/biz/ - Business & Finance

Die lockdown cucks

Damn bros what did you do?

what do i buy

FUCK YOUR CALLS

>>56153934
but
the chink virus ended almost 2 years ago
whats this about

Soft landing in the economy, hard landing in the markets.

The 2 year treasury is starting to make me horny. Is this normal?

today was quite wild
but in the end sucked
every stock that i own
just got harshly fucked

>SOXS Chads
The semiconductor-semites must fall.

>>56154107
>semiteconductors

>>56154090
UUP calls. We're going to murder Japan and Europe with DXY 150.

Sing the song of blood and pain!

I need to find a way to short myself
This company (me) is run by incompetent morons (my brain) and its stock price (my life) is going absolutely nowhere

All of you will look really fucking stupid holding energy calls and treasury puts heading into the October lockdown that will usher in much needed and wanted stimulus and monetary easing.

Explain to me why you don't own NNDM in the year of your lord Jesus Christ 2023 when it's actually free money?

Alright so basically tldr is "anything can happen and we are not hawkish enough"?

There will eventually be a time to buy, how far away is that? I remember during covid there was a little angel that would keep saying to buy soxl and looking back it was right the whole time. When will that time come again?

I feel great about the way this is going.

I'm gonna be able to buy NVDA back at a reasonable price

>>56154099
medical or other mainly state settings where tracking of viral outbreaks or strains are of use.

So what’s the fucking point of a dot plot if you significantly change it every month? Worthless metric.

I didn't see the FOMC did he announce a pause of any kind? And will there be cuts? The moment he announces a cut I am getting the fuck out of my money market fund and all into bear etfs.

>>56154115

>behold, the wonders of the modern financial system

>Student loans resuming next month
>Auto loan delinquincies rising
>Savings at all time lows
>Credit card debt bubble expanding
>Housing markets are a shitshow

Bros, is the real reason that the FED did a pause is because the economy is so much fucking worse than they are letting on? I suspect we are on the path towards hyperinflation. These motherfuckers didn't learn their lesson from 1970s.

>>56154124
zirp zoomers need to die tbqh

>>56154143
It's about feelings. It's a vibe.

>>56154147
>behold, I forgot picrel

>>56154143
it's a humble forecast

As if its not going to be another bearish engulfing

>>56154148
Retard here. Is it safe to buy a used car that was previously owned by someone who couldn’t service the loan? How vaped out and shitted up is it likely to be?

Violent dump into close. That's another Biden win!

>>56154124

>>56154155
ZIRP is only bad if you're too inferior to outperform inflation, inflation is only bad in brown countries because brown people decrease in value.

>>56154173
>Is it safe to buy a used car that was previously owned by someone who couldn’t service the loan?
rofl if they couldn't service the loans, do you think they serviced the car?

>>56154127
He's trying to be as hawkish as possible without triggering "Fed done hiking!" headlines.

INTCchads, I have a question. What are the chances they will return to their glory days and start giving out nice divvies? The divvies kept on rising but then the last two Qs, they suddenly slashed them like crazy
Any Intel Chads here?

Also, just watch the EU fuckin pump tomorrow. God I am so sick of this dumb EU market

>>56154173
idk bro. I would hard pass until mid-late next year if I couldn't get it all on cash or at a buy here/pay here (reputable).

>>56154195
wtf she's literally 13

What did Jerome say? I thought fed day was supposed to be green.

>>56154177
Based, that's another Biden win!

EVEN CRAMER DOESN'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK

>>56154099
It's now endemic because it's the flu and that's what the flu does. People will still be catching the coof years from now but it'll have played telephone with so many immune systems that like most viruses it stops being as virulent just to be able to continue to survive. There will still be a need for tests and people are still going to get wicked sick and die but it's nowhere near the scale of what it was last time and in a few years it'll just be another background strain of the flu making its regular rounds around the world. That it was new and novel and where it came from is why it was dangerous. It's a nothingburger for most at this point and only a somethingburger if you're already pretty boned. Which is why lockdowns aren't going to happen in all likelihood, maybe in parts of the larger cities they'll be a thing if a whole block gets sick at once but everywhere else it's just the common cold.

>>56154181
and this children is the moral hazard we were all talking about after 08 when we said long term the banks, businesses and mortgage holders should have been allowed to fail

I think I'm gonna use the money I made from the dump get a new beefy gaming PC asap. I got a BAD feeling that prices will rise up even higher, the FED has given up fighting inflation.

>>56154195
What do alien feet smell like?

>>56154195
Remember when they drove away all their talent by slashing engineering salaries to protect the divvy? Then they cut the divvy anyway?

Yeah, I'm sure Intel will innovate their way to riches.

I missed the meeting, has Jerome hiked again, or is guidance to cut rates in 2666?

Ding ding ding! How did it go today anon?

>>56154148
>Bros, is the real reason that the FED did a pause is because the economy is so much fucking worse than they are letting on?
Yes

>>56154208
He said the same shit he always says, higher for longer. He just sounded like a pussy as bitch about it because inflation is going back up.

>>56154234

spy must die so that I can acquire gme cheapies

>>56154099
Alex Jones told everyone that a TSA agent told him that they're preparing for lockdowns back in August, a few days later they released the next variant in Canada, the FDA just approved new boosters last week. No one here is paying attention because they're at peak Powellphoria

>>56154208
> I thought fed day was supposed to be green.
problem?

>>56154234
>-1.53%

That Nasdaq chart looks like absolute shit

>>56154123
Sounds like someone needs to take the Boglepill.

