/biz/ - Business & Finance

Are you feeling the pressure bobo?

>>55537864
I'm only 20% in cash so no, I'm actually shocked at how well I'm doing. I had mentally prepared for a much worse downturn

>>55537840
Hyper inflation incoming.

>>55537840
maybe one of these situations
>market is down but inflated (bank bailouts)
like what happened during covid

>ai meme pulled up large caps
maybe small caps are the play right now

realistically we're probably at 25-30% usd inflation since 2019

>>55537840
Where is glownigger market pasta anon when you need him

>>55537840
>>Inflation
We adjusted
>>Recession fear at ATH
There's no fear, we already know we're in a recession
>>Unemployment rising
No, not really. Where do you see this?
>>Fastest rate hikes ever
So?
>>Commercial real estate about to crash
This is the one thing on your list that's actually important and even so won't destroy an economy.
>>Regional banking crisis
No
>>Geopolitical risk at local ATHs
Non-issue

>>55537895
>No? So? We adjusted (market barely corrected and is almost at ATH). Priced in (market barely corrected). etc..
you're not very convincing desu

>>55537953
ok
best to continue living the story you tell yourself in your head
that's what winners do

>>55537840
Bulls are unhinged. Literally just pushing the market as far as they can on a degenerate gamble that Powell just randomly changes course on all his prior statements.

>>55538014
>a degenerate gamble that Powell just randomly changes course on all his prior statements.
The stock market doesn't care about Powell or rates anymore. "No landing" is the consensus view, so rising yields are actually bullish now because it means the economy is strong. We went from hard landing to soft landing to no landing. The stock market is pricing in high growth in a high rates environment with low inflation as the cherry on top

Let go of the crystal ball anon.

>>55537840
Those can all be quickly reversed, all the fed has to do is lower rates. And with inflation figures being much lower than predicted, rate cuts feel even more bullish

>>55537840
the reverse repo is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus. For the past 2 months 0.4 trillion has left the reverse repo and flooded into the stock market. This will continue at the current rate for the next estimated 8 months and at the point the fed will start lowering interest rates which will flood more money.

>>55537840
>Unemployment rising
I don't know which country you're in, but in the US unemployment has been pretty level (and very low).
Where do you get your news? Maybe it's time to ask whether it's a good source of truth.

>>55537840
The money printer goes burrrrrr. Combined with inflation equals stagflation. Enjoy the destruction of the middle class!!!!

Inflation means line goes up.

>>55537840
its going up but you aint getting richer at the end of the day

>>55538120
Reverse repos serve the purpose of contracting money out of the markets. Repos serve the purpose of flooding the market with money.

>>55537840
>Inflation
Inflation is at 3%.
>Recession fear at ATH
No one is scared of a recession. It has been and gone.
>Unemployment rising
Unemployment is fine.
>Fastest rate hikes ever
True.
>Commercial real estate about to crash
Maybe true.
>Regional banking crisis
Nope
>Geopolitical risk at local ATHs
Probably overly priced in.

>>55538128
they don't include many people on gibs for these things

>>55538476
>I blindly believe government statistics

>>55537840
it's just you

>>55537881
i did the same and i actually happy it did so even if going all in was the better move, but having some emergency cash ready helps with keeping your mental health in check

>>55537840
either the market is completely unhinged and is in the biggest deluded bear market rally in history both in price retracement and duration by a very long margin OR
the market makes a whole lot of sense

option 2 is correct if you assume that the global liquidity has troughed already and is in considerable upswing right now
ignore all the bullshit that cb heads say but look at their actions they are stimulating and easing covertly without having to update their official balance sheets
i dont know the full details of such but it appears that based arthur was right in what he said and since the svb bailout its back to brrrrr'ing to the stars

Cause youre a deadass N00b

>>55537953
I know every metric shows inflation slowing but you don't believe any of those numbers so how can you be convinced? Good luck

>>55537840
powell is going to crash everything with no survivors, boomers that vote are pissed about inflation.

>>55537840
One word, inflation-adjusted S&P 500

>>55537895
poorfags need to leave /biz/

>>55537840

>>55537840

When MSM spoonfeeds retards such as yourself the actual economic event has already happened 1 to 2 years earlier.

Learn not to be a brainlet I guess.

>>55537840
>Inflation
3% CPI, already back to Fed's desirable range. Not an issue anymore.

>Recession fear at ATH
When people are most fearful is typically when bad times have peaked. Fear is a terrible indicator as it's based entirely on emotions.

