/biz/ - Business & Finance

considering this
>>55105386
1 Million+
other shitcoins will simply not matter anymore

>>55112278
Anon, I...

>>55112432
>USD will just stop inflating bro

>>55112323
That's a schizo prediction, people make it every bullrun and it doesn't happen

>>55112278
I will start selling twice a week at 90k+
If I had to guess I'd expect a top around 120k but only for a day.

>>55112278
I think that's reasonable desu and certainly probable if defi is brought to BTC.

>>55112448
>he thinks inflation somehow magically stops bear markets or magically creates bullruns
newfag detected

>>55112504
>inflation creates bullruns
it does

>newfag detected
since here 2018

>>55112278
No. Why? because>>55112432
Best we can expect is ~$60-80k.

>>55112517
Because that's retarded. According to that trend BTC will just stop increasing in value against fiat at some point

>>55112517
then go ahead and sell at 60k during the bullrun and never buy btc again

>>55112537
That's the plan.

>>55112510
then you are a nufag, new fags have been here since 2015/16 latest

>>55112573
lick my balls retard

>>55112448
Until it isnt

>>55112432
past performance is not indicative of future results

>>55112278
$420,069

>>55113115
Elaborate

I think it's more likely than not that we will never see another ATH again.

>>55112432
even 10x from 25k is good enough.

>>55113482

just a shame you're getting a 5x max then

same for eth

there's no such thing as beta in alts any more as they're all blown the fuck out relative to btc, none of the correlations have reset to their lows (ie dogecoin)

crypto is done

>>55112278
Holy shit this is the new high XRP prediction?
Buying more XRP right now.

>>55112278
$333,333.33

>>55114383
That would be pretty cool
though I would appreciate a jest like $323,666.88

Too many people (including retards like OP) know about BTC's cycles. This will not go on forever. My assumption is that there will not be a top for a long while.

All the promises crypto made turned out to be bullshit, the real returns will be in FNGU, TQQQ, SOXL, ect due to AI mania companies like NVIDIA and Tesla going to 10+ trillion market cap

We had an aborted run last time thanks to that faggot M*sk so I'm expecting a bit more of a pump this time. Like we should have gone to 200k last time, so I think we might see a pump to 1M. Alternatively, BTC is approaching an asymptotic final price, and the pumps will become more and more lackluster as they go on. In that case I'd expect the top to be something like 120k, a mere 2x from previous ATH.

>>55113465
Were you here during the last bear market?
People said ATH was impossible then too

>>55112278
Absolute top somewhere between $100k-$150k

Most other (good) crypto assets will outperform BTC, including ETH

>>55114550
>Were you here during the last bear market?
Yes. And the one before that. And the one before that. I've been in crypto since early 2011.
>People said ATH was impossible then too
I don't care what "people" said, there will always be someone saying literally anything. I just know that this is the first bear market where I am unconvinced that we will ever recover. It really is quite different this time.

>>55113432

i.y.k.y.k.

>>55112278
Yes

>>55112278
Using standard regression models, sure, it's as reasonable as anything, though what I think will be more likely is the inability to trade it for fiat, or fiat-ramps being heavily surveilled/interfered with. On the black market, BTC would then probably go to a few hundred thousand to a few million dollars in today's money, though transacting in it would be difficult.

>>55112278
$300k+ after it breaks the trend next cycle

>>55112278
the real question is how much more time do i have to accumulate bitcorns and mETH

>>55114445
I think part of that is because we sit on Biz all day. most normies I know, and I work in tech so a lot of tech normies, still are not in btc or have no idea what it is .
I was asked the other day "Damn bro you rich do u think btc will be worth a lot? can u explain what it is to me?" He makes 200k at a fortune 500 tech. At my company pretty much 99% of people either never heard of/talksabout/owns any btc, or even worse they still think its a scam ponzi going to 0.

