/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55415423
The mp5 is the best weapon and better than the AR15.

>you will never own a full auto TMP
feelsbadman

>>55415423
Buy calls anons.

>>55415424
>>55415213
>>55415201
>>55415413

One of the most striking things about Japan and Tokyo, pic related, is that all those high rises are mostly residential and have stores and shopping, daily necessities inside. They're not just empty office space like in America. They're actually filled with people.

But yeah converting downtown office space into trendy housing would fucking destroy the housing market instantly and transform America's cities into places where people actually walk around a lot.

mumu is going to wake from his restful sleep to a blood red portfolio starting tomorrow for the next 4 years, it is willed

>>55415242
>>55415234
>>55415248
>>55415229

Try to take a guess at how much sugar (corn syrup) is in just one of these things.

>>55415435
Oh this is from the France terror attacks almost ten years ago. I remember people talking about this trick specifically

>>55415446
>>55415442
these aren't calls or sub-machine guns at all anon

who longed the market
how could the government let this happen

>>55415463
If I check the charts whenever someone makes a post like this it's a movement of like 0.25% in the opposite direction I expect that's forgotten by the next day

>>55415453
DS9 was such bullshit, no I won't change my mind.

>>55415435
buy calls after semiconductors fear drop.

>>55415464
I am talking about the 3M chart not the 1D. Why isn't SPY back below 4K. We were supposed to have another leg down.

>>55415470
It had fun war moments and did something interesting with attempting long form storylines.

>>55415488 (checked)
>TA
>actually believing in TA and memelines

It's terminal, anon.

>fed boomer says he'll hike
>market dumps
>fed boomer repeats he'll hike
>market dumps harder
>fed boomer says one more time he's gonna hike
>everything turns green
????

It's literally going to be just fine tomorrow isn't it bros
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvaEJzoaYZk

It would be amusing if a semiconductor embargo on China forces an actual Taiwan invasion, and totally BTFOs everyone. Most "semiconductor" companies like AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm aren't actually capable of making their own chips. Half of SOXL would cease to exist overnight, and the other half would get absolutely rekt because they're extremely dependent on Taiwan, as well as the Southeast Asian warzone in general.

>just got an email from Vangaurd calling me a "valued client"

>>55415443
And someday you might wake up to find hair on your balls

>>55415493

Rsi set to 6 and the vibrating stochastic indicator seems to work for me desu..also the spirograph wedge signal

>>55415493
im not talking about TA im talking about the FUNDAMENTALS

>US banking system on the brink of failure
>Interest rates continuing to rise (no I do not for a minute believe the "pause" will be followed by a pivot)
>Corporate real estate worthless due to WFH
>Debtmaxxers about to get rekt by student loans
>Taiwan about to get rekt by Ch*na
>Ch*na re-enacting 2008 with Chinese characteristics
>Russia barely holding together as a sovereign nation

We should not be going up. It's just not rational.

>recession
gold goes up
>inflation
gold goes up
>systemic risk
gold goes up
>higher for longer -> systemic risk
gold goes up

is soft landing the only bear case for gold?

There's still a BBBY sub

To solve homelessness we should create hobo shanty towers with armed guards. No need for walls, just open floor plans with mesh netting and a gate they can lock using a compound provided combo lock. Let informal economies emerge within the tower while the lack of walls provide free entertainment

Anybody notice how /pol/ and market tops and bottoms are kind of correlated? You could've browsed biz in 2016 when pol was blowing up from redditors and filled bags with anything from ethereum or bitcoin to generic chipshit stocks like nvidia or AMD and made bank. Then again pol was timeless in 2016 so its either fun or money. Its like political turmoil frontruns a dollar printing spree frontruns inflation frontruns number line go up. Also pol is picking up again and biz is boring so bottom is in.

>>55415504
Soft landings are possible. Once in a lifetime opportunity. Bond baggies were just early.

DISH?

>>55415563
I will not be baited by this post, as I am already a master baiter.

>>55415572
>Soft landings are possible.

>>55415435
I remember watching this live with my friends and we all went apeshit when that cop got iced on live television

>>55415540
blowoff top in tech pulling the markets up

>>55415577
It must be so easy to rage-bait for clicks ever since boomers got on the web.

>>55415540
Anon recessions are illegal.

>>55415587
I agree, let's try this one on for size.
>long GD, they have to build a lot of replacements

>>55415540
meh the USA avoided a default on its debt and just printed more money.

Nothing ever happens.

>tfw one retard pick of electric vehicles ruining my all green portfolio

>>55415619
Buddy, look at interest payments computer.

>>55415627
My poorfolio is the opposite
Damn I wish I had better picks

>>55415627
Long term holder of LCID?

I just made it to 600 shares today. Slurping HARD (for my tax bracket)

>>55415513
congrats on making it anon

>>55415656
Thank you!
Unfortuantely, the rest of the email was just spam

>>55415606
Buy lmt calls, own lmt stock.

>bought SOXL leaps today
>tanking already AH


I’m gonna get heemed aren’t I

>>55415639
Theres always more bond baggies out there.

>>55415504
Priced in lil nigga, if it's a surprise we go red

going to bed comfy tonight knowing my nvidia weekly puts will be up 500% in the morning
what an easy fucking life

>>55415423
>Sig Rattler
Not an smg but I want one.

>>55415679
Of course it's always the "buy calls" poster.

