/biz/ - Business & Finance

First for VIX traders are best traders

>>54959068
how is the weekend vix holding up?

Stock market is closed on the weekends, retards.

>>54959097
Movie night, bitch

>>54959086
Ultraviolently crabbing

>>54959125
>>54959135
That was the problem I ran into when I looked into shorting vol spikes in the past. The margin requirements to sell a single VIX call was too much and not worth the measly premium collected for 1 contract. And I wasnt really interested in longing the vix puts to go short.

Kill all blacks and pittbulls

>>54959168
You can always sell VIX call spreads or buy puts during spikes. By my math a short front month VIX position has about 3x-4x the beta of the SPX so even shorting at 0.5x will give you close to a position equivalent to a 2x long on the S&P e-mini. That's easily done within CME margin requirements. And some brokers will give you a special day trading margin on VIX which is much lower than the CME requirements so you can go even harder if you want. I'm actually pretty happy with 0.5x on the front month or a 1x short on mid-term as I feel that gives me plenty of gains but mitigates danger of liquidation. Also if you have portfolio margin or use SPAN margins you can short front month and long mid-term contracts at the same time lowering your overall margin requirements

AMRS baggies are entering the despair phase.
Also always fun to watch the screeching DWAC Magabaggies. Literally Trump University'd
Need more tickers for loss porn bros.

>>54959097
Go back.
Back to the crypto pits, where there is darkness and gnashing of teeth.

>>54959097
I just nutted in my pants. AMA

anyone have earning whispers chart for this week so I don't have to hunt for it in archive?

>>54959298
nicely put
i do not have any but have been watching btc today
hory shet
imagine holding it

>>54959269
That makes sense I'll look into short front month, long 3rd or 4th month when in backwardation... But then also look for contango within the middle months if possible too?

>>54959315
What to

>>54959322
I specifically look for backwardation on the spot term structure between the VIX/VIX3M pair and the VIX/VIX6M pair. When both of those are in backwardation that's a definite signal you might have a trade. I pay less attention to whether the mid-term itself is in backwardation. I just note that it is in backwardation less of the time than the front months are so a mid-term short is a safer trade. I don't really use it as a signal though. I look at SPX implied volatility too. Particularly comparing the 30 day IV with the 120 day IV. If the 30 day IV on SPX at the money options is more than 2.5% higher than the 120 day at the money IV along with the VIX spot ratios being in backwardation you almost certainly have a 5 start VIX short trade setup. It helps if high yield debt spreads are blowing out too. Anytime the debt market is in strong agreement with your trade that's good since traders there run more sophisticated models. Lastly the least sophisticated traders are looking at price action, technicals, moving averages, etc. in the spot equity index markets so for a last check see if those things agree with your ideas of a good setup. If all of this is in your favor go in and go big cuz you're about to make some money

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54959021
You have to go back.

>>54959396
based

>>54959396
Blame the custodians. I would have used an anime milk truck but those get banned instantly.

>>54959396
based

>>54959403
>shill me a value stock
PGR
NOC
PFE
ADP
ATSG
SYY
That's the best I got on my list

since /smg/ failed me. I feel like target and Walmart are going to forecast the next 2-3 months.

Watched wall street money never sleeps earlier today. Not a real masterpiece but still a decent biz kind of movie. Movie puts things in perspective regarding money and human condition. Captured the 2008 crash on a more personal level then big short did. Gekko's talk of tulips and 2022 crash is pretty kino from todays view. Would really like to see a third wall street movie in 2 years or so to capture 2021 but cinema really went downhill in depth and big short was a sign of it so maybe its best wall street never gets a third movie.

>>54959506
I do business with quite a few of those companies..

>>54959518
based

>>54959405
shut up i like the cat picture

>>54959506
an article i read on MSN today said to keep a watch on both WMT and HD for substantial indicators.

>>54959021
what stocks is yall niggas acquiring?

>>54959558
QLD

>>54959558
BOIL

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

Anybody else feeling a sense of foreboding that this year (2023) might be the last one to resemble a world which we have come accustomed to?

>warning, you're one trade away from a pattern day trading violation
>warning, you're one trade away from a pattern day trading violation
>warning, you're one trade away from a pattern day trading violation
>warning, you're one trade away from a pattern day trading violation

>>54959558
MIDU

My gookfu git revenue that covered a quarter of costs in her opening. I'm so fucking proud.

>>54959558
SQQQ

>>54959567
I hope you die slow and hate yourself more each day because tomorrow you should feel worse and I hope you feel worse than that

14 minutes to movie night! Tonite's feature is Jackass Number Two (2006) (we're skipping the first one cuz I couldn't find it on bitchute -_-)

>>54959583
what's the going rate for a handjob? might stop by.

>>54959511
Honestly the second wall street movie was kind of crap in my opinion. The first one is really where it's at.

>>54959583
what did she wind up doing? i only recall a couple or so weeks ago you speaking of her seeking something to get into.

>>54959602
20$

>>54959599
Goddamnit I might actually put down the vidya for a moment and watch that just for the nostalgia if nothing else.

Movie night movie night, get in here! Tonite's feature is Jackass Number Two (2006)!

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54959280
REEEEEEEEE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE TESLA OF YEAST

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54959558
BVNRY, depending on how Monday's Chicago data turns out.

>>54959564
I’m at 4.67, what’s the buzz?

>>54959789
Gas rig count just plunged.

