/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56302864
>, how high will they go?
7.5%-10%-15%

>>56302888
Checked and excellent bobo picture sir
We need to heal through rapid boomer 401k bleeding and death :)

what does this mean..?
nobody wants to buy government debt because they know it's worthless so they have to increase the yield?

>>56303002
thats what it looks like, but really jpow is rugpulling the bond market by drying up liquidity. bonds are being sold to acquire dollars which are becoming increasingly difficult to get. that's why the dxy keeps going up.
they can't keep it up forever, but they'll liquidate a bunch of people before treasury deficit spending forces them to stop.

>>56302864
>should I be worried?
How long will you be holding?

If you plan to hold them until maturity, you'll get the rate you expected.

But if you bought T-bills with four weeks until maturity and will sell after one week, yeah, you're taking some risk. You're basically speculating on interest rates.

>>56303089
We printed a fuck ton of cash how is the dollar any harder to get

>>56304960
things look funny in burgerland because the dollar is our currency, but every other currency is inflating away much faster than the dollar.
all that money has been spent and even more is needed to keep the music going. the global markets still run on dollars and they always need more. everyone bitches about the US dumping its debt on the world as if the world doesn't demand a shitload of dollars.
so, jpow is tightening liquidity and going to bankrupt anyone and everyone with bloated balance sheets.
we're gonna see a firesale on all kinds of shit because everyone has to pay their debts in dollars and the dollar tap is slowing down.
it's a textbook liquidity crisis. whether they let it turn into a credit crisis and great depression 2.0 is yet to be seen.

>>56305116
>whether they let it turn into a credit crisis and great depression 2.0 is yet to be seen.
Depends on the outcome of the next election. They likely won't dump it on an establishment stooge.

>>56302864
why do you care on a 4 week bill? even if interest rates go to 20% tomorrow, who gives a shit?
your bills mature in a month and you'll get face value back at that time.

>>56304960
what matters is the direction that the money supply is moving - it's staying flat or decreasing now. our system requires ever-expanding credit to not implode because there's never enough currency to pay off all the debt in existence.

>>56303120
even if it goes to 20% tomorrow, anon loses around 1-2% panic-selling on the secondary market, which is easily recouped by holding a month.

>>56305116
Thats not true. The Euro is at the same rate it was last year. Pretty stable

>>56304960
senpai out here we running 50% Yoy inflation and burgers be complaining about 6% lmao never listen to pol

>>56305252
Will it remain so when the next sovereign debt crisis hits?

>>56305535
Looks like its a race between Italy and the US. Kind of exciting who makes it first

>>56305292
Yup. We had 35% MoM inflation a few months ago here lmao. The system is too big to fail and there are too many jews who would lose money. Ergo, nothing ever happens.

>>56305140
Dumping it on an uncontrolled administration would be catastrophic. There's no guarantee that the right narratives take form for the right people to pick it up.

>>56302864
> I just bought 400k in 4 week t bills, should I be worried?
Nigger stfu its 1 month t-bills. You get all your money back + interest in a month. Yields rising dont fucking matter when the duration is that short. Now had you bought 30Y treasuries you would have some serious risk, but not 1 month tbills you little fgt

>>56306532

The only risk is if the government collapses :)

>>56302928
Aren't most boomers invested in bonds now?

>>56305116
.....so just short the dogshit out of everyone elses currency? It can't be that simple, can it?

>>56305116
While what you are saying sounds factual and technically correct, I must refute it by offering up a hearty "two more weeks."

The economy should have failed back in 2008 and then in 2020, but did not due to Federal Reserve nonsense. There should have been a bank run in 2023 when SVB failed, but there was not due to FDIC nonsense. The fundementals dont matter, nothing matters, the ride never ends and nothing ever happens.

>>56306647
Except it does - irresponsibly insane levels of government spending has forced the FED's hand - you can't QT truly effectively when .gov and the treasury are spending near $1T a month now.

2020 sealed the deal either way, but financial fuckery has been the norm post 2008 - They broke the 8 year cycle of major economic events ending in 08 with low interest rates and printing and they justified it with Keynesian MMT bullshit

We're not getting a soft landing, we're going to hit the ground like a fucking meteor

>>56306616
Its not. The Euro for example is quite stable

So what's the move to profit from this? Buy 1 month bonds? Bet against bonds? Go into forex and bet against non US currency?