>>56154234
Jerome Powell, the gains eraser.

NVAX bros... where is the short squeeze?... where is the FDA approval?... where are the droves of vaxxies lining up for our vastly superior product?... where is the all in Jan 2024 $25.00 call anon? i'm so heemed

>>56154234
How do you think?

comfy

>>56154234
-0.01%

>>56154234
Splendidly, thank you. Around about +5% or soabouts.

>>56154234
+3%, still down like 35%

>>56154138
Buy PLTR and NNDM. Like just do it ffs. It's the actual future. Especially PLTR. Every company is drowning in data they can never organise and processes bloated because of that. PLTR is solving that and they knew this problem is coming. Solving it will save trillions.

nothing burger nobody will remember this fed meeting next week

>>56154148
>Bros, is the real reason that the FED did a pause is because the economy is so much fucking worse than they are letting on?
They paused because they were ordered to stop, the QT was defaulting banks by fucking the bond market.

>>56154185
That’s what I’m afraid of.
>>56154198
I was thinking the same. If there is a significant enough downturn maybe the dealerships will stop with the markup bullshit and I might even buy new…

Noooo not my heckin hoomerino.

>>56154234
breddy gud, i closed out my existing short strangle for a gain on both sides before the announcement. Then went to get a haircut, a free carwash, and a KFC spicy chicken sandwich big box meal. Then came home and sold some new puts right before close. KFC has some bangin' french fries dudes

>>56154266
>he invested actual money in ccp driven /pol/ memes about the coof being a us government plot to keep him at home for free to win an election
yes

>>56154234
minus 0.05 but the position (my only one, BOIL) is still green.

>>56154293
Generally speaking, most people are gorilla niggers who never change any fluids and generally abuse the shit out of their car. I hear so much brake rub around town.

I contacted Charles Schwab about moving my inherited funds because vanguard has been sketchy and incompetent. I'm particular I had to spend over an hour on a painful conversation with some Asian lady who barely spoke English because their shitty site won't let me do anything online.
Wrapping up my day and getting ready to go home I get a phone call. Caller ID says "Charles Schwab."
I answer.
>HERRO? Is this Mr anon? I'm rooking foa mista Smith Anon! I'm cawring from charrers srab.

YOU HAD ONE JOB, CHUCK!

what do?

>>56154234
+3.5%, new ATH, +355.1% YTD

>>56154301
>yes

Why did it suddenly crash at the end?! What happened?

I got the follow up interview, bros. Pretty stoked. Awaiting the golden cage.

Also, if I were j pow, the fact the yield curve is still so inverted would drive me fucking bats.

>almost 1k shares of TSLY

>There're people ITT who are unironically long INTC

>>56154307
Everything is collapsing behind the scenes. Whatever people see day to day, the stuff you don't see is so much worse than anyone can imagine. It's miraculous this economy is still chugging along because no one knows what is going on. Planes are somehow not just crashing into the runway left and right and based on how incredibly incompetent everyone now is, it's unbelievable that they aren't.

>>56154307
HOOD
>HOOD
HOOD

>>56154307
All the Schwab series holders I have delt with have been absolute Chads. I didn't think Charlie hired Orientals

>>56154307
What problems did you have with Vanguard? I was honestly considering moving my money to them because I was feeling the same way about Schwab.

>>56154234
7%, the week was huge for TLRY shorts (puts). Sorry weed guy who shilled weed, the technicals were correct and showed weakness.

>>56154293
>I might even buy new…
I bought new car earlier this year on a small bet that interest rates are no going down any time soon and used car prices in particular are no going down soon either. Negotiated deal for MSRP and no a penny above. New car is in my driveway right now and looks quite spiffy.

>>56154234
just fuck my shit up.

>>56154347
>bollinger

ok,i'm out

Repent.

>>56154307
>be td chad
>get schwabbed
...its not fair bros.

can we please pump bfg token

>>56154336
Honestly, this sort of thing is why I'm still mostly long. It makes no sense that shit is still mostly working, yet it is. I admit that I can't comprehend it, and generally like go up, so I think it will keep going up for some time, maybe. (Though I'm about 1/3rd in fixed income.)

>>56154293
The car market is fucked. I am probably going to have to buy an old Toyota or Honda because my current cars trans is fucked.

>SOXS
>TMV
portfolio of champions

>>56154193
*dovish right

>>56154181

>>56154289
kek I would loved to have seen what a surprise 100bps hike in FOMC will do to banks

>>56154234
-8.1% NVAX

Watch closely now.

>>56154351
>Negotiated deal for MSRP and no a penny above
you got the hank hill special

>J-man cucks out AGAIN and lets inflation run even more
>the market fucking melts down lmao
KEK what the fuck did he say in the press conference?

>>56154307
What state do you live in?
I've gotten a few phone calls from Schwab, always someone from a nearby branch. Usually some middle-age man with a chad voice.

I don't know why anyone would want to talk to a human being from their brokerage though. It's always just someone pushing their sales pitch to become your financial advisor as part of a managed portfolio and take that 0.5%. I just let them go to voicemail and sort things out myself online.

>>56154221
>applying morality to finance
lmao

Updated chart just dropped, we still headed down.

>>56154393
Jpow wouldnt do 100, he likes to choke you slowly. Watch the denial, the optimism for reversal, and the best part: when they finally realized hope is lost and the panic sets in.

I hurt myself today.

>>56154148
60 yr old boomer here.
If you read doom news you’ll be in the perpetual “its gonna happen, anytime now” loop forever.
I speak from experience when I say nothing is gonna happen, it never has.

