5QfXjsoNe4

>>56468913
I was thinking about buying some a few months ago (their core product has been dogshit for a long time, their desperation is showing with youtube etc), but as usual I bitched out.

>>56469089
m-meta bros?

>>56469121
The fate of everyone who didn't go short. RIP.

>>56469089
It's joever.

>>56469121
Do what poem anon does. Break shit.

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=jd_HmLEhVqA&si=hoHD-bVH9z01z8jF

>>56469121
drugs and masturbation

Explain to me why I shouldn't buy a couple hundred 100$ strike Nvidia puts

>>56469146
They're now red in AH. Maybe the tech infinity P/E clownshow is finally ending.

>>56469092
>equities are very overpriced
Compared to what?

>>56469121
Read the Psalms and Proverbs.

>>56469121
Get drunk and jack off while drinking.

>>56469121
Exercise. Go for a run or lift some weights.

>>56469159
The market can remain irrational longer than your puts can remain solvent.

>>56469121
You'll feel better as soon as you sell your underwater position.
As soon as you get out of the loss, you will suddenly feel clarity and relief, and wonder why you couldn't have cut the loss a much longer time ago. Very similar to post nut clarity, post cutting loss clarity

>>56469137
Bretty solid.

>>56469180
Stop trading and go read Ben Graham.

>>56469089
>>56469152
>>56469146
Hey, this anon last thread nailed it: >>56467709

>>56468831
>13F filings and Rothschild bought 2.4 million shares of CP
link pls?

>>56468953
>>Then frontrun it and show us how much money you make rekting momentum traders. You won't
>I literally did. I made a comfy 100% profit dumping into the top, starting a decay chain that lead to you getting a much smaller 18% return
Is this repeatable or did you just get lucky? How well does your "front running" work in the long term? Also you didn't actually front run anybody. Your gains did not come at the expense of the people using the leverage rotation strategy. In case you've forgotten the current SOXX/SOXL trade will be closed at almost 20% gain tomorrow. The strategy worked exactly as planned. Hypothetical gains from selling any time previous to tomorrow is not part of the strategy thus is moot. LRS adherents made exactly the amount of money the strategy allowed and nothing you or anybody else did "front ran" it or compromised those gains. I would suggest you got lucky this time and next time you might not be so lucky
>You're still missing the point then. I am contesting that such a thing does not exist. Not one that will work over every timeframe.
I'm not missing the point. You are a discretionary trader claiming you made big gains selling NVDA close to the top. That may be true but I ask is it something you can outperform the market with in the long term. Your other claims are that the leverage rotation strategy and by extension mechanical momentum/trend following systems do not work. You have not proved that claim or come anywhere near proving it. However the momentum anomaly persisting for centuries in all markets and does lend a lot more credibility that momentum does work and will continue to work. Not only does it work statistically but it is logical. Markets are convex, traders overreact to bad news and underreact to good news. Traders sell winners at a much higher rate than they sell losers. People sell bottoms and buy tops. Leverage users succumb to fat tails and get margin called. These are all reasons why momentum exists in markets

>>56469203

>>56469120
>The crash is 100% inevitable.
>two more weeks!
>surely this time its going to happen!
you're unironically going to miss the bull run when it starts because you've been brainwashed by other retarded /pol/ doomers who are even dumber than you are.

>USD/JPY
Is that already the BOJ or is the market just afraid of the fact that they will intervene at some point?

>>56468695
probably long

>>56469238
>WHY IS IT SELLING ON NO NEWS?

>>56469157
I broke my mouse yesterday, actually...

>>56469214
>Hey, this anon last thread nailed it: >>56467709 yes, I saw it when he posted it and the prediction was completely accurate

>>56469121
Go yell "NIGGER" in the center of town
It usually helps

>>56469238
lol retard

>>56469157
Based.

We warned you.
You didn't listen.
It is not too late to start listening.
It will be too late to start listening if you wait for 3500 SPX

>>56469243
These yen or yield lines in the sand always make me remember this Jurassic Park scene. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwAOHVBKTwg?t=1m52s

>futures

Here's to (you) phd in bidenomics anon
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cdmhyEqCINM

FUTURES GAPPED DOWN BIGLY ON OPEN, THIS IS NOT A DRILL THIS IS NOT A DRILL. LIMIT DOWN TOMORROW.