>Unemployment rising
Barely. Job market remains stupidly strong and unemployment is well under Fed's target rate

>Fastest rate hikes ever
Which may be what allowed for a soft landing. There's no reason fast hikes must equate to a recession. Nobody knew what would happen. Apparently moving fast enough means the market doesn't have time to catch up. Look at housing. Home prices are barely coming down because sellers know that rates will fall back down as quickly as they rose.

>Commercial real estate about to crash
Blind nigger. Where were you in 2020-22? It's been crashed. What you're seeing now are the last bits of capitulation.

>Regional banking crisis
Snuffed. Big banks proved they have incentive to save smaller banks a) for banking confidence and b) for the new clients they get from distressed acquisitions. Once again, not a single person lost money during this banking hickhup.

>Geopolitical risk at local ATHs
Impossible to quantify anyway. Russia could nuke Ukraine tomorrow. China could nuke us today. Nothing abnormal, especially since we've been on ice with China and Russia since 2016.

Basically, you're a slowpoke who is probably addicted to doomscrolling and is severely susceptible to confirmation bias. Accept you're a fucking loser who has no business making discretionary investments and refocus on your shitty desk job, cuckold.

>>55537840
when employment forecasts are wrong for 18 months in a row, something is wrong with the models that economists use

maybe it is the decoupling and instead of investing in China everyone is rebuilding in the west and that adds demand for jobs. China exports were down 12% yoy and large cities were in lockdown a year ago

>>55537840
I'm in the same boat

I bought the dip, I'm in the green, I'm doing great actually

But something......

Something just doesn't feel....right....

This thread is a good example of cognitive dissonance. 2 more weeks until the recession btw

>>55537840
>>Inflation
We're back down to 3% and likely still falling, prices are still high because of previous inflation but inflation itself is cooling off.
>>Recession fear at ATH
No it's not, there are tons of articles coming out now saying we've basically skirted a recession. Recession fears were at a peak in Jan/Feb
>>Unemployment rising
It's back to pre-Covid levels and has been very stable
>>Fastest rate hikes ever
Ok you've got me there, that's true
>>Commercial real estate about to crash
Possible but extremely hard to tell
>>Regional banking crisis
Fears of that already passed months ago
>>Geopolitical risk at local ATHs
Lmao fuck no. There are obviously higher risks than, say, 5 years ago, but ATH? Nothing going on right now even holds a candle to something like the Cuban Missile Crisis.

It's the meme chart

>>55541514
What else would you buy?

Banks and government keep telling little sheep like you that there will be recession so you don't pick up cheapies in fear of "muh recession" that is never coming.

>>55537840
Nothing you listed has anything to do with stock prices

Unemployment is staying surprisingly stable even though there's rumblings of certain labor markets not being as great as they used to be.

Lost a bunch of more money on puts today. This will be nothing in comparison to what the bulls will lose when big money rugpulls them soon though.

>>55541427
OP HERE, I MADE THAT PEPE

>>55541578
inflation changes the interest rate used to discount future cash flows and earnings obviously impact stock price as well, wym?

>>55537840
Who cares. I just put stop loss and I'm going to sleep. Gonna be comfy night Anons.

>>55537840
The market likes to trick people. It often does the opposite of what the majority think it will do.

>>55538128
>Official US employment numbers say
>muh source of truth
NIGGER PLEASE SAY SIKE

You wouldn't even know things were supposedly bad if you didn't go on the internet or watch the news

>HomeDepot and Lowes parking lots full every single day
>Walmart and every grocery store parking lots full all day everyday.
>Plumbers, electricians, HVAC, and every other trade completely booked
>Remodeling contractors booked up a year in advance
>Restaurants having record traffic everyday
>Every house that goes on the market is sold at or above asking price within one week
>PS5 and Nintendo Switchs are sold out everywhere and video games are making record sales.
The only people having trouble right now are minimum wage wagies.

>>55537840
1. Services sector still causing inflation
2. unemployment is really low. 2 jobs available per each unemployed. Cause for inflation.
3. Cd, bonds, apy from banks have been pretty mediocre. There has been improvement but still mediocre. Large funds still need to put money somewhere to maintain yields. This is largely an effect from quantitative easing, and us bailing out companies. Certain firms are absolutely vital to US supply chain, why would they suffer if they have gone bankrupt like 5 times (GE) and still remain a relevant firm.
4. Gas and oil contracts have not fully adjusted yet. Not sure how invrstors will react to that when they see a shock increase in maintenance/variable costs.
5. Shipping costs are still somewhat low. Prob wont be in a couple months
6. Buybacks becoming more frequent, easiest way to pay investors,whitecollar w/o compensating blue collar.
7. There are a plethora or men who dont have children. Recession fear back then usually happened because men who had children to feed would panic and cause bank runs/sharp declines in stocks. If a 23 year old who lives in a 700 dollar studio realizes half of his acct tanked, hes alot less likely to pull out all funds for family.
8. Russian and chinese bots will say USD is weak but its still pretty cheap to import shitty good from shitholes.