>>54959370
That all makes a lot of sense, screen capped your post for future reference. thanks for your help. I'll be on the lookout for an opportunity. Vol has to pick up sometime soon

>>54959789
you might see that at some point ahead, i can't call it, but the rig count report spiked it up a bit Fri. i just buy dips and sell rips all along the way as best i can. it is far too unpredictable for me to hold long. there will be another coontract rooliolio coming up 6th business day of june, going from july coontract to sept. the rooliolio itself might make it dive but right at the tail end of that process should be a good time to buy or average down from an established position into. there were some excellent averaging down opportunities just recently, like 2.59. if you would have added a nice chunk during that then you'd already be pretty close to a breakeven. if you can ever get close enough to a point you like, i would sell that shit and swing it, buy dips, sell rips. the main difference is that we *should* just now be getting into a phase where the overall tendency is more upwards supported rather than continual overall drooping, but there could be news at any point that tanks it to fuck, or moons it. it is dangerous fuckin shit to hold for long, in my estimation. if i had to bet though,you'll wind up ok at that basis and *might* even wind up kickin' ass, but i will never make wild predictions on it. the official outlook all the way into 2024 is mostly fairly subdued and anything beyond that will be due to wild news, which absolutely can occur. when that days comes, if that news is favorable, you'll be grateful for any exposure you have.

Fellow smiggers and bobos, I am extremely satisfied holding my short positions (inverse leveraged ETNs). Chop is quite negligible, sans a pump back up to 2021 highs. And even better its a hedge in case I get laid off and can't find another job. (If that happens the economy will be in a depression). Really don't know why mumu and callfags think they can trick my value investing strategy.

Also, is housing really that expensive? We just lived thru the largest economic expansion and succeeding bubble since the 1929. Why wouldn't housing be ridiculous?

today i had to sit next to a grill with 10/10 doompa in denim shorts all day and tomorrow i have to do it again

Anyone else notice a huge uptick in "fuck it, let's default" sentiment or is it just me?

>>54959370
What's your take on some serious tail risk on things like CMBS, and CDS. I was just thinking we are ripe for some serious car debt delinquencies rising. I know it's not a huge portion of the market but paired with IRR banks runs, CRE crashing, alot of derivative bets will be blowing up I'd wager and this will at least present itself as volatility in the general markets since we can't know the contagion of derivatives blowing out but it will be vicious at this point.

>>54959571
No, I think 2024 will be similar.

what is a nobel economist anyway
what he cure?

Sigh I remember when I was a kid/teen going to WMT seemed like everyone was happier. There was I guess "soul" there. Now as an 40 year old adult I go and its depressing as hell.

>>54959885
>Also, is housing really that expensive?
Dividing by median income, absolutely. Households doubling up on income, increased square footage, and forcing people out to the burbs thanks to collapsing cities are big factors that you should also include in that calculation.

>Why wouldn't housing be ridiculous?
Interest rate hikes leading to mortgage rate hikes leading to rekt ability to make monthly payments. We're also starting to see the uptick in jobless claims/unemployments that forces selling. There's just a lag effect in those dynamics bringing prices down because housing is one of the slowest sectors out there.

Big mumu heems
Lil Bobo screams

>>54959925
The prize in economics isn't a real prize. Nobel didn't set it up, some Swedish scammers did. Don't tell Krugman that though.

>>54959892
women owe me sex

>>54959097
>You're not ALLOWED to talk about stocks or shitpost unless the market is open. That's the ONLY time you're allowed to have thoughts and talk about ideas! Threads on nights and weekends should be BANNED!
Imagine being a control freak libtard.

>>54959963
they are similarly indebted to me

>>54959935
I'm thinking home buying is a thing that just has to be done during bubble popping/crisis. Was thinking that shit is about to get real salty up in here. It's funny that a lot of people are pricing in np landing. As in fed starts cutting rates and inflation will just go down without a recession. But if you think, there is a recession, how bad can it get? When there is fear and uncertainty is when credit really tightens and the consumer will cut back heavily. That's when layoffs begin and we get to a point where we don't know where we will land. Sure fed can do QE but then inflation will rip back and they'll have to keep rates high longer, or start hiking again. And shit will be much worse after that.

>>54959918
Since trump mentioned it when he shat all over the CNN sloppy cunt. Please don't ban me jannies you sensitive fucks, what ever happened to sticks and stones break bones?

>>54960001
That is correct. We need inflation to come down, fast, in a non-recessionary way. Otherwise the Fed's higher for longer policy will cause mass destruction of regional banks, commercial real estate, and other hard-to-unfuck as-yet-unrealized segments of our economy.

Those will tighten things rapidly, drive us into recession, and result in a SPY 200 endgame where Powell must resign in favor of a replacement.

>>54959995
I call heads

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54959924
Thanks.
That made me laugh.

>>54960008
That was a kino town hall. Proud of him recognizing energy as a central cause of inflation, even if it's not the whole story and "drill, baby, drill" would force me to shift from oil calls to RIG/TDW.

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54959922
I think it will be big, bigger than 2009.
I follow a guy on Twitter, cardealershipguy, that is really on top of reporting on the industry. Already their are more delinquents than 2009

>>54959932
The West is dead, you at least got to experience it on its death bed before the pulse flatlined.

>>54960050
It has always been about energy, kikes hate decentralized energy production.

>>54960156
There's plenty of fuckery with the money, labor, and land/housing supply as well though. Each of those is a big input to our current inflation problems.

>>54959932
I don't leave the apartment much unless it's to go to work or grocery shopping and yeah when people have less money they aren't happy. Everything is expensive and people are struggling and you can feel it in the air that it's going to get worse. A lot of people are living paycheck to paycheck. When you literally can't get the smallest thing like a pop at the gas station because you literally have no money, that's when you really feel the worst.

>>54960165
Add in all of the new demand coming from the New Americans being funnelled into our country by our loving bolshevist leaders, and it is no wonder why shit is so bad. Imagine every Maria and Jose receiving cash cards and phones at the border, that creates a new demand variable that otherwise would not exist.