>>56469248
Save it. I want you to mail it to me. I'll start making videos again if I get it.

>>56469238
Couldn't agree more

>The celebrity CEO doesn't have the free cash available to make his current offer viable. He wouldn't pay even if he did have the cash. Elon Musk/”Wikipedia” (Elon Musk Says He’ll Give Wikipedia $1 Billion if They Change Their Name to D*ckipedia)

>>56469276
>>56469261
>>56469246
>t. delusional muh crash faggots
you've somehow become worse than memestock baggies, at least they keep to their containment threads for the most part

>futures

>>56469291
It wasn't that interesting of a break. It just stoped working after I threw it at the wall. I destroyed some headphones a month ago though, I should have saved some pieces of that.

>>56469114
>You don't have to be exact but are you now claiming that a 2x long term daily rebalanced SSO buy and hold doesn't outperform SPY?
It hasn't been for 2 year now, and unless real rates go negative, it won't going forward. But you're right that that's an argument for another day. I only brought it up because unlike you, they at least provided a source. I had hoped you'd at least have some SSRN paper to back up these claims about "momentum" as a factor. That's perhaps the most interesting thing you claimed, but you've yet to substantiate that claim.

>I never said that. I asked for the rules of your strategy so I can verify it and you have not been forthcoming
I've been pretty explicit in stating my view that rule based strategies are generally a guarantee of mediocre returns. How are you going to expect me to give you the rules that define my strategy, when I don't follow rules?
I don't even believe in stop losses. Trailing stops are nice though.

>If I'm not mistaken I believe something like 99% of discretionary traders lose money. And most of the 1% that "make" money underperform minimum wage when accounting for the number of hours spent.
Why would I care what the other 99% are doing? I've always been of the opinion that comparing oneself against the median is kind of retarded, because in most situations the median person is typically not even trying. They're playing a different game, living their life. In the financial sphere, the median trader is just some degenerate gambler getting their casino fix.

>>56469281
How do futures work because ES00 has been pretty far off SPY for multiple days now. Do people on the short end just keep losing money?

So I sat down and did the calculations at the end of work today to figure out if I could fuck off with 40k in dividends/yr. I could do it, but 30k would be impossible...

rent/mortgage really didn't look good, the poors are in a bad way. There is no way 1.5-2k month housing costs are sustainable.

>>56469295
I love when poors imagine billionaires have billions just sitting in their checking accounts or something. It's adorable.

>>56469297
post cost basis so I can laugh at your financial devastation later lmao

my money my fucking money how could meta do this to me

>>56469321
Who the hell leaves more money in their checking account than they need for the month? That's retarded even if you only have a few thousand.

Holy shit, tech bros.

>>56469328
It's down 3% now, haha how the fuck is this even possible

>>56469328
AYYEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>56469306
I don't care. I want a piece of your autistic rage in my home.

>>56469330
Anon, well over half the country have zero financial sense because they're webm related. And everyone ITT at some point should look up just how stupid 100 IQ really is.

>>56469315
Futures work by human sacrifice to moloch

>>56469341
I hope Zuck cries again.

>>56469341
that is an impressively fun looking line there

>>56469346
Well, it's still in the trash, so I can dig it out if you want. But you'll have to pay for shipping. Remember, I'm unemployed and poor now. I'm going to be eating white rice and ketchup for the next few days until the next unemployment payment hits my account

>>56469354
Man I really didn't need that kind of blackpill this afternoon.

>>56469355
It sure does seem like that sometimes.

>>56469315
Futures move in tandem with SPY. they're not 1-1 par though for various reasons like contract roll etc.

So let me get this right so I understand it. Mets beats on top and bottom line revenue and earnings, but, their capex forward expenditures trail estimates because they plan to spend less money ... and the stock barfs up its entire earnings gains plus another 3% on top of that?

Fuck it. I'm too retarded to understand.

>>56469379
Also aren't they getting sued in a gorillion states?

>>56469371
I'll pay for everything. I'll even give you a few bucks for a decent meal. Dog it out of the trash please.

>>56469341
meta is dumping some more

>>56469373
OK, here's the whitepill version of it. Dqydj's updated their wealth calculator with the latest Fed stats; look where you place: https://dqydj.com/net-worth-by-age-calculator/

>>56469338
People born today will never know what it was like to have the disc for their favorite game they bought after saving their allowance for two months to purchase explode in the cd-rom drive because they played it too much.