Sold SOXL at the top for once in my damn life. Buying back in at 20.

>>55415641
are you buying small caps? I try to not buy anything under 10 billion market cap

>>55415711
Call posters make the world go round jack, and that's not hyperbole.

>>55415727
Bad judgment mostly. CMRX, UUUU, 3 or 4 uranium tickers, trying to do pairs trades on metals, etc.

Why are NASDAQ futes so red? What happened?

>>55415736
biden signed an executive order to euthanize all trannies effective immediately

the news regarding semis is fud right? we havent even set new ath on the indexes, surely this is just a shakeout

>>55415446
a-are these good?

>>55415740
the last 6 months has been the shakeout
you dont seem to understand which way the market is going

>>55415732
dang you got super unlucky then cause i have some of those too. Cameco, steel, and copper etf

>>55415744
which way is it going? do you even have a thesis?

>>55415736
You know it's over, right?

Got 1390 shares of CCL, cost basis $17.90. Should I sell $30 calls for $1.96 dated 19th Dec 2025?

Ill make about $2600 with this trade. Wouldn't mind selling CCL for $30.

Today was the top for SOXL wasn’t it

>>55415540
>Macro-posting
ooof, no wonder SMGay loses money

>>55415752
i dont like selling covered calls. just write credit call spreads if you want instead.

CHECK YOUR FIDELITY ACCOUNTS RIGHT NOW
THIS IS NOT A DRILL

this next trade will determine my near future. if i make some big gains, im gonna move out of my parents house.

What am I buying tomorrow ? A shitload of SOXL calls. September ? August?

>>55415756
>>55415796

>>55415748
growth is slowing across the board, yield curve yet to uninvert, recession still not here yet, inflation not squashed, no demand destruction yet, rates still needing to go much higher (expect to see rates at 7% next year) fed to resume running off the balance sheet until they need to plug the next leak
yeah im pretty sure i know where this is going
the 20s will be a lost decade for investing, dont even bother

>>55415813
rates have been 20% before and the stock market still went up. cope

just went to bought some pants, brought em home and realized I was two inches larger than I thought and I already removed the tags.
Long LEVI and their embarrassing sweatshop made jeans.

>>55415806
not interested in shorting soxl after big news already came out, im too late for most of it. it would be safer to buy in after people overreact and panic sell.

>>55415504

>>55415813
oh shit ur right i better sell it all tomorrow then

>>55415819
rattling off a stat of some time 50 years ago or whatever is not an argument nor a thesis
go watch some more youtube videos

I'm losing so much fucking money on OIL

>>55415504
Debasement.

>playing casual two player commander
>naya precon
>still beat my friends infect deck with 9 6/6 creatures because i always curve out my decks

Didn't even cast my commander. What's a good entertainment industry stock? Clubs ect.

>>55415839
I argued a lot in october with bears, not gonna bother when the market speaks for itself right now. Yeah we can pull back to 4000 or whatever, who cares. Still going up later buy buy buy

>>55415853
draft kangz

>>55415805
No. I haven't checked to see if bonds are getting slurped but they were two days ago. In a bear market high vix is bullish, low is bearish, and if yields are red while the vix is low it's going to be bloody red. You guys need to quit being niggers, when you look at the stats think like an investor holding other people's money even though you are using the same tools to be a degenerate gambler

>>55415850
Wow you know what's wild? I was looking at this graph last night and realized M2 was shrinking BEFORE covid popped off. Isn't that odd?

>>55415540
Repeat after me "money printer go brrrrrr", market crashes tend to be the product of forced liquidations, there's simply too much worthless fiat sloshing around for the market to crash

>>55415745
I'm down about $6000 since I started trading 3 years ago, but my WMT that I get through work is up around the same amount, so like other avenues in life, I am peak midwit - I can't succeed but I can't fuck up either

>>55415879
Buy and hold index ETFs exist for midwits, and you'll still come out ahead of your peers if you don't get taxed into oblivion.
But educated gambling is more fun so you do you.

>>55415876
The more that cash gets allocated the higher inflatinon goes. Currently long term yields are inverted and below inflation. So anyone holding them is burning cash hoping for a pivot so they arent underwater.

>>55415866
This guy gets it
>be like this guy

>>55415853
a coworker keeps telling me about TTWO

>>55415879
like the other guy said, I would highly recommend not wasting time on stocks and just investing your time elsewhere while buying broad market ETFs like QQQ or SPY

shit's easy as hell and free money. half of my portfolio is in SP 500 it's just too good and stable gains

>>55415788
>not using HOOD

I'm finally finding success as a daytrader. Another month like this and I'm definitely quitting my job forever.

>>55415879
it took me losing 28k on options during the easiest bull run of the generation to realize i was a retard and to just accumulate etfs and boomer stocks from now on rather than lose everything trying to gamble on shortcuts

>>55415639
>we'll have to print more to pay the interest
>thinks this will cause line to go down

>>55416014
Do you still buy the occasional option lottery ticket? Or is that too much of a "gateway drug" for you?

>>55416013
the 'quitting my job to daytrade' posts are best top signal there is, they were everywhere in 2021

>>55416021
>print more
People keep saying this dumb shit like currency hasn't always been created by credit. It's more correct to say we'll have to go further into debt to pay off the previous debt. Hence the drop to zero in rates that began in the 80's. It's a ponzi scheme. Not just government debt but all credit through the commercial banking system.

