/biz/ - Business & Finance

it's over

>>56311426
This is the real thread. It was made first. Beware of the thread-splitter fag shilling his thread. .

This is going to be the greatest financial crisis since the South Sea bubble.

>>56311473
With such flat unemployment numbers. No. Just a weeding out of the QE era zombie corps, mainly in "tech". Nothing of value is going to be lost

>>56311473
lol

>>56311486
what's going to happen to all of those employees? Their savings? Their consumption? What's that going to do to the economy as a whole?

>>56311506
This. We shut everything down and the market went *up.* Either in nominal or real terms, everything is fake and the correction will be incredible.

The crab looks forward to eating all of you

Greetings /smg/, it is me, class taking anon again. Does anyone know why cereal companies like Kellogg's and General Mill's have consistently very negative working capital? Some videos I've been watching say it's actually a good thing, that high working capital is something only bankers give a shit about but that businesses themselves like it to be negative or low. The Walmart guy did that, but both don't have stellar turnover ratios like Walmart did, so I'm not sure what's going on.

>>56311554
I think the argument is that a net cash position is "bad" because cash itself doesn't produce anything and is affected by inflation. Banks need a capital buffer for deposits. But personally I always like seeing a strong net cash position in the companies I invest in, granted I invest primarily in capital intensive extractive industries though

I wasn't here on Friday.
Why did we pump so fucking hard yesterday if the jobs data means interests rates are 100% going to be raised?

>>56311486
>flat unemployment
all the jobs are part-time. most of them are government.
they will vanish.

>>56311566
Their reports say they do it as a result of keeping low inventory and receivables while delaying payments to suppliers.
I just don't get how they are able to do this, when it's not possible for almost any other firm to run themselves this idealy. Is it because of the nature of cereals being sold a the speed of other foods but that grains have inherently long shelf lives, or is it because these are grandaddy companies that no one is concerned about and gives favorable terms to, or something else?

>>56311554
>companies like Kellogg's and General Mill's have consistently very negative working capital
well do you know what it is? and do you know what they have and what they do with it?

>>56311554
I can't speak for General Mills, but K is running a shit business going by its payout ratio.

>>56311506
Who cares. "Tech" workers can apply for burger flipping and the financiers and scammers in the background can jump off high buildings

>>56311582
eh, i think you understand it just fine. farming is cyclical. they can push their suppliers around.
whether you should have a lot of liquid assets sitting around or not is context-dependent. it makes a lot of sense for insurers to have a big pile of float, for example.

After wiping out my gains for the year last week gambling on volatile assets, I'm getting ready to boglehead into stable dividend stocks for the next month or so until I get overconfident and try swing trading again.

>>56311606
I care about what's going to happen to the economy.

>>56311577
>the jobs data means interests rates are 100% going to be raised
who told you that?

>>56311612
Avocado toast sellers, condo land lords and tesla sellers are going to go bankrupt as well, for the rest, not much is going to happen. "Tech" workers were wfh hipsters - nothing they consume is going to be missed when the respective businesses go under

>>56311527
Except us dividend kings.

>>56311610
Good news VZ is almost getting to 9%.

>>56311607
Alright thanks sensei.

>Qt moldovian girl stopped answering me

I'm filled with hatred now. How do I short moldovia or moldova what ever its called? Do they even have an economy thats worth something?

>>56311621
all of that demand falling off the cliff at once... the economy is going to be fucked.

what should i look into shorting

>>56311634
no. "Tech" worker consume doesn't matter. Oh wow, a few online retro game sellers are going bankrupt, twitch streamers having to get a real job - so fucking what

>>56311629
It's Moldova
They had the epic sax guy in their Eurovision entry like 13 years ago
https://youtu.be/pHXDMe6QV-U
Very talented country, I would not short, go long instead buy calls

>>56311652
they too have houses
they too drive cars
they too eat and drink

you're underestimating the weight of the consequences. The consequences will be severe and the effects will be felt throughout the economy, globally.

>>56311657
>houses
a few commiefornian condo land lords going bankrupt - so fucking what
>drive cars
Tesla goes under - so fucking what
>eat and drink
Whole foods respective papa joes loses a few customers - so fucking what

"tech" workers don't matter and never mattered, they were a forefront for money laundering operations due to QE

>>56311657
>they too drive cars
I only drive mine to church. It's a 23 year old Corolla that's falling apart.
t. tech worker

>>56311671
>so what
all of that demand falling off a cliff will bring down asset prices throughout the global markets. It's the logical conclusion to make. Best be prepared for that and take advantage. Cash is king.

>>56311671
Tesla's valuation isn't based on sales anyway so who cares

>>56311616
The tulpa in my mind.

>>56311681
Nothing is going to happen
>>56311683
Yes, it depends on public subsidies flowing, which is not going to continue as it did during QE faggotery. That is something that is going to influence the economy - no business getting saved. Those that failed to get their things in order with the 20/21 bail out scam are going to go belly up, which is most

>>56311577
Technical bounce from falling wedge. Yields are higher due to job report so crash resumes after bull trap

>>56311698
Everything will happen.

>>56311700
>we're going right back down
I was right to assume so, I can't wait to play with the bears next week.