>>56469346
Now that you're back, Rocker, I hope you're aware that AQB has finally completed it's reverse split. We await receipts of your side of the bet.

>>56469391
I'm not going to take liabilities into account and put myself in a higher bracket.

Do I hold my AMZN short through earnings or will they beat and pump like 15%? This seems like bear euphoria

>>56468948
>But if you're doing maybe 1 trade a year and vaguely know what's going on, they crush their unlevered equivalents over the course of years
Survivorship bias.

If it's so ez, what is your choice of leveraged ETFs for the next few years?

>>56469371
>white rice and ketchup

>>56469391
Feels average, man, which is also slightly disconcerting.

Is this it?

>>56469408
Well... it's spicy ketchup...
Don't make fun of me for throwing my life away

>>56469400
I read a rumor the new PS5 slim disc drive needs an internet connection.

>>56469379
Short interest is retardedly high. Bears desperately want a crash, which is exactly why it won't happen. Checkem, I'm right

>>56469379
All you need to do is buy NATGAS low and sell NATGAS high.
SIMPLE
AS
.

>>56469406
I'm a more active/degenerate trader, but for sure TQQQ will beat, I dunno, SPY or VT over the next 10 years.

>>56469401
Then I'll double down. They'll be delisted by May

>>56469330
I have about 4$ in my bank account. Keeping money in a bank is taking unnecessary risk

>>56469417
Dude, beans. Rice and beans is a meme, but also not a meme, because it gives you complete proteins
>inb4 this nigga eatin beans. yes.

>>56469314
>are you now claiming that a 2x long term daily rebalanced SSO buy and hold doesn't outperform SPY?
>It hasn't been for 2 year now
Yes, this is a whole 'nother argument but since you brought it up, run your test for 1 year, 3 years, 4 years, 5 years, 6 years, 7 years, etc. etc. You cherry picked 2 years but every other time frame SSO outperforms SPY
>I've been pretty explicit in stating my view that rule based strategies are generally a guarantee of mediocre returns
Your view is wrong
>I had hoped you'd at least have some SSRN paper to back up these claims about "momentum" as a factor
Here's one from AQR. Just click the download link on the right. Assuming you're posting in good faith I think you'll find it informative. Hopefully it's authoritative enough. If not google for Eugene Fama's statements in support of the persistence of the momentum anomaly. It probably doesn't get anymore authoritative than a nobel prize winner. Sorry I don't have any random SSRN papers since I rarely go there to read the dreck
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing

>>56469400
>Get red ring of death for original 360
>Send it to Microsoft and get it repaired under warranty
>Still works harder to run big games like Fable 2. Scratches the disc.
>Wipe underside of disc with Brasso.
>Game works just fine.
It was like discovering sacred alchemy.

>>56469413
well duh

>>56469413
Idk, i will be okay either way though

tech rug

>>56469379
>they plan to spend less money
It means they expect less growth.
When looking at companies with high forward P/E, any sign of slowing growth is bad.

>>56469435
I actually just don't like beans. Like... at all. I find the taste and texture intolerable. I don't even get them when I have burritos

>>56469411
>>56469404
Some good copium adjustments if you're in your 20's are to add in the money you wasted/spent on college (counting a human capital investment as part of your net worth) and subtract 4 years from your age (an 18 year old skipping college is basically the same start as a 22 year old graduating from it).

chink stocks are in accumulation range. growth forecasts are beating US/EU but for political reasons western money is hesitant to get in early

It’s over, no one will use technology ever again

>>56469435
Do not feel bad for poem anon. He has like $500k just waiting for him. I expect at least $10k of that for personal financial advice.

>>56469450
Fine. Be deficient in certain amino acids. See if I care.

>>56469417
I mean my diet consists of cereal, oatmeal, cornmeal, rice, beans, lentils, bread, pasta, eggs, dairy, I ain't doing much better.
>>56469435
Based beans and rice enjoyer.

tomorrow we pump because of the obvious beat on gdp. You should all fade that fake and gay pump.

>>56469418
you need an internet connection just to patch the crap on the disk

>>56469449
good take anon

>>56469453
50% YINN, 50% YANG

>>56469417
Tell me more about this spicy ketchup.