>>55542121
>HomeDepot and Lowes parking lots full
Didn't both Home Depot and Lowes have underwhelming earnings and warn of a consumer slow down?
>Walmart and every grocery store parking lots full
Grocery stores were busy during the 2008 GFC too, people need food. We're not going to see some 1930 great depression food struggle
>Plumbers, electricians, HVAC, and every other trade completely booked
Because the housing market is frozen so everyone is piling into new construction projects. The builders give a discount on the mortgage to incentive people looking for a house. This creates a lot of demand for the trades, but doesn't mean the housing market is strong
>Remodeling contractors booked up a year in advance
Same issue as above, housing inventory is low and people will buy whatever they can and renovate it. Home owners that want to sell can't because they'll lose their mortgage, so the market is stuck
>Restaurants having record traffic
People don't know or want to cook anymore and are dependent on food away from home. They prioritize their spending there. I think this is a cultural change and even in a deep recession we'd see a lot of busy restaurants/fast food places
>Every house that goes on the market is sold at or above asking price within one week
As stated above this is because housing inventory is very low because mortgages rates are high. People can't sell their house because it would mean giving up their low rate mortgage. This has kept housing prices high and competitive, but it doesn't mean the housing market is strong
>PS5 and Nintendo Switchs are sold out everywhere and video games are making record sales.
I just went to bestbuy.com and there are both PS5s and Switches available to buy right now. You might be thinking of 2020-2021 when there were electronic shortages

None of the above convinced me that the economy is booming. I think the bullish stock market has created the narrative that everyone is doing great but thats true at all.

>>55537840
If we killed everybody who worked for central banks, there is no question that the entire planet would be substantially better off.

If you had the means, threatening a central banker with death should he not stop destroying the economy, or simply smashing the cunts skull in with a rock would make no practical difference.

Total CBDC death.

>>55537840
We have entered the clown timeline a few years ago, expect things to go up to unimagineable figures before the inevitable collapse

>>55537864
We're talking about real life markets, not your digital poker chips. Fuck off back to your crypto tranny threads

>>55537840
It's called "The Wall of Worry" that markets always climb. What is already discounted is what matters. Unless unemployment shoots up > 6%, expect more of the same level of economic growth, hence earnings growth, hence market gains.
A lot of the stuff you listed is not a big deal for the economy. The world is always fucked up, but is it fucked up enough that Apple doesn't sell iPhones?

>>55542430
>None of the above convinced me that the economy is booming. I think the bullish stock market has created the narrative that everyone is doing great but thats true at all.
This. Some people are insanely naive to think the stock market represents a general economy. Even the inflationary numbers that are used by the fed are calculated in a sneaky way.
>Everything pumps 10x during rona and the money printer
>Zero correction
>CPI data in 2023 is a "soft" 3%

Not to mention, the figures that actually matter to most people, being housing and food, are always coming in hot every single report. You have the rest of the basket like energy which drags down the general average, taking people's attention away from the still giga inflated assets.

>>55542615
on what fucking board do you think you are, you retarded imbecile?

>>55537840
Price to earnings average is 55x and some companies are even trading st 80x REVENUE.

Market is fake and gay. Impending collapse. Stop buying tech faggotry. Buy commodities, emerging markets, and gold. If you don't understand you're a dumb fuck anyways and produce nothing worthwhile so your financial devastation is probably a societal benefit.

>>55538476
The inflation RATE is at 3% moron. It went up 9% last year.

>>55541359
Not to mention that they changed the way cpi was calculated at the beginning of the year and nobody paid attention and everybody forgot.

You're all deluded faggots and you're going to lose everything. By the time comes September this market will have crashed 30%

>>55541359
>>55541485
If you think that those baby little catalysts we saw last year were the entire "event" You got another thing coming. That was just the start.

4 of the largest bank failures in US history last year all bigger than the entire 2008 collapse. This is just getting started.

You really thought it was going to be that painless? Just a little pee pee? Lol.

