/biz/ - Business & Finance

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>>56115464
>>56116415
You have too high IQ for most of this board. Great idea and play.
Massive worldwide structural deficients and underinvestment, demand has only increased, SPR empty, political maneuvering, electric vehicle scam

>>56116467
Thanks.
Biz is filled with dumb zoomers trying to pump their crypto bags

>>56115464
I drive an EV and am therefore better than you little boys
t. more money than you

>>56116587
Onions
Have fun having to buy a new car when the battery life goes to shit in 3 or 4 years

>>56116629
why would I buy a new car a not a new battery low IQ anon? Batterys don't di that fast. Sounds like you don't have an argument

Even if you try to confine talk to a side thread I will continue to shit up smg
I know this game

>>56116587
i fly a private jet. stay poor, nigger.

>>56116467
jack the price way the fuck up so the poors cannot afford to consooom anymore and save the planet at the same time. the L33t still get to enjoy business and life as usual, but there are only few of them. CO2 emissions go down, planet saved, we're all in this together poors.

>>56116683
Batteries will be glued in just like on smartphones, so you can't change them and have to buy a new car, EVs are a scam

>>56116743
The average citizen have low IQ, they elected Biden.
Biden stopped the Keystone Pipeline; new Alaska drilling and emptied the SPR. Europeans voted for the same low IQ, leftist, scam politicians

Now, the average low IQ people, complains because their votes have consequences and oil prices are probably going through the roof this winter.


And I'm very happy because I have oil stocks, thanks low IQ voters!!!

>>56116749
>Batteries will be glued in just like on smartphones
Ah so you're just using headcannon because you don't have an argument? Go it

>>56116415
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qQ-aTQTwu8

>>56116836
I don't get it

>>56116629
people already buy a new car after 3-4 years

>>56115464
Drill, drill, Frac, then drill some more. I love looking at my bank account to find some more royalty money snuck in there.

>>56118411
Why do you get royalties?

>>56116683
Because for the price of a battery pack you might as well just buy a new car.

>>56118464
Investing in wells. When they drill a well they’re drilling on other peoples’ land with other peoples’ minerals under it. They have to lease that land and mineral right from those owners. Those people get a piece of the profits. Royalty interest is an investment in a well purchased because you think that well will profit. When it does produce oil you make a percentage of the profit from the sales.

>>56118464
>>56118664
When the world economy finally hits a rock bottom floor the likes of which nobody alive has ever seen, I still own rights to a precious resource and will continue to profit from it. I’ll take savings and whatever leverage I might need to buy more minerals and physical land (and as much of its minerals as I can) at dirt cheap.

>>56118664
How do you invest in wells?

>>56118737
I work in the oil and gas business in Texas. I started out as a landman after flunking out of college. Landmen hang out at county courthouses going through historical records to see how a piece of land’s mineral interest got divided between people through history. If a company wants to lease some land, they send landmen out to figure out who all owns a piece. Now I work for a small operating/production company and when there’s a new well we or somebody else we run around with plans to drill I’ll take a look at the geology and surrounding plays. If it looks good I’ll see if they’ll let me take a piece.

>>56118737
At the same time, you can pay attention to when mineral rights might come up for sale somewhere. Somebody dies, some dumbass in the family screwed the pooch and needs to sell some stuff, whatever. If you see an option to buy mineral interest then you buy whatever you can. When somebody wants to drill for your minerals they’ve got to give you a cut.

>>56118807
How do you know if the land have oil?

>>56117018
it's a 4chan copypasta

>>56120166
US Geological maps or State natural resource maps to show where the oil deposits are known to be
located

>gazprom
>owns massive share of the world's gas and oil reserve
>undervalued
>doing well despite sanctions
How the fuck do I buy Gazprom stocks outside of russia?
It's gonna moon after the war and sanctions are lifted

>>56120166
Well, there’s well logging for one. When somebody else drills a well in the area they keep track of what kind of rock they’re hitting at different depth and you can use that to help determine if there might be oil somewhere else by comparing to the geological make up of the area. Different sediment (which becomes different rock) gets deposited differently over time and you can use the layering of that rock to determine if there’s a spot where oil might have traveled or formed in more porous rock and settled under dense rock. Those rocky strata can look like lines and waves and just a bump up of porous rock in a spot with know oil could have a ton of oil trapped in there,
Then there’s seismic logs, those are basically using the sound and refractory waves to measure out what kind of rocky strata is below. Imagine you could beat the ground really really hard and measure the changes of the sound waves echoing back to figure out the different densities of the ground below.

