/biz/ - Business & Finance

People are trapped and can't afford to sell and buy something else. This puts us in a very precarious position of a thin market which is susceptible to schizo swings.

>>55661234
It is dead. There are basically no houses on the market right now.

>>55661234
It's a dead man walking

>>55661234
You need deflationary event to crash markets and correct. Inflation means be slow crab up forever as everyone gets poorer. You better belive in stagflation. You're living it.

>>55661234

The reason nobody can buy is the same reason nobody can sell, it would mean losing their locked in 3.5% interest rate.

You would need some sort of butthole sundering financial event to cause mass layoffs, resulting in people being unable to pay on their mortgages. This would have to be combined with an insane credit crunch, otherwise people would just take out equity loans so they can keep from defaulting long enough to get other work.

Don't get it twisted, demand isn't low. People want to buy but can't. Nobody wants to sell.

Takes years for real estate to sort itself out. The housing market didn't really bottom until 2011-2012. Unemployment isn't going up either so there's not many forced sales.

it obviously takes time for houses to be listed, then not sell, then reduce in price etc.

many people are on fixed-rate mortgages for up to five years, so takes time for the effect of new rates to be felt on them too.

>>55661598
>fixed-rate mortgages for up to five years, s
those come due in 2025

smart people will try to size-down towards the end of 2024

>>55661449
All you need is for some smart people to sell first and go into renting and it will fall like a domino.
See spain 2008 sweden 2022 germany now
underlying conditions are not necessary for a panic to trigger, all that’s needed is the glacier to start moving

>>55661653
Not even close. Investors step in and buy up properties to drive up prices even more. If people arent buying, theyre renting.

>>55661707
lmao 'investors' are now earning more money on bonds without the risk of buying the generational top on an illiquid, depreciating asset that has inummerable risks. Every hustle influencer retard that thought the ZIRP free money hack would last forever is about to take it in the seat. As other have said, it will take years, then days.

>>55661234
Because wealth is distributed in a massively disproportionate way. So you and your buddies are just getting priced out further, but you weren't buying houses to begin with. Meanwhile, the people who can buy the houses have so much money, quite literally infinite amounts, that the interest rate is a meaningless figure to them.

>>55661234
Because there’s still people dumb enough to feed liquidity into this market

>>55661449
>But they wont wanna tho cause of low rates!
As someone with a financial incentive to see people fomo into residential re I am actually amazed people are actually falling for this shit. The magic of telling people what they want to hear.

>>55661449
People sell regardless: death, divorce, moving, whatever

>>55661234
it's a zombie rn

>>55661234
There are millions of people who can't afford for it to die. So, it continues to live. Shrimple.

>>55661234
Because rent increased even more than housing prices so nobody has a choice but to buy or they get caught renting a shithole for upwards of $2k a month. Get ready for mass homelessness.

Good thread.

>>55661616
If everyone knows that this is the smart thing to do, the actual smart people will either wait it out or get ahead of it.

>>55662042
Well you can rent a shithole for $2,000 a month or you can put $120k down and finance a place for $3,500. Renting seems like the obvious choice at least for me

>>55661234
No one is selling + no one is buying + no one is building new homes + existing starter homes are being bought up by the thousands by ((((financial institutions))))...for example in South Carolina entire communities are being bought by blackstone. I know because I lived there. Brand new communities of single family homes...rental only and all owned by blackstone....YOU VILL OWN NOTHING AND YOU VILL LIKE IT

>>55662042
Most people in my age group moved back in with their parents...a whole generation of 27+ year old men and women living with mom and dad or like college sluts renting with 5 to a house. Zero dignity..and people wonder why the younger generations are not having kids??? How the fuck can they if they cannot afford a house

>>55661927

? the fuck are you even saying?

Debt at less than 4% is practically free money. Selling a property with that interest rate foregoes that money.

>>55662015

>divorce

Results in two people needing homes instead of 1. Net demand increases.

>moving

Net neutral for demand. No impact on prices.

>Death

Entirely independent of market conditions. A "Forced to sell" event.

Real estate prices only meaningfully drop during a widespread "Forced to sell" events. Just look to Aus or Canada to see how insane prices can become.