I unironically think we are still somewhat early

>>55112517
according to that metric the next top in 250k

>>55116992
Which will be 100-150k in todays dollars

>>55113482
based on that it will be a x3

>>55116984
>inability to trade it for fiat
P2P trading
I don't know why you say inability to trade it for fiat

>>55112278
Why ever expect a blow off top again if we didn't get one in 2021.

I expect something like 80-120k, leaning on the lower end of that range.

>>55114868
>It really is quite different this time.
Why. Mainly I just want to hear your own perspective, I can imagine many scenerios where it doesn’t

>>55118581
The hard data I can point to is macroeconomics. All throughout crypto's history we've had near zero interest rates, which has fueled all kinds of investment bonanzas because loaning money was free and people couldn't earn anything at all simply by having the money in a bank. In retrospect I believe this helped crypto grow a tremendous deal. But it's now over. Interest rates have skyrocketed and they likely won't go back to zero for a long time, barring some new financial crisis. (And a financial crisis wouldn't be good for crypto either)
1/2

>>55118581
But more than that, it just "feels" different to me. Previous bull and bear cycles always felt like they broke new ground, reached new people, new milestones in adoption or innovation.
But not anymore. Every bullrun has been smaller than the last, and if we extrapolate we aren't far from the point where that trend eliminates major bullruns altogether. Everyone has heard of crypto by now. People aren't excited by it. And most of all, people aren't actually using it, in some areas adoption has gone in reverse for the past few years, such as number of shops accepting it.
The only reason 95% of people got crypto was to make a quick buck, but if there are no more such people to buy, they won't. The very furthest we can go if all the people that previously bought, somehow buys again, is back to ATH or so, but not much further.

We would need new money, which would have to be traditional value-seeking investors. But I think there is still literally zero appeal for such institutions to buy crypto, because no value is generated (and I mean "value" as in sustainable returns for the investors that doesn't rely on others buying it after them. Not the abstract value of decentralization even though that is real). Only exception might be Ethereum, which now actually does have an honest-to-god sustainable yield for investors in the form of staking rewards paid for by fees from the users, that I could imagine attracting institutional investors in the future.

2/2

>>55114445
theres always gonna be demand for a decentralized currency that is in your control and the halving makes sure that miners wont dump for cheap , so yes long term btc goes up forever its that simple

>>55118772
Thanks, you expressed that very well and I don't necessarily disagree with any of that if i'm being honest. I still personally think new highs for BTC/ETH is more likely than not.

>>55112278
180k-240k

dangerously bullish amount of retards thinking that BTC is dead

>>55119138
Yup. I'd say 95%+ of normies still have no understanding of the idea of a decentralized currency, or what the halving even is.
If you ever go on a twitch chat or random non-tech discord and bring up crypto, you'll see people's opinions are nowhere near as informed as OP some anons think.
Normies forget stuff very fast, and once the newpaper headlines tell them to pump crypto again, they will follow like sheep

my sell orders are all between 90k and 180k

>>55114630
The part about ETH is correct, but BTC will still be the catalyst for the bullrun, so keeping up with its halving cycle is still worth it.

>>55112278
It's hard to say now that muh rainbow has been disproven, but I also think it no longer matters. The halving is all that matters, beyond that it's just seeing how much risk you're willing to tolerate.

>>55112448
every loan of any type inflates fiat at about 10x

>>55117129
this is a fiar argument
BTC is the intersection of tech fin law society and capital allocation as well existance of GOV's.

It is pretty hard to understand for a person in any one of these field alone and even harder for an NPC

>>55118772
uh yes there is value its called capital allocation

>>55119353
Capital allocation isn't a value, it's a strategy. It's like saying "investment is a value", it doesn't make sense as a statement. It depends on what you are investing in. Whether or not crypto has value will decide whether or not people allocate capital in it. Not the other way around.

And aside from Ethereum, capital allocated to crypto does not generate returns. Therefore it has very little value. Yes, it may have a fixed supply so that in theory it beats fiat inflation over the long term. However, that only mattered in a zero-interest-rate world, where holding fiat lost money to inflation and thus crypto was preferable. But we no longer live in that world. Now, there are near risk-free places to allocate your capital, like bank accounts, or government bonds, that has a higher interest rate than inflation, thus earning you more real yield than even a cryptocurrency without inflation.
At that point, purely as an investment, crypto is absolutely worthless.

