/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55445496
line is gonna go up but people will be poorer than ever

You will own nothing (normies) and they will be happy

>>55445496
layoffs are bullish anon

>>55445496
SPX will double peak like Bitcoin, mark my words.

>>55445514
so... SPY Calls? for the next year?

>>55445496

Are they anon? They still bought their house at a low interest rate (2-3% fix rate). Wake me up when foreclosures start to happen. Until the housing market actually dumps this recission is minor.

>>55445506
already did, can't see you see my screenshot. The news is late and signals the opposite. Everyone thought the recession was coming. But now boomers are starting to get optimistic

>>55445513
I have multiple swe friends working for fortune 30 companies getting laid off. The largest companies are starting to have financial struggles. One friend has been applying to jobs non-stop for months now. Considering how much of the economy was fueled by the tech bubble I'm concerned ai doesn't have the steam to keep things going. And when I talk to friends outside the financial realm, the general consensus is not fearful anymore. Even my friend who got laid off is optimistic that things are getting better

>>55445496
Top signal.

>>55445555
checked. Maybe but i do have anecdotal evidence. I was at a bar talking with some random frat dudes talking about our jobs. I mentioned I travel for work and they shilled me their air-bnb rental they own in one of the cities I travel to. And I know places are starting to restrict airbnb rentals. Take a look around zillow in trendy cities and a lot of the rental houses are starting to be sold for 10-15% discounts. There are houses in Austin getting listed for less than their tax assessment now

>>55445613
> I have multiple swe friends working for fortune 30 companies getting laid off.
I gotta be honest anon, as an SWE at a megacorp that just laid off 10% of its workforce, at every level of management from executives to rank-and-file support teams, most of those people were the lowest performers in the company. If you made even the slightest effort to be good at your job, you were probably kept on.
I know my experience doesn't represent every company going through layoffs, but what I am saying is that your friends are probably dogshit are their jobs and you shouldn't be friends with them anymore.

>that recession they were screaming about
>they
no OP
you
the recession YOU were screaming about
the recession (You) want to happen in order to validate YOUR decisions and provide evidence that lines up with your shithouse political ideology
once again you have lost

>>55445856
thats not true every outlet from respected finance msm to bank investor notes to youtube and twitter influencers all said the mother of all recession was going to happen in the q4 2022 q1 2023 timeframe
they all got blown away

>>55445496
either the market is completely deranged or arthur as right and we are right now in stealth qe pimping everything
either way asset valuation bottom first before earnings and before employment as markets are forward looking
if we dont get a 2008 2.0 by november its hard to see it coming at all

>>55445880

Yea if nothing happens this fall. This recession is just minor.

>>55445555
Checked and this
Normons hold on to real estate. I don't see no selling pressure either

Republicans are going to do everything they can to force economic hardship on the middle class in the months leading up the the 2024 election.
If people are in economic pain, they can claim to have a "plan" to improve people's lives and livelihoods by addressing the problem they helped create.

I don't know if that means a full-scale recession, since a recession also impacts the wealthy and not the lower- and middle-class, but we're already seeing trends that target those groups:
inflated consumer prices
increased tax rates
no forgiveness of student loans
increased rent/housing costs

Over the next year energy prices will skyrocket as well, since that's another key area.

I just hope the willfully ignorant choose to recognize it.

>>55446073
>Republicans are going to do everything they can to force economic hardship on the middle class in the months leading up the the 2024 election.
>If people are in economic pain, they can claim to have a "plan" to improve people's lives and livelihoods by addressing the problem they helped create.
Abolish the FBI now.

>>55445496
Why do housing prices even matter. If you are someone who MUST own a home just because other costs will rise. Doesn't that mean you're entirely useless (unable to capture larger income) in order to afford price increases?

I buy into the theory that the recession has been silent due to MASSIVE inflation. The stock market could be at the same point as it was two years ago but we'd be down in real returns due to inflation. Additionally, everyone still has jobs, but they sure as hell are affording way less than they could two years ago.

>>55445496
Sneed is dropping

>>55445613
they hired hundreds of thousands of people during the pandemic. they are firing a small % of those now.

>>55446165
>Why do housing prices even matter
because both residential and commercial are also assets on banks balance sheets
if those valuation drop then banks will be constrained in their ability to issue further loans, if they drop even further than more banks could go bust
this is not just about hoomers and their zestimate

>>55445754
>most of those people were the lowest performers in the company
their whole team is getting canned management included because they do supplemental work, not core business

>>55446274
>they are firing a small % of those now.
those people worked somewhere else before the pandemic it's not like we got that many extra wagies floating around now. Even including h1bs

>>55445496
>My highest earning friends are getting laid off,
Is there anyway to invest in Thailand? 4/5 of my laid off friends with mid six figs salaries all have good severance packages and they're all flocking there to just take a break,

>>55446343
idk i watched a tv show where this british dude married a lady boy and paid her money to open a bar

>>55445880
>respected finance msm
financial porn designed to swindle you
>bank investor notes
incompetent kvetching designed to swindle you
>youtube and twitter influencers
deserve the gas chamber

>the mother of all recession
get real, the vast majority used the word "mild" but you ignore those sources anyway

>>55445880
>were making the mother of all recessions Jack

>>55445880
We ARE in stealth QE. Started with the UK gilt crisis and we added even more QE with the regional bank crisis. Stealth QE + AI means big tech moons. Most of the rest of the S&P, and non-AI NASDAQ names, aren't doing shit.

Also in all seriousness there's only a week or two left to buy. ETF is getting approved soon. The June CPI report is going to be PRISTINE. Fed will pause in July FOMC and start cutting by September. All we need is 1 rate cut and market participants will start piling into profitless tech and crypto.

Biden haters hate money.

>>55446073
Yeah, Republicans caused high inflation, high gas prices, and high grocery prices. Of course Biden says everything is currently great

>>55445856
We're in the recession, just in real terms not nominal, you dumb fucking statist slavemind.

The entire fiat grift rests on debasement outpacing wage growth, such that real wages fall while assets inflate (parasitic transfer of resources from income earners to oligarchs).

USD shitcoin is going to zero.

-M2-
1980: $1.5T
2000: $4.5T
2020: $15T
2023 $20.5T

>>55446173
This anon fucks.

>>55447380
i dont disagree with your characterisation of those sources, especially deserve the gas chamber, but anon was saying nobody said the same
and really do i have to dig around for the compilation of onions faces from youtube saying you are gonna get wiped out, that poor dad chink, dalio
and even bank guys with some respect like hartnett and wilson were calling for a giant crash for 1.5 years solid now
the majority certainly did not imply mild, only government officials do that repeatedly

>>55447688
Wilson is always bearish. "respected finance guys" don't understand AI. it's a new paradigm.

Just accept that Powell maneuvered a soft landing and we're entering another 15 year bull market.

>>55447708
>Powell
Nvidia did more than Powell to save the market

>>55445754
Wait you mean the wfh 3 hours/week people got canned?

>>55445496
see, this is why you're poor. you listen to what they say, not what they do.

>>55447693
Druckenmiller is treating it like the internet bubble, and I think he's right.

Prepare for extreme megacap valuations, 2-4 year run

>>55447914
I expect to flip bearish around 2025 when liquidity starts to contract again. Until then we're going to see some INSANE shit in valuations. I'm expecting Nvidia to trade at like 2000x P/E at some point, SPX to 10000, etc. The US market is going to surpass the Japan bubble for the largest in history.