/biz/ - Business & Finance

Should I buy T-bills? Can only buy like $10k worth right?

>>54860631
explain pls why this one is the big one and not the one from 2 weeks ago

>>54860631
World economy about to take a 15% haircut and the S&P regional banking index is rallying 5% today. I sense Judaism at work.

>>54860642
USTs are more volatile than crypto right now. If you like gambling, yeah buy bonds.

>>54860654
NTA, but if the one month return is high enough it can begin a chain reaction where capital flees the equity markets

>>54860654
The same tsunami has been heading towards us for the last 3 years.

>>54860683
the reason it went up is because money market funds liquidating due to people exiting to go buy stocks

>>54860683
Except no, because equities are rallying. This unprecedented volatility is telling us something is very wrong in credit markets, a la 2008.

Look at the uxvy options chain. That's what the market thinks volatility is going to do.

Call options expiring 3Q2023 imply UXVY at $6 and SQQQ at $45. Easy money.

>>54860642
lol classic biz response, everything about this screams stay away

>>54860631
somebody teach me how t-bills work? do i get a 5.374% gain in the next month or what does the month thing mean?

>>54860660
not really, fiat is about to be insanely devalued (Gov announced bond buybacks) so the bond value crashes while stocks and equities rise in anticipation

Nothing strange if you understand how things work, but yes we are headed for disaster

>>54860631
Still below inflation

>>54860683
>NTA
duh, IDs exist for a reason

>>54861176
Dumbass, you don't know what you're looking. God I hate /biz/.

>>54860642
$10k will pay out $50

>>54860642
>>54861223
First of all, nobody really buys short term bonds as investments and holds them to maturity. They're mainly used by institutions as collateral. They are essentially used as currency in the financial system. What this volatility is telling us is that there are seismic shockwaves running through the inner plumbing of the financial system.

I don't get it.

>>54860701
Except now the water is receding on the beach. The idiots are walking out further. Those in the know are running for dear life.

>>54861339
Good to see ya George.

You do a good job. You should cover how the regional banks failing is what Powell wants because once theyre all dead and only a few bigs remain (all of which are owned by Federal reserve owners) then the CDBC will be rolled out

>>54860631
Finally above inflation
Fed target achieved

>>54861114
5.374% is annual. In the month you'll get 1.05374^(1/12)=1.0043716 -> 0.43716% in the next month

>>54860631
I just hope the economy lasts long enough to see Damian Lillard get traded to the Bucks.

>>54861521
thanks for the answer. but what is the point in timeframes? one month to one year. do i get more gains if i buy one year bills or hold for longer ?

>>54861553
sorry, 20 may the new paradigm begins
probably war.

>>54861565
The timeframe represents how long you hold until you get the payment. Typically longer terms give higher yields because it requires longer locking. With the 1 month you can get your returns 1 month later and reinvest them. Doing this 12 months in a row would get you the 5.374% advertised rate, but also leaves you the option to take your money elsewhere at the end of each month. When the short term annual yields are higher than the long term, that's the """inverted yield curve""" everyone talks about that signals a recession

>>54861644
you are a helpful bro, bro.

>>54861685
I try to be a beacon of light on this shit board

>>54860631
Inflation is coin clipping.

>>54861075
>Call options expiring 3Q2023 imply UXVY at $6 and SQQQ at $45. Easy money
why easy money?

>>54861736
yield curve is pricing in SHTF equitypocalips within next 2 months right?

>>54861757
inflation is foreskin clipping, too

>>54861736
shine bright like a diamond.

>>54860642
I bought $250K 6 month T bills in January
It has issues, but it's plainly better than keeping cash in a bank

>>54861764
I can't speak to the timing. The yield curve has been inverted for months now so i won't speculate on the when. Only recently has the inversion on 2yr 10yr started to revert but still inverted for now. My guess is the recent news of US Treasury buying up longterm bonds is effectively YCC so we may see a return to non-inversion despite the underlying story being that recession is still on the way. For the record, I'm far from an expert on this stuff so just guesses

>>54860631
But can we be back bros?

Am I retarded or shouldn’t it make better sense to expect to get a higher yield for investing in longer term bonds?

Burgerbros..

It's over.

>>54862128
>inversion on 2yr 10yr started to revert
Yield curve steepening means the fun is starting. It's happening now.

>>54861762
Because UVXY will be at $6 and SQQQ will be at $45 at that time.