>>55117367
I mean on a larger scale. P2P trading is the only thing that's possible without exchanges and such.

>>55118769
Raising rates, in isolation, is bad for anything but the asset on which the interest rate was increased, but you have to take into account the context in which the rate rises occur. Every Western fiat currency in on the road to hyperinflate against energy, and the US deficit shows no sign of being under control. The US is not going to reign in its spending, and it's now tasted the forbidden fruit of ad-hoc money printing ("stimulus"). Those 5% or even 7% don't look that attractive if you take into account real inflation in the future. The move IS drastic, but it's a move made out of desperation, and the financial system is too leveraged to handle the shock.

>>55119485
it is its a value of how arrange everything,
investment is a value thats precisley why it's recieves award or goes down in value.

I'm afraid only things like Link, Aave, SNX, GMX and other stuff that provides value will be increasing from here on out guys. has to produce some type of value and shitcoin casinos don't count. Now is the time of Institutional crypto.

>>55112432
but the placement of arrows is arbitrary kek

>>55118772
We still need 2 breakthrough and it is the one where normies can buy BTC without a hussle.

Now it is still too hard to buy BTC. My mom is not capable lf doing it.

>>55120335
VISA has plans to do that.

>>55119495
Larger? No need for exchanges, multi key sign escrow exists. Can be done between individuals and can be done between entities. And who says anything about fiat. Fuck fiat, especially fuck the usd

>>55117160

No, it makes the next top 60K, dividing by 5X each cycle, counting from the bottom, assuming the trend stays the same. Correct me if I'm wrong

4X on a $15K bottom

new money will come from institutions like banks. they're accumulating enough to then sell to normies through their regular bank accounts. grandmas will be able to invest in PoS coins and earn a yield through their bank. for banks it will be a win too since they'll be able to make money on fees and selling those coins for a good profit.

>>55121879
no. New money comes from international energy traders, shielding themselves against counter party risk encountered by nation states that all relied on the dollar shitcoin and their shitcoins attacked by the dying dollar cabal

>>55121899
>>55121879
New money is coming from all the people that think that the price will go up and don't want to miss out on the pump. Everything else is a meme.

>>55122077
>fomo meme
idiot. btc has simply by far better counter party risks and a reduction of other risks than fiat and rocks

>>55122095
Boomers that rule the world don't care, look at the Bitcoin marketcap. They will just sign another agreement and use fiat_2 instead of fiat_1.

>>55122133
boomers in politics are dying in their chairs

>>55112278
170-220k

>>55120335
Normies buy BTC through brokers like Robinhood, the barrier to entry is now the same as it is to buying stocks.

>>55122754
that's paper Bitcoin that doesn't actually pump the price thoughever

>>55122892
I didn't know it worked like that, interesting. It does make sense that brokers would do some bullshit like that instead of function like exchanges.

>>55122942
Exchanges run on double entry, crypto runs on single entry. Do some research twitter newfag

>>55118769
>>55118772

this noob couldn't be more wrong. first of all theres crypto visas like binance, which are accepted over 150 million retailers over the world, of course not in us and a.

but crypto isn't only "moving money a- to b."

second you are so wrong that "crypto wont bring any sustainable returns"

yes, 99.8% of them are just ponzis or hipster startup playing with investor money.

only cryptos which makes real profit are in order:

1. Binances BNB >1 B$
2. Ripple (XRP) >500 M$

next crypto bull run will be utility based, real money making utility. while newfags and moonboys are waiting to boomer btc to rise, these real money making "crypto coins" starts to moon silently, after that ripples sec lawsuit clarification will trigger the bull run where they rise >9001% and BTC dumps to oblivion, or maybe gets that 2-5x just to distract normies from the real moon shots like the XRP.

lets keep the thread in the catlog

>>55113465
KEKd actually legitimately laughed out loud at how wrong you are.

>>55125678
isn't it funny, and most are either nervous dollar maximalists or mETH dealers

>>55112278
>>55112432
>>55114630

Did rough math. I guess it's not looking good for ATH -> ATH price increases. Hopefully the cycle breaks. Also note that the second cycle was pretty short. It seems like the 4 year cycle thing is a bit of misnomer.

looks like it'll be around $120,000 according to sequence and ChatGPT. Unless something massive changes, we're just multiplying the current BTC price by four.

>>55126282
You needed chat gpt to figure out the next sequence in that pattern....?

>>55126282
15k x 4 = 60k

>>55112278
why none mentioned pi cycles indicator?

>>55122892
>that's paper Bitcoin that doesn't actually pump the price thoughever
it pumps it because it goes up

top will be around 40k around january as people try to frontrun the halvening pump

then it will dump to 10k when people realize another pump isn't coming.

>>55126141
>>55126282
Last cycle underperformed for a couple obvious reasons including one of the biggest exchanges being a literal fraud that wasn’t buying actual btc with customer’s deposits when the customers put in buy orders for btc, and also borderline hyperinflationary money printing in the US that sent stocks like Tesla and GameStop and frankly just the entire market soaring in unnatural ways that usually don’t happen, which soaked up some of the yolo retail money that usually would contribute to a blow off top for btc.
It’s the opposite of “this time it’s different.” Actually last time was different, this time it will return to the trend from which it deviated last time. If the trend had not been broken it would’ve likely put the 2021 top around $120k. If we return to the trend, I think we could see mid-to-high six figures in late 2025.

>>55123835
ripple is a worthless shitcoin though, its not even a cryptocurrency

>>55127147
why can't next time include all the same scams that fucked it up last time? there's a FTX or bitconnect or mtgox every cycle

>>55127679
Mt Gox was actually buying btc with their customer’s money, they just got hacked (inside job or not), and bitconnect was just a Ponzi scheme yield farm. While I expect scams to continue to happen, those ones in particular did not directly suppress the price of btc during the bull run. People who were buying btc from exchanges were actually driving up the price of btc in the market. FTX was different in that probably billions of dollars that people thought they were buying btc with were actually just being handed over to SBF’s hedge fund to gamble on shitcoins; No btc was being bought and that suppressed the price relative to past cycles.
That, along with the money printing which I think was a more significant factor.

>>55119897
Seriously. What a retarded chart, LOL
>>55112278
I guess, but you're better off with alts

>>55127147
It's true, last cycle felt really off and fucked up . everything was just off. nothing aligned and we still hit 69k

>>55112432
4-5x is 100-125k....

>>55112504
It actually does. Inflation is constant buy pressure. Also crypto cycles are literally based around Bitcoin inflation decreases thsts why they're roughly every 4 years after each halving (inflation decrease). Think about stocks even the biggest price change usually happens when you change the supply ie mint shares or buy back. Ultimately the supply is the most direct correlation to change in price

>>55112278
120k or something maybe depending on how much the corporate and political leadership fuck it up, north of 250k

Retards ITT forgetting covid drop was a thing

>>55129916
You are an idiot janny

>>55112278
Forty two thousand United States Dollars

>>55128517
4.5x from the current cycle bottom is $69k. It’s from cycle bottom to cycle top not from previous top to new top.
We had a cycle top of 20k and then 69k, a 3x top-to-top. Now we’ll get a 1x top-to-top ie just a retest and rejection.

>>55130165
you are rejection fool

>>55130222
check'd.
but the other guy is correct.

>>55112278
>muh blow off top
didn't get one last bull market

>>55130248
using his logic over here >>55130165
it means this will be the last cycle. don't listen to preachers harping "it will never reach ATH ever ever ever again noooOOOoo"

>>55112278
>Is 160,000 blow-off top reasonable?
It's better to keep wishing for the previous ATH at least and not 160k. BTC is now a special stablecoins you know. Even make more gain farming tether and USDC via SpoolFi than Bitcoin. Find some trending narratives to avoid regrets.

>>55130277
>It's the last cycle
>Trust me goy
For jews yes

>>55130277
oh, if that's your point, then sure.
I recant my statement, because you're correct, we will hit a new ATH, but only at ~$100k.
or a 1.5x from top to top.

The BTC top doesn't matter. Just grab a low cap memecoin for MemeFI summer that is here. 1000X is possible. I'm grabbing at vbonemoon on Twitter for my memecoin bag.

Vitalik's huge cock + Dogecoin = perfect memecoin.

Only 100k mcap so 1000X is FUD.

By the way, you are all incel fegs worrying about BTC tops.

>>55130454
>>55130459
Multiple angry replies
Ah the kvetching of the jew. The song of your people

>>55130454
jannies did their job and deleted a shitcoin scam post? I must be dreaming

Bitcoin is going to $100,000 this year

$250,000 next year

$500,000 in 2025

$1 million dollars in 2026

everyone knows that bitcoin is the future, just look at all the use cases we have for crypto already

>>55130637
They have to decide lose their grift or do their job. Either way it won't change the deterministic outcome of their past actions. This board dies and will never again live

>>55113115
this will actually be the top unironically

>>55119509
>Those 5% or even 7% don't look that attractive if you take into account real inflation
real inflation in truefaltion is 3%

>>55130651
The most apparent hasn't even started. Trading oil outside the dollar cabal network

I've already said this, and I'll say this again
Here's the narrative :

>2017
>bitcoin will break $50k !
top is $19k

>2021
>bitcoin will break $100k !!
top is $69k

>2025
>bitcoin will break $250k !!!
>bitcoin will break $500k !!!!!!
>bitcoin will break $1m !!!!!!!!!!
>insert retarded El Capo prediction here
top is ~$100k

I'll start dca out, dumping 1% of my net worth every day bitcoin is above $100k

>>55131865
Wtf is an el capo? Lemme guess some attention whore idiots follow
Retail doesn't matter. Get it in your head

>>55112323
1 million is fud

Damn, we’re early. Look at all this newfags here

this cycle will be left translated.
everyone is expecting the normal 4 year cycle to play out.

exit before the halving.

>>55127824
>those ones in particular did not directly suppress the price of btc during the bull run
Bitmex suppressed in 2018

>>55132223
>exit before the halving
I don't understand this meme... stock market will recover by 2026 with usual money printing, rate cuts etc.. so why to sell before the expansion of money phase?

>>55132223
So close to quads but you were too late.

Yes, everyone is expecting the rinse and repeat 4 year cycle and they’re looking at the past bill runs to find patterns as to how high we’ll go.

The truth is, there is a pattern and we will violently rise in the next few years. But it won’t be this diminishing returns to $90-150k…

Bitcoin is growing logarithmically. It went from about $1k to $10k but jumped higher near $20k for a brief moment because of euphoria. It then made its jump another 10x from that base in 2020 to what should have been $100k, but again there were macroeconomic forces that ended up suppressing the rise to about $70k…

People will be surprised (again, like always) when Bitcoin rips past $150k and goes to near $1 million next bullrun. It’s possible we only make it to $500k or maybe $750k. But all the same, the numbers don’t lie in this pattern progression.

>>55112278
top is 75k
screen cap this

tops gonna be 47k. last top was created by FTX wash trading and musk Tesla cash

>>55127679
there was no large scam in the 2018 bear
also mtgox is the first scam that was retarded enough to be ultra leveraged short btc, the took about 20 billion worth of retail spot buys into large caps and turned it into shorts
thats jew magic for you
that coupled with the chinese miner ban really killed it, anyone who uses this as a legitimate datapoint is about to blown away in whats coming

>>55132360
gotchu bro

>>55132223
>exit before the halving.
Halving is for cryptomarket he's describing there moron.
Always seeking for spoon-feeding even when Binance, Coinbase, SpoolFi, Aave... Halving, diversification, Chinese bull run.. is mentioned.

Learn to start coping, else Biz will ban you for life.