>>56115464
indeed. Happily holding o&g stocks.
>>56120476
sadly not possibru if you live in the West. They have so many companies I'd love to buy but the times of globalism are coming to an end it seems.

>>56118685
you will own nothing when shit hits the fan because that piece of paper you have won't mean shit. raiders or the local warlord will sit on that land and take everything. unless you can hire an army to fight for it, there is absolutely nothing you can do about it

>>56116629
>gotta buy every 3-4 years
well, people already treat cars like iphones that have a 2-3 year lifespan, but aside from that, the batteries would still have at least 90% capacity unless you're driving 50k miles a year.
i don't like EVs and they make zero sense in my climate, but they aren't the devil

>>56121666
Go put your helmet on Jeremy or stay in your safety pen.

Wonder if oil takes a hit when 500k bopd come back online from Kurdistan next month

>>56121738
>boomer tier insults
you have to be under 45 to post here, go back to facebook

>>56115464
>Russia wants to fuck the west with high prices
oh god please don't increase the price of something we export and would benefit domestic oil companies

>>56116817
>Biden stopped the Keystone Pipeline

They do this for money. If oil costs more great then I can charge more for it, especially if the media gives out all the reasons why. If oil is to cheap no one digs it up, if its too expensive less is purchased at first. Its a primary resource with few alternatives, adjustments are made then we adapt to the new price. Doing away with gas cars will obfuscate the energy costs. They won't be able to connect high energy prices with high prices on everything else they buy. The SPR is retarded, we dont need a reserve. We have a reserve called the US and its filled with oil and we actually export it and have reduced how much we use through efficiencies. Why would gold mine need a reserve of gold? Does Saudi Arabi, Iraq, Russia all have SPRs? That makes 0 sense to me to have one.

I'm mostly only ever in /smg/ anymore out of this entire demonic shithole fuckin' website, but have had this thread in my Watcher and been...*watching*. Picrel arrived in the mail today and I figured perhaps some here might either own it and have insight, or think "I'd like to own that". So, here it is, along with a BUMPARINO.

>>56122858
ToC
This is *not* a trading book, btw. The target audience is people investing directly into oil and gas, so it's a very different type of information and feel than any typical "stocks trading/investing" type. However, with commodities it seems to be helpful if not crucial to know as much as possible about that which one is trading.

>>56116587
>I consume more energy than everyone else while pointing down my nose at them claiming I consume less
die

>>56122858
>>56122911
Certainly not a stock book, but about everything after chapter 3 is it’s only little organ in the industry (10 comes back to 4 though). If you’re not investing in the majors with tickers then each step has its own smaller business that would be overseen by an operating company that hires them. Quick glance at a sample of it shows it’s a pretty decent walkthrough of those basic organs. If you’re plan is to invest on those organs individually you’d have to own a piece of those businesses in them or get patents for the tools that might be used by them. So, if it’s not a big boy corp with a ticker the real profit is in minerals. If you want something to keep an eye on long term keep your eye on how SBR is doing. Using it as a market indicator alone is vital to seeing what people think about the future of oil and gas.

>>56123376
>SBR
I might buy a little of that and add to it when it seems to find a bottom.

>>56116683
I used to work in car parts. Evs are a nightmare to source batteries for and like others are saying in this thread. You might as well get a new car.

>>56122858
Why don't you just buy bitcoin? Its mining is controlling the global energy production eventually a barrel of oil will be priced in satoshis.

>>56124005
Crypto is a scam

>>56124026
>crypto is a scam
outside btc/xmr yeah. Not sure how far you could call btc a scam when oil companies use flare gas to mine it.

>>56115464
I'm so mad at myself for selling my Chevron shares around the 2020 crash. I got them in an inheritance/gift (not much I think it was like 20-30 shares), and I looked at the history and it had been the same price more or less for a decade, and oil prices were plummeting anyway. If I buy shit dumps, if I sell, shit pumps, ever damn time

I don't see a path for the oil price to be below mid/high 100s of $ this winter.

Literally an easy way to make money.