>>56154388
No, because if he was actually max hawkish and hiked another 25 bepis, that'd be it - he'd forever be either holding or cutting.

>>56154423
thats not what moral hazard is

>>56154424
>5
it's a scam,we pump back up next week

I sell UPRO options in my Roth IRA, ama

market tanking on absolutely no news
very manipulated

WORSHIP, WORSHIP, PLAY
WORSHIP, PLAY, PLAY
WORSHIP, PLAY, PLAY
WORSHIP, PLAY, PLAY
WORSHIP, PLAY
WORSHIP, WORSHIP

Feeling good today, because I managed to close my puts at no loss, after I fomoed into them 2 weeks ago. Probably was too early to close, but I promised myself to be more disciplined next time.

>>56154351
Nice work anon. I went to a dealership for a test drive back in may and the dealer tried to sell me a 32k car for 45k. I decided to wait a bit.

>that PPT green dildo at the last second
Boy howdy I love semites.

>>56154411
He didn't say anything different, it was his mannerisms in the face of increasing inflation.

>>56154424
it's either gonna drop 0.17% or go another 1%to the next level.

>>56154464
kick ass, BLESSED

>>56154442
>I speak from experience when I say nothing is gonna happen, it never has.
Commercial real estate will collapse here pretty soon, that will be the start.

>>56154464
I would've waited until tomorrow, but you did smart thing

>>56154387
Depending on how used we’re talking, they might be the same price or close to it.

How is it that I always sell my options to early? I made profit but I missed out on 300$ profit because I got baby bitch hands

>>56154478
Most commercial real estate is owned by the control structure and their banking cartel.
Think rationally now, what reason do they have to let it collapse?

>>56154478
CRE's collapse is actually good for the economy because its anti inflationary

>>56154342
The guy who picked up when a called about transferring was pretty white and articulate. I don't know why this rice hooker called me when she did.
>>56154345
Problems with vanguard:
>couldn't create account, infinite loops or 'call customer service" message
>had to get customer service (white guy) to force create account on one of their two websites
>still can't compete process, have to deal with chinky lady.
>imagine your most awkward chinese did order call except it's over an hour and instead of forgetting your eggrolls they forget your non IRA $68k brokerage account.
>get two scary emails that I have to get ahold of them within 5 business days
>when I do, all they want is my phone number
>I've given them my phone number for times already included on the only two documents they could have gotten my email they sent the information request to.
>now I can add a bank account and move all liquid assets, but if I want to buy or sell anything they need more info...
>website occasionally doesn't log me off even though I said to.

That's all I can think of, but as it is I really want to move everything and not give them my banking info or take the RMD. I want to move it all then do these actions with a potty trained white man, but I'm afraid that diversity has taken over everywhere.

>>56154424
that bottom trendline has no basis. there's not even a 2nd connecting point. could actually argue we're in an uptrend

>>56154516
>that bottom trendline has no basis. there's not even a 2nd connecting point. could actually argue we're in an uptrend

>>56154478
> THE MALLS ARE THE SOON TO BE GHOST TOWNS
> SO LONG FAREWELL GOODBYE

NVDA <$420 waiting room is open.

>>56154307
Tastyworks.

>re-watching the JROMEY speech
faggots in these younger generation with their constant "sort of" "kind of" faggotry, not to mention "upspeak".

>>56154500
>Think rationally now, what reason do they have to let it collapse?
Answer is always big daddy gov bailouts anon. Just need to cause enough of a pitfall to warrant it.

>>56154537
>Tastyworks
i almost want to open up a degenerate gambling account with them and exclusively sell naked options until I blow up the account

>>56154448
Next two weeks.

>>56154528
>tfw can't even buy an orange julius even if I wanted to

>>56154432
Michael Burry pls go

>>56154557
Why would Burry hurt himself when his nearly 2 billion in puts is printing?

>>56154555
Buddy, even if malls were still around, nobody could afford one of those.

>>56154412
>financial advisor
You guys set me straight on that and that's an entirely different issue. This guy was going to charge me 1% and as far as I can tell he didn't actually read the SECURES act and it's operating under the old rules and thinks he had convert a non eligible beneficiary IRA into a standard Roth IRA, and the funds will be available tax free once you pay the income on conversion (that's not even close to how it works.)
>why in person
I called them to see if their customer service was any good. I plan to learn to make money trading on the side (after a long practice/study period, relax) and was deciding between fidelity and Schwab. I was at work fucking around. I didn't get a chance to call fidelity yet. Maybe I should.
>where
Not saying, but their in person banks are all 20 miles or more away and the list is a who's who of douchebag cities.

>>56154573
didn't know there was an orange juice computer

>>56153221
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET
>TIME IN THE MARKET > TIMING THE MARKET

Welp. I lost a good 2% today.

>bitcoin dumped less than SPY
All in COIN and MARA when we stop going down in november

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vb19d08Lnec
bo-bo-bo-bo
bo-bo-bo-bo
Bo-Bo-Bo-Bo
Bo-Bo-Bo-Bo
BO-BO-BO-BO
BO-BO-BO-BO
BO!
...
CHARRRRRRRRRRGGGGGEEEEE

>>56154596
euphoria noted

>>56154602
50 cents have been deposited into your account Thank you for your service.

>>56154567
He's a NIN fan.

>>56154595
Why November?

>JUST IN: The Biden administration has announced will cancel nearly $37 million in student debt
>for over 1,200 students who attended the University of Phoenix.

>>56154541
Yes, and its the same status quo later, which is why I said nothings gonna happen.
They usually need an excuse to deflate more its gonna be commercial re now smth else later.