>>56306815
Commodities

>>56306734
How old were you in '08?

>>56302864
>meltup
they're becoming cheaper. that's how yields go up.
>I just bought
no you didn't. 1pbtid

>>56303002
yield is a function of the current price.
>>56304960
time deposits are paying 5% right now. they were paying 0.25% just a little while ago. that's how.

>>56306857
Etf commodities? I use td ameritrade. Can I buy commodities on that ?

>>56306909
I don't know if commodities make sense, but you can use TD Ameritrade to buy commodity ETFs like DBC.

>>56302864
Basically, TerraLuna / Celsius vibes right now. Offering higher and higher yields to stop people from exiting. The collapse is imminent.
I can't believe crypto taught me so much about how the real world actually works. Thanks Satoshi.

>>56307079
https://youtu.be/vlq5rL95WH4?t=205

>>56307079
yeh I'm getting real 2017 vibes rn

>>56307293
2017?

>>56305116
>has been spent
Brainlet here.
If there is astronomical debt that has to be paid back, when the interest rates make that unsustainable.. and people have to pay shit back then.. isn't that a huge amount of demand for money?

>>56305116
oh i didn't actually read your full comment before responding

>>56305116
>whether they let it turn into a credit crisis and great depression 2.0 is yet to be seen
You're assuming they still have the ability to stop it. They don't. If they want to avoid Weimar solutions to Weimar problems, they need to prevent Weimar problems from happening. Weimar problems are caused by high inflation. High inflation is inevitable as long as the Fed's money printer is running. Therefore, stopping Hitler 2.0 (this time he's American and learned from the mistakes of 1.0) requires turning off the money printer. Turning off the money printer causes the financial markets to crash harder than Paul Walker

>If something is too good to be real, it's because it probably is.

>>56309350
nothing to see here

>>56302864

If you are worried about getting free interest on your money in 4 weeks, I think you should talk to your OB/GYN. Your birth control prescription is making you too emotional.

>>56311599

How much lower would this graph if we deducted the amount of money sent to Ukraine and Israel the past two years?

>>56311749
a few hundred billion dollars

>>56307293
anything with real value is going to melt upwards as the reflation trade comes back on with retard strength, DOW to 100K like Buffett said years ago. BTC to one milly, etc.

>>56305116
You are right, but things will change mid term.
More and more countries are starting to realize that they don't need to trade in dollars between each other (even thought some do, example Russia-India but they just need an alternative).
And as countries slowly abandon the dollar, the price of irresponsible fiscal policy is going to hit the US hard.

OP, as usual, is a complete faggot.
>1pbtid, posts about tbills "going up".
>Price is actually decreasing.
>Yields at the belly and long end of the curve are increasing faster than bills.
>Bear steepening crushing the entire world.
>jpow and the USD about to dollar milkshake all assets everywhere.
>stagflation about to crush the remnants of the American middle class.
Good luck bizlets, we'll all need it.
t. Oldfag who has seen some shit

>>56302864
Best bang is the 4 weeker. I’m still liquid for when the real estate market crashes due to the airbnb bubble

>>56302864
Infinity%, all bonds and all money will be worthless

>>56312093

See:
>>56312093
>The yields on treasury bills continue to skyrocket

>>56312191
>>56302864

looks like another line goes up thread and im late to the party

>>56302864
>you will get your initial investment plus interest guaranteed
>"should I be worried?"

>>56303002
No.

JPow is raising rates and pivotcopers are facing the reality of higher for longer

>>56307079
>"Two more weeks!"

>>56312022
>btc
>real value

>>56306557
If the government collapses, USD is worthless

>>56302864
All I'm doing now is throwing 8k a week into 4 week t bills. Getting myself about $30 a week.

>>56305157
>anon loses around 1-2% panic-selling on the secondary market

HAHA BUY HIGH SELL LOW

>>56306562
>Aren't most boomers invested in bonds now?

No boomers always buy Ramsey ELP approved mutual index funds. You new?

>>56306647

>The economy should have failed back in 2008 and then in 2020, but did not due to Federal Reserve nonsense.

If they had let it happen in '08 there would have been a non-catastrophic housing crisis, by 2020 they were full manipulate economy mode.