>>56124041
what did you sell after a crash? did you fall for the "MUH OIL IS A DYING INDUSTRY" psyop?

>>56124056
>what did you sell after a crash? did you fall for the "MUH OIL IS A DYING INDUSTRY" psyop?

the worst part is I just wanted money for crypto because I thought things were about to pump. But I ended up buying a total shitcoin, it pumped eventually, but I fucked it up and made nothing, would've been better off just buying bitcoin or leaving it in chevron

They were stocks that I think I was gifted when my grandma died in 2008. I just looked at how the stock price had basically been the same since 2010 or 2011 and decided fuck it I want to invest in something that will actually go up in value. Especially after all the Trump stuff and oil deregulation, I thought we had ushered in a new era of cheap gasoline and low oil prices for the foreseeable future

I hope so much this winter is especially cold and that Russia and SA cuts their production to fuck with Biden and the West.

Burn that gas and oil baby!!!!!

>>56121926
>We have a reserve called the US and its filled with oil
>Why would gold mine need a reserve of gold?
Are you for real?

>hurr durr look at all this oil in the ground
>hurr durr who even came up with an idea to store extracted and processed materials to be available for immediate consumption

I can say for sure that you are an american

>>56124005
Because I know that traps are gay and all women were born with vaginas.

>>56116467
>electric vehicle scam
EVs are not really the fundamental scam
the scam are lithium batteries, which are liquid
a solid state battery would obliterate both the lithium battery market and the oil market
buy uranium

invictus energy bros... please find a nice oil column i really dont want to wage

Every time you buy an oil stock, the cutie cries....

>>56124638
is she balding?

>>56124670
Yes because of pollution and co2 emissions

>>56115464
I own RIG - stock has doubled in past few years.
I own XOM - Exxon Mobil - yield is fucking lower than my AMEX high yield savings account. Like WTF?
CVX - thinking about buying $50K of this as they seem to be the most aggressive major but again the yield is low and if there is a major recession then oil will go down.
OXY - Buffet owns 7% of the company so why not.
I like oil and gas right now everyone is bullish so I think i will just sit on the sidelines and watch a little longer.
Also I own a bunch of Energy Transfer Partners (ET) which is pretty good.
Fuck I love oil and gas.
Fuck the windmill faggots.

>>56115464
Yes, might be too late to buy in tough. Oil companies have 5x since 2020

>>56124686
It's actually because her head gets abnormally hot with all the big brain activity

>>56125380
Good breeder sow.

It's so strange, oil prices are already hitting covid highs in my country, yet nobody seems outraged by it this time.

You have to be stupid/naive to think that this was not all part of the US's design (imagine thinking someone can "fuck" with America by manipulating oil prices, g1 m8).
All for that easy profit. Normies have already adjusted to the higher gas/diesel/oil prices so why not squeeze them further?
Hell, I am paying $2.2 for a litre of diesel (cca $8.3/gallon) and people seem to be just fine with it. There simply is no incentive for them to have cheap oil. Nobody even wants cheap oil.

>>56124005
cryptofags really are delusional

>>56125702
>>56124077
I'd say OPEC has an incentive to keep the price between $70 and $80 since they're profitable at those prices, while US shale is still largely marginal with oil below $80. It's a retarded assertion to say OPEC wants to raise the oil price to somehow fuck with the US. The US is the fifth biggest crude oil exporter and the biggest refined product exporter in the world, they benefit from a high oil price more thanks to having high costs per boe. US shale eagerly swing produces when they see oil at $100+, and that aside demand destruction sets in when oil goes above the hundred dollar mark so there really is little incentive for OPEC to get oil prices that high for any sustained period of time. They'd just be throwing the ball to Uncle Sam's court. "Higher for longer" for crude oil is the reasonable gameplan, keeping oil at a sustained, elevated price maybe around $80. (Though I won't turn my nose to all the profits I will share in if oil goes above $100!)
>>56125380
I won some XOM as well but all of my other o&g stocks are Canadian. Most of the growth in North American oil and gas production is going to come from the WCSB for the next few decades. Permian will maybe grow a little bit until the end of the decade with the bigger companies there increasing production, not much production growth coming out the US beside that. Margins and decline rates are better in the WCSB on average too. Canada is also the place to be if you like natgas, which I love considering all the LNG exports from NA are ramping up which will finally pull natgas prices up from the post-shale boom slump as well.
>>56125459
you mean gasoline and diesel prices? Over here they're nowhere near as high as they were during the Russia-Ukraine mess last year but yeah still expensive. It seems people are getting used to high energy prices. I think this will be a theme going forward at least until the end of the decade.