Fucking morons.

>>55537883
This
>>55541287
Also this. It's why I never talk with normies about economics. They just don't get it and will drown in the coming hyperinflation, so no use drowning with them. The recession is over and soon we crash upwards.

>>55542931
>>55542948
>>55542964
>>55542983

Yes it feels very odd. The interest rate is the biggest factor, it's spooky that the market can seemingly take it so well after having a decade to get used to debt being almost free. And look at the yield curve inversion too. So many things right now have never happened in modern economic history. Feels like something needs to snap.

>>55543095
>it's spooky that the market can seemingly take it so well after having a decade to get used to debt being almost free
The lag for interest rate policy to hit the economy is extra long this cycle. The duration of debt has been increasing for a long and become much longer after the 2020 crash. Companies took out big loans for long durations to take advantage of the low rates. If the Fed keeps rates high for years like they've said then eventually the effects will hit hard and everything will have to be repriced

>>55537840
Cathie Woods might be early, but she is not wrong.
Things are starting to compound, we will see real productivity growth, in the face of real progress what does the interest rate matter? what does commercial real estate matter?
it matters little..

>>55543278
>in the face of real progress what does the interest rate matter? what does commercial real estate matter?
I think this is a narrative created by the stock market's rapid move and not reality. I've yet to see proof of how things like LLMs will lead to the parabolic earnings growth that the market now expects. LLMs and generative AI have been around for a while but no one was getting euphoric about it until it became trendy. When the market pulls back this narrative will suddenly disappear and people will be convinced that "AI" doesn't matter. Suddenly things like interest rates and commercial real estate will matter again

>>55542931
>>55542948
>>55542964
>>55542983
>Making 4 posts in a row that amount to "My feelings tell me the future"
Holy schizo

>>55537840
Just look at the dollar, you stupid fuck. Wait til people realize these companies ( their 401k) are just as worthless.

>>55543408
vs WHAT? gold? price is steady. oil? oil price FELL. other currencies? DXY is stupid high vs historical average. dollar vs fucking what

>>55541359
>Apparently moving fast enough means the market doesn't have time to catch up
FED rate hikes always has delayed effect months or years after. Asian Financial Crisis 1997 started from 1995 FED rate hikes.
This is still in the midst of the year, let's see how it goes in later half of this year.

>>55543424
Brics? Gold... Companies that actually make things (none here)

>>55542983
>>55542964
>>55542948
>>55542931
This poster is either a fed or a bot, ignore him. Stay invested and don't miss out on the golden bullrun, never bet against America.

>>55537840
They can pump it to astronomical levels before the US economy collapses. They will not let it fall for decades. People can be standing around 80 homeless and think everything is fine. The 80 homeless will see what they consider normal and turning inward blame themselves. Bread and circus.

i have 7kcad in the snownigger version of this

>>55537840
>Inflation
Priced in
>Recession fear at ATH
Priced in
>Unemployment rising
Actually it's 3.6% which is lower than it was almost the entirety of Trump's presidency which you guys suck off.
>Fastest rate hikes ever
To fight inflation and it's been princed it.
>Commercial real estate about to crash
Sure.
>Regional banking crisis
Small banks don't matter. It's actually beneficial for the big banks to buy them up or have costumer transfer to them.
>Geopolitical risk at local ATHs
Last year, yes. Not anymore.

...

>Market does a small 10% dip then goes straight back to ATH and beyond
It was actually 25% from top to bottom for about a year straight. Which is about the range of a down turn market cycle.

>>55544018
People have already accepted the prices increases from high inflation and normalized being poorer. If the bear market isn't over everyone will be screwed as their investments fade away and the cost of living continues to rise. Stock market giga euphoria is holding the whole thing together

>>55537840
I dunno. Something doesn't feel right with it.

Market gigapumping because "oh rate hikes are over". Even though the companies that are gigapumping are absolute trash and don't make money.

>>55538120
Reverse repo means people are parking cash at the Fed you nugget.

>>55544074
It's a speculative bubble. The SVB bailout emboldened the market to take on crazy risk and price in QE/ZIRP stimulus before a recession even happens
>>55544055
>the return of QE/ZIRP stimulus
Priced in. That should scare the hell out of bulls. The market is priced for perfection

it's too big to fall

>>55544109
>>55544061
This poster is a fed or a bot. These "bearish" posters glow so hard.

when will you losers admit THE MARKET IS GOING HIGHER. it cannot be stopped. we're about to enter a new bull, the bull of all bulls. only once we've pumped 5x from here will we see a catastrophic crash and the end of the everything bubble

we're in the endgame and you have one shot left to make it or be broke and destitute your whole fuckin life

>>55542615
>real life markets
pic related

>>55537840
P R I C E D I N
R
I
C
E
D
I
N

>>55537840
Doesn’t the FED pivot usually break something in the economy and then that’s when the market nukes.