>>56311702
No. Nobody believes, and without belief, no shared reality. I cracked the existentialist code - NOTHING ever happens, with nothing being a noun

>>56311716
It's exactly because nobody believes it will happen, that it will. You still don't understand how markets work. They always work to inflict the maximum pain to as many people as possible. You're about to find out.

my oil bags are gon go back up right bros?

>FED starts QT and signals higher interest rates for longer.
>Interest rates go back to 2008 levels when they started doing QE in a years time.
Pottery.

>>56311426
>>56311426
>(((adjusted by inflation)))
more like don't believe your lying eyes goy it's perfectly natural to be paying $100+ every time you fill up your tank

>>56311577
>Sell Rosh Hashanah; buy end of Sukkot
do you guys just follow the market without consulting the Talmud?

>>56311655
https://youtu.be/REkYzvW85a8?feature=shared
Damn, just had a flashback to my battlefield days with that music. I'm old nigga, I'm a boomer now.
They speak romanian, they must be talented stealing because she stole my heart....

>>56311765
I much prefer the I Ching

>>56311724
you don't get it. nobody cares, and if nobody cares, NOTHING ever happens

>>56311843
EVERYTHING happens, even though nobody cares. Everything dies, nothing is forever. And nobody cares.

>>56311830
>I Ching
maybe I'll go consult some sticks and coins if I ever play chinese equities

For the US markets you know where to look for guidance.

>>56311492
Newtie didn't need the cash, he mastered alchemy and disappeared forever after having achieved the Opus Magnum.

>>56311850
No. Cogito ergo sum is bullshit
Its Credo ergo sum
and nobody believes

>>56311877
Belief matters not. Everything is.

>>56311881
Proof reality, you can't
Think about reality, you will end in a vortex
Believe in reality and you will be

>>56311893
You can believe that, if that makes you feel better. You can believe in anything for all I care.

>>56311426
The head line in the pict is wrong it been almost 160 years of a Oil crisis. The US government first said Oil would run out in 10 years back in 1866!

holy shit how can two people talk so fucking much shut the fuck up

>>56311897
you don't get it, your mind is your illusion and you are caught in your own prison
One can make jokes about the Christ cucks and other freaks as much as one want, it doesn't change that on the bell curve of existence, they are the left side

Short KO, short boomers.

>>56311912
You can believe in your version of reality but reality doesn't really care.

>>56311918
proof reality scientologist, you cant
you can only believe in it, everything else is foolish and midwittery

>>56311920
Reality simply is. My proof has no bearing on it. Neither does yours. Reality doesn't care about proof or belief.

Real quick I want to remind everyone to please cool it with the antisemitism.

>>56311915
Why specifically KO?

>>56311922
That is a belief, you believe that reality just is
But nobody shares believes these days due to a fracturization of the perceived reality, therefore nothing ever happens

>>56311929
No don't think I will
ADL too is buzy right now to do anything

>>56311930
Look at the interest rate computer, and then proceed to look at the KO dividend yield computer.

>>56311934
I don't believe it. What I believe doesn't matter. And nothing you or anybody else believes matters either. That's why everything happens.

>>56311934
>>56311945
> /smg/ Stock Market General

>>56311945
If you don't believe that reality just is than there is no reality from your perspective and therefore nothing ever happens for you

>>56311954
Everything happens, I just don't care. Reality just is, but I don't care about or believe in any particular form of reality, it simply is what it is. Your solipsism is only a desperate attempt to feel like you're in control of the chaos.

>>56311606
>>56311621

i feel like even if tech goes down big, the h1b jeets will still find some way to scam the system and stay in the us.

>>56311942
Good point
Also pic related

You either die a bull, or trade long enough to see yourself become the bear

>>56311961
that's no solipsism you idiot, its fundamental ontology. Its as true for the I as it is for the interactions of Is as it is true for the interactions of Is and objects. At the bottom is belief, if you don't belief or share beliefs there is nothing, not even chaos

>>56311981
>reality is what I believe it is
therefore
>my belief presides over reality
therefore
>only my subjective perception of reality exists
therefore
>only I exist

it's only the logical conclusion to make. Surely I'm also just part of your belief of reality?

>>56311486
>tech
Dream on wagie. Tech workers still have massive leverage. Companies are actually making cmbs banks go file bankruptcy instead of actually asking their skilled workforce to come back from wfh.

>>56311995
That's the reality destroying part of modern instant communication. I can believe you are real, I can never proof it. And I can also not proof that I exist, I can only believe it

I believe the reality is you're both pseuds

>>56312011
But in your mind, proof doesn't matter when belief is above objective reality. That's why it's a solipsistic mindset.

>>56312012
Weekend /smg/ is the worst /smg/ ever

>>56311433
/thread

>>56311492
Reminder that emotional control is separate from intelligence. And the former is very, very important.

TLT baggies our time is now!

>>56312018
take a simple example, you tell your wife something about the cat that pissed on your carpet, she can just believe that what you tell her is true. Sure she could go look for herself, sniff on it, she could even run a chemical analysis, but in all those cases, she has to believe in the methods. At the bottom of everything is belief, and without shared belief, nothing ever happens

>>56312025

I have to go to get groceries this afternoon. Maybe I will play some chess puzzles. I'm supposed to start playing bass guitar again. It's been on hiatus for four months because I was busy.
>>56311929
The antisemitism is more important now than ever in these troubled times.

