/biz/ - Business & Finance

there won't be a crash. obviously i am biased since i own several rental properties, but the reality is that the value of homes will always go up. supply is low through zoning laws and limited new construction. demand is high through immigration. i tried warning a lot of people here to buy when the rates were so low. misses opportunity for a lot of people that got greedy waiting for some epic crash. it's just not going to happen. the next best time to buy is always NOW. it will continue to go up, trust me.

>>55707322
>we can never crash
bearish

>>55707322
Checked and redpilled.
This Anon knows what's up.

t. lifetime rentoid :(

>>55707325
brother, i have been a landlord for over ten years know. i have seen to many of my tenants play the waiting game only to get btfo. you might have a small 10% correction after it continues to go up another 30%. don't get greedy trying to time the real estate market. you'll be just further priced out.

>>55707356
It's so true. People being born now will never own homes

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>work your hands to the bone until you die in the hot sun
versus
>live in a society that protects you from violence and provides comforts, necessities, and general freedom and autonomy
Ebin picture

>>55707519
>protects you from violence
Lel, I would unironically wager ancient Egypt was safer than chicago

>>55707519
those "slaves" had better lives than us guaranteed

>>55707252
bought my house for 185k last fall now realtor.com says its like 205k
never gonna fucking sell lmao

>>55707252
Austin is down 10% YoY. There are plenty of big shitty places where prices are pulling back from insane highs, but it's not really affecting small town USA. I'm hoping for the crash this fall so I can get an addition put on my place dirt cheap.

>>55707662
Kek

>>55707252
Our taxes pay for much better benefits and socital needs change over 4000 years.
pic related retarded.

>>55707252
Half the countries houses are crashing anon

>>55707799
>societal(fify) needs change over 4000 years.
Imagine believing this. We're the exact same people with the exact same problems as back then. You're not special. Your ancestors had to deal with whores, niggers, jews, and the landlord just like you.

>>55707852
ok but back then literal slaves got to have sex and 14 kids
but 90k salary educated wageniggers will all die childless today
we live on hellscape planet nigger

>>55707822
Wow a heckin 5% price drop after a 300% run up!!!!

>>55707822
>10% decline after 50% increase
>crashing

>>55707799
Yeah! Our taxes pay for housing, school, healthcare, and university for millions of low iq 3rd worlders who the government encourages to come in. Then our corporations have ESG programs to hire them over us. I love America!!!!

>>55707519
>Massa good to us. Yessuh you lazy field niggas don't know how good we haz it

>>55707822
>Most of the country at an all time high price wise
Bleak

>>55707322
>high through immigration
The only true financial (((reason))) behind the push for more migrants : kike boomers trying to artificially prop up the value of their real estate by any mean.
It's so fucking outrageous to see crappy cardboard houses selling for 5-700K where 10% of the price is from materials/ spics workforce to make the fucking house, and 90% tied to disgusting anti-construction laws/zoning regulations by boomers.. Those greedy fucks really pulled the ladder up behind them. They'd rather see their kids become hobos and the white race genocided than lose 5% on their zestimate.

>>55707356
>don't get greedy
that's rich coming from you

>>55707356
>>55707322
>>55707354
>>55707758
>>55707822
>>55708003

Good Luck,

Mike

>>55707252
because 95% of all money is created not by the mint or the fed, but by private banks when they extend credit, ergo, sign mortgages, car loans etc. In modern fractional reserves they dont keep a reserve requirement, they print from nothing until the ratio of credit / deposits meets the reserve requirement, and than they burn the principle when the loan is paid pack (not the interest though, that has to come from another loan)

We see than, that housing prices are basically de facto monetary/fiscal policy. Prices go down, new dollars for new mortgages slow, reducing the rate of growth in the money supply causing deflation, deflation enables the mortgages to be paid back faster, which means more principle being burned creating a cycle that eventually destroys the viability of the dollar.

Housing than, must always go slowly up.

I believe this is why they use the term mortgage (death-pledge) in french. You and the bank are stealing through inflation, and than have a gun to the financial systems head to pay you back more or crash all other (more productive) investments/capitol

>>55707822
>californians
>ex-californians (WA/OR/NV/AZ)
>mormons
>rocky mountain liberals
>george floyd protestors
>urban texans (austin, DFW, houston)
>DC
>people who moved to the south under COVID (atlanta, raleigh, charlotte, nashville, florida)

this is wonderful, all the people i hate are getting BTFO

>>55707822
>housing prices pump up 50-100% in a few years then correct 10% down
>OMG REAL ESTATE IS CRASHING
retard

>>55708551
No one is getting btfo besides priced out rentoids.

>>55708275
>I have to rent until 2026

>>55707252
People who got uber rich with pandemic are slurping their 10th and 11th homes.
t. One of em.

>>55709238
lol

>>55707252
it's unironically "it's fucking OVER" for most people in country.

Do people really believe the image OP posted?

Egyptian taxation including impressment into the military or construction jobs,raw grain,baked bread and often slaves.

I've noticed a severe decline in poast quality over the last 24 months.

Is everyone on here 18 now?

>>55711338
Thank you for correcting the record /his/poster

Housing bulls are either retarded or paid shills poisoning the well.

