/biz/ - Business & Finance

the canadian dollar sucks

Canada is hell on Earth, Toronto is the epicenter.

>>55508659
Canada can't raise rates, if they continue to raise rates they'll destroy the real estate market. All Canadian's wealth, and large swaths of several provinces economies is real estate. When the US raises rates, it boosts the USDs value against CAD. But again, Canada cannot raise rates, so CAD will be sacrificed to save its real estate market. the Fed will likely raise US rates 0.25 this month, and the market is pricing in another 0.25 later this year.
>T. Canadian with all 250k account in USD.

>>55509388
also this.

>>55509391
oh, and if you weren't aware the reason raising rates will crash canada's real estate market , its because its already a bubble, look at the real estate crisis, no one can afford a home. Then if they raise the interest rates no one will be able to afford a new mortgage, or their existing mortgage. Buyers dry up, so prices fall, people nets worth's down the toilet and they're underwater on the asset they had no choice but to overpay for. The wealth effect goes in reverse. Politicians can't allow that. So, no rate hikes, USD hikes and crushes CAD.

>>55509430
>people nets worth's down the toilet
If it's a bubble then they didn't have this net worth to start with. It's the same with the stock market - if every owner decides to sell and all the houses change hands the resulting price is the "fair" price.

>>55509471
>It's the same with the stock market
I meant that it's the same with the stock market where the stock price doesn't reflect the real value that company or its CEO can get by selling their stocks.

>>55508659
I'm 90% btc 9%bayhorse kek 1% cad for food/gas/gym membership. I guess that makes me 99% short cad.
t. North vancouverite

>>55509499
I don't know any fiat that keeps or increases its value, so it is only sensible to use it for the only thing it is good for - exchange it for services and goods.

>>55509471
all that matters is the perceived value, the book value of a home is like 80k. but if you paid a million dollars for your shit shack in Toronto, took out a loan, the market crashes and you can't sell it for 400k, you got fucked. and that loan isn't going anywhere. and the interest is going up. fixed rate is only 5 years, tick tock. No to mention if you took out a HELOC on your home? Fair value doesn't exist, only market price. They had this, now they have that. don't care to argue further, all together irrelevant to USD CAD discussion at hand.

>>55509388
I grew up in a white neighborhood in north Toronto in the 90's and have watched it become overrun firsthand

>>55509430
So no rate hikes, CAD gets crushed and real estate bubble grows even further and becomes even more affordable leading to the same conclusion anyway.

>>55508659
Going to zero like other fiat, zoom out

>>55508659
>Will the CAD hit 0.80 USD like it did five years ago?
Nigga CAD used to be higher than the USD. You gotta thank Trudeau for that. Voting is a joke in Canada, even at his lowest fucking approval rating he still managed to keep his power during a snap election.

>>55509687
yes, housing market will come down by some miracle of policy, expansion of housing, or we'll be getting 90 year variable mortgages like the news articles are saying. But CAD will be crushed if our central bank doesn't raise rates while the US fed continues to hike.

>>55509687
Yes, either supply of houses goes up, or the demand for them comes down. By way of some miracle policy, crash, or massive build out. the other alternative is we get 70-90 year variable rate mortgages like some of the recent news articles are saying. In any case, yes. If the US continues to hike, and the Canadian central bank doesn't follow suit the CAD will get crushed vs USD.

>>55509388
Only if you are white male, as a Chinese/East Indian chad I get white pussy on demand and access to all the top tier 300k/year jobs.

>>55509430
Politicians don't run the BoC

>>55509800
Only Anglo whites get cucked.

>>55509767
My bet is that houses will be considered "anti-green" and heavily taxed, so it will become a luxury.
The crappy apartments a la commie blocks is what I would expect from the ESG compliant government.

>>55509391
Normally yes. But with 500k-1million immigrants a year that won't happen. The BoC can raise rates another 25 basis in July and maybe once more in 2023 and the real estate market in the GTA, Vancouver and other large markets may stagnate but will still trend up. Smaller markets may suffer and correct another 10-20% but won't crash lower than that.