>>56154602
>euphoria noted
And then BOBO Fontaine comes along with his olive oil voice and guinea charm and she runs off

>>56154620
it presented itself to me in a drug fuelled vision

>>56153887
>coal [---] any recs in general?
I admit I'm not very knowledgeable on coal. Right now I don't have a long position for coal equities mostly because I'm uncertain of steel demand and because I don't see any obvious buying opportunities when looking at the charts. I know these companies tend to be even more hated than oil & gas stocks though, so they're probably cheap as long as steel stays in demand. The places to look at are either Australia or the US. The US especially has companies with good high quality met coal, as I understand. Companies like ARCH or ARLP should keep doing well as long as steel remains in demand. If you want thermal coal exposure, go for Australian Newcastle coal producers like WHC.

>>56154234
Just like you, an off day

>>56154630
I like how only the most brainless niggers who went to billboard colleges for 7 years get let off the hook

>>56154336
A bit melodramatic

And to think I was gonna buy the 442 9/22 put, silly me

>>56154620
We get correction, then we resume going up. No big crash.

>>56154378
You underestimate the strength and resilience of the consumer.

>>56154654
the board that cried wolf

>>56154663
The consoomer is fucked. How are you this delusional? People were fucked long before the rape hikes.

>>56154639
Based

>>56154660
Considerably more rational but less based

>>56154577
Fidelity is pretty similar. The main difference I'm aware of is that Fidelity pays better yields on cash because they auto-sweep to money market, whereas with Schwab you have to waste a few minutes to look at your cash balance and convert it all into a money market fund. My personal preference is that Fidelity has some better mutual funds too.
Fidelity is privately owned.

Schwab is pretty convenient to use for checking. They have fee-free ATM withdrawals including from foreign countries. That was my original reason for opening an account, before they merged in TD.

>>56154681
the consumer is fucked *eventually*, but you underestimate how resilient the consumer is. The consumer can stay unfucked longer than gay bears can stay liquid.

>>56154684
I think the differences are mainly because Schwab is literally a bank while Fidelity needs to do some magic with it and automatically puts it into a money market fund
>>56154699
One of the many important lessons about both the economy and the stock market is that it can be bullshit and nonsensical far longer than you can be patient

>>56154660

>>56154591
only true if you suck

>>56154336
Anon, maybe you've only noticed now for the first time, but that's the way the world has always been.

>>56154594
I lost 1.79%. It's over.

>>56154716
post your longs anon so we can all laugh at you

>>56154715
>I think the differences are mainly because Schwab is literally a bank
Probably true. It was also a completely irrelevant downside until a year ago, since we've just gone through an entire decade of near 0% rates.

>>56154660
lol retard

Does anyone know how to send a message back in time?
I want to tell my parents what to invest in back in the late 80s
And also tell them to abort me
Thanks

>>56154475
How do I into this level of charting?

>>56154699
>how resilient the consumer is
No I don't. I'm looking at how tapped out the consoomer is according to bank data. The consoomer is hilariously exposed right now. The percentage of people behind on mortgage and rent payments is rising fast. Inflation in goods is becoming sticky which means core inflation isn't going to go 2% any time soon which means mortgages are going to remain brutally high for anyone who is rolling over to the higher rate.

>>56154591
literally me

>>56154617
How unfortunate. No matter how rich he is, he's a fag.

Jerome, I'd like a word

>>56154759
If they aborted you, you wouldn’t be able to tell them what to invest in

>>56154770
He also likes Metallica.

>>56154684
I am using wells fargo because I had an account with them already and knew nothing. Am I retarded? Do I carry on for a 1yr learning commitment or broker shop now?

>>56154738
fuck you
im only down 5 bucks on my long
eat deep fried nigger dick

>>56154777
Sweet, then I get to destroy the universe at the same time

>>56154759
They've already decided to make an investment then
that investment was you, you knucklehead

Now stop making them regret it and get to work

>>56154103
you suck.

ABML got NASDAQ approval. Smart money goes in here.
>multiple government grants
>democrats love them
>sitting ontop of $1.3 trillion unrefined lithium
>huge startup company potential
>alot of former tesla execs

>>56154782
>Metallica
What's wrong with Metallica now? Fuck off you tranny zoom zoom

>>56154797
>Tripfag has shit taste
Many such cases.

You got everything you need? The chef cooked for you special, the dancers will kick your tongue out and your credit is good. Draw chips for everyone in the room so they can play on the house.

>>56154803
Go back, tranny. You'll never fit in here and you will never have a female pelvis.

>>56154787
the least you could do is check my digits BITCH

>>56154782
Sheeeeeit, it's even worse than I thought. Does he not know that they all died after Justice?

>>56154814
I'm definitely a man.

>>56154763
You are underestimating it. Consumer spending keeps rising. The consumer is fucked once he stops spending. Then and only then is the consumer fucked. It'll happen eventually, but for now consoomers keep consooming and therefore the gravy train continues. Heed this warning gay bears.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96
https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main

>>56154681
>>56154797
>>56154763

Namefaggotry is unnecessary on this board, as we all have unique IDs based on IP.
Please cease namefagging, as it immediately points out that you are either new here or intentionally trying to call attention to yourself, on a website whose entire purpose is anonymity.

Whats the opposite of DCAing? Because that's what I do. I sell once a month to pay bills and other expenses and my port is slowly fading away. I might end up in 5 figure hell by next year if we dont get another bull run.

>>56154837
taking profit?