Why does Biden hate good things like SOXL?

>>55415892
People don't hold long term bonds, ints and govs do, negative real yields won't stop them from buying because they'd need to hold USD anyway. Neg real yield, positive nominal > neg real, zero nominal gain. And of course, if US gov toilet paper ever goes no bid, Jay the Faggot will just deepthroat all those toxic assets

>>55416039
i have a new separate account for my safe boomer investment portfolio, and i use the ruins of what used to be my main account with a couple hundred dollars left in it for options just for fun but i wont be funding it ever again so when i inevitably lose it then the accounts done.

>>55415736
Unless it means we will get a crash on par with 2000, 1987 or even 1929, its a nothingburger.

>>55415853
I mean, I wanna buy HAS because I think theyll post good revenue beat this quarter or next, and for the next year or so they'll have good numbers since it feels like they found a winning formula with LotR. Plus it has a 4% divvy.
Nintendo seems good at well, nip companies hate debt, and they have many powerful IPs (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon) that rival Disney. People happily pay full price for kids games and merch.
Activision or EA because theyll probably get acquired in the next 5-10 years

>Honeybees dying out in worst season in a decade

>5G rolling out in July

Bros, I grow a lot of wildflowers in my backyard and I barely saw ANY bees in my yard. Its fucking vacant lately.

I'm gonna short a lot of agriculture stocks.

>>55416090
Lotr set got printed with power in it. I'm buying the bakshi art cards, and cavern of souls print. No one wants nigdalf. Got the artist who made this banned off twitter

>>55416115
For context;

https://twitter.com/bowtiedfarmer/status/1616915413119668224

>>55416053
>Acshuasly...
Dullard. Debt paid with debt is identical in-the-limit to straight printing. Open your eyes and stop falling for bullshit pseudo-economics justifications for debasement. Fiat works like any other asset, increases in quantity (all else being equal) always and only decreases its value.
>b-but da inflation was low in da 2000s despite all da printin'!
'no' Stats like CPI were low, never forget that a HUGE part of volcker's "taming" of inflation was just cooking the books hardcore, early 80s is when they started using complete ass-pulls like "owner equivalent rent"

>>55416080
So it will whimper out...
I basically do the same, except I also do some boomer investing in my stock account. But I leave a little left over to gamble if I feel the urge... but I haven't lately, so there's a few $100 just sitting there

>>55416126
Bzeh got banned?

>futures

>futures

Good Evening, niggers. I’m looking for some advice. I grew an account to $25000 over the course of a few years starting with around $9k. I did it mostly by swing trading. I want to get better at trading.
I want to start focusing on one stock at a time. Is it better to buy in chunks or go all in at one time? Does scalping yield better results usually or holding for a few days?
Any ticker suggestions? I’d prefer something I can hold in case it goes sideways. I’m trying to stay away from penny stocks and options.
Thank you

>>55416239
you did fine by yourself. if you ask here youre going to get advice that will fuck you over. just keep doing what youre doing.

>https://www.entrepreneur.com/growing-a-business/the-damaging-results-of-the-mandated-return-to-office-is/454043
ABANDON YOUR COMMERCIAL REITS

>Futures

>>55416239
>Better at trading
>Holding
There's investing and there's trading. Swing/trend trading is fine. A 2.5x return in like 5 years is really good. Just focus on your risk management, position sizing, and trade psychology. If you can do it again, you'll have 60-70k and, and even so, might be good enough to trade at a firm if you aren't retarded about it

>Futures

https://youtu.be/jnzMEHOwMOo

>>55416265
What are trading firm looking at for recruiting?
Interested because I'm a swinger myself and had good results over time. I tend to simply spend the whole money afterwards but other than that I'm able to make gains over time. I still need to up my game on risk management.

>>55416265
I don’t like losing money. I did once close out a position for a $2000 loss. It was clear I’d made a bad call and didn’t set a stop loss. I did make it all back and then some, but it still bothered me. I figure if I focus on swinging blue chips there’s less of a chance I’ll have to do that. I don’t mind losing a few hundred here and there, but thousands are no good.
I see a lot of people trading options here, but all my buddies who did that went broke fast so I decided to just stick with what was working for me, even if it feels slow.

>>55416246
Thanks. I was just seeing if any likeminded people had some tips.

>>55416282
If you do options do it with expiration at the very least a month out if not 2 or three. Never do weekly options, theta will dissolve the option tremendously each day.

>>55416286
No point in giving tips because investing advise is highly self contradictory and the usefulness differs depending on the psychology of the individual. As a base case you have some people who are bothered by opportunity loss and others who aren't.

>>55416282
If it feels slow it's good.
Options are a gambler fallacy clear and simple. No real trader/investor made money overtime on options.
Nobody on unknown market wizards, nobody on top investors, just tells you only long term losers play the option wheel.
For me if I want to gamble I go to the casino instead it's so clearly rigged I spend 4-5$ then my urge to gamble is satisfied.

>>55416239
day trading is gambling. just buy and hold for at least 3-6 months.

>>55416297
>advice

Thanks for the replies, gentlemen. Much appreciated.

>>55416305
>day trading is gambling
This is what people who suck at day trading say.

China is shaking off the commerce department's communist horsehit and futures will recover soon, Nvidia will short squeeze by afternoon.