>>56312039
fuck outta here with this schrödinger's carpet-pissing cat bullshit.

>>56311554
>Kellogg's
Don't deadname them, bigot.

>Interest rates keep going hire because the US can't stop giving all its money to JeKraine and Israel.
Ahaha
AHAHAHA
Can't make this shit up

>>56312041
>>56312024
What do I google for these.

>>56312071
Mine are mostly pulled from sadpanda/boorus

>>56312060
I don't like the split because of what i originally mentioned. I think they were already running a pretty complex operation to be running WC that negative, and that it will be hard to disentangle. Also, boring boomer company, and spinning off is tough to accomplish for annyone.

But then again, that's thinking rationally, so it'll probably actually moon.

>>56312060
Look at that soulless logo. Travesty.

What are yields going to do in response to the Israel situation?

Is there going to be a "flight to safety" and treasuries catch a bid? Or do people think "US gets more foreign entanglements, therefore more deficit spending and the debt death spiral accelerates" and yields blow out?

>>56312107
The US will do whatever it needs to do for more upvotes while they continue to lose power on the global stage.
They're falling for their own propaganda.

>>56312107
I think treasury bonds are still more valuable than oil because of yields and only get sold off if/when oil goes higher. Unless that balance gets fucked up then things will continue as they have been into the eternal crab.

>>56311649
APP. Check back in 2 months.

Two outcomes:
>The Market tanks in from Jewish rage at being attacked, holding the economy and market hostage until the US sends everything they have to support them
>The Market pumps because of the extreme money printing already starting to support Israel and the fact that the US is getting into another proxy war

Israel is under attack, someone stop iran!

>>56312158
Sorry, /smg/ is Qadaffipilled.

>>56312193
He was a shitter in a lot of ways but damn if that statement isn't Based.

>>56312193
based retard

He's meming, right?

>>56312225
No.

>>56312225
US stocks are massively overvalued, yes. The market cap of Tesla alone is a fucking joke
Land is and will remain a valuable asset though

>>56312071
safebooru.org is good if you would rather not have to exclude porn from all your searches
>>56312225
No he's right. It's just a matter of timing.

>>56312204
>>56312203
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazonian_Guard

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inside-todays-jobs-report-885000-full-time-jobs-lost-offset-1127-million-part-time-jobs
>Inside Today's Jobs Report: 885,000 Full-Time Jobs Lost, 1.127 Million Part-Time Jobs Added, Record Multiple Jobholders
>a year full of monthly downward data revisions, but also collapse in tull-time jobs and surge in part-time jobs, as well asalso the worst unadjusted August payrolls since the great recession
>6-sigma beat to expectations.
>the number of newly employed workers was just 86K, the lowest since May, and the second lowest of 2023
>the official adjusted data showed this Leisure and Hospitality added a whopping +96k jobs. But unadjusted data showed that the sector lost 466k jobs in Sep. This means that the unadjusted private sector payrolls was -399
>Wait, if unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K, that means that... you got it: in September, all of the unadjusted jobs came from - drumroll - the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers).
>a seasonally adjusted breakdown of jobs shows that part-time workers accounted for the entire increase, rising by 151K; as for full-time workers? Well, for yet another month, this number dropped, sliding by 22K in September.
>part-time workers rose for the third consecutive month to 27.336 million,and the highest since January, full-time workers have decline for three straight months, and at 134.167 million, this was the lowest number going back to February
>let's use unadjusted numbers instead. What do we get? Well, we get the following whopper: in September, the number of unadjusted full-time workers collapsed by 885K. This was the biggest monthly drop since - drumroll- April 2020 when the economy was shut down
>And if full-time workers plunged, that must mean that part-timers exploded, right? Why yes, they did: by 1.127 million in one month to be precise, and at 27.109 million the number of part-time workers was the highest since April

>>56312267
I watched George Gammon's thing on this... he didn't know what Sigma meant... I guess he's right about barely graduating highschool.

>>56312267
https://youtu.be/19hJCsc-F8Y
I currently have reason to believe that the bond market is fraudulent.

>>56312295
What's your reason?

>>56312225
He's not memeing but he is a bear and is biased. The reality is so long as oil doesn't rip nothing is crashing and it would have to rip extremely hard to get it to start.

>>56312341
As long as the yield curve remains inverted and mortgages stay more expensive than renting them out, a crash will be on the menu

>>56312295
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W5zF8Xqro0
here have the hollyjew edited version

>>56312357
Yeah when I say crab I mean the entire market, there will be stuff that goes down while other stuff goes up. Degenerate real-estate speculators that levered up on as much credit as they could get that are now getting fucked because rates are high will absolutely eat shit, the broader market won't for the most part. We're just going to crab for another two years pinging between the 3700-4700 range and probably more like 36-42 and 60% of all mortgages in the US being on a fixed rate of 4% or less backs that up. Degens get heemed, sensible people do fine, that's just an economic cycle.

>>56312225
*You're* memeing that it's somehow *not* going to happen, right? Surely you didn't think that the markets could crash to fuck in 2020 and then just suddenly start going up and up and up far higher and at a much faster rate than it had been *before* 2020 and that be the sudden out of nowhere, unstoppable "new paradigm" henceforth, including P/E now totally meaningless right? Sure, that's what reddit has convinced an army of retards, but you don't listen to retards no matter how numerous they are, right Anon?