>>56154793
eat shit, nigger

t. poem anon internet defense force

>>56154814
>calls others troons
>is a troon fan
wat did he mean by this?

>>56154837
Typical 6 figure fag, never learnt to perform well, can't go anywhere

>>56154793

>>56154814
>You'll never fit in here
>says the namefag who sticks out like a sore thumb

>>56154835
I'm new compared to the other namefags/tripfags, not newer than you though, been here (/smg/) since GME and /biz/ since 2017.

>>56154879

>2017
I believe you.

I recommend you stop namefagging. Remember, just because others do it doesn't mean it's wise. I say the same to them regularly.

>>56154783
Depends what you want.
I haven't used Wells Fargo. As far as I'm aware, most of those traditional banks didn't offer brokerage services until the past few years as they've started to realize they're losing market share from people that want more than 0% yield on their savings. I assume it's a pretty bare bones platform, but if it does all you want and there's zero trading fees then maybe it doesn't matter.
Half of my experience using different brokerages comes from passively managing my parent's 401ks/IRAs.

ffs we're going to have 10 days of my first threat of govt shutdown posting

>>56154896
No one cares. If you hate it so much, tell gook to remove the field, problem solved. That cunt won't even give us webp or webms with sound in all boards.

>>56154879
>since 2017
holy mother of newfaggotry

>>56154234
I want to die

>>56154786
>poorfag
Yeah opinion discarded

>>56154922

>>56154921
Based

>>56154905
The bond market is pricing in a default or near-default. :^)

>>56154938
then the bonds should be free

>>56154293
Based. Record yourself trying to get 25k in cash out and then post the kvetching for us to watch.

>>56154912
Names serve purposes in very rare circumstances.
For instance, telling a longform story on anotehr board without IDs such as /tg/, or, on occasions where a tripcode verifies authenticity between threads such as an expert in a field (recall Scooby Tripfagging on /fit/ before he was doxxed, it was useful to tell who he was).

However, 9/10, if not 99/100, names defeat the purpose of the site. I have said my piece, you will do what you will from here on, but I have at least offered my advice.

>>56154955

>>56154835
>replies
You are giving namefags exactly what they want anon. Filter and move on.

>>56154912
Fuck webp.

>>56154967
total web2 death

>>56154926
>*doesn't even look at you*
>*unzips pants*

after 3 years of doomposting I think I'll just admit that I was wrong. even if shits totally fucked, we're not going to see a crash. I was wrong, I'm sorry. yearly ATHs are normal, rates don't matter, everything is priced in, I accept this reality now.

>>56154912
I’d like IDs on fit desu

>>56154797
Metallica are the biggest hypocrites ever. Without their fans sharing bootleg tapes they never would have become popular, but they were the first to come out against digital filesharing. They really aren't that good. Their whole schtick they got from Dave Mustaine. They're a bunch of no talent hacks.

>>56154424
I like ~431 and then another couple of months crabsliming up and dec fomc send us back down to ~425 barring any black swans. Election script

>>56155006
top signal

>>56155006
It'll come when it comes. The gay bears will be right eventually, but likely not as soon as they think.

>>56155014
Lol, it would help to filter keto schizo.

>>56155029
not until the retard has bought

TLT is actively managed right? Like are they dumping their lower yield tbills for current rates or are they held full to maturity and replaced slowly?

The even if it's the latter the longer rates are this high and the higher yields enter that basket the more TLT is going to explode if they ever go back to near 0.

There are anons in this thread holding ARM

>>56154831
Consumer spending keeps rising because they're being price gouged down into the deepest pits of hell. And the spending isn't discretionary, you can't opt out of food and housing if you like being alive.

>>56155006
>after 3 years of doomposting I think I'll just admit that I was wrong. even if shits totally fucked, we're not going to see a crash. I was wrong, I'm sorry. yearly ATHs are normal, rates don't matter, everything is priced in, I accept this reality now.

>>56155041
I didn't spend it on stocks or bonds, I bought a lot of stuff I've always wanted, I bought a new car and a new laptop. I'm done with the market. I have $0 in my brokerage account, I have $500 in my checking account and rest is gone now. I'm free.

>>56154831
Do you buy your own food ?

>>56155030
how many times must the slow collapse of societies be explained to you in the context of one of the pillars of that society.

>>56155070

>>56155074
deflation is coming

RIOT calls

>>56155092
>my money is worth more and I can buy more goods and services
based

i bought today
just a little, right before market close

>>56155006
this is how I feel.
This shit will never crash unless a world crisis happens. Corrupt system. buy Calls boys

>>56155006
People are gonna keep going, keep trying to succeed. They're not just going to throw their hands in the air and give up. You zoomer doomers and Gen Z doomers I used to work with are insufferable.

>>56155059
Ok nigger

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEDGC96
>Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods: resumes trending up
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCESC96
>Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services, ATH and trending up

How will you gay bears cope next?

TTOO to $10 please I want to pay off my mortgage

>>56155075
You too faggot. See >>56155131

The consumer doesn't give a fuck.

>>56155137
Why would it

>>56155006
>>56155074
>>56155109
>>56155125
All samefagging fed shills will end up in gitmo.

>>56155046
it tracks an index so passive

>>56155125
there is something funny about a generation of people who claim to believe in free markets but then think all human life will halt because number not do something expected or wanted

>>56155094
not yet

>>56155137
Anon you sold after the gov grant was confirmed right
...right?

>>56155145
Because plebbit pajeets and nigs said so

>>56155173
You’re gonna make it
post your position as a screenshot

I'm still holding 10k worth of bbbyq btw

>>56155107
Same...

