/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56022163
crab wins again

>>56022163
stagflation

>>56022163
Well, according to your article, demand is low.
So price will go down to meet demand.
You did take Econ 101 didn't you?

>>56022163
force 3% homoowners out of their homes with arson.

>>56022275
Demand isn't low they just froze the market by raising interest rates to 8%. I imagine they figure inflation and resuming student loan payments will eat up savings and then they can bring interest rates back down.

>>56022275
You are likely talking to a genx scammer that bet on pyramid scheme like crypto or a zoomer that got fucked in the brain by the fail trolls

15min cities and giving homes to non whites for low interest rates

>>56022316
space lasers burn down rural properties to force consolidation into mega cities

>>56022383
better start painting the roof blue

>>56022316
>force homeowners out of their homes with arson.
that's what the Hawaii false flags were for. the directed energy weapons burned down the existing homes.
now "they" are buying up all that property for pennies on the dollar

>>56022163
>higher rates causing economic stress
>unemployment trending up
>this correlates to increased mortgage defaults
I think it’s pretty obvious.

>>56022163
>Lower prices
Americans are experts at making simple things complicated because they don't have the will to do what has to be done.

>>56022163
fuck forever a rentcuck I am

>>56022352
You're saying the same. Demand is low. At current prices, that is.

So, once prices drop accordingly, demand will be met with supply.

Econ 101

>>56022163
TOTAL HOOMER DEATH

>>56022474
Source ?

>>56022163
What a pickle. It would be a shame if blackrock bought up all those properties.

>>56022163
rates go down again and VCs and real estate whales get more money borrowed against plebs

>>56022275
Kek demand is insanely high just no one is going to buy with rates as is. And people are in no rush to sell so the houses are just sitting on the market. Housing prices have actually continued to inflate.

Bring rates back below 5% and you’ll see houses leave the market at record pace, people are foaming at the mouth.

Powel will keep raising rates until markets capitulate.

>>56022639
Rents are dropping everywhere, real estate investors will capitulate and new ones will not be buying now. You have it backwards.

>>56022163
i've sold d.r. horton houses (pictured in OP), you will find empty modelo bottles in every one of those dumpsters.
enjoy your aids tier shitbox built by drunk beaners

>>56022163
>Like what the heck is next?
Down.

>>56022275
Houses NEVER go down
Even if all the possible memeconomic conditions are met then it is
...wait for it....

STUCK
T
U
C
K

YOU KEK !!!!

I AM NOT FUCKING SELLING
KEKEKEKEK

>>56022550
>Econ 101
>implying any of the economic rules work in current year
>implying any economic rules worked in last 20 years

>>56022789
>Rents are dropping everywhere
Wrong

>>56022550
>once prices drop accordingly
They already did, you missed it

>>56022639
Demand is fucked. Housing stock is sitting in some cases for many many months when it would have been snapped up in a week not so long ago.

>>56022163
Prices will continue to go up as they have been. Blackrock will resume buying as soon as they are barely affordable. Remember, you live in a society that wants you to fail, and house or no, you will fail in the long run if we continue to allow clown world.

>>56022163
I mean this is one of the biggest red flags for hoomes I have ever seen. Everything it fucked. We acknowledge everything is fucked but housing prices are stuck goy just ...just because.

>>56022163
House prices will continue to rise

the last thing govt wants is a repeat of 2008. so dont expect more than a 15% drop
crab for 10 years

>>56022163

Overleveraged buyers will be eventually forced to sell due to economic conditions deteriorating, because they will lose the income streams that allow them to keep up with the mortgage payments. This can be landlords, AirBNBers, flippers, regular people over their skis, or even big real estate investment companies. It hasn't happened yet but if rates stay high it will, as more an more debt has to refinance at higher levels and jobs and spending get slashed. Unemployment and global economic slowdown is the goal of the Fed and they will get it.

Once the slowdown starts in earnest and mortgage holders become forced sellers, how much prices fall depends on how quickly rates come down. If the Fed stubbornly holds rates high, or the bond market starts to worry about long term inflation risk and the long end doesn't go down much, then mortgage rates might not crash to 2-3% like you'd hope. In which case, prices have to find a new equilibrium.

Forced sellers + fewer buyers + monthly payments too high vs renting = prices come down bigly.