>>56126156
So the best oil has a break even of 3 dollar a barrel and the worst oil of 24 dollar per barrel?
While the average break even price of a company like shell is $38?
Or am I misinterpreting that chart

>>56126156
>>56126171
I should clarify that the Permian is also a fantastic place to be for natgas and oil exposure, if it seemed like I was trying to say otherwise. Canada is just where the growth will be after the Permian is done growing.

>>56126171
that chart shows natgas breakeven costs of new wells in US$ per million British thermal units. Not oil. You'll notice the Permian, Eagle Ford and WCSB have some of the lowest breakevens while places like Marcellus are more marginal.

People are taking profits on oil companies after a bullish month and preparing to swing back into tech after it went down for 2 months. Oil etfs are about to go down. Oil per barrel might go up but the short term etf outlook is bad.

>>56126197
yeah I think there will be a pullback in oil. It's run up quite a lot rather quickly. And I'm expecting oil to average around $80 at least until year end but that's just my opinion

>>56126188
oh got it
I was already wondering why it was so low because oil is a lot higher

>>56126208
those new well costs are likely going to keep trending up, the FD&A will keep increasing more as finding new hydrocarbons becomes more difficult.

>>56125702
>imagine thinking someone can "fuck" with America
Imagine thinking the world is America and that oil prices dont affect anyone else. Europe is clearly more affected by oil prices and guess what, its the USAs largest trade counterparty.

>>56126244
as those LNG shipments increase, the US will keep growing as EU's biggest counterparty too. Uncle Sam is going to profit handsomely off of Europeans. And the leafs will too

>>56126238
I dont think the big oil companies are too happy to be in the US anymore with biden and climate activists. And shale oil isnt necessarily the most carbon neutral oil either.
So there will be more and more acquisitions in the shale world as they try to get more synergies
Guyuna, gulf of mexico, venezuela, namibia are all deep water oil with a lot less climate activists

>>56126268
problem being there aren't that many great places to be for deepwater. Guyana has some fantastic offshore growth lined up, and maaaaybe Suriname has some too. Venezuela will keep doing well I think but I don't think international oil majors have any edge to enter there. Same goes for Brazil, that's Petrobras' stomping ground (excellent place to be for offshore as well actually). Namibia looks good but it's not Guyana, at least not yet. Finding and developing these kinds of prolific offshore deepwater plays takes a lot of time, money and luck, and tough luck to the majors who don't already have one foot through the door in one of the current deepwater plays. Exxon and Petrobras have it made well until at least the middle of the next decade thanks to having such sizable positions in the right places right now. Some of the other majors will have to make do with what they can get.

>>56126244
>Imagine thinking the world is America
It literally is though. America gets to decide pretty much everything and everyone else has to shut up.
>>56126238
Inflation/"high" rates are also eating away at commodity companies. They are being saved only by the grace of manipulation of oil prices.
Had we been reasonable and not restrained this insanely abundant supply like idiots, oil would be trading at far lower prices. Fuckin hate this world.
If the meme of "finding new hydrocarbons becomes more difficult" and "higher for longer" becomes true, commodity companies will find themselves in quite the tricky position. But then, they will probably manipulate the market even more to jack up prices so we get to pay $10/gallon for gas, hooray. The future sure looks bright.
Still, the demand destruction meme has been debunked, China is fine, the US is doing better than ever. I am honestly not sure oil is ever gonna go below 80 again.
Fugg I hate commodities. So unpredictable and so easily subject to manipulation. Stocks are easy compared to this crap

>>56115464
>inb4 oil price suddenly goes down and retards on /biz/ act all their surprised their "fundamentals analysis" was wrong once again

>>56126268
>>56126306
I should maybe point out that Alaska may actually be a place for future growth for US o&g production though. There is a large national petroleum reserve there that's been tested many decades ago and is known to have held a lot of oil in place, at least back then. It's the single biggest public protected land in the USA. Today there's not that much going on there (Alaska produces <500k bopd these days) but the private company Hilcorp has been buying up Chevron's interests in Alaska hand over fist over the years. ConocoPhilips is the largest owner of explorations leases in Alaska, and they're the biggest crude oil producer in Alaska. Alaska is home to some of the largest oilfields in the US, and they are largely underexplored and underdeveloped compared to the US Midwest.