Its really a damned if you do damned if you don't for the Canadian economy. What keeps it even more in limbo is they may start giving 50+ year mortgages instead of letting mortgage holders default.

I dont care, I just wanna know if I should convert 130k into USD now or wait until later this year. I'll be investing in a US franchise next spring.

>>55509814
boomers and politicians have too much of their wealth tied to their home value. even in places like vancouver or toronto which are considered >muh walkable livable cities the majority of the housing supply within the city limits is a single family home. there will never be a hongkong/singapore style of real estate in this country. people will vote to block it because it will destroy their net worth.

>>55509430
I get what you're saying, but if they don't raise rates and CAD falls, that inflation will hit the boomers.
The boomers are the electoral kingmakers.
The BoC are incompetent and yet there will be huge problems because somebody has to lose.
Who loses is a political decision.

>>55509812
Canada already paused hikes in January, and the BoC is controlled by a board of directors, elected by the governor in council, the governor general( on recommendation by the prime minister, then appointed by the monarchy( so basically appointed by Trudie)) acting on the advice of the cabinet(the federal gov). Its murky... but It's basically controlled by the fed.

I see the usual fallacies in this thread
1. The BoC don't set rates, historically they have always stayed close to the Fed
2. Yes boomers like high house prices, but as savers they also like high interest rates and they *hate* inflation
They might just sacrifice housing, perhaps raising rates and trying to shore up demand by boosting immigration, which won't work.
I think housing is going to tank.

>>55509866
At this point it's not even incompetence.
Every move the BoC can make is bad.

Raise rates-lower inflation marginally, cost of living still to high. Lower house prices a bit, still unaffordable. Raise mortgage rates, make life unaffordable and default on your home or take a 90 year variable slave mortgage. CAD$ may increase.

Keep rates the same or lower them-Houses prices keep increasing with immigration, no normal person can afford a house ever again. Inflation of goods and services continue to rise. CAD$ lowers against USD$.

It's a sinking ship, I just want to know if I should rush to put my money in USD or wait until after the BoC announcement next week.

>>55509866
>>55509860
>>55509767
>>55509569
>>55509430
>>55509391
>>55509488
>>55509499
I wonder when people will consider that if they try to cut rates, which involves printing money and buying bonds with that tranche of new inflation, bondholders will sell because of negative returns, and that will push rates higher.
They may lose control of interest rates this year, which means we start monetizing the deficits and the bond market simultaneously. That would be hyperinflation.
The Banks are also able to think for themselves outside of pricing according to the 10 year yields. They don't need to push off 7-8%.

>>55509895
Housing prices will be kept high with ridiculously low supply and an insane number of immigrants, we're talking gaining 1/40th of your population a year, almost adding a new Mississauga a year. Housing will be prohibitedly expensive on purpose.

>>55509905
All supermarkets in Quebec changed to electronic price tags this year, they clearly anticipate further price changes

>>55509905
So what does the BoC do? Obviously they can't cut this year but will they raise or hold?

>>55509905
also keep in mind that in high population areas of the country like toronto/vancouver/montreal they already werent even building 1 home per 10 people for the past decade. piling in 1mill+people per year and still not building homes is just making the rich politicians richer.

>>55509902
That's because Canada already fucked up.
All your houses are not worth the time vs the median wage. There is no fixing this, the errors already happened.
I'd like to to driving a car towards a cliff at speed. At some point it's too late to stop. What then? Hit the brakes anyway? Or put the radio on? It doesn't matter.
I know the one thing no Canadian wants to hear: create more value through endeavor.

>>55509905
BoC will raise rates.
Banks will stop lending.
Possible capital controls?
Immigration is becoming a hot topic politically, they won't be able to push it much more.
Especially when unemployment goes higher.

>>55509949
I know man. I'm getting out and wanna know when I should convert my money. Moat economists are saying the CAD$ will trend up vs the USD$ over 2023 but I'm worried the BoC will fuck it up.

