/biz/ - Business & Finance

Short china

>>56028480
Speculating on microchips is one of the worst "investments" you can make. TMSC has a lot of business overseas, and in the case of an invasion and the price of microchips soar, TSMC could become more valuable. There is also the element of "strategic resource", Europe, the US, all are subsidizing chip manufacturing and indirectly building/expanding domestic production. There will be a massive oversupply of chips because it's not governed by free market mechanisms, but are governed by governments insisting there should be produced X amount domesticly, the subsidies also mean they will sell chips bellow production cost.

The best way to profit from an invasion of Taiwan is to bet against the dollar peg, it's a fairly popular trade (a popular loosing trade thus far) so you can find short-dollar-peg-ETF and other options like that.
Options that are considerably outside the trading band of the pegs are very cheap, practically free, easy x30 if you can predict a war +/- a couple of months.

>>56028629
>TSMC could become more valuable
Is there not a risk of a bomb landing on the factory?
>short-dollar-peg-etf
That could be a good one. Hard to gauge when this is going to go down but it will.

>>56028480
It will never happen. If China invades Taiwan, the US would cease to buy Chinese crap. It would be economic suicide for China.

>>56028480
What does China benefit from invading Taiwan? The only winning move is not to play. And no China is not desperate shithole like Russia but its getting richer and more powerful. every day thanks to international trade.

>>56028480
>Invade Taiwan
>International trade and investment implodes
>Whatever companies can't immediately move out of you do so at an even faster pace
>Lose no less than several hundred thousand young men in the best-case scenarios who at peak breading age, a critical resource you need to prevent your birth rates from imploding more than they already are
If China actually does this it would be quite possibly their most retarded move in history.

>>56028685
>>56028698
>>56028723
Chinese leaders aren't like our own.
You could make the same argument about other Chinese actions with Hong Kong and in XinJiang.

>>56028480
I'm in Taiwan right now. China, please don't invade, I just fucked a Taiwanese girl and now I want to make her mine.

>>56028952
I hope for their own sake they don't do it. Unlike a lot of anons here I actually hope people in the world get a better life and that'd basically break China's economy to the point of no return.

>>56028952
>You could make the same argument about other Chinese actions with Hong Kong and in XinJiang.
nope

I don't know but their porn industry is amazing.
check out madou media. great pornography.
and when a country starts producing solid quality pornography, their economy is BOOMING.
same thing happened in the US.
so basically you should just LONG the whole Taiwanese economy.

The entire US support for Ukraine is just a signal to China not to invade Taiwan.

Republitards never understood this. We didn't actually care about Ukraine. We just need our microchips until we've built new fabs in the US

short the taiwan dollar

>>56028480

See the date.

>>56029340
>redditor
>complete dumbass on geopolitics
checks out.

>>56028698
China wants direct access to the Pacific Ocean. Part of the reason America is so strong is that we have access to both the Atlantic and pacific. China has neither and has to go through the waters of US allied countries to ship anything.


I think china should get it just by invading Russia to the north, but they wouldn’t do that while Putin is alive

>>56029560
Explain how to me how this would relate to the current situation like I'm an idiot.

>>56028480
China has been slowly buying Taiwanese politicians over the last couple decades. There is no need to talk about invasion for any other reason but market manipulation.

This time it is different. Because Japan did not try to invade any island. It willingly surrendered Okinawa to USA and let USG build a military base there and the let the locals be raped by US military. Also the Chinese are just disgusting. They do not have cool anime, movies or porn, and the Japanese are honorary Aryans unlike the Chinese. So USG will win the war with China.

Therefore you need to profit by investing in Taiwanese companies in US mainland like TSMC subsidiaries.

>>56028629
>There will be a massive oversupply of chips because it's not governed by free market mechanisms, but are governed by governments insisting there should be produced X amount domesticly, the subsidies also mean they will sell chips bellow production cost.
Could cheaper electronics lead to the videogame industry having a renaissance?

>>56028480
Buy Intel, short TSMC.
There's a reason Buffett sold TSMC.

>>56030110
Gotcha.

>>56030096
THe videogame industry doesn't lack electronics, it lacks creativity.

>>56030053
>USG
Dafuq is USG? United States of Gweilos?

>>56028642
>Is there not a risk of a bomb landing on the factory?
why do you think China wants to invade in the first place

>>56029340
About that.

>>56028685

Yes, just like Russia would collapse under Iran-like sanctions. Oh wait, it didn't. And China is Russia x 10.

>>56030790
>less than 1000 participants for each poll
The only thing that makes it remotely credible is the fact that Lithuania answered as they did.

>>56028480
i think intel are positioning themselves for this and investing in a ton of new factories in the US and Europe probably on advice/support from western governments
im accumulating, i'd just keep an eye on how much US treasuries china are holding, they won't make any move until they are done selling. they started selling them off in 2020 or something iirc

>>56028698
98% of the world's supply of sub 9nm chips, necessary for AI, are produced in taiwan

>>56033488
This is a resource more powerful than oil in the 19th and 20th century. Concentrated in one island off the shore of China.