Ive been accumulating alts for the last year but I wouldn’t be surprised that we dump again when the S&P500 does.

>>55537840
A dollar is a worthless piece of paper. As long as you measure value in it nothing makes sense.

>>55543139
>The lag for interest rate policy to hit the economy is extra long this cycle.

> Fed tightens money supply
> banks go bankrupt
> Fed loosens money supply for those banks

Its a manipulated market, targetted bailouts to transfer money to investment vehicles and away from wagearners.


> If the Fed keeps rates high
When they raise rates with their left hand & hand out free cash with their right, did they really raise rates?

>>55537840
news rhymes with jews and with the jews you lose

I'm betting on a flash crash later this year, student loan repayments resume/credit crunch = deflation = rates to 0 = fastest recovery in history

>>55537840
No, anons, keep holding cash or get physical silver!!!! Mega super duper ultra greatest depression is coming!!!!! Reeeeeeeee!!!!!

>>55544567
>student loan repayments resume
Student loan repayments will never resume. Biden already said there will be a 12 month grace period and by the end of it they will have figured out a way to cancel student loans
>When they raise rates with their left hand & hand out free cash with their right, did they really raise rates?
Yes but the effect is more muted because banks know the Fed will support them. Therefore they are more willing to lend out money. But higher rates still reduce credit creation

>>55542902
>on what fucking
ESL JEET sighted

>>55537840
It makes sense, there was a lot of money floating around, inflation made bonds unattractive so excess cash went into stock market, big tech was in a position to cut useless niggers and trannies from it's workforce so it got a majority of the dollars. If yields don't drop because inflation has been defeated and it's safe to take profit and park cash, and it doesn't snap back violently after student loans get defaulted on then it won't make sense

>>55543391
Not my feelings dumb fuck. 55 times price to earnings. I hope you lose everything you have. I'll buy your shit on the cheap.

>>55541561
JPM says could crash by 20%
Also says buy AMD with a 500 p/e ratio and 50 forward p/e.
The fact that you project bull while focusing on bearish media to me means you have bags on the line but know they are about to get real heavy yet don't want to give them up because you've pinned to many hopes on them.

>>55545071
>I hope you lose everything you have. I'll buy your shit on the cheap.
You're acting like a hysterical, emotional woman. Every post you make is just your feelings. Quit being a bitch and see reality.

>>55537895
This post reeks of low IQ

>>55537840
doesnt matter

line / number will go up

>>55544131
Mumus are niggers. Wrong about everything but fail upwards.
>Wrong about banks going under
>Wrong about June pivot being priced in
>Simultaneously believes inflation is good for the stock market but also bad for the stock market
>Simultaneously believes high unemployment good because another pivot will be priced in, but also low unemployment good because economy strong
The reality is MuNigs don't understand anything except most companies don't go bankrupt so even if you are wrong about everything you won't lose everything and can always just make up self aggrandizing reasons for things after the fact

>>55538036
>high growth
Where lol? Just tells me a hard landing is coming as soon as something breaks

>>55538064
They won't cut rates until inflation is reversed or something breaks
If the market is good and job reports are good inflation won't stay low for long

>>55541561
What cheapies, you fucking cretin? Everything is overpriced vaporwave trash.
Only undervalued things on earth are silver and mercury.

>>55545272
>What cheapies, you fucking cretin?
Nooooo you don't understand NVidea is worth x220 P/E - AI is the future!

>>55544170
How are commodities doing?
Cyclicals?
The stock market outside of megacaps?
I won't feel bad when people get rugged by bigger players, it happens every time

>>55537840
Markets are forward-looking.

Doom & Gloom is for retail & crypto fear.

>>55544567
Flash crashes occur from unknown events.

