/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56084934
yeah, this twitter screenshot shitpost problem is really killing /biz/.

scary graph is scary. ooooo scary.

When the election was rigged 3 years ago I predicted that it is going to be the most pyhric victory in human history, a victory that is going to end an empire

>>56084934
>Euro
It was over before it began, OP.

>>56084951
that prediction was legendary bro ive been telling my family about you ever since

>>56084974
No you didn't. And you can stick your bot mocking up your digital ass. I know I'm right. Either a legendary 1929 crash kills it or the removal of every stop gap and the start of Weimar on steroids

tower of babel collapsing ser
please send dogecoin village is starving ser

>>56084934
explain why loans to households going down means recession

>>56086752
scary line goes down
collapse in two more weeks

>>56084934
Explain this graphic

>>56086752
There is a liquidity crisis. Lack of lending means businesses that need loans to stay open won't get then, people get laid off, no money means no food, people lined up at food banks, no food there either, violence and revolution, 1488.

>>56084934
is 2020 the covid crash or what?

>>56084934
They don't need loans because they have a huge amount of savings from pandemic stimulus

>>56086752
Because people constantly take on debt so they can keep up their CONSOOM lifestyle. Without lending, they stop spending money on useless shit. People who sell useless shit start losing sales, which leads to layoffs, which means more people have less to spend, which means further cut backs in consumer spending, which means useless, but slightly more useful than the first wave of businesses, start to get affected, and so on and so on. It reaches a point where panic starts to set in and people stop spending money all together unless it’s absolutely necessary, even people who are well off because they’re uncomfortable and uncertain with the future.

>>56084943
I concur.
>>56084934
You need to lurk more

>>56084934
We? I've been buying silver and gold since 2016.

your own chart shows the recession already happened you absolute fucking brainlet

>just 2 more weeks until the collapse!
do people ever get tired of doing this?

^stop baiting faggot

>>56090114
looking forward until the date is moved again. in 5 years you'll be talking about how a collapse of society is totally around the corner for real this time

>>56089558
>Because people constantly take on debt so they can keep up their CONSOOM lifestyle
Not in Europe. At least not to my knowledge

>>56084934
In the grand scheme, yes; super fucked. But whether that happens now or later is anyone's guess. The Jews are running out of tricks to keep the market afloat. Fiat goes one way, hyperinflation.

>>56084934
I am seeing a lot of spooky charts lately.
Something has to break eventually, right?
Are they just delaying the inevitable, it's obviously gonna lead to a world war.

>>56090119
You don't have to believe the world is ending to think these bad trends will cause economic downturn.

>>56090536
Don't be scared. Accumulate cash. Buy at the bottom. Huge opportunities here. Just be smart. Think about what you'd do in 2006 if you knew what was about to happen.

>>56086809
Look at RRP for the past year vs what it did prior to the 08 crash. The last 1.5T or so left of collateral holding the shit together getting sipped away. It's idiosyncratic risk.

>>56090554
>Think about what you'd do in 2006 if you knew what was about to happen.
I would beat zuckerfuck to death.

>>56089620
you need to lurk less, oldfag

>>56084943
/thread

>>56090105
>>56090119
>There have never been any happenings in human history!

>>56089476
Lol. Those savings are gone as of now.
Credit card debt over a trillion in the US.
Yield curve extremely inverted.
Money supply going down for first time since great depression.

I know you guys love to post
>2 more weeks
>nothing ever happens
But we are going to get a severe recession starting in the mext few months.
This is not doomposting or trying to drum up drama out of boredom or whatever.
It’s a simple goddam conclusion to reach by looking at any of a million different economic indicators which are all pointing at the same thing.
Of course the media jews would have you believe in muh soft landing, with their only piece of evidence being the low unemployment rate.
Unemployment will be the second last show to drop, then real estate will finally hit a wall when all the freshly unemployed people become forced sellers.
So go ahead and hand-wave this away and assume line go up forever, not my problem.
I’m simply stating a fact: severe global deflationary recession soon.

>>56093375
>we are going to
We already are.
Your post is retarded because there will be no cataclysmic event like in your fantasy, it's a slow decay like a boiling frog, the impoverishment is here, it's happening right now, month by month, year by year.