>>54960187
I'll be on paycheck to paycheck until I clear on this house. But even after clearing I will have a lot less money than I was expecting.

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54960204
>anti-Semitism punishable by death
How the hell did anyone allow that to become a law?

>>54960245
Oh nevermind it was just Stalin flapping his gums

she wants another taste of that 3800 dick

>>54959123
What’s going on here?

Are we 1980 or 2007?

>>54960428
1929

>>54960428
3987 (1980+2007)

When the fuck do oil stocks moon I’m getting bored of waiting

>>54959021
Fuck off back to plebbit, catposting normalfaggot.

> My Dog killed an African Immigrant in our Garden!
https://files.catbox.moe/ynye5b.webm
> Cats, Parasites and Multiple Psychological Disorders: The Science
https://files.catbox.moe/pkiepa.webm

>>54960529
This. Fuck Catniggers

>>54959558
Same thing I buy every paycheck. VT

>>54959618
I wonder what it must smell like in that pool party

>>54960016
>>54960092
The fed is just completely fucked. I agree with some zirp-niggers who say the fed can pause and we are already tightened enough, risk going too far. Problem, when SVB collapsed and the fed stealth QE'd and look where everything went, right back up. They literally have 2 choices, break some shit and cause pain, or continue bumping between 5-7% inflation until we completely implode. Might as well take the pain now, so they can QE again from the bottom of a crisis and globalist bankers can get assets on cheap.

>>54960529
>>54960564

mumu hope you enjoy your weekend before the big one next week

>>54960621
here's the big crash:
>412
>411
>410
crab back to 412 at close

>>54960625
we close below 410 on Monday and chop down to 390 by Friday

>>54960625
Complacent mumu

>>54960614
You have to go back.

>>54960625
>>54960638
The numbers, MASON! What do they mean?!

>>54960428
We're Thailand in 1997.

>>54960655
You look like the fag that just went to plebbit.

>>54960638
I'm holding SQQQ though
the crab always win

>>54960668
>You look like the fag that just went to plebbit.

>>54960668
You tracked him easy.

>>54960428
we in 1929 and mumus are in the "yeah we are rocking now because we're delusional" stage

>>54960680
You literally just went to reddit to look for a similar cat picture I got off a thread on /o/ a month ago. I don't think you know what that means.

>>54960697
The photo you posted has its source on plebbit. You are a niggerfaggot who needs to kill himself.

>>54960705
And you went to reddit, gigatard.

>>54960715
Nope. The pic I posted ( >>54960655 ), which exposed you, is of the Google reverse image search results. That's Google, not plebbit.

What does it feel like to get %100 liquidated?

>>54960715

>>54960729
Because images can only be on reddit, right? All this because you don't like cats like some kind of chinkoid.

>>54960745
That's not even the same image, but I'll take more (you)s if you're gonna give em out like this.

>>54960747
You truly have to go back.

bull bros.....why cant we stop winning?

crash this, recession that.........bobo this is a bull market

>>54960817
1 post by this ID

>>54960817
how does it make you feel being on the same side like (((Cramer)))

>>54960767
>1pbtid

>>54960824
now theres two you broke faggot

So debt default for USA might be a possibility this time...how do I profit from that happening, if that's even likely to occur this year?

imagine thinking this is bullish

I had the strangest interaction with my landlord today. He owns a business right next door to the apartment he rents to me. I ran to the store and when I pulled back in I see him and someone else walk about back kind of like lightly wrestling with each other. So I'm like oh shit is someone trying to fuck him up? He and his family are like the nicest people ever so I assumed I was going to have to intervene. All of the sudden as I roll up they both stop what they're doing and he just smiles and asks how I'm doing. I was like is everything good dude? And he was just like, yeah we are fighting. We then proceed to have small talk for like 30 seconds and I was like, welp this is weird see ya and went up to my apartment. My immediate assumption was the guy was a regular customer and my landlord always gives people free shit because he's a foreigner, and that's really not something people are used to in the Midwest because people have a "no such thing as a free meal" attitude and he was also holding money in his hand and it looked like he was trying to force the guy to take it back. Overall it was the weirdest fucking thing. I planned on just pretending it never happened and never bring it up again

>>54960957
mfw can't even do a little fun light wrestling without an autist sperging over on a tibetian monk crochet imageboard

>>54960715
>>54960752
>>54960972

>>54960972
Kek I'm pretty sure it's nothing, he patted the guy on the back after I asked them what the hell was going on, but he's not a young dude he's like in his 40's. I've rented from him for almost 2 years so I know the guy pretty well. The other guy said literally nothing the entire time and I assumed if he was truly in any danger he would have said something at that moment, but who knows.

>>54960890
Flight to safety: Megacap tech companies. MSFT and JNJ debt is triple A rated too.

>>54960983
>here take the money
>no dude no worries take it back
>nah keep it..
>>light wrestling starts
I could imagine this situation

>>54961053
I'm almost certain that's what was going on. They wouldn't have just both stopped and he wouldn't have had a casual conversation with me in between of some serious shit was going down. I've seen him get visibly annoyed when he gives me free food and I put like a $5 bill in the tip jar. Man those middle eastern people don't fuck around when it comes to hooking up people they like. Trying to pay when they try and give you something free is seriously insulting to them. But I'm also someone who minds my own damn business so I didn't want to ask any questions. Its just weird though, I'll offer to pay once and if you are truly adamant about not wanting me to pay, I won't ask again.

>>54960890

>>54961096
its just good practice as a small shop to give free shit to your regulars to keep them and build good relationship

Anons...

>>54960668
with that sumer outfit he won't make it through the night in winter

>>54961147

>>54961147
But but Brett Johnson said everyone would drink usa milk shake!!!! Reeeeeeeeee!!!!