>>56155185
why? What compels you to turn $10k into smoke?

>took a walk to plan ahead
>decided to buy spy puts for the next day during powell speech due to bad data
>decided to buy puts and calls for the gaps in the morning tomorrow
>end up buying 0dte calls instead because I figured pump+dump
>just straight dump
>end up buying puts and calls for tomorrow way out of the money so I’ll lose money on those too
I am my own worst enemy

>>56155147
Nah mane I made a good point. Ree. You guys keep trying to put your brains in other peoples' bodies. Not everyone is as sad and upset as you.

Fed was balanced as FUCK today which means we need a gray or black swan catalyst or we pump in the new year. But markets and forums wanna go-- "Oh no! Oh no1! Oh no!! Gotta sell/buy? Which? Ah!"

Do nothing. Stick to your fuckin strategy

>>56155234
I don’t have a strategy

Lmfao the Fed comes out and does LITERALLY EXACTLY WHAT WAS EXPECTED and somehow retail bears go into a selling frenzy. Unironically dumber than every other FOMC meeting, expect a ridiculous pump. This is the most obvious bear trap after a completely fucking retarded August.

>>56155220
politics as a sport and those emotionally invested will blindly see the good/bad in everything their team does/doesn't do

>>56154761
Lining up tops and bottoms using higher timeframe; ie. 1W,2W,3W,4W,1month,2month, 3month, etc.
b bands also coincide with these diagonal support lines.

Everyone has different ways of using these indicators. I suppose people don't reveal their shit because it's the secret money sauce, or ego cause what if your indicators are shit.

>>56155220
Most obvious glownigger I have ever seen in my life. You still haven't made the connection in your little government drone brain that everyone's individual lives are getting worse because the country as a whole is in decline. Largely thanks to your own actions, I might add.

Shills going into overdrive ahead of the market collapse and US default.

Some asshurt cunt simp was so asshurt at my name that I got reported by this suicidal fuck, again lol.

I will break every simp, watch me. Starting with putsrnotdawae.

>>56155268
/smg/ isn't your safe space

I will buy buying nvda all the way down to wherever it settles just like I did before and you cannot stop me and my giant blackstone holdings either.

>>56155285
It's not yours either, NIGGER.

>>56155006
I came to the conclusion that investing needs almost zero finesse.
Most everybody's success has not been their own, but only the nature of printer go brr & number go up.

>>56155293
yes you can say nigger here, and also hold different opinions without being on the payroll of the cia

>wrote some calls today
>markets crash at night
heh, guess I can buy them back today with 50% profit

I dont play video games really except for FIFA on my Xbox. What the fuck is Unity (Ticker: U) and what is everyone upset about.

>>56155240
I trade indices. People call it SOXL but it's an index. I took the advice of people here back in 2021 who said "choose SPY. Trade covered calls on it." I can't afford that yet. So I'm doing SOXL, which is 20 times cheaper so I can sell more calls.

It's not easy. It's hard. But indices are less hard--even leveraged ones.

>>56155293
NIGGER SCHIZO, not everyone here is taking their stock tips or macro takes from fuckwits on /smg/. Schizos need to go back to /bbbyq/. What kind of fucking idiot do you have to be to think we're affected by glowniggers. This isn't /pol/.

>>56155262
Yeesh I stopped--I can't even be reading past that first half sentence. But here's my Mads cause we agree on that

>>56155304
>>56155319
>>56155323
"NAFO" is a cover for shitty government-ran public influence operations. Cope.

>>56155046
>Like are they dumping their lower yield tbills for current rates or are they held full to maturity and replaced slowly?
doesn't look like it. picrelated.

it is a mystery to me how TLT (at current price) can "yield" over 100bps less than 20y+ US gov bonds.
theoretically anybody who's buying TLT now is purchasing its current holdings willingly below market value and below any reasonable expectation of return.

so far nobody has been able to explain why TLT price & yield does not adjust so it yields comparative to current 20y+ yields.
people only hurrdurring about their holdings having been bought when bond prices were higher (yields were lower)
MOTHERFUCKER JUST BECAUSE A ETF HAS BOUGHT ITS HOLDING AT HIGHER VALUES THAN CURRENT MARKET PRICES PEOPLE BUYING THE ETF WON'T PAY A SURCHARGE IF THE HOLDINGS FELL IN VALUE.

again, nobody was able to explain this so far.

>>56154148
reality always lags behind the indicators
The year leading up to the 2008 recession people were doomposting everyday about a housing bubble but they just looked like salty schizos

Baggots are fucking desperate to stop NVDA going under 420

>>56155337
>NAFO
No one cares. Leave you /pol/tranny.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

>>56155338
I could explain it. I won't, but I could.

>>56154442
Why don’t you go donate your grand kid’s inheritance to Ukraine.

>>56155249
>He didnt read the statement
>He didnt note the changes
>He cant read a dot plot
>He didnt watch the q and a
Nigger do you even speak english?

>>56155352
I know that's you, CLFtranny.

>>56155317
Where do you see SOXL going by the end of the year? I unironically think it could go to 50

say anything positive about the west and watch them descend

>>56155185
>"didn't want the money anyway"

>>56155338
>Perhaps there is a scenario whereby a large volume of x (low yield) offsets a more attractive but more expensive y of a lower volume ?
>blackmailed into buying this trash
>fed fabricates buyers and prints the money quietly at a separate site to make things work
>any number of other insane kikery not unlike what already goes on

It’s a mystery

APOLOGIZE RIGHT FUCKIN NOW

If I sell tomorrow, the market will recover
If I buy more, it will continue to dump

>>56155397
Keep projecting, troon.