The us economy is about to collapse holy shit.
Not even remotely 2 moar weeks, more like tuesday bloodbath and complete capitulation/death.

>>54862128
my concern is because there has been a hump between 1-6 months for a while, but today is the first time that it looks like a slide straight down.

>>54862658
>Not even remotely 2 moar weeks, more like tuesday bloodbath and complete capitulation/death.
please expound/substantiate, good gentleman

>>54861287
>nobody buys shirt term tbills to hold to maturity
ha ha. Right. No one. That would be dumb to take your money out of a savings account earning 2.5% and put them in TBills earning 5.5%. Dumb dumb play for dummies.

>>54861339
George?
Good episode today.

>>54862844
Is anybody else concerned about this curve???

>>54863747
Clown world I just laugh

Can someone please explain what treasury bills are and why everyone keeps talking about them?

>>54861223
>10k * 5% = 50
American education right here

>>54863878
U.S. Treasury issues bonds that give a interest return when you buy them for a fixed period of time.

>>54863965
Divided by 12 you absolute dumb fuck nogglette, it’s a 30 day lockup
It’s actually 41.6 btw

>>54863878
It means people are running to safety. More bank runs and maybe risk on assets are gonna implode

>>54860631
this is one thing I don't understand: why is it that the 1-month having such a huge jump is indicative of anything bad? isn't less demand == lower yield? does this mean every institution that is basically required to invest in us debt is piling into longer-duration vehicles or what? what am I missing?

>>54864181
Not just that, the liquidity event at the banks will get worse because as the front end of the bond market crashes the yields become attractive enough to pull money out of the system.

>>54861157
Just to be extra clear, so relative to fiat will my assets (crypto/ & real estate) do better? Yes or no?

>>54861644
based bondbro, i only hold crypto plus some funds in a bank but thought about putting 5-10k into bonds. just starting to learn about it, T bonds I bonds, a family member did well year ago with CDs too.

>>54860631
More banks about to go bust next week, this is like a snowball rolling downhill getting bigger and bigger.

It's so fucking over it's not even funny

>>54862315
Under normal circumstances you are correct. However if the market is predicting the Fed to send rates to 0% you want to buy as much long term bonds as possible, which makes their return go down.

If the US government defaults on their debts, don't those treasuries become worthless? Because the way shit is going, I don't think this is an impossibility anymore.

>>54860675
They currency risk is a bigger concern than the bond price desu.

>>54864313
>isn't less demand == lower yield?
higher yield comes from lower demand
the yield has an inverse relationship to the price that is paid for the debt
The spookiness is because the 1 month yield shot up 120 basis points today and is still up 94 basis points.
It is also now significantly higher than the 2 month yield.
This means the debt market is pricing in something bigly bad happening bigly sooner than later.
Look at the yield curve >>54862844
and ask yourself, why would loaning your money to the US government for 30 years, give you so much less interest than if you loaned it to them for 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 6 months, or 1 year? The US government debt is supposed to be the safest debt in the world, right? RIGHT???

>>54860654
Bond market is saying the USA will default.

>>54864405
>More banks about to go bust next week, this is like a snowball rolling downhill getting bigger and bigger.
If the Fed continues to backstop deposits then we’re heading for an inflationary recession. If they let them fail entirely then deflationary recession. Either way the economy is fucked.

>>54865197
hyperinflation it is bros

>>54865197
What do we make of the idea of "going into a recession" when we've already been in one for at least a year and only started saying we're not in one because the definition of "recession" was literally rewritten as a kind of soft-backstop for the equity markets?

>>54865245
You can have recessions inside of recessions/depressions unironically.

>>54865255
>LE HECKIN RECESSION INCEPTION

>>54860631
Just put in an order for a little over 50k.
WAGMI

>>54860683
the fire rises

MMF are retarded and actually think the us might default. Fucking retards.

>>54860683
So is the treasury trying to beef up their books for the short term in anticipation of the aforementioned June 1 bankruptcy date, bringing a huge surplus of supply to the market causing the yield to spike?

