/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55891351
i also predicted a market rally when everyone was bearish

>>55891351
S&P is literally made up they can sent it to whatever number they want at any time, it's not tethered to reality in any way.
It's basically just a bigger, more entrenched version of dodgy crypto exchanges scamwicking people.
None of it is real.

>>55891351
It's over, stinkmarines

>>55891351
>now when everyone is bullish

If the SP500 fell to 3000 overnight it would still be in a long term bull market going back to the 1980s

>>55891585
It may not seem like it on biz
But if you take a wider market view you’ll see the majority of people are still holding crypto, real estate and stocks - with the idea that inflation is behind us, and that rate cuts are expected throughout 2024

There is also wide consensus that if we do get a market crash, the fed will step in to save everyone

>>55891624
>But if you take a wider market view you’ll see the majority of people are still holding crypto, real estate and stocks
The majority of people are complaining how they can barely afford eggs, let alone to be able to put any money in any kind of investment. What you're taling about is just past cycle bagholders, normal in every single bear market and sure some of those have to get shaken out as well.
>with the idea that inflation is behind us
Again, the majority of people are only crying that everything is more and more expensive. Hell, even kids on tiktok are complaining about high prices now. Inflation, recession, depression, all standard normalfag talk at this point.
>There is also wide consensus that if we do get a market crash
The wide consensus is that everyone is waiting for the next big "market crash" to then buy in.

>>55891658
What will happen with all the loans people took throughout 2021-2022 during near 0 rates, when they get readjusted for higher rates and debt payments increase?
You don’t think people will sell assets?

What you said is right about people struggling, and actually supports my point. People will scramble to sell assets in order to survive. The real estate market is at a stand-off between buyers and sellers, and prices are still near highs.

Also, do you not foresee an induced credit crisis in order to introduce CBDC’s? Only during crisis are govt’s able to make structural changes.

>>55891658
In real estate, sellers do not want to sell because they will need to rebuy a home with higher rates.
Buyers do not want to buy because everything is unaffordable.

The thing is, big picture, when you look at what most people actually HOLD, the majority of people’s wealth is tied to real estate. Thus, the max pain scenario would be for real estate to fall, after everyone took out loans to buy a second home while rates were near 0.
Real estate always lags and moves the slowest so the rate hikes are only starting to be felt.

>>55891711
I don't think there will be the usual "market crash" but more of a slow grind, just like the crab is chopping up a lot of market participants right now. Remember the majority of market participants have to suffer and that includes the huge cash on the sidelines waiting for that le end of the world market crash scenario to buy in. Same with your real estate example.

My main point is that even the standard normalfag is a blackpilled doomer at this point, that being bearish is most definitely not "going against the grain" in this point in time. In fact being in any way hopeful or optimistic would be going against the grain while waiting for black swan event #5384381 is a crowded trade.

>>55891775
That is one possible scenario, I agree with you. A crash is not guaranteed, but an analogy I can give is that the forest is very dry, and all it takes is one spark for all of it to burn.

Most people’s wealth is still mostly tied to risk assets (mostly real estate).
People are pessimistic and struggling, but look at what they are actually holding ,most people are still exposed to the market.

>>55891585
Hey, 4 of those are my threads!

Daily reminder, Doomers are retards wrong 99.8% of the time.
If you follow the advice of Doomers, you will never make money.

Stupid, dumb, Doomer scum.

>>55891938
Most people are complaining how they will never be able to afford a house of any kind. Or how their rent is sky high. In fact the tiktok shit I was talking about is literally about that exactly. Articles of more and more young adults staying with their parents for longer than ever before, the ones who rent live like sardines with like 5-6 other people in a small space etc.

>>55892023
Exactly, the ones who are suffering/renting do not own assets - they have low savings. They are irrelevant in this sense.

What we should focus on are the people who took out loans to buy a second rental home/Airbnb. These are the people who will suffer the most.

>>55892023
There are many over leveraged folks with multiple homes/renting/Airbnb, who are beginning to feel the pains of higher rates.

A lot of cases where the income from rent is not covering mortgage payments due to adjustments for higher rates.

>>55892224
>the ones who are suffering/renting do not own assets
That's the vast majority.
>What we should focus on are the people who took out loans to buy a second rental home/Airbnb
That's a minority.

>>55892331
US has a home ownership rate of 65%. They are the majority

>>55892366
And now try to get the statistic of how many of those 65% own a second house and we should get to the bottom of this.

>>55891351
>"called"

>>55891362
>"predicted"

Notice how no one mentions whether they actually made/make money?

>>55892238
Dear Redditor, get out and take mr. Gayed with you.

>>55892495
>Notice how no one mentions whether they actually made/make money?

i put every paycheck in TQQQ for like 6 months and cashed out the 2x a couple weeks ago lol

>>55891351
This man just called for a large pepperoni pizza with extra cheese from Domino's

>>55892386
Can someone continue this conversation for me?

>>55892505
He’s been pretty spot on though since covid crash

>>55892386
We need to collectively get to the truth
Please chime in with your perspectives

The two potential paths are
(1) credit event crisis
(2) asset stagnation/grind

Which of these 2 do you think is the most likely?

>>55892647
Bull run to trap retail in then credit crisis, assets won't stagnate, they'll lose value short term, but that's going to be a generational dip to buy, they are surely more worth than worthless debt long term.

>>55891351

His ETFs are dogshit. Google RORO or JOJO. Gayed is the most annoying manchild on Twitter.