>>55662519
Yep. Americans have no idea how good they have it.

>>55662519
>Net neutral for demand. No impact on prices.
Depends on the reason for moving. Family moving from apartment to sfh increases sfh demand, decreases apartment demand. Dunno what the relative amounts of those are.

>>55661341
this
>no one selling because they know the "price" would drop
lmfao

>>55662419
There are plenty of affordable homes in America. Zoomers just demand on living in the same 10% of the country where homes are all 350k+. Everything else is too diverse, or too far out for them.

>>55662519
Doesn’t matter. The United States is vast and each market has its own characteristics.
Additionally not everyone who sells is buying again.
It’s insane that you people can’t grasp basic market fundamentals.
Do people need a place to live?
Yeah they do but do they need to deplete their entire savings and spend 50-75% of their income on it. No people will settle on alternatives until it makes sense for them not to.
You’re not going to quadruple the interest rate after doubling prices in a few years and expect it to keep going up.
Literally “new paradigm up only” tier logic for why the market will continue higher.
It’s so painfully obvious this is the top

>>55663172
midwit response.
You think you can time the market...

>>55661234
For housing to be dead, you need 18% mortgage rates, wait a little longer rentbros.

>>55664062
You'd have to have like $80k houses for the math to work. I'm in.

>>55661653
Germany 2022?
Did I miss something?

>>55662519
>>55662792
Bump so that Americans can see the utter Hell of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

>>55661449
Tell you you've never worked a day in your life without telling me

>>55661234
Because I can afford to pay a 7% mortgage for a few years but it will come down so I can refinance

>>55665331
This. The same types of people bidding $100k+ over asking are the same that won't bat an eye at higher interests rates. Thank god I bought in early 2021.

>>55663172

Dude, I already established nobody is buying. Nobody is disagreeing with that. What you're failing to recognize is that nobody is selling either. The overwhelming majority of people have mortgage terms that are not current market rate.

This is not an efficient market. It sucks for buyers to buy and it sucks for sellers to sell. I made no claims to prices continuing to increase; I only claimed that you cannot expect some sort of crash or massive price correction, at least not based on classic microeconomic principles. (Though there is precedent in other countries for prices getting much crazier)

>>55662937
The problem is we want to actually live near our families and the people who know us. My kid has four living grandparents all living in the most expensive part of America. I have 50+ aunts, uncles, and cousins all right here. So my choices are either to head out to bumblefuck nowhere so he can be alone and one day die of a fentanyl overdose, or continue living in this overpriced liberal hellhole where at least people give a shit about us.

>>55661360
Right on point, It should have been the collapse of SVB and the banking system but the FED bailed out the banks, now we wait for the next thing to break that won’t get bailed out in time to avoid a deflationary event

>>55661234
People living with their decisions. Literally, anon. Same as rentcucks.

>>55661234
Take the self sustaining boat pill and leave the lemming masses to be devoured by clown world

>>55661616
>5 Years fixed rate
Canadians need not reply

>>55665554
I got some bad news. Your kid is going to experience diversity and O.D on fentanyl not because hes an addict but because the batch he got was dirty. Enjoy your family and remind them that they killed your kid with diversity

>>55665644
>self sustaining boat
LMAO
I've lived on a boat and the amount of maintaince is absolutely insane and not to mention never fucking ending

Without civilization your boat is fucking done in 5 years, 10 if you're lucky.

Seems smarter to rent an apartment and invest your money in index funds. Index funds with 12% return rate is hard to beat.

>>55665808
>He didn't sneak into porg for mignight repairs.
Misspelling because I'm drunk and it's also the only way to proce you aren't a bot anymore.