>>54865506
yes

>>54864749
worthless and worth less are up to chance. it's not gonna be great, and it would mean other countries would likely offload their bonds

>>54862658
I wish this was true but i dont believe it

>>54864749
Why can't they just target short-term T-bills for default and continue paying long (10+ year) notes? It would prevent >>54866158 from happening and concentrate disruption in the front end of the yield curve

>>54861292
I analyzed the peepee and turns out it's actually poopoo

>>54864865
>This means the debt market is pricing in something bigly bad happening bigly sooner than later.
The silver squeeze has been squoze. They fudged the numbers at the Comex to make it look like they have reserves, but if you look at the long term trend, it just stopped dropping. Prior to the flatline it was pointing to May 2023 as the relative time that they would run out. It's over. Silverchads will inherit the earth. One tube of silver eagles will buy you a mansion, and the FWTDHWAHQAD as live in cocksleeves.

Yet again more gamestop bagholder cope.

>>54866124
>what adam curtis does to a motherfucker

>>54861075
>Look at the uxvy options chain
Where do I look at it

I have dogshit timing apparently, I just got into tbills a couple months ago after sitting on some I-Bonds since late 2021. Rates had been going up until the first auction I bought into which ended up being low-4%, then when it reinvested a month later the auction was fucking 4% which is basically what my savings account was giving me at the time. Now it's 4.2%. I'm going to pull the money out and just stick it back in savings if I get a shit rate the next time it reinvests. I'd definitely take 5%+.

>>54860675
What the fuck are you talking about? If I lock in a t bill then the rate is fixed.

>>54861287
>semetic shockwaves

>>54860631
The biggest one

>>54867359
you can sell your treasuries on the market lol

>>54863965
/12....he say monthly.....just go buy ICP

>>54864405
it is funny

>>54864338
good point

Dual canadian and australian here, so I also like to watch those bonds and banks. Can someone explain to me why the Canadian and australian banks don't seem to be vulnerable to the same liquidity problems? Or is it about to start?

Because from what I gather these banks also keep most of their deposits in the form of short-term gov treasuries and the combo of inflation plus rising interest rates would mean that emergency withdrawls are coming in at a loss. Where a I going wrong?

>>54860631
Not an American.

I get the TLDR of it. Liquidity crisis, market thinks the US is about the default.

How can we make money of this. Short banks with liquidity problems? Which ones do you think are most likely to go bust anons?

>>54867817
in australia most people are in debt 200% of their income and don't have any money to withdraw. it is peak usury here, complete domination, that is where the banks get their money from. what are they gonna do, pull all their non-existent savings out and then put them back in again at the end of the month when the mortgage payment is due? there is also like four banks in Australia with 95% of the market share. complete domination again.

>>54867817
GST acts like a burn mechanism for us.

Australia has been increasing taxes on alcohol and tobacco as well. Thanks to our minimum wage we can put some of the cost on the poor and they (I) can afford it.

>>54860631
I want an AI to be in charge of the world economy and I want everything tracked and logged NOW. 100% accountability is just over the horizon. Just two more development cycles.

>>54867851
None of the Australians I know are in debt, most of us don't have a mortgage. What debt?

>>54860675
>OH NO I CANT HOLD THEM FOR A MONTH !
lmao

>>54867893
I definitely know a few with big mortgages, or even car payments to make. I don't know ppl with credit card debt though appparently it's high

>>54867855
>>54867851
Another thing I don't get: one of the problems that beleaguers small US banks is that they are the ones holding the risky small-business loans. As the economy contracts and small businesses close it's the small uS banks that are holding the toxic loans.
Since Canada and australia have fewer banks it means it's the large banks here that hold these risky small business loans. So as small businesses close, wouldn't the large Cabadian and australian banks be stuck with the toxic assets?

As you know the FDIC has insured only the shittiest assets from the failing banks which means tax payers foot the bill.

It's happening
>yield curve totally fuckt
>crude oil futures showing severe backwardation, anticipating demand destruction
>monkey market funds might not even be safe
>I sure hope all your shares are in physical certificate form

>>54868155
>wouldn't the large Cabadian and australian banks be stuck with the toxic assets?
not too big of a deal when you consider how they already murdered small businesses with the lockdowns
Do you have any data for how much of their balance sheets are actually constituted by small business loans?

>>54867839
you make money off of this by learning real, unique skills that will survive the global currency crisis, so even when we start trading in gold, oil, or whatever neo-paleolithic currency we start to use, YOU will have something to contribute to society

>>54868155
Canada only has 5 big banks (maybe 6 if you're proud Quebec'er) that dominate the entire market. Small business declining doesn't hurt as much because they're so dominant everywhere. Many sources of revenue with diverse assets on the balance sheet.
You'd need a complete economic meltdown to injure them but even then the government just bail them out.