>>56312377
So you say, nothing ever happens
Sounds about right

>>56312377
Problem is the entire financial sector depends on real estate. Real estate will take banks down with it

>>56312377
>tech is blowing up
>real estate is blowing up
>cities are blowing up
>bonds are blowing up
>IT'S JUST NOT GOING TO EFFECT ANYTHING
In all seriousness though you're probably right. They'll drop rates and things will crab or probably even go up in nominal terms.

>>56312441
While my loan on my apartment building is callable, my LTV is under 10% (on the callable loan). And it's rate will adjust in about a year. The other loans are fixed rate, and not callable. I have no fear.

WTF is wrong with the captcha

>>56312467
The debt is unsustainable with high rates.
They can shill nomralcy all they want, but the math is simple

is the fed trapped?

>>56312480
Math doesn't matter when you have infinite numbers, retard.

>>56312441
I'd believe that if WFH weren't dead and businesses around the country hadn't quietly told policymakers that another round of lockdowns would result in a lot of people getting voted out in the very next round of elections. There will be degens that get over-leveraged and eat shit and die, it won't be everyone, and the gains made by those that weren't being fucking stupid will pick up the loss that the retards ate.
>>56312438
Carcinization is a bitch. Crab markets forever.

>>56311527

>>56312480
>>56312491
Like I've already said previously, it's oil versus treasury bonds. If oil rips the machine breaks because treasuries will be dumped to buy oil, if oil doesn't seriously rip to 120 or past it for an extended period of time then the machine will continue to operate unabated. Which is why I'm saying this is going to be a crab market.

>>56312485

>>56312485
>>56312491
I think one way to look at the situation is that the dollar is backed by labor of US persons paying taxes.
The issue they're running into is that they've made using the dollar expensive enough (between inflation and taxes) that people are hoarding assets and labor (and the labor hording thing is the really unintuitive new part which is partly only possible now because of how cheap industrial fertilizer has gotten. Buying stuff (anything that involves really any labor in the US) is getting so expensive it's getting significantly cheaper for you to just check out and do things yourself.)
We're looking at an inflationary spiral on one side and a wage price spiral on the other with very little room to maneuver. The real question is what they'll do in the spring when the jam comes.

>>56312491
>math doesnt matter
>>56312510
No, high yields alone will break everything. The government debt is unsutainable.

can we just shitpost this one to death so someone can roll the WW3 Edition

>>56312520
You let the inflation run hard enough while keeping wages stagnant that people have no choice but to work or die. That's how you solve the labor issue, and it's how it's being solved now and unemployment dropping like a stone is indicative of that.

>>56312525
The yields are doable so long as oil doesn't take off and other countries start dumping bonds, which would then exacerbate yields and fuck everything up. But absent oil doing something serious and soon, it's going to be a crab market. I'll quit saying it if hearing it upsets you but I said it last year at the same time and it was true, and it will be true for the next two years to anyone brave enough to think for themselves.
>>56312526
No fun allowed I suppose.

>>56312550
Are you a bot or somehting. Why are you cosntantly shoehorning oil into the debt problem, you retard?

>>56312535
Sure that used to be true but they're running up against a bunch of issues this time around.
As I said, industrial fertilizer makes food *really* cheap, low quality food (HFCS soda) is practically free. On top of that the political game their playing that's driving a lot of the inflation depends on a large welfare state, so you're always going to have access to some amount of resources from the state, usually enough to live (though certainly not comfortably.)
Because of this, the choice isn't "work or you die" the choice is "work or you're uncomfortable" and inflation eating a way at wages only changes that to "you're uncomfortable weather you work or not" which encourages the "hoarding of labor." This will continue into there's an extreme change in the social regime.

>>56312525
>>56312550
bond yield is completely fucking irrelevant to the government budget. it's a function of the current market price of all existing issues. they don't care that sucker A is selling to sucker B at a discount to par.

>>56312535
>unemployment dropping like a stone is indicative of that.
Anon, it, uh, it just ticked up. Again.

>>56312555
Because everything everyone has bitched about in here for the last year and particularly the last month has boiled down to oil vs paper if you dig deep enough.

>>56312550
The yields aren't doable and they will most likely top soon if they haven't yet this decline in rates might give the markets the final oomph before the economy shits the bed.

>>56312569
Anon, next week Janet Yellen is auctioning a half trillion in debt over 3 days.

True that it's not all new debt, but the average maturity of our loans isn't 10 or 30 years. It's closer to 3 or 5.

>>56312569
>bond yield is completely fucking irrelevant to the government budget
Holy shit, you guys are delusional
Now I understand why the market is so calm
Bunch of retards

>>56312579
the current fed funds rate, and the state of the various economies of the world, is what affects whether those issues get successful uptake or not.
yield is just an outcome. they don't look back.

>>56312579
they did that a couple weeks ago.
only 60mill got bought on 100 mill auction.

>>56312588
>fed lowers interest rate
>government borrows cheaper debt to pay off more expensive debt

>>56312592
I think we would've heard more about that. Both an auction as small as 100 million and it failing outright.

>>56312598
>Dollar crashes.
>Inflation picks up.
>BLM peacefully protests.
>Republicans start rioting.