>>54961096
when you think about it, the loss he takes on handing out free shit is nothing compared to the return he gets on a regular customer.
you get ze free bugs and vill be happy and you vill return. win-win

How's your suicidal ideation today anons?

>>54961287
I don't know what ideation means

>>54961287
I considered it. Weighed the pros and cons and decided against it.

>>54961351
Return.

>>54961446
>>54959405
>>54960529
>>54960655
shut the fuck up autist

It's the second day in a row trading is halted. I don't feel so good about the stock market.

>>54960922
this is extremely bearish and is the reason why things are shitting the bed or are crabbing forever. there is no juice left. the lemon is dry.

>>54961459
>>54961446
3 hours later, another id, now on to different guy, and this fag is still at it. Really I should give him the credit for keeping /smg/ bumped on the weekend.

>>54961497
AAPL and MSFT are starting to crack. they can't keep those overbought levels forever.
when the selling starts it will come down fast

>>54961532
When the fuck is it going to start exactly? They're both almost back to ATH. I guess AAPL might be good for a short at $180 if it goes up there but I wouldn't risk it.

>>54961566
I don't know but if you look at technicals on the daily for both AAPL and MSFT indicators showing negative divergence while they both go higher. momentum points down, like the other anon said there is no juice left for more retard strength

>>54959240
based

Markets shouldn't be closed on the weekend

I'm thinking about joining the bogleheads, is it a retarded idea? Are ETFs ok?
Most of my money is in crypto, I'm starting to think I should be diversified in safer options.
Don't really have any goals other than not starving when I retire, maybe buying a house but not really interested right now. Basically want to save up most of my money and have it available if I ever need it for a big purchase and not lose it to inflation. I don't know shit about companies so I'm not sure I'd do well with investing in single company stocks.

Why are they pretending as if there is even a debate about raising the debt ceiling?

>>54961735
because THEY want to burn the world down and rule over the remains

this thread was a disappointment
anyhow, i am short Google at 118 am i fucked tomorrow bros

>>54961909
literally gambling

>>54961920
yes

Reading older books can be a bit funny in hindsight. Nobody expected QE.

Deluded bears prophesying crash for more than a year now. Post your shorts retards. Oh that's right you got wiped out. There won't be any big crash. We range at most.

>>54961707
>Basically want to save up most of my money and have it available if I ever need it for a big purchase and not lose it to inflation.
Physical gold, some bitcoin and a seasoning of monero. But you do this if you already have money. 2mil+.

>>54961929
They weren't wrong tho, it was a crab decade with commodities being king.

>>54962009
>There won't be any big crash. We range at most.
when the bullish case is at best a crab you know its over

>S&P500 saw drawdowns of over 20% in 7 of the last 8 recessions
>most of the max drawdown took place during the actual recession, and not in the 12 months prior
but it's all priced in, right mumu?

>>54962022
They were wrong but they made the correct arguments for the information they had.

>>54962072
b-but over 70% shit&piss companies "beat" earnings expectations after (((analysts))) lowballed every single one of them?
nevermind the actual data - don't look at that goy! look how sound and resilient the economy is.. remember soft landing.. :^)

>>54962082
>made the correct arguments for the information they had
what kind of cope is this? u either predict right or wrong.

Don’t forget to tell your mommies happy Mother’s Day. You ungrateful cucks

>>54962072
>>54962118
post your short positions anons

>>54962118
this is the most honking thing about clown market
>we are projected going to lose 6 gorgrillion
>o fuggg we only lost 5 gorgrillion
>pump pump pump
>ahhhhhh they are putting AI in the coffee creamer
>pumps to ATH

anyone else want rates to go to 0 again so we get hyperinflation instead of depression?
I mean we both lose value but it would be better to see huge gains instead of losses

>>54961489
Dire

>>54962149
It's not a cope, no one's omniscient.

>>54962030
If retail is short. I'm long. Simple as

>futures

>debt ceiling deadline supposedly june 1st
>relatively uneventful week coming up until job numbers on thursday and jpow shitposting on friday
>es range still between 4050 and 4200
another crab week with retarded movement thursday and friday that ends between +- 1%

>>54959511
the only stupid part is where shia goes all in on max margin on a failing bank. It seems like anyone smart enough to get to his position would never do something so reckless. But I guess you need that to set up the plot.

>>54962520
look at the DXY rising, this gives hopium for more volatility than this bullshit we have right now

>>54962164
Thanks anon.
>something something SPY financial advice

Good Sunday Morning /smg/!

Do we need to be worried about a potential passive indexing bubble? The structure of some of these S&P 500 ETFs and funds seem a little questionable when you have a handful of companies providing the bulk of the earnings for 500 companies. I think someone smarter than me could model an earnings scenario where the S&P 500 index could even go negative in a historically bad economic environment.

I’ll hang up and listen.

>>54959820
Thanks, getting some education on this.

>>54959872
I appreciate it. I’m underwater on it and also took a big hit of TSLA at the exact wrong time, forcing me to hold.

it's out
https://youtu.be/__OegYfrSoI

>>54962176
Imagine when the market figures out that current AI models are just empirically derived systems that don't do anything more than what some autist could come up with. I will give the ease of use and applications are nice, but there aren't that many problem sets that it can solve. In addition, the AI probably can't get a whole lot better than it is now. Due to things like overtraining which has the AI simply move closer to the mean of the training set.

>>54962667
yeah I've used chatbots literally 20 years ago on some irc channels. you could even query google and bot pms you the result.
we just repeat the same bullshit in a more modern UI (again)

>>54962072
>S&P500 saw drawdowns of over 20%
>of over 20%
>over 20%
>20%
H-h-heh. Why are people even worrying?
No, seriously...

>>54962730
Im pretty certain we will test the 2008 range coming up.