2 more weeks.

>>56023845
Wrong, homes are moving at the same rate as the 2010s.

>>56022163
>they're finally admitting the market is crabbing.
So what you're saying is there's still time?

>>56022637
High interest rates make SFH investments less desirable.

>>56022163
Realtors will go out of business and find new jobs.
People who own homes won’t be moving any time soon, unless they literally have to.
People who want to buy homes will either not do it, or will over pay.
The next ten years will be a slow decay of prices across the board.

>>56022163
Something else I don't think people understand is not all SFH loans are the same. Most of the owner occupied homes are fixed rate 30y loans. So they wont be selling.

But most of the none owner occupied investments properties I personally know of are financed on fixed rate loans that need to be rolled over after five years or a some other non fixed rate stipulation built in. Those people will most defiantly sell if rates don't go back to 1%.

We also have Chinas, Canadas, and other western RE markets that are probably going to blow up soon. Very good chance there will be some fall out here in the US from that.

>>56024581
What's interesting in Canada is that there are no 30y loans (except at even absurdly higher interest rates, i.e. when 5yr interest rates were 2% the 30y was 8%), which means almost everyone with a mortgage has interest rates locked into 5 years at most. idk why Canada didn't see a crash in 2009, but what we've seen in recent years is people's amortization periods extended even longer to 40+ years.

This makes me think >Those people will most defiantly sell if rates don't go back to 1%.
isn't true because they can just keep extending the length, live in their home, pay the monthly, and not care about building wealth, just piss away money to the bank as the new rent slaves.
Maybe people that bought into SFH as investment properties will sell, but they can just rent out 4 people to a room to cover their mortgage.

Meanwhile in Eurofag land, the replacement of long-term negative equity overleveraged gluttons is ever preceding.

>>56024533
There are people who will need or want to sell fast and they will offer discounts to incentive a quick sale, but I'm with you. I just thought you left that out. It's not all upward pressure on prices.

>>56024794
Your entire argument like most peoples henges on banks willingness to refinance into the foreseeable future.

I'm just not into all this doomer talk. But I don't think anyone is going to win and the banks are going to start mitigating risk.

>they can just rent out 4 people to a room to cover their mortgage.
I'm not so sure. Back to the few investment owners I know. Their insurance is has been inspecting there investments more often and banks are starting to follow up on if borrowers are adhering to their contractual agreements. Banks and insurance are starting to tighten their belts.

>>56024026
>overleveraged

This isn't a thing - you would understand if you ever applied for a mortgage.

Fannie Mae sets their DTI limits at 36%. If you can't show that the new debt you want to take out is going to be less than 36% of your gross income including your existing liabilities, then your loan won't make it through underwriting.

95% of homes are financed with a fixed rate. Their expenses aren't increasing, outside of property tax which is capped (~3%). Americans aren't going to get stuck with significantly higher bills for holding properties.

The only year that individual income has gone done from the previous year was 2010, when it went from 31,100 to 30,324 (-2.5%).

Even when real estate went down in 2022, AirBNB revenues were up 40% from the year before and continue to grow. 2022 they did 8.4 billion in revenue, 2021 was 6 billion, 2020 was 3.3 billion. And this is with alternatives (VRBO) entering the market.

>>56022604
I'm not sure what you're asking for.

>>56025592
Mortgage term renewals are a thing, particularly with commercial mortgages. People are about to get btfo. So, actually, yes, many are about to get stuck with significantly higher bills. It's going to suck for those who are underwater when the times comes, if rates don't drop. All it takes is a few to get the ball rolling.
Your optimism is familiar and likely similarly misguided.

>>56025592
>If you can't show that the new debt you want to take out is going to be less than 36% of your gross income including your existing liabilities, then your loan won't make it through underwriting.

I believe this is the policy. I do not believe this is the practice.

>>56022163
inflation keeps pumping, prices keep going up

It hasn't even begun to be over.

>>56025838
Based Mikeposter.

>>56025806
Sure, not denying that they're a thing. But they represent less than 5% of the mortgages on the market.

>>56022163
They're telling you right to your face, you will own nothing and you will be happy.

>>56025877
If your asspull stats are correct, they're referring to fixed-rate loans, not fixed-rate 30-year loans in totality.