>>56312589
Anon, the newly auctioned bills, notes, and bonds are locked in. They are old 1% or 2% or 3% debt getting bumped up to 5% for their entire duration.

The question isn't whether the dollars are there (these auctions do not fail), it's how much their higher yield crushes our budget in 2024, 2025, 2026...

>>56312565
I could see a future where austerity measures are implemented to keep the machine running, and the loss of gibs would just make a bunch of people go get a job and make the labor market even more competitive.
>but the people will chimp out!
Yeah, so long GEO
>>56312578
It's been about 10% of GDP at worst and looks like it'll peak around 11-12% before heading back down to the 7-8% range.
>>56312573
Yeah, because people are getting comfortable again right before the next round of societal shake-outs.

>>56312598
>fed lowers interest rate
They are talking about another rate hike

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-06/surge-in-us-hiring-tilts-fed-toward-one-more-rate-hike-this-year

>>56312607
this doesn't happen when foreigners are even worse off, same as 2008, same as now.
also, refinancing at lower rates is not inflationary, it's deflationary.

>>56312607
This cycle repeats every 10-20 years regardless. It takes a long time for even crumbling empires to fall

>>56312032
Fellow based leon listener

>>56312609
did you mean coupon?

>>56312611
>>but the people will chimp out!
They don't care about the chimp out. They care about a passive easily manipulated population and an environment like that drives the passive and easily manipulated constituents out.

>>56312579
Actually, I apologize. Next week isn't $500b in auctions, it's only $300b confirmed. Plus a few bill auctions of unspecified size that may bump us up to $400b or $500b. I regret the error.

https://treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/

>>56312617
>Introducing more credit in fractional reserve banking system has a deflationary effect.
Yikes, This conversation ends here.

>>56312617
What lower rates are you hallucinating about? Holy fucking shit,

>>56312614
this is jawboning. they probably won't do it unless core CPI also ticks up substantially.

>>56311580
>government
>vanishing

you do realize the government has never gotten smaller in its entire existence. Those jobs are permanent and more willl come.

>>56312635
It somewhat does in the near-term but definitely doesn't in the long-term.
>>56312630
You fail to understand how passive and easily manipulated angry people are when you give them something to hate.

>>56312635
>>56312636
since you can't read, he's replying to >>56312598

>>56312624
Yeah, the higher coupon on them locked in by today's higher yield, whatever. Semantics. The point is we are gradually fucking ourselves with higher for longer and cannot instantly unfuck ourselves with rate cuts. This is the Titanic heading right for the iceberg.

>>56312648
>Yeah, the higher coupon on them locked in by today's higher yield, whatever. Semantics.
no, it isn't.
know what you're talking about or just stop.

>>56312636
rates don't go up forever.

>>56312646
>You fail to understand how passive and easily manipulated angry people are when you give them something to hate.
Sure but this is something they've been building over generations, they're not going to blow it up all at once like that.
There's plenty of short term thinking in the government but there's also a lot of long term thinking if you watch carefully.

>>56312569
>the amount of interest the government has to pay is irrelevant to the amount of money they will need to pay it

>>56312654
I clearly know more than you, whose main concern is the auctions failing (lmao).

>>56312647
He replying to horseshit with more horseshit. well done

>>56312659
a $1000 note with a 5% coupon on it pays the same whether the yield is 10% because you paid less than par or -10% because you overpaid for it like a sucker.
you guys need to know the basics. you're not helping.

>>56312657
Anon, the government debt is completely out of control. Thats why they go up.

The world we knew is already dead. We've just been going through the motions for quite some time now.

>>56312667
The treasury needs to scrounge up that $50 every year, no matter what the bond is trading at in the open market, you dope. That's the problem.

daily reminder thatcpi came in lower than expected this month and powell can very much do a surprise cut to rape your little bobo ass

>>56311716
You telling me these trannies could be women if we believe hard enough.

>>56312672
Kek imagine how much they'll spike now maybe you can "get" crypto level returns like 400% APY.

>>56312680
CPI is trending up.

>>56312679
The IRS scrounges that up not the treasury (yet.)

>>56312679
you weren't in the conversation i was replying to but if you were this would be moving the goalposts.
to reiterate, the US government does not care where bond yields sit: >>56312569
as far as they're concerned, that's your problem. and these other replies to me are atrocious and you know it.

>>56312667
What do the margins on used cars sold by independent lots have to do with the margins on new cars sold by the factories?

>>56312711
they mean absolutely nothing to the "auto manufacturer" with the power to set price controls, to nationalize the "auto cartel", to individually close large successful "dealerships", to tax their behavior, and yours.
yield curve control exists at the fed, and not the treasury, for a reason

>>56312702
The treasury's the one that wires out all the payments to bond baggies. And, considering our balance of tax revenue to new debt, I think the IRS only gets like two thirds of the credit at this point.

>>56312707
Where the bond yield sits on any given day determines what coupon gets locked in for new bonds that get auctioned or old bonds that get rolled over on that day.

So yes, it absolutely does matter. If TLT shot to 150 on Monday morning it would not unfuck our interest expenses.

>futures

>>56312733
>Weekend Wall Street futures

>>56312720
Interest is still a fraction of tax revenue. I'd wait until it gets over 1/2 at least before I started saying the treasury is responsible for raising the money to pay it.