>>56093375
>But we are going to get a severe recession starting in the mext few months.
You guys always predict that the crash is coming any day now, yet it consistently fails to materialize.

>>56093445
I never said there would be a “cataclysmic event” you nonce.
Yes, we are grinding into ever-increasing poverty, and have been for some time.
That trend will likely continue for the rest of our lifetimes as our economies are overwhelmed by unproductive drags on our economy in the form of hoardes of useless 3rd world welfare recipients.

But there will be an upcoming period of severe contraction, where unemployment rises dramatically, likely another wave of the bank failure shit, and a major drop in asset values.
>inb4 the fed will prop up stonks, they always bail everyone out etc.
Yes but there is always a period of real calamity before they step in with their QE / stimulus / money printing freakout.

So no, my post was not retarded.
Gradual decline, but with a period of dramatic decline soon.

>>56093465
>i got bored of waiting because I am a zero attention span zoomer therefore it will simply never occur.
Average time between inversion of yield curve and onset of recession is approx. 15 months.
current inversion began last October.
>you guys always…
I dunno who “us guys” are.
Also I never said the word “crash”. I dunno if there will be a dramatic crash or not during this time.
Again simply stating a fact - all relevant data points to a deflationary recession starting sometime around the end of this year.
If we somehow do not get one, THAT will be the real happening. Because it will mean that several decades of economic patterns were somehow rendered null and void.
The yield curve uninverting and going back to normal without a period of dramatic economic contraction - THAT would be a huge anomaly and a crazy turn of events. The recession is just the normal expected outcome at this point.

>>56089558
Pretty much.
As someone who has been selling useless shit(retro games) on Ebay in EU zone for years, my sales died this summer. I mean flat out dead. Was fine until about mid spring.

I have however been getting so many views on my items compared to usual. People are fucking BROKE but do window shopping still

>>56093518
>Also I never said the word “crash”. I dunno if there will be a dramatic crash or not during this time.
You wrote:
>severe global deflationary recession soon
This is heavily implying a hard crash, like the Great Depression. Any amount of significant deflation will implode the global economy.
>The yield curve uninverting and going back to normal without a period of dramatic economic contraction - THAT would be a huge anomaly and a crazy turn of events
It has done that several times in the last 3 years! Nothing really happened.

>>56086809
There is no liquidity crisis because the all the large corporations and some people have the liquidity. They'll buy anything that crashes because to them, current prices are still too cheap. You are dreaming for a cheapie so you're fearmongering in the hopes of buying real estate at 2010s prices.

>>56089558
Loaning in Europe is mostly for housing, not consooming

>>56093375

>>56089558
this is about europe, cosoooomer credit is still limited and gibs are ubiquitous so no need to buy food on loans
this is almost all housing and that was ridiculously overvalued
not sure how paying a fortune for a 50 year old boomer bag is a benefit for the economy and also not sure how not overpaying for them is somehow bad for the economy
let the housing market freeze over, its long overdue

>>56090554
Will start to buy from Jan and SUPRA will be no.1 at their TGE. Oracles will be a strong narrative.

>>56094192
this, but does house market going down mean recession?

>>56093375
>Money supply going down for first time since great depression
because they printed too much, it's going down compared to 2020

>>56093518
>Average time between inversion of yield curve and onset of recession is approx. 15 months.
it is 6 months

>>56093486
>Yes but there is always a period of real calamity
we had it dumbar, the war, last year

>>56090105
Nearly every financial chart is exploring areas never seen before or not seen since immediately before the 2008 crisis. Isnt it worth discussing these things on a board called Business and Finance?

>>56095571
there might be if it means builders stop working and that would mean many lay offs
but europes housing market is bidding ancient houses to the moon, stopping that doesnt actually curtail any real economic activity
it just changes spending power from boomers wasting it on garbage to young people trying to build a future

>>56090536
We're already in a world war anon, breaking the dollar is one of the attack vectors that we're more vulnerable to.

>>56084934
How many times do we have to repeat it: Capitalism is over.
Now there is still money to make in the collapse. But still. You can't expect Capitalism to last 50 more years.

>>56086809
I'm happy to be causing this. I wrote a Python script to automatically buy Treasuries the moment they mature and become cash. I let my cash sit in the bank for at most 3 days, before it is swept back into cold hard securities.