The student is known, too well known. (As in, you must pay it back faggot)

>>55545350
And how will they pay it back?
>students will liquidate their cars, mortgages, assets, and holdings to pay denbts
Probably not the bag pumping event you expect it to be kek

>>55545238
>simultaneously
It's a bubble where every narrative is twisted to feed the bubble
>>55545240
>Where lol?
The stock market is expecting parabolic earnings growth starting in 2024 because of the expectation of a more dovish Fed. In the same moment the stock market says that rates don't matter because the economy is so strong. There's no logic to it, it's just a bubble that wants to expand and will find any reason to do so
>Just tells me a hard landing is coming as soon as something breaks
The moment the stock market breaks it's over. Turbo euphoria is holding everything up and it's manifested most clearly in the stock market. In this timeline the stock market will lead the rest of the economy and set the tone

>>55537840
markets are pricing in hyper inflation

There is a shitload of money sloshing around

Coinbase pumped and so did xrp today

We are pumping because fed looks likely to cut again soon, the party is back again

Bears are fucked

>>55537840
It makes perfect sense
stock price is the reflection of FUTURE SITUATION, the expectation, not the CURRENT one. It's priced in already,
That's why when it's bearish, keep accumulating and DCA so you don't miss out on these surprise "doesn't make any sense" bullish shit.

>>55545802
>We are pumping because fed looks likely to cut again soon
Powell has repeatedly said they don't expect to be heading towards 2% inflation until 2025. He said he's expecting to hold rates high for years.
If the Fed is forced to cut this year or next it's because we entered a deflationary crisis. That's not bullish for stocks

>>55537840
We're about to have death of USD and WW3, nothing matters. Max incompetency and clownomics right now.

>>55545802
>Bears are fucked
2 more weeks

>>55542225
>4. Gas and oil contracts have not fully adjusted yet. Not sure how invrstors will react to that when they see a shock increase in maintenance/variable costs.

Do you think oil companies will take a temporary hit soon?

Just wait til the next round of earnings reports coming up for all the big caps. Big time reality check.

>>55546052
Doesn't matter. The market has so much money on the sidelines we pump on any good news

Inflation looked to be less than expected? Pump. Any good news at all? Pump

This is the market now

>>55546753
>Doesn't matter
Exactly, all news is converted into fuel for the bubble. It's not based on reality. At first you said the market as pumping because the Fed will cut soon. This is ridiculous because the Powell has repeatedly said that will not happen. Then you said it doesn't matter because all news is good news.
The bullish narrative changes every 5 minutes. It's a fantasy land bubble delirium that keeps spreading

>>55546789
>this is ridiculous
It's not at all, inflation has come in lower and market is already getting excited.

The job of the market is to be ahead of the news and they largely are.

Just read the news: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/global-bonds-rally-as-traders-bet-rates-are-close-to-peaking

I knew the bottom was in when clowns on this board were claiming shit like TSLA plunging under $100 back in the fall. There were multiple threads a day with anons asking if they should buy Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon lows and they were told by a chorus of mongoloids not to.

Doomers are the biggest chumps of all since 2008. Perpetually wrong, sky is falling retards who literally talk people out of a historical bull market full of easy money. The far right political views cloud their view of the real market and economically with disastrous consequences.

But oh, surely this time is different, right? America will never be able to find its way out of a little inflation post pandemic/Ukraine war and Russia will nuke Switzerland or whatever triggering WWIII.

It's almost sick how much money you can make doing the complete opposite of what doomers and permabears advise between worshipping the orange asshole or spamming another nails on chalkboard speech by that granola faggot, RFK.

>>55546829
>It's not at all, inflation has come in lower and market is already getting excited.
disinflation/deflation is bearish for stocks, nothing to get excited about. Wage growth will remain high while prices stay flat. That means less profit for companies
If we have a sudden inflation resurgence that will also be bullish for stocks because it means better earnings (rising prices outpace rising wages). See what I mean? Both sides can be used for a bullish narrative and that's what the market is doing now.

>>55546074
TWO MORE WEEKS

>>55546945
You don’t get it at all dude.

Reduced inflation=higher chance of rate cut=bullish stock valuations

Reduced inflation=less pressure for wage growth increases (wage growth has only been necessary because inflation gains recently)=good for corporate earnings

Bears are fucked, there is no need to be upset

>>55546987
To put it better:

reduced inflation=higher chance rates have peaked=bullish stocks

bobos say the same things everyday every year they never stop. i wonder if they are mentally ill.

>>55541514
People look at this chart and unironically don’t see we are in the beginning of a 25 year cyclical washout like 2000.

>>55537987
You’re not even explaining your positions you stupid person.

>>55539336
Fuck you.

>>55541546
Guns and ammo.