>>54962185
shut the fuck up.
N/Z/LIRP is over.
deal with it.

>>54962653
i got underwater on it at a point somewhere in the 4s but would average down into dips then sell rips and it reduced losses. less loss. in my view, *reducing* losses is as important of a maneuver as achieving gains, and the key to that was buying more on dips and then selling *relative* rips. at a certain point i then did more switching to shoring any good spikes with KOLD and selling those at the first decent gain. in my view, for the last maybe couple of months, these quick swings have been the best way to work it while it finds a bottom but it's going to remain relatively dangerous to hold for a while because we also have to consider the effects of the greater economy and the potential for downward pressure due to recession demand. however, it most certain can spike up into the 4s at any time, it is a wild bucking bronco.

>>54962552
>look at the DXY rising
As the dollar continues to lose momentum
He need land from murdered Indians that represent 'em
Gold is up, urgin' all thugs
Trade in y'all chains for cash and splurge it on drugs
A more secure investment
Food and water, a couple of gallons for your cutest daughter
FOR YOUR CUTEST DAUGHTER

>>54962743
Serious question: How exactly?
Without debt(currency) destruction on a massive scale, what kind of circumstances would be present so all the currency lies dormant on the sidelines for equities to freely trade down in price.
I mean... what exactly would disincentivize people from owning and holding share of stock the whole way of -80% from here?
Can you explain that?

good morning, sunday morning

>>54962753
>>54962653
I have been holding since $9.

>>54962405
Funny thing is.. retail is long. Most CTAs were just turning long and are back to short. It's passive buying that's been keeping indices from lower bottoms.

>>54962888
>CTAs
Are those the retards on Reddit?

>>54962792
impending credit crisis/commercial real estate collapse/bank collapse

>>54962879
It’s gotta come up. One day the KOLD gang will be on the other side.

BOILbros what's the game plan tmrw?

>>54962899
I hope you're not being disingenuous and only be sarcastic.

Look at difference in ratios of institutional vs managed money.

>>54962900
So basically the things that have been prophecised to happen any day now for almost two decades straight are going to finally happen any day now?

>>54962933
>>54959872
>>54962753
i'm holding a little now after a while of just swinging it, but not too much, just enough to enjoy any further spiking if it happens. i *expect* more opportunities to average down some until essentially "all in", but will sell any good rips and continue buying any good dips, yet with longer (than previous) holds lasting anywhere from days to weeks, depending on how i read the moment including all natgas reports/news, with an expected peak for BOIL in Nov which will hold the Jan contract, which is the peak in futures as it stands, then start swinging dips/rips again and alternating with KOLD on the way back down.

>>54962964
unironically, yes.

>>54962974
post your short

Anons is it worth paying for Yahoo finance PLUS?

>>54962983

>>54962962
I was being a little of both :) but that looks like more crab action to me. But what do I know

I refuse to believe that anyone here holds anything other than cash or 0dte puts/calls. There is just no way that there's somebody who's actually long in this market.

>>54959021
Do (you) support Rocker's transition?

>>54963093
>no way that there's somebody who's actually long in this market
they're called normies

I think Rocker will be happy to finally be herself

>>54963080
I'm glad you made me pull up CoT charts. Looking at bonds, belly of the curve treasuries, managed money is extremely short, so they are betting on yields going higher.. thinking that something will break. More bank insolvency?

>>54963102
stunning and brave

>>54963093
>mfw cash only since Mar 2021

>>54963136
I made the opposite bet Friday, I bought SCHW at $49. Should be interesting this week

Also, what if crab action we've been seeing is smart money liquidating their positions against passive inflows. Basically selling the top whole retail buys equal to their selling?

>>54963150
At least you are getting a nice yield on that cash

>>54963093
believe deez nuts

>>54963160
I went full schizo perma bear mode and diversified into Georgian Lari FX term deposits.
>when the market finally catches up to fundamentals I'll enter and make life changing money
Tell myself this every month for two years now

>>54963122
thats a woman

>>54963180
At least you're not losing money. Most people took a big drop since last year.

>>54962933
Stop buying fucking BOIL

>>54963150
>blueballed for 2 years
jesus

I sold everything in january with zero profit or losses because we've been crabbing for a year. Im starting to go crazy just after 4 months, I cant imagine going 2 years without buying...

>>54963282
I legit just took the last two years off from doing everything other than checking SPY and VIX movement on my phone and waiting for the day.

So bros, when will the market start going back up? I really need to know because my financial situation is a little fucked. About 95% of all of my money is invested in the market and Im currently > 50% down so pulling my money out is not an option. Im trying not to panic but my stress levels have increased precipitously and Im staring to have minor anxiety attacks after I get home from work. My bank account is in the triple digits most of the time and I don’t think I’ll be able to make payments for much longer. I could really use some reassuring words right now.

>>54963350
probably a year or so we'll be at the same position. If you bought the top then you can sell at zero profit in about 5 years lmao.

>>54963350
Sorry bro but the recover probably isn’t until Q2 2025 at this rate

>>54963257
>being this gay of a nigger jew

>>54963362
>>54963368
I can’t wait that long…

>>54963350
I hate to tell you this, but there is about as much hope for you as there is for our board's link marines.

>>54963350

>>54963350
what are the specifics of your portfolio?
do not invest what you cannot afford to lose
and cut losses before they get worse than you can afford.
walk with the LORD GOD Almighty through the valleys of the shadow of death, Psalm 23.

>>54963102
This is the hamchad(beast) that rocker endorses.
Wheres the update rocker?

Hypothetical question:
How would you effectively hedge a position of 1,000,000 shares of SPY?