>>56469435
Beans and corn are a complete protein too. I eat pintos, brown rice, and whole kernel corn together every single day with hemp seed powder sprinkled on them.

>>56469482
why don't you eat meat anon? are you a homosexual?

So with AH Google now down 12% in a single day?

reminder if you wont hold a stock 50 percent down you are not a zero to one thinker but liquidity provider

>>56469471
Flch pays divvies, real men buy BABA

>>56469461
you >>56469488 same question

>>56469450
Which beans are you eating? Baked beans? Kidney beans? Goya beans? Goddamned Lima beans?
They're all very different.

>>56469488
No, I caught the inflations a while back.

>>56469418
The only viable alternative would be to have some sort of cryptographic proof of ownership that couldn't be counterfeited before the software could run and that'd still at least require an internet connection to get that proof onto the device locally before it could be disconnected. But that does make more sense than the headroom standard drm requires in terms of processing power and other than the initial "check" of getting that proof onto the console, wholly offline play for an indefinite amount of time would be possible. Especially if there's a system in place wherein that proof can be traded and verified via blockchain to only exist in one place. I wonder if there's a company poised to take advantage of this...
>>56469440
I made good money repairing rrod'd xboxes when I was younger. That and flashing bigger drives with the partition from an original one before expanding it in disk manager.

>>56469496
dumb shill

>>56469479
You can buy it in a store like KR. At mine, it's on the bottom shelf below the normal ketchups. It's pretty good and makes food more interesting. There was a restaurant I used to go to that made their own spicy ketchup, I think with Cholula hot sauce, but I guess Heinz makes it themselves now.
>>56469499
I've tried several, and they're all awful. The texture is nauseating. I'm not interested in trying any more.

>>56469488
I eat fish sometimes. Sardines, trout or salmon. I don't eat meat desu.
>>56469497
>real men buy BABA
Based.

>>56469510
this anon wouldve sold tesla in 2010 thinking EVs were impossible instead of thinking of the growth potential of an EV with internet technology

WHAT THE FUCK AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>56469438
>You cherry picked 2 years but every other time frame SSO outperforms SPY
I picked 2 years because what was when the paradigm shifted. We're no longer in the ZIRP era. It was not arbitrary, but I understand it'll take a decade for this to reflect more fully against the 2010s that proponents currently cherry pick from. Sadly due to the anonymous nature of this exchange, everyone here will be long gone by the time the data tilts further in favor of my view.

>link
>Cliff Asness
lol. It's some AQR funds bullshit? Suppose I shouldn't be surprised. I'm sure I'll enjoy it though, thanks for providing something.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
WHAT IN THE TARNATION IS THIS SHIT? I WILL BE HORNSWAGGLED

This can't be right, this is just some error, right?

>>56469531
Yeah I was wondering if you went KHZ (which I do in my house), or "house" brand. I'll have the missus pick one up. There's a few things I think I'd like it on. I've seen you mention it before and was wondering about it.

>>56469549
>>56469569
So sorry, Yen collapse and ministry need sell TLT. Please understand.

Liquidation phase commencing.
Tmrw GDP numbers make or break.
It's over (for someone(s))

>tech futures

>>56469571
Yes, there are actually different flavors too. I have the chipotle one, which is less spicy, but still pretty spicy.

>>56469556
>I picked 2 years because what was when the paradigm shifted. We're no longer in the ZIRP era. It was not arbitrary
I don't have a crystal ball into the future but I do know 2x daily rebalanced leverage has been tested going back to at least 1927 compared to SPY and it significantly outperforms. ZIRP was an anomaly and it is not required for SSO to outperform. Will SSO outperform in the future? I don't know but neither does anybody else. It has outperformed in the past though indicating ZIRP is not a necessary ingredient

>>56469531
Just buy regular ketchup and a bottle of hotsauce and mix them yourself. Gets even cheaper if you buy both in bulk. The hyperbearean crab market fears the frugal consumer saving every penny they can to invest.

>>56469583
gdp at 5% and market still red eod

I'm so fucking addicted to milk and cheese it's unreal I'll bankrupt myself at this point. Fucking addicted to Casomorphin. I legit crave cheese like an addict my mood is ruined when I do not eat cheese. I'm probably taking as much morphine as Layne Staley was in his last days. Recommend me some global cheese/dairy stocks to buy. Thank you very much!