>>55509918
>insane number of immigrants, we're talking gaining 1/40th of your population a year, almost adding a new Mississauga a year
Aren't most of of them heading over to USA after that? I thought Canada was a waste sorting plant where trash is deported, recyclable parts are exported to USA and not-good-not-terrible people stay in Canada.

>>55509973
Hard to say.
I have a low opinion on Canadian competency.
You have a lot of nepotism in school admissions so I suspect your BoC group probably aren't very good. Carney was an absolute twat.
It's therefore hard to anticipate their actions.
My suspicion is they will raise rates because they think Canada has a real economy with real pricing signals.

>>55509499
what's it like living with chinks and sand niggers (iranians)?

>>55509988
No, these are legal immigrants. That's right, 1 million legal immigrants a year in a country of 40 million and less houses than a state likes Cali or Texas. We dont know how many illegals come and stay, I suspect not many since it's so so easy to legally come. Probably 20-30k illegals come over with half of those trying to go to the states.

>>55510155
He doesn't mean illegals.
Many immigrants get Canadian citizenship so they can then get a better USA visa and move there.
Unless they are average in their job, then they remain.
As I understand it many Indians in tech do this.

What’s the play here? I have European and USA citizenship and I’m trying to leave this fucking shithole of a country. Meat inflated by like 50% over the last 5 years yet they’re trying to say inflation was 2%. Canadians are fucking retarded tho and they’ll just keep taking it up the ass until it’s too late. Where do I restart my life?

Btc and cad flipped bullish last month.
50k and 80 cents will take many months to grind out, but I think those are possible targets before any crisis and usd rallies again

I've been completely offside - 110k in usdc and 1 btc I bought average at 20k

>>55510392
Take the cyberpunk pill: your status is decided by your job more than the country you reside in. Follow the money and get into the largest and most powerful transnational corporations.

>>55510418
So let's say 80c is the upside, what's the downside? Bigger.
The OP dude should just cash out at 75c
Look at what happened to GBP. The UK population is 70mm not 40mm like Canada.

>>55510037
I spend most of my time in the river during the summer and snowboarding in the winter. I don't spend much time around them thankfully. It's easy to avoid browns if you don't work minimum wage and the Asians aren't too bad.

>>55509971
>Immigration is becoming a hot topic politically, they won't
lol
lmao
kek even
If America can't even fix its shit because the one president in decades who tried (Drumpf) literally got couped by glowies after 4 years of nonstop "cheeto Hitler" propaganda, what the fuck makes you think Canada would be able to do any better?

>>55509922
>>55509928
>>55509944
>>55509971
If they attempt to lower the interest rates artificially while we are in an inflationary environment, or even if we are now at 2%, the bond market will not react the same way, people will hit that bid and jump out as the government gives them the gift of high bonds and an artificial buyer. This means higher monetization at a faster rate than the market is pricing in.
Nobody is realizing that this is all about the interest rates in a world where the bond market does not cooperate. In Japan they will throw you into the ocean if you're a pension fund manager and you threaten to dump but in the USA... they will need to purchase the bond market in its entirety. That is 24 Trillion + of holders right now. The long bonds are going to shoot up. In Canada the BoC will have enormous pressure because we are one of the most leveraged countries out there, but if the americans print we are likely to print, this is not 2008, we will follow them into devaluation.
You cannot take your home with you if things are uncertain and they are about to become uncertain 50%+ of the population of this country in most prvinces works for the government either in municipal, provincial or federal level.
Immigrants are already going back to economies that are less distorted by a runaway credit market, it is inevitable that we see a contraction in the population, nobody is accounting for that, even in a short term scenario (long term Canada is very resource rich you could mint billionaires and trillionaires by just bottling up the water lying around everywehre) but we have social and political problems.
Full stop that makes the problem unworkable we need to restart.
You need physical assets and near liquid alternatives that are big Canadian exports.
Canada just ran a trade surplus despite Ottawa's best efforts. There will be big problem with wealth inequality perception as the real value of real estate declines. Boomers feel rich because of HELOC.