>>56025838
We topped out last year.

>>56025980
Check this sick double top.

>>56022216
test

>>56025998
>Average is still in 2022

>>56022488
remember buying a home is the worse financial decision most people will ever make.

Reminder that interest rates hit 20% in the 1980s.

>>56022163
>people cant afford homes
>investors arent buying
>property owners arent selling
Somebody is going to have to break. My money is the property owners since the reasons they sell could be numerous and selling is something you physically can do no matter what as long as you own an object while buying requires you to have sufficient funds, which if the economy is in the toilet, will not happen for buyers.

>>56026152
Which means a decline in value in real terms. It's fuckin O V E R.

>>56022163
More importantly, how do we take advantage of it? I wish I had the funds to buy up property in a crash so I could just wait. But am I on the right track if I buy inverse funds like SRS and DRV? Are there better ways to take advantage of the housing market with $10-20k at my disposal?

>>56026343
Get a job that provides you more than lunch money to "invest"

>>56022789
>rents are dropping
Hahahahahahaha get a load of this delusional rentoid. Only 27 more days until your next payment, chop chop

>>56022352
>>56022639
demand is not high
if demand were high sales would be high
demand is measured in SALES not your weird intuition
Low supply + Low demand + High interest rates + High Prices == crab

>>56026245
the only reason anyone would sell in this market is if they are forced to, I know that with my 2.6% loan I will never sell this house because the carrying costs are so low, if I moved anywhere else my housing costs would instantly double at the least and possibly triple. I am price insensitive, housing prices could go down over 30% and I would still be saving money keeping the house.

>>56026413
yeah thats great for you but what about some retard who took out a 400k mortgage on 40k per annum and then got fucked by the rate rises. Or some guy with an interest only mortrgage on a rental property that he cant rent out to anyone. People like this are the ones who sell. Or people who need to move for work, for family, for whatever.

>>56026397
It's okay if you don't understand enough to give advice. Thanks anyway.

>>56026413
What happens if you lose your job? 61% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. If we get unemployment even to 5%, we'll see a tsunami of foreclosures hitting the market. It doesn't matter if someone has a mortgage with a 2.5% interest rate. If they dont have any savings and lose their primary income, they will either be forced to sell or be foreclosed on. Remember that most real estate wasn't bought from 2020 to 2023 either, so people can sell their homes at 2016-2019 prices and still be a few percentage points in the green. Multiply this by millions of people, and you get a housing crash.

The explicitly stated goal of the federal reserve is to break the labor market so we dont have wage spiral inflation, they want millions to be put out of work and get rehired at lower wages.

>>56026494
>What happens if you lose your job? 61% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. If we get unemployment even to 5%, we'll see a tsunami of foreclosures hitting the market.

it's possible, but like I said, I am actively saving money just from owning a house compared to renting even the cheapest places around me, if I lose my job the last thing I would want to do would be to move to some higher cost rental. Personally I am not worried, I could even take a pay cut and still be fine in this house, but I'm sure it could happen to other people, as long as the labor market stays strong housing will stay up, if the labor market dumps we will probably see forced selling but I'm betting there will be a long lag before people are forced to sell.

>>56026532
I agree, the labor market is the only thing propping up housing right now. But i think that will change radically in the next 18 months. Rate hikes lag by 18 months, and we saw the unemployment rise by .3% in August. Peoples" discretionary spending has completely vaporized. Couple that with student loan payments restarting and the consumer is dead. No one spending money on Chinese garbage at target = mass lay offs incoming. And remember the average American doesn't even have 1000$ to cover emergency expenses. Savings is at a lower state than before the pandemic. The fed is deliberately trying to break the labor market so people are FORCED to either sell their homes at much lower prices or face foreclosure.

>>56026608
>Couple that with student loan payments restarting and the consumer is dead.

Zoomers are 2% of the market.

>>56025806
>commercial
Literally no one cares about former wagie cattle cages. Boomers have locked in all housing at 2%/30yr fixed rates and will never sell unless you massively overpay and there’s not a goddamn thing you can do about it

>>56026704
Retard

>>56026704
Double retard

>>56026754

See >>56026494

>>56026772
Under 30 includes Millennials. Zoomers are under 25.

>>56026494
>61% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.