>>55416349
t. 10,000 dollar account who trades for pizza money

>>55416300
warren buffet used options

>>55416377
Checked. Warren Buffet is a lot smarter than I am. I think it’s a good idea I stay away from them.

>>55416384
I mean youre not wrong that people using their entire account in options is retarded and most will lose everything, he just wrote naked puts to get some premium while waiting for the stock to drop enough to buy I think.

>>55416275
I'm going to shill Maverick Trading / Currencies because it's the only one I am aware of. I watch No Nonsense Forex on YT and he seems to have a competent approach to the markets. Maverick doesn't have daily goals either, like a lot of prop firms do (eg you have to earn X% a day or else you get let go at the end of the month). At the very least, I know you need to have a trading plan that you follow

>>55416282
When a trend is established (price crosses and closes past the baseline and other indicators agree), I set a TP at 1.0x ATR and SL at 1.5x ATR. When the TP is hit, I sell half the position and move the SL to just above break even. You'll have a few small wins that negate small losses, but eventually you'll hit a trend that gets you 8, 10, 20% at a time.
The important thing is to also manage your position sizes; you don't ever want to lose more than 2% of your account on a bad trade. ATR helps manage this. Look at picrel, it's how you would position size on SPY, for example.

>futures

>>55416406
This looks like something worth looking in to. Thanks, anon.

>>55416406
>>55416430
One thing I'll point out is that 31 shares in this example will cost $13.5k, but you only have a $10k account. This is where you can use options or margin to have the appropriate risk. As long as you set your SL/TP correctly and not fuck with the trade, you should be alright.
The blue number that says 1.63 is a metric I figured on my own, which is the ATR / share price. As long as it's above the 2% risk, you should have enough capital to enter the position 1:1. If something has higher ATR, you trade less position size. You can also see shit like biotechs with like an ATR of like 9% of their share price. I find the sweet spot is around 4-6%.

>futures
Tech bros... It's looking a little shaky for tomorrow

Stock for never having a wife and kids?

>>55416479
my shorts got heemed hard today for absolutely NO REASON WHATSOEVER and my ass got stopped in literally EVERYTHING i did
FUCK you and FUCK this gay ass market i'm gonna fucking off myself if shit dumps again tomorrow

test

>>55415429
Fbpb. Mp5 is the best PCC in the entire category, by a long shot.

>>55416479
What even is the point of bringing up a weight if you're gonna drop it down at the peak? The eccentric is just as important. Goddamn I hate powerlifting/egolifting. But of course the eccentric doesn't count in the world of powerlifting so nobody cares :(
Anyway, sell your metals while you still have the chance bros

>>55416357
China has to lower rates because they are fast approaching 300% debt to gdp so their currency is experiencing devaluation

>>55416510
It is unsafe to perform the eccentric portion of a heavy dl. By the time you are able to perform a heavy dl, you will have proper form or you will have crippled yourself.

how’s come boom-booms like lame poor people shit like stocks n bonds, wile young people like bussin shit that makes real money like crypto n web3? fr fr

Can someone explain what they even do in those banks? Every meeting is the same, they never learn from past mistakes, and they keep repeating the same shtick every goddamn time. Do they take a look at the inflation graph once a month and that's it? Take some coffee and talk about their nieces' favorite Halloween costumes or what?
For the past 6 months Lagarde and her cohorts have been on repeat mode and haven't brought anything productive into play. "Oh we have noticed inflation is kinda high in EU so we are raising 25 bps"...

>>55416540
Risk appetite related to age and environment.

>>55416532
Exactly, so why even perform it? Why not do steady up and down with a lower weight instead? Greater range of motion, safer, and will build more muscle.
Sure though, I get it. Just trying to get out as much strength as possible in one swing.
Nah, I think I'll stick to bodyweights like weighted pullups, handstand pushups, and so on. Perfect form and no powerlifting bullcrap

>>55415873
>M2 was shrinking BEFORE covid popped off
You might wanna look at graph in picrelated and realize that M2 didn't shrink before the plandemic.
I mean... M2 s.h.r.i.n.k.i.n.g??
The last 8 to 10 months were enough of deflation lolmao

>>55416540
white people drive they car like this...

>>55416561
den how’s comes my apemitate for pussy so big n shit?

>futures

>>55415892
>hoping for a pivot
long term yields are laughable at the moment.
even HYG and JNK are only yielding a tad bit over 5% at the moment. and these are comprised of "high yield" (high risk) bonds lol

>>55416554
Banks require yield. They are sluts for it. CRE and mortgages were offering favorable rates compared to treasuries. Now nothing is offering rates so their equity is being torched every day becauae they did not broadly rebalance their sheets. JPM for example has a durable balance sheet while BOFA could (it would be difficult to) get ran on because as of a few months ago it would hace to book losses 40% or more

>>55416586
Yields are too damn low. Raise them. Shit, companies and banks are blowing up left and right and they still slurp laughable yields

Damn, Its going to suck when Buffet dies and there will be no one left to follow for free money. The stock market will become the wild west

>>55416013
what's your method

>>55415540
>US banking system on the brink of failure
lol nope where did you hear that?
picrelated?
>Interest rates continuing to rise
FED is in pause & hold right now and is waiting for inflation to re-accelerate to safely hike again.
i guess that'll start in the first half of '24.
>Corporate real estate worthless due to WFH
WFH is over and it's only a matter of time until only a tiny few will still be working "remotely" (more than did so before, i'd assume)
>Debtmaxxers about to get rekt by student loans
not so fast. elections next year.
>Taiwan about to get rekt by Ch*na
>any day now
this is literally the successor to Iran/Israel tensions of the 2000s till around 2015.
let's see how long the slanty eyes can keep their meme running.
>Ch*na re-enacting 2008 with Chinese characteristics
lolwut?
>Russia barely holding together as a sovereign nation
Russia is completely and entirely controlled by globohomo and is only playing "their" part in this retarded "system expansion through the MIC" theatre.