>There should have been a bank run in 2023 when SVB failed, but there was not due to FDIC nonsense.

The FDIC should only insure the median amount in an American citizen's checking account, which is likely like 25k, not 250k.

>The fundementals dont matter, nothing matters, the ride never ends and nothing ever happens.

The meme lines matter more than foundations? Who thunk it.

>>56312191
>>56312195
Wat? Fair warning, I'm drunk af rn and boutta finna go to sleep

>>56313083

>>56306857
always do the opposite of biz.

>>56307079
watch Bank of Japan. if Japanese FinMin announces an end to easy monetary policy and interest rates go positive, that means Japan will start to dump its treasuries to prop up the yen instead of just buying bonds directly like its been doing for years. it will be the end of an era and the USD will rapidly devalue as there is a rush for the exits, UST yields will go up sharply (not basis points but fractions of a percent daily) and US debt will likely be downgraded even further by ratings agencies like Moody's, causing a further cascading effect

>>56312795
median amount in an American citizen's checking account is closer to $250 than $25k, you are tripping your nutsack off if you think most Americans have more than $500 to their name. even the 5%ish that have $100k+ liquid aren't enough to tip the needle
>b b but Janet Yellen and the BofA CEO said that consumer deposits are strong!
they are lying through their teeth, all the numbers are cooked or just outright fraud.

>>56312046
those other countries will be fucked too, and more so. i mean, its not like there are a bloc of fiscally responsible countries out there...

>>56312046
>And as countries slowly abandon the dollar
i believe this absolute condition to be fallacious due to uncountable amount of leverage hidden in the system.

>>56313488
>>56313500
this anon is 100% correct
keep it based my friend

>>56303089
Your post doesn't make a lot of sense. Your reasoning skills are below par.

>>56312093
>Banks that bought Bonds at least a decade ago have to sell them asap or their business won't be seen as lucrative
>Investors probably gonna jump off
>bankrun.jpg
>FED steps in and prints unlimited amounts of money that straight up goes into the market
I am optimistic and think we'll see a golden bullrun, since everybody is gonna search for a better store of value, instead of a bank.

Don't worry glowbros i'll save your currency

>>56302864
wake me up when we're above 100% interest rates

>>56318135
Apparenlty within a few years interest payment Is going to be 75% of tax revenue

https://www.usdebtclock.org/current-rates.html

>>56306909
Gunr is the best commodities etf.

>>56313488
Who buys japanese debt if the bond yield are zero or negative?

>>56312523
>trustless money in a world of gov toilet paper
>not valuable
ngmi

>>56313488
Oh shid. Good point.

I thought the bond market was closed for Columbus day. How can bond yields still be moving?

>>56312046
>misunderstanding the dollar's role in currency swaps this hard
counterparty risk

>>56321001
>Who buys japanese debt if the bond yield are zero or negative
Commercial banks. Not necessarily because they want to, but because they're forced to.

The 9.15% bond

>>56321180
which website is this?

>>56321174
how? aren't there other investment opportunities in japan with higher yields?

>>56302864
The fed has expressed that they will continue to raise rates, things aren't looking good

>>56321189
The central bank issues loans to commercial banks. The commercial banks use that money to loan to their customers.
To shrink the money supply, those rates have gone negative.

It's wild, I know.

>>56302864
imagine bagholding 30 yr bonds with interest that is lower than 1m yield

>>56321230
Boomers think rates are going back down.
Doomers know they're not.

>>56321313
Finally being a doomer gets you paid.

>>56321227
so how does anyone make any money?

>>56302864
>im making even more risk free money than before... should I be worried
love the humblegloat. Haven't even scrolled down yet but I know there will be poor polcels crying about how "risky" of a proposition this is. They always cry...

>>56307079
Except in this case the government can literally print its own obligations away. Any liquidity crisis will be short lived and temporary, just long enough to get everyone to panic sell and rush into liquid dollars... and the cycle repeats.

>>56312046
....until you realize all of those currencies have even higher inflation rates than the US dollar, implement capital controls for fun and a history of default. But yeah, the doompornstars would have you believe just that.

>>56315872
Thanks just bought 100k

>>56303002
It's way more complicated than that. China and Japan are dumping US bonds because their currency is getting weaker from the US raising theirs

>>56321230
Good point.
Some people actually bought them and are now stuck with them for decades