>>56469217
>>56468891

>>56469615
>I'm so fucking addicted to milk and cheese
Basé.

the fed better talk about cutting rates or something I don't give a fuck about inflation
just save my calls

>>56469574
No, this is not acceptable. YOU BETTER FIX THIS OBVIOUSLY ERRONEOUS PRICES OF STONKS AND SHIT BY MORNING, DO YOU UNDERSTAND ME?

You better help Mr Yen, whoeva he be, up off the side walk. Give him some adrenaline if you have to, and what ministry? They are eating BLT's? For supper? Who cares what some preacher is eating for dinner, I'm talking about my portfolio AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

>>56468913
what puts did you buy? they should be up like 300% not 25

There will be no dead cat.

Haha futures

>>56467709
FEW

>>56469627
Brother I need help I'm at the point where I'm considering to eat cheese with my cereal.

>>56469615
This will go away
Agricultural goods tend to be from cooperatives.
KHC has you for processed cheeses though.

>>56469494
Yeah anon didn't you know you're actually supposed to SELL companies that do well?? Duh!

the yield curve hasn't even uninverted yet lmaaoooo

>>56469638
Only if this holds. Watch them do what they did with NVOODIA calls on earnings, but in reverse. It will poomp in the morning right when options open and they won't be worth shit factoring in the high IV. You can rarely put Jew the jew

>>56469590
>but I do know 2x daily rebalanced leverage has been tested going back to at least 1927 compared to SPY and it significantly outperforms.
Yes, that's the meme paper. I see you've read it too. The one that assumes a cost of leverage of 1% in it's calculations. The one that finds huge unexplained tracking error amongst 2x ETFs over the period since their introduction, which while they've outperformed in the 2010s, gained significantly less than would've been expected.

No one was borrowing money at 1% to buy stocks in 1927. There was no commission free trading possible in 1927. I'm sorry.
S&P 500 did not even exist until the 1950s, for that matter.

I actually did make a little bit of money today, all things considered

>>56469427
If it is true why aren't you 100% in TQQQ right now?

>>56469654
Didn't know KHC was into cheese.

>they didn't listen
>they never listen

>>56469653
Might as well just move to grits instead of cereal and cheese that shit up.

>>56469665
yes

>>56469685
That's a nice graph and all, but what does this mean exactly?

>>56469653
Hell, just quit the cereal, have your breakfast cheese with some nice bread, a glass of milk, maybe some olives and cured meats. Fat is flavor and dairy has the best fat around. Just be sure to moderate your cheese intake.

>>56469698
More money is betting line gongo down than up but paradoxically that means line is more likely to go up than down.

>>56469684
my dude, you never saw those ads for Kraft American Singles™ when you were a kid? I think they own velveeta too.

>>56468596
this is a non issue.
the FED can afford to erect another $650 billion strong safety net.

>>56469688
Umm I'm already doing that.
>>56469701
I have egg and cheese sandwiches like every other day. I just love cheese in my mouth I crave it.

>>56469102
Two more weeks?
>>56469120
More like the stock market has priced in so many negative things, taken a huge amount of punches, and is expectedly down...but What happens when things actually are undeniably positive and not mixed to bearish? Earnings have troughed. The economy is more resilient and less rate sensitive. Companies and households gorged on cheap debt. The Bobo thesis is poor and relies on weak data like student loan repayments, meanwhile bears ignore productivity gains and corporations being significantly more prepared for recession than they've ever been.

>>56469698
short gamma is when market makers buy pumps and sell dumps, the more negative the harder the market swings one way or another

>>56469708
I don't eat processed cheese.

Things just keep getting worse and worse, it’s incredible.

>>56469706
So we gonna have a Vanna white gamma ray burst gun reverse charm dance tomorrow, or something like that?