Another day. Got a drive bay adapter for my server. Can turn 3x 5.25 bays into 5x 3.5 bays. So two more drives I can add now. (already have 3x 3.5 installed in the existing bays). Combined with my soon to be fatter internet pipe I'll be set to keep on rolling with my hentai manga and other collecting for a good while yet. Hit up MCD's after work. Had a glimpse of "normalcy". They didn't fuck it up and the girl at the payment window didn't have any tattoos, piercings and was nicely gifted in the asset dept to. I admired her for a bit freely as she processed my card. What? Hey a normal looking girl is a rare thing anymore.

Buddy. Yields haven't been this high since 2007.

>troon
>mutt
>ukraine
next will come the hyperinflation/deflationary depression (depending on the weeks notes)

>>56155394
I want it to go to 50. I don't think it's going to 50. I think it's going to $40 max if there's some kind of Santa Rally White Swan. But that's insanely doubtful.

Realistically I could see it hovering between 26 and 30 before the end of the year

>>56155268
I have noticed this as well across all social media / internet (and /smg/)
the closer and more cracks appear, the more they double down and insist that everything is fine
and it makes sense honestly, that if you're fucked either way, you might as well try to avoid the crisis by manipulating public opinion - what do you have to lose?
we're already going into a 1929 tier event - so why not try to make it less bad, whatever the means
also, power is desperate to hold onto power
/smg/ has been pretty crazy the 1 post by this ID demoralization, trying to silence free discussion, attacking any posters who are discussing macro [Durrr why are you guys writing more than one sentence on 4chan] --- real attempts to silence free speech and open analysis
shills in full force, getting paid overtime

Bulls are being herded to slaughterhouse right now.

>>56155460
>we're already going into a 1929 tier event
how so?

>>56155407
I kneel.

>>56155404
I don't understand, I just don't.

investors expect yields to rise
>buying into a ETF that is priced at a surcharge compared to current yields and prices of it's supposed benchmark
or
>buying to 20y+ US gov debt directly, at lower prices and higher yield compared to the ETF
>eat a fucking shit sandwich (but less of it compared to buying into the ETF) over the time that yields might still be on the rise
clearly option #2,
ie NOT BUYING TLT.

investors expecting yields to fall
>buying into lower priced gov bonds directly, securing a higher yield, sell bonds later at higher market prices perhaps
or
>buying into a ETF which yields lower than its benchmark yields therefore demanding a surcharge in price compared to the current market values of its holdings
>price appreciation in case of yields rising probably not as high as buying bonds directly
clearly option #1,
ie NOT BUYING TLT.

there might indeed be some illuminati shit going on with TLT.
somebody pumping endless amounts of funds into it trying to prevent the inevitable (lower prices, higher yields on TLT)...

>>56155439
>ctrl+f "mutt"
>1 result
Now two results. The shill projection continues.

>>56155407
we don't know any of the specifics to his entry point.
we don't know date, we don't know products, we don't know price.

>>56155484
you're very easy to notice is the point. have your supervisor reassign you.

>>56155472
THE BONDS, THEY HUNGER.

>>56155338
Ok, I will explain. First you need to understand the concept of yield to maturity:
>https://www.investopedia.com/terms/y/yieldtomaturity.asp
Then you need to understand a coupon rate:
>https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coupon-rate.asp
The most extreme version is a zero-coupon bond. This is a bond that has no intermediate payments. The only payoff is that you get par value at maturity. To achieve a positive yield, these are bought and sold at a discount to par. The yield shows up as zero because there are no payments, but the discount to par should in theory slowly decline as it approaches maturity.

For the past decade, coupon rates were very low. This is because rates in general were very low. TLT holds long duration treasury bonds, many of which were auctioned off curing this low rate period, and thus have low coupon rates.
But that is not the most important factor. Investors looking for the best return are paying attention to the complete yield to maturity. TLT buys and sells those long duration bonds at market price today, and the ETF trades at the current NAV of those holdings. However, since the bonds were offered at lower coupon rates, they trade at a discount to par today. A small portion of the payoff is actually coming from that discount to par, which will resolve as it approaches maturity. Instead of paying that 1% or w/e back to the ETF holders, in theory you could expect the NAV of TLT to rise by 1% per year all else being equal.

One caveat about lower coupon bonds is that the implied duration is longer. Every payment is value being cashed out that can be reinvested. The faster and higher these payouts, the shorter the duration risk. Zero coupon bonds give nothing at all until maturity, the maximum duration risk. TLTs holdings lie somewhere in between. Implied duration is good though, since the entire point of TLT is to serve as a bet on long duration yield.
There's also some small tax advantage to longer duration and delayed payout.

>>56155317
are you me?

>>56154286
I sold some of my PLTR last week. No regrets so far. Will buy it back for less. The ebbing tide sinks all ships.

>>56155512
>>56155512
>>56155512

>>56155506
Dumb shill.