Those are the losers who never become homeowners.

>>56026777
>60+ oldfags have $36k in debt from school
What the actual fuck?

>>56026754
>He doesn't know

>>56026834
Are you drooling from the mouth? You're legitimately the most retarded person in this thread. Higher home ownership rates are WORSE for your argument. The more people who own a home, the higher the number of homeowners living paycheck to paycheck.

Lets take the highest state from that graphic you posted, South Carolina. At 75.9%, if 100% of non-homeowners lived paycheck to paycheck (statistically impossible), that still 36.9% of homeowners living paycheck to paycheck. In the lowest state you posted, New York, that's still 11.7% of homeowners living paycheck to paycheck, if you assume 100% of non-homeowners live paycheck to paycheck.

But it gets even worse for you, because renters pay for the mortgages of landlords. If a landlord has 10 homes for rent, and 60% of the occupants can no longer afford rent and leave, that means that landlord has to pay for 6 mortgages out of pocket. And they'll stop the negative cashflow by liquidating their assets.

You're just so retarded dude kill yourself.

>>56026857
They took on their debt before Clinton and Gingrich made different loans non-dischargable. Probably also during a boom time. If you were unlucky and graduated into a recession, then went back to school to get [insert professional degree, again graduating into a recession, then bought a house at the top of any one of various bubbles, yeah, it could fuck even a Boomer up. Timing is everything.

>>56026903
*student

>>56026883
You can't own a house if the mortgage means you would be living paycheck to paycheck. You will not pass underwriting which requires that your total debt payments are below 36%. You will not meet the reserve requirements set by lenders for having a low down payment.

Landlords cannot get a mortgages for a rental property if those payments are greater than 36% of their gross income from their previous 2 years tax returns, unless they have excellent credit and a ton of reserves with 20% down then they might go up to 45%.

>>56026903
>If you were unlucky and graduated into a recession
Hey, that's me!

>>56026918
There’s a new loan program. 680 FICO, 20% down and a rent appraisal. As long as the rental income is more than the mortgage payment you’re approved

>>56026857
Government employees take out loans to get their Masters/PhD in their 50s, because their highest 3 years of earnings are counted towards their pension.

So you'll have people at the end of their salary schedule that go back to school, get the degree, and move over a column over, which increases their pension payments ~10% over ~20 years.

>>56026918
Dude stop posting, you keep making yourself look dumb. Mortgage underwriting is irrelevant to the statistics. 61% of people live paycheck to paycheck. Whichever ever way you slice, trying to make the most favorable argument for your position, that 61% includes millions and millions of home owners.

Even if you got a mortgage on a cheap house in 2019, with a low interest rate, you can still live paycheck to paycheck. If you get into new debt AFTER you buy a home, you're fucked. 1000$ a month car payments, record credit card debt, food inflation, gas price inflation, utilities inflation, healthcare inflation. It all adds up to put the American consumer in the worst financial situation in decades. Students loans restarting is just a cherry on top.

Also landlords can get an FHA loan where they can use the projected rental income of the property to qualify for a mortgage. So you're extra retarded and don't know what you're talking about.

>>56026949
Right. People who are able to put 20% down are not living paycheck to paycheck.

>>56026410
He meant interest in buying is high. They just can't afford it.

>>56022882
rent free

>>56024456
>dude this line drawn in a box without any reference to give meaning though
that chart is worthless

>>56026975
Hey dummy, if unemployment spikes and tentants dont pay and you cant afford to lower rents, then it your debt to income ratio and down payment doesn't mean shit. That property is now generating negative cashflow and you have to just eat it or liquidate.

>>56026970
>Also landlords can get an FHA loan where they can use the projected rental income of the property to qualify for a mortgage

Won't help. Only 75% of the rental income can be counted, and the payments count against your debt ratio. They won't qualify.

>>56022639
>just no one is going to buy with rates as is.
then demand is not high

>>56026834
Ahhh this stupid nigger has returned with his meme picture. Fuck you nigger brain and your retarded bullshit.

>>56027002
lol retard cant read the top of the image

>>56026949
>As long as the rental income is more than the mortgage payment you’re approved
This explains a lot.
>>56026975
Windfall. Like Boomer parent inheritance or a large bonus or crypto slot winnings.