>>55415542
fuck off schiffy

>>55415540
This!

>futures

>>55416554
Political Theater. Gotta pretend you're "serious about inflation"
Debasement is just dilution, everyone cries about "the debt" as though the bad thing happens in the future "It's a ponzi!" like it's going to blow up, but it's not a ponzi, a ponzi pays out old money, fiat counterfeits money, "the bad thing" already happened, they've already stolen your money and spent it, and while "proximity to the source of money" may have some benefits, the primary lasting effect is just "fiat line go down". DCA into whichever highly leveraged short on fiat you like, but do DCA into a highly leveraged short on fiat.

i tried kelly criterion betting for the first time and after one month i'm down 20%, a full kelly bet. this is some of the worst pain ive experienced in my life.

>>55416659
not one trade but twenty or so using the same amount that add up to a full bet loss

>>55416664
it's the worst because my portfolio had top ticked before i decided to up my bet size

>>55416554
The government will ALWAYS bail out the banks and they know that because the banks are more powerful than the federal government and own them.

>>55416655
>"proximity to the source of money"

>futures

When I say zoomers, you say worst generation ever. Zoomers!

>>55416671
you're only supposed to bet half the optimal kelley size

>>55416676
Who bails out the federal government when they can't make interest payments?

>>55416565
I came from a plyometric background and switching to a mostly barbell routine was the best decision I've ever made. "high level" compound lifts are an athletic movement that requires a certain use of momentum not easily reversed without dangerous physiological strain. They carry the benefit of increasing the amount of both localized and systemic stress in a sustainable way for maximizing long term development. While I love eccentric training it should mainly restricted to isolations, or heavy negatives for the especially competent. Range of motion is an interesting concept, but I've accepted that there are restrictions on what positions the human body can safely apply it's full strength. For example, attempting to lift a heavy weight at a lower elevation than your feet places your body in an inherently unstable position, and thus prone to injury. Examine the bodies of gymnasts after they hit mid to late 20's to see the long term effects. However, increasing your strength in an anatomically favorable range of motion will make you stronger and more resistant to injury even outside of that range. Weighted pullups are actually some of the only "body weight" exercises I still do and cannot speak highly enough of them. Overhead press probably better than handstand for most people, but I still like them on occasion too. Would highly recommend reading starting strength and trying out their beginner program for a few months.

>Futures

https://voca.ro/1lc2TEoGEFjJ

I hope this week will be the beginning of a massive dump in stocks, at least -$20 down. This fake pumping is getting boring lately.

>>55416565
>futures

>>55416683
So does the NAFO handbook just say to take screenshots the iphone you bought with your barista job, so that you always have a fresh file hash?

>>55416693
>he hasn't heard about the infinite money printer

>>55416714
Hyperinflation is still a financial crisis. Eventually you work yourself into an unwinnable situation, which we are starting to see.

>Airbnb collapsing right now

damn wish I shorted that shit ages ago

>>55416713
*with

>>55416684
Nah, we bussin’
no cap fr fr

>>55416713

>>55416722
Not really. They'll just keep increasingly wages to give the illusion that everything is fine.
>>55416727
Scoopies, the only reason you aren't living in the gutter is because of your severe autism mixed with amphetamine abuse.

>>55416684
Nice chest on that one! >>55416696

>>55416693
It's not debt, it's Sovereign Debt denominated in the USD shitcoin, the supply of which has doubled every decade, so they'll "borrow" (print) to pay the interest.

So interest payments are the new doomer shit.

Maybe if its a domino effect with car delinquencies, credit card debts, housing prices and savings all fucking implode around the same time, then it could be interesting kek.

>>55416752
What's the point of it all and interest then. Just write that shit off.

>>55416757
It's to make sure the federal reserve always has the country by the balls.

>>55416722
>which we are starting to see
We really aren't. Look at all the large national unions like the RR unions that have had to strike (or come very close) just for 25% over 2019 wages OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, they'll have taken MASSIVE real pay cuts over those years, the workers are taking it up the ass with little complaint

I'm gonna be shorting airline stocks and I highly recommend you all do that same lol

>>55416685
>>55416659
Kelly criterion is garbage and worthless and I am amazed people still attempt to apply to finance. The formula requires the user to have full knowledge of the outcome (p). Financial instruments are priced based on market expectations of what p may be in the future. As a result Kelly criterion becomes a function that attempts to call itself when applied to non-linear systems i.e.. markets. That's why people have failed to use the theory in the real world and just come up with some complete nonsense in an attempt to salvage it like "just divide the principal by 2 because I said so"

>20% of all PPP loans AT LEAST were outright fraud
PPP loans were the greatest daylight robbery boondoggle Boomers ever pulled. Such an awful generation.
>>55416725
Reasonable idea but you forget that Boomers will unite over 1 thing and 1 thing only: making sure housing prices only go up. It will not matter if we COULD have a soft landing or not. If housing prices are threatened they will burn everything to "right" the ship.