https://www.akrdc.org/oil-and-gas
>pic related

also here's an excellent presentation on the topic from my favorite pajeet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EftjFGw9BGA&ab_channel=ShubhamGarg
>>56126343
>I am honestly not sure oil is ever gonna go below 80 again.
it will. Commodities are fickle, they run up like crazy at times and get fucked other times. It's a truly cyclical market, and now we're in a bull cycle. We know this and there's not much we can do to avoid using energy ourselves, so the second best thing to do is take advantage of the market movements and turn a profit while we can.

>>56120476
>doing well despite
Anon state owned oil and gas companies never do well. There is too much corruption and political control over shareholders. Petrobras just agreed to reduce dividend payouts becasue of lula in the government. You buy in and some politician cuts your growth to win an election. It's dumb.

>>56126693
I wouldn't say 'never' but they certainly are susceptible to unique political risks. Is PBR's low multiple reflecting these risks? Yes, and I'd say it's maybe even overestimating them. It's trading at like 4-5 times lower FCF multiple than XOM if memory serves me right

>>56126827
Wouldn't surprise me if that lowers their value already. No one wants to buy into a company and get trapped underwater for political reasons. Lot of western companies took a loss on their Russian invested projects because of sanctions. Far easier to just avoid all that and stick to projects you know are safer. Western owned or certain nations that are stable enough for 10 year projects. Not the least that western private oil companies have always operated at higher levels than state owned ones. Good example is gulf of Mexico. Private companies out produce thr Mexican state company despite having less reserves because Mexico is so incompetent at managing the state petroleum company. That's why I think Mexico was having a fight over finally releasing gulf reserves to American company bidding. To actually utilize it finally instead of wasting money on hiring internally.

>>56126845
You can say that again. Peace of mind over tail risks like nationalization is getting more important to everybody now that globalism is dying and resource nationalism or sanctions or "solidarity taxes" or what have you seem to be getting popular.

>>56126353
Same as it ever was

>>56115464
Did Montana just declare a Ban on new Fossil Fuel plants?

>>56126156
Saudi Arabia needs oil at $80-$85 a barrel to balance budget:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-economy-imf-idUSKCN1Q01N0

And now they are building NEOM and the Red Sea Project, they need oil at even higher prices. They also want to fuck Biden with high pump prices and high inflation

Russia obviously need high prices for it's war and to fuck europe

Can I dream of oil at 200$ this winter, bros?

>>56127516
ahaha what the fuck

https://jacobin.com/2023/09/held-v-montana-court-constitutional-right-climate-change-youth-generations-environment/
>A Montana Judge Just Ruled the State’s Constitution Bans New Fossil Fuel Plants

>The wording in Article IX, Section 1, of Montana’s constitution couldn’t be clearer: “The state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations.” Accordingly, in April, a district court judge in Yellowstone County voided a permit for a natural gas–fired power plant under construction there. Over its lifetime, it would have released an estimated twenty-three million tons of planet-roasting carbon dioxide, and that, ruled the judge, was incompatible with a “clean and healthful environment” in Montana or, for that matter, anywhere else.

>In her ruling, Judge Kathy Seeley wrote, “Montana’s climate, environment, and natural resources are unconstitutionally degraded and depleted due to the current atmospheric concentration of [greenhouse gases] and climate change.” She added that “every additional ton of greenhouse gas emissions exacerbates Plaintiffs’ injuries and risks locking in irreversible climate injuries.” The state, she made it abundantly clear, is obligated to correct such a situation.