The banking business model is obsolete. Because they made cash obsolete. Become your "own" bank. Although I'm sure there is some bank, somewhere, in the fine print who is loaning out the treasuries that I own as some derivative. Maybe BNY Mellon or some other "vault designed for securities". Truly if you don't hold it you don't own it, but I'm not based enough to go as far as paper certificates under the mattress (yet).

>>56099696
what do you faggots mean by "becoming your bank". putting hard cash in fixed income products and living on 0% interest credit cards, or credit lines that have a rate that is lower than your bond/treasury/deposit yield?

that's what I am doing and many mature people are doing but it's hardly a financial secret that will make you rich, more like it will save you shavings at the end of the year

>>56084943
Not like you’re going to point out any interesting macroeconomic data except !!GME SQUEEZE SOON?!! AVAX WEN MOON??

>>56090554
>Think about what you'd do in 2006 if you knew what was about to happen.
You're obviously talking finance, but this hit me hard.

>>56099637
Should I kill myself because of this information?

>>56099696
Do they even issue certs anymore?

>>56099856
he's saying he's buying US treasuries instead of keeping excess savings in a bank
short term (6 month - 1 year) US treasuries are paying more than 5% annual interest
IE you put in $1,950 in six month treasuries, then you get $2,000 when it matures.
Decently smart, but I also hedge against hyperinflation with boomer rocks.

>>56100193
how is buying t-bills "being your own bank". it's one of those catchphrases that you see when boomers want to advertise you some sort of financial help course on youtube or tiktok.
it's just called buying bonds and loads of people do it, in fact more should instead of betting ALL their money on shitcoins

>>56099637
>there is still money to make in the collapse
where?

>>56093445
This. Slow descent into slavery on a civilizational level. Economic and political subservience are already here basically. They took the 2020 election and have made us slaves with no political or economic power.

>>56093952
Kinda this. The average American consumer is done for but in a way no longer matters. The billionaire class, their lackeys in the top 1/2% and the corporate leviathans are the drivers of consumption.

>>56096183
Nah I think we should have another 3 Chainlink threads

>>56086809
we all wish this were true
and that's the reason why it isn't

>>56089476


Covid-19 has disrupted a lot these past three years, including economic activity and household savings. The savings ratio in the eurozone averaged 12.6% of disposable income from 2015 to 2019. This changed with the onset of the pandemic, soaring to a historic high of 25.4% in Q2 2021. During the Covid lockdowns people were able to buy durable consumer goods, but couldn’t go to restaurants, or on holiday, or even to the hairdresser in most countries. Despite the Covid slump in economic output, most incomes remained intact though... There was also no significant increase in unemployment rates in the eurozone, as governments raced to the rescue with generous furlough schemes.

With spending down and incomes sound, savings multiplied. According to calculations by the European Central Bank[1] (ECB), so-called excess savings swelled to 11.3% of gross disposable income between Q1 2020 and Q4 2022. Particularly at the beginning of the economic recovery, this was central to the strengthening of private consumption.

Since then, however, the picture has become more nuanced. Households have invested their excess savings in housing, financial assets such as stocks and bonds, and have paid off loans. Meanwhile liquid assets such as cash or bank deposits, which are also readily available for consumption, have gradually been reduced – from a peak of 3.7% of disposable income in Q1 2021 to just 0.6% in Q4 2022. This means that there are hardly any spare savings or assets left that are readily available to be turned into spending money.

The distribution of excess savings is also important. Calculations by the ECB show that wealthy households are most likely to still have surplus savings in the bank. While the wealthiest 10% of the population held less than half of total excess savings in Q1 2020, this figure had risen to almost two-thirds by Q4 2022.

>>56084943
Janny positions were open. Did you apply?

>>56093445
>cataclysmic event
Russian retards will not survive as a country , this will be the swan of the swans in 2024, currently they are banned from entering Europe in their cars XD

>>56099637
Earth is flat too XD

https://mises.org/library/myth-failure-capitalism

>>56099696
>>56099856
>all securities have been transformed into collateral
>you do not get priority claim on those securities in the event of your custodian going bankrupt
>the great taking
>nothin personnel goy

>>56084934
>Euroarea
not my problem. Try importing more refugees.