>>56022163
>a sucker born every minute
So, it will stay up indefinitely

>>56024018
Already 10% price cuts all over Zillow and no one is still buying. Mortgage cucks cope is hilarious desu.

>>56022352
>bring interest rates back down

>>56027270
Only in the western states where low interest rates most affected home values.

>>56027297
>Only in western states
Nope. In every state desu.

>>56027309
Not really.

>>56027178
>and still nothing of value was added to the conversation
The bottom reference of the chart is cut off you insufferable faggot. The image is worthless.

>>56027319
Well here's Iowa I saw like 2 10% price cuts on the first page. If it's starting in western states it will roll over east eventually.

>>56027270
>price rises 10% over the past few months
>TEEHEE THE PRICE JUST DROPPED 10% THE OTHER DAY
retard

>>56027505
Yep cope is real with this one.

>>56027502
Here you go

>>56027503
Western states had more appreciation which is why it crashed harder than the rest of the country, same thing happened in 2007-08.

>>56027537
>the delusion is strong with this one
Prices have been increasing chud. Just because some roll back a few months doesn't mean the market is collapsing.

>>56027576
When shtf it's going to be much worse than 2008.

>>56022163
it's really weird how the article's title draws a line between "Americans" and "Investors", as if those investors had no nationality. WHO are those investors they are talking about?

>>56025592
>baggie can't read a chart
45% DTI with 720 credit score and ZERO months cash reserves, but no one is over leveraged. Kek

>>56026918
Jesus Christ bro you're retarded, the chart you posted clearly shows they'll underwrite up to 45% DTI, and you don't seem to understand DTI is Debt to Gross Income, it says nothing about total spending only debt obligations. 36% DTI is already going to be 50% or more of net income, someone with a 36%+ DTI mortgage is very likely living paycheck to paycheck or very close to it

>>56027570
This is because listings get taken off at the 40-60 day mark, and get put back on a week later for -5%.
I've seen a lot of houses which do this two or three times before going under contract. And recently a house under contract has close to even odds of falling through and ending up listed again.

The housing mania is over.

>>56027708

>>56022163
why buy a home when there's no jobs and no wimens to start a family with? the american dream is dead. big tech has turned american into pajeet captial 2.0. were just another slave class living 8 to a bedroom

>>56022275
>Well, according to your article, demand is low.
>So price will go down to meet demand.
>You did take Econ 101 didn't you?
It's wonderful when people go into the real world and notice everything they learned in school was bullshit.
Especially Econ 101.

>>56027762
>if LTV <75%

That's a 25% down payment. They're not "paycheck-to-paycheck".

>>56022397
Um. I literally know communists that meet up to discuss best areas to burn to combat "capitalism destroying the world"
On the west coast.

>>56022639
>demand is insanely high just no one is going to buy
never change

>>56024026
Foreigners renting bnb doesn't honestly tell anything.

My local area has finally cooled down. And now that it's cooled down I want to buy, and now that I am finally able to buy after 3 years I figure the collapse is about to actually happen so I might as well wait.

>>56022163
Boomers will force the government to bail out their rental properties, possibly by created some kind of forced-rental policy where millennials and zoomers get kicked out of wherever they are now if they don't own houses and rehomed to pay rent to boomer landlords. Gen X will then act as the middle men, as they usually do.

>>56030097
>all of those areas are small farms owned by 90 year olds who aren't long for this world anyway

>>56022383
Can you imagine 2 million hawaiians just fucking all moving to Hilo and Oahu stacked on top of each other? Like Okinawa, japan but exponentially shittier.

>>56022275
>>56022550
Shame you didn't take more than 101. You will always be an overconfident brainlet that tries to understand the world in your oversimplified, and flawed understanding of the economy.

Americans are like little baby. America does not have a housing crisis. Come to Canada to see a real housing crisis.

>>56030097
You could, eh, you know, tell the FBI about that
Or, do you like to be complicit in arson when they do it? Do you whats-app with these people? These people are not your friends and would kill you like a proletariat if they felt like it.
Obligatory nigger for not glowing, do the right thing, anon, report communists!

>>56030270
Ah my canadian friend. Come to england and i will show you what hell looks like.

>>56022163
Rapid appreciation in Zestimates