>>55665307
Yes.

t. Landlord

You have to rugpull homeowners with jobs or real estate collectives/ponzis like Zillow and blackstone

Because if you aren't paying towards owning, youre pissing away your money on rent

>>55661792
>TWO MORE WEEKS

>>55661234
Because landkikes and blackrock have infinite money can buy up all the houses on the planet if they wanted to

>visit Montana
>big house is like 200k
>hot women flirt with me when they find out Im leaf
>zero crime, people laugh when I ask to put my bike inside somewhere safe
>99% white 1% asian for tasty restaurant options

get me the fuck out of here

>>55664036
You think you can’t
>>55665522
Ok fair enough

>>55662419
You know only people here in North America see living with parents as a bad thing , in almost every culture you live with family forever

>>55666042
That’s not guaranteed, shit doesn’t go up forever , the western world is in a bubble , look at japans market that’s crabbed for 30 years at a time , eventually these free money index funds won’t be around

>>55665554
Zoomers think anything not shaded in this map is "bumblefuck nowhere"

>>55662419
>doesn't have sex because he is scared mommy will hear him

>>55661234
those "rich" homeowners who brag about buying in 2019 at 3% or whatever are actually poorfags who owe another 300+ months of payments and can't afford to trade plywood boxes.
>I-IT'S NOT A STARTER HOME!!!!
>I NEVER WANTED TO TRADE UP ANYWAYS!!!!!

>>55664325
Also government default on debt. So dont hold your breath

>>55668550
Explain to me how you expect to live a normal life if you have to drive 4 to 5 hours to simply
>visit a dentist
>get a haircut
>visit any doctor who uses something heavier than a stethoscope
Forgive me if I want more services than just a moonshiner, a McDonald's, and a gas station.
>just cut your own hair bro
>just perform your own root canal bro
>just buy your own MRI machine bro

>>55665596
won't happen. We gotta save the Ukraine! (the dollar in reality)

>>55661234
Illiterate shitskins have entered the country by the millions and gladly pay 7% interest communally to the Jews so they can cram 30 people into a house in what was once a decent white country

>>55669917
you disgusting bigot idiot. america was never white as long as black haired people were allowed to come over which was since the beginning

>>55668550
The statistical probability of good pussy outside of the shaded areas is zero. Why would any young single man willingly move there?

Buddy, back in my day mortgage rates were 18%. 7% is nothing, stop whining and get a job

>>55670091
america was literally 90% white less than 100 years ago, you have to go back ranjeev

>>55661234
OMG rate 7% OMG.... my friend in tech got 20% raise this year....who care of 7% rate if your salary raise faster ?

>>55671232
wow 18% on a $50,000 home

>>55661234
It will be

>>55671330
Catholics aren't white mutt.

>>55669427
Sorry you missed out. I’m sure blackrock will cut you a good deal on rent in like 2030 (until they raise it)

>>55669843
>small towns don't have barbershops

LOL

>>55671591
Based

>>55671202
No better place exists to pick up women. They all view you as their meal ticket out.

>>55661598

I think an 18 month lag is typical... but rates moved so much and so fast, who knows with this market.

but we all know the problem. nobody can buy, cuz nobody can sell, cuz they can't buy.

>>55670091
>b-b-but black haired people therefore we need to import millions of turd world invaders
Kill yourself

>>55672366
That doesn't explain the Irish bruh.

>>55661234
>why is housing not dead?
This so where the billionaires money is hidden... 7% mortgage + up to 5% cashbacks when paid to some merchants via CryptMi app is a huge money to be realized...
>Why am I always a latefag?

I own a home and have thought about selling, but guess what, I'm not going to because the math doesn't work out and it's the same for a majority of current homeowners.

1. To get the exact same house I own now I would be paying 3X the price I paid 7 years ago
2. My mortgage rate would be literally 4X
3. moving costs have become ridiculous

All that adds up to me not being able to upgrade to a better house and move out of this starter house I am stuck in, so instead I am talking to a contractor about adding on some additions and renovating. Many such cases around me.

>>55668550
This map is fucked. 2/3rds of the places in red are bumblefuck nowhere

>>55673320
Nothing explains the Irish

>>55666161
It's so true. If you are a renter. You are unironically a slave and you are admitting to the world you are a slave.

>>55666088
Chevked

>>55665299
Say thanks to Cecil Rhodes

>>55661234
Everythings already peaked. Your going to have to wait about 3000-5000 years for the next civilization bullrun when resources are cheap again after a few centuries of depopulation and automobiles going extinct along with the IQ bell curve moving to the right again after moving to the left for the last 150 years. It sucks but maybe you will get 30-40 years of temporary fun before the fourth collapse happens, for now enjoy the third "global" civilization collapse and its funny memes.