>>55416757
The Debasement can be frontrun by buying assets, now look at how much of the federal budget is social spending (supply side labor subsidy), now look how much is deficit (printer) funded. They're literally pumping their bags while suppressing wages which pumps their bags too (increased profit margins). Neat grift.

>>55416787
so what do you recommend for bankroll management instead

>>55416725
Its not collapsing. Somehow. More expensive then hotels

>>55416790
Day of the pillow soon my brethern

>>55416775
The only thing more cucked then an American worker is a white one

>>55416540
SEXOOOOOOOO

>>55416787
>The formula requires the user to have full knowledge of the outcome (p)
this occurred to me as I was replying but I didn't have the energy to go into it. The fact kelley criterion is essentially impossible to calculate for trading that a lot of people default to 2% of NLV stop loss/gain

>>55416802
Simulate a hypothetical scenario where all your positions consistently fail up n number of times where n represents to 3 standard deviations outside of all historical outcomes or the 3 sigma move based on the implied vol of the derivative chain of whatever instrument you're trading (whichever is higher). This is how brokers with portfolio margin calculate allowable margin to their clients.Even then you are not free from ruin. Experienced traders use discretion and that discretion is derived from experience. They can explain their system to you perfectly and you will still loss money because there are times when they make judgements calls in the context of the unique situations that the markets present.

>>55416823
way too flat chested, needs to have tits bigger than the head

>>55416775
it's the fact that unions are so much weaker than they used to be that we don't have the wage-price spiral like we did in the 70s. That's also the reason that fear of a 70s style inflation was always unfounded

>>55416755
As I said in previous threads, it doesnt matter what the event is or why it happens - just that something will break

>>55416838
i personally find flat chests much more erotic than enormous milkers but i appreciate the appeal either way
this is on topic because fuck jannies

>>55416826
It also helps that if you have a slight edge, say a 51% chance of winning per round then kelley criterion says you should bet 2% of your bankroll

>>55416838
breh, this is an uncultured take

>>55416840
Wage increases were keeping up with inflation but now have slowed while core inflation is steady.

>>55416802
bro stop traeting investing like a roulette wheel. just buy good companies and adjust the weighting by risk. if youre too stupid to figure out what is risky then just look at the IV from option chain

>>55415442
People weren't meant to live packed like sardines in tightly enclosed spaces. High density residential areas have higher crime rates and are bad for other reasons as well like fires, earthquakes, emergencies, etc.

>>55415788
I cashed out for the week already. Made 3.5K on COIN/MSTR calls. Not much but it’s nice to win a little.

>>55416856
It's just so flawed that it's not worth taking seriously. Not only do you need p but you also need the payout (odds). It's only useful for people that design gambling games where odds and p can be objectively quantified and controlled and they will always have >50% win rate.
I short sell with about 85% win rate, to the average midwit on the street I should be a billionaire but you have to manage positions that 5x against you and if anyone can quantify the probably of a shitco stock going 5x they definitely would be making billions. Such a thing is the financial equivalent of the alchemist's stone.

>>55416840
No, wage/price spiral isn't happening because of the huge supply side labor subsidies on the low end, and house inflation mistaken for wealth on the higher end of the wagie

>>55416889
Whats your criteria for finding shitty companies to short? Why not buy puts to cap your risk, premium too high for the ones you short like biotech firms?

>>55416890
It's pretty well accepted that a much larger percentage of workers were represented by unions in the 70s than now and that the unions back then had contracts that guaranteed cost of living adjustments which played a big part in maintaining high inflation. That's not the case now. Obviously that's not the only reason inflation might ease back to 2% but nobody knowledgeable denies the different dynamic in play

Scoopsies is a pedo, change my mind

>>55416895
I start with high short interest plus high 30-day implied vol screener and go from there. The main problem with shorting is not the infinite downside. It's that borrow rates are variable by the hour and stock options that are likely to go down are so expensive it's somstimed more profitable to sell a straddle on the chance that it trades sideways. Usually if the short borrow fee is insanely high I will sell an in the money call. Using long vol as protection is insanely expensive, but Ive heard some have done well with it. I have seen short borrow fees as high as 500% annualized and you can bet the put options would also reflect that otherwise a smart trader could potentially engineer a low risk arbitrage.

>>55416882
I've always treated IV as "the mystery variable in Black Scholes that scales to make the current market value make sense", since everything else is known. Arent 25 delta contracts a better estimate?

>>55416915
I know what you mean, that's why i stopped looking at stuff to short. Variable borrowing costs and insane put premiums on the guaranteed loser companies just make me scratch my head how people make money on things that dont go bankrupt entirely.

Like everyone knows c3 ai is a scam shit company, but good luck shorting it and making money lmao
>>55416916
IV isnt really a variable it's derived from the price, it is a mystery meme though yes.

>>55416907
>guaranteed cost of living adjustments which played a big part in maintaining high inflation.
Yeah, no. You're hitting that statist kool aid too hard, inflation is always and only a monetary phenomenon.