>>56469673
>Yes, that's the meme paper. I see you've read it too. The one that assumes a cost of leverage of 1% in it's calculations. The one that finds huge unexplained tracking error amongst 2x ETFs over the period since their introduction, which while they've outperformed in the 2010s, gained significantly less than would've been expected
If the paper is wrong then it should be easy for you to produce the study refuting it or for you to produce evidence of the paper's retraction. If such exists I would be very interested in seeing it
Also, let me circle back to this claim here: >>56469556
>I picked 2 years because what was when the paradigm shifted
The current paradigm existed 1 year ago which is within your 2 year time frame yet SSO still outperformed SPY. The premise with which your claim that ZIRP is necessary for SSO to outperform SPY contains its own flaw

>>56469746
vanna and charm are strongest in opex and pre-opex week, so they're very weak right now

>>56469638
ATM puts last thur. That is my port %

...steiner

>>56469731
nor apparently watched Saturday morning cartoons in the 90's early 2000's

>>56469752
Yes but everyday is a mini open now with the extra degenerate 0DTEs, kind of, right?

Strong GDP numbers will save us

>>56469684
>>56469708

>>56468430
seems to be going swimmingly

>>56469768
*Mini opex

>>56469722
-80% market crash ushering in a new great depression

>>56469773
Fuck, with image this time.

>>56469767
I was gayming most likely.

>>56469767
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QugmCbdvKm0

>>56469782
>Cheese analogue.
What did KHC mean by this?

>>56469784
Fuck that cheese toast at the end.

>>56469768
0dtes have no exposure to futures for dealers. i might be out of my league explaining this but dealers hedge contracts with futures, meaning their delta has more exposure to volatility since they often buy that as well.

>>56469673
>The one that assumes a cost of leverage of 1% in it's calculations
To address this, SSO and other leveraged ETFs use futures and swaps. The manager doesn't just go borrow a whole bunch of money. They put up margin and only have to pay interest on the amount of margin which is miniscule. Quite a bit less than 1% on the notional value even now
>S&P 500 did not even exist until the 1950s
The performance is between 1950 and now than the hypothetical version between 1927 and 1950

the heem to end all heems is upon us

>>56469698
>That's a nice graph and all, but what does this mean exactly?
ask me in the next thread. i dont want to type out a long response this late in the thread and have no one even read it cuz a new thread has started

>>56469793
It means they can't legally call it cheese. The labels also contain such descriptors as 'processed cheese food'. Cheese adjacent inspired product.

>>56469824
Kinda like "orange juice drink" I've seen on some labels. I mean wtf man

>>56469748
>If the paper is wrong then it should be easy for you to produce the study refuting it or for you to produce evidence of the paper's retraction. If such exists I would be very interested in seeing it
I don't need to produce my own study to notice that 1% cost of leverage is mazy and wrong. It's a line in the paper. That said, it would be interesting to construct a better model using more accurate modeling of the cost of leverage, and incorporating typical fund management expense ratios. Perhaps I'll consider this in the future. The difficulty is sourcing that old data. The most accessible data happens to be during the most recent decade, where we can already agree that leverage in any form was a winning play.
And it's a self-published paper if I recall, so there's no reason the author would ever retract it either. I'm not going to waste time trying to message them.

>The current paradigm existed 1 year ago which is within your 2 year time frame yet SSO still outperformed SPY. The premise with which your claim that ZIRP is necessary for SSO to outperform SPY contains its own flaw
SSO underperformed over the past 6 months. I fail to see your point. There will always be periods where leverage outperforms in an temporary uptrend, but the longer term trend is what matters for long term investing. Neither of us can say conclusively how the future will be, but as it stands SSO has underperformed since ZIRP ended.

>>56469843
>>56469843

>>56469613
gdp -5% and we hit circuit breakers
checkem faggots

>>56469823
Ok, I'll ask again, but what if this time it really is the very very last /smg ever?

>>56469839
>1% cost of leverage is mazy and wrong
Sorry I addressed this point here: >>56469816
You won't be borrowing the notional value, only the on the margin amount. It will be less than 1%
>SSO underperformed over the past 6 months. I fail to see your point. There will always be periods where leverage outperforms in an temporary uptrend, but the longer term trend is what matters for long term investing. Neither of us can say conclusively how the future will be, but as it stands SSO has underperformed since ZIRP ended.
The point is markets trend upward in a positive interest rate environment so cherry picking the exact time frame when rates were hiked the fastest they've been in 40 years coming off of inflation at a 40 year high and pointing at it as if to say "SEE SEE SSO UNDERPERFORMED" is specious when there is a year long time frame within your 2 year window where SSO outperformed. You need something better than that. We'll see how things go. It's academic anyway since hopefully nobody is saying buy and hold leveraged ETFs of any multiple long term. At least I haven't seen that around here lately

>>56469816
>SSO and other leveraged ETFs use futures and swaps. The manager doesn't just go borrow a whole bunch of money.
Ok, now you're just being embarrassing. Do you really not understand that risk-free rate is priced in to futures contracts?
Swaps are also not free. While most leveraged ETFs won't publish this information, a total return swap will typically be SOFR + 1%.