ROCKER!
Post the update ROCKER! Its sunday, marlet is closed, smg is dead and I'm bored. It can't take you long to down a 6pacl and start talking shit about scoopsies on camera

>>54962962
On this data table does "long" just mean long options (long puts and long calls) vs long market position/short market position?

>>54963451
>1,000,000 / 100
That's a lot of covered calls my fren

>>54963417
Mostly high growth tech. I also bought some AQB a while ago that’s hurting me bad.

>>54963451
>>54963481
Write 10,000 0dte 20 delta covered calls every single day

>>54963451
Because SPY is the S&P 500 and therefore market benchmark, there isn’t really anything to hedge for market outperformance outside of selling covered calls which would be tax inefficient.

Man that was a long 3 days abstaining from biz... Instead of green candles, I looked at green flora in nature. Instead of being a hated and capeless hero pushing back against the relentless tide of doom-mongering bear barians, I roamed empty fields alone with the sun against my back. For a moment I thought I was in Elysium and already dead!

Anyways, here's what I really learned in my suspension. If you have time to chat about markets on Mother's day, ffs don't be a degen and zoom with her a bit. She deserves that much. Send her some flowers and chocolate. Make sure your wife's bf also does the same if you have kids like me. Makes her breakfast, don't allow her to lift a finger today.

Now THAT is Da Wae.

>>54963508
>tax inefficient
Only if you have no capital loss carryforward and are a high earner that is in the top tax bracket for ordinary income and capital gains. That's not my scenario. I'll pay my 15% tax on $50k of covered call premium. Only boomers with $250k + salaries use words like "tax inefficient". And you don't just get one of those high paying jobs without shabbos goying. Simple as.

>>54963481
>>54963508
Well, besides writing 10,000 covered calls on SPY (dunno if you'd get filled if you tried) or write 1,000 (european exercised, cash settled) SPX options on margin... idk...

How do the "big guys" do it I wonder...

>>54963496
Uh huh

>>54963555
>dunno if you'd get filled if you tried
Kek. Only one way to find out... Fuck paper trading, just get in there and start offering some competitive asks for your contracts

>>54963451
The JPM collar strategy. Sell calls to fund your tail risk puts. If you are going to hedge, do it for free.

>>54963580
Gonna do it asap.
picrelated got my back.

>>54963594
Maybe split it up between 0 and 1 dte at a few different strikes if you have to.

>>54963493
you might want to consider just cutting and moving all of that into 5% bank CDs or treasuries because there's a pretty good chance your "high growth" tech shit is going to get worse well before it gets better and that AQB shit should have been nothing more than a quick swing on a move of pennies at best.

>>54963606
I guess anything "shorter" than 4 to 5 dte would be too risky to be assigned because it might take some time to get these massive fills.

>>54963594
If Schwab doesn't approve me for level 3 this week, Mr sosnoff may be getting my /biz/. I was already approved for level 3 options in a gambling account, but when I fired my advisor I decided I didn't want two separate regular brokerage accounts so I closed out my small goomblng account and transfered the assets to my main account and applied for level 3. It's been a few days now and I'm regretting not doing the opposite, which is moving my big account into the smaller one already approved. But whatever I don't think they will want to lose a good customer

>>54963451
>>54963591
this is the correct answer
a collar

>>54963624
>Get assigned
So what? Then take the cash and sell poots to buy back in. Make them force you to buy/sell. That's what I'm going to be testing out the remainder of the year

>>54963350
The answer to this question depends on two things: your overall cashflow and your expectations for the underlying companies. As long as you can afford your various monthly payments on your current income, you can afford to wait for these stocks to recover (that said, if these are on margin sell it NOW while it's still your decision and not your broker's). If your income can't cover your non-stock related payments that is a separate problem that your portfolio won't be able to solve.

Anyways, assuming your income situation is alright, it then becomes a question of, do you think that at some point these will recover. Basically, for each company, do you think they will still exist and be bigger in 20 years. If AQB is a representative postition you may be in for a rough long hold. But, if these are high growth stocks then they may also have a lot of potential. So, maybe another question to ask is, "is there any new information since I've bought these that indicates to me they no longer have long-term potential"? Dump any stocks for which you answer yes.

Once you've weeded out the weak picks - ignore for a minute your losses. You need to think about what's the best to invest in NOW, with the number on your screen today. Do you still want to swing for the fences with companies that will either 10x or 0x? Or, would you prefer the safety (but lower long-term potential) of something like a broad market index fund? An intermediate solution to consider might be, put some of your wealth in safer holds (e.g. index funds) so you have a "backstop" that prevents you from going to zero while still participating in broad-market gains. But that is a decision only you can make.

>>54963350
You are stuck praying for your shares to go up unfortunately

>>54963636
>So what?
Well, I guess that getting assigned quite literally is the cryptonite to a covered call hedging strategy.
It depends entirely on being able to "roll" time after time again and trying to maneuver your strike price in the process.
I mean, constantly "rolling" the position is the strategy.
You'd be constantly chasing the price fluctuations of SPY, trying to position your covered calls "at the money."

pic semi related

>>54963683
>You'd be constantly chasing the price fluctuations of SPY
Yes but it's not chasing. Just pick strikes that result in gains and don't be retard on your put strikes to buy back in... What's wrong with taking a gain and then buying back in when it dumps a lil bit and then do it again? And again? And again? And again?...

>>54963696
I don't think we're talking about the same strategy.
I was thinking of hedging through covered calls only.
You wouldn't get any fills on any sort of collars if your dte aren't far out enough. At least I guess you wouldn't...

I bought VOO yesterday. Roast me

>>54963807
I mean Friday. Shut up

>>54963815
you are already roasting yourself. our job is done

>>54963807
thank you for taking those off my hands, I will buy them back at 275.