>>56312730
its fair to point out that it has a function, but this is basically irrelevant ever since the GFC. whereever that number goes, the primary dealers are going to have to suck it down. the fed will open the discount window for them again if necessary, because they're told to. there is never going to be this fictional attitude of "oh shit we can't raise money???" at the treasury. i do not understand why people keep dreaming this up.

/pol/ is saying full blown war is about to erupt all over the middle east.
how to play this on Monday?

>>56312758
It fits a narrative

>>56312766
>how to play this on Monday?
Monday will be the flattest crab day possible.

>>56312766
you sit on your thumb. bond markets open tuesday. only stocks trade monday.

>>56312766

>>56312766
Locksneed Martin Turbocalls, Biden already promised 8 Billion in aid. Also any publically listed Jew weapon manufacturers, if such exist

>>56312766
Oh and go long on oil companies. Oil will pump over this due to Iran's involvement

If china invades Taiwan then kiss your portfolios goodbye bois…. Expect markets to crater Monday. I hate Jim Brandon so fucking much bros it’s unreal

>>56312766
F since it’s unknown if Israel will attack Iran which could seriously snowball WW3

You're all lost, let me guide you

https://youtu.be/CgS5yC7OhNQ
https://youtu.be/CgS5yC7OhNQ
https://youtu.be/CgS5yC7OhNQ

>>56312790
>If china invades Taiwan then kiss your portfolios goodbye bois
Mine is pretty full of bearish positions but what's the argument here? That should be an inflationary event.

>>56312790
War is good for business.

>>56312797
>new weekly update
HOLY FUCK ANONS KINO IS BACK ON THE MENU

>>56312797
What happened to your old channel, Johnny Fathands?

>>56312797
>oil
I dumped mine and took the profits a while ago.

>>56312797
THE "STOCK TIP" IS OIL
I JUST SAVED YOU 4 MINUTES OF YOUR LIFE
FUCK YOU ROCKER

>>56312798
>>56312803
America trying to fight in 3 different theaters isn’t going to go well and if Winnie Xi Pooh ever has an opening to take Taiwan now will be the time… I’m just glad that I just turned old enough to not be eligible for the draft this year.

If Taiwan is attacked people will be running for the exits on their money that will make Covid look like mini dip. Besides our national debt is already near crisis levels and funding even the shit going on in Israel will only deepen our debt crisis in the bond markets.

>>56312756
It's not interest, that's yeeted into the expense column. I mean the fraction of money coming in via IRS taxes (~$4.3t) vs new treasury borrowing (~$1.8t).

>>56312758
The issue is not, and has never really been, "Yellen needs $100b but can only raise $50b". The issue with high yields is "Yellen can raise the $100b but it costs 5%, 7%, 15%, who the fuck knows" or "Yellen can raise the $100b but only from the Fed and its newly printed dollars". The former kills us through interest costs, the latter through hyperinflation.

>>56312766
Gold's taken a shellacking recently. Chase the safe haven bid there for a couple days. GDXJ calls if you're a mega degen.

we're crashing on tuesday because of this literal jewish shit aren't we

>>56312827
>I’m just glad that I just turned old enough to not be eligible for the draft this year.
Considering like 70% of Zoomies are too broken to sling a rifle, you bet your ass they're raising that age the moment a carrier gets sunk.

uhhhhh /smg/ bros.........am i siding with israel!?>!

>>56312798
most people will dump risk assets and pile into treasuries if this were to happen. crypto and stocks would suffer greatly, to some extent gold since it is still mostly paper speculation trades.
the fed would indeed slash rates and the US would indeed take advantage to greatly issue lots of new debt beyond just rolling over the existing debt. however, if you sit there like a deer in headlights, you will suffer a 30-50% drawdown in one day and then wait 3-5 years just to get back to even. the inflation that you're right about will not go to you first. unless you're a C-level executive at a defense contractor.

>>56312828
Meh. It's still 1/4th and 1/3 or so of that goes straight back to the IRS anyway so it's really even smaller.

>>56312837
Stonk markets are open Monday bond market is closed until Tuesday. It’s gonna be ugly

>>56312842
No need to side with anyone in my opinion.

>>56312828
sure, except, then the fed opens the PDCF so that bank of shlomo can borrow at a 1-3% spread while lending that 5%, 7% and 15% money.
not janet's problem. simple as.

>>56312842
>Brown jew mutt
>"uhhhh bros"
kys.
>>56312844
So I guess I'm "accidentally right."

>>56312797
It feels weird seeing someone smoke something that isn't a juul

rocker with the loft stairs he cant even waddle up

>>56311426
HIGH OIL DIVIDEND WITH TOTAL JEWISH DEATH

>>56312853
yeah just have some cash on the sidelines to open some spicy new positions when the opportunity arises.
there is a huge pool of foreign capital to take advantage of that will keep this absolute bullshit system, which >>56312828 and others are pretty assmad about, alive for another 500 years

>>56312852
Right, except that's just going down the hyperinflation path. Then yields start climbing as people price in higher long term inflation expectations.

There's no way to actually *solve* the dilemma with Jewish magic.

>>56312867
that's true and i didn't say there was :)

>>56312867
Wanna bet?