>>55708275
great perspective/prediction.
the graph sucks though, a wedge is not going to be predictive at a macro level.
I can draw it as a channel, but the bottom line doesn't have a second touch point, so we don't really know what the channel is.
in mine I kept the bottom about the same rate of change as the top, as a guess.
but my graph doesn't look nearly as bearish. which is ironic because I am sure it's a bearish real estate market.
so what's happening to real estate is gotta be what's happened to crypto, where it just becomes less and less volatile as the amount of money tied up is greater and greater.
so, then I think we'll have a real estate crash, but it really won't be as bad as 2008.
so back then they thought we'd dip 20%, this time that estimate should be like 10%.

>>55711775
alternatively

>>55711964
>>55711775

i like the lay out but zoom out, the market is not topped out in any way, i think if you take the top line and align 2008 and 1994 youll see more where the top end will be. my reasons are twofold: 1) average inventory on the market rolling 90 is about 1.2 mill which is 30% of healthy market standards (3.5 - 4). 2) with very few people selling and 80% of current owners having a 4% or less rate, the only people even remotely interested are cash flow corporations, so there is almost no pressure to sell. Add to that the absolute foldup of residential construction companies post 2008 and there simply isnt the ability to build faste enough to meet demand. Lets say interest rates drop to 5%, a cataclysm in an of itself. Demand would only explode from there. I think we are still waiting on the second part of the bubble, which is the new construction bubble. We are starting to see new plots forming but theres just so much more demand than supply that itll take anouth 2 years probably for the supply to outstrip demand at best, with a crash following that. What do you think? The market pressure is entirely on the demand side right now, even as rates have doubled monthly payments were barely finding an equillibrium.

>>55712079
correction, 2007 and 1989

>>55712079
>>55712098
he's scared
the top is in

>>55712079
>i think if you take the top line and align 2008 and 1994 youll see more where the top end will be.
that was the first graph I posted, but it doesn't really make sense. I get where you're coming from because I charted that first, but definitely doesn't look right.
>We are starting to see new plots forming but theres just so much more demand than supply that itll take anouth 2 years probably for the supply to outstrip demand at best, with a crash following that. What do you think?
I think we're at november 2006 currently. basically ready to drop off, just that's a really slow painful process. to me that looks like we've got another year before people start admitting there's a problem.
>The market pressure is entirely on the demand side right now, even as rates have doubled monthly payments were barely finding an equillibrium.
that doesn't make any sense nor is believable to me. we've jacked the interest rates and we should skyrocket to a slightly under 10% unemployment rate, which should create that sell pressure.
why do you think the demand is up? what are you seeing I'm not.

>>55712530
well demand is up for a couple reasons. the first one is upward pressure in lower income housing and rents. rents are rising massively because of increased immigration putting pressur eon the low end. This forces people into a situation where they feel they have to lock in a mortgage price now if they can because rents will continue to rise. The other side is not demand pressure persay but supply pressure. Theres just not enough inventory for everyone who wants a house to have one and we are still seeing bidding wars due to cash buyers paying anything they can to lock in whats left. Add to that the problem in the US, CA, and Australia of asian cash buyers using real estate to expatriate their money and you have a recipe for this situation. Thats where im seeign it. It feels unsustainable but I dont see anywhere for prices to go without a substantial increase in supply, Because while demand isnt 2000s crazy, there are less than 25% of the number of houses available to buy as there were then.

>>55711381
look at the double top aaaa

>>55707322
>limited new construction
Come to central FL. Newconstruction and newfags all over the place. It’s never ending

>>55707322
>but the reality is that the value of homes will always go up. supply is low through zoning laws and limited new construction. demand is high through immigration.

yeah here's your demand bro

>>55712739
>0% growth rate by 2100
Cool chart bro

>>55712888
we actually hit 0% in 2021 but they didn't want to say that

>>55707322
>there won't be a crash
> it will continue to go up, trust me.
the top is in

>>55707852
>We're the exact same people with the exact same problems as back then
You would be correct except you forgot to factor in all of the technological progress that has happened over 4000 years. most inventions have allowed us to gather resources far more efficiently or save immense amounts of time.
Try explaining a tractor or a dishwasher to an ancient egyptian craftsman and see what happens.

>>55707252
>Genesis 47 being used as the source for history of Old Kingdom Egypt
The bible is literally younger than the New Kingdom (less than 3,000 years old)

>>55712638
no, there's not some abnormal influx of immigrants going on. rent is up because lending was tightened.
and no, asian buyers are not going to prop up the real estate market.
when I asked why you thought demand was, I was expecting something more numerical.
e.g. pic related, mortgage apps are down, which means demand is down.
do you have something that's more compelling or enlightening then, yea, I mean it looks like people aren't taking on mortgages... are they all cash buyers?

>>55707252
O.M.G.
LITERAL SLAVES in Egypt were treated better than we are

My life would be easier if I were a slave in ancient Egypt

>>55712724

NE FL here. The scamdemic pushed a lot of people out of their original states and into FL. Every fucking time I turn around there's another shitty condo complex being built

>>55713027
Found the Frankist Sabbatean!