>>55416921
Yeah but if you look at the chain, you can see if a particular strike is higher or lower than both neighbours. It should gradually slope like the treasury curve does. In that sense, you can see whether a particular contract is mispriced
t. Can barely trade competently, let alone write options successfully

>>55416946
that usually happens when the bid ask spreads are really wide because market makers are spooked

>>55416944
No, inflation has its incipience in poor monetary policy but many things, especially the wage-price spiral throw gas on it making it much worse and harder to bring back down. I realize easy monotonic answers are compelling but the world isn't so simple

>futures

>was just thinking it's been 3 years since I got a starfucks and will probably never go back because I hate them
>anime starbucks girl pops up
AAAAAAAAA GET OUT OF MY HEADDDDDDDD

>>55416961
Nope. 100% monetary. Money isn't magical, it's just an asset, dilution decreases value. Simple as.

bid ask spread... more big ass spread amirite

>>55417047
lots of volatility

>>55416777
which ones are you planning to short specifically?

looks like spx is falling back to 4400 for a test

I wish scoopsies was here in bed with me...

>>55417113
yes

I hate zoomers. Boomers will always reign supreme.

https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc4P4lm64V4&feature=share

>>55416838
Petite and flat. Just perfect.

>>55417166
I haven’t seen a dipping mickey reference in years.

>>55417107
>kena bridge of spirits
kino

today is the central bank gang bang

>>55417269
Jpow speaking at 9:30
then speaking again tomorrow. He'll put an end to any optimism.

Pre-market opens in less than 1 minute. What will happen?

Which is the better long term buy? Coupang or Temu? Coupang just went in the Russell and Temu is advertising to everybody and their dog.

>>55417292
>Pre-market opens in less than 1 minute. What will happen?
Death and suffering

About to go get fried chicken and chu his in philippines and then plow some poor asian girl while my soxs/drv die

I wouldn't mind going to sleep and never waking up.

>didn't put money on SOXS after a huge green day for SOXL because reasons
>SOXS up 5% premarket
I'll never make it. jesus christ i'm a dumb trader.

when are the financial people in holiday usually??

>>55417368
august i think

Man I need a new game to pass the time while watching stocks and shit at night. Diablo 4 is a fucking mess, tempted to go back to D2/D3 and play them instead.

>market has no volume
>making gigantic moves

>>55417356
That's the dream. Go for a snooze and you're done. Maybe some day it'll happen.

>>55417392
Market action is in 0DTEs
You can't trade 0DTEs outside market hours

>>55417389
Chess. Warning: chess is addictive and it makes me rage harder than any other game I have ever tried. And I keep coming back for more.

>>55417389
Just go back to D2.

>Oil...

My portfolio fluctuates more in a day than I make in a month. It's stressful as hell

Wtf joe biden why you kill nvda

>>55417418
Chess is boring

ASTS diluted.

>>55417297
>better long term
Neither.

>>55417483
Play Blitz and Bullet chess (3 and 1 minute on the clock per person).
I'm a Blitz addict. No better feeling than crashing another mans position within a minute

>>55417362
buy fear, sell greed.

I will be happy if oil dumps. I want polish oil anon to get rekt hard.

>>55415510
TSMC needs equipment from american and european companies to create their products; if they get invaded they will become worthless in a couple years.

why is vix range bound around 13 - 14 now when it previously was 17-19 ?

are we in a new market regime ?

>>55417776
low vix nowadays just means the pros no longer need to hedge with classic VIX and just prefers 0DTE

>>55417711
My cost basis is $68.00 so good luck with that

So guys what's your play for MU's earnings?
Imma shorting this piece of shit
>inb4 they missed 50% again
>"We see recovery in 2025"
>it pumps 10%
it's gonna be like that again, right?

>>55417776
Yes, the market isn't run by degen gamblers, people had puts to protect themselves while they held, now they are ready to sell and move into bonds, yields should be dropping right about now.

>>55417776
Yeah, nobody believe in a mid term danger. it's only real short term now (0DTE)
That's why svix is basically free money

>>55417776
>VIX was elevated post Covid crash
>now going back to pre-Covid levels
shrimple as

>>55415510
It wouldn't necessarily kill those companies as INTC and GFS would pick up the slack eventually

Semen energy bros? How we feeling?

>>55417839
>with high interest rate
>with way shittier macro
make sense, right?

>>55417908
Yes, it does in fact make perfect sense. The estimation of where the vix should be, where it's going, and how to interpret it, just might be beyond a bunch of faggots on a message board on an anime website where you can say nigger

One of the key indicators we are in a bull market is when futures only move by single or double digit amounts. In 2022 futures always had big swings both ways. In 2023 futures have barely made any big moves so far.

Still scooping Knightscope. On the road to 3.50$
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230626382586/en/

>>55418032
That and the yield curve. Looks like bonds are getting slurped btw

VIX represents risk premium in the S&P 500. It has nothing to do with valuations and there are often times when the VIX will decrease on down days and increase on up days. Look at a chart of SVIX, very little correlation to the SPX. It is a derivative of a derivative. "low VIX mean market go down because VIX go up later" is the biggest retard flag on /smg/

>>55416916
IV represents market demand for insurance and/or leverage. I wouldn't call it a 'mystery'. If you have a car accident that's your fault your insurance will raise your premium because the recent data indicates you are a riskier driver than previously thought. That is functionally what IV represents. Delta is often used as a very rough approximation of the distribution of expected price moves. If the ATM puts have higher delta than the calls it's because the price is expected to decline. Similarly if a 0.05 delta option goes ITM that is roughly associated with a 2 standard deviation move (p of 5%)

Premarket and I'm already getting heemed. Little bit more and my JNUG is gonna market sell on open via stop loss.