When you look at SOXL, there's a reason nearly 100% exposure is in stocks themselves. This is the lowest cost hold for the ETF. The swaps cost more.

>>56469746
Something like that

>>56469874
>You won't be borrowing the notional value, only the on the margin amount. It will be less than 1%
What you're thinking of here is the margin requirement, I assume. Not the same thing.

I was wrong to not sell.

>>56469909
that's not burry

>>56469875
>Ok, now you're just being embarrassing
That's funny because have been embarassing yourself this entire thread making claims then making the opposite claim a few minutes later as you move the goalposts. If you're so sure that the risk free rate will turn SSO into a loser as a long term hold then produce the research testing your hypothesis. You won't because you can't because you are wrong.
And, again, the point is moot because nobody is saying to do that. I like how you have now pivoted completely from your "momentum doesn't work" to this SSO tangent that has nothing to do with any of the things you were wrong about in the last thread that started the whole thing
>>56469903
Research has been done claiming that 2x leveraged daily rebalanced SPY outperforms the non-leveraged version going back decades in all different market regimes and interest rate environments. Produce your research refuting that. You won't because you can't because it doesn't exist because SSO outperforms and has outperformed for decades

>>56469903
>What you're thinking of here is the margin requirement, I assume. Not the same thing.
Yes it's not the same thing. That's what you're confused about. You pay interest on the margin you put up, not on the notional value of the contract. Remember this is a derivative, not the underlying

my portfolio is still up 16%, but i am in pain.

>>56469926
Sorry, I suppose that was a bit rude. Be glad you learned something today. When you buy something like SOXL and it says 1% expense ratio, that's not the only expense.

>>56469947
Ok nevermind I guess you're still confused. I'll try and explain better. When a market maker sells a contract, often they are hedging their side of the trade. Hedging a contract for the S&P requires capital invested in the 500+ tickers that make up the index. Investing that capital means loss of interest that would otherwise be gained on dollars. So, naturally, they price the futures to account for the duration of holding required and the interest that would be lost. I've attached a formula for futures pricing, and risk free rate is the R value.
Technically, it hedging may be done as options pairs forming synthetic shares. Black scholes also prices in the risk free rate, as evidenced by put values today being cheaper than calls.
Total return swaps operate essentially identically, although they don't go through an exchange. The counterparty is a bank.

>>56470004
So your argument regarding SSO is that it will underperform due to the drag from financing. I am willing to concede that SSO in a high interest rate environment will underperform SSO in a low interest rate environment all else being equal. It's been a while since I dug into this stuff. However it does not follow that SSO in a non-ZIRP environment will underperform SPY in the long term. You need to support that claim with a proper backtest. But, again, it's academic because no one is suggesting you hold SSO long term. Absolutely nothing in any of the posts after your pivot suggests a momentum strategy applied to leveraged ETFs would have "mediocre" returns to use your word. Nothing. That was your initial claim and I have produced a paper that supports momentum that you have not refuted. Momentum works in low and high interest rate environments so it stands to reason that the abandonment of ZIRP going forward will not change this.
If you have rigorous arguments to back up your claims regarding momentum in the form of a study then I would like to see it

>>56470105
>Momentum works in low and high interest rate environments so it stands to reason that the abandonment of ZIRP going forward will not change this
Actually now that I'm thinking about it I've seen research suggesting momentum actually works better in a high interest rate environment due to the interest the investor collects when the strategy is in cash. Part of the reason some trend following strategies have underperformed since 2009 is due to the low interest rates on unused cash. Also, when you buy a futures contract your collateral collects interest slightly above the risk free rate and only the margin you put up doesn't which makes the effect of the risk free rate on a leveraged strategy a wash.

>>56469678
Because I'm doing better than it since bailing in July when every redditor and his polycule wouldn't shut up about AI and NVDA.

HAHAHA.
what happened during the earnings call what were they hiding?

are there already calls for
>emergency rate cuts to zero,
>activation of printers to warp speed level?