>>56312866
Anon, the Chinks and Saudis haven't lent us an additional penny in years. And this latest bond panic is in large part driven by Jap capital fleeing home. There isn't some magic foreign bid just around the corner that'd drag us back down to 3 or 4%.

>>56312872
I would absolutely love to hear your plausible plan to avoid QE stoking inflation or higher-for-longer F.E.D. policy continuing to crank up our interest expense.

Reminder: a recession to stoke a bond bid will exacerbate the deficit and flood the market with new issuance, especially during an election year.

it's over Israel is dead, new Israel has stalled, the market is dead. It was fun while it lasted anons.

Bros I work as a sound guy and sometimes I work weddings. I absolutely cannot fucking stand them, but I have 7 more scheduled through the end of the year. Do I just give up the ~ $2,000 and say fuck it or do I get the money??

>>56312840
I’m not getting drafted kneegrow millennials already put in our work, zoomers will be enlisting in droves on Jake Paul signs up for service like Elvis

I was on 4chan back when there was still ped0boards and gore. I was still broadsided by the sheer magnitude of enraged autism in /GME/ and /BBBYQ/
Holy shit
>>56312797
>new channel
Why

>>56312840
Lol if I get a draft notice I'm driving back up to Vienna and Rodyaing neocons until I get shot.
I'll fight but I'll fight my enemies.

>>56312908
He got doxxed on his old one.

>>56312898
When zoomers realize you can get up to 5.5 million fortnite V-Bucks just from signing on the recruiting offices are going to be completely full.

>>56312913
This is actually his 3rd channel now though. The Johnny Fathands one is still active

I don’t think I’m gonna make it day trading. I turned $150 into $400 last week then lost it on puts Friday. Like I’m really stressed out, I thought we’d break support on that jobs number. I’m so tired of being poor

>>56312946
Yeah you gotta blow up your account a couple times to get the hang of things. Keep waging.

Or join the military, throw your paychecks into a Boglehead fund, and spend your time levelling Gaza.

I miss him bros. I watch smith in the black ever day after market close l. Now I have no one.

>>56312946
Back when I was day trading I was risking like 15k to make $300 day trading is risky but options are literally casino tier, except at the casino you can win more and have more fun in the process too

>>56312959
>join the military and fight for Israel
I'd rather die then do that

>>56312946
Stop being greedy. Use runners for greed. If you can’t buy multiples of a fed you don’t need to be trading it. It’s really volatile and easy right now as long as you’re raking it in

>>56312877
don't worry. they're massive fuckups. it's temporary. their wealthy people will come to us again, same as they always have.
only americans work. we're too stupid to realize we're being taken advantage of, so we show up at work every day, and we work harder than everyone except japan.

>>56312887
i would only point out here that bankers aren't democrats, more hikes or a long pause where we are now, is still plausible. the cartel loves forcing dems to call for austerity just as much as they've enjoyed sending the GOP into foreign wars for the past 40 years.

I have a position in an Israel based semiconductor company. How absolutely fucked am I

After careful financial analysis and thoughtful consideration... I have regretfully made the decision to get drunk as fuck tonight

>>56313022
double down later this week.

>>56313022
Which one?

>>56313041
Tower

>>56313036
I don't think this will be a 1 week ride

>>56313022
They'll get a lot of new chip orders for drones I guess?

>>56313022
Probably gonna run hard tbdesu

>>56313053
I don't think having your hq in a war zone is good though..

>>56313058
Eh, unless some key employees got got in the initial raid, that missile defense seems reliable enough and they'd get exemptions from service. Of course if they only do civilian shit you are fuuuuucked.

>>56313048
>Tower
What was your original investment thesis?

>>56313048
>I don't think this will be a one week ride
Takes longer than that to make a parking lot, sure.

I get the impression this Israel shit isn't going to do much to the market yet. At least not until the US weighs in on what kind and level of support they're going to be sending.
I went to get groceries. There were a lot of minorities in the store. It was unpleasant. Why WHY are they genetically predisposed to standing directly in the middle of the aisles, doing nothing, looking at nothing, just standing there.
I'm going to make dinner now. I bought a pumpkin pie because I'm feeling seasonal.
Also I bought an interior car cleaning spray that smells like pineapple and coconut and is very pleasant. Turtle Wax product.

>>56313072
Intel bought them

>>56313072
>>56313048
>TSEM
Oh shit, god, I just noticed that. What a dogshit stock. Anon, sell that immediately and never turn back.

Park your money in fucking NVDA or something instead. Fucking hell, Tower Semi... Who on Earth told you to buy that?

>>56313095
>NVDA
wut.
>>56313094
How long have you been holding it? They canceled that quite a while ago.

All I can do is think about all the MIC slupring I did the last 2 months.

>>56313112
>>NVDA
>wut.
Assuming he wants a big semi play and things like AVGO or AMAT are too crabbish for his tastes.

>>56313077
That’s why you should do your grocery shopping at Whole Foods. Minorities can’t afford to shop there and the few that do show up are intimidated by the armed, uniformed off-duty cops that work as security there. It’s one of the few sanctuaries left without blacks if you live in a city.

>>56313116
I hope that doesn't include RTX. Because I think you'd need all of Gaza *and* the West Bank to get leveled for them to turn around.

