/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56155637
>next black swan
/o/ and /sp/ board tourist here. What does that mean? The term specifically.

The dot plot confirmed rates will be 5.5% for more than a year, I can't fucking take this shit Bitcoin won't pump after the halving if rates are this fucking insanely high

>>56155652
the FTX collapse for example
investopedia has everything you need to know

>>56155652
Black swan is an unforeseen crisis that causes major damage to the economy. Like covid, 9/11, the housing crash.

>>56155664
Oh, ok. That makes sense. Nothing really happened from that FTX thing though, lasting impact I mean? Same with those recent bank closures. Idk, seems like the bank closures in 08 are a better example.

>>56155684
they were both black swans, it just means an event that causes severe turbulence to a market or to markets in general, 08 was a black swan to the global economy while mt gox or ftx were black swans for crypto markets

>>56155652
what this guy said >>56155664
it can be another major crypto exchange like FTX collapsing. it can be like covid, obviously it cant be covid again because the virus has mutated into a way more mild version that doesnt just kill you. it can be an escalation on the war in ukraine. it can be china finally invading taiwan. it can be related to none of these things and something completely new and different, but it has to be unexpected bad news which results in a decrease on the price of speculative assets like crypto and sometimes even physical commodities.

>>56155684
>Nothing really happened from that FTX thing though, lasting impact I mean?
correct. the next phrase you should become familiar with is "nothing ever happens".

>>56155684
The bank failures back in March were only a preview of what's to come. The same conditions that causes those banks to fail are still present and have gotten worse. Primarily the drop in bond prices. As the Fed keeps hiking and bond rates go higher, expect more banks to fail. The hold a tremendous amount of CMBS (commercial mortgage backed securities) and if those borrowers default, they'll have to realize the losses on their devalued bond holdings. Basically most small and regional banks are insolvent. The only thing keeping them afloat is the Fed's bank term funding program, and that can only do so much to keep them alive.

>>56155693
>>56155699
Well, thanks for the info. I'll check out that investopedia thing to learn more. Just heard something about fed rate hikes, and something about stocks tanking and this seemed like the place to go.

>>56155729
they will just print more money and use that money to bail out the failed banks, exactly what happened in march. sure some of the banks did not get bailed out but the big ones always do. you will foot the bill via inflation as always

>>56155736
Stocks tanked because of the dot plot update, the fed paused rate hikes but said that rates will be 5.5% for more than a year and markets dumped because they assumed the fed would cut rates very soon (like the end of this year or the start of 2024)

>>56155744
You and every other retard that thought the Fed wouldn't raise in November were proven wrong today. Jerome doesn't want to be the next Paul Volcker. He want's the economy to suffer so inflation gets below 2%.

>>56155771
i DID think the fed would raise in november though. of course he wants inflation to get to 2% because thats literally what he has said every single meeting. nothing has changed at the fed

>>56155729
>>56155744
The regional banks are gonna get rekt. The fed will buy mbs and t-bonds with the btfp to rescue depositors but it won't stop the banks from failing. It'll cascade until only select tbtf banks are left. Then the fed will lower interest rates to allow the remaining handful of megabanks to keep a positive spread on interest payments vs yields but raise reserve requirements to force them to buy a shitload of t-bonds and artificially inflate demand and lower t-bond yields.
Get ready for a wild ride

>>56155771
my nigga
they put a chart up out til 2026 that fuckin is OVER 2.5 percent. these niggas is all cap bruh

>>56155954
Did you see Powell say unemployment will only be 4.1 by 2025. Hilarious

>>56155637
Imagine believing the fed is gonna start hiking again after a pause when they’ve never in their 100+ year history done such a thing.