>>55417821
i'm trying to understand it because the melt up on svix has been crazy.
i sold some covered calls on svix thinking it would trade sideways because vix would revert back to previous range but it hasn't and the calls are almost itm.

I still have some shares that i haven't sold coverd calls on but I don't really know when to sell them.

Yields....

>>55416883
Violence and crime wouldn't occur under authoritarian governments who actually crack-down on and punish criminal behavior instead of rewarding it like western governments. See UAE and Singapore.

>>55415569
Has anything politically relevant happened this year except for the drumpf arrest LARP and the wagner LARP, both of which predictably turned out to be nothingburgers?

>>55417403
I love ginger cats. They're terrific.

>>55418264
Well I mean those countries just broadly legalize crime and deport those criminals to their home country/hell. Violent crime is an iq problem tho

>>55417811
>we will never recover
>+6%

>>55415813
Buddy look at debt to gdp computer rates are going to dump

>>55418293
Yeah its easy when you can just get rid of people instead of wasting time & money feeding and housing them in prison and putting them through worthless LARP rehabilitation programs. Almost like the death penalty would start making economic sense if Big Prison wasn't profiting off of filling up jails in the west with mostly black youths caught in a manufactured culture-trap.

Good morning fellow mumus!

Green day today!

I've never had sex

>>55418348
>>55418348
>Green
lol

>>55416684
We don't have to punch down like that. Some good may come out of it if it forces a few into introspection but they need help and guidance and are only as broken and fucked up as they are because millenials are broken and fucked up because gen-X was broken and fucked up and boomers are the ones who started the cycle. It's up to us to break the cycle and try to be a voice of reason to this next generation, set an example in everything we do by taking pride in appearance and conduct.
I say this all too late though as millenials are all a bunch of tatted up 4:20 bros with a new mental ailment every week well into our thirties, so the chance of us shaping up to provide an example is dwindling.

SOXL chads….goodbye

>Chinese industrial profits collapse over 18.8% year on year, dashing hopes of a post-Covid recovery
>Last month alone, industrial earnings contracted by 12.6% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Wednesday.
How do I profit from Chinese industrial collapse

>>55418391
>How do I profit from Chinese industrial collapse
long chinese whoring companies that target sexpats

>>55418348
soxl's red senpai

>>55418391
Buy indian plumbing utility companies

>>55418391
It's not allowed to disclose negative chinese market data anymore. Are you not aware? Xi is gonna come for your ass if you continue

>>55418391
More trouble brewing there too. Long term, the regressive move toward a Xi Jinping cult is extremely bearish.
>Chinese manufacturing falters
>Net production down
>Imports will increase
>Russia cuts weak economic ties with the west after Ukraine invasion
>Russia pivots increasingly to China
The way I see it: Russian technologies companies are very bullish based on significant predictable growth exporting to China.

>>55418405
>>55418370
Wait until open!

nattygas chads!

704756294
Repeat these digits to manifest SOXL gains
704756294

>>55418457
I have UNG

>>55415423
>No one here SIEMENS ENERGY
>No one here COVESTRO
It's like you guys don't like making money

gonna need oil to pick itself up by its bootstraps. ayup.

>>55418502
>"Oil shorts will ouch!"
>*allows Iran and Venezuela to flood the crude market*
Gotta love dune coons.

>>55418500
>No one here SIEMENS ENERGY
Thanks for the reminder, I need to add that to my list of gay stocks.

Heh heh, semen energy.

GIS...

>>55415429
>>55416495
too heavy for a PCC

>>55417389
pathfinder kingmaker

someone going to bake a new thread? i want to make an important announcement.

>>55418391
Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao china:
>do business with everyone but protect and support national economy
>free economic zones that are windows to the rest of the world
>multiple CCP factions keeping each other in check
>unbridled optimism about the future

Xi Xinping
>sabre rattling while still suckling the Wests teats
>cult of personality killing and disappearing anyone with influence
>Hong Kong a shadow of its former self
>younger generation literally giving up on life

CCP bros what happened

>>55418622
>Xi Xinping
tries to kill big businesses, contrary to corrupt american civil servants. It's good that a bureaucrats does value money above anything else.

Reminder that corruption is inherent to democracy.

>futes

lazy fucking bakers, fine i'll do it.

>>55418628
>>55418628
>>55418628

>>55418624
Corruption is inherent to all vertically structured systems of governance. The only corrupt free societies are small religious and familial communities

>>55417000
Not even big anime tits could make me drink that slop

>>55418631
goddamnit baggie you baked early and you know it

>>55418654
i baked on time, unlike the other lazy mother fuckers we got baking. if this was a fucking donut shop we'd be out of business because we didn't make the fucking donuts on time.

>>55418405
going to slurp

>>55418176
is that the goldman exec's daughter who got dicked

>>55416406
>>55416461
Good stuff anon, thanks for sharing.
>The blue number that says 1.63 is a metric I figured on my own, which is the ATR / share price. As long as it's above the 2% risk, you should have enough capital to enter the position 1:1. If something has higher ATR, you trade less position size. You can also see shit like biotechs with like an ATR of like 9% of their share price. I find the sweet spot is around 4-6%.
Can you explain what you mean here and the calculation?
>4.32/436 != 1.63
>440/436 != 1.63