>The plaintiffs’ case was overwhelmingly persuasive, with extensive testimony from climate and pediatric health experts showing that people younger than twenty-five were going to be especially vulnerable to the many impacts climate change is going to have on physical and psychological health. In her ruling, Seeley summarized some of the damages to which the plaintiffs had testified.

this is fucking stupid, natural gas plants are clean and are in no way causing serious danger to the environment.
also
>CLIMATE INJURIES

>>56127583
>Can I dream of oil at 200$ this winter
Even at peak inflation and peak of "war" FUD didn't oil give more than 120. We shall see. I for one believe oil will now swing between 90 and 110 but no way in hell will it go above 120 again. Even with the US industry making a massive comeback this and next year, I doubt it

>>56127583
>>56127781
Oil was $145 in 2008. Inflation Adjusted that's ~$200 in 2023. It certainly has the capacity, but we're nowhere near peak demand/supply imbalance. Maybe not this winter, but I within a couple years triple digits will be common. We'll see $200 before end of decade easily, but not anytime soon. Supply-side is bullish, as we just emptied half the SPR for +5% global production for 1yr, and we've recovered 50% from that drop in the span of 6 months. That card can only be played once more to empty it out completely. Demand side is neutral-bearish imo because we haven't worked through the refinancing shock of interest rates nor seen the effects of total lockdown stimulus ending (student loans still on pause for another year).

I think we get more volatility, but broadly climb upwards. Maybe we revisit $60 if we get a macro double-bottom on wti chart with the 2024 demand shock, but the inventory problem will get more acute until it happens.

Also we have to account for inflation from deficit financing. Huge tailwind of govs look to inflate their debts away.

>>56127583
>>56127781
>>56128180
if we are to look at inflation and adjust based on that I think it would be more prudent to also account for the effects of other areas of inflation that affect demand as well. I don't seriously think oil has any real capacity to go above $200 barring some crazy supply-demand shakeup like what happened to European natgas. And more importantly I don't think oil can stay above $120 for a sustained time. Even oil staying at above $100 would be stretching it desu. A lot of production comes online to meet demand when oil goes up, and demand destruction actually comes on if energy prices go high enough. At the peak of the European energy crisis last year, entire factories simply closed doors in Europe. Especially the chemical and fertilizer industry was affected and many an ammonia plant was shut down in Europe. Individuals also cut down on energy costs. People reduced indoor temperatures, used air conditioning less, cut down on expenses wherever they could. Even my condominium's board decided to close down our public sauna to save on energy costs. If oil were to go to some kind of ridiculous price like $200, refineries would cut back on demand a lot no doubt. Chemicals and plastics would cut down on production or maybe even close shop.

>>56128309
also DCET costs have gone down a lot since 2008, though costs have started trending up since 2020.

Lots of doubt about the current oil run. Therefore it must continue.

>>56128599
are you sure?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/An-Apparently-Unstoppable-Oil-Price-Rally.html

>>56128609
I keep reading comments about people expecting a pullback from here. Seems a lot of people are scarred from the SPR releases.

I’m not selling nrgu yet.

>>56128638
I'm not selling anything either, but I'm not holding my breath for oil going higher either. I'm content holding onto my stocks through the volatility. After all, the best companies are raking in massive cash flow even if oil goes down. Anyways for now it seems the Chinese recovery narrative is in full swing.

PBR made me rich. Really comfy knowing every year I'll be receiving 6 figs income off reliable divvies.

>>56127593
It's hard to believe they can get away with ridiculous pile of lies and deceit, it's even written like it is from the voice of a spiteful vindictive ignorant female child.
And this passes for a legal argument

Green malthusians are in a death cult, they want to kill themselves and everyone else. They will lie, obfuscate and deceive. They are androgynous söyboys that self flagellate for attention. I cannot think of anything more disgraceful. Imagine the entire lineage of people that created you, mothers, fathers, grand parents etc. And all you can do is to spit them in face.

>>56128753
>Crew Energy
good pick, I held that at one point too but not right now.

>>56121926
You should sleep or something and come back to this comment with a fresh brain or wtv this is retarded guy.

>>56128309
I understand your sentiment and I think the idea that $200/bbl is ridiculous depends on the time frame. My outlook is on a decade of inflation and general mismanagement by western governments. I'm sure when oil was $35/bbl that $90/bbl seemed like a lot as well, now it seems reasonable within range.

One of the effects of the SPR release was suppressing price signaling for more rigs to come online and fill in the supply gap, all the SPR release did was burn through excess oil savings and keep the price suppressed. That's why I agree it will be volatile; we'll probably get wild swings as the economy goes through deglobalization pains and politicians taking short-term solutions over long-term sustainability because they only focus on the next election cycle over creating organic deflationary growth.