>>54867839
>not an american
lol, just buy a pallet of cheap 40% liquor and get ready to ride through this

>>54868533
>just buy a pallet of cheap 40% liquor
I thought they drink kombucha, kvass, and kefir outside of america

>>54867903
>IRON HANDS MARINES!!!
>HODL THE LINE!!!

>>54861075
Lol UVXY is going much higher than that. If we get another 2008 it'll 10x easily. Some bobo just bet 5 million that the VIX would hit 70 by September.

>>54867585
It's a bill nigger, it pays you back after a month. Why sell?

>>54862658
Comfy

>>54864342
>Just to be extra clear, so relative to fiat will my assets (crypto/ & real estate) do better? Yes or no?
That's what I would like to know

FEELS GOOD

>>54861736
People like you is why i frequent this shithole.

Have an image of my latest silver purchase. OC, just for you.

>>54860642
I have some currently interest-free debts I'm planning on paying off soon. Instead of having a savings account working towards that, I'm buying some of the higher rate bills at auction and holding them to maturity.
But, at the last auction the yield curve was inverted all the way back to the shortest duration though, so thats pretty weird. Since the higest rate is not the shortest time, I'm not sure which ones to buy now.

>>54871946
Thanks m8

>>54871946
>1960s francs
>silver
top fucking laughs

>>54861644
>>54861736
>>54871946
Bless you bro's for helping fellow anons. If only everyone was like this here, the alpha would be insane.

>>54871946
Wow, some fucking coins, you’re definitely going to make it!

>>54861644
>Canada only has 5 big banks (maybe 6 if you're proud Quebec'er) that dominate the entire market. Small business declining doesn't hurt as much because they're so dominant everywhere. Many sources of revenue with diverse assets on the balance sheet.
Thanks based bond bro but WHY does this signal a recession??? Like why would there be more supply or less demand on short term bonds, that makes no sense. Shouldnt the supply be fixed and the demand be higher for short term if we are heading toward a recession??? I'm so confused.

>>54870155
>Why sell?
>t. bagholder

>54872540
IQDELET, is that you?

>>54872540
1965 and earlier 5 francs coins were .835 grade silver, and contain 10.02 grams of silver each. Look it up yourself on numista.com if you doubt.
They also minted these even bigger .900 50 francs coins in the 70's.

>>54872883
1966-1969 5 francs were also made in silver, but in much lesser numbers.

>>54872814
If you have conviction about the market shitting the bed 20, 30, 40, or even more percent in the next few months, do you think you might be prone to making some moves that might yield more than the .458% you would get on your cash in a 1 month bond?
Also -> the insurance against US treasury defaulting is at the highest price it's ever been (1 year US sovereign credit default swaps), which means the market is the most scared about it they've ever been. If the government hard defaults, the bonds are worthless. If they soft default (print $ to pay), the bonds retain their nominal value but the real value will start rapidly deteriorating as everyone starts rushing to gold even faster than they already were.
Smart money is in gold and moving more into it.

>>54860683
And then cones back with interests. Literally.

>>54861287
so what you are trying to say is that i need to buy more gme asap. got it.

>>54860631
Someone explain why buying a bunch of 1 month tbills every week is a bad idea rn.

For context, here's what the chart looked like in 2007 compared to today. The treasury bill is higher today than it was in 2007.

>>54874350

the big one? is it going to go down or up?

>>54861516
>Finally above inflation
needs to at least 2x to get close

>>54874330
because dollars are worthless

>>54860642
Personal limit for T-Bills is $10 million. $10k is for Series I bond. Did you even bother to fucking Google it?

>>54860675
You're an idiot---the rate is fixed.

>>54861176
Idiot.

>>54861287
TreasuryDirect dot gov... anyone on the Internet can buy up to $10 million of T-Bills. They're great investments for your free cash instead of holding it in a savings account and, in fact, T-Bills are higher than bank CDs.

>>54861114
Those rates are annualized (APY), so divide the term by 52 weeks to get the real rate.

>>54864749
Yes, but despite the doomers on biz and pol, the Fed is not going to default any time soon, so your meager T-Bill investments will be safe.

>>54860631
Isn’t this likely just debt ceiling concerns?