>>56155513
there is literally nothing about the world today that could be seriously compared to the world in 1929 and the run up to the great depression

Who got >>56155555

>>56155472
>he doesn't know
buddy, for the last 15 years there has been TERRIBLE loan origination, just like 2008 - just pump out as many loans as possible, regardless of the interest, regardless of the ability for repayment, regardless of the interest differential
all the banks have positioned their balance sheets as if real estate could never go down in value - especially commercial real estate
they are getting hit on their balance sheets by
>infinite bad loans
>bonds on sheet worth much, much less - billions and billions in losses at every bank
>commercial real estate valued 60% less now with WFH
>outflows of deposits, as people don't want to keep their money in the bank if they can be buying higher yielding bonds
we are going to see hundreds of banks fail, countless bonds fail, requiring emergency Fed action, bailouts, cuts, the works - it will not be enough to save the economy
the house is made of straw, built on bad debt - the whole thing is going kaboom

>>56155450
Yo I'm so bullish on Nyan Cat Money...the whitepaper legit makes me cum everywhere. It's the real future of crypto. The team behind it is stacked with heavy hitters too. And the roadmap will take us to 100x in like 2 weeks I swear to god. You should totally sell everything you have and go all in, this is the most solid play I've seen in months. It's gonna be the most lucrative thing I'm a part of this year, period. Oh yeah, and the memes are pretty epic as well. Don't miss the launch bro.

>>56155407
I was wrong to say you were wrong to say Sell.

>>56155554
that isn't what caused 1929 tho

>>56155712
which is why I said 1929 TIER event, which you even have included in your direct quote >>56155472

>>56155511
I still don't see this as succinct explanation of the price behavior of TLT.
First of all, not a single one of TLT's us gov bonds is a zero-coupon bond.
Secondly, I know that TLT has to rotate their bonds to keep them at certain maturity thresholds. (No, they are not holding them to maturity. I am aware of that)

Now please answer me the following:
when TLT is buying a bond at current market price, no matter the coupon rate of the bond at that time, they are very likely to buy the bond at a price that would yield them an (annualized) yield comparatively to the current benchmark rates of 20+ maturity bonds FOR AS LONG AS THEY HOLD THE BOND.
since most gov bonds have two distributions per year, and none of the TLT holdings are zero coupon, they get cash through distributions all the time.
now I understand for them to remain in their average maturity bracket as by their bond specifications, they need to rotate.
so they gotta eat a shit sandwich and in the worst case sell their holdings at a price loss greater than what they raked in with the distributions...

so what you're telling me is that since TLT price is cratering & they keep on paying out a distribution they mathematically have to go to ZERO since their investable pile of funds keeps on shrinking from having to rotate in a rising yield environment + paying out dividends?

>>56155338
Im not going to explain it well but I will explain it. The yield is baked in in the form of the value of the bond. Ill give an extreme example
You have bond A yielding 2% maturing in one year. Rates are raised and now you have a new issue bond B yeilding 4% maturing in one year. In order for bond A to equal the yield of bond B it would have to drop 50%. However the market is smart and prices in what is known as "arbitrage". If you bought bond A for a slight discount then you wouldn't receive the same yield payout as bond B, however when it matures in a year than the lower payout + the discount of the bond bought would = or even exceed 4%. So in short, the discount in the 20 year bonds/fund will equal the higher yield when they mature even though the payments they currently offer are lower than the newer notes, you are buying less current income in exchange for capital gains (or more price appreciation when rates start lowering). hope I explained it well enough.

>>56155753
ty.
You explained it well and I know that.
However, I don't see this as a explanation to the behavior of TLT prices (and distributions).
Might be a me problem, though. :)

>>56155743
>when TLT is buying a bond at current market price, no matter the coupon rate of the bond at that time, they are very likely to buy the bond at a price that would yield them an (annualized) yield comparatively to the current benchmark rates of 20+ maturity bonds FOR AS LONG AS THEY HOLD THE BOND.
Wrong. Current market price is not always par. As I wrote previously, due to suppressed rates for so long it's really only a small subset of bonds from recent auctions that trade near par. Even most of those have shifted below par as yields keep rising.

>so what you're telling me is that since TLT price is cratering & they keep on paying out a distribution they mathematically have to go to ZERO since their investable pile of funds keeps on shrinking from having to rotate in a rising yield environment + paying out dividends?
If yields keep rising TLT will continue to tank. But since their distribution yield is low than the YTM (maturity yield), all else equal the market price of TLT will actually trend higher over time. What'll happen internally is that TLT slowly sells down bonds that go below 20 years, and buy new bonds that either trade at a larger discount to par (due to further duration) or have a higher coupon yield.

It'd probably be easier to understand with an actual mathematical example of something with a 3% coupon yield and 4.5% YTM, but I'm not the one to do that for you because that's not math I can do reliably off the top of my head.

>>56155820
>Wrong.
No, I am correct on what I was trying to convey.
It's either I did not do a good job at conveying my point or it is you who misunderstood.
I was talking about annualized yield.

>If yields keep rising TLT will continue to tank. But since their distribution yield is low than the YTM (maturity yield), all else equal the market price of TLT will actually trend higher over time. What'll happen internally is that TLT slowly sells down bonds that go below 20 years, and buy new bonds that either trade at a larger discount to par (due to further duration) or have a higher coupon yield.
This I agree with.

>>56155712

>>56155939
lol thought this was a clip from billions but I guess he's supposed to be bernanke here?

>>56155932
In that case, I think we're on the same page.
One thing I did not mention is that ETFs have their own rules on how taxable gains apply to holders, and tend to pay out yields that would cover that taxable portion. There are some tricks around this as well, which I am not an expert on. Something like recording a portion of cap gains against redemptions so that continuous ETF holders don't owe the tax.

>>56155974
>billions
I stopped watching early into the second season as it became obvious that literally every character on that series is an insufferable cunt.

>>56155983
Thank you for pointing that out.
Taxation is something I didn't consider at all.

My bros, this ain't good. Rich folks are starting to realize their dollarydoos are about as useful as dogecoins.