TMSC is already rigged to blow incase of invasion. most high up positions have already been poached.

>>56028480
XAR ITA

>>56028980
are they cute ? fidelity ? tell us more anon on this investment

>>56030268
NO! it lack diversity

>>56028480
O that's why intel stock is soaring. Short AMD OP they outsource to Taiwan.Intel have plants in the EU and US.Short Chinese stocks (Chinas economy is imploding anyway)

>>56028685
You may have missed it but in the last two qeeks it turned out China never had an economy anyway.

>>56033620
No. A large part of Intel's market is in China. Nobody gets out unscathed in the case of war. Would be a good recovery play after it starts though.

>>56028480
probably INTC

>>56033620
intel at $36 (up 10% in the last days) is probably a solid pick considering nvidia at $485 even without taiwan

>>56028480
>china makes it’s own chips
>china hasn’t invade a country in thousands of years
>china has no reason to invade Taiwan
>>retards: china is going to invade

Stop arming taiwan warmongers

Invest in female refugees welcome here signs

>>56033868
China literally invaded Vietnam in the 70s

china is going to buy taiwan in exchange for the US debt they hold. archives will remember me

>>56028629
>TSMC becoming more valuable
If it gets taken over by China what guarantee is there that China will honor the shareholder's ownership? They could just say, "fuck that" and take ownership of the assets.

We would take heavy losses in Taiwan. The U.S military completely blows the Chinese out of the water but we would be fighting in their backyard, pyrrhic victory is assured and so is the end of the republic.

>>56028480
You realise the simulation won't let itself end, right? Why do you think LK-99 popped up out of nowhere? It's so everyone has an alternative material to produce chips. Taiwan won't be the producer of chips anymore and we have the imminent threat of nuclear war to thank for the technological boost

>>56034613
And the Viets are still horny about cutting pieces out of china.

>>56028723
you send men to die because all it needs are women

>>56028480
China won't do shit.

>>56034944
>The U.S military completely blows the Chinese out of the water but we would be fighting in their backyard, pyrrhic victory is assured and so is the end of the republic.
How'd Iraq and Afghanistan go again?

And that's what... tens of thousands of goat herders with aks versus a billion cheynese with nukes

>>56036401
That wasn't war, that was pussy footing around trying not to kill civilians and keep the locals sympathetic.
I say this as an anti war leftist

>>56028723
>>Lose no less than several hundred thousand young men in the best-case scenarios who at peak breading age, a critical resource you need to prevent your birth rates from imploding more than they already are
china has a surplus of 30 million men

>>56028685
China would stop buying usa debt and collapse the usa

>>56028480
its called make your own

>>56030911
Russia is a bigger shithole than China. But they are energy/food independent, China is NEITHER.

>>56030911
russia produces it's own food and energy, china doesn't. you put the same sanctions that Russia has on china and they're fucked

>>56034694
>>56036754
China only owns about $850 billion out of the total of $32.6 trillion. That's only about 2.6% of total debt, even at its peak China only owned about 9% of US debt. The US has always owed the vast majority of its debt to itself and that ratio's only increased in recent years, there was never a point where China had significant sway over the US through debt ownership and that's a really outdated meme.

>>56028480
Buy gold or anything that requires cutting edge microchips

>>56028480
It’ll happen before the next presidential election.

>>56030096
taking away computers from normies will

>>56030790
attend rally
>no
killer
>rather agree
what words
>controlled jewish puppet
responsibility
>everyone is responsible
attitude
>rather negative

>>56033500
An island that was a savage, feudal shithole until 1950. My ancestors didn’t work their asses off for our “leaders” to give the common good that is technology and science to some fucking monkeys for jewish profit

>>56033868
>has no clue about Chinese culture and history
you’re an idiot and your opinion is false. Refrain from posting or face death for crimes against the truth

>>56037335
>us owed majority of debt to itself
>take 30 trillion $ debt
>pay interests on that

>>56037720
Not saying that the total debt isn't a problem, just pointing out that the myth of China owning a enough for it to effect US policymaking is a long-outdated myth that I remember being most popular in the early 2010s, sometimes even being equated to China owning a majority of US debt. This was never the case and seeing people still claim this in the 2020s is tiresome.

>>56037739
They do owe that money to jews though

>>56031951
what is it so hard to believe germans and french are so pretentious and assblasted irrationally and unfairly hate americans?
it's comical.
they hate americans for no reason at all, so much, that they favor a war criminal.

>>56037307
China can import from the rest of the world and move to produce their own.

>>56028480
Invest in Taiwan salvage or recycling companies. They will make billions removing the hundreds of sunken Chinese ships

>>56028685
>the US would cease to buy Chinese crap
HHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH OKAY LOL

>>56034944
> The U.S military completely blows the Chinese out of the water
You're delusional and out of touch. US is already outclassed in Tawain theater and power disparity widens significantly every year. Even without invasion, China could siege Tawain into surrender.

>>56029117
Taiwanese foot fetish content is the best in the world