>>56313133
I'm pretty sure Nvidia has been played and a lot of their stuff is smoke and mirrors regardless.

>>56313116
>All I can do is think about all the MIC slupring I did the last 2 months.
This "conflict" is going to be over by indigenous peoples day, your MIC plays aren't going to print.

>>56313144
Look at TSLA - insane valuations + growth grant an immunity to rape hikes.

>>56313149
>indigenous peoples day

>>56313135
Hmm. I will consider it. There is not Whole Foods here but there is an equivalent. It's called Sobey's.

>>56313158
Just order your groceries, it costs the same as going in these days.

Damn bros... I burned my hand making some chicken tendies for dinner
What does this mean for my portfolio... this can't be a good omen, right?
I think I'm gonna get a blister

>>56313152
Tsla has some disruptive tech behind them with their innovations in battery + gigapress but they will lose that edge over time unless they come up with new stuff that pushes them.

>>56311681
>Cash is king.

I still don't know what this means.

>>56313196
Sure, but their competition are the retarded Boomers and union leeches at GM and Ford. Same as NVDA's up against, what? Intel? The jeets at Microsoft?

>>56311683
>Tesla's valuation isn't based on sales anyway

Are .gov subsidies priced in?

>>56313204
People holding cash in money market accounts to collect yield

>>56313213
Everything is priced in.

>>56313210
Improvements in CPUs that make [1] more interesting.
This is the same thing that killed high end sound cards.
[1] https://docs.mesa3d.org/drivers/llvmpipe.html
Nvidia has other stuff than just graphics cards but those other markets are already very competitive.

>>56311622
What difference does that make?

This Israel shit doesn't mean shit. Market is going to pump so hard.

>>56313262
>>56313234
Also, that reminds me. Nvidia has a bunch of shit in Israel so if you're worried about TSEM you should be worried about NVDA.

should i get a job?

>>56313286
Yes but don't bet on keeping it.

>>56313293
if someone fired me i wouldn't take it well

>>56313300
Yeah so you have to make sure the pay justifies it.

When is fucking movie night happening!!! I WASHED MY PENIS FOR NOTHING WHAT THE FUCK!!!!!!!!

>>56313262
Israel controls the stock market. have you seen /pol/? All the spam and bot threads are dead, obviously Israel is having a hard time projecting its influence right now. I'm worried it will have a hard time manipulating the market money.

>>56313286
Get 2 or 3. You want to wagemaxx. Lazy "data analyst" or other white collar papershuffling jobs that you can do in 30 minutes a day while working from home.

>>56313324
What are you talking about it's nothing but spam and bot threads there still. Lol shill

Is the Japanese bond market going to collapse the world?

>>56313384
Nah, USA is ready to prop up WW3 with the shit happening in Israel right now kek

The high holy season is over, financially speaking

what's the business and finance themed movie tonight

>>56311975
>>56311942
All this, plus fuck that smug boomer who posts his blog here.

>>56313422
Which one?

>>56312601
i might be off numbers wise if the reporting was in thousands

imagine shorting fizzy bubbly

>>56313437
Yeah, what you'll have generally is something like an auction for 60 billion that gets a total of 100 billion worth of bids. The treasury looks at 'em, then issues all the bonds at the yield of the 60 billionth dollar's bid (say, 4.8%). 40 billion remains as cash in the hands of banks bidding 4.9% or whatever.

>>56313449
Which fizzy bubbly stocks did you buy, and how sure are you that the selloff is finished?

It's over for you sugar water drinking boomer fucks.

>>56313469
Michael Burry is a one-hit-wonder

>>56313466
>>56313449
By the way, PEP is mostly food and KDP is like a quarter coffee. So those are COWARDLY choices. They're not pure-play fizzy bubbly.

>>56313449
>>56313469
I wanted to short CELH. I knew I should short CELH. But I did not short CELH. Laugh at me.

>>56313412
Do we still have movie nights here?

>>56313501
Yes every Saturday

>>56313466
>>56313485
ok not fizzy but I actually made a fucking mint on MOJO and i shilled it here a couple of times in 2021/2022 and got laughed at

>>56313485
Real niggas buy FIZZ

buy in October and go away

>>56313483
At least give him credit for GME. He was a big reason for the early bull thesis.

>>56313527

>>56313534
Lol are you salty about Hamas?

>>56313541
Salty about what part? I'm just posting an old /tv/ meme

concentrated lemon juice is not the same as lemon juice
this cocktail is hard to drink

>>56311655
does europe understand how ridiculous they are

16 minutes to movie night! Tonite, this second week of Spooktober, the theme is Asiatic Horror! I have forgiven Japan for annoying me in 2020, so tonite's feature is Vampire Clay (2019)!

>>56313422
He'll just buy more cheap shares which will later enhance his already super comfy retirement all the more, salty little faggot kid.

>>56313578
hit me up with the link when its time, I'm on a new computer with no bookmarks

>>56313558
some difference in water and sugar content I suppose

>>56313599
got me puckered up real bad

>>56313598
It's Malthus_Mithraeum on cytube

>>56313605

Movie night movie night, get in here! Tonite's Spooktober spooktacular feature is Vampire Clay (2019)!

>>56312797
You named the Jew again, Rocker.

>>56312565
stupid retard