>>55537840
>A BULL MARKET CLIMBS A WALL OF WORRY
>A BEAR MARKET DESCENDS A WALL OF HOPE

Just you posting your bullshit hand wringing is a buy signal

>>55547250
A wise Jew with a really hooked nose and small eye spacing with crooked lips and thick eyebrows told me that

>>55537840
Small caps are the play right now, OP. Imagining myself purchasing KREST and receiving another token airdrop. I'll show up at my ex's party tonight to celebrate.

>>55541427
Wakeup Anon. With Eloop, I can own a fraction of Tesla & benefit from its revenue stream. This is the future, Fag.

>>55541779
I don't give a damn about market atm, Anon. COZ I felt that Car-sharing revenue supported by PEAQ could be a first step to mainstream adoption of Web3 in the enterprise. I sleep peacefully, Anon.

>>55544993
Nta but you just outed yourself as the esl nigger.

>>55538120
The fed isn't going to lower rates for a while.

>>55537840
Every bearish thing already happened

Every man and his dog is already maximally bearish

There is nobody left to buy your bags of fiat

>>55537840
>Inflation
3%
>Recession fear at ATH
No it's not
>Unemployment rising
No it's not
>Fastest rate hikes ever
Good+current rates are nothing
>Commercial real estate about to crash
Says increasingly nervous man 16th time this year
>Regional banking crisis
Happened months ago
>Geopolitical risk at local ATHs
Ukraine is a nothingburger

>>55547444
Chek'd and rek'd

>>55537840
line always goes up longterm

>>55537840
Sell while you can

>>55537840
Check out Raoul Pal's Thesis on liquidity levels being heavily correlated with market values. TLDR is every time central banks debase currency the extra liquidity ends up in the markets propping up prices. More dollars chasing the same basket of finite assets.

>>55537840
>op thinks only chatgpt date is 2 years behind.

>>55546987
>Reduced inflation=higher chance of rate cut=bullish stock valuations
Only if the Fed actually does cut, which they won't until the labor market cracks. So instead we'll be left with restrictive real yields. Additionally, if rates don't matter for stocks during this run up, why would they matter when they're cut? This time is different. Also "bullish stock valuations" from rate cuts are already priced in.
>Reduced inflation=less pressure for wage growth increases
Wage growth is already outpacing goods pricing. The 2020-2021 bullrun was pushed higher because goods prices rose a lot faster than wage growth. Now the opposite is occurring, meaning higher costs for companies or more layoffs
>Bears are fucked, there is no need to be upset
Bulls are at peak euphoria and delusion. All of the arguments you made can easily be twisted to suit a bearish narrative. Price action creates the narrative. If the market pulls back 10% I guarantee the same narratives will be used from a bearish perspective.

>>55549313
>Bulls are at peak euphoria and delusion.
Nice projection, the majority of market participants are still bearish, which is why we keep pumping.

>>55538139
Weimarboos are so retarded. The US isn't printing trillions to simply send over seas like the Weimar did. Domestic spending on gov budgets isn't the same effect as foreign repayments.
>>55537840
None of these are as serious as you think except inflation. And that one is being fixed currently.

>>55549628
>The US isn't printing trillions to simply send over seas like the Weimar did
He doesn't know about bonds.

>>55549552
>the majority of market participants are still bearish
Comically banks were actually saying that at the very peak in 2021. It seems to be a constant theme

>>55549678
The market only moves to cause maximum pain, and it goes up the majority of the time. Based on this information we can conclude the majority of the market is indeed bearish the majority of the time. There are sometimes brief periods where the majority of positions shift bearish, but they are as uncommon as downturns.

>>55549690
I think maximum pain right now is lower yields because it means no more bank failures and Fed liquidity injections. Just a slow reduction of the Fed's balance sheet as the economy slows along with it. No new is bad news for bulls. Bulls need a black swan event to get the money printer going

>>55544087
Repo - Repurchase agreement - A bank loans collateral to the fed and receives cash in return for a short duration (normally overnight)
Reverse repo - The opposite of the above - Banks park cash in the fed overnight or for a short duratiion
This anon is correct

>>55537883
Chris Waller of the Fed said today that they'll probably do 2 more .25bps hikes, one in July and one in September.

ATH in dollar value
but what is the actual value of a dollar?
ponder that
real inflation has been in the 20% range for 3 years in a row

>>55538036
as long as nothing changes and everything continues on a completely predictable path, then we should be totally fine!
https://rielpolitik.com/2021/07/07/gladio-from-event-201-to-cyber-polygon-the-wefs-simulation-of-a-coming-cyber-pandemic/

retards.