>>55509866
cad falling against the indian rupee is a good thing. aslong as 500k new immigrants flow in per year we can raise rates just as much as america

>55509800
>as a Chinese/East Indian chad
couldn't decide which race to pick, so he went with both lmao

>>55509813
coping frog detected. You've gotten cucked harder than any other group there.

The more Canada doesn't look good, the better it is. Accelerate

>>55509800
>as a Chinese/East Indian chad

No amount of money would make me switch to bug/poo genetic.

>>55512513
The avg savings of a new immigrant is $45k, they spend half on relocation.
The meme that immigrants are bringing in big bucks is a lie for people who believe everything they read.

>>55508659
Im longing loonies in this time.
Clown world CAN get more ridiculous

>>55511039
The key point is BoC cannot monetize until the Fed do.
The BoC are not driving.
Now also consider the avg mortgage term in the USA is far, far longer.
This means the USA can hold rates higher, for longer, with less pain.
The duration between now and a Fed pivot is highly likely to blow up Canada.

>>55512797
Agreed, but the component of this next round of QE that people are not expecting is the bond market selling off because it realizes that it's now or never to sell to an artificial buyer and get out while bonds are high and the future value of those payments gets destroyed by inflation.
The interest rates are going to want to go up and if the central banks fight that they will be printing money constantly to lower yeilds.

>>55508659
cad is a slushfund for longterm forexhedging by the us
really, the whole country is a backpocket for rich americans and the cia psyopping dumb asians into investing in soon to be worthless real estate

>>55512577
80 of Quebec yearly budget is transfers from Cuckberta to guarantee they split the vote at the federal elections. If you think this doesn't impact the value of your joke l;oonie, idk what to tell you, chuck.
Who's cucking who, cuckie?

how do you cash out in Canada ?
anyone know a good OTC place

>>55513511
You should use more meme words to make your point, whatever it is.

>>55512797
>The duration between now and a Fed pivot is highly likely to blow up Canada.
Do you have anything to back up this claim? Why would a guy in a thread on a forum know this while the rest of Canada who evaded 2008 completely not know this?

Fuck off honestly, just a bunch of smart sounding words from the other hoard of stupid people on this site who know nothing.

>>55509734
we lost par in like 2015

>>55514224
Typical Canadian right there.
> Why is nearly everyone saying the opposite?
Because most people are stupid.
Canadians have watched their only home go higher. They pay higher property taxes, their kids are fucked, GDP per capita is fucked, the "everyone is going to downsize" meme is retarded, grocery inflation is nuts, healthcare collapses.
You think they're smart?

whos ready for he hike on Wednesday
can't wait to hear my coworkers cry at 10am

>>55510447
Ok, I've got 38k in cash rn that I'm gonna put in a USD account later this week after the BoC raises rates, hopefully the 1 CAD is worth 0.76 or 0.77 by then so I can get a 0.75 exchange.

I have 90k in a cashable GIC bond at 3.75% right now. I will need this to go into a my USD eventually (by next spring) for a future business endeavor. Do you recommend cashing this and putting this in my USD account in the next week or waiting til later in the year or until early 2024?

Once I transfer my funds into a USD account I'll put them in some short term American bond to make a bit more than interest until I need the money for business.

>>55515172
cash out your gic and by us treasury etfs
us rates are above 5.25

>>55508659
It's over for Canada

>>55515207
How can you do this in Canada?

>>55515372
https://horizonsetfs.com/ETF/ubil-u/

>>55515444
https://www.ishares.com/us/products/314116/ishares-0-3-month-treasury-bond-etf
this too has slightly higher yield

>>55515453
Many thanks

I am not terribly knowledgeable about Canada’s economy, It does seem that their inflation rate is around where it should be. I am guessing they will continue to hike slowly or outright pause.

>>55515765
They have to stay close to the Fed.
Therefore the Fed are driving, the BoC are a passenger.
They cannot tune rates to accommodate, for example, their housing market.