One of Europe's responses to the energy shock was energy "price caps" where they deficit spent to cover excess prices for the utilities. That excess money works its way into the economy as stimulus to support broader inflation and long term price growth.

The way I think it'll go is
>Oil spikes
>Economic pain
>stimulus & price suppression
>inflation
>repeat

Near term $200/bbl is crazy, but long term I think it's in the cards after some volatile climbing. Oil was only $3.50 in the start of the 70s and $35 by the end; $12 start of 00s and $145 until the GFC. Perhaps the demographic situation cuts 2020s run short as economies have to re-align to aged out and shrinking populations, but I think it'll be met with a lot of monetary debasement to keep to the social safety nets "solvent".

>>56128488
Related but oil has been on a broad downtrend when priced in gold, which points to greater efficiency in usage and better extraction methods as you mention with DCET costs. I think we can have a scenario where oil goes down in "real" terms compared to gold, but up in nominal terms because the monetary debasement is just that bad.

>>56129687
Oh yes, given enough time it becomes increasingly likely that oil goes up to yet-unthinkable prices. I would even say it's likely in the next five to ten years. I was mostly speaking in a shorter time frame, based on the information we have at hand right now. The economy will look much different than now even a year or two from now. Governments and populations both tend to favor short term solutions to long term ones, so market disruptions and volatility will likely continue to be a theme in the world economy until some of the broader global economic issues have resolved themselves. We're all in this soup ultimately thanks to irresponsible handling of currencies, markets and leverage.

>>56116817
basadoil

Your predictions are worth bag of shoite, just like you could not see oil going to negative you won't see the other side of spectrum.

Time will tell.

>>56131900
Exactly, if cushing gets run dry then we get the opposite scenario of the negative price day. Prices explode upwards until they halt trading

Big week of central banks trying to jawbone down the price of oil coming up.

>>56124068
Thise stocks would have been paying a dividend throughout those years, although it was a subpar decade for oil. 20-30 chevron stocks would cost like one months pay at a decent job so you can make that back pretty quickly.

Have about $315k in oil and gas securities. Was nearly a million a little over a year ago but I bought a house. My biggest concern right now is the inflationary pressures created if the WTI/Brent price continues to rise leading to rate hikes or worse a recession negating any of the price gains. Also, the SPR is not an infinite resource and will have to be refilled at some point.

>>56121683
>Yeah bro the battery on this car that is twice as expensive loses 10% capacity after a few years meaning smaller range and slower charging and this decline is exponential, but just don't drive it too much

>>56115464
The war in Ukraine will end soon. Probably before the 2024 spring thaw. This winter will be used to draw new borders for a negotiated settlement. Russia will be allowed back onto the world market because The Uniparty Establishment is freaked out that Trump could win in 2024 and they need low gas prices.

>>56134369
the sanctions will stay. Globalism is over.

>>56115464
>TOP SIGNAL: THE THREAD

>>56134369
I think it will be a very long time before uncle Vlad has enough goodboy points to get sanctions lifted.

>>56130109
If you're still lurking this thread, what is your opinion on the crack spread options strat for oil?

>>56134459
>>56134540
The question is, who are they more afraid of? Trump or Putin?

hmmm, I'm bullish on oil and I have shares in oil companies but any time something starts getting dedicated threads on /biz that's insanely bearish and it means the smart thing to do is sell.

>>56134794
Yes I'm sure Mohammed Bin Salman will boost production after seeing this thread.

>not selling your product to meet demand
is this model sustainable?

>>56135009
From about 2014 to 2021 it was not, but it's become clear that US shale cannot increase output like they used to due to a combination of increased capex costs, declining well performance and a series of bad government decisions. As a result the Saudi's are emboldened and it's 2006 again.

>>56134369
>The war in Ukraine will end soon. Probably before the 2024 spring thaw.
The war will be a long grinning war, it will take some years

>>56134465

>>56120476
Just buy Bitcoin, gazprom is mining it and blackcock is buying it
It's obviously the future

>>56134231
Won't be driving at all when the SPR goes empty and all the pipelines are shut down.

>>56115464
God it felt good NOT being on the rig crew when I was in the patch and instead being 3rd party service sitting on my ass 90% of the time.

>>56136208
based slacker

>>56135824
Crytpo is a scam, oil is life

>>56136730
My /CL options doin a lil sum

>>56134369