>>55538128
>>55537895
you are ignoring the simple fact that statistics can be made to lie. they can be made to sing, even. and every one of your points rests on economic analysis based on egregious lies, smoke and mirrors.
>we adjusted
who is "we," anon? because i look at my country and see people pushed to the breaking point. my city has homeless encampments now that didn't exist even a year ago.

>>55549552
Wouldn't stocks rising while trading at half the average volume indicate bullish sentiment

it's just going to go up forever, what could possibly go wrong

>>55549784
Simply saying "statistics lie" without a context or proof is the same as saying "I don't like this stats so it is lying".

"The unemployment rate not including people who are not working, just those who are looking for jobs, and every job available is a shit mcdonalds job who barely pays" is a argument that is held strong.

Also, stocks are up because the fucking business are more profitable as ever. Everything that people complain about the current zeitgeist can be explained by "this benefits corporations".

>>55541232
>>55545192
>>55549784
>>55547202
wow
thanks for the (you)'s
keep being scared, it's really gonna help

>>55549994
>stocks are up because the fucking business are more profitable as ever
Future earnings growth expectations are as high as ever. But right now we are in an earnings recession

>stocks up
>yields up
>vix up

>>55537840
Stock market represents the top 1%. They’ve only gotten richer since covid

>>55549628
It’s even worse, that domestic spending is literally welfare consumption and theft.

>>55549653
Bonds bring money back to the US bud. That's why China complained and didn't want the fed to raise too fast. Why would people invest overseas when you get 5% risk free at the fed? Raising rates brings capital back. Hence the usd was rising so much lately.

>>55550150
That's not worse at all. The money still stays in the system so it's not a big deal. Welfare is just consumer spending anyway. It's not leaving the system like in Weimar.

>>55542225
>2 jobs available for each employed
every fed post itt is more retarded than the one before

>>55550064

The majority of working class America has some kind of retirement in the stock market

>>55543932
>>55543391
>>55543072
oy vey

>>55550179
>it's the schizo

>>55550153
>Bonds bring back money back to the US
So it does affect the domestic market?

>>55537840
>people got a second job to combat higher prices + keeps unemployment low
>stock market already corrected last December
>other shit

Basically the middle class is being sacrificed to keep banks and the stock market from crashing. If we need pressure release the fed can just raise interest rates and throw a bunch of faggots out on the street jobless for awhile so they don’t spend

>>55550318
Yes it does that's not what I said. I said it's not money leaving the market like In Weimar. Weimar printed money and then sent it overseas as repayments. The fed isn't doing that.

>>55550791
The whole point of having a reserve currency is that you can export inflation (to some degree). Most USD is held overseas. Yeah, there's no reparations to pay but long-term you get the same result.

>>55537895
unemployment is continuing, go to layoffs.fyi or w/e its called. no one has adjusted to inflatiion when theyre card maxxing and student loans are resuming. look at CC utilization charts and no one has formally acknowledged recession so low IQ's definitely dont realize it

>>55537883
More dollars inbound for sure. 100% confirmed.
>>55537840
This system needs 0% interest rates. It needs ZIRP. unfortunately because of inflation I dont think the banks will ever be able to actually get rates down to 0%.
Yeah i literally think there will be so much upward pressure as the fed tries QE to push the target band down that we are unable to get down below 2% effectively.
even just 2% Fed Funds destroys the system lmfao, it's just a question of time.
The market is on a knife's edge so long as we do not have ZIRP, that means something is coming.
People are unable to cope with 5-7%. DO NOT PAY ATTENTION to some bullshit metric in the economy that tells you Americans are fine at this level of fed funds, this is a massive contraction.
It will be reflected soon in the numbers more widely.
You want to own quality, no matter what happens. IF you want to gamble by owning treasuries or dollars, own the front end of the curve, 13 week tbills.
Stay agile guys, good luck.

Y'all realize that the US government Plunge Protection Team actively manipulates the market? It isn't even a secret. The market is openly, actively rigged. By the government. Of course favored actors like JPM manipulate markets as well.

>>55537840
Has it ever made any sense?

>muh market
90% of this market is owned by 10% of investors. Stop acting like this is based on reality.

>>55537840
Perhaps you shouldn't read all your news on /pol/.

>>55542615
You realize that bobo is just the pepe version of a bear market right? Which comes from traditional capital markets?

>>55545350
But the money still has to come from somewhere. If the government started garnishing paychecks then TONS of companies that are owed money are fucked. And everyone is over leveraged right now, especially if they’ve bought anything in the last year