Honest question, how is the stock market supposed to crash when hedgefunds, banks and other corpos sit on trillions of dollars in cash to buy even the slightest dip. Even zoomers and millenials will dump their paycheck into SPY once it happens.

>>54963815
Wake up anon it's time for school.

>>54963838
Do you honestly think they have trillions in immediate liquid cash?

>>54963838
I really don't see a prolonged 'crash' like '08/'09 or '29'. I won't repeat the same points about fundamentals being different with QA and other forms of state-sponsored capital market gains but if you think about every possible black swan event that could happen in the next couple years, all would result in a COVID style plunge and rebound to new highs. Even literally WW3 would probably only wind up shaking out paper hands in the medium term

>>54963838
there needs to be more real economic pain before a crash
student loan payments resuming in the fall might do it

>>54963493
>penny stocks and obscure tech
That sucks anon. I'd just pull out. This is coming from an anon who is currently -50% on a penny stock that was shilled here a couple months back, but I don't need the money so I can just wait it out. I'm selling end of summer whether I've recovered or not by then.

>>54963842

>>54963493
this is the fate of any 'growth tech' bought in 2021

>>54963729
>hedging through covered calls only
Ok so you just never want to part with the shares? Parting with the shares is a part of a covered call strategy sometimes. As long as the strikes you pick for the covered calls would result in gains, then I don't see the problem with selling the shares. Green is green after all. And now you would have a bag of cash that you could sell cash secured puts on. Then take assignment on those to buy the shares. Then sell covered calls on those shares. Then sell those shares for a gain. Then sell cash secured puts. Then buy the shares. Then sell covered calls. Then sell the shares ... Repeat ad infinitum

>>54963873
I'm still doubtful they will actually restart for this reason. seems like something they will want to continually postpone somehow until elections.

Oil finna get HEEMED

>>54960739

who ready for negro monday

>Take plastic that cannot be re-used like styrofoam
>Grind it up into little bits
>Mix with sand and heat
>get bricks that store plastic waste

>pre-futures

>>54963624
use SPX, no assignment risk

Relaxing day. Only thing I've done productive wise today was give the cats flea treatment. (They don't have any which is a good thing; you don't want those bastards in your house). May take the car later this afternoon to the car wash though. Tuesday is primary voting day. They pay me to vote. I get 4hrs of paid time off to vote. (Uh my voting place is not even a mile from the house so yeah I cast my vote then go home and do whatever for the rest of the day)

Any plays for the Tvrkish elections?

>>54959558
MO, F, and T.

>futures

>>54964177
is he ok?

>>54964177
What was in his portfolio?

>>54964188
Hell no. Watch till the end. Pretty nasty.

I was really horny today but wife wasn’t so while I gave her a foot rub, I put my dick between her toes and jerked off with her foot. I came on her foot. She said I was gross. Bullish or bearish signal?

>>54964210
Crypto ETFs.

which books should i read first and why ???

>against the gods
>billion dollar whale
>liars poker
>more money than god
>princes of the yen
>staright to hell
>black swan/antifragile

>>54964177
>what it feels like to hold soxl

Does the tranny janny really delete replies to off topic posts too now? jesus dude get a hobby

>>54964270
gives bans and the replies go too.

>>54964270
At the previous /smg/ meetup, the janny showed up. She’s actually really fucking cute. She gave me a foot job. She might delete this post & ban me bc she gets embarrassed about it

>>54964315
>she

>>54963996
she turn to whoring now?

>>54964315
>>54964343
xer banned me for racism, can you believe it. literally never been banned for it on 4chan since like 2006. its over

>>54964383
They do it for free.

>>54964422
I've been banned for raysys comments twice in the past 2 weeks. They even banned me from pol too. Unbelievable.

>>54964383
I haven't read past that chapter because my torrent software was acting up. Despite owning physical copies I can't read nip so I'm not sure what's going on now. I think she took out a loan from one of the other characters.

>>54964430
>for free.
Disgusting, that's janny level of gains.

>futures

Any anons eyeing gold miners? Is 2k local top or start of the fabled gold bullrun?

Why dont we just texas bankruptcy the US national debt. One baby drop and we can back to pumping for fifty more years.

>>54964454
xer must be a fresh off the boat redditard mod or something

>>54964132
[on mobile now]
I should've added that in case of SPY it's not just a risk of getting assigned but also getting exercised (if ITM) if unable to successfully roll or sell. (because of the massive size of the position)

SPX only carries the risk of getting exercised if you get "stuck," true. No risk of early assignment. (thanks Europe! or something idk)

>>54963350
It depends on what you hold, if leveraged bull etfs sell them NOW, take your 50% losses and a lesson. Capital preservation above all else. I was down >80% on KOLD all last year and didn't sell, and made even almost. Still lost 8k and the ability to short the market and ride the bear rallies.

If it's equities, depends are they commodities? Or tech? I'd sell tech now and hold on to commodities, when the market returns in a year + they will be the first to pump on reflation. Growth stocks will be down for awhile.

>>54964674
>stuck
What did he mean by this?

How is covered call a hedge? Aren't you supposed to go short as a hedge?

>>54964723
Anon, do you think I should dump my $9 BOIL position? It's less than 1% of my port and I can afford to keep holding it for however long. But it keeps decaying...

>>54964795
Rip 3% portfolio.

>>54963938
[on mobile now]
>Ok so you just never want to part with the shares?
Kind of. At least a long term hold of several years.
And the idea was to hedge the price movement of SPY in either direction as close to 100% as possible.
This would mean that "rolling" for more premium is a must, kind of.
"Sell & rejoin" only if you are unable to adjust your strikes by rolling any longer. After sudden huge movements/volatility, for example.

And "in either direction" because the more far ITM or OTM your "rolling" becomes it gets increasingly difficult to do so. Also premiums are nonexistent and the risk of assignment/exercise or "worthless expiry" are ever increasing the farther away your position is from ATM.

>>54964757
>What did he mean by this?
Not finding a trading partner for your massive order and therefore getting stuck with your position into expiry.

>>54964861
>And the idea was to hedge the price movement of SPY in either direction as close to 100% as possible.
That's not what you said. You just buy the equivalent delta position in puts that would leave you delta neutral between long shares and long puts and you would have the poots expire at the end of your target hold term or just keep rolling them regularly, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually even.

My strategy gives up some of the potential upside to be locking in green all the time... I would rather do that. Theoretically you could get heemed in a large downward move but in that case you would just scale your put selling to buy back in if holding cash or just keep selling longer dated covered calls that would allow you to keep selling calls with strikes that would result in gains. But you seem like you would be upset if you sold those calls and then the market recovered... Not me. Green is green. Green is gains. Greed is good. Green is god

>>54964914
I'll think about your approach.
ty

>>54964861
>worthless expiry
That's what you want when selling covered calls on SPY. Your trying to sell snake oil. Sell worthless contracts and keep your shares. I would just pick green strikes on the covered call side and then let it get assigned and sell your shares. Take the cash, scale into selling puts so you don't buy back in all at once right before a downward heeming. Shit you could park all that cash in 5% t bills or MM fund and still sell the poots and earn safe 5% while you scale back in slowly. Idk why you need to hold the shares all the time (even through the downward heems)

>>54964422
>>54964430
>>54964454
>>54964484
>>54964670
Don't forget: nu4chan is run and moderated by feds.

>>54964969
>Hello fellow trader!

>>54963350
I'm almost in the exact same situation as you. I'm 26 thousand in debt but have 20 thousand in assets that were worth 40k at one time. I'm not too worried because job pays good and is "essential" so no possibility of a layoff no matter how bad the economy gets. I can afford to long con it, but the money lost on interest rates is going to be a fucking bitch and a half to make up for long term.
I eventually capitulated and sold covered calls until I was out of my positions. Now I just wheel options to make passive income until this stupid fucking nigger we call a market finally decides to crash.

Best advice is don't panic, maybe pick up more hours at work until you have some semblance of savings.

>>54964966
You should hire me, I'll fly to you dawg. I'm a decent fella, I swear on my CPA fathers grave

>>54964969
>is run and moderated by feds
That's explicitly why I am here. I know a particular European former market maker that is affiliated with Tavistock institute comments here sometimes. He's honestly helped me out a lot, even when I get rowdy and inconsiderate

>>54959511
The part you described is good, Shia sucks and ruined that movie

>>54964985
>26 thousand in debt
how many months until you pay it all?

>>54959558
Nrgu

>>54965042
The largest chunk was 7 years, now 6 more to go... The rest I can have payed off mid to late next year.

>>54964779
CCs are short; short calls. Limits upside to guarantee income while crabbing.

>>54964969
Hope they get paid well.

>>54965057
Won't do shit for you if market goes down and stays down for years.

>>54965054
Anon but you said your job pays good

>>54964779
Depends on what you are hedging. Are you hedging some penny stock that can disappear tomorrow or the index that represents the free world...

baking!!!!!!

>>54965119
I'm definitely going to be able to pay it off sooner, but I just don't know how much sooner. Groceries are literally twice as expensive than they were when I first took out the loan.

>>54965102
Most markets either recover or crab. If you are expected it to be down for that long then you are just longing the dollar and maybe are expecting a deflationary scenario. Such a thing doesn't seem reasonable.

>>54965102
Correct! Or if you sell under your cost basis and the MMs decide to rip it the next day. I am not a fan of CCs unless you're already way ahead on your position.

>>54965057
>short calls
Somebody here called me mean names for calling it a short call instead of a naked call

>>54963991
Why you think that? OPEC gonna cut again june 4th

>>54965102
You could say the same thing for my $10k a year professional series holding Jew's diversified buy and hold strategy... I'm currently bag holding international and emerging market ETFs at -15% in an inherited IRA that needs to be fully distributed out in the next decade... Wish he woulda just done buy-writes on those instead... Now I have to make a decision on those since his nigger ass is gone. And there is no option volume on these tickers anyway so selling OTM calls is out of the question. I either have to take my L or just hold until it's green and then I can sell ATM calls to exit the position at that point. Either way. 6 one half dozen the other. If he woulda done some buy writes immediately, it would have capped my profit, but I would have more money to average down during the downside...

Is something going on with Icahn that isn't just GME schizo stuff?

>>54965276
you lived under a rock for the last weeks?
(((Hindenburg))) report about IEP ponzi

>>54965158
Are you retarded? It took nasdaq 16 years to reclaim 2000 highs.

>>54965250
>OPEC gonna cut again june 4th
One of many cuts still to come.

>>54965342
No one cares about that nashit

>>54965325
yes, whenever Icahn was brought up I pretty much ignored it, just like I would ignore anything involving Cohen or Chamath

>>54965161
Well yeah you shouldn't sell calls under your basis unless you want some premium to exit the position

>>54965342
yeah except tech companies back then were making no money while nowadays they dominate the market

>>54965282
>>54965282
>>54965282
>>54965282
baked !!

>>54963468
Believe it is their contract positioning. So calls vs puts. Since that's what's on the CME and the nasdaq is its own exchange.

>>54964795
No. At this point there is a higher chance to go back up. And forget what people tell you about decay, front months will start pumping and well probably be in backwardation by August in anticipation of winter and EU needing to have some industry or continue to go bankrupt again. While the chances of breaking even aren't the best, you can still make more back than dumping your bags

>>54964293
that never happened on any other board

Corn futures?

>